NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 040443
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue Saturday into the
  first half of Sunday. Organized severe storms are not
  expected, though a few storms will produce gusty downburst
  winds Saturday late morning through mid afternoon. Lightning
  remains the biggest risk for Independence Day activities.

- A seasonably warm, comfortable airmass will enter the area the
  first few days of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Today and Tonight:

The weather pattern is a bit messy across the region early this
morning. Multiple rounds of convection have resulted in a good
amount of overturning, with a decent amount of CIN and around
500 J/kg of CAPE. Evening storms have shifted deeper into IL and
lingering light rain showers will gradually end over the next
couple of hours.

Convection is perking back up in Central IA in response to an
increasing low level jet, with other convective complexes
growing over NE and the Dakotas. System motion vectors are
easterly to east southeasterly overnight and with lingering
boundaries south of the region, shower/thunderstorms chances
will trend toward the slight category, with chances in our far
southwest toward daybreak pending the behavior of the convection
in IA/NE.

Saturday will once again be warm/humid with weak deep shear
(25kt) and MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg give or take. Overall there
is a lack of focusing mechanisms Saturday, which results in a
rather uncertain PoP forecast. Certainly there will be enough
heating to pop scattered showers/storms from late morning
through much of the afternoon. Given CAPE/shear profiles,
organized severe weather is not expected, though pulse-like
localized downbursts are plausible.

A potential fly in the ointment for tomorrow is whether or not
convection to our west tonight develops an MCV or lingering vort
max. While there are no model indications of this, the potential
is there given ongoing convection.

Assuming no MCV/vort activity Saturday afternoon, there should
be a gradual downward trend in shower/storm chances heading into
the evening hours. There has also been a very distinct signal in
the guidance to produce easterly flow spreading in across Lake
Michigan into southern Wisconsin during the late afternoon and
evening hours. This may induce a lake breeze and further shunt
rain chances to the west with time.

Gagan

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

Scattered shower/storm chances will linger into at least the
first half of Sunday and an upper trough shifts to the
southeast. From a large scale perspective, this trough passage
will result in a pattern change, with the eastern CONUS ridge
breaking down and a ridge building over the Rockies.

Northwest flow aloft will send a few waves our way from time to
time next week with some signal for a decent upper wave passing
through in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Otherwise expect seasonable
temperatures with lows in the 60s and highs in the low/mid 80s.
Dewpoints will be less oppressive for the first half of the
week, dropping back in the low/mid 60s.

Gagan

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Light showers will continue to slow exit to the east, lingering
another hour or two at MKE/ENW. With mid/high clouds lingering
most of the night, any fog potential with clearing will be
localized. There is enough of a signal to include the the
MSN/JVL TAFs with the 06z update.

Tomorrow we will once again be warm and humid, though pinpoint
focus areas for shower/storm development is a bit more
difficult. Late morning through the afternoon appears to be the
time frame of most concern as scattered showers/storms develop
with peak heating. Lightning is the main concern though
localized wind gusts are possible. Residence time of any
showers/storms preclude including MVFR ceiling/visibility.
Overall, light/variable winds are expected Saturday morning,
but the past several runs of available guidance indicate a wind
shift to easterly during the afternoon.

At this time, shower/storm coverage looks to decrease during the
early evening hours with mid/high clouds lingering.

Gagan

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

High pressure around 30.1 inches will sit over the Appalachian
Mountains and a trough of low pressure will remain over the Great
Plains into Saturday morning. A sprawling area of high pressure
over Ontario along with weak low pressure moving across Illinois
will gradually shift winds to a north-northeasterly direction
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Periodic chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend, though coverage looks low on Sunday. Patchy marine fog
will be possible as warm and humid air flows over the
relatively cooler lake. Shower and thunderstorm chances will end
Sunday night with quieter weather for the start of next week.

Gagan

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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