WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS Week Twelve: 30 November-4 December 2009

ITEMS OF INTEREST

End of a season -- With the end of November on Monday, 30 November 2009, the autumn meteorological season in the Northern Hemisphere will end with the start of the meteorological winter season on Tuesday (1 December). Recall that meteorologists have elected to use a standard three-month grouping to identify each meteorological season. Hence, September, October and November are considered the autumn or fall meteorological season, while the months of December, January and February are the winter season. You will note that the winter solstice, marking the day where the length of daylight is least in the Northern Hemisphere is still three weeks away, falling on Monday, 21 December 2009. Since the lowest temperatures typically fall in mid to late January, the meteorological winter tends to be centered on the coldest time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.
In addition, the end of November also marks the end of the official hurricane seasons in the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, along with the eastern and central North Pacific basins.
The 2009 hurricane seasons reviewed -- A quick review of this year's tropical cyclone statistics for official 2009 hurricane season has been made for both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]
Southern islands produce wave cloud patterns -- An image obtained from the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite early last week shows an interesting interference pattern in the cloud deck caused by winds passing over and around the peaks in the South Sandwich Island chain in the South Atlantic Ocean. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Tropical cyclone climatologies of North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific released -- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) recently released an updated and revised edition of its "Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1851-2006." While a paper copy of this book is available for a cost from NHC, a 243-pg pdf file of this edition can be downloaded for free. NHC also released the first edition of "Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, 1949-2006." In addition to a paper copy is available for sale, a free 164-page pdf file is available. Both of these climatologies have numerous graphics that show long-term changes in tropical cyclone frequency in the two basins.
October drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its October 2009 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately nine percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of October, while 33 percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
The 2008 hurricane seasons reviewed -- Although tropical storms and hurricanes could continue to form, the official 2008 hurricane season in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific ended yesterday Sunday, 30 November 2008. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]
For those who are interested in obtaining historic hurricane information, the "Historical Hurricanes Mapping & Analysis Tool" developed by NOAA allows the search and display of detailed tropical cyclone data and coastal population trends based upon a data set that runs from 1851 to 2007.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

New report on climate change science released -- A new synthesis report entitled "The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science" was recently released by 26 of the world's foremost climate scientists that provides an assessment of the latest findings concerning global climate change since December 2005. These scientists conclude that climate change is accelerating at an unexpected rate, requiring urgent reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases. [NASA GSFC/JPL]
East Antarctic ice thaws rapidly -- Using gravity measurement data from the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) mission, a team of scientists from the University of Texas at Austin has found an unexpectedly large ice loss from the East Antarctic ice sheet within the last three years. [NASA JPL]
Attempts made to fix ailing QuikSCAT satellite -- During the last week, engineers and mission managers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory are assessing possible options for continuing operations of the agency's 10-year old QuikSCAT satellite because of a failure in the antenna mechanism that permits transmission of ocean surface wind data obtained by the mission's scatterometer instrument. [NASA JPL]
Forest cover changes in South America documented by satellite-- High-resolution images of Paraguay obtained from instruments onboard Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 satellites show the decrease in the size of forests in this South American country between 1990 and 2000. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Slower absorption of carbon dioxide by oceans seen -- Using atmospheric carbon dioxide data collected from three observing stations over the last 50 years, a geophysicist at Yale University has determined that the interannual lag between global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased, meaning that the oceans may have lost some of their ability to absorb carbon dioxide. He claims that the oceans currently absorb approximately 40 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere by human activity. [Yale University] In a related investigation, scientists with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and their colleagues who are participating in the Global Carbon Project have developed ocean-model simulations for estimating the annual fluxes of carbon dioxide between the atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs. These researchers have found that carbon dioxide emissions have increased by more 3 .4 percent per year since 2000. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution]
An All-Hazards Monitor--This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes -- A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

The molecular basis for global warming studied -- Researchers from Purdue University and NASA's Ames Research Center have determined that at least a dozen of mainly synthetically produced chemicals, appear to be efficient at blocking infrared radiation in those sections of the electromagnetic radiation spectrum normally called the "atmospheric window." Because of their molecular structure involving halogen bonds, these synthetically produced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and nitrogen fluorides, would be even more efficient at enhancing the warming potential associated with the greenhouse effect than even carbon dioxide and methane. [Purdue University News]
Land-management changes could eliminate European carbon sinks -- A group of European researchers collaborating in the European Union-Integrated Project CarboEurope has compiled the first comprehensive greenhouse gas balance of Europe. One of the findings from this project indicates that intensive land-management could increase emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, resulting in an elimination of Europe’s terrestrial sink of greenhouse-gases. [Max Planck Institute]
Model for estimating underground carbon developed -- Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have developed a new analytical method for modeling the capacity of potential underground carbon-dioxide reservoirs and assessing the risks of leakage of these reservoirs into the atmosphere. [EurekAlert!]

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE BIOSPHERE

Time of day important to drought-stressed trees -- Researchers at Ontario's University of Toronto have found that forest trees stressed by drought appear to a genetic code that permits them to respond differently throughout the day to environmental stimuli in an effort to survive the stress caused by a lack of moisture. [EurekAlert!]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Regional warm and cold intervals of the past appear driven by climate phenomena -- Using a variety of climate proxy indicators, researchers from Penn State University, Roger Williams University, the University of Massachusetts, the University of Arizona, NASA's and the National Center for Atmospheric Research have reconstructed spatial patterns of ocean and land surface temperature over the last 1500 years. These researchers have found that regional patterns of temperature change appear related to natural phenomena such as El Niño/La Niña events and the "North Atlantic Oscillation." [EurekAlert!]
Super-volcano in Sumatra helped deforest India during Pleistocene -- Researchers at the University of Illinois Urban-Champaign and Australia's University of Adelaide. Williams report that the super-eruption of the Toba volcano on the island of Sumatra approximately 73,000 years ago appears to have spread volcanic ash across the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, India and the South China Sea, resulting in an "instant ice age" with a drop in temperatures by as much as 28 Fahrenheit degrees. The reduced sunlight and the lower temperatures appear to have been responsible for large-scale deforestation across central India. [EurekAlert!]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Public health impacts of climate change addressed -- A recent series by the medical journal The Lancet has highlighted studies on four topics involving climate change (household energy, transportation, electricity generation, and agricultural food production). Researchers with the US National Institutes of Health and the University of California, Berkeley proposed new strategies that would promote human health and at the same time reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Several of these include low-emission stove technology, increased use of winds for electric power generation and reduction in vehicle use through increased walking or cycling. [EurekAlert!] [EurekAlert!]
Nations with competition in crop production could fare better as climate changes -- In a study of agricultural production in 21 countries, economists at the Oregon State University conclude that the richer nations with competitive crop production and few trade barriers would appear to have a much better chance of surviving changes in climate and extreme weather conditions that would cause volatility in grain and oilseed crop yields. [Oregon State University]
Increased chance of African civil wars could result from climate change -- Researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, Stanford University, New York University and Harvard University warn that the possibility of civil war in sub-Saharan Africa could increase within the next two decades because of increases in temperature across the region associated with large-scale changes in the climate. They also urge accelerated support for new and expanded policies to assist with African adaptation to climate change. [EurekAlert!]
Home energy costs are drastically cut by retrofits -- Researchers at the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory are planning to conduct a series of research projects in which "deep energy retrofits" would be applied to ten selected homes across East Tennessee so as to improve the homes' energy efficiency between 30 and 50 percent. These retrofits involve renovations to existing structures using the latest in energy-efficient materials and technologies. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory]
"Global warming" may be unstoppable -- An atmospheric scientist at the University of Utah claims that the increases in carbon dioxide emissions cannot be stopped or stabilized unless a collapse in the global economy occurs or the change to non-carbon power production equivalent to the building of one new nuclear power plant per day. He also warns that current energy conservation efforts are well below what is needed, and can accelerate energy consumption. [EurekAlert!]
Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Evidence of an ancient Martian ocean found -- Scientists from Northern Illinois University and the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston have produced a new and more detailed global map of the valley networks on Mars, which revealed pattern providing added evidence for an ocean covering much of Mars' northern hemisphere and a past climate with sufficient precipitation. [EurekAlert!]

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Exposure to air pollution that would include a variety of gas species and particulate matter could result in health-related problems, especially those people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in climate could increase air pollutant exposure in several ways. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in heat waves are often stagnant, which reduce dispersion and create environmental conditions for photochemical reactions that increases ground-level ozone concentrations. Increased ozone has been shown to cause reduction in lung function. These heat waves associated with stagnant weather patterns would also increase fuel combustion for power generation needed for air conditioning. Changes in climate could also affect emissions of natural air pollutants and airborne allergens.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

While a range of negative health impacts would be possible from future climate change, adaptation would likely help protect the majority of the nation's population. This adaptation would entail maintenance of the public health and community infrastructure across the nation. Adequate water treatment systems would help curb waterborne diseases, while health care facilities and emergency shelters would help minimize the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

30 November 1976...MacLeod Harbor, AK reported a precipitation total for November of 70.99 inches, which established a state record for any month of the year. (The National Weather Summary)
30 November 1991...Minneapolis, MN ended the month with 46.9 inches of snow, the most ever for November and for any month. Although the official start of winter was still 3 weeks away, the city had already surpassed the normal seasonal snowfall record with 55.1 inches since 1 October (normal for the entire winter is 49.2 inches). (Intellicast)
1 December 1831...The coldest December of record in the northeastern U.S. commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington, VT the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum)
1 December 1913...A six day Front Range snowstorm began, ultimately producing 45.7 inches of snow at Denver, CO, the biggest single snowstorm on record for that city. It produced a record total of 46 inches at Denver, CO. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
3-10 December 1926...Record rain fell on Yuma, AZ over a one-week period. On the 4^th 1.10 inches of rain fell, and by the 10^th a total of 4.43 inches had fallen, to set an all-time December monthly record. The mean annual precipitation for Yuma is only 3.38 inches. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
3 December 1982...Big Fork, AR received 14.06 inches of rain, setting a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the state. (NCDC)
4 December 1982...The temperature in New York City's Central Park reached 72 degrees to establish a record high for December. The month as a whole was also the warmest of record. (The Weather Channel)
5 December 1941...The temperature at Enosburg Falls soared to 72 degrees to establish a state record for Vermont for the month of December. (The Weather Channel)
6 December 1950...Duluth, MN had their greatest 24-hour snowfall when 25.4 inches fell. (Intellicast)

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