NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 241023
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
423 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SOME OCCASIONAL MIDDLE OR HIGH CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE
KEEPING DENSE FOG FROM FORMING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO
TOOK THAT OUT OF FORECAST TODAY. DENSE FOG DID FORM OVER NORTEHAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE SKIES CLEARED BUT IT HAS
STAYED CLOUDY ACROSS WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH 330
AM. SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TODAY. SURFACE LOW OVER
KANSAS CITY AT 09Z FORECAST BY MODELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND PASS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING RAIN TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING IS FORECAST. 850 MB
TEMPERTURES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 0C BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNT DURING THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.

00Z MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CWA GRADUALLY BECOMES COLDER FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE NIGHT SO GRIDS SHOW A CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
STATE FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN AS THE COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
EAST. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE HPC SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE. MODEL QPF DECREASED ON THURSDAY SO HAVE GONE
WITH VERY LITTLE...OR NO...ACCUMULATION AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES
MORE LIMITED. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AS COLD AIR WRAPS
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT GRB/ATW/MTW/SUE/OSH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
RDM/MG