NWS-La Crosse Forecast Discussion
FXUS63 KARX 250451
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1151 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018
Ready for more springtime temperatures? You've got it. An overall
quiet weather regime looks to continue for the remainder of the work
week, with just a few items of interest, namely RH values tomorrow
afternoon and some small shower chances toward Thursday and perhaps
again Friday. A weak cold front cleared the area earlier today, tied
to a pair of shortwaves just to our west - one expected to drop into
the northern Great Lakes this evening, and another meandering
through the Central Plains into tomorrow. Split forcing mechanisms
around our area mean nothing more than maybe a sprinkle into the
evening across the area as a batch of mid clouds work overhead,
giving way to high pressure arriving Wednesday into Wednesday night.
A touch cooler for Wednesday beneath transient thermal troughing,
but modest mixing should give a boost into the 50s to probably lower
60s in some spots, but with sharp drying aloft, can envision dew
points mixing out rather robustly for some continued lower end fire
weather concerns.
Otherwise, the focus will be on our next shortwave/cold front combo
slated to arrive later Thursday. Forcing remains decent into central
and northern Wisconsin though tapers with westward extent and
honestly, moisture is pretty paltry given only weak return flow
ahead of the boundary. Can't rule out a few showers, especially with
the front coming through during "peak heating" of 21-00Z and some
hints of maybe up to 100 J/kg surface-based CAPE (so nice to use
that term again...and not "snow"). Current lower end chances for
showers look pretty good at the moment, with temps likely rebounding
nicely ahead of the boundary, before again dipping slightly behind
into Friday. Have seen some hints of a stronger shortwave working
through the northern Great Lakes into Friday afternoon, so will need
to watch trends on that, but for now, any precip chances for Friday
itself look to be well off to our east.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018
Let the quiet weather continue, with a downright beautiful weekend
on tap across the entire region. Guidance trends the past few days
continue to hint at building mid level ridging across much of the
Plains, eventually spreading east in our direction by Sunday-Monday.
End result should be plenty of sunshine and increasing warmer
temperatures. In fact, it's not out of the question some spots could
maybe push 80 degrees by Monday provided the current setup holds
with 850mb temps spiking toward 12C, though we'll have to watch at
least some small risk for some showers to develop within broader
moisture return. Regardless, looking very spring-ish to wrap up the
month of April. No complaints here.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018
Good VFR expected overnight thru Wed evening as high pressure and a
deep, dry airmass build over the area. Any clouds thru 26.06z
looking to be sct cirrus. Winds to be generally northerly at less
than 10kts thru mid day Wed, becoming NW thru the afternoon, then
light/variable into Wed night with the center of the night nearby/
overhead.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lawrence
LONG TERM....Lawrence
AVIATION.....RRS
FXUS63 KARX 250451
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1151 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018
Ready for more springtime temperatures? You've got it. An overall
quiet weather regime looks to continue for the remainder of the work
week, with just a few items of interest, namely RH values tomorrow
afternoon and some small shower chances toward Thursday and perhaps
again Friday. A weak cold front cleared the area earlier today, tied
to a pair of shortwaves just to our west - one expected to drop into
the northern Great Lakes this evening, and another meandering
through the Central Plains into tomorrow. Split forcing mechanisms
around our area mean nothing more than maybe a sprinkle into the
evening across the area as a batch of mid clouds work overhead,
giving way to high pressure arriving Wednesday into Wednesday night.
A touch cooler for Wednesday beneath transient thermal troughing,
but modest mixing should give a boost into the 50s to probably lower
60s in some spots, but with sharp drying aloft, can envision dew
points mixing out rather robustly for some continued lower end fire
weather concerns.
Otherwise, the focus will be on our next shortwave/cold front combo
slated to arrive later Thursday. Forcing remains decent into central
and northern Wisconsin though tapers with westward extent and
honestly, moisture is pretty paltry given only weak return flow
ahead of the boundary. Can't rule out a few showers, especially with
the front coming through during "peak heating" of 21-00Z and some
hints of maybe up to 100 J/kg surface-based CAPE (so nice to use
that term again...and not "snow"). Current lower end chances for
showers look pretty good at the moment, with temps likely rebounding
nicely ahead of the boundary, before again dipping slightly behind
into Friday. Have seen some hints of a stronger shortwave working
through the northern Great Lakes into Friday afternoon, so will need
to watch trends on that, but for now, any precip chances for Friday
itself look to be well off to our east.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018
Let the quiet weather continue, with a downright beautiful weekend
on tap across the entire region. Guidance trends the past few days
continue to hint at building mid level ridging across much of the
Plains, eventually spreading east in our direction by Sunday-Monday.
End result should be plenty of sunshine and increasing warmer
temperatures. In fact, it's not out of the question some spots could
maybe push 80 degrees by Monday provided the current setup holds
with 850mb temps spiking toward 12C, though we'll have to watch at
least some small risk for some showers to develop within broader
moisture return. Regardless, looking very spring-ish to wrap up the
month of April. No complaints here.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018
Good VFR expected overnight thru Wed evening as high pressure and a
deep, dry airmass build over the area. Any clouds thru 26.06z
looking to be sct cirrus. Winds to be generally northerly at less
than 10kts thru mid day Wed, becoming NW thru the afternoon, then
light/variable into Wed night with the center of the night nearby/
overhead.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lawrence
LONG TERM....Lawrence
AVIATION.....RRS