NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 032359
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
659 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasingly warm and continued low relative humidity days
  through Thursday. Elevated fire weather conditions are
  possible Thursday.

- Increasing humidity and thunderstorm chances for late Thursday
  night through Saturday. A 1 out of 5 (marginal) risk for
  severe storms is forecast Friday into Friday night, but
  confidence in potential severe storm timing is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 659 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Lake breeze has made it to the Kettle Moraine this evening,
bringing temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Farther inland,
temperatures around 80 degrees continue. All temperatures will
fall into the mid-50s overnight tonight.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

Tonight through most of the day Thursday the upper ridge and
corresponding surface high in the eastern US appear likely to
hang on keeping us largely dry through then. Thursday will
likely reach the mid 80s for highs with fairly low dewpoints and
modestly breezy conditions and given the RHs expected to be low
in the 25-35% range. Given drying fuels for parts of southern WI
elevated fire weather conditions could be expected.

Higher clouds will likely start pushing in later Thursday as a
shortwave and weak surface low pressure nudges in from the west.
Later Thursday and more specifically Thursday night we should
see the forcing measures slide in with increasing chances for
showers and weak thunderstorms. CAMs have largely limited much
of the overnight potential but closer to daybreak Friday we see
some of that activity push in. Larger scale models have the
northwest parts of the CWA seeing earlier nighttime activity
which is something to watch for but more widespread activity
would likely hold off a bit longer.

Friday, while uncertain on exactly what could be expected to
occur, the general outlook is of shortwave activity aloft
combined with increased LLJ activity and low level pressure
fields fronts all playing a role pointing toward an active
weather day in some capacity. Severe concern seems limited at
this time given models showing limited shear (25-40kts 0-6km).
There may be enough with some LLJ activity to bring some
concerns into Friday evening. The other concern that might
become more concerning is a potential flash flood threat if we
can get some training storms due to PWATs in the 1.5-2.0 inch
range. Otherwise Friday into Friday night looks to be a case of
if-then. If we clear the morning storms and showers earlier then
it will leave a window of recovery ahead of the front which
could enable an opportunity for some stronger evening storms.
However, if the morning convection takes longer it may become
the primary convection likely limiting severe risk (limited
shear during the day), certainly in scope and recovery into the
evening may not be as likely and limit higher end potential
along the front. In any case we will be watching for other
disturbances that may throw a wrench into everything, like
perhaps a lingering MCV, which is why there is higher
uncertainty on exactly what might occur.

In any case expect the front to come through late Friday night
into early Saturday morning with some storms potentially
lingering into Saturday morning depending of the fronts
progression but developing high pressure to the north and
troughing pushing east should push activity south of the CWA by
Saturday morning. Some models keep some activity possible beyond
earlier Saturday morning but limited midlevel moisture and lack
of forcing seems unlikely at this time.

Note: Moderate swim conditions likely to be present for
Sheboygan Thursday afternoon with wave heights approaching 3-4
ft but given latest trends should stay below high swim risk.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Saturday night through Wednesday:

The upper low is expected to move east, bringing a shortwave
ridge though western WI Saturday night, decreasing the potential
for continued rainfall. However, the precipitable water values of
around 1.2" and high humidity could increase the chances of
precipitation into early Sunday.

The slow-moving shortwave ridge is expected to remain over
northeastern WI through Sunday morning and afternoon. A surface
low pressure system over the Plains could increase the chance of
precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning, with
westerly/northwesterly winds bringing moisture to WI. The
precipitable water values Sunday afternoon into the evening
increase from around 0.9" to 1.6". Dewpoints will remain in the
mid 60s Sunday into Monday morning.

As the shortwave ridge begins to move further toward Michigan and
Ontario, a surface low is expected to move northeast from the
Plains towards WI, creating the potential for precipitation
Tuesday and Wednesday (20-40%). The attendant warm and humid
airmass will bring chances for thunderstorms as well, particularly
if a wave of convection were to initiate in the afternoon or
evening.

Zawlocki

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 659 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions will continue through tonight and Thursday. Light
southerly winds are expected to continue through sunset along
and west of the Kettle Moraine, while Lakeshore terminals
through KUES will see gusty southeasterly winds off Lake
Michigan. Winds will become light and variable to calm shortly
after sunset, continuing into Thursday morning. Winds then
shift to become southwesterly around 12 kt gusting to 20 kt
midday Thursday into Thursday evening. Isolated showers may
begin to develop from KMSN westward Thursday evening.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

High pressure around 30.4 inches will shift to the eastern US
tonight. Light southerly winds tonight over the lake will become
a bit breezy especially over the northern half into Thursday.
Modest south to southwest winds will then prevail over the lake
for into Saturday morning followed by a wind shift to the
northwest during a cold frontal passage. Shower and storm
chances will return Friday into Saturday morning. High pressure
around 30.1 inches will redevelop to the north and envelop the
region Sunday bringing light and variable winds back to the
lake.

Otherwise and Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for
Thursday afternoon and early evening for Port Washington to
Sheboygan with wave heights creeping up into the 4 foot range
for a period.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...2 PM Thursday to 10 PM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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