Stefan Hastenrath

UW–Madison

Circulation and teleconnection mechanisms of Northeast Brazil droughts

Room 811 AOSS, Monday, March 19, 2007, 3:30 PM

Abstract

The Northern Nordeste of Brazil has its short rainy season narrowly concentrated around March–April, when the interhemispheric southward gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is the main rainbearing system for the Nordeste, reaches its southernmost position in the course of the year. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio–economic impact in this semi–arid region. In drought years, the pre–season (October–January) rainfall is scarce, the interhemispheric SST gradient weakened and the basin–width southerly (northerly) wind component enhanced (reduced), all manifestations of an anomalously far northward ITCZ position. Apart from this ensemble of Atlantic indicators, the Secas also tend to be preceded by anomalously warm equatorial Pacific waters in January. During El Niño years, an upper–tropospheric wave train extends from teh equatorial eastern Pacific to the northern tropical Atlantic, affecting the patterns of upper–tropospheric topography and divergence, and hence of vertical motion over the Atlantic. The altered vertical motion leads to a weaker meridional pressure gradient on the equatorward flank of the North Atlantic subtropical high, and thus weaker North Atlantic tradewinds. The concomitant reduction of evaporation and wind stirring allows for warmer surface waters in the tropical North Atlantic and thus steeper interhemispheric meridional thermal gradient. Consequently, the ITCZ stays anomalously far North and the Nordeste rainy season becomes deficient.