NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 100010
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
610 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No wintry mix/freezing drizzle is expected in far northern
  parts of area later this afternoon into early evening, nor
  across the area later tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Mild temperatures are expected this week.

- Small chances for light snow Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 600 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

No major changes to the going forecast this evening. Dry air is
holding at the surface and light radar reflectivity over the far
northern reaches of our CWA are not reaching the ground. Light
snow/freezing drizzle is not anticipated this evening.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1257 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

This Afternoon through Tuesday night:

Warm air advection will continue this afternoon and evening in
the low levels, with a low level jet nose pointing into northern
parts of the area. Middle to high clouds will continue to move
through the area during this time. Forecast soundings are
continuing to show a good amount of dry air around and below the
850 mb level during this time, except the NAM which looks
overdone with boundary layer moisture.

Given this dry layer of air in place, not expecting much if any
light snow/light rain/light freezing drizzle to reach the
surface in far northern portions of the area. Kept a
flurry/sprinkle mention in this area into this evening.

A cold front will push southeast through the area later tonight
and exit early Tuesday morning, with a dry passage expected
with the dry air in place. There should still be middle to high
clouds moving through into Tuesday morning, with some lower
clouds possible if enough low level moisture develops. Some
uncertainty with this, as forecast soundings are mixed on the
amount of low level moisture. Do not expect any wintry mix or
freezing drizzle with the low clouds at this time, given the
uncertainty with low level moisture.

Cold air advection behind the front on gusty northwest winds is
expected Tuesday. Mild overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower
30s are expected tonight within the warm air advection, with
highs Tuesday still in the middle to upper 30s despite the cold
air advection. It will feel like the 20s with the gusty winds.
High pressure moving toward the region Tuesday night should
bring lighter winds and cooler lows in the lower 20s.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1257 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

High pressure will move across the region later Wednesday into
Wednesday night, bringing quiet weather and seasonable
temperatures. A 500 mb shortwave trough should slide southeast
across the region Thursday afternoon and night, with some 850 mb
to 700 mb frontogenesis response and fairly deep moisture per
area forecast soundings. The best upward vertical motion and
moisture would be in the south central portions of the forecast
area. For now, kept 20 to 30 percent chances for light snow
going for Thursday into Thursday night. Will see how things
trend over the next day or two, and if it holds together, it may
bring some light snow accumulations.

Kept 20 to 30 percent chances for light rain/light snow for
Saturday into Sunday, as low pressure passes by well to the
south and southeast of the area. There is a fair amount of
uncertainty with how this system will affect the area, as
ensembles are varied with measurable QPF, so expect more changes
to the forecast. Temperatures appear to remain on the mild side
per ensemble trends.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 609 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR ceilings will hold through the overnight hours as dry air
remains at the surface. A strong 850mb jet will support
southwesterly wind shear over all of the area from 35 to 45
knots through the overnight hours. Winds will remain light and
southerly overnight before a trough moves through just before
dawn tomorrow. Winds will come around to northwesterly following
the trough and become breezy, with gusts up to 25 knots into the
afternoon hours.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1257 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The Small Craft Advisory for elevated waves north of Port
Washington will expire at 3 PM CST this afternoon. Waves should
continue to subside into tonight.

Brisk southerly winds will linger over Lake Michigan into
tonight, as low pressure around 29.6 inches crosses northern
Ontario. A cold front will cross Lake Michigan later tonight
into early Tuesday, bringing brisk west to northwest winds
Tuesday through Wednesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Tuesday for the nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan, for gusty northwest winds.

High pressure around 30.3 inches will cross the Great Lakes
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing lighter winds. Winds
should remain light Thursday night into Saturday.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM
     Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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