NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 270016 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
716 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will continue to push southward and out of the area by
  middle to late evening. Some light snow may mix in with the
  rain before ending. No accumulations are expected. Gusty north
  northeast winds should linger into tonight, with colder
  temperatures.

- Cooler conditions will persist Friday, with scattered snow
  showers possible Friday afternoon and evening (15 to 40
  percent chance). Highest confidence towards east central
  Wisconsin.

- Return to warmer temperatures for this weekend into early next
  week.

- Trending active next week, with multiple chances for showers
  and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 716 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

An area of mainly light rain will continue to push southward
this evening, exiting the far southern counties by middle to
late evening. This is generally being driven by 700 to 500 mb
frontogenesis response. Cold air advection on the backside of
the area of light rain with the gusty north northeast winds may
bring a mix of light snow before ending. No accumulations are
expected, as the ground temperatures should remain mild enough
to melt any snow that mixes in. The gusty north northeast winds
will linger tonight, with cold air advection bringing colder
temperatures into the area. These winds should help dry out
roads overnight, so not expecting impacts from slick spots.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

After a quick intense burst of winds along the cold front this
morning, north-northeasterly winds have settled in to gust
between 30 and 35 mph this afternoon. Winds will continue
through tonight, potentially reaching 40 mph near Lake Michigan
overnight. Showers are in the process of becoming widespread
(80% coverage) this afternoon, with rain then continuing into
this evening before tapering off west to east. An isolated bolt
of lightning is possible across far southern Wisconsin this
afternoon (~15% chance).

Temperatures will continue to fall through this afternoon as
CAA continues. Shortly after sunset, expect widespread
temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Overnight after
precipitation ends and Arctic high pressure presses southward,
expect temperatures to fall into the low 20s (upper 20s near
Lake Michigan).

Friday, light northerly winds in the morning will shift to
become northwesterly as high pressure builds in the central
Plains and a 500 mb shortwave propagates eastward through the
upper level ridging. Northwest winds will become gusty between
20 and 25 mph during the afternoon hours. This shortwave will
also be capable of producing brief, quick-moving snow showers in
central to southeastern Wisconsin. These showers are expected
to be scattered (15 to 25% coverage), and produce minimal
accumulations. Still, may see briefly reduced visibilities
underneath heavier showers. Highs in the upper 30s within the
cloud cover of these showers, and in the low 40s elsewhere.

Shortwave moves offshore into Friday night, with winds
diminishing after sunset as Arctic high pressure builds in from
the Plains. Expect lows in the low 20s.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure overhead will keep thing quiet, dry and cool for
Saturday across southern WI. Only looking at highs in the 40s
with a few spots in southwestern WI approaching 50F. However as
the high pressure pushes off to the east-southeast, upper-level
ridge builds as southerly low-level flow and WAA pattern will
begins to take hold over the region for the end of the weekend
into the start of next week. Above normal temps will steadily
rise each day beginning Sunday topping off in the 60s for inland
locations, but we are entering the "cooler by the lake" season
so lakeshore areas will remain cooler by 5-15 degrees. Expecting
even warmer temps for Monday into Tuesday with the persisting
WAA pattern before the potential front pushes through by
midweek.

Accompanying this spring warm up will be a more active weather
pattern. The WPC cluster analysis shows the upper-level ridge
axis shifting east with a series of troughs swinging across the
region through the middle of next week. Still plenty of
uncertainty as timing and strength of the troughs and
accompanying surface feature remain variable. Nevertheless,
looking at a more active pattern in the extended with daily
precip and thunderstorm chances beginning Tuesday. Timing and
location will ultimately depend on the systems track as well of
the timing and movement of the frontal passage or if it stalls
over the area.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 716 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

An area of mainly light rain will continue to push southward
this evening, exiting the far southern terminals by middle to
late evening. Colder air moving in on the backside of the light
rain with the gusty north northeast winds may bring a mix of
light snow before ending. No accumulations are expected, as the
ground temperatures should remain mild enough to melt any snow
that mixes in.

Visibility should range from 3 to 6 miles with the
precipitation, with ceilings in the 1000 to 2000 foot AGL range,
and lower amounts down to around 500 feet AGL possible at times
for Milwaukee, Waukesha and Kenosha.

The gusty north northeast winds will linger tonight. These
winds should help dry out runways overnight, so not expecting
impacts from slick spots. Winds will briefly weaken and shift to
the north in the morning and northwest by midday into the
afternoon. The northwest winds will become gusty, with gusts to
around 20 knots possible in the afternoon.

Scattered snow showers are expected Friday afternoon and early
evening, with visibility down to 1 mile or less possible for
around 10 minutes or so in the heaviest snow showers. There
could be a dusting of snow from these snow showers, most likely
toward Sheboygan. Added a PROB30 group for this potential Friday
afternoon at the Sheboygan terminal.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

High pressure of 30.7 inches will press from the Canadian
Prairies southward into the Northern Plains tonight into Friday
morning as low pressure of 29.5 inches in Illinois slides
eastward. This will bring gusty north winds to Lake Michigan.
Expecting widespread gales of 35 to 40 kt across the southern
two-thirds of the Lake, with a few isolated gales to 35 kt
possible across the northern third. Winds will gradually
diminish late tonight into Friday morning as high pressure
builds into the northern Plains and western portions of the
Upper Midwest. High pressure will continue to slide
southeastward on Friday, with northwesterly winds developing as
it passes to the south Friday night. Winds will gradually back
to southerly into Saturday afternoon as low pressure around 29.7
inches develops in the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Winds then
remain south-southwesterly through Monday as ridging builds
across the southeast U.S.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-
     LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 5 AM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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