WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK ELEVEN: 14-18 November 2016

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Watch for the spectacular November "supermoon" and perigean spring tide -- The moon reached its full moon phase early Monday (14 November) morning at 1352Z (8:52 AM EST, 7:52 AM CST, etc.), approximately 2 hours after perigee, when the moon is closest to Earth in its elliptical orbit. In fact, the moon is the closest to the Earth since 1948, as it comes within 221,524 miles of Earth; the next time the moon will come as close should be in 2034. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Feature] Like the full moons in October and December, the November full moon will be called a "supermoon," as its closeness makes the moon appear larger than usual. In fact, this full moon will be the closest supermoon of the year. The closeness of the moon and increased gravitational pull will cause an increase in the height of ocean tides over next weekend, resulting in what is called a "perigean spring tide" (or King Tide). [EarthSky] [NOAA National Ocean Service Facts]
Teachers invited to join the 2017 NOAA Climate Stewards Education Project Stewardship Community --
Educators across the United States working with elementary through university-age students are invited to learn more about climate change and climate resilience by applying to become part of the 2017 NOAA Climate Stewards Education Project (CSEP) Stewardship Community for the 2017/18 academic year. Selected educators who meet project requirements will be eligible for: mini-grants up to $2000 to support a climate stewardship action project; • travel reimbursements to attend select workshops and/or national conferences; special professional development opportunities; and additional monetary and educational resources. Applications are due by midnight, Sunday 20 November 2016. For more information, go to the NOAA Climate Stewards Education Project Web Site
Celebrate Geography Awareness Week and GIS Day -- This week (13-19 November 2016) has been identified as Geography Awareness Week. National Geography Awareness Week, launched by presidential proclamation in 1987, is designed to draw attention to geo-literacy and "the importance of geographic understanding in ensuring our nation's economic competitiveness, national security, environmental sustainability, and the livability of our communities in the 21st century." Since the US National Park Service is celebrating its 100th anniversary, this year's Geography Awareness Week theme is "Explore the Power of Parks."
In conjunction with Geography Awareness Week, this Wednesday (16 November 2016) has been designated GIS Day, which commenced in 1999 and "provides an international forum for users of geographic information systems (GIS) technology to demonstrate real-world applications that are making a difference in our society." This year's theme "Discovering the World Through GIS." [ GIS Day]
Watching a meteor shower -- This year's Leonid meteor showers should peak during the predawn hours of this coming Wednesday night and Thursday morning (16-17 November 2016). The Leonid meteor showers, which appear to emanate from the constellation Leo, occur in November as Earth passes through the debris trail from Comet Tempel-Tuttle. As many as 10 to 15 meteors per hour are expected this year. Unfortunately, a waning gibbous moon should sufficiently bright so as to interfere with viewing conditions, even where city lights and clouds do not block the sky. The shower's radiant, or originating point, will be in the eastern sky after sunset and then will shift to the west after local midnight. [Astronomy]
A Long Polar Night -- After being above the horizon for only 38 minutes this Friday, the sun set at 1:31 PM Alaska Standard Time (18 November 2016) at Barrow, the northernmost city in Alaska, for the last time this year. The next time the sun will rise above the local horizon in Barrow will be at 1:17 PM AST on 22 January 2017. On that date, the sun will remain above the horizon for 45 minutes. While the sun will be below the horizon for the next 65 days, residents of this city will have roughly three hours of some diffuse sunlight each day that is equivalent to civil twilight, provided the cloud cover is not too thick. To check the sunrise and sunset times of Barrow or any location in the United States go to the US Naval Observatory's on-line, interactive service for the entire year.
Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2016 Campaign resumes -- The twelfth in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2016 will commence this coming Sunday (20 November) and continue through Wednesday, 30 November. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Perseus in the Northern Hemisphere and Grus in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next and final series in the 2016 campaign is scheduled for 20-30 December 2016. [GLOBE at Night]
Photographs of the solar eclipse taken 50 years ago from an elevated South American plateau were first to reveal details of the solar corona -- In November 1966, scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) made photographs of the solar eclipse from a point in a remote region of Bolivia at an elevation of approximately 13,000 feet above sea level. They used a massive new camera for their photographs. Only when the photographs were developed did the scientists discovered that these images contained detailed structure of the solar eclipse that gave astronomers a new understanding of the solar corona and the solar wind. [UCAR/NCAR AtmosNews]
Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

A report published that analyzes global climate between 2011 and 2015 -- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently published a report entitled "The Global Climate in 2011-2015" that was submitted to the U.N. climate change conference. This WMO report is a detailed analysis of global climate over the period 2011-2015, which represents the warmest five-year period ever measured globally. These record temperatures were also associated with a measured rise in sea level, a sharp decline in Arctic Sea Ice and a period of many extreme climate events and episodes. [World Meteorological Organization Press Release]

CLIMATE FORCING

Predicting "the Blob" is assessed -- Researchers from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, George Mason University and a software development firm have been investigating the evolution and predictability of a large pool of abnormally warm water that developed across the northeastern Pacific Ocean in the October 2013 and persisted until June 2016. This large warm water pool, which was dubbed "the Blob", was the most prolonged episode of warming in the waters of the Gulf of Alaska and other coastal areas of western North America, resulting in the devastation of some native marine ecosystems. Apparently, the unusual pattern of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may have resulted in the long-lived anomalous atmospheric circulation regime over the northeastern Pacific. [NOAA Climate Program Office News]
Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations reach record levels in 2015 -- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently released its "WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin" describing the state of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based upon global observations in 2015. This bulletin reported that for the first time since monitoring began more than 55 years ago, the globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration reached the symbolic milestone of 400 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 2015, remaining there for essentially the entire year. This increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide was driven in part by the strong El Niño event that developed during the second half of 2015 and continued into early 2016. The report also notes a 37 percent increase in radiative forcing occurred between 1990 and 2015, which represented a warming effect on the planetary climate because of record or near record levels of other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide from industrial, agricultural and domestic activities. .[World Meteorological Organization Media Centre]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion & La Niña advisory outlook updates released -- Late last week forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) that showed La Niña conditions were developing in October and early November as below average sea surface temperatures (SST) were found across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. SST values ranged from between one and two Celsius degrees below normal across this region. Consequently, the CPC forecasters released their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion in which they still maintained their La Niña advisory, as they envision the present La Niña conditions are slightly favored to persist through this upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter (December through February). They gave the La Niña an approximately 55-percent chance of continuation for the next three to four months. A technical description of the forecasters' reasoning is provided. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center] An ENSO blog written by a contractor for CPC provides a non-technical description of how the CPC forecasters arrived at their forecast of La Niña conditions through winter. The blog also accompanying graphics showing several maps across the tropical Pacific Ocean basin showing anomalies in SST, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and the near-surface winds across the Pacific basin in October 2016 compared with the corresponding 30-year (1981-2010) averages. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
A 14-second video is available that an animation of maps of the SST-anomalies across the tropical Pacific made approximately every two weeks from 21 November 2015 through 24 September 2016. This video shows the peaking of a strong El Niño event last winter in the Northern Hemisphere, followed by a fading during the boreal spring and summer and then a hint at La Niña conditions during early fall. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Changing climate is already dramatically impacting nature -- A study conducted by researchers at the University of Florida and their colleagues from ten countries concludes that global climate change associated with an approximately one Celsius degree increase in temperature has already been impacting every aspect of life on planet Earth, ranging from individual genes to entire ecosystems. Many of these impacts will affect the human population. [University of Florida News]

CLIMATE AND HUMANS

Climate variability and its role in human evolution -- Rick Potts, Director of the Smithsonian Institution's Human Origins Program was recently interviewed and he shared his thoughts about how climate variability governed human adaptation and evolution. The Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History's exhibit "What Does It Mean to Be Human" was also described. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

International climate change conference is underway -- The twenty-second session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 22) and the twelfth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 12) is currently being held through this Friday (18 November 2016) in Bab Ighli, Marrakech, Morocco. [UN Framework Convention on Climate Change]
Options explored to pay for climate-related damage and loss -- Researchers at Brown University's Climate and Development Lab and their colleagues from Belgium and Bangladesh produced a report titled "Financing Options for Loss and Damage: A Review and Roadmap" under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This report explores some of the financial options being considered to help pay for losses and damages that are expected to be inflicted by climate change. Two types of debt securities are discussed: climate-themed bonds and catastrophe bonds. [Brown University News]
Nominations can be made for "Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources" -- An award called the "Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources" will be awarded to as many as seven recipients along with seven honorable mentions in recognition of their outstanding efforts to increase awareness and safeguard the nation's natural resources from the negative effects of climate change. This award is through the efforts an interagency group of federal, state, and tribal agencies that included NOAA and the US Departments of Interior and Agriculture and is part of the President's Climate Action Plan and the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy. Individuals or groups can be nominated for this through the first week of December 2016. [National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Exposure to air pollution that would include a variety of gas species and particulate matter could result in health-related problems, especially those people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in climate could increase air pollutant exposure in several ways. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in heat waves are often stagnant, which reduce dispersion and create environmental conditions for photochemical reactions that increases ground-level ozone concentrations. Increased ozone has been shown to cause reduction in lung function. These heat waves associated with stagnant weather patterns would also increase fuel combustion for power generation needed for air conditioning. Changes in climate could also affect emissions of natural air pollutants and airborne allergens.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

While a range of negative health impacts would be possible from future climate change, adaptation would likely help protect the majority of the nation's population. This adaptation would entail maintenance of the public health and community infrastructure across the nation. Adequate water treatment systems would help curb waterborne diseases, while health care facilities and emergency shelters would help minimize the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

16 November 1958...More than six inches (6.4 inches) of snow fell at Tucson, AZ, one of the biggest ever for that location. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
16 November 1959...The most severe November cold wave in U.S. history was in progress. A weather observing station located 14 miles northeast of Lincoln, MT reported a reading of 53 degrees below zero, which established an all-time record low temperature for the nation for the month of November. Their high that day was one degree above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
17 November 1953...The temperature at Minneapolis, MN reached 71 degrees, their warmest reading of record for so late in the autumn. (The Weather Channel)
18 November 1955...An early season cold snap finally came to an end. Helena, MT experienced 138 consecutive hours of subzero temperatures, including a reading of 29 below zero, which surpassed by seven degrees their previous record for the month of November. Missoula, MT broke their November record by 12 degrees with a reading of 23 below zero, and Salt Lake City, UT smashed their previous November record of zero degrees with a reading of 14 degrees below zero. Heavy snow in the Great Basin closed Donner Pass, CA and total crop damage from the cold wave amounted to eleven million dollars. (David Ludlum)
19 November 1957...Nineteen inches of snow covered the ground at Cresco, IA, a record November snow depth for the state. (The Weather Channel)
19 November 1996...A 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the state of Oregon was established when 11.65 in. of rain fell at Port Orford. (NCDC)
19 November 2009...Adelaide, Australia reported a temperature reading of 109 degrees, which set an all-time record high for the month of November, Elliston had a 111-degree reading, which was its all-time record for any day. The month of November 2009 was the warmest November on record for Australia. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
20 November 1914...The high temperature of 28 degrees at Atlanta, GA was their earliest daily high below the freezing mark. (The Weather Channel)
20 November 1979...A blizzard struck Cheyenne, WY producing a record 19.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a record total of 25.6 inches in forty hours. Strong winds created huge drifts stopping all transportation. (19^th-21^st) (The Weather Channel)

Return to RealTime Climate Portal