NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 292131
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
331 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing winter storm continues to impact holiday weekend travel
  across northeast Wisconsin through late tonight where Winter
  Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect.
  Snowfall totals of 6 to 11 are expected in the Winter Storm
  Warning area, with lighter amounts to the north.

- Hazardous travel conditions will likely persist into Sunday.
  While the snow will end Sunday morning, northwest winds gusting
  to 25 to 35 mph will cause some blowing and drifting snow,
  especially in open areas and on east-west oriented roads.

-  Much colder air will arrive for the start of next week. Wind
   chills may fall to 10 below zero or colder Monday morning with
   below normal temperatures continuing through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Short Term (Today through Sunday):

Surface low across south-central Iowa is expected to move to
near Chicago this evening, then into lower Michigan on Sunday
morning. Snow will continue through the evening, which could
be heavy at times as main system moves across the region.

Meso models also depicting convective elements over Lake Michigan
moving onshore with persistent easterly flow to help enhance
snowfall totals as well. Lake to 850mb temperatures differences
14-16C noted and deep dendritic snow growth zone should lead
to an efficient snowfall. Still watching our southern counties
with an east-west band of heavier snow due to fgen band that
could boost totals in this region. Continued to use the lower
snow ratios, although snowfall totals were a tad bit higher due
to minor differences in QPF values. It should be noted that the
meso-models are showing several bands, which will result in
variable storm snowfall amounts near Lake Michigan.

The snow should taper off from west to east overnight, except
across the far north where snow showers or flurries will linger
into Sunday due to northerly flow off Lake Superior. Contemplated
on extending the Winter Storm Warning for the Fox Valley and
lakeshore due to strong northwest winds Sunday morning as snow
will exit the region around 12z. It is possible that a Winter
Weather Advisory may be needed for portions of northeast WI after
the Winter Storm Warning expires at 6 am due to the drifting/blowing
snow.

Long Term (Sunday Night through next Friday):

The first subzero temperatures of the season are possible Monday
morning across the north. Meanwhile, a system passing to the
south of the area Monday night that could bring an inch of snow to
central and east-central WI. A brief warm is expected on
Wednesday ahead of the next arctic front. This system will bring a
chance of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Colder air returns on
Thursday with lingering chances of light snow across the north
Friday and Saturday. Except for Wednesday, temperatures will run
well below normal each day.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Poor flying conditions expected through tonight due tn snow,
which may be heavy at times, and low CIGS varying from MVFR
or IFR. Conditions may drop below the IFR category due to heavy
snow shower activity along the Lake Michigan shoreline, which
could impact KMTW and airports across Door County. Snow will
gradually taper off from west to east late tonight, except
across the north where snow showers linger into Sunday. Snowfall
totals of 3-6 inches expected across the north, with 6 to 12
inches south of a Wausau to Wausaukee line. Behind the system,
gusty northerly winds expected on Sunday that could produce some
blowing and drifting of the new snow. Winds should gradually
subside Sunday afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ020-022-030-
031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Eckberg