NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 071931
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
131 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very mild temperatures in the 60s return for Sunday and Monday
  via southwesterly winds. A few areas may see temperatures in
  the low 70s on Monday.

- Rain expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. An isolated
  thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. As rain exits late Tuesday
  night into Wednesday, some wintry mix is possible into
  Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorms may develop Thursday afternoon and
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 131 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Patchy light drizzle will continue into this afternoon before
finally ending across the region, with low stratus continuing
through the evening. Expect west-northwesterly gusts between 25
and 35 mph to continue, gradually diminishing into this
evening. Late this evening, stratus will finally exit, allowing
for clearing skies and temperatures falling to freezing across
the majority of southern Wisconsin.

Winds will shift back to southwesterly into Sunday morning as
low pressure develops across southern Ontario, bringing in much
warmer air and highs in the low 60s. Some high clouds may move
in during the afternoon hours from the overrunning moisture from
this low. Even after this low exits into eastern Ontario, winds
will remain southwesterly Sunday night into Monday due to an
additional system following the same path. This will bring lows
Sunday night in the mid 40s and highs on Monday in the upper
60s to perhaps near 70 degrees in some places. A back door cold
front from this system will turn winds northeasterly overnight
Monday and bring lows in the low 40s to upper 30s.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 131 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

A low pressure trough over the central Plains will track into
Illinois by late Tuesday afternoon and into Indiana and southern
Michigan by Wednesday morning. The low will deepen over the
eastern Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and night. There continues
to be medium-sized differences between the GFS and ECMWF models
and affect the forecast amount of precipitation and also the
precipitation type.

The operational GFS may be trying to wrap too much Gulf moisture
into the strengthening low as it crosses the Great Lakes, and the
ECWMF may be trying to cut off the precip too early over southern
WI due to its more progressive nature. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles
have a lot of similarities on the track of the low (both surface
and 500mb) but favors a deeper low with the ECMWF when compared
to the GFS. There is a similar spread of the surface low position
between both ensembles. The temperature profile up to 850mb is
very similar between them as well.

Right now, the extended forecast maintains the NBM model blend and
this is appropriate for now. The surface front should line up
pretty close to the WI/IL border on Tuesday which means that the
chance for thunderstorms will be along and south of this line and
there will be uncertainty in its exact position until much closer
to the time. The NBM blend gives us a chance for snow (light
amounts due to warm temp profile) over central and portions of
south central WI early Wednesday within the wrap- around region
of the low. There is also a risk for freezing rain Wednesday
morning as surface temps are forecast to drop below freezing prior
to the upper level temps. We will continue to watch this scenario
closely.

A clipper system is forecast with fair model agreement to cross
the Upper great Lakes Thursday night into Friday morning. It is
looking like southern WI will remain on the warm side of this low,
but this can change. Either way, breezy southerly winds are
forecast for Thursday, we could see some thunderstorms develop in
the warm sector Thursday afternoon or night (depends on timing of
low arrival), and then brisk northwest winds are forecast for
Friday afternoon. Keep up with the forecast.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 131 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

700-1500 ft stratus and patchy drizzle will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon. Still expecting lingering IFR
ceilings to lift into the 1000-1500 ft category this afternoon,
before clearing into the overnight hours as high pressure builds
into Wisconsin. VFR conditions then dominate throughout the
remainder of the overnight hours and throughout Sunday.

Westerly wind gusts to 30 kt will continue through this
evening, shifting to northwesterly around 12 kt this evening
into tonight. LLWS will develop late tonight underneath a low
level jet as surface winds shift southwesterly. LLWS
diminishes into Sunday morning as southwesterly surface winds
increase again to gust around 25 kt throughout the day Sunday.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 131 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Low pressure around 29.4 inches will continue to exit into
Quebec, allowing for continued westerly gusts near 30 kt into
this evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for nearshore
regions of southern Wisconsin during this time frame. High
pressure around 30.1 inches over the central Plains will nudge
into southern Wisconsin tonight, allowing winds to diminish and
become southwesterly ahead of another quick-moving low pressure
system around 28.9 inches progressing east through Ontario
overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Winds will become gusty
late tonight, with a Gale Warning in effect for the northern
half of the lake late tonight through Sunday morning. As low
pressure exits to the east, winds will diminish but remain
southwesterly ahead of an additional low moving through southern
Canada Sunday night into Monday. An additional period of
southwesterly gales is possible late Sunday night into Monday
morning. High pressure then dominates the region and keeps winds
light and variable Monday afternoon through Monday night before
shifting to become northeasterly as low pressure develops in the
Plains Tuesday.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...4
     AM Sunday to 1 PM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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