NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 071720
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1120 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers return to north-central Wisconsin in the late morning
  and afternoon today. Some sprinkles may also work their way into
  the rest of the area before the evening.

- Colder on Saturday with isolated to scattered mixed rain and
  snow, changing to snow Saturday night, with minor accumulations
  in some areas.

- Accumulating lake effect snow expected across far north-
  central WI and northern Door County Sunday.

- High temperatures continue to fall Sunday and Monday, with wind
  chills in the single digits and teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Main focus of the forecast will be precipitation trends from today
through the weekend, as lake enhanced precipitation and colder
temperatures arrive.

Today and Tonight...
The departing upper low will bring us a quiet period for the
morning hours as low level winds remain westerly. Some clearing
may even be possible for the mid morning hours, bringing back some
sunshine to portions of the area to start the day. As winds shift
northwards however, expect cloud cover to return from the north as
relatively moist and cooler air moves across Lake Superior.
Showers will accompany the returning cloud cover, especially for
north-central Wisconsin for the afternoon. For the rest of the
area, the returning cloud cover and showers will contend with
drier air and downsloping, but would still expect increasing sky
cover and possibly a few sprinkles in the afternoon and evening. Any
lingering showers may switch over to snow as the colder air
arrives Friday evening, but accumulations during this time period
will be minor, with only Vilas County expected to see a dusting;
30-40% chance of getting around a tenth of an inch by Saturday
morning. Precipitation then shuts off for a time by the early
morning of Saturday as low level winds shift briefly westwards.

Saturday and Sunday..
The main push of colder air moves into the region during the day
Saturday as a clipper system dives into the Northern Plains. The
most recent guidance continues to take the brunt of the more
organized precipitation south of our area into southern Wisconsin,
with only portions of central and east-central Wisconsin getting
clipped on the northern extent Saturday evening. As result,
probability of getting around a tenth of an inch of snow across
these areas sits at around 30-40%. If this system shifts
northwards again, snow amounts may yet increase slightly. At the
same time however, the switch back to more northerly flow will
again kick up the lake effect across far northern Wisconsin for
Saturday night through Sunday. Snowfall amounts will be fairly
localized in north-central Wisconsin, with northern Vilas County
currently expected to pick up a couple of inches of snow (40-60%
chance of 2 inches) but tapering quickly to only around a 10%
chance of getting an inch by the time you get to Rhinelander.
Still, some locally higher amounts closer to 3" may yet be
possible for those right along the Upper Peninsula border. Door
County may also see some limited enhancement at times through the
day Sunday, but the fetch across the Bay of Green Bay will be
somewhat limited. Still, areas near Deaths Door also sit around
30-40% chance of getting to around 2 inches of snowfall, tapering
off quickly as you get to the southern ends of the Door Peninsula.
Suffice to say, most of the area is likely to see their first
snowflakes this weekend.

Temperatures on Sunday will be greatly impacted by the strong
cold air advection, keeping high temperatures in the upper 20s to
middle 30s. Add in the winds during this period, and wind chills
during the day may get into the teens to single digits during the
colder parts of the day.

Rest of the forecast...
Any remaining lake effect is expected to come to an end sometime
early Monday. Weak warm air advection then returns by the middle
of the week, which could bring a small round of showers but the
rest of the forecast appears dry at this time. High temperatures
will moderate some, staying in the 30s on Monday, but getting back
to the 40s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A cold front moving through the area will bring lowering ceilings this
afternoon. VFR conditions currently at KCWA and KAUW will
transition to MVFR between 20Z-23Z as ceilings lower to BKN/OVC
020-030 AGL. KRHI will remain MVFR with persistent OVC016-020
ceilings. Gusty northwest winds of 15-22KT will continue through
the frontal passage this afternoon. There is a slight chance of
light rain or snow showers impacting far north- central WI near
KRHI, but significant visibility reductions are not expected but
will be monitored.

Confidence lowers somewhat overnight into Saturday morning.
Downsloping northerly flow should allow for ceilings to scatter
out and return to VFR at KGRB, KATW, and KMTW after 03Z-06Z. VFR
ceilings (BKN 035-045 AGL) are also expected to return to KAUW,
KCWA, and KRHI in the 05-08z, but confidence is low with the
timing.  Surface winds will diminish overnight, becoming light
northerly.

On Saturday, VFR conditions are expected to continue. KRHI, KAUW,
KCWA could drop into MVFR at times due to the presence of an
inverted trough and light flow off Lake Superior. There is a low-
confidence chance for a few flurries or light snow showers
Saturday afternoon, but this is not currently included in the
TAFs.

An active and winter-like pattern is expected Sunday into early
next week, with periods of lake effect snow showers impacting
north-central WI (KRHI).

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......MPC