WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK 8: 24-28 October 2016

Report from the Field:

• Dr. Steve LaDochy, a DataStreme LIT Leader and meteorology professor from Cal State University, Los Angeles, reported on this past week's heat wave across Southern California that resulted in daily high temperature records being reached on Thursday at Long Beach Airport (98 degrees), Camarillo Airport (98 degrees), Los Angeles International Airport (97 degrees) and Oxnard NWS Forecast Office (97 degrees). He also mentioned that the small rain that fell last Monday broke a 165-day stretch of dry weather. So, "38 million folks in the state and not much water. Its hot...but its a dry heat (like an oven)." Finally he reported that all schools in the region participated in "drop, cover and hold" exercises as part of the annual Great LA Shakeout, which prepares for "the Big One" - a hypothetical earthquake of at least a magnitude 8 that is expected to occur someplace along the San Andreas Fault.

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Nation's precipitation superlatives are featured – Following a corresponding blog on temperature extremes across the nation, Deke Arndt, Chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), wrote a Beyond the Data blog entitled "Back to the Basics: Precipitation Patterns" in which he identifies the wettest and driest places around the nation, obtaining a set of Top 10 lists provided by NCEI's "US Climate Extremes" interactive webpage. The ten snowiest places in the US were also listed. [NOAA Climate.gov News] (Editor's Note: The US Climate Extremes webpage is an interesting site that should be explored. An overview is provided with more background information. EJH)
• Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2016 Campaign is underway -- The eleventh in the series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2016 will continue through Sunday, 31 October. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Pegasus in the Northern Hemisphere and Grus in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next series in the 2016 campaign is scheduled for 20-30 November 2016. [GLOBE at Night]
• New Earth Observatory magazine with stories just for kids -- NASA's Earth Observatory mission recently announced the launch of the first issue of the agency's newest magazine EO (for Earth Observatory) Kids, which is designed to bring engaging science stories to a younger generation. Hands-on activities and experiments are also featured. This first issue focuses upon fresh water. [NASA Earth Observatory]
• Debunking the legend of the woolly bear caterpillar and winter severity -- The long-held folklore legend that the size of the band on the midsection of the woolly bear caterpillar in early autumn can be used to forecast the severity of the upcoming winter is described and shown to be a myth. [National Weather Service Forecast Office, La Crosse WI]
• Accessing the national climatographies -- NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has produced numerous climatographies that are quantitative descriptions of climate that include tables and charts portraying the characteristic values of selected climatic elements at a station or over an area. Some of these climatographies provide a variety of daily, monthly and annual normal climate data for agricultural, transportation and other interests. This week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth provides the links to selected climatographies from NCDC.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• September 2016 weather and climate for the globe reviewed -- Scientists at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data collected from around the world during the month of September 2016. They found:
• The global combined land and ocean average surface temperature for September 2016 was 2.32 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century average (1901-2000) for the month, which makes last month the second warmest September since a sufficiently dense network of global temperature records began in 1880. The September combined global temperature record was 0.07 Fahrenheit degrees below the monthly record temperature, set only one year ago (September 2015).
  When considered separately, the land surface surface temperature for this recently concluded month also was the highest September temperature in the 137-year record, with a monthly temperature that was approximately 2.32 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century average. This new September record surpassed the previous record set last year by 0.20 Fahrenheit degrees. Over the oceans, the September globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.33 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average, which tied September 2014 for being the second highest temperature on record for the month.
• According to data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) , the September Arctic sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere was approximately 27.8 percent below the 1981–2010 average, making it the fifth smallest September Arctic sea ice extent since satellite records began in 1979. In the Southern Hemisphere, the September 2016 Antarctic sea ice extent also was the fifth smallest September extent in the 38-year record.
• A global map of Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for September 2016 is available from NCEI.
  [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
• Tabulating top 15 warmest months -- Scientists at NCEI ranked the top 15 warmest months since 1880 in terms of the largest monthly temperature departures from the 20th century. Based upon this ranking, September 2016 was the 11th warmest month in the last 137 years, tying the months of January 2007, February 2016 and June 2016 for that position. Furthermore, 14 of the 15 largest monthly temperature departures in the record have occurred since February 2015. [NOAA/NCEI Global Analysis]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• Operation IceBridge is launched for eighth year in Antarctic -- A NASA research aircraft containing sophisticated instruments and a team of scientists has flown its first mission in mid-October from Punta Arenas, a city at the southern tip of Chile. The flight marks the beginning this season's survey of Antarctic ice in the eighth year of Operation IceBridge, a NASA mission that aims to monitor changes in polar ice from a fixed-wing aircraft. Flights were expected to continue through the third week of November. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]
• Assessing the devastation from "record-breaking" Hurricane Matthew -- An "Event Tracker" feature in NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine follows the path of destruction wrought by Hurricane Matthew earlier this month as it developed in the Caribbean and then tracked across western Haiti, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas before paralleling the coasts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Matthew, which reached category 5 hurricane status briefly because of its maximum sustained surface winds reaching 160 mph, set a variety of records as described in this article. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

• Historical tide gauge records may underestimate global sea level rise -- A team of researchers from the University of Hawaii, Old Dominion University and NASA's Jet Propulsion recently claimed that the longest and highest-quality records of historical ocean water levels made by tide gauges may have underestimated the amount of global average sea level rise that occurred during the 20th century due to Greenland ice melt by as much as 25 percent. The scientists base their claim on their analysis of measurements of derived sea level rise from Greenland using NASA's GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites measurements. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• New Winter season Climate Outlooks issued -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their initial US Winter Climate Outlooks for the nation covering meteorological winter (in the Northern Hemisphere) that includes the three months of November, December and February. They foresee a good chance for warm and dry weather across southern sections of the United States, running from the deserts of the Southwest eastward to Florida and the Southeastern Atlantic coast. On the other hand, a cooler and wetter than average winter across northern sections of the country, especially over the northern Rockies, the northern Plains and sections of the Great Lakes. These outlooks were based upon CPC anticipating the development of a La Niña event that would favor these conditions. [NOAA News] A 3-minute video of a CPC forecaster delivering the outlook is posted.
  At the same time, CPC also released its new national Three-Month (Seasonal) Climate Outlooks for November 2016 through January 2019, corresponding to the last month of the meteorological autumn season (in the Northern Hemisphere) and the first two months of meteorological winter. Specific details of the outlooks include:
  • Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, more than two-thirds of the contiguous United States should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for the three upcoming months. The greatest probability of such an occurrence should be found across the Southwest, especially in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. The outlook indicates that the northern tier of states, extending from the Washington in the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Midwest and the eastern Great Lakes would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions for late autumn and early winter.
    The CPC precipitation outlook calls for a better than even chance for below average precipitation during the next three months across the southern tier of states, especially along the Gulf Coast States running from Texas eastward to the Florida Panhandle. On the other hand, the northern Rockies and adjacent high Plains in Montana would have the best chances of above average precipitation through next January. The area around the northern Great Lakes could also have above average winter precipitation. The remainder of the contiguous states were given essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation through the first half of winter 2016-17.
    A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part upon the anticipated transition of the current ENSO conditions (neither an El Niño or La Niña event) to La Niña conditions during the upcoming winter.
    A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
  • Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-October 2016 through January 2017. Their outlook would call for the persistence of extensive drought conditions across the southwestern sections of the nation, running from central and southern California eastward into Nevada and Arizona. Drought conditions across the Southeast should also continue especially over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys as well as expand along the Gulf Coast westward into the southern Plains. In the Northeast, drought conditions were expected to remain primarily along coastal areas, extending from New Jersey northward to Downeast Maine. On the other hand, sections of the West (northern California and interior Oregon) that had been experiencing drought, could see sufficient improvement in drought conditions that would result in the possible removal from drought status. Similarly sections of the interior Northeast (Pennsylvania, Upstate New York and northern New England) could also see elimination of drought conditions by the end of January 2017. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.
• Predicting "flash droughts" could be helped by soil moisture and snowpack data -- Researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) claim that "flash droughts," such as the one that the Midwest and southern Rockies experienced during the summer of 2012, could be better predicted as many as four months in advance by using soil moisture and snowpack data. The 2012 drought caused $30 billion in economic losses and could be considered to be one of the most severe and extensive droughts in the US since the 1930's Dust Bowl drought. A "flash drought" is considered to be a relatively short period with well above average surface temperatures and anomalously low or rapid decreasing soil moisture. [NCAR/UCAR AtmosNews]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

• Impacts of changing climate on key marine food source are tracked -- Scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution have conducted a study that shows how changes in ocean temperature affect levels of Synechococcus, a tiny bacterium common in marine ecosystems, the near shore waters along the Massachusetts coast over a 13-year period. As ocean temperatures increased during that time, annual blooms of this key phytoplankton species occurred as much as four weeks earlier than usual, since cells divided faster in warmer conditions. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Feedback in Earth's Climate System

Consider examples of positive and negative feedback. A warming trend in climate is likely to accelerate the rate of melting of snow and ice, producing more bare ground that absorbs more solar radiation, further raising the air temperature. A cooling trend prolongs snow and ice cover in spring and summer so that less solar radiation is absorbed, more reflected to space, bringing about additional cooling. In both cases, feedback is positive because the initial change in temperature is amplified.

Consider an example of negative feedback. While feedbacks among temperature, cloud cover, and radiation are not well understood and depend upon circumstances (e.g., type and height of clouds), they could be either positive or negative. It is thought that a warming trend in climate should increase the rate of evaporation of water from Earth's surface and thereby increase low cloud cover. A thicker and more extensive low-cloud cover reflects more solar radiation to space thereby inhibiting a further rise in surface temperature. Hence, this negative feedback would dampen the initial temperature change.

Understanding feedback in the climate system is essential for modeling and predicting climate change. If some agent or mechanism alters the climate, then feedback may either amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the change in climate. As demonstrated later in this course, many agents and mechanisms can bring about climate change (e.g., variations in solar energy output, regular fluctuations in Earth-Sun geometry). While these climate forcing agents and mechanisms drive climatic change, processes within the planetary climate system involving feedbacks significantly impact the magnitude of climate change.

Overall, which type of feedback prevails in Earth's climate system, positive or negative? A system in which positive feedback prevails is unstable. For Earth, this would move the climate regime toward an extreme characterized by excessive cold that would encase the planet in snow and ice ("snowball" or "ice ball" Earth) or toward the other extreme resulting in much higher temperatures--the product of a runaway greenhouse effect. Although Earth's climate has varied considerably over the billions of years that constitute geologic time, it appears likely that Earth's climate system has been nearly stable with negative feedbacks generally compensating for positive feedbacks.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

1. The magnitude of a climate change [(largely depends upon)(is independent of)] positive and negative feedback phenomena operating in Earth's climate system.
2. Through much of Earth history, it appears that [(positive feedbacks)(negative feedbacks)(a general balance between positive and negative feedbacks)] have (has) prevailed.

Historical Events:

• 24 October 1951...Sacramento, CA reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record low for October. (The Weather Channel)
• 25 October 1977...Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) in a non-tropical storm to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)
• 26 October 1859...New York City had their earliest substantial snow of record as four inches blanketed the city. (David Ludlum)
• 26 October 1919...The temperature at Bismarck, ND plunged to ten degrees below zero, the earliest subzero reading of record for the city, and a record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)
• 26 October 1926...Barrow, AK received a record fifteen inches of snow, and also established a 24-hour precipitation record of 1.00 inch, which lasted until the 21st of July in 1987. (The Weather Channel)
• 26 October 1993...The temperature at Eureka, CA soared to 87 degrees to set an all-time high temperature record for the city. (Intellicast)
• 26 October 2010...The lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the U.S. between the Rockies and the Appalachians with a non-tropical system was set at Big Fork, MN, with a pressure of 955.2 millibars (28.21 inches of mercury). (National Weather Service files)
• 27 October 1929...A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)
• 28 October 1936...The temperature at Layton, NJ dipped to 9 degrees above zero to establish a state record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)
• 28 October 1991...Yakima, WA recorded 2.4 inches of snow, equaling the record for October. (Intellicast)
• 29 October 1917...The temperature at Soda Butte, WY the mercury plunged to 33 degrees below zero, an U.S. record for the month of October. (David Ludlum)
• 29 October 1991...Bismarck, ND received 15.9 inches of snow on the 28^th and 29^th. This brought the October snowfall total to 23.5 inches, a new record. (Intellicast)
• 30 October 1925...Nashville, TN was blanketed with an inch of snow, their earliest measurable snow of record. (The Weather Channel)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@aos.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2016, The American Meteorological Society.