NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 282014
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
214 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- West to east band of 2-4 inches of snow with narrow swath
  exceeding 4 inches setting up from Iowa/Sauk counties east
  through Ozaukee/northern Milwaukee counties. Lighter snow
  expect outside of the band. Winter Weather Advisory issued.

- Gradually warming trend through next week with periodic
  precipitation chances through the end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 215 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Given upstream obs of 4-6 inches of snow within the core of the
snow band along with webcam images from southeastern MN, have
elected to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the middle tier
of counties from Sauk/Iowa east to Washington/Waukesha counties
until this evening. Still looking +4 inches in the west to east band
surrounding with 1-3 inches outside of the heaviest part.
Otherwise, expect a sharp cutoff in snowfall totals on either
side of the snow band, especially on the north side where strong
Arctic high pressure continues to build south and push drier air
into central WI.

Wagner

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight:

After models bouncing around, finally seeing the band of snow
showing its cards. Seeing the band develop from Sauk County down
through Kenosha early this afternoon. Expect this band to set more
west the east through the afternoon from Sauk/Iowa Counties through
northern Milwaukee/Ozaukee counties. Generally expect the 1-3 inch
accumulations to fall within this corridor. Given the forcing being
850-700mb frontogenesis banding along with reports upstream, could
not rule out seeing totals exceed 3 inches. Main concern with
this band will be the drops in visibility of less than 1 mile
along with quick accumulations of packable snow leaning toward
the drier side. Thus resulting in slick travel conditions,
especially for elevated and untreated surfaces. Given the band
fairly progressive movement along with trends of lower QPF as
drier Arctic air pushes in from the north, think that is enough
to keep totals in the 1-3 inch range and below winter weather
advisory level for our neck of the woods. However, still cannot
rule out a short-fused issuance, especially if the band sits
over an area longer than expected with totals nearing 4 inches.

Otherwise areas across our east central counties from Marquette
through Sheboygan may still see some light snow, but drier air for
the strong Arctic high to the north will limit accumulating snow too
far north. But still could see accumulations generally around an
inch for southern portions of the counties with less than an inch
the further north you go.

Areas south of the band (south of I-94) are bit more saturated and
will also see some snow accumulations, but generally around an inch
or so as the forcing remains to the north.

Expect the band of frontogenesis to wobble through southern WI
through the afternoon before departing in the evening as the
shortwave trough lifts east. However, looking to see northeasterly
flow set up off of Lake Michigan through the evening and tonight.
This looks be enough convergence to form a lake effect band of snow
given delta T's from Lake Michigan and temps aloft around 13C.
While this is borderline threshold for lake effect snow,
especially as the synoptic forcing shifts east, still is a
potential to see additional snowfall for southeastern WI
through tonight and picking up an additional inch or two,
depending on where/if the LES band sets up.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 215 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Sunday through Saturday:

High pressure builds in behind the snow for Sunday with drier and
quiet conditions. Looking at temps in the upper 40s to lower 30s.
Then southerly flow and milder temps return to southern WI for the
start of the week as high pressure slides into the eastern Great
Lakes.

The milder trend will continue through much of the week with near
normal through midweek and the potential for above normal temps
continues through the end of the week.

Accompanying this milder pattern will be a bit more activity with
periodic precip chances beginning Monday night into Tuesday.
Continue to see models and ensemble hint at a mid-level
disturbance traverse across the Midwest as low-level WAA builds
in from the south. Still some question on precip type with this
system being in between the departing colder airmass and ahead
of a warmer one. Thus expect snow to wintry overnight Monday
transition to more of a wintry to rain into Tuesday.

Additional mid-level troughs are expected to trek across the region
midweek through the end of the week, but continue to see timing and
track difference between ensembles/models. Nevertheless milder temps
and increase PoPs chances expected through the end of the week.
Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

West to east orientated band of snow is setting up across
southern WI this afternoon bringing lower visibility (less than
1sm) and ceilings (1-3kft) where the snow rates (around a 0.5
in/hr or more at times) are heaviest. expect the heaviest band
with the greatest flight restriction to set up from DLL/LNR
eastward through MSN and just north of UES/MKE. 1-3 inches of
accumulation expected within this band through the afternoon and
could see pockets of locally higher totals exceeding 3 inches
with in this band. This type of banded snow can wobble and may
see it actually shift south an impact more of UES and MKE.
Otherwise outside of the moderate/heavy band will still see
light snow with lower ceiling to around MVFR along with reduced
visibilities around 4-6sm and accumulations up to an inch. Will
see the snow band work its way through southern WI through the
afternoon and gradually depart to the east through the evening
with some lingering MVFR ceilings toward the lakeshore
terminals. Also could see some additional snow for MKE and ENW
as a potential for a light lake effect snow band sets up this
evening into tonight. ENW has the better potential to be
impacted by this additional band, but still some uncertainty on
where and if it will set up in southeast WI. Otherwise, high
pressure builds in overnight bringing drier conditions,
improving ceilings and lighter winds that will continue into
Sunday. Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 215 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Low pressure continues to lift northeast this afternoon with
breezy northerly winds lingering across the lake through
tonight. Then a strong Arctic high pressure builds across the
Upper Midwest into Sunday and gradually works it way east across
the Upper Great Lakes through Monday. Expect lighter winds to
accompany this high pressure and eventually turn southerly
Monday into midweek. Expect winds to turn more east-southeast
through midweek as a low pressure system develops and lift in
from the Plains.

For the nearshore waters, waves may approach small craft conditions
at times later tonight into Sunday morning south of North Point
Lighthouse, and again Monday afternoon into Tuesday north of Port
Washington. Additional small craft conditions may develop at times
through the end of the week.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063 until 6
     PM Saturday.

     Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ064-WIZ065 until 8
     PM Saturday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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