DataStreme ECS WEEK ELEVEN: 15-19 November 2010

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Celebrate Geography Awareness Week and GIS Day -- This upcoming week has been identified as Geography Awareness Week 2010: Freshwater. National Geography Awareness Week, launched by presidential proclamation in 1987, is designed to draw attention to geo-literacy and " the importance of geographic understanding in ensuring our nation's economic competitiveness, national security, environmental sustainability, and the livability of our communities in the 21st century." This year's theme is Freshwater, which appears to be one of the defining issues of the 21st century.
  This coming Wednesday, 17 November 2010, has been declared GIS Day, an event designed to create geographic awareness around the world using geographic information systems (GIS). This event, with the theme "Discovering the World through GIS", is principally sponsored by the National Geographic Society, the Association of American Geographers, University Consortium for Geographic Information Science, the United States Geological Survey, The Library of Congress, Sun Microsystems, Hewlett-Packard, and ESRI. [GIS Day] [Note: The Central Illinois Forecast Office of the National Weather Service Forecast Office at Lincoln, IL has provided a portal describing examples of GIS being employed by the National Weather Service.]
• Watching a meteor shower --
This year's Leonid meteor showers that should peak during the late night hours of this coming Wednesday (17 November) night and Thursday morning. Approximately 15 meteors per hour were expected. The Leonid meteor showers, which appear to emanate from the constellation Leo, occur in November as Earth passes through the debris trail from Comet Tempel-Tuttle. Unfortunately the viewing conditions will not be the ideal, as a waxing gibbous (half-full) moon will not set until the early morning hours of Thursday [Astronomy]
• NOAA scientists receive prestigious awards --
• In a ceremony held last week in Paris, Susan Solomon, Ph.D., senior scientist at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, became a knight 'chevalier' of the Legion of Honor by the French Republic in honor of her scientific achievements, including pioneering research that helped explain the cause of the "ozone hole" and her leadership as co-chair of Working Group 1 for the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. [NOAA News]
• Three NOAA scientists will receive the 2009 Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers, which represents the highest honor bestowed by the US government on outstanding scientists and engineers in the early stages of their careers. The recipients are:
  J. Christopher Taylor, an ecologist at the National Center for Coastal Ocean Science’s Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research in Beaufort, NC, for leading research in the development and use of new underwater sonar technologies that make coastal ecosystem assessments more efficient, safe and cost effective;
  Matthew Menne, a physical scientist at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC, for using innovative methods to develop high-quality climate data sets, including identifying and correcting inaccuracies in U.S. temperature records; and
  Charles Stock, an oceanographer at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, NJ, for the use of computer models to better understand a range of climate and ecosystem dynamics, such as predicting harmful algal blooms and how food webs vary from region to region. [NOAA News]

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• State and city weather extremes for September 2010 -- The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has posted a listing of some of the notable extremes in temperature, precipitation and other weather elements across the nation for the recently completed month of September in "Selected U.S. City and State Extremes for September 2010." Note that this site may be updated during the following several weeks as more data are received and analyzed.
• Review of October weather and climate across the US --
Preliminary monthly temperature data for October 2010 from across the nation have led scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center to report that this past month was the eleventh warmest October since 1895, when comprehensive national climate records began. More than half of the states reported statewide temperatures that above or much above 20th century averages. Wyoming had its fourth warmest October in 116 years of record. Preliminary precipitation records for October 2010 indicate that the month was slightly drier than the 20th century average, with the monthly average precipitation for the 48 coterminous states being approximately one quarter of an inch below average. Although several Western and Northeastern States had much above average precipitation, many of the states across Southeast, the Mid-South and the Midwest recorded below to much below average statewide precipitation totals during October 2010, with Florida experiencing its driest October since 1895. Texas, Missouri and Indiana also reported much below average precipitation. Nevada reported its wettest October on record. [NOAA News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• Near real-time snow cover monitored by European satellites -- The Finnish Meteorological Institute have been instrumental in developing the European Space Agency's (ESA) GlobSnow project, which uses data collected by satellites to produce up-to-date information on global snow cover and snow depth, within a short time after a snowfall. The data produced by satellites are used in the forecasting of floods and in climate research. [Finnish Meteorological Institution]
• Role of melt in monitored in Arctic sea ice loss --
Researchers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory who analyzed data collected by NASA and European Space Agency satellites of Arctic sea ice claim that the amount of older and thicker "multiyear" sea ice lost from the Arctic Ocean between 1993 and 2009 is due primarily to melting, rather than to export. [NASA JPL]
• An All-Hazards Monitor --
This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
• Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes --
A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

• Threshold sea surface temperatures for tropical convection and tropical cyclones rise – Researchers at the University of Hawaii at Manoa report that as the tropical oceans have warmed over the last 30 years, the threshold sea surface temperature required to initiate tropical convection and tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes) has been rising at the same rate. [EurekAlert!]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

• Ancient global warming event increased tropical forest diversity – Based upon pollen analysis, a scientist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and colleagues have determined that tropical rainforests flourished during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (approximately 56 million years ago) when temperatures were 3 to 5 Celsius degrees higher than currently and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were 2.5 times present levels. [EurekAlert!]
• Life in San Francisco Bay influenced by offshore factors --
A new US Geological Survey study reports that marine life in California’s San Francisco Bay has thrived over the past decade in association with two climatic patterns known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation originating far out in the Pacific Ocean. Apparently, these two atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns strongly influences the coastal ocean, which in turn influences biological communities, which ultimately affects water quality in the San Francisco Bay. [USGS Newsroom]
• Iron stimulates toxin-producing algae blooms in open ocean waters –
Marine scientists the University of California, Santa Cruz, Louisiana State University and the University of South Carolina have found that toxin-producing algae are not only found in the coastal waters, but in the near surface waters of the open ocean, where the addition of iron from natural or artificial sources stimulates rapid growth of the harmful algae. [EurekAlert!]
• Ocean acidification endangers struggling coral reefs –
Scientists at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science warn that future ocean acidification due to increased carbon dioxide levels could compromise the successful fertilization, larval settlement and survivorship of the already threatened Caribbean and Florida reef Elkhorn corals. [EurekAlert!]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• Bolivian capital could experience a catastrophic drought – Scientists from the Florida Institute of Technology warn that catastrophic drought could develop in the near future for La Paz, the capital city of Bolivia. They base their conclusions following an investigation of fossilized pollen, which provides a 370,000-year record of climate and vegetation change in Andean ecosystems. [NSF]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

• Red soil in southern Europe has origins in African dust – Researchers from Spain’s Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona and their American colleagues have conducted mineralogical and chemical analysis to ascertain that mineral dust carried from the Sahara and Sahel in Africa across Mediterranean regions such as Mallorca and Sardinia between 12,000 and 25,000 years ago represents the origin of that latter region’s "terra rossa" (red soil). [EurekAlert!]
• Time line for skeletal animals in fossil record updated –
Discoveries by geologists at the University of California, Santa Barbara have revised the timing of the profusion of animals with shells and skeletons at approximately 542 million years ago, often referred to as the "Cambrian Explosion." Rather than an explosion over a short time, the better dating techniques indicate the increase in skeletal animals occurred over 20-million years. [EurekAlert!]
• Exploring ancient extreme global warming --
Scientists from Utrecht University in the Netherlands, along with at the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and the United Kingdom's University of Southampton have reconstructed variations in carbon dioxide levels from sediment cores extracted by the Ocean Drilling Program from the seafloor near Tasmania, Australia. They determined that variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide at approximately 40 million years ago were highly correlated with changes in global temperature, during a time known as the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum. [EurekAlert!]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Guidelines issued for cutting greenhouse gases --Last week, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued the first-ever federal guidelines for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the nation's industrial sources. One of the focuses will be on increasing energy efficiency. These new guidelines will go into effect at the beginning of next year. [USA Today]
• Available wind energy could be reduced by increased global temperatures –
A climate researcher at the University of Texas at Austin claims that rising global temperatures appear to reduce prevailing wind speeds because of a weakened temperature and pressure gradients between tropical and polar latitudes. These reduced winds would reduce the available wind energy for power at a time when concerted efforts are being made to switch to this renewable energy source. [EurekAlert!]
• Drinking water could be contaminated by leaking underground carbon dioxide storage –
A biology professor at Duke University warns that based on analysis of core samples taken from four aquifers, leaking underground carbon dioxide storage facilities designed to sequester this greenhouse gas could contaminate drinking water aquifers near the surface and increase levels of contaminants in the water tenfold or more in some places. [EurekAlert!]
• Website for human dimensions of climate change --
An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

• Secrets of ancient Martian and terrestrial atmospheres may be revealed -- Chemists at the University of California, San Diego have discovered a chemical reaction on tiny atmospheric particulates that may provide a glimpse at what the atmospheres of the Earth and Mars were like hundreds of millions years ago. Their discovery also provides a simple chemical explanation for the unusual carbonate inclusions found in a meteorite from Mars that landed on Earth. [University of California San Diego News Center]
• Earthweek --
Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Evolution of Climate Models

Climate scientists have been building increasingly sophisticated, mathematical climate models to serve two main purposes: test the sensitivity of the climate to altered conditions and simulate climate over time, either back into the past or forward into the future. The simplest, early type of climate model (zero dimensional) was the "energy balance model", which provides an average planetary temperature from incoming and outgoing radiation. A one-dimensional energy balance model determines the surface temperature from the energy balance at individual latitude belts.

More complex models involve the physical equations of motion (gas laws, thermodynamics and radiation interactions) subject to climate forcings, the boundary conditions of solar radiation, surface properties and atmospheric composition. As computers improved, models have included a three-dimensional oceanic circulation ("atmosphere-ocean coupling"), then interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere and geosphere, with climate feedback mechanisms involving the exchanges of heat and water. Finally, models have been able to incorporate the improved knowledge of the biogeochemical processes. Climate models calculate variables such as temperature at individual points within the three-dimensional grid of cells across the Earth's surface and vertically through the atmosphere, ocean, ice and land. A tradeoff exists between the number of grid points (the spatial resolution) and the number of numerical computations. Time and space accuracy costs increased computational time and expense.

The development of numerical weather prediction models during the 1960s and 1970s spurred the development of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate. One of the early atmospheric GCMs was developed at Princeton University's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). By the 1990s, comprehensive climate models were being perfected with three-dimensional oceanic circulation. Ultimately, the term GCM could be used to refer to a Global Climate Model that represents the major climate system components (atmosphere, ocean, land surface and polar ice) and their interactions. The Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research is one of the most comprehensive climate models currently available. This model has been used to determine the future temperature response for several scenarios concerning the release of greenhouse gases through the 21st century as proposed by the IPCC reports.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. General circulation models are generally [(less), (more)] sophisticated than energy balance models.
2. Increasing the spatial resolution of a global climate model causes the computational time to [(increase),(decrease),(remain the same)].

Historical Events:

• 16 November 1958...More than six inches (6.4 inches) of snow fell at Tucson, AZ, one of the biggest ever for that location. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 16 November 1959...The most severe November cold wave in U.S. history was in progress. A weather observing station located 14 miles northeast of Lincoln, MT reported a reading of 53 degrees below zero, which established an all-time record low temperature for the nation for the month of November. Their high that day was one degree above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 17 November 1953...The temperature at Minneapolis, MN reached 71 degrees, their warmest reading of record for so late in the autumn. (The Weather Channel)
• 18 November 1955...An early season cold snap finally came to an end. Helena, MT experienced 138 consecutive hours of subzero temperatures, including a reading of 29 below zero, which surpassed by seven degrees their previous record for the month of November. Missoula, MT broke their November record by 12 degrees with a reading of 23 below zero, and Salt Lake City, UT smashed their previous November record of zero degrees with a reading of 14 degrees below zero. Heavy snow in the Great Basin closed Donner Pass, CA and total crop damage from the cold wave amounted to eleven million dollars. (David Ludlum)
• 19 November 1957...Nineteen inches of snow covered the ground at Cresco, IA, a record November snow depth for the state. (The Weather Channel)
• 19 November 1996...A 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the state of Oregon was established when 11.65 in. of rain fell at Port Orford. (NCDC)
• 20 November 1914...The high temperature of 28 degrees at Atlanta, GA was their earliest daily high below the freezing mark. (The Weather Channel)
• 20 November 1979...A blizzard struck Cheyenne, WY producing a record 19.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a record total of 25.6 inches in forty hours. Strong winds created huge drifts stopping all transportation. (19^th-21^st) (The Weather Channel)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2010, The American Meteorological Society.