NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 221949
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
149 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures several degrees above normal through Monday.

- 70-80 percent chance of rain Monday night, lingering into
  Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures move in Wednesday and continue into
  at least the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 149 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Tonight through Sunday night:

Mid level clouds are moving across the region this afternoon,
ahead of a cold front. These clouds have produced a few spits of
rain and snow, and while another brief period of sprinkles or
drizzle will be possible with the actual front later this
afternoon, no meaningful precipitation is expected. Skies will
clear this evening as drier air builds into the region.

Sunday looks to be a fairly pleasant day. Temperatures will
start the day in the low 30s, before warming into the upper 40s
to near 50. Light northwest winds are expected early, eventually
turning southwesterly by late afternoon and evening.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 149 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Monday through Saturday:

An upper level disturbance will move out of the Central Plains
Sunday night and Monday, lifting into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday. Warm advection ahead of this feature will bring
light rain showers to the region Monday afternoon through Monday
night. There's a good chance (>75%) for rain during this
timeframe, though overall amounts will remain quite light.

Behind this initial wave, another, stronger shortwave will push
eastward over the Northern Plains on Tuesday, with cyclogenesis
taking place over northern Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The surface low is expected to deepen over Lake Superior Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with an associated cold front surging
across the region early Wednesday. After reaching the 50s on
Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will remain in the 30s
Wednesday. Daytime highs on Wednesday look to be met in the
morning hours, with falling temperatures probable during the
afternoon.

Despite its strength, not a lot of precipitation is expected
with this front. Some wrap-around flurries or snow showers will
be possible Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day, but no accumulation
is expected at this time.

Colder and dry conditions are expected through at least Friday,
before the pattern becomes active again heading into next
weekend. Lots of uncertainty and a wide range of outcomes at
this distance, but it will be a timeframe to keep an eye on over
the coming week.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 149 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, with only
mid and high level clouds affecting the region. Winds will be
gusty for a time this afternoon from the southwest, before
becoming westerly and then northwesterly with time. Skies will
clear and winds will decrease this evening and overnight.

Light winds are expected on Sunday, initially from the
northwest before turning southwesterly late in the day.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 149 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Breezy southwest winds will continue this afternoon as weak low
pressure of 29.7 inches progresses through Lake Superior. Winds
shift northwesterly tonight with the passage of a cold front.
Gusts up to 30 kt are expected over the open lake. For the
nearshore waters, occasional gusts between 25 and 30 knots are
expected, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

High pressure around 30.1 inches briefly returns Sunday. Modest
southerly winds will develop Monday as low pressure of 28.7
inches moves into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The low will
strengthen over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Tuesday and cross Lake
Superior as a 29.4 inch low early Wednesday morning. Timing and
strength of this low remain uncertain, but a period of gale force
gusts is looking likely over Lake Michigan Wednesday and
Thursday.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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