NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 041202
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
602 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (20 to 50%) for light snow across the region Thursday
  morning, with the highest chances over east-central WI.

- Light drizzle or freezing drizzle and fog possible Thursday
  afternoon / night.

- Chances for snow (central and southeastern WI, 20 to 50
  percent chance) and freezing drizzle (south central and
  southwestern Wisconsin, 20 to 40 percent chance) late Thursday
  night into early Friday morning. Snow totals from both rounds
  of snow less than or equal to 1 inch expected. A thin glaze of
  ice is also possible.

- Milder end to the week with highs in the 30s Thursday and
  Friday, rapidly dropping temperatures Friday evening.

- Additional chances for snow (20 to 40 percent) Saturday night.

- Above average temperatures return for the early portions of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 600 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Lake effect clouds have encroached into far southeastern WI
(Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha counties) early this morning,
with occasional reports of flurries received from the MKE
airport. These clouds and flurries should gradually retreat
southeastward through the course of this morning.

Inland, the thin high-altitude cloud cover has done little to
inhibit radiational cooling overnight, hence our temperature
forecast for early this morning is multiple degrees colder. On
the bright side, this same lack of cloud cover should allow
temperatures to rebound into the 20s area-wide today, with
plenty of sunshine.

No major changes to the rest of the forecast.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1200 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Today through Thursday:

Some lake effect clouds may clip the lakeshore areas overnight
into Wednesday morning at times. The main lake effect snow band
should remain just to the southeast of the Kenosha area later
tonight into Wednesday morning, though some flurries may occur
from Milwaukee southward. Will continue to watch the far
southeast areas during this period, just in case the western edge
of this band tries to clip those areas.

Otherwise, some middle to high clouds should continue to move east
southeast through the area overnight into early Wednesday
morning. Skies should then clear out for the rest of the day. The
main area of high pressure should move shift southward into Iowa
overnight into Wednesday.

Lows overnight will be tricky with the middle to high clouds
moving through, though some areas have already dipped to near
forecast lows. The clouds may slow the cooling somewhat, though
think that some areas may continue to drop overnight. Thus, lows
may need further adjustment downward a few degrees. Highs
Wednesday should rise into the middle 20s for most areas.

Warm air advection will develop Wednesday night with southwest
winds, with a 500 mb shortwave trough shifting southeast through
the area Thursday morning. Forecast soundings are showing a
deepening moisture profile Thursday morning as the shortwave
trough shifts through, with the dendrite snow growth zone tapped
for a few hours. The better upward vertical motion and moisture is
toward the northeast parts of the area. Thus, a period of light
snow may occur Thursday morning and kept 20 to 40 percent chances
going in the forecast. Accumulations should be under mostly under
one half inch, highest toward Sheboygan.

The forecast soundings are showing a loss of ice crystals in the
afternoon, with the low levels remaining moist. The cold front
moving through during the afternoon may help bring patchy light
freezing drizzle, if the ice crystals in the air column are lost.
At this time, kept mention out of the forecast for the afternoon,
but will be something to watch for. The warm air advection should
help temperatures rise into the lower to middle 30s Thursday,
before the front moves through.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1200 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Thursday night through Wednesday:

Patchy fog and freezing drizzle potential (10-20% chances)
linger into Thursday night in central Wisconsin, with lows in
the upper 20s and southwesterly winds bringing in plenty of low
level moisture. A secondary shortwave propagating southward from
the northern Canadian Prairies looks to phase with the more
dominant surface low over the Hudson Bay, bringing several
impulses of upper level lift to central and southern Wisconsin
early Friday morning onward.

In central to southeastern Wisconsin, lift and moisture extends
to the dendritic growth zone (DGZ), bringing an additional band
of snowfall (40-50% chances). However, in south-central to
southwestern Wisconsin, moisture looks to be focused in the
lower levels of the atmosphere, bringing better chances for
supercooled liquid water and a freezing drizzle/freezing rain
set up (20-40% chances). With synoptic lift farther south
expected to be weaker, favor a drizzle potential, but confidence
is not high at this time due to variability in modeling for
exact placement of shortwave driven lift and the tendency of
NAM/GFS to oversaturate the boundary layer. In addition, stiff
southeasterly winds will bring in unseasonably warm temperatures
in the mid-30s, which would lead to more refreeze issues than
pure icing. Will bear watching over the next few model runs as
confidence increases in temperatures and moisture variables.

A strong cold front will push through Friday afternoon,
bringing an end to any lingering drizzle and likely concluding
additional snowfall. However, convective roll snowfall looks to
be possible (NAM as the biggest proponent) through Friday behind
the frontal passage. Expecting minimal additional snow
accumulations during this time frame, but rapidly cooling
temperatures could lead to icing on untreated roads and surfaces
into the Friday evening commute.

Gusty northwest winds bring in lows in the single digits to low
teens Friday night, with any lingering snow showers tapering
off into Friday evening as dry air and high pressure move in.
High pressure is expected to be progressive, however, with an
additional shortwave propagating southeastward into the Great
Lakes and bringing in warming temperatures Saturday (highs in
the upper 20s to near freezing), then another round of snow
Saturday night (20-40% chances).

After the passage of this shortwave, ridging begins to build
back in across the central and southern Plains, nudging up into
the western Great Lakes early next week. This will lead to above
average temperatures in the upper 30s during the day each day
Sunday through Tuesday. As ridging builds, expecting low
pressure to develop in the lee of the central Rockies Tuesday,
ejecting northeastward on Wednesday and bringing the next
chances for precipitation to southern Wisconsin.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 600 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Lake effect MVFR cloud ceilings have encroached into
far southeastern Wisconsin this morning (KMKE, KRAC, KENW,
KBUU) and will likely linger there through mid morning before
retreating southeastward over Lake Michigan. While these clouds
are overhead, some flurries will be possible (as seen in recent
KMKE METAR reports, with light snow and ~9SM visibility
reported). Dry weather and VFR conditions today and tonight.
High altitude cloud ceilings build into the region late tonight,
thickening and lowering in altitude. Nearly calm winds.

A round of light snow is expected to slide across central,
east-central, and southeastern Wisconsin between 6 AM and noon
Thursday, leading to drops in visibility and light (less than 1
inch) accumulations. Cloud ceilings will gradually decline
through this time period, and could potentially reach IFR to
LIFR levels into Thursday afternoon after the snow stops (due
to a southwesterly breeze advecting warm / moist air over the
snow-covered and frozen ground). Some patchy freezing drizzle
may occur Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as well.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1200 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure around 30.4 inches over far western Wisconsin will
slide southward into Iowa overnight into Wednesday. Mainly light
winds are expected. Lake effect snow showers are expected over
the southern half of the open waters overnight through Wednesday
afternoon. Winds will trend west southwesterly Wednesday night
into Thursday, as low pressure around 29.5 inches moves from the
Canadian Great Plains to western Hudson Bay. Snow is possible
during the day on Thursday, ahead of the developing low.

Low pressure will deepen further to near 29.3 inches over central
Hudson Bay Thursday night, ultimately progressing into northern
Quebec during the day on Friday. The low will pull a cold front
across the open waters in the process, resulting in a gusty
northwest wind shift early Friday morning.

A period of northwesterly gales remains possible during the
afternoon and evening hours Friday, with trends being monitored
for potential headlines in coming forecasts. Areas of snow showers
will continue along and ahead of the passing front Thursday night
into early Friday morning. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed for Friday into Saturday for the nearshore waters for gusty
winds.

Elevated wave heights will combine with Arctic air settling in
behind the cold front to support areas of moderate freezing spray
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Some heavy freezing spray
is possible, with the need for possible headlines being evaluated
in coming forecasts.

Winds will briefly taper Saturday afternoon, as high pressure
around 30.4 inches crosses Lake Michigan, prior to increasing
once more Saturday night, as the feature moves east.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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