NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 020318 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
918 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quick burst of snow will be possible over east central WI
  Sunday evening, but this area of snow could expand to larger
  portions of southern WI.

- Polar air to remain over southern WI through the weekend,
  then relatively mild temperatures for next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 918 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

The low cloud deck is hanging tough across the region this
evening. It may not start to scatter out until toward Friday
morning, as the subsidence inversion lowers into this deck.
Thus, have increased the sky cover in the forecast until around
09Z Friday, then have it scattering out into Friday morning.
There is uncertainty with this, and the cloud deck could linger
into Friday morning. The additional clouds may keep lows a bit
higher than forecast overnight, so may need to adjust lows
upward. There are also some flurries that may clip northeast
parts of the area overnight, with very weak 700 mb warm air
advection. May add this mention into those areas during this
period.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 237 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Tonight through Sunday:

Snow is quickly diminishing from west to east across S WI this
afternoon as the vorticity maximum exits far srn WI. The light
snow over far se WI and east central WI should end by 22-23Z.
Cloud cover is expected to gradually thin and scatter through
the evening, but there is some uncertainty with the sky coverage
given the extent of clouds extending well west of the MS River.

Partly cloudy skies and lgt wnwly winds are expected for Fri as
high pressure moves into MN and pressure troughing continues
over the nrn Great Lakes via diabatic heating. Temps will rise
from the single digits Fri AM into the upper teens to lower
20s for the afternoon.

Mid to high clouds will then increase for Fri nt-Sat due to a
shortwave trough tracking from NE to the srn Ohio Valley, and a
vorticity maximum tracking across nrn and central WI on Sat. 20
percent chances for light snow are forecast toward central WI
on Sat. High pressure will then settle over WI late Sat nt into
Sun AM with decreasing clouds and temps remaining a bit below
normal.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 237 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Sunday night through Thursday:

A well organized shortwave trough approaching from the west will
pass Sunday evening. A surge of low to mid level warm advection
and PVA will likely bring a burst of snow to east central WI,
but this area of snow could expand to larger portions of srn WI.
Snow accums would still likely remain on the light side. A
quasi-zonal jet stream and relatively mild temperatures are
then forecast for the remainder of the new week. Mostly dry
conditions are forecast, but cannot rule out small chances for
precipitation at times due to weak shortwave troughs within the
zonal flow.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 918 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

The low ceilings in the 3000 to 4000 foot AGL range are hanging
tough across the region this evening. They may not start to
scatter out until toward Friday morning. Thus, will keep these
ceilings in TAFs until around 09Z Friday, then have it
scattering out into Friday morning. There is uncertainty with
this, and the cloud deck could linger into Friday morning. There
are also some flurries that may clip Sheboygan overnight, but
no visibility reductions are expected.

Once skies do scatter out, it should remain so into the rest of
Friday, with some middle to high clouds moving in Friday
evening. Light west northwest winds are expected overnight, with
light to modest northwest winds on Friday. These winds will
become light again Friday evening.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 918 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Brisk west northwest winds will continue into Friday, then
lighter winds will take hold for the weekend. This will occur as
deep low pressure around 28.9 inches continues to gradually
weaken over Hudson Bay, while a ridge of high pressure around
30.1 inches extends from Minnesota into the Ohio Valley.
Moderate freezing spray will continue over eastern portions of
the lake into Friday morning.

Gehring/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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