NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion
FXUS63 KMKX 290343 AAA
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
943 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Overnight minimum wind chills in the negative teens are
expected tonight and Thursday night. Slightly warmer wind
chills are possible Friday night.
- Lake effect showers develop just offshore in Lake Michigan
early Friday morning, and are likely to impact Lakeshore
Counties Friday morning into Friday afternoon (40 to 60
percent chances). Showers are expected to move back offshore
Friday night, and wobble back inland again Saturday morning to
Saturday afternoon. Confidence is high in snow spreading
inland, but low in duration. Around an inch is expected, with
a medium (40 to 70 percent chance) potential for 2 inches or
more in far southeastern Wisconsin.
- Next chances for snowfall (20 to 40 percent) Sunday afternoon
to Sunday night across all of southern Wisconsin.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 942 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Temperatures are slower to fall than anticipated, but once the
winds die down our temperatures should drop to the forecast
lows in the negative single digits. There is an area of lower
clouds with flurries over Green Bay that we are watching. These
are caused by lake effect over Lake Superior but are enhanced by
a shortwave trough dropping down. There is chance that those
clouds/flurries could make it down to Sheboygan, but there is a
lot of dry air to overcome so we will continue to keep an eye on
it for necessary forecast updates.
Cronce
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 341 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Tonight through Thursday night:
Temperatures will begin a gradual decline this evening, with
overnight lows in the single digits below zero expected.
Northwesterly winds will weaken, but remain steady overnight,
leading to wind chills in the negative teens. A few isolated
spots may get as low as negative 20 degree wind chills.
Winds remain lighter into Thursday, with highs in the positive
teens expected. Wind chills recover into the single digits
above zero in most areas due to the lower wind speeds.
Increasing cloud cover is expected Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night from overrunning moisture from Lake Superior.
Still expecting low temperatures in the negative single digits
inland, but lows in the single digits above zero near Lake
Michigan. A zone of convergence over Lake Michigan is still
expected to develop overnight as high pressure strengthens to
the northwest and winds weaken over Michigan, leading to
offshore flow and potential for meso-low development within a
parent lake effect band. Snow showers may begin to encroach into
lakeshore counties as early as late Thursday night as this
convergence zone evolves.
MH
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 341 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Friday through Wednesday:
Higher confidence in lake effect showers moving inland develops
early Friday morning through Friday afternoon as low pressure
develops in the Lower Mississippi Valley and adds to the
convergence/increases northeasterly flow at 850 mb. This will
allow for the convergence band over Lake Michigan to wobble its
way eastward Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Confidence
is high in snow impacting lakeshore counties, but duration and
therefore potential snowfall varies widely model to model. As
high pressure slides southward into the central and southern
Plains Friday evening, expect the band to wobble back offshore.
The low pressure to the south exits into the Atlantic and
deepens Saturday morning, leading to the 850 mb wind field to
steadily shift northeasterly and therefore bring the convergent
band back inland Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. With
both portions of synoptic forcing (high pressure in the southern
Plains and low pressure in the Atlantic) well to the south,
expecting this round of potential snowfall to primarily focus
toward far southeastern Wisconsin, but may still produce snow as
far north as Sheboygan. Again, duration of time onshore will
dictate how much snowfall falls in any one area. Confidence is
high in at least 1 inch across lakeshore counties over the
Friday and Saturday timeframe, with medium confidence (40 to 70
percent chances) for 2 inches or more in far southeastern
Wisconsin. Low pressure lifts into the northeast as it
intensifies, shifting winds back to northwesterly and therefore
pushing the band back offshore by Saturday evening.
Next chances for snowfall develop Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night as a clipper system rides along the northern edge
of the high over the southern Plains. This clipper will allow
southern Wisconsin to get back into the warm sector with highs
in the 20s Saturday and Sunday. Measurable snowfall is possible
with this system.
A brief return to high pressure with light winds and increasing
temperatures early next week, with highs nearing 30 degrees
Monday through Wednesday. An additional clipper system may
develop Wednesday as high pressure exits, bringing our next
chances for snowfall.
MH
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 942 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
There is an area of lower clouds with ceilings around 4500 ft
with flurries over Green Bay that could make it down to
Sheboygan, but there is a lot of dry air to overcome. Right now,
maintained FEW/SCT040 in the TAFs but kept out the mention of
flurries.
Cronce
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 341 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Modest to brisk west-northwest winds will prevail over Lake
Michigan at least into Thursday as weak low pressure remains
over the eastern Great Lakes and high pressure extends from the
northern Great Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley. High
pressure will strengthen into Friday as weak low pressure
progresses through the Middle Mississippi Valley, turning winds
briefly northerly to even northeasterly. During this time, a
snow band will develop in central portions of the lake, with
westerly winds to the west and northeasterly winds to the east.
Winds shift back to north- northwesterly and increase Friday
night as low pressure deepens in the Atlantic. Moderate to heavy
freezing spray will likely develop once again. A second brief
period of northeast winds is possible Saturday morning as high
pressure slides southward into the U.S. Southeast and low
pressure in the Atlantic deepens. Winds become light and
variable Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure finally
dominates the pattern.
MH
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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