NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 140520
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms will continue into tonight. Damaging
  winds and an isolated tornado are the main threats. Locally
  heavy rainfall is also possible.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for counties north of I-94
  tonight. Also expected rises on area rivers and cresting above
  flooding stage with the additional rainfall.

- Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe
  thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and again later this week.
  All severe hazards will be possible later Tuesday afternoon
  into the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

A line of thunderstorms will roll through the forecast area over
the next few hours, as low pressure approaches along a stalled
frontal boundary. The main threat through 2-4 am will be
damaging winds, though an isolated tornado will be possible.
Given sustained instability overnight along with WSW 0-3 km
shear around 40 knots, any storm line segments that become more
north/south oriented could bow out increasing the wind threat
and also producing a QLCS tornado threat. The flooding concern
remains overnight as well, as the line of storms across the
northern forecast area slowly sags southward tonight, with some
back building currently evident over southeast MN and northeast
IA.

Storms may linger in the southeast forecast area towards around
daybreak, with dry weather then likely through the morning
hours. Attention then turns to another severe storm threat
during the afternoon and evening hours. The stalled frontal
boundary will be set up around the far northern forecast area in
the afternoon, as another weak surface low and shortwave
approach from the west. Plenty of instability is expected
across at least the south half of the forecast area, with
surface based CAPE of at least 3000 J/KG. Additionally, wind
profiles look more than sufficient for severe storms as a 45 kt
LLJ noses from the south by late afternoon. All severe hazards
will be possible as storms initialize between 3 and 6 pm, with a
decent chance for supercell development. Storms will likely
eventually organize into line or two, with the severe threat
leaning more towards wind and QLCS tornado at that point.
Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be a concern as well,
especially if storms roll through the same areas that received
the heavier rainfall the last couple days. Adding to this
concern as that some of the latest models do show that a line of
storms may set up west to east across the southern half of the
forecast area tomorrow night, with some training possible.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Wednesday through Sunday:

It is still looking like the frontal boundary could remain far
enough north on Wednesday for another severe storm threat. This
will somewhat depend on what happens Tuesday/Tuesday night and
where the effective front ends up because of that round of
storms. Overall though, there is enough confidence to continue
to message a severe threat, with locally heavy rainfall also a
concern again.

Storms may linger Wednesday night into early Thursday, with a
break in activity then likely Thu afternoon into at least Friday
morning. Yet another round of storms is then possible Friday
evening into Saturday morning as a cold front finally pushes
through the region. The later timing of this front may somewhat
diminish the severe threat, due to the better interaction with
peak daytime heating Friday remaining to the west. Plenty of
time though for timing to change, so this period remains worth
keeping an eye on.

Much cooler conditions are expected to settle into the area this
weekend behind the departing low and cold front. Highs will
likely struggle to get out of the 40s by Sunday. It looks mainly
dry Sat afternoon through Sunday, though not out of the question
for a few snowflakes in the north Sat night as a shortwave rolls
through.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A line of thunderstorms, potentially severe at times, is
expected to continue to drop southeast through southern
Wisconsin through around 09Z tonight. Damaging winds are the
main concern, with a tornado not out of the question. Low level
wind shear is likely this evening into tonight ahead of the
thunderstorms. Lower ceilings (1500 to 3000 ft) and visibilities
(2-5 miles) are anticipated as the line of storms move through.

A few storms may linger towards daybreak early Tue, with dry
weather likely through the morning hours. Low clouds may take a
good chunk of the morning to improve to VFR. Generally south to
southwest winds are expected tomorrow, though a few models do
show winds may turn onshore tomorrow near the lake by late
morning.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected tomorrow by late
afternoon or early evening, with the potential for severe
storms once again.


DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across lake
Michigan late into tonight as low pressure of 29.6 inches over
southeast Minnesota continues to head northeast. Winds will be
easterly north of a frontal boundary across roughly the northern
half of the lake, with southerly winds expected in the south.
Then expecting another a couple passing low pressure system to
develop in the Plains and track across Lake Michigan again on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Each system will bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week. Areas
of dense fog will likely occur at times due to a relatively mild
and humid airmass over the cold waters paired with lighter
winds.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060 until 7 AM Tuesday.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876 until 7 AM
     Tuesday.

&&

$$

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