NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 200253
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
853 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy drizzle & fog possible overnight.

- Slight chances (~10-20%) for light rain & drizzle on
  Thursday.

- Temperatures hovering near or just above normal this weekend
  into early next week. Quiet weather through this period.

- More active pattern with a cooling trend towards the middle of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 855 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Evening surface observations show high pressure pushing east of
the region, with the next area of low pressure positioned near
the South Dakota-Minnesota border. Evolution of the surface
pattern has resulted in a south to southeast wind shift away
from Lake Michigan, allowing modestly higher moisture to advect
into the region. Trapped beneath a layer of warmer air between
the 800 & 700 mb levels, low stratus clouds have thus overspread
southern Wisconsin. Patchy fog and drizzle has been reported
along and south of I-94/US-18, where the near-surface moisture
is slightly deeper. Anticipate that modest moisture advection
will continue through the overnight period as low pressure pulls
closer & warm advection increases in the 1000-850 mb layer. Have
thus added mentions of patchy fog and drizzle through daybreak,
with potential gradually creeping northward as the night
progresses. Don't currently anticipate widespread dense fog,
though trends will be monitored.

Quigley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Tonight through Thursday night:

As high pressure exits the Great Lakes region eastward Tonight
through Thursday, mostly dry and quiet weather is expected.
Winds remain light and variable into Tonight, followed by a
light southwest breeze developing Thursday. An arc of low
stratus cloud is gradually approaching from the southwest, and
should overspread the region this evening into Tonight, limiting
potential for fog and holding overnight low temperatures to the
mid to upper 30s across the region. A sprinkle (trace) of
drizzle this evening from said clouds cannot be completely ruled
out, particularly for south-central and southwestern WI.

Low clouds linger into Thursday, with the aforementioned
southwest breeze boosting high temps to the low 50s (around 6 to
10 degrees above seasonal norms). 10-20% precip chances are
included for the majority of the region on account of the low
stratus producing some drizzle, models allow for only a few
hundredths of an inch liquid precip (if anything at all) on
Thursday. Forecast soundings indicate the moisture / saturation
extends through only the lowest 5000 ft AGL of the atmosphere
(to the 850mb level at best), gradually drying out Thursday
night.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

Mild temperatures (at or slightly above seasonal norms) and
quiet / dry weather are expected late this week through early
next week. The subtropical and polar jet streams remain split
and mostly zonal through this period, preventing any major
ascent / active weather. Weak low pressure over the TX/OK
panhandles tracks northeastward towards Illinois late Friday
into Saturday, with a weak blocking high pressure near MN
stopping it's advance and allowing only ~10% rain chances to
arrive towards the WI/IL border on it's closest approach.

The pattern looks to become more active towards the middle of
next week, with the ECMWF and GFS both resolving healthy
troughing in the jet, tracking east into the Great Plains and
eventually lifting our way. Ensemble temperature plots also
indicate a cooling trend to begin mid next week.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 855 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Low clouds are overspreading southern Wisconsin this evening,
resulting in reduced flight categories at most terminals away
from the Lake Michigan shoreline. Clouds will persist through
the overnight period, with CIGs lowering further in the presence
of deepening low level moisture. Anticipate that prevailing IFR
will become established at most inland terminals through the
predawn hours. Confidence in prevailing IFR is lower near the
immediate Lake Michigan shoreline, where CIGs could ultimately
settle in lower MVFR categories. Have accounted for these
expectations in the 00Z & 03Z updates. Brief periods of BR and
-DZ are possible, with mentions being inserted as trends dictate
 through the overnight. Reduced flight categories will continue
 into Thursday morning, with gradual improvements expected by
 Thursday afternoon.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

High pressure of 30.3 inches continues eastward from the Great
Lakes region tonight into Thursday, allowing light south winds to
develop tonight, turning southwest and becoming breezy over
northern portions of the lake Thursday afternoon and evening (20
to 25 KT gusts). Low pressure around 29.5 inches tracking east
across Canada drags a weak cold front across the lake Thursday
evening, with winds veering west to northwest and decelerating
behind it. Light north to northwest winds continue into Friday,
becoming light and variable into early Saturday as weak high
pressure passes over the lake.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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