NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 292059
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
259 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gale Warning now in effect for Lake Michigan with gales
  ongoing through much of tonight. Moderate freezing spray is
  also expected.

- Light snow is expected on Tuesday, with around 0.5 to 1 inch,
  mainly toward east central WI. Another brief light snow event
  expected Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 300 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night:

High pressure will swing south of WI tonight allowing winds to
weaken and clearing skies to some degree. However, a weak low
will be swinging down from Alberta and as the high pushes out
the weak low will swing through the western Great Lakes giving
us a brief hit of snow. This system is fairly weak but there
will be a weak shortwave as well as some low level WAA as a weak
LLJ feature pushes through the region. Moisture does not look
like an issue it just looks like the speed of the system and
lighter QPF will lead to low totals around a 0.5-1.0 inches
toward east central WI and less away from there. Rates will
likely peak at 0.25 in/hr. Otherwise this system will enter late
Tuesday morning from the northwest and exit the area west to
east by the early evening.

Tuesday evening/night there may be additional chances for snow
showers as another shortwave swings through though the moisture
will be exiting the region and may allow us to stay dry.

Otherwise chilly tonight with apparent temperatures in the
negative single digits likely across much of southern WI.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 300 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

Wednesday will feature another quick hitting afternoon system
bringing some light snow. This is likely even lighter than
Tuesday as the region lacks much in the way of forcing but
broad, weak midlevel Fgen will be enough to bring some snow
given the moisture content from 850-700mb. This will very
quickly exit late in the afternoon/early Wed evening. Best
chances(~60%) will be in southwestern portions of the state.

While models dry us out a bit more later this week and through
most of the weekend as a band of high pressure becomes
entrenched over southern WI, I am not sold on that solution.
This is due to meridional flow aloft putting us in position for
waves of shortwaves and with models indicative of moisture being
sufficient we could easily see a few more scenarios like Tuesday
and Wednesday with quick hitting bouts of snow. However, there
does not appear to be any risk for a stronger system pushing
through at least until early next week.

Monday shows the next chance for a stronger storm that could
bring a little bit higher QPF/snow though uncertainty is high
and the event still looks like nothing significant at this time.
But this storm at least carries some better forcing support.

Otherwise chilly temperatures through the extended period with
lows mostly into the single digits.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 300 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Winds will remain breezy through the rest of the afternoon/early
evening with MVFR CIGS and VFR/MVFR VSBYS at times with blowing
snow/light snow but overall impacts likely to be limited at
this time. Winds will gradually weaken tonight becoming more
modest Thursday. VFR CIGS return later this evening into the
evening from west to east though we may see SCT 3500ft CIGS
through tonight, especially further east. Into Tuesday afternoon
as another quick hitting snow arrives bringing up to an inch
with brief VSBY reduction as well as some MVFR CIGS for at least
a period late Tuesday morning into the early evening before this
pushes out.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 300 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Low pressure exits into eastern Quebec, storm force gusts have
diminished to gale force. Gale Warning now in effect until 9z
for the open waters and 3z for the nearshores as gales continue
but gradually push out to the east. Moderate freezing spray is
expected into Tuesday morning. Winds will remain northwest and
will diminish below gale force Tuesday morning, but will remain
brisk through the remainder of the week.

Next chance for gales comes Wednesday evening as high pressure
around pivots into the region with low pressure to the east
bringing stronger winds to the region, especially in the north
half of the lake.

Various periods of Small Craft conditions are expected after
this event at at various times over the next several days.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-
     WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until noon Monday.

     Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-
     WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until
     noon Monday.

LM...Storm Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 6 AM
     Tuesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until midnight
     Tuesday.

&&

$$

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