NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 010009
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
609 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- West to east band of 2-4 inches of snow with narrow swath
  exceeding 4 inches setting up from Iowa/Sauk counties east
  through Ozaukee/northern Milwaukee counties. Lighter snow
  expect outside of the band. Winter Weather Advisory remains in
  effect through 8 PM in Dodge, Washington, Ozaukee, Jefferson,
  Waukesha, and Milwaukee Counties.

- Gradually warming trend through next week with periodic
  precipitation chances through the end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 600 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

850-700 mb frontogenesis & attendant banded snowfall is
contracting into the southeast corner of the area early this
evening. Majority of 0.5"+/hr snowfall rates are thus
concentrated in far southeastern Wisconsin approaching the 6 PM
hour, with rapid improvements noted in observations moving
northwest. Have thus allowed the western half of the Winter
Weather Advisory (two tiers of counties from Columbia-Dane west)
to expire as scheduled at 6 PM CST. Have maintained the eastern
half of the advisory (two tiers of counties from Dodge-Jefferson
east to Lake Michigan) given aforementioned rates & noted
impacts on roadways. Band is drifting toward the WI-IL
border/outside of the existing Advisory area, though decreasing
radar reflectivity trends & increasing forward speed of snow
should preclude the need for any southward expansions of
headlines. Budget extra travel time if taking to the roads in
southeast Wisconsin over the next 1-2 hours.

Snow should conclude for the majority of the region by late
evening as high pressure continues to settle in regionally.
Will, however, be monitoring for some light lake effect near
the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline through the predawn hours
Sunday. Lake surface - 850 mb temperature differences are on the
marginal side per RAP forecast soundings, though could be
sufficient for some pockets of light snow shower development as
northeast boundary layer winds persist. Don't currently
anticipate great organization in any lake effect snow showers,
which should keep hourly rates down. In the event that a few
lake effect snow showers make it ashore, some light additional
accumulation (~trace - 1 inch) would be possible. Will provide
updated thinking following the evening forecast update.

Quigley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight:

After models bouncing around, finally seeing the band of snow
showing its cards. Seeing the band develop from Sauk County down
through Kenosha early this afternoon. Expect this band to set more
west the east through the afternoon from Sauk/Iowa Counties through
northern Milwaukee/Ozaukee counties. Generally expect the 1-3 inch
accumulations to fall within this corridor. Given the forcing being
850-700mb frontogenesis banding along with reports upstream, could
not rule out seeing totals exceed 3 inches. Main concern with
this band will be the drops in visibility of less than 1 mile
along with quick accumulations of packable snow leaning toward
the drier side. Thus resulting in slick travel conditions,
especially for elevated and untreated surfaces. Given the band
fairly progressive movement along with trends of lower QPF as
drier Arctic air pushes in from the north, think that is enough
to keep totals in the 1-3 inch range and below winter weather
advisory level for our neck of the woods. However, still cannot
rule out a short-fused issuance, especially if the band sits
over an area longer than expected with totals nearing 4 inches.

Otherwise areas across our east central counties from Marquette
through Sheboygan may still see some light snow, but drier air for
the strong Arctic high to the north will limit accumulating snow too
far north. But still could see accumulations generally around an
inch for southern portions of the counties with less than an inch
the further north you go.

Areas south of the band (south of I-94) are bit more saturated and
will also see some snow accumulations, but generally around an inch
or so as the forcing remains to the north.

Expect the band of frontogenesis to wobble through southern WI
through the afternoon before departing in the evening as the
shortwave trough lifts east. However, looking to see northeasterly
flow set up off of Lake Michigan through the evening and tonight.
This looks be enough convergence to form a lake effect band of snow
given delta T's from Lake Michigan and temps aloft around 13C.
While this is borderline threshold for lake effect snow,
especially as the synoptic forcing shifts east, still is a
potential to see additional snowfall for southeastern WI
through tonight and picking up an additional inch or two,
depending on where/if the LES band sets up.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 215 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Sunday through Saturday:

High pressure builds in behind the snow for Sunday with drier and
quiet conditions. Looking at temps in the upper 40s to lower 30s.
Then southerly flow and milder temps return to southern WI for the
start of the week as high pressure slides into the eastern Great
Lakes.

The milder trend will continue through much of the week with near
normal through midweek and the potential for above normal temps
continues through the end of the week.

Accompanying this milder pattern will be a bit more activity with
periodic precip chances beginning Monday night into Tuesday.
Continue to see models and ensemble hint at a mid-level
disturbance traverse across the Midwest as low-level WAA builds
in from the south. Still some question on precip type with this
system being in between the departing colder airmass and ahead
of a warmer one. Thus expect snow to wintry overnight Monday
transition to more of a wintry to rain into Tuesday.

Additional mid-level troughs are expected to trek across the region
midweek through the end of the week, but continue to see timing and
track difference between ensembles/models. Nevertheless milder temps
and increase PoPs chances expected through the end of the week.
Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 605 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

MVFR/IFR flight categories continue in southeast Wisconsin
through mid-evening as a band of moderate snow shifts southeast.
Expect pockets of snowfall rates to 0.5"/hour in this snow band,
though duration of said rates will be brief. Snow will end by
late evening at all terminals. Will be monitoring for some lake
effect snow potential through the predawn hours, particularly in
the vicinity of southeast Wisconsin terminals. Confidence in
impacts remains low-moderate as of the 00Z forecast, so have
handled potential with PROB30 groups at ENW and MKE for the
time-being. Will monitor for possible TEMPO or prevailing groups
through tonight. Rates at or below 0.25"/hour are expected in
any lake effect development.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 215 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Low pressure continues to lift northeast this afternoon with
breezy northerly winds lingering across the lake through
tonight. Then a strong Arctic high pressure builds across the
Upper Midwest into Sunday and gradually works it way east across
the Upper Great Lakes through Monday. Expect lighter winds to
accompany this high pressure and eventually turn southerly
Monday into midweek. Expect winds to turn more east-southeast
through midweek as a low pressure system develops and lift in
from the Plains.

For the nearshore waters, waves may approach small craft conditions
at times later tonight into Sunday morning south of North Point
Lighthouse, and again Monday afternoon into Tuesday north of Port
Washington. Additional small craft conditions may develop at times
through the end of the week.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-WIZ065-
     WIZ066 until 8 PM Saturday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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