NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 270925
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief period of snow showers possible (20%) across south
  central and east central Wisconsin this morning. Slick spots
  and brief reductions in visibilities to 1 SM due to falling
  snow and blow/drifting are possible.

- Cold wind chills below zero will prevail through much of the
  week but remain above advisory criteria.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Today and Tonight:

Areas of snow showers and flurries are moving across west
central Wisconsin early this morning. These scattered snow
showers and flurries will move east south east into south
central and east central Wisconsin from now through roughly 6
AM this morning. These showers are primarily right along the
leading edge of a cold front that is moving across the state.
There is a narrow area along the front where temperatures are
quickly dropping and hitting the dewpoint temps which is causing
saturation to the sfc. Dewpoint depressions out ahead of the
front are not super large (3 to 8 degrees) so this isnt an
incredibly powerful push of CAA, but its enough to get the
moisture we need for snow. With the forcing of the LLJ and
frontogenesis along the front, this system is making the most
out of the limited moisture it has. As the front moves east
moisture slowly falls so its possible that these showers weaken,
but in the case that they don't. Areas where we are getting
30Dbz radar returns up stream have quick drops in visibilities,
breezy winds and very fine powdery snowfall. Thankfully these
pockets are very small, but worthy of caution if you find
yourself out on the road early this morning. For areas across
east central Wisconsin, these showers could briefly impact your
commute since it will be near 6 AM. Accumulations will be very
light and with the breezy winds will be hard to measure. Expect
any where from a dusting to maybe a couple tenths of an inch if
you find yourself lucky enough to be under a small pocket of
higher Dbz.

Behind the front, light flurries may linger into the early
afternoon as any left over moisture is squeezed out of the cloud
deck before clearing. There is only a 10% chance for these
flurries as it will be dependent on weak upper level lift. Not
really expecting any impacts or accumulations from this. Dry
weather is expected through the rest of the evening and through
Wednesday as high pressure moves into the Plains and western
Great Lakes Region. The cyclonic flow remains aloft so some
shortwaves around 500 mb and 850 mb will bring some clouds back
to the state late tonight into Wednesday, but again things will
be dry. Highs today and Wednesday will be in the upper single
digits to low teens. Overnight lows will be in around zero to -7
degrees.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Thursday through Monday:

The upper level cyclonic flow with troughs and shortwaves rotating
around southern Canada and the New England states will remain
through the work week. Despite the chances for some PVA aloft,
largely dry weather will persist through Saturday across southern
Wisconsin. There will be some low chance POPs (10-20% or less) that
occasionally move inland off lake Michigan Thursday through Saturday
as northwest to north winds set up across Lake Michigan. Not
anticipating any impactful lake effect snow (or really much of
anything), but these POPs are due to the few models that
occasionally have northeast winds and larger resolutions of the long
range models. So if your hoping for more snow, I wouldn't put to
much faith in these chances through Saturday.

Heading into Sunday and Monday, guidance suggest a shortwave trough
digging down from Ontario through the western Great Lakes Region.
There is quiet a bit of uncertainty here between timing,
location and strength of the shortwave. Cluster analysis
further supports this uncertainty with the two major EOFs have
a mono and dipole distribution. While are likely to be warmer in
the low to mid 20s, snow remains the primary precip type for
wherever this system tracks. Kept the average among model
guidance for POPs which is a low 20% or less.

Only other item worth mentioning for the extended will be the very
slow climb out of the single digits into the 20s for the weekend.
Highs in the teens and lows near or below zero will persist through
Friday. Saturday will bring our first chance for highs to reach the
20s and overnight lows to be above zero across southern Wisconsin.
Wind chills will remain below freezing through the work week over
night, but wind chills remain above and cold headline criteria.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period. The
chances for MVFR conditions will be early this morning with
incoming snow showers and flurries. Ceilings will be around 2 to
3 kft with the incoming showers. Visibilities will drop to 3-5
SM with a very small chance for IFR visibilites of 1-2 SM under
the heaviest showers. Drops of 1-2 SM should have a short
duration. These showers will move east south east through the
area with terminals along and north of Interstate 94 most likely
to be impacted. This includes MSN and MKE. These showers will
move through from now through roughly 6 AM. By late
morning/early afternoon snow showers and flurries will end and
dry weather will remain. Conditions will return to VFR as skies
slowly clear. Mid to high level clouds return at the end of the
TAF period.

Winds will shift from southwest to northwest as these showers
move through. Northwest wind gust of 30 to 35 kts will be
possible as the snow showers move through. Breezy northwest
winds remain through this afternoon. Winds will then weaken and
turn westerly by tonight.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Elevated waves and cold temperatures will support moderate to
heavy freezing spray through Tuesday afternoon. A Heavy Freezing
Spray Warning is in effect until 6 PM CST today. A small craft
advisory remains in effect for the near shore waters through 6
PM CST today for gusty northwest winds and building waves.

A 29.6 inch trough of low pressure is crossing Lake Superior this
morning heading toward Quebec. Winds are turning to northwesterly
this morning as a cold front passes over Lake Michigan. Southwest
to west winds are out ahead of the front for the southern half of
the lake. An occasional gale force gust will be possible through
4 AM for southern half.

Diminishing winds will trend west-northwesterly this afternoon and
night as 30.4 inch high pressure builds into the northern Great
Plains. Winds will gradually taper Wednesday through Thursday as
said area of high pressure moves into the upper Mississippi River
Valley. Strong high pressure around 30.9 inches will set up over
the Northern Plains on Friday and expand across the Upper Great
Lakes at 30.7 inches over the weekend.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
     until 6 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Tuesday.

&&

$$

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