NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion
FXUS63 KMKX 182122
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
322 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through Monday
morning. Light accumulating snowfall is expected this
afternoon and evening, with totals around 1 to 2 inches. Gusty
northwest winds late tonight into Monday morning will then
lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. Slick spots on
pavement and periods of reduced visibility are expected.
- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect late tonight through
Monday morning across all of southern Wisconsin. Bitter cold
wind chills of 22 to 29 below zero are expected during this
period. Wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero are then expected
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.
- A Gale Warning is in effect for all of Lake Michigan later
tonight through Monday afternoon. A Heavy Freezing Spray
Warning is in effect as well later tonight through Tuesday
morning.
- Accumulating snow is looking likely (55-70% chances) Tuesday
night into Wednesday.
- Polar to arctic air (cold temperatures) will prevail through
this week and next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 315 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Tonight through Monday night:
Light accumulating snow has begun to fall across the region, and
our best guess is that the expected 1 to 2 inch totals (now thru
late this evening) are generally on track. We wouldn't be too
surprised to see some slightly higher totals in a few spots
given how high the snow-to-liquid ratios are with this extremely
powdery / fluffy snow. Generally seeing visibility dropouts to
around 2 miles at times, with brief periods of around 1/2 mile.
The Winter Weather Advisory does cover this phase of the event,
but the primary window of "Advisory level conditions" will
actually occur after the snow winds down late tonight.
An arctic cold front crosses the region this evening, with
strong northwest winds (30 to 40 MPH gusts) behind it. These
gusty winds, arriving around or after midnight tonight, will
lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. Broken low-altitude
clouds will linger tonight and tomorrow morning and could even
produce a few flurries, but the main story will be the bitter
cold wind chills (air temps around or just below zero, wind
chills of 22 to 29 below zero), slick spots on pavement due to
drifting snow, and areas of reduced visibility due to blowing
snow. All of these are expected to impact AM travel, hence we
have both a Winter Weather Advisory and Cold Weather Advisory in
effect. Both are set to expire mid day Monday as the northwest
winds begin to gradually decelerate.
Dry weather expected Monday and Monday night. Daytime high temps
in the single digits above zero, lows in the single digits
below zero. Wind chills through this period will be 10 to 20
below zero.
Sheppard
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 315 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Tuesday through Sunday:
Polar or arctic air will prevail during this period.
A weak surface ridge will pass Tue into early Tue evening with
cold temps continuing. A shortwave trough will then track from the
nrn high plains to srn WI and nrn IL by 12Z Wed. A wave of low
pressure will accompany this feature and track across nrn IL into
lower MI with some differences on this track among the models. A
nose of 50 kt low level jet will support low to mid level warm
advection and frontogenesis supported aloft by PVA and warm
advection at the jet level. A narrow west to east band of several
inches of snow will be possible whether its in srn WI or nrn IL.
Areas of light snow may then linger into Wed.
Modest cyclogenesis will be underway over the nrn Great Lakes for
Wed-Wed nt while another shortwave trough approaches from the nw
and tracks across srn WI Wed nt along with a wave of low pressure
and cold front. These features also differ in strength among the
models with only small chances for light snow forecast at this
time, but trending higher. Wly winds and cold advection will
continue into Thu.
From Thu into Fri a large upper low will move into wrn Ontario
from central Canada then shift ewd into Quebec. It trailing
trough axis will force a strong arctic front across srn WI Thu nt
with frigid conditions to follow. A 1045 mb high may shift ewd
across the region Fri nt-Sat with a lingering sfc ridge into Sat
nt. This frigid air mass will likely be the coldest of the season
and possibly in years. Stay tuned!
Gehring
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 315 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Light to briefly moderate accumulating snow continues this
afternoon and evening, with totals in the ballpark of 1 to 2
inches. Periods of IFR visibility to 2 SM (briefly down to 1/2
SM) are expected at times, with cloud ceilings predominantly
MVFR around 1,000 to 3,000 ft. Light southwesterly surface winds
accompany the snow, with a brief intensification of the snow
possible as an arctic cold front crosses the region this
evening.
Behind this front (around or after midnight tonight), strong
northwesterly winds with gusts of 30 to 35 KT arrive, leading to
areas of blowing and drifting snow, with pockets of reduced
visibility (the Winter Weather Advisory was issued primarily for
the blowing snow phase of the event). Low ceilings gradually
scatter out around or after dawn Monday morning, and areas of
blowing snow persist until around midday (when northwest winds
gradually decelerate). Low clouds do linger into the afternoon,
but our best guess is scattered coverage.
Sheppard
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 315 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Coming soon.
Sheppard
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-
WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069 until noon Monday.
Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...3 AM
Monday to noon Monday.
Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-
WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 PM Sunday
to noon Monday.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...midnight
Monday to 6 PM Monday.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...midnight Monday to noon Tuesday.
Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...midnight Monday
to noon Monday.
&&
$$
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FXUS63 KMKX 182125
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
325 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through Monday
morning. Light accumulating snowfall is expected this
afternoon and evening, with totals around 1 to 2 inches. Gusty
northwest winds late tonight into Monday morning will then
lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. Slick spots on
pavement and periods of reduced visibility are expected.
- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect late tonight through
Monday morning across all of southern Wisconsin. Bitter cold
wind chills of 22 to 29 below zero are expected during this
period. Wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero are then expected
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.
- A Gale Warning is in effect for all of Lake Michigan later
tonight through Monday afternoon. A Heavy Freezing Spray
Warning is in effect as well later tonight through Tuesday
morning.
- Accumulating snow is looking likely (55-70% chances) Tuesday
night into Wednesday.
- Polar to arctic air (cold temperatures) will prevail through
this week and next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 315 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Tonight through Monday night:
Light accumulating snow has begun to fall across the region, and
our best guess is that the expected 1 to 2 inch totals (now thru
late this evening) are generally on track. We wouldn't be too
surprised to see some slightly higher totals in a few spots
given how high the snow-to-liquid ratios are with this extremely
powdery / fluffy snow. Generally seeing visibility dropouts to
around 2 miles at times, with brief periods of around 1/2 mile.
The Winter Weather Advisory does cover this phase of the event,
but the primary window of "Advisory level conditions" will
actually occur after the snow winds down late tonight.
An arctic cold front crosses the region this evening, with
strong northwest winds (30 to 40 MPH gusts) behind it. These
gusty winds, arriving around or after midnight tonight, will
lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. Broken low-altitude
clouds will linger tonight and tomorrow morning and could even
produce a few flurries, but the main story will be the bitter
cold wind chills (air temps around or just below zero, wind
chills of 22 to 29 below zero), slick spots on pavement due to
drifting snow, and areas of reduced visibility due to blowing
snow. All of these are expected to impact AM travel, hence we
have both a Winter Weather Advisory and Cold Weather Advisory in
effect. Both are set to expire mid day Monday as the northwest
winds begin to gradually decelerate.
Dry weather expected Monday and Monday night. Daytime high temps
in the single digits above zero, lows in the single digits
below zero. Wind chills through this period will be 10 to 20
below zero.
Sheppard
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 315 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Tuesday through Sunday:
Polar or arctic air will prevail during this period.
A weak surface ridge will pass Tue into early Tue evening with
cold temps continuing. A shortwave trough will then track from the
nrn high plains to srn WI and nrn IL by 12Z Wed. A wave of low
pressure will accompany this feature and track across nrn IL into
lower MI with some differences on this track among the models. A
nose of 50 kt low level jet will support low to mid level warm
advection and frontogenesis supported aloft by PVA and warm
advection at the jet level. A narrow west to east band of several
inches of snow will be possible whether its in srn WI or nrn IL.
Areas of light snow may then linger into Wed.
Modest cyclogenesis will be underway over the nrn Great Lakes for
Wed-Wed nt while another shortwave trough approaches from the nw
and tracks across srn WI Wed nt along with a wave of low pressure
and cold front. These features also differ in strength among the
models with only small chances for light snow forecast at this
time, but trending higher. Wly winds and cold advection will
continue into Thu.
From Thu into Fri a large upper low will move into wrn Ontario
from central Canada then shift ewd into Quebec. It trailing
trough axis will force a strong arctic front across srn WI Thu nt
with frigid conditions to follow. A 1045 mb high may shift ewd
across the region Fri nt-Sat with a lingering sfc ridge into Sat
nt. This frigid air mass will likely be the coldest of the season
and possibly in years. Stay tuned!
Gehring
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 315 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Light to briefly moderate accumulating snow continues this
afternoon and evening, with totals in the ballpark of 1 to 2
inches. Periods of IFR visibility to 2 SM (briefly down to 1/2
SM) are expected at times, with cloud ceilings predominantly
MVFR around 1,000 to 3,000 ft. Light southwesterly surface winds
accompany the snow, with a brief intensification of the snow
possible as an arctic cold front crosses the region this
evening.
Behind this front (around or after midnight tonight), strong
northwesterly winds with gusts of 30 to 35 KT arrive, leading to
areas of blowing and drifting snow, with pockets of reduced
visibility (the Winter Weather Advisory was issued primarily for
the blowing snow phase of the event). Low ceilings gradually
scatter out around or after dawn Monday morning, and areas of
blowing snow persist until around midday (when northwest winds
gradually decelerate). Low clouds do linger into the afternoon,
but our best guess is scattered coverage.
Sheppard
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 330 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Low pressure will deepen to 29.5 inches over the northern Great
Lakes by sunrise Monday and sweep an arctic front across the lake
after midnight tonight. Northwest gales will develop and last
through Monday afternoon with a Gale Warning in effect, while a
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning will also go into effect and last
through Tuesday morning.
High pressure around 30.5 inches will shift across the southern
and eastern portion of the country for Tuesday into Wednesday,
supporting modest west to southwest winds over Lake Michigan.
A couple more cold frontal passages will bring a return of brisk
west to northwest winds for later Wednesday through Friday.
Heavy freezing spray may also return.
Gehring
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-
WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069 until noon Monday.
Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...3 AM
Monday to noon Monday.
Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-
WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until noon
Monday.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...midnight
Monday to 6 PM Monday.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...midnight Monday to noon Tuesday.
Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...midnight Monday
to noon Monday.
&&
$$
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Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
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