NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

 

						FXUS63 KMKX 110740
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
240 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 240 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020)

Today through Wednesday:

High pressure is expected to move slowly east across the region
today and tonight, then move slowly east of the region on
Wednesday. The high will bring quiet weather with mostly clear
skies to the area during this period.

May see light ground fog in low lying areas early this morning,
and again early Wednesday morning, with more robust fog in the
Wisconsin River Valley.

Warm temperatures are expected, with lower 80s today followed by
middle 80s for Wednesday. A lake breeze will develop each
afternoon near Lake Michigan.

JJW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 240 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020)

Wednesday night and Thursday:

Protective ridging looks to remain over the area through Thursday
resulting in the drier, more stable east to southeasterly low
level flow. A warm front will be developing to the west across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest as deeper moisture returns to
that area on a strengthening low level jet Wednesday night. We
will likely see some mid-high cloud blowoff from upstream
convection during this period. Medium range guidance does show a
weak mid-level circulation moving across southern WI Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, but forecast soundings remain dry and
stable. May keep a slight chance in on Thursday, but it is looking
dry for most, if not all of the period.

Thursday night through Monday:

Protective ridge across the Great Lakes does eventually weaken and
succumb to pieces of short wave energy rotating around increasing
long wave trof across southern Canada as it spreads into the
Northern Plains late in the week. A stronger piece of energy
passing well to the north will bring a cold front or pair of
fronts across Wisconsin sometime Friday night through the weekend.
Deeper moisture will have a chance to return to the area by the
weekend, so shower and tstorm chances will be on the increase.
Most of the period will likely be dry, but we will likely have
several bouts of scattered precipitation. Difficult to say at this
point whether stronger convection can be expected due to uncertainty
as to the timing and strength of the passing synoptic features.
At this time, Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning looks like
the most favored time for convection.

Daytime temperatures look to remain seasonal or a little above
normal for mid-August. Drier and less humid conditions look to
return for the start of next week.

MBK

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 240 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020)

For the 12Z TAFs:

High pressure will bring clear skies and light winds across the
area today into Wednesday. May see light ground fog in low lying
areas early this morning, and again early Wednesday morning, with
more robust fog in the Wisconsin River Valley. A east to
southeast lake breeze is expected this afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon, and affect the terminals near Lake Michigan.

JJW

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 240 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020)

High pressure moving east across the region today into Wednesday
will bring quiet weather to Lake Michigan. Gusty southwest winds
are expected this afternoon and evening over the northern half of
the lake, becoming light later tonight into Wednesday. Light winds
are expected over the south half of the lake during this time.

The high will continue to move east of the region Wednesday night
into Friday. Modest east to southeast winds are expected during
most of this period over Lake Michigan.

JJW

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$