NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 251737
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-30% chance for widely scattered showers and
  thunderstorms this afternoon, with highest chances north of a
  line from Lone Rock to Burlington.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected next week, possibly
  hitting Heat Advisory criteria at times Monday through
  Thursday.

- There will be a chance for storms Saturday night into Sunday
  and again later Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This afternoon through Saturday:

Showers have popped as expected early this afternoon, with
widely scattered showers and storms continuing into late
afternoon, winding down by early evening as instability wanes.
Given the progression of the better forcing and current
satellite presentation, the best chance for showers/storms will
be mainly north of a line from Lone Rock to Janesville. Severe
weather is not anticipated, though lightning and brief heavy
downpours will be possible.

At least scattered cloud cover will hang around this evening
into tonight given the lingering broad cyclonic flow and
approaching low pressure from the southwest. Winds will be
light, with low temps a few degrees below normal once again.

The upper level flow is expected to become zonal on Friday,
with upper level ridging beginning to build in from the west on
Saturday. Dry weather is expected both days under surface high
pressure, as the approaching surface low tomorrow should stay
far enough south to keep precip south of the WI/IL border. Temps
will remain a bit below normal Friday, especially given
increasing mid to high level clouds from the low passing by to
the south. Temps should warm back to around normal Saturday as
the upper ridge builds in.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

Upper level ridging will continue to strengthen across the
Midwest and Northeast United States early next week, with
increasing temperatures likely for southern Wisconsin. Dewpoints
will increase as well, with a chance for Heat Advisory
conditions Monday through Thursday, especially if it remains
dry during the daytime periods. While showers and storms may
clip the area Sat night into Sunday, the forecast looks dry for
much of Monday and Tuesday with the ridge overhead.
Shower/storm chances then return later Tuesday through Thursday
as the upper level ridge shifts a tad to the southeast.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Showers have popped as expected early this afternoon, with
widely scattered showers and storms continuing into late
afternoon, winding down by early evening. The best chance for
showers/storms will be mainly north of a line from Lone Rock to
Janesville. Severe weather is not anticipated, though lightning
and brief heavy downpours will be possible. Cloud bases
continue to gradually raise early this afternoon, with mainly
VFR conditions expected the remainder of the day.

At least scattered VFR cloud cover will hang around this
evening into tonight given the lingering broad cyclonic flow
and approaching low pressure from the southwest. Winds will
remain light through tonight, increasing a little from the east
on Friday.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Weak low pressure around 29.9 inches over northwest lower
Michigan early this afternoon will continue eastward today,
with relatively light and variable winds underneath it. High
pressure around 30.1 inches over Ontario and the western Great
Lakes will dominate Friday through Saturday with light north to
northeast winds likely. Sunday, low pressure deepens to 29.3
inches over the Central Plains, bringing breezy southeasterly
winds to the lake. Winds then turn southerly and strengthen
into Monday as low pressure exits into the Canadian Prairies.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee