NWS-La Crosse Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KARX 192250
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
545 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

This will be a very active period across the region. Surface
analysis this afternoon shows a warm front across northern
Missouri with an area of low pressure over eastern Colorado.
Surface dew points have climbed into the lower 70s along and south
of the warm front. This warm front will be a major player for
tonight as a short wave trough coming out of the Rockies this
afternoon moves over the region and interacts with the front. The
low level moisture transport will rapidly increase this evening
ahead of the approaching short wave trough with several runs of
the RAP suggesting this will be focused over northeast Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin. With the forcing from the short wave trough,
expecting to see convection develop late this afternoon over
southwest Minnesota and rapidly develop east/southeast and become
focused on the nose of the low level moisture transport. These
features do not look to change much until late tonight when the
moisture transport looks to weaken and move off to the east.
Unfortunately, this set up looks to have a east/west line of
showers and storms over the southern portions of the area for a
good share of the night with a heavy rain/flash flood threat. More
information on this in the hydrology section below.

Once the short wave trough and moisture transport move off to the
east Thursday morning, the focus will quickly shift back to the
west with the next incoming short wave trough. This wave looks to
be much stronger and bring in a round of moderate pv advection in
the 500-300 mb layer late Thursday afternoon and evening. As this
wave approaches the region, the moisture transport will rapidly
refocus west of the area ahead of the approaching cold front. This
should then spread north/northeast ahead of the front and short
wave trough into eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. This
will help to push the warm front into the area and the concern
becomes how far north this will progress. The atmosphere south of
the warm front looks like it will become capped off with only some
scattered storms possible. A surface low will translate north
along the cold front and create a triple point as it drags the
warm front north with. Right along the warm front, the 19.12Z NAM
shows up to 2000 J/Kg of ML CAPE in place from southeast Minnesota
into western Wisconsin during the late afternoon and evening. In
this area, there will be lots of shear to work with. 0-3 km values
should be on the order of 40 to 45 knots with almost all of this
residing in the lowest 0-1 km layer. The shear does continue to
increase with height with 50 to 55 knots along and north of the
warm front. As the convection develops in the afternoon, there is
the possibility of some discrete cells that will pose a tornado
threat before the activity forms into a more linear structure.
Once this happens, the main threat will transition to damaging
winds, but due to the large amounts of low level shear, there will
continue to be a threat for embedded tornadoes. SPC has already
upgraded the outlook for Thursday to enhanced north of the cap.
All this activity will then come to an end Thursday night as the
cold front sweeps across the region with the short wave trough.
While there could be some periods of heavy rain with the storms
Thursday afternoon/night, these look to be progressive enough to
not pose much of a flooding threat. However, that could and will
need to be revisited after the rain tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Once the system moves by the area Thursday night, the upper level
flow looks to go zonal through the weekend until another trough
moves across the Upper Midwest to start next week. This system
looks to push a cold front across the region with a chance for
some showers and a few storms Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will be cooler for this entire period with highs generally in the
60s to lower 70s with overnight lows mainly in the 45 to 55 range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Wet, stormy period with cold/warm front interaction with upper level
shortwaves and a summery airmass to fire periods of showers and
storms through Thu evening. Heavy rain likely with the stronger
storms with potential for strong/severe storms late Thu
afternoon/evening.

Cigs: expect generally around and sub 1kft through Thu morning, with
some improvement to potentially VFR later THU afternoon as a warm
front lifts north of the TAF sites. IFR/MVFR (LIFR?) progged to
return post the passage of the cold front for Thu night.

WX/vsby: shra/ts tonight with heavy and reductions to 2 mile or less
expected. Pcpn will lighten up Thu morning, with a break in the
afternoon before a line of strong (severe?) storms roll in with a
cold front Thu evening. Expect more reductions - although more brief-
 with these storms.

Winds: generally southeast into Thu afternoon, swinging southwest
then northwest overnight THU with the passage of a cold front. Winds
will pick up Thu afternoon (some higher gusts) with likely some
enhanced gusts around any thunderstorm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

No additional changes were made to the flash flood watch. As the
storms get going this evening and overnight, they will be working
in excellent conditions to produce repeated rounds of heavy rain.
The band is expected to lay out east/west on the nose of the low
moisture transport with the models continuing to show a strong
band of low moisture convergence across northeast Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin. An axis of 2+ inches of precipitable water
should reside from southern Minnesota across northeast Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin where warm cloud depths will be in the 4 to
4.5 km range. Conservatively forecasting a axis of 2 to 3 inches
of rain from about the Austin area east/southeast toward the
Viroqua and Richland Center areas. Fully expect that there will be
much higher local rainfall totals that could be near or exceed 6
inches. Expecting flash flood warnings to be issued tonight and
the severity of the flooding will depend on the rainfall amounts.
This flash flooding will then transition into areal and river
flooding that will likely impact the Upper Iowa, Turkey, Kickapoo
and Pine River basins. Forecasts for some of these sites based on
early qpf forecasts were already suggesting a high likelihood of
flooding and river flood warnings also look to be needed from this
event.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION....Rieck
HYDROLOGY...04