WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK 8: 27-31 October 2014

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Options for climate change policy found to be well characterized -- A new study conducted by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Policy Program indicates that policy options for climate change risk management are straightforward and have well understood strengths and weaknesses. The study identifies four categories of climate change risk management: 1) mitigation; 2) adaptation; 3) geoengineering or climate engineering; and 4) knowledge-base expansion. Recommendations are also advanced. [American Meteorological Society Policy Program]
Accessing the national climatographies -- NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has produced numerous climatographies that are quantitative descriptions of climate that include tables and charts portraying the characteristic values of selected climatic elements at a station or over an area. Some of these climatographies provide a variety of daily, monthly and annual normal climate data for agricultural, transportation and other interests. This week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth provides the links to selected climatographies from NCDC.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

September 2013 weather and climate for the nation and globe reviewed -- Scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data collected from around the world during the month of September 2014. They found that this recently concluded month was the warmest September since sufficiently detailed global climate records began in 1880 as the combined global land and ocean surface temperature for September 2014 was the highest on record, being 1.30 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) September average of 59.0 degrees Fahrenheit. The scientists also noted that the combined global land and oceans surface temperature for the first nine months of 2014 has tied the corresponding January through September span for 1998. When considered separately, the temperature over the oceans last month was the highest for any September since 1880, while the average land temperature was the fourth highest for any September. Sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean were at record levels in September although an El Niño event has not been officially declared. The researchers at the National Snow and Ice Data Center noted the areal extent of the Arctic sea ice for September 2014 was the sixth smallest since satellite surveillance began in 1979. On the other hand, the extent of the Antarctic sea ice was the largest in the 36-year satellite record. [NOAA/NCDC State of the Climate] A global map of Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for September 2013 is available from NCDC.
The scientists at NCDC also noted that the September 2014 marked the fourth month this year that was ranked as the warmest since 1880 according to their time-series of global land and ocean surface temperature. A display of the spatial distribution of monthly average temperature anomalies for each of the first nine months of the year is also provided. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Deke Arndt, Chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch at NCDC, identifies "Five things to know about 2014 global temperatures." [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

New polar-orbiting weather satellite maneuvered to avoid "space junk" -- Four weeks ago the mission team managing the NOAA-NASA's Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite had to reposition this three-year old polar-orbiting environmental satellite in order to avoid a potentially catastrophic head-on collision with a piece of space debris that was travelling at nearly 17,000 mph. [NOAA News]
Monitoring the planetary albedo (reflectivity) -- Sensors known as Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System that have flown onboard a series of the nation's environmental satellites have been monitoring the planet Earth's albedo (or reflectivity) over the last 17 years. Analysis of these data indicates the planetary albedo has not experienced long-term changes, although short-term fluctuations have been observed. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE FORCING

Assessing the role of the ocean on recent global temperature increases -- Professor Richard P. Allan of the United Kingdom's University of Reading and lead investigator of the Diagnosing Earth's Energy Pathways in the Climate system (DEEP-C) project recently wrote a guest post on the NOAA Climate.gov newsletter in which he describes the role of the oceans in affecting the rise in global temperature over the last four decades. He points to how La Niña events and the absence of substantial El Niño events within the last decade have contributed to a recent slowing this global surface temperature increase. NOAA Climate.gov News]
Past climate change attributed to both ocean and atmosphere -- Researchers at Rutgers University have found that the large-scale circulation of the ocean plays an equally important role in regulating Earth's climate as its atmosphere. Their findings were based on ocean sediment core samples between 2.5 million to 3.3 million years old. They note that the major cooling of Earth along with the increase in continental ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2.7 million years ago coincided with a shift in the circulation of the ocean, which sequesters heat and carbon dioxide in the Atlantic Ocean. This shift in the ocean conveyor system would transport the added heat and carbon dioxide through the deep ocean from north to south until it is released in the Pacific. [Rutgers University News]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Changing climate affects winter bird populations across eastern North America -- Using two decades of data on birds across eastern North America collected by thousands of "citizen scientists," University of Wisconsin-Madison scientists have found that bird species that rarely wintered across the Northeastern States nearly 20 years ago are now remaining in these northern regions due to warmer winters. The wintering data on 38 species of birds were from Cornell University Laboratory of Ornithology's Project FeederWatch. [University of Wisconsin-Madison News]
Microbe found to be a key in climate change -- An international team of scientists from the US, Sweden and Australia claim that a recently discovered species of soil microbe, currently called Methanoflorens stordalenmirensis, found in permafrost soils of northern Sweden appears to play a key role in climate change as it liberates vast amounts of methane when these permafrost soils thaw due to increasing global temperatures. [University of Arizona News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Water and drought reaches top of California residents' worries list -- A recent statewide poll conducted of California residents by the Public Policy Institute of California reveals for the first time since the 1998 start to this survey that "water" and "drought" essentially topped the answers to the "most important issue" facing the Golden State. With the persistence of a three-year drought causing major statewide problems, these issues jumped from seven percent in the January 2014 survey to 26 percent in September. [KQED Science]
Nation's environmental stewardship is influenced by its "personality" -- Research conducted at the University of Toronto reveals that those countries showing higher levels of compassion and openness tend to score better in terms of environmental sustainability. This study was based upon the examination of nation-level personality traits from a database of over 12,000 people in 51 countries that were then used to predict scores on the Environmental Performance Index developed at Yale and Columbia Universities. The researchers conclude that psychological factors can help shape a nation's environmental policies. [Rotman School of Management University of Toronto]
New online visualization tool designed to aid Great Lakes community planning -- NOAA's Ocean Service has recently unveiled a new online-visualization and mapping tool called "Lake-Level Viewer" that is designed to help community planners and decision makers along the 4900 miles of US shorelines of the Great Lakes plan for and adapt to changes in climate and lake-water levels. [NOAA News]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Feedback in Earth's Climate System

In Earth's climate system, feedback consists of a process where a change in one variable interacts with other variables of the system to alter that original variable. If the change reinforces the original quantity, it is known as a positive feedback. If the change suppresses the original quantity, it is a negative feedback. Feedbacks in Earth's climate system are significant--thought to be responsible for more than half the global warming expected from human activities.

Consider examples of positive and negative feedback. A warming trend in climate is likely to accelerate the rate of melting of snow and ice, producing more bare ground that absorbs more solar radiation, further raising the air temperature. A cooling trend prolongs snow and ice cover in spring and summer so that less solar radiation is absorbed, more reflected to space, bringing about additional cooling. In both cases, feedback is positive because the initial change in temperature is amplified.

Consider an example of negative feedback. While feedbacks among temperature, cloud cover, and radiation are not well understood and depend upon circumstances (e.g., type and height of clouds), they could be either positive or negative. It is thought that a warming trend in climate should increase the rate of evaporation of water from Earth's surface and thereby increase low cloud cover. A thicker and more extensive low-cloud cover reflects more solar radiation to space thereby inhibiting a further rise in surface temperature. Hence, this negative feedback would dampen the initial temperature change.

Understanding feedback in the climate system is essential for modeling and predicting climate change. If some agent or mechanism alters the climate, then feedback may either amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the change in climate. As demonstrated later in this course, many agents and mechanisms can bring about climate change (e.g., variations in solar energy output, regular fluctuations in Earth-Sun geometry). While these climate forcing agents and mechanisms drive climatic change, processes within the planetary climate system involving feedbacks significantly impact the magnitude of climate change.

Overall, which type of feedback prevails in Earth's climate system, positive or negative? A system in which positive feedback prevails is unstable. For Earth, this would move the climate regime toward an extreme characterized by excessive cold that would encase the planet in snow and ice ("snowball" or "ice ball" Earth) or toward the other extreme resulting in much higher temperatures--the product of a runaway greenhouse effect. Although Earth's climate has varied considerably over the billions of years that constitute geologic time, it appears likely that Earth's climate system has been nearly stable with negative feedbacks generally compensating for positive feedbacks.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

The magnitude of a climate change [(largely depends upon)(is independent of)] positive and negative feedback phenomena operating in Earth's climate system.
Through much of Earth history, it appears that [(positive feedbacks)(negative feedbacks)(a general balance between positive and negative feedbacks)] have (has) prevailed.

Historical Events:

27 October 1929...A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)
28 October 1936...The temperature at Layton, NJ dipped to 9 degrees above zero to establish a state record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)
28 October 1991...Yakima, WA recorded 2.4 inches of snow, equaling the record for October. (Intellicast)
29 October 1917...The temperature at Soda Butte, WY the mercury plunged to 33 degrees below zero, an U.S. record for the month of October. (David Ludlum)
29 October 1991...Bismarck, ND received 15.9 inches of snow on the 28^th and 29^th. This brought the October snowfall total to 23.5 inches, a new record. (Intellicast)
30 October 1925...Nashville, TN was blanketed with an inch of snow, their earliest measurable snow of record. (The Weather Channel)
31 October 1987...Yakima, WA reported measurable rainfall for the first time since 18 July. The 103-day long dry spell was their longest of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
31 October 1991...A severe winter storm dubbed the "Great Halloween Mega Storm" struck the upper Midwest. Minnesota bore the brunt of the storm. By the time the storm finally ended on 2 November, Duluth received 37 inches of snow and Minneapolis 28 inches, which were new all time records for single storm totals. These two cities received nearly half their normal seasonal snows in this one storm. In Wisconsin, 35 inches of snow was reported at Superior and 30 inches at Iron River. (Intellicast)
31 October 1993...Corpus Christi, TX dropped to 28 degrees to set the October (and November) record. Brownsville dropped to a monthly record 35 degrees. (Intellicast)
2 November 1946...A heavy wet snow began to cover the Southern Rockies. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, and a three-day snowstorm began at Denver, CO. By the time it ended, this storm had dropped 31 inches, making it the second greatest snowfall ever in city history and causing roofs to collapse. (David Ludlum)
2 November 1961...The temperature at Atlanta, GA reached 84 degrees to establish a record for November. (The Weather Channel)
2 November 1966...A storm brought 18 inches of snow to Celia, KY in 24 hours. It tied the state 24-hour snowfall record first established at Bowling Green. (The Weather Channel)
2 November 1988...A very intense low pressure system brought heavy rain, snow, and high winds, to parts of the northeastern U.S. Portland, ME established a record for November with 4.52 inches of rain in 24 hours, and winds along the coast of Maine gusted to 74 mph at Southwest Harbor. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Return to DataStreme ECS website