NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 251619 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1019 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow continues into this afternoon in far
  southeast Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
  until 3 PM CST in Milwaukee, Racine & Kenosha Counties, where
  generally 2 to 4 inches of snow are expected mainly east of
  I-94.

- Bitterly cold wind chills between 20 and 25 below expected
  over all of southern Wisconsin tonight into Monday morning.
  Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect between 12 AM and 12 PM
  CST Monday.

- Overnight wind chills in the negative teens expected Monday
  night through Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1019 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The lake effect snow band persisted over most of Milwaukee
County and parts of Racine through 9 AM. Downtown Milwaukee to
the Shorewood area had 1 to 3 inches by then. It looked like it
was going to hold together into the afternoon based on radar
trends over the northern lake and forecast wind and reflectivity
fields on the meso models. However, the reflectivity has
diminished significantly over the past hour. Nevertheless, at
least light lake effect snow showers will persist into the mid
afternoon hours. Westerly winds should increase enough to push
it offshore of Kenosha and Racine counties by late afternoon.

Elsewhere, flurries are occurring across most of southern WI
this morning and this is due to cloud cover within the snow
growth zone (due to the cold temps).

I made adjustments to the pops along the lakeshore and also
snowfall totals, bumping them up to the 3 to 5 inch range in
eastern portions of the southeast WI counties, with locally
higher amounts possible right along the lakeshore.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 345 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Today through Monday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Lake effect snow has blossomed over the
western half of Lake Michigan early this morning. Activity began as
a series of mesovortices last evening, with regional radar mosaics &
the TMKE terminal doppler indicating that a transition to a single
northeast-southwest band is currently in-progress. Once it
consolidates, anticipate said band to continue to point into far
southeastern Wisconsin into this afternoon, with embedded periods of
moderate to locally heavy rates supporting appreciable snow
accumulation mainly east of I-94 in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha
Counties. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM CST
in these locations. Lake effect snow potential will wane during the
second half of the afternoon as high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains. Said high will migrate into the Upper Mississippi
Valley tonight, ushering a modestly colder air mass into southern
Wisconsin. Combined with breezy northwest winds, the arriving colder
air will allow wind chills to fall into the 20 to 25 below range
areawide tonight, with conditions lasting into Monday morning. A
Cold Weather Advisory has thus been issued between 12 AM and 12 PM
CST Monday over all of southern Wisconsin. Dress in layers & limit
exposed skin if needing to be outdoors late tonight through Monday
morning.

Rest of Overnight through Today: Lake effect snow will continue in
far southeast Wisconsin through the mid afternoon hours. Apparent in
visibility observations & radar presentation, rates have been
primarily light to occasionally moderate in initially-arriving
activity early this morning. Suspect that these lighter rates are at
least partially a result of the ongoing transition from a primarily
mesolow to banded mode in the lake effect snows, and that periods of
moderate to locally heavy rates will increase as the northeast-
southwest band becomes better organized through this morning. Once
fully formed, expect that boundary layer convergence will continue
to direct the lake effect band into far southeastern Wisconsin
through the first half of the afternoon hours. As such, forecast
snow accumulations generally in the 2-4 inch range remain on track,
with the bulk of accumulation expected to occur to the east of I-94
in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties. Could see a few locally
higher totals in the 5 to 6 inch range near the immediate Lake
Michigan shoreline, where residence time of embedded moderate to
heavy rates will be greatest. Still anticipate a northwest low level
wind shift by mid-afternoon, which will push lake effect snow out
over Lake Michigan. This puts the scheduled 3 PM CST end time for
the Winter Weather Advisory on track as of this forecast, though
trends will continue to be monitored through today. Budget extra
travel time if planning to be on the roads in far southeast
Wisconsin today.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 345 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Monday night through Saturday:

An upper level low will move from central Manitoba into the northern
Great Lakes Region late Monday night into Tuesday. Southwest winds
ahead of this low will bring temperatures up into the upper single
digits to even some low teens for a few locations Monday. As the sfc
low tracks across southern Ontario and Lake Superior, early Tuesday
a cold front will track across the state. Largely dry conditions are
expected with this frontal passage and weak cold air advection kicks
back in behind the front. Can't rule out a couple flurries making it
to the ground across central and eastern portions of the CWA, but
these flurries will be battling low level dry air the entire way.
Little to no accumulations are expected.

The pattern for sfc high pressure, northwest flow, and upper level
troughs/shortwaves will persist through the extended. The northwest
flow will keep temperatures in the teens during the day and around 0
overnight through Friday. The next chance for precipitation will
come Wednesday. Not really enthused about this chance either with
the average among guidance putting in 10-15% chance POPs. This
clipper system will take a very similar path to late Monday into
Tuesday system, but there will be a large area of high pressure out
ahead of it and a second high pressure system on its heels. This
will create a very narrow window for lift along the trough axis and
there will be a lot of dry air to overcome. The weak signals of
moisture return that were present yesterday have disappeared with
the last two runs which makes it unsurprising that POPs have gone
down (NBM can sometimes lag behind). If we do get some precipitation
it will be snow and will likely be flurries that struggle to make it
to the ground. Little to not accumulations expected.

Beyond this, not much to write about. Largely dry conditions with a
strong high pressure system parking over the central CONUS. With the
cold temperatures over the warm lake there could be more lake effect
shenanigans, but this should largely stay off the Wisconsin
shoreline the persistent northwest winds through Saturday. Long
range guidance tends to bleed a bit with the larger resolution so
could see 10-20% chances POPs sneak off the lake at times. One
positive in the extended, is there are increasing odds that we see
temperatures climb back to the realm of near normal (highs in the
20s) for the weekend.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1019 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

MVFR ceilings with bases around 2500 ft overspread all of
southern WI this morning. These clouds are within the snow
growth zone, so expect flurries to fall out of them through at
least early afternoon. There is more uncertainty this afternoon
due to an anticipated lifting of the cigs to VFR around 4000ft.

Lake effect snow showers will continue through mid afternoon
before northwest winds increase enough to push it offshore.
Rates should be 0.25 inch per hour with a few pockets of higher
rates up to 0.5 in/hr, based on the diminishing reflectivity
trends late this morning.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 345 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

1032 mb high pressure is entrenched across northern Wisconsin this
morning, with a band of lake effect snow ongoing over west-central
portions of the open waters. The two features are thus contributing
to east-northeast winds over eastern Lake Michigan with west-
northwest winds further west. The surface pressure drop affiliated
with the lake effect snow band will continue to sharpen through
today as a new area of 1042 mb high pressure builds into the
northern Great Plains, resulting in increasing wind gusts from late
morning into the afternoon hours. Gusts between 25-30 knots are
possible over the southern half of the waters, though they should
remain below gale thresholds. Snow will continue through this
afternoon.

Low pressure of 1000 mb will move from the Appalachian Mountains
into the northeastern United States tonight as 1040 mb high pressure
builds further into the central and southern Great Plains.
Progression of the two features will maintain breezy northwest winds
over the open waters, with additional periods of 25-30 knot gusts
possible into Monday morning across the southern half of the lake.
1032 mb high pressure will build into the Ohio River Valley Monday
afternoon and night as 1010 mb low pressure attempts to form over
Lake Superior, resulting in a west-southwest wind shift across Lake
Michigan. Winds will become gusty at times Monday night into Tuesday
morning, when a few gales are possible over the southern third of
the open waters. While any gales are not expected to be widespread
at this time, trends will continue to be monitored for potential
headlines in coming forecasts.

Winds will trend west-northwesterly Tuesday afternoon and night as
1030 mb high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. Winds
will gradually taper Wednesday through Thursday as said area of high
pressure moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Elevated
waves and cold temperatures will support moderate to heavy freezing
spray tonight through Tuesday afternoon, with a Heavy Freezing Spray
Warning remaining in effect between 6 PM CST this evening and 6 PM
CST Tuesday.

Increasing winds and waves will lead to Small Craft Advisory
conditions in nearshore zones later today. A Small Craft Advisory
goes into effect at 12 PM CST from Milwaukee and points south, and
at 6 PM CST in zones further north. The gusty winds and waves will
continue into Monday morning. A brief decrease in readings is
anticipated through Monday afternoon, with advisory-level wind gusts
returning Monday evening through Tuesday. Rather than covering the
prolonged period of advisory conditions with two separate headlines,
have elected to extend the Small Craft Advisories going into effect
later today through Tuesday afternoon in the overnight forecast.
Conditions will gradually improve Tuesday evening through mid-week
as high pressure builds in from the west.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 3 PM
     Sunday.

     Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
     WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
     WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
     WIZ072...midnight Monday to noon Monday.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...6 PM Sunday to 6 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...6 PM Sunday to 6 PM
     Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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