NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 191216
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
616 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures remaining 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
  today, then trending back toward seasonal norms by the
  weekend.

- Rain expected late this afternoon into tonight, with a gradual
  transition to snow late Thursday into Friday morning. Areas
  west of Madison will see moderate to heavy snowfall rates at
  times. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Sauk,
  Lafayette, and Iowa Counties.

- Occasional chances for flurries / light snow this weekend,
  especially Saturday night (10-40% chances).



&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 558 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The 00z and 06Z model suites have suggested that a band of
heavier snow is expected to park somewhere over southwest to
south-central Wisconsin tonight into Friday morning. However,
model agreement on exactly where leaves a lot to be desired.
Outside of positioning however, there has almost universally
been an uptick in QPF in addition to colder air being wrapped
into the west/northwest side of the WAA and fgen band that is
expected to move over southern WI. This translates to an earlier
transition to snow for western Wisconsin and higher snow
totals. In addition to snow totals, the magnitude of lift in
this area would support moderate to heavy snowfall rates from
0.5 to 1 in/hr between 12AM and 6AM, leading to some travel
concerns for the front end of the morning commute. A Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for Sauk, Lafayette, and Iowa
Counties where confidence is greatest in seeing advisory- level
impacts.

With the run to run shifts in the snow positioning, some
forecast refinements may occur through today and the Winter
Weather Advisory may be tweaked/expanded pending forecaster
confidence.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1220 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Today through Friday night:

Quiet and calm weather continue this morning and early
afternoon, with periods of clear skies and scattered high
clouds, increasing in coverage later today. Temperatures climb
to the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon (slightly cooler by
the Lake Michigan shoreline due to a light northeast breeze),
marking another day of above-normal temperatures.

A Colorado low tracks northeastward today, deepening to around
988mb and crossing southern / central Lake Michigan by Friday
morning. Rain showers are expected to arrive later this
afternoon into this evening, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be
ruled out. A transition from rain to snow progresses eastward
late tonight into early Friday morning, with dry weather likely
by late Friday morning. Due to the late arrival of the snow
transition, Lake MI counties are unlikely to observe any
measurable accumulation from the snow, though areas near and
west of Madison may easily observe trace to 2 inch accumulations,
with locally higher totals to 3+ inches possible in this same
area (if any briefly organized snow bands manage to form). This
will be a wet and slushy snowfall, perhaps more of a rain/snow
mix towards the shoreline. Shoreline air temperatures may remain
right at or 2 degrees above freezing (for the overnight low
temp), further limiting accumulation potential.

Gusty NW winds arrive as the snow exits late Friday morning,
gradually subsiding into Friday night.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1220 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Saturday through Wednesday:

A weak surface pressure trough is expected to linger in the wake of
Thursday's / Friday's departed low pressure, oriented from northern
WI to central lower MI. As this feature sags south later Saturday
into Sunday, it will interact with a passing upper trough to produce
some chances for light snow (esp Saturday night into Sunday
morning). A northwest breeze is expected Saturday through Monday as
arctic high pressure builds southward toward the Dakotas / MN,
leading to seasonal-normal cool weather in our region. Predominantly
dry and quiet weather looking likely early next week. Temperatures
begin a slight upward trend into Tuesday as southerly flow develops
ahead of the next system.

Models currently favor a clipper system developing over Montana
early Tuesday and tracking eastward across our region Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Both ECMWF and GFS develop a considerably deep low
pressure and track it eastward, but there remains some disagreement
as to whether it will pass overhead or north of our region. As such,
it could produce either rain and above normal temperatures, or light
snow and closer to normal temperatures. Either way, the system
should progress eastward fast enough to put a limit on QPF (GEFS
total QPF plumes are predominantly flat-lined thru Wednesday,
with better potential for precip Thursday and beyond).

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 611 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Expect VFR conditions today amid light and variable, to
northeast winds this afternoon. Ceilings will then decrease
tonight as moisture increases from the south. IFR conditions are
expected overnight as rain spreads over the area, with a
transition to wintry mix and snow west of Madison through most
of the night. A transition to all snow should occur inland
around dawn Friday morning.

West northwest winds around and after dawn on Friday are
expected to become gusty out of the northwest with gusts from 25
to 30 knots.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1220 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Gusty east winds continue overnight across the northern tip of
Lake Michigan as low pressure around 29.5 inches over northern
WI occludes and weakens. A light southwesterly breeze continues
over the rest of the lake. Light and variable winds this morning
turn northeast and accelerate this afternoon.

Winds will increase tonight into Friday night as another strong
low pressure system around 29.2 inches tracks from Iowa into
central Wisconsin. That low will cross central Lake Michigan
Friday morning and gradually weaken through Saturday. A few gale
force gusts are possible during the low's passage, with trends
being monitored for possible headlines in coming forecasts.
Gusty northerly winds are expected Sunday into Monday as arctic
high pressure builds southward into the Dakotas.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ067...8 PM Thursday
     to 6 AM Friday.

LM...Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Friday to 4 PM
     Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...midnight
     Friday to 9 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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