NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 082018
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
318 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND WED. MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE GETTING RID
OF PESKY SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER E-CNTRL WI AND THEN TEMPS
AS QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE RGN.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS PLACED THE CDFNT ROUGHLY FROM
MNM-Y50-PCD. THE SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPED WHERE BETTER MSTR WAS
LOCATED (SRN THIRD OF WI WITH DEW PTS IN THE 70S) AND ATM WAS MORE
UNSTABLE. MUCH DRIER AIR HAD BEEN ADVECTED INTO THE REST OF WI
WITH DEW PTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.

THE CDFNT TO COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE THRU SE WI THIS EVENING. WL NEED
TO CARRY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FOR E-CNTRL WI INTO EARLY EVENING UNTIL
FNT CLRS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A SHRTWV TROF IS FCST TO MOV EAST
THRU NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FORCING REMAINING OVR ONTARIO. THERE IS A SHRTWV WHICH THE MDLS
TAKE ACROSS NRN WI TNGT...BUT WITH LIMITED MSTR AVBL AND LITTLE
LIFT EVIDENT...PREFER TO KEEP THE REST OF THE NGT DRY. A COOLER...
AND LESS HUMID NGT ON TAP ACROSS NE WI AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA. GUID VALUES ARE CLOSE AND DO NOT EXPECT TO
STRAY FAR.

A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES TO THEN PUSH ACROSS WI ON WED WITH ENUF LOW
LVL MSTR PRESENT FOR A CU FIELD TO DVLP. EVEN WITH THE CU FIELD
AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUID AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO
AROUND +11C BY WED AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS
ARE PCPN CHCS THU-SAT...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE RGN BY THU...WITH RETURN
FLOW CAUSING THE RECENTLY DEPARTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK
INTO WISCONSIN AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD LINGER ACROSS N
WI THU NGT...THEN SHIFT NORTH OF THE RGN ON FRIDAY AS A SEASONALLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SW ONTARIO. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE CHCS OF TSTMS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED FRONTAL MOVMT
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON FRI NGT/SAT. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE FRONT SE OF THE RGN BY 12Z/SAT...BUT THIS DOES NOT
JIVE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES/ENS MEAN...WHICH SUPPORT A SLOWER
FROPA...AND KEEP PCPN OVER THE AREA DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE
OPTED TO COMPROMISE AND JUST KEEP THE CURRENT CHC POPS IN THE
FCST OVER THE SE HALF OF GRB CWA ON SATURDAY.

STG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LKS ON SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN OVER THE RGN INTO TUESDAY. HAVE GONE DRY...AND A LITTLE
COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVR THE NXT 24 HRS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
KALLAS/KIECKBUSCH