NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 060950 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
450 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with warm but near normal temperatures with
  high pressure for today into Tuesday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday night into
  Thursday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 450 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

High pressure over the region will bring dry conditions today
into Tuesday, along with warm but near normal temperatures.
Modest northeast winds today are expected, with some gustiness
at times near the lake. Highs should reach into the lower to
middle 80s inland, with middle 70s near the lake. Lows in the
middle 50s to around 60 are expected tonight, with light winds.

Highs Tuesday should be in the middle 80s inland, with upper
70s to around 80 closer to the lake, before a southeast lake
breeze develops in the afternoon.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Today through Tuesday night:

High pressure settles over the Upper Great Lakes early this
morning through the day and will influence the pattern across
southern WI through Tuesday. Expect light, northeasterly winds
as the high pressure centers over Lake Superior/northern Lake
Michigan through the day. Give light winds and subsidence expect
drier conditions and plenty of sunshine with temps climbing
into the 80s for inland areas and mid/upper 70s along and inland
from the lakeshore given the prevailing onshore flow. High
pressure then gradually slides southward through the evening
into Tuesday. Expecting another day of drier conditions and
light winds, but will be more southerly. Looking at slightly
warmer temps for Tuesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Given the
light background flow an increased thermal gradient between land
and Lake Michigan water temp, can expect a lake breeze to
develop and push inland through Tuesday afternoon cooling temps
from east to west a few degrees. Tuesday night's lows will be
milder and only fall into the 60s for much of southern WI.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Wednesday through Sunday:

Wednesday continues to trend as the warmest day of the week as
low- level WAA increases over the region as weak low pressure
and cold front is progged to develop and track across WI later
in the day through Thursday. As the surface features trek
through, the latest models continue to prog WI being situated in
the right-entrance region of a modest (<100kt) upper-level jet
aligning with ripple of mid-level vorticity, and a swath of low-
level frontogenesis. This paired with increasing PWATs +1.5
inches to around 2 inches will be enough to support increased
shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Wednesday evening.
Continue to see a signal (equivalent to 5% convective chance via
NCAR NWP convective hazards forecasts) of stronger storm
potential with this activity later Wednesday. While there is
forecast to be +1000 MUCAPE and sufficient synoptic forcing, it
does remain fairly modest along with meager deep layer shear.
Additionally some concern with mid-level features phasing and
model not sufficiently handling it at this time. Nevertheless
will monitor on how things shape up in the coming day as a
potential will be there later Wednesday into Thursday.

Could see shower and storm activity persist into Thursday as
the cold front gradually slides through the region. If things
slow down, then any remnant convection (MCS-type structure)
Thursday morning may be the focus for additional development
late morning/early Thursday afternoon. Then drier conditions
return once the front slides south. Temps look to return to
normal toward the end of the week as northwesterly flow sets up
across the Midwest with high pressure building into the area
toward the weekend.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 450 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

High pressure over the region will bring dry conditions today
into Tuesday. Modest northeast winds today are expected, with
some gustiness at times near the lake. There may be few to
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds well inland this afternoon and
again Tuesday afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected
otherwise.

Light and variable winds are expected tonight into Tuesday,
with a southeast lake breeze developing Tuesday afternoon for
terminals near the lake.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 450 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

High pressure around 30.2 inches will remain in place over the
Upper Great Lakes through Tuesday. Expect steady north to
northeast winds today into this evening, with light and variable
winds later tonight into Tuesday. Southwest winds will increase
Tuesday night, with gusty south to southwest winds Wednesday
into Wednesday night, as weak low pressure around 29.8 inches
and an accompanying cold front approaches from the Northern
Plains. Winds will become northerly behind the frontal passage
Thursday afternoon into Friday, with high pressure around 30.1
inches building into the the Upper Great Lakes Region through
the end of the week.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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