NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 240935
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON UNSETTLED REGIME INTO
THANKSGIVING...THEN DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TODAY-
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION...35 UNIT VORT FROM THE RUC...SPINNING ACROSS
KANSAS. DYNAMICALLY QUITE STRONG WITH FOCUSED DEFORMATION ZONE.
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COMMA HEAD/DEF ZONE FROM SE NEBRASKA INTO
SW IOWA. LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET MAX TRANSLATES TOWARDS CWA
WITH TIME AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS DRAWS CLOSER. MODELS ARE INITIALLY
SHOWING A DRY COMMA TAIL WHICH GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ENERGIZED.
NAM MORE BULLISH ON SLUG OF VV WHILE GFS JUST GRADUALLY BRINGS IT
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...CLOSE TO PRIOR SHIFTS ASSESSMENT.

TONIGHT-
500 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW TRANSITIONS TO OPEN WAVE. 700 OMEGA LOOKS
GOOD WITH THERMAL PROFILES/THICKNESSES AND WET BULB CONSIDERATIONS
ALL SUPPORTING LIQUID. WILL HAVE DEFINITE POPS.

WEDNESDAY-
ANY SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE QUITE BRIEF WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS AND ARRIVING INTO NE IA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. SURFACE/850 LOWS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH NE-SW
ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS LINGERING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE PUTS WESTERN CWA IN A
VULNERABLE POSITION FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS. LOW TRAVERSES FROM NEAR
DBQ TO GRR. MODELS SOLUTIONS ON STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION
BAND LEAVE THINGS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE RANGE AT THIS POINT
ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL CONSIDERATIONS SHOWING
QUESTIONABLE PRECIP TYPES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.

THURSDAY-
UPPER CIRCULATION ALONG WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGHS MOVE EAST OF THE
STATE WITH SOME PRECIP LINGERING IN CYCLONIC FLOW. LOWERED POPS IN
THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FRIDAY-
UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WITH DRIER NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC REGIME.
SURFACE/850 LOWS IN PLACE.

SATURDAY-
UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME IFR STRATUS/VSBYS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IFR
CIGS.  RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL
BRING RAIN ALONG WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME FOG EXPECTED WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
LATER TONIGHT.  RATHER BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS/WAVES NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ