NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 230358
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1058 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect into late tonight for a
  High Swim Risk at beaches in Sheboygan, Ozaukee, Milwaukee,
  Racine, and Kenosha Counties.

- Expect a gradual warming trend through early next week.

- A few sprinkles are possible in the far west and far southeast
  tonight, but most places will remain dry. There is then a
  20-40% chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder later
  Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1058 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Tonight through Sunday:

Surface low pressure will approach the area from the southwest
tonight, passing by to the southeast on Saturday. Models have
continued to trend drier for southern Wisconsin with this
system, with maybe a little light rain or sprinkles brushing the
southeast later tonight into early Saturday. Clouds will hang
around yet another day on Saturday as the low moves through the
region and a shortwave approaches from the west. Trended the
forecast towards the cooler end of model guidance for highs Sat
given the clouds, though temps should still return to around
normal values for late May away from Lake Michigan. Onshore
winds will keep it a bit cooler near the lake.

Kept a chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder late this
afternoon into tonight as the shortwave slowly slides through
the area. Upstream showers/storms this evening along with higher
dewpoints over Iowa are boosting confidence a bit in the
shower/storm chances later tomorrow.

Skies are expected to clear west to east on Sunday, with above
normal temps likely under a good amount of sunshine in the
afternoon.

A high swim risk continues into late tonight for all southern
Wisconsin lakeshore counties. Life threatening waves and
currents are expected.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1058 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Monday through Friday:

Monday looks mainly dry under surface high pressure and as
upper level riding begins to build in from the west. There's a
small chance though that an area of showers/storms comes through
the top of the ridge on Monday, but confidence in this scenario
is decreasing. Above normal temps are expected for Memorial Day
along with somewhat higher dewpoints as well.

Warm temps and higher dewpoints will persist into mid-week,
with some instability suggesting the potential for more
shower/storm chances if a wave or two pushes through the area.
It then looks cooler and drier late week as surface high
pressure builds in from the north.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1058 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Sprinkles may clip the western forecast area early tonight,
with light rain possibly brushing southeast areas later tonight
into early Saturday. Most locations are expected to remain dry
though through Saturday morning.

Lower ceilings will likely push in from the southeast later
tonight into Saturday morning as low pressure approaches the
area. Lower ceilings are also expected by the afternoon as a
trough approaches from the west. Widespread MVFR ceilings are
likely tomorrow, with a period of IFR conditions possible in at
least the east. An area of showers may then move through west
to east late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night as the
trough swings through. A rumble or two of thunder is not out of
the question.

Easterly winds 10 to 15 knots will gradually wind down though
late evening, with light easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots
expected most places later tonight and Saturday. Winds will
likely be northeast once again tomorrow near Lake Michigan.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1058 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

High pressure around 30.5 inches centered over Quebec this evening
will slide southeast and become centered over the northeast United
States by early Saturday morning, while strengthening a bit to
30.6 inches. Meanwhile, low pressure of 29.9 inches will lift
from the Kentucky/Indiana border this evening to around the
western tip of Lake Eerie by early Saturday afternoon. Breezy east
to northeast winds this evening will become lighter out of the
north by mid-day tomorrow, then light and variable tomorrow
evening into tomorrow night. Southerly winds are then likely for
Sunday through Tuesday next week.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 am CDT tonight,
as waves gradually subside.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 4 AM Saturday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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