NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 291948
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
248 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND
RAIN CHANCES FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...ALL PROGS PUSH LARGE BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING WEEKEND. PROGS THEN STRENGTHEN HIGH WHEN IT
ARRIVES OVER EAST COAST. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER
OVER CWA THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS HIGH
SETTLES OVER EAST COAST BY TUESDAY A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW RETURNS
TO CWA.

.LONG TERM...GFS/CANADIAN/NAM PROGS COMING ALONG TOWARD EARLIER
RUNS OF ECMWF PROGS WITH HANDLING OF REMNANTS OF GUSTOV IN LATER
PERIODS OF FORECAST. THE PROGGED 1000-850 MILLIBAR WINDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT FUNNEL A MOIST AIR FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE POOLING ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MINNESOTA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE
TIMING OF REMNANTS OF GUSTOV SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE PROJECTED TRACK WILL PLACE IT IN THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THURSDAY. AS EAST COAST RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HAVE TIMED PRECIPITATION FOR CWA WITH POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. DUE TO A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE FRONT/S POSITION HAVE KEPT AN EXTENDED MENTION OF CHANCY
PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPED AT KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET...LAKE BREEZE WILL DIMINISH AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMSN AND KENW NEAR SUNRISE
HOURS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IS IN PLACE...SO VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE
GREATLY RESTRICTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...17/ZAJDEL
AVIATION/MARINE...13/CRONCE