FXUS63 KMKX 280947 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 447 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind chills in the teens will linger for a few hours after dawn. - A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will lead to low minimum relative humidity this afternoon, particulary from Madison westward, leading to some burning concerns. - Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with a more active weather pattern into early next week. A few thunderstorms may occur Friday night into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Today through Friday: High pressure will spread into the region through today, leading to mostly clear skies. Winds will remain slightly elevated this morning and lead to wind chills in the teens, mainly before 10am. We'll then warm into the afternoon, reaching highs in the mid to upper 40s. While fuels aren't particularly dry, there are some fire weather concerns today as a model soundings show a well mixed dry boundary layer this afternoon amid continuing westerly winds around 15 to 20 mph. HREF guidance shows mean RH values dropping into the upper 20s west of Madison, with ensemble min RH values dropping even further into the upper teens. This may meet operational thresholds for prescribed burns today, so we'll have to monitor conditions throughout the afternoon. Lows will drop into mid 20s again tonight as skies remain clear and winds ease as the center of high pressure moves over the state. Clouds then increase Friday as a warm front sets up south of the state and warm advection increases over the region. Areas away from Lake Michigan will see highs in the 50s, while areas along the lakeshore will see temperatures dampened into the 40s by cool onshore flow. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 425 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Friday night through Wednesday: Precipitation is expected to blossom along the warm front parked over central to northern IL Friday night as a subtle shortwave imparts PVA over the region and enhances lift. The NBM paints likely PoPs (60 to 70%) from 00z to 06z Saturday for most of the area and then along the lakeshore from 06z to 12z Saturday. Thunder chances aren't looking great with the most recent model runs, as the 00z GFS has 100 to 300 J/kg sneaking into the southern half of our CWA around midnight. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out, but have mostly confined slight thunder chances (20%) to along the WI/IL border overnight Friday into Saturday. Rain should then quickly shift east and exit after 12z Saturday following the wave with subsidence in the wake of the wave then dampening rain chances for Saturday. Still looking like a warm front/stationary front boundary will remain in place over central to northern IL following an area of weak high pressure that'll pass quickly from west to east Saturday into Sunday morning. Multiple weak waves are then expected to propagate eastward along the baroclinic zone from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday giving on and off rain chances during this time. Rain chances should taper late Tuesday as a low pressure system moves along the front and kicks the front away from the upper Midwest. We'll generally be on the northern side of this swath of precipitation, so while we should see mostly rain Sunday into Monday, colder air could intrude Monday night into Tuesday, giving some areas of our CWA a rain snow mix. Ensemble probs of greater than or equal to 1 inch of precipitation still show model differences into the middle of next week, with the GEFS favoring a more northern track to the rain giving us better chances of getting in on more beneficial rain. The EPS still favors more southern track to the precipitation into next week giving the eastern Corn Belt the lions share of the moisture. With track differences still evident this morning between the GEFS and EPS, there are still some details that need to be worked out with the Sunday - Tuesday system (likely relating to where the front will park) so stay tuned as we begin to hone the forecast into the weekend. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 351 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions are expected through today and through tonight as skies should remain mostly clear to mostly sunny, save for a few passing clouds near KSBM and along the Wisconsin/Illinois border this morning. Winds will be westerly with breezes from 15 to 20 knots mainly from the late morning into the afternoon. Winds should then ease overnight and come around from westerly to northerly to easterly by Friday morning as a high pressure ridge passes over the state. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 335 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 High pressure will build into the upper Great Lakes Region today. While this high pressure will exert its influence over the region, a pair of troughs are expected to pass over the lake today. West to southwest gusts to 20 knots are expected to persist over the lake today with winds easing overnight as the high pressure center moves toward Lake Michigan. Light and variable winds will then persist over Lake Michigan into Friday, before winds turn southeasterly ahead of approaching low pressure Friday evening. Winds will then turn easterly and northerly with time as the low pressure passes south of the lake on Saturday. CMiller && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued 335 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 While FFMC will not be at criteria today, full sunshine and a relatively dry, well mixed boundary layer amid west breezes to 20 mph will allow for min RHs to drop into the upper 20s over most of the CWA. Preferred areas for lower drops to 20 to 25% will be in the Kettle Moraine and from Madison westward into the southern reaches of the Driftless Area and the Wisconsin River Valley. With min RHs projected to drop very low, there is at least some concern for prescribed burns meeting go/no-go thresholds and citizen burning today despite the fuels still having sufficient moisture. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee