NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 280402
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1102 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High swim risk conditions will continue into Wednesday
  morning along all Lake Michigan beaches due to high waves and
  currents. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect.

- Warm and humid conditions return Thursday. Showers and
  thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening through Saturday,
  but are most likely Friday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Overnight through Wednesday:

The leading edge of the cold front is finally making it into
southern WI late this evening as the weak surface low moves into
lower Michigan. We can see a wind shift to the north, but temps
and dewpoints are still elevated. Lows tonight will be in the
60s. There are a few low clouds out there (patchy stratus), and
we cannot rule out some patchy fog once again.

The surface low will continue eastward Tuesday as an upper
trough becomes a little more amplified over the Great Lakes.
That slight amplification will help increase the northerly winds
over Lake Michigan and push the cooler and drier air from
northern WI into southern WI by daybreak. A period of low clouds
is expected just behind the front early Tuesday morning, but
the dry air and mixing (with steady north-northeast winds) will
quickly bring sunny skies for the rest of the day.

The Nighttime Microphysics IR composite satellite channel is
showing some upwelling along the Wisconsin coastline of Lake
Michigan. This should help enhance a lake breeze tomorrow and
bring even cooler temps to the lakeshore in the afternoon. High
temperatures will range from the low-mid 70s near the lakeshore
to the lower-mid 80s inland. A pocket up upper 80s is expected
in southwest WI. The biggest change will be the dewpoints. They
got into the upper 70s today and they will only be around 60
Tuesday.

Visible satellite had a milky appearance behind this front when
it was in northeast MN and Lake Superior this afternoon. The
HRRR & RRFS Smoke models are showing fair amounts of vertically
integrated smoke right behind the front in the morning, but then
more diffuse values in the afternoon. The surface smoke forecast
is much lower and nothing like the values we saw a week and a
half ago.

Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s under light winds and clear skies. Patchy fog is possible.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Thursday through Monday:

High pressure will begin to push east on Thursday, allowing for
southwesterly sfc return flow over Wisconsin. While the lingering
high should keep us dry through the day, surface dew points will
modestly moisten into the mid to upper 60s, with afternoon highs
again returning to the upper 80s.

Thursday night into Friday, low to mid level warm advection is
expected ahead of an approaching elongated trough over the western
Corn Belt. Showers and storms are expected on the leading edge of
this warm advection, but deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS
differ in the track of the trough and storms for the day on
Friday. The GFS favors a more northerly track that would keep rain
around for most of the day on Friday, while the ECMWF guidance
favors a more southerly track that would bring us a glancing blow
of rain in the morning, with drier conditions in the afternoon.
NBM PoPs somewhat favor the GFS solution at this time bringing
likely PoPs (~60%) into our area Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Chance PoPs (30 to 45%) then linger into Saturday
morning as the trough slowly pulls away to the east and south.

A sfc ridge will then build in behind the exiting trough,
promoting dry conditions for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
Friday through Sunday will remain seasonable with highs in the low
80s. By the end of the extended period, it looks like another
ridge from the plains leans east into Wisconsin, bringing warmer
temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 on Tuesday.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Winds are shifting to the north late this evening and we can
expect an increase in those northerly winds toward daybreak as
cooler and drier air push into southern WI. There are a few
patches of low clouds out there due to the lingering high
dewpoints. Cannot rule out patchy fog as well.

A period of MVFR ceilings is possible during the early morning
hours in the wake of that cold front. This should be short-lived
and dry air will help to mix out the low clouds by mid-late
morning. There could be smoke in the air behind the front, but
not expecting a reduction in visibility at the surface. Any
smoke will become more diffuse through the day.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Low pressure around 29.5 inches over central Lake Michigan will
move to the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. The associated
cold front will track southward across Lake Michigan tonight. T
Northerly winds are expected to gust around 30 kt over central and
southern Lake Michigan late tonight through Tuesday. Much lighter
northerly winds are then expected late Tuesday night into
Wednesday as high pressure around 30.0 inches builds into the
northern Great Lakes. The high will maintain light winds for
Thursday and Friday as well, but winds will take on a more
southerly direction.

There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the nearshore zone
of southeast WI until late Tuesday night due to persistent
northerly winds up to 25 kt and 3 to 5 foot waves.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 10 AM Wednesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 1 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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