NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 181830
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1230 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Special Weather Statement is in effect today for elevated
  fire weather concerns.

- High temperatures remaining 10 to 20-plus degrees above normal
  through Thursday, then trending back toward normal by the
  weekend.

- Gusty winds from 35 to 45 mph are expected late this morning
  and through the afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect from
  9AM to 6PM for Lafayette, Iowa, and Green Counties.

- More precipitation expected Thursday afternoon into Friday,
  with rain gradually mixing with and switching over to light
  snow by Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1230 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

This afternoon through Friday:

Sunshine and dry air will continue to allow for deep mixing this
afternoon and also strong westerly winds. Gusts between 40 and
45 mph are expected this afternoon, with a few gusts over 45
mph possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for southwest
Wisconsin until 7 PM. Dewpoints will mix down to the teens in
southwest WI this afternoon, allowing for minimum RH values in
the teens as well. There are elevated fire weather concerns for
today, but fuels remain at thresholds below criteria for a Red
Flag Warning.

Winds will diminish this evening as a strong inversion sets in
as weak high pressure briefly moves in. Winds just above the
surface will remain strong out of the southwest into the
evening hours, but then drop off overnight. Low temperatures
will range from below freezing toward central WI to the mid 30s
in southeast WI. Pocket with lows in the 20s are likely in the
favorable low spots due to strong radiational cooling.

This high pressure over WI will be nestled between a weakening
low over northern WI and a developing low over the Plains. A
strong baroclinic zone/frontal boundary will set up over the
center of WI and become well-defined by Thursday morning. The
new surface low will track from northeast KS to west central IL
during the day Thursday, and into southern WI after midnight.
The low will take on a negative tilt over srn WI Fri morning and
occlude as it drifts northward into northern Lower Michigan
through the day.

Rain will spread into southern WI Thursday afternoon and evening as
the low approaches from IL. Strong low level warm air advection,
mid level vorticiy advection, and deep moisture support a brief
period of moderate rain with a few embedded, elevated
thunderstorms. Instability is weak, but overall dynamics are
strong enough for a few rumbles of thunder. As the low gets into
southern WI during the overnight hours, this will cut off the
WAA and deeper moisture. The colder air behind the low will
slide into southern WI from the west late Thu nt into Fri
morning on gusty west to northwest winds.

Accumulating snow is expected over south central WI but is much
less likely over southeast WI due to the later onset, lighter
precip amounts, and milder temperatures. While there is still
spread between models and ensemble members, there is general
agreement on an inch or two accum west of Madison. This will be
a wet snow, so blowing/drifting snow is not a large concern.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1230 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Friday night through Wednesday:

The extended models agree fairly well for much of the extended
forecast. An occluded low will continue to fill in the vicinity
of Lake Huron for Fri nt-Sat. Nwly winds and cold advection will
prevail over srn WI during this time along with some lingering
stratus clouds.

An upper trough will then slowly track from the ern Dakotas and
MN across WI, IA, and IL for Sat nt-Sun. This will enhance the
nly winds and cold advection, but also bring 20-40 percent
chances for lgt snow.

A north to south ridge of polar high pressure will then follow for
late Mon. The high will move east for Tue-Wed, as a shortwave
trough and cyclogenesis to some degree, will evolve from the nrn
Great Plains to the nrn Great Lakes. There are differences among
the models with the strength, timing, and location, but
confidence in the low tracking north with sly winds for Tue is
looking fairly good. This would boost temps above normal and
possibly back into the 40s after having near normal temps from
Sat-Mon. 40s could also occur on Wed if the cold frontal passage
is slower. There will be 20-30 percent chances for rain and snow
with this system with much better chances well to the north.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1230 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR will prevail through Thursday afternoon. Look for rain to
spread into southern WI from the south late Thu afternoon and
especially Thursday evening. A few embedded thunderstorms are
possible with the moderate rain. After a lull in the precip, colder
air will spread into southern WI from the west early Fri
morning and rain will change over to wet snow. Snowfall
accumulations of just over an inch are possible west of Madison,
with little to no accum near Lake Michigan.

Expect MVFR ceilings to develop in southeast WI by Thu evening
and expand across all of southern and central WI by Midnight.
IFR ceilings are expected overnight.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1230 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

High-end, easterly gales are expected through this afternoon over
the north half of the lake as low pressure of 29.1 inches
approaches Duluth today. A Gale Warning remains in effect until
3PM, but a few gales will be possible through sunset.

For the nearshore of southeast WI (and also northeast IL), gusty
westerly winds coming from the land will likely have gale force
gusts this afternoon. Thus, upgraded the Small Craft Advisory to
a Gale Warning for areas south of Milwaukee.

Winds will ease this evening into Thursday and become southerly
as that low occludes and weakens to 29.5 inches over northern
Wisconsin. Winds will increase Thursday night into Friday night
as another strong low pressure system around 29.2 inches tracks
from northeast Kansas into southern Wisconsin. That low will
cross northern Lake Michigan Friday morning and gradually weaken
through Saturday. Gusty northerly winds are expected Sunday
into Monday.

Cronce

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued 604 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Clearing skies today will lead to strong mixing. The combination
of mixing and high temperatures will result in relative
humidity values between 15-25%. Additionally, robust mixing
will enable strong winds to mix down to the surface, with gusts
between 35 to 45 mph expected. While FFMC is still below
critical (~85 at this time) owing recent snow melt and rain,
atmospheric conditions will support elevated fire weather
conditions. A Fire Weather SPS has been issued for the entire
CWA, except Fond du Lac and Sheboygan Counties where RH values
are expected to remain above 30%.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ062-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 6 PM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 until 4 PM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 6 PM Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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