NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 272146
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
346 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills below zero degrees will continue through Friday,
  with overnight minimum wind chills in the negative teens each
  night.

- A few areas may see wind chills as low as negative 20 degrees
  for a brief period late tonight into early Wednesday morning,
  but these conditions are not expected to last more than a
  couple hours.

- Chances (20 to 40 percent) for lake effect snow showers
  develop across Lake Michigan counties Thursday night and may
  continue through Saturday morning. There is potential for a
  couple inches of snow if snow bands persist onshore, but
  confidence in exact timing and placement is low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 346 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Tonight through Thursday:

Northwesterly winds will continue through the remainder of this
afternoon, becoming less gusty overnight as parent low pressure
exits into Quebec. However, expect sustained winds of 10 to 15
mph as high pressure builds into the northern Plains, keeping
wind chills in the negative 15 to negative 20 degree range late
tonight into early Wednesday morning. Although a few spots may
hit Cold Weather Advisory criteria (negative 20 degrees and
below), not anticipating any area to see criteria for longer
than a couple hours, and not anticipating this to be widespread.
Therefore, will continue to monitor but are not expecting to
need a Cold Weather Advisory tonight. Lows in the negative
single digits are expected.

Wednesday, expect Arctic high pressure to nudge into southern
Wisconsin, with highs in the low teens expected. Winds will
remain northwesterly and breezy, keeping wind chills below zero
degrees throughout the day. Winds will become lighter Wednesday
night, with clear skies allowing for plenty of radiational
cooling. Expect lows in the negative single digits, with perhaps
areas in southwestern to central Wisconsin seeing lows in the
negative teens. Again expecting wind chills to fall into the
negative 15 to negative 20 degree range, although lower winds
will likely lead to fewer spots getting to negative 20 degrees.

Thursday, low pressure developing in the southern Plains will
tilt winds to northerly and light while high pressure in the
northern Plains strengthens and noses into Wisconsin. Expect
clear skies and highs around 10 degrees.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 346 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Thursday night into Friday morning, expecting wind chills in the
negative teens once again across the majority of southern
Wisconsin.

As low pressure in the southern Plains organizes Thursday night
and progresses eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley,
expecting winds over Lake Michigan to shift northeasterly while
northwest winds linger over inland regions with high pressure to
the northwest. With these factors in play, agree with model
portrayal of a steady lake effect band across central portions
of Lake Michigan developing overnight and potentially wobbling
westward to impact Lake Michigan lakeshore counties. Timing and
exact placement of this wobble is still uncertain due to the
coarseness of the model resolution at this range, but with
relatively warm water and a very cold airmass cannot ignore the
signal. This band looks to linger through Friday night as low
pressure slowly propagates eastward through the Southeast U.S.
and high pressure strengthens over the northern Plains, keeping
the convergence zone firmly in place. Eventually the band will
permanently retreat eastward (Saturday morning at the latest),
with a few inches of total accumulation in some areas along the
lakeshore by this point.

High pressure slides back into the central and southern Plains
Saturday, bringing northerly winds and clearing skies across
southern Wisconsin. A clipper system developing on the northern
edges of this high will propagate eastward through Minnesota on
Sunday, allowing for southwesterly winds in southern Wisconsin
and highs in the 20s above zero. This clipper then propagates
through central Wisconsin, bringing widespread steady snow to
southern and central Wisconsin Sunday night into Monday. Quiet
weather with lows in the single digits and highs in the 20s is
expected Monday through Tuesday.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 346 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions and clearing skies expected this evening, with
clear skies and steady northwest winds around 10 kt expected
throughout tonight. A few clouds in the upper levels may
develop going into Wednesday morning, with a few clouds around
2000 ft near Lake Michigan as well. Gusts up to 20 kt develop
Wednesday afternoon, diminishing again Wednesday evening. All
winds remain northwesterly through Wednesday night. Expect VFR
conditions Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night as well.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 346 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Elevated waves and cold temperatures will support heavy freezing
spray across the open waters through this evening, with gusty
northwest winds keep conditions hazardous for small craft in
nearshore waters of southern Wisconsin. A Heavy Freezing Spray
Warning is in effect until 6 PM CST for the northern third, and
until 9 PM CST for the southern two thirds. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect through 6 PM CST for the southern
Wisconsin nearshore zones. Patchy moderate to heavy freezing
spray is possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night for
the southern half of the open waters.

Northwesterly winds will slowly diminish this evening and tonight
as low pressure in eastern Ontario exits into Quebec and high
pressure builds through the northern Plains. High pressure will
linger across the northern Plains through the week, keeping
winds northwesterly. High pressure will strengthen into Friday
as weak low pressure progresses through the Middle Mississippi
Valley, turning winds briefly northerly to even northeasterly.
Waves may build to Small Craft Advisory criteria during this
time. Winds shift back to north-northwesterly and increase
Friday night. Moderate to heavy freezing spray will likely
develop once again over open waters as northwesterly winds
continue through Saturday.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
     LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 9 PM Tuesday.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563
     until 6 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Tuesday.

&&

$$

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