NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 150554
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1154 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures remaining 10-20+ degrees above normal
  through Wednesday.

- Widespread rain expected (~50-80+% chances) Tuesday night into
  Wednesday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Low chances
  (10-30%) for precip linger into Wednesday night.

- Additional precipitation chances (~25-45%) Thursday into
  Friday. Both rain and snow are possible.

- Colder conditions are likely to return next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

The Rest of Tonight through Monday:

A weak shortwave will slide through tonight into early Sunday
morning, with limited moisture and lift resulting in mainly
scattered mid and high level clouds. There should be a fair
amount of sunshine by late Sun morning and afternoon, as high
pressure centered to the southwest moves through the region.
Temps aloft look nearly identical Sunday afternoon as this last
afternoon, so highs should be similar, well above normal into
low to mid 50s. With prevailing light northwest winds, models
are showing less of a chance at a lake breeze developing, so
highs will probably be a bit warmer near the lake than early
today.

Even milder conditions are likely on Monday as southerly
low level flow develops behind the departing high and ahead of a
an approaching trough and associated cold front. Latest models
suggest the front will drop through the northern half of the
forecast area through late afternoon and the south by mid-
evening. The current frontal timing would still allow for well
above temps across the forecast area, the warmest in the south
where the front will arrive latest. Still looks like highs could
approach or crack 60 in at least the south. Moisture looks
limited as the front drops southward through the area, so kept
the forecast dry.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

Cooler temps are likely during the day Tuesday on the back side
of the cold front. Easterly winds across southern Wisconsin
will help keep things cooler as well, particularly near the
lake. The frontal boundary will then lift back into the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, as strong low pressure moves from
the Northern Plains into Wisconsin. Increasing moisture along
with decent forcing ahead of the low will likely result in a
round of rain Tue evening into early Wednesday morning. A rumble
or two of thunder still looks possible given the expected
surface low track passing by just to the northwest of the
forecast area.

The remainder of Wednesday through the day Thursday is looking
mainly dry between low pressure systems. Another low is then
expected to push through the area Thursday night into Friday,
bringing more precip chances to southern Wisconsin. The overall
picture among models currently suggests the this will be a rain
transitioning to snow setup, with the surface low tracking over
or just to the south of the forecast area. There hasn't been
great model run to run consistency with this system though, so
plenty of time for the details to change. Dry weather and
colder conditons are then expected to move in for the weekend
as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light and variable winds most places tonight will become
northwest around 5 knots by mid-morning Sunday, returning to
light and variable late afternoon and evening. There is a chance
winds could turn onshore for a time near the lake mid to late
afternoon. Clear skies are expected much of the time through Sun
night, other than a few passing mid and high level clouds at
times.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light southerly winds are expected tonight as weak low pressure
of 29.9 inches approaches from the northwest, moving through
northern Lake Michigan early Sunday. Light northwest to north
winds will then develop Sunday behind the low and associated
weak front. Southerly winds will develop again Sunday night into
Monday ahead of another approaching low and front, with the low
of 29.7 inches moving through the northern lake during the day
Monday. Northerly winds Monday night behind the front will
become easterly Tuesday morning ahead of the next approaching
low pressure system.

East to southeast winds will increase later Tuesday into
Tuesday night as the stronger low draws near, with winds to
around 30 knots possible. A few gales could be possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday, depending on the strength of the low,
though the warmer airmass over the chilly lake waters will limit
mixing down of higher gusts. The best chance for any gales will
be across northern portions of the lake. There is increasing
confidence that a Small Craft Advisory will eventually be needed
for the nearshore waters from Tuesday evening through the day
Wednesday, given the elevated onshore winds and building waves.


DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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