NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 061212
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
612 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will continue through
  the morning commute in southeastern Wisconsin before tapering
  off completely.

- Another chance (10-30%) for a quick round of snow overnight
  Saturday into Sunday morning. Minimal accumulations expected.

- Milder temps for start of next week with highs trending above
  normal into midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 613 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Patchy freezing drizzle has been reported along with periods of
light snow across southeastern Wisconsin this morning, with
radar and low clouds indicating that there is potential for this
to continue on and off through approximately 8 AM CST. After
drizzle dissipates and clouds rise this morning, expecting only
a few flurries to remain into midday/early afternoon. As last
remaining precipitation tapers off, expect northwesterly winds
to increase to gust between 30 and 35 mph. A few gusts to 40 mph
remain possible, especially in far southern Wisconsin.

Temperatures this morning are expected to rise as northwesterly
winds are actually bringing in a wing of warmer air before a
strong cold front sweeps southward through the region this
afternoon. Highs will therefore be this morning/early this
afternoon, and are expected to be in the mid 30s. Temperatures
will fall rapidly into the 20s and even upper teens this
afternoon into this evening.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 104 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Today and Tonight:

Snow has begun across southern Wisconsin early this morning. The
mid level frontogenesis band has set up along a line from
Tomahawk to Shawano to Sheboygan. This is the area where the 0.5
inch/hr rates are expected with pockets of up to 1 inch/hr
rates possible. This band is relativity narrow and may shift
slightly north or south over the next couple hours. A shift in
the 700 mb Fgen band would spread out the area of snowfall
totals around an inch. Snow will tapper off and be more
scattered for areas south and west of Sheboygan.

As we head southwest toward Madison there will be potential for
some freezing drizzle to mix in early this morning. The freezing
drizzle can be seen up stream and is dependent on some mid level
WAA. Guidance still has some discrepancies about how far north
this warm nose will move in. Madison will be on the edge of this
freezing light rain/drizzle potential with higher confidence has
you head toward Mineral Point, Darlington and Monroe. There will
also be a potential for a loss of cloud ice as we head into the
3 to 6 AM time frame based on forecast soundings which just
further compounds the freezing drizzle problem for areas south
and west of Madison. Snow and freezing drizzle is expected to
end from north to south during the morning commute. Regardless
of if you personally get snow or freezing drizzle there is a
potential for impacts to the commute. For snow totals are
expected to be around an inch or less and a glaze of freezing
drizzle.

Late this morning into the afternoon, there will be some
lingering upper level PVA which could squeak out a few isolated
flurries. Any flurries that do develop will be negligible. A
cold front will pass later this afternoon into this evening
which will bring in some CAA. Winds will start to increase and
become breezy ahead of the front. Gusts of 30 MPH will be
possible during this time. As the cold front passes, there is
some concern of some strong winds developing as the cold air
aloft cuts through the warmer air near the surface. Should this
happen we would be approaching the 40 MPH threshold for a Wind
Advisory. Regardless of if its 30 or 40 MPH winds if you have
loose items its would be best to bring them in or secure them.

Saturday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper teens
to low 20s with another potential for snow Saturday night. This
next chance for snow will be brought in by a clipper system.
Guidance is still a bit split on track so kept POPs low as there
is a chance that the majority of the snow tracks to our north
and misses southern Wisconsin. Even based on the average among
guidance central and east central Wisconsin are the most likely
to see the snow. This will be a lighter more powder snow and
quick hitting leading to low totals across the board.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 104 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Sunday through Wednesday:

Sunday kicks off the dry conditions and warming temperatures through
at least mid week. Aloft there will be a ridge building in the west
and troughing to our east which puts the state on the edge of rising
heights. At the sfc there will be a broad area of high pressure
gradually pushing east into the the New England and Mid Atlantic
states with low pressure systems to the west in the Plains. Under
this set up, southeast to south winds will take root across the
state and bring in rising temps and dewpoints.

Tuesday looks to be the warmest of the week as the low pressure
systems and upper level troughs advance toward the Great Lakes
Region. At the sfc there looks to be a warm front that will pass
during the day Tuesday which will provide a good push of WAA (looks
to be a dry frontal passage). Looking at the spread among models
there is quiet a range of temperatures. Looking at the box and
whiskers plots for Euro, CAN, and GFS ensembles shows the
interquartile ranges solidly around 38 to 45 degrees which also
tracks with the NBM. This is all well above normal for this time of
year so a warm day for sure (a taste of spring for those looking),
but examining the whiskers for the max and min show some potential
for even higher temps should the WAA be strong enough. From the data
as a whole the GFS is trending colder while the Euro trends warmer
and CAN is in the middle (this is for the entire plot including the
interquartile ranges). Looking at the maximum values does show slim
chances to be in the upper 40s to near 50s. The scope of this would
be very limited if it does even come to fruition with southwestern
and far southern Wisconsin being the locations most likely to have
the warmest temps of the day. Even if the warm front under preforms
and were looking at highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Regardless if
your looking for spring weather, Tuesdays your light in the tunnel.

Precipitation will make its return Tuesday night into Wednesday for
southern Wisconsin. The chances for rain look to continue through
Thursday as guidance shows the potential for a more active period.
Despite this, POPs are around 10-35% for this entire time. This is
because each run is drastically different in timing, location and
strength of the Low (this is up and down the column from 500 mb
to the sfc). This is impacting the duration of precipitation
too. So its getting a bit washed out over these three days. I
wouldn't bank on precip through this entire time, its more
likely to be a single round or maybe even a couple. Precip type
is likely to be mixed and will depend on timing. Tuesday night
looks to favor more rain while slightly cooler temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday could potentially lead to a wintry
mix/increased snow potential. Hard to say at this point so keep
an eye on the forecast.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 613 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Low ceilings in the 700 to 1200 ft range are expected for the
next few hours, along with patchy freezing drizzle and pockets
of light snow in southeastern Wisconsin. Ceilings will improve
as precipitation ends over the next few hours, although
1000-2000 ft ceilings are expected through much of the rest of
the day. This afternoon, drier air is expected to finally
scatter out the low clouds and return the area to VFR.

Northwesterly winds this morning will increase throughout the
day, with gusts up to 30 kt possible during the afternoon to
early evening hours. Winds will remain northwesterly and
gradually diminish overnight, becoming light and variable into
early Saturday morning under high pressure before shifting to
become southeasterly Saturday afternoon as high pressure exits.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 104 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Low pressure around 29.4 inches will track east across James Bay
tonight and enter Quebec by Friday afternoon. As this low moves
east a cold front will move across the Lake Friday afternoon.
Light west winds this evening will turn to northwesterly by day
break. Northwest winds will increase along and behind the cold
front and gradually veer northerly by Friday evening. Gale force
gusts up to 40kt are expected and a Gale Warning is in effect
across the northern two thirds of the lake for these gusts.
Additionally, a period of heavy freezing spray is expected from
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning and have issued a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning. Northerly winds gradually weaken through
the Saturday as high pressure builds across the region. Southerly
winds return with milder temps as the high pressure pushes east
for Sunday.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday
     to midnight Saturday.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
     LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876...10 AM Friday to 3 AM
     Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 AM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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