NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

 

						FXUS63 KMKX 182052
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
252 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...

This evening through Monday Night...Forecast confidence moderate
to high...

A cool but otherwise pleasant day is underway this afternoon, with
temperatures in the low 30s under sunny skies. Expect to see
temperatures fall into the low 20s tonight, with increasing clouds
ahead of another shortwave dropping into the Great Lakes.

That wave and associated weak surface low and frontal boundary
will bring a chance for flurries or very light snow showers to the
area Monday. The best chances Monday will be across the far
north, generally from the Dells to Sheboygan. No appreciable
accumulation is expected, with just a very light dusting at the most.

Winds will become northerly behind the passing front, which will
likely result in a lake effect snow band developing over Lake
Michigan Monday evening. Right now it looks like this band may
skirt the Wisconsin shoreline Monday evening into Monday night. A
dusting to half inch of new snow is possible along the lakeshore
through Tuesday morning should this band affect land.

.LONG TERM...

Tuesday through Thursday...Forecast confidence high...

Tuesday will be another cold day, with highs around 30. Another
passing wave may again bring a few flurries to the far north
Tuesday night, but for now, most of the precipitation looks to
remain north of the forecast area.

Temperatures will begin to moderate a bit on Wednesday, with
highs creeping into the mid 30s. A solid southerly breeze will
kick in for Thanksgiving, helping to boost highs into the upper
30s to near 40.

Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence moderate...

Precipitation chances--in the form of rain--will start to develop
by Friday, with a decent chance for showers Friday and Saturday.
Continued low level warm air advection will support temperatures
in the mid 40s during the day, and nighttime lows in the mid 30s
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAF Update)...

VFR will continue into mid day tomorrow. Skies will remain clear
into this evening, with mid and high level clouds moving in from
the north overnight. MVFR ceilings and a few snow showers are
possible Monday afternoon. Additional snow showers are then
possible at MKE Monday evening, depending on whether a lake effect
snow band makes it onshore from Lake Michigan. Even if it does,
accumulations are expected to remain light.

Winds will remain from the west to southwest through mid day on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

Open Waters...

West to southwest winds remain breezy this afternoon, especially
across the northern portion of the lake, with gusts to 30 knots.
Winds will decrease a bit heading into the nighttime hours
tonight.

Winds will become northerly on Monday as a front moves through the
area. An area of 20 to 30 knot winds will develop and push south
through the lake Monday afternoon into Monday evening in
association with the front. Expect waves to increase as well.

Another passing system will bring a period of near gale force
westerly winds Tuesday night, with winds becoming northerly behind
an associated cold front.

Southerly flow then returns to Lake Michigan Thursday and Friday.
South to southwest winds may approach or exceed gale force during
this time.

Nearshore...

Increasing north winds will result in higher waves Monday night
across the nearshore waters, and a Small Craft Advisory may
eventually be needed for this time. Winds are likely reach Small
Craft levels Tuesday night into Wednesday, and again Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Monday Night through Sunday...Boxell