NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 241016
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
516 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Above normal temperatures will continue today into Monday. The
primary forecast challenge centers on precipitation chances for
Monday.

Southwest flow aloft and southerly surface winds ahead of a
Northern Plains frontal system will produce similar temperatures
today compared to the last couple of days. This means many
locations will reach or just exceed the 90 degree mark for the
third day in a row.

Progs in good agreement with the frontal system and precipitation
chances slowly drifting into the state on Monday, reaching parts
of central and north central Wisconsin. The eastern part of the
state is expected to remain dry and very warm with maximum
temperatures reaching the mid 80s at least.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

500mb ridge responsible for the unseaonably warm/hot and humid
weather will gradually flatten early this week. The pattern will
shift to a west/northwest flow as ridge builds across the Rockies.
The warm spell will come to an end Tuesday as a cold front moves
across the state. The front will bring a chance of showers and
thundertorms. At this time, some of the storms could bring gusty
winds and locally heavy rain. At this time, the risk of severe
weather is low.

A few showers may linger past midnight Tuesday night, and across
the far north into Wednesday morning. High pressure will dominate
the weather pattern Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. The
next cold will drop southeast into the northern United States
Thursday afternoon. The front will bring a chance of showers to
much of the area Thursday afternoon or Thursday night. Latest
numerical guidance has backed off on the cool air for next
Friday and Saturday. However, will continue with our cooler
forecast for now since MEX guidance values are greatly influenced
by climatology in the later periods. Usually, large Canadian high
pressure systems this time of year are usually capable of
producing lows in the 30s, especially across the north.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Mainly VFR conditions to continue today into tonight. Fog this
morning has been minimal across the area with perhaps some patchy
mvfr vsbys along the lake shore to around 8 am. Southwest flow at
2000 feet AGL producing some LLWS conditions over northwest
Wisconsin including the RHI TAF site early this morning before
ending around 9 am. LLWS conditions expected again late tonight
which include the RHI, AUW and CWA TAF sites.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......TDH