NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 082204
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
404 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is expected tonight, with accumulations of a trace
  to half an inch most places and up to an inch towards Fond du
  Lac and Sheboygan. Patchy freezing drizzle is expected to
  develop after snow ends, continuing through the Tuesday
  morning commute before tapering off.

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Marquette and
  Columbia Counties eastward for expected snow of 2 to 5 inches
  and potential for a wintry mix to also develop and produce
  impacts to travel Tuesday night. South of this area, snow and
  wintry mix is also expected, but confidence in amounts is not
  as high. Advisories may be issued farther south as confidence
  increases.

- Additional rounds of light snowfall are then possible Thursday
  afternoon through Friday, as well as on Saturday.

- Below normal temperatures continue through next weekend, with
  wind chills as cold as -15 to -25 degrees Friday and Saturday
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 404 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tonight through Wednesday:

On and off flurries have continued throughout the afternoon, but
are finally showing some signs of progressing northeastward out
of the area. Late tonight, a frontogenesis-driven band of snow
will push through central Wisconsin, with more scattered snow
showers across southern Wisconsin. Generally expecting trace to
up to an inch of snow with this band, with the higher
accumulations toward Fond du Lac and Sheboygan Counties. After
the frontogenesis band moves eastward into Lake Michigan, lift
continues as low pressure makes its closest approach and the mid
levels (where the dendritic growth zone is located) dry out.
Therefore, expecting a period of freezing drizzle to develop
behind the snowfall. Expecting a trace of ice accretions across
most regions, as any drizzle is expected to be patchy and light.
Moisture in the low levels will exit west to east through the
morning commute timeframe.

Southwesterly winds will continue through Tuesday, with
temperatures beginning to rise during the afternoon and evening
hours as advection overtakes the diurnal temperatures. Still,
expecting temperatures to remain around 32 degrees throughout
the afternoon and evening as a strong clipper system approaches.

The main concern with this clipper system remains the
uncertainty in low placement on modeling. Ensembles generally
agree that the low would traverse central to northern Wisconsin,
bringing the heaviest snowfall across these regions. However,
mesoscale models and the operational models are showing a strong
southerly trend, bringing the low across southern Wisconsin and
therefore bringing the heaviest snow across the I-90/I-94
corridor. This heaviest band is expected to bring 3 to 5 inches
of snow, primarily during the Tuesday evening commute through
the overnight hours. Meanwhile, areas to the south of the low
track will see a mix of snow, rain and potentially some
freezing rain. Even if air temperatures rise above freezing,
ground temperatures are expected to remain below freezing,
leading to slick spots on untreated surfaces when rain falls on
them. A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and wintry mix has
been issued for Marquette and Columbia Counties eastward from 6
PM CST Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday. This is due to the highest
confidence in travel impacts from both snow and wintry mix.
Additional advisories may be issued farther south, including the
I-94/I-90 corridor, as impacts become more clear.

Low pressure pivots eastward into Wednesday morning, with a
quick transition back to all snow, and plenty of dry air working
in behind the system to create more of a snow shower set up than
a steady snowfall concern. Northwesterly winds will also become
gusty as the low occludes and a much colder Canadian airmass
approaches from the northern Plains. Gusts around 30 mph are
possible.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 404 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Wednesday night through Monday:

Brisk nwly sfc winds and any lingering snow showers will diminish
Wed evening followed by a quiet Thu. The extended models maintain
nwly flow aloft through the weekend with additional shortwave
troughs to pass through the Great Lakes. The upper waves will
become increasingly stronger, mainly bringing an impressive surge
of arctic air into srn WI for the weekend, but also 40 percent
chances for light snow centered around Fri. Wind chill temps of 15
below to 25 below zero are forecast for late Fri nt-Sat AM and
again late Sat nt-Sun AM. Upper ridging and a sfc ridge may
finally arrive on Sunday followed by another shortwave trough in
nwly flow aloft for Mon, including 20-30 percent chances for light
snow.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 404 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions will dominate southern Wisconsin this evening,
with MVFR cloud cover moving in tonight as precipitation
approaches. Expecting a band of snow showers with 800-1200 ft
ceilings to progress from west to east late tonight, with patchy
freezing drizzle developing thereafter. Expect a trace to a few
tenths of an inch of snow at most terminals, but up to an inch
is possible at SBM/FLD. Trace icing is possible within freezing
drizzle. Freezing drizzle will taper off from west to east
overnight.

Southerly winds through this evening will shift to southwesterly
tonight, then to westerly into Tuesday morning. Winds will shift
back to southwesterly Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next system
approaching. Expect snow across central Wisconsin Tuesday
evening, with rain/freezing rain developing across far southern
Wisconsin, and a wintry mix of snow and rain in between.
Although specific amounts of icing and snow are in question for
southern Wisconsin, confidence is high in at least an inch of
snow, and icing of a trace to a few hundreths on untreated
surfaces. Across central Wisconsin, expecting snowfall of 2 to 5
inches with trace icing.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 404 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Low pressure over northern North Dakota will deepen as it moves
across Lake Superior on Tuesday. As a result, southwest gales
are expected to develop for the north half of Lake MI tonight.
The winds will then gradually weaken through the day on Tuesday
as the low moves away.

A much stronger low will then track from Minnesota across
southern Lake MI and into lower MI Tuesday night. Southwest to
westerly gales may develop ahead of the low over the south half
of the lake Tuesday night, followed by the potential for
northerly gales on Wednesday after the low passes. A Gale Watch
is now in effect for the south half Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The brisk winds will then gradually diminish Wednesday night. A
period of northwesterly gales may then return Friday night into
Saturday as a strong arctic front moves through the Great Lakes
region. Heavy freezing spray may develop.

In nearshore regions, expect conditions hazardous to small craft
to develop tonight as southwesterly gusty winds develop. Winds
and waves will briefly diminish before picking back up Tuesday
night and continuing through Wednesday. A few gale force wind
gusts are possible during this time. Concerns for gusty winds
and elevated wave conditions return Friday into the weekend.

Gehring/MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060...6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM
     Tuesday to 6 PM Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868...10 PM Monday to 6 AM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM
     Monday to noon Tuesday.

&&

$$

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