NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion
FXUS63 KMKX 221045
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
445 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills are expected tonight
into the weekend. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect from
12 AM CST Friday until 1 PM CST Saturday for wind chills 37 to
42 below zero. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect from 1 PM
CST Friday until 12 PM CST Saturday for wind chills of 20
below to 30 below zero.
- Cold temperatures and wind chills will continue later this
weekend into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 445 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Today through Saturday:
Some low clouds will move southeast through the area at times
this morning, before more low clouds develop this afternoon.
West winds this morning will become gusty this afternoon, with
highs in the teens expected.
There should be yet another Arctic cold front that shifts
southeast through the area this afternoon, exiting to the south
this evening. Forecast soundings do show saturated low levels
with steep lapse rates in the dendrite snow growth zone developing
this afternoon. There is some low level frontogenesis response
with the front, though it does not look like there is low level
instability and a strong enough wind shift for robust
convective snow showers/squalls. However, may still see at
least a few snow showers and some flurries develop this
afternoon, and kept 20 percent chances going in the forecast.
Strong cold air advection tonight into Friday on gusty northwest
winds will bring the Arctic airmass into the region. Lows look
to be well into the teens below zero, with wind chills
bottoming out in the 37 to 42 below zero range early Friday
morning. Fairly confident in these values occurring, given the
brute force cold air advection.
Thus, the Extreme Cold Warning continues later tonight into
early Friday afternoon, as the wind chills remain below 30 below
zero during this period. Frostbite can occur in as little as 10
minutes when wind chills get to 40 below zero.
The Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon
into Saturday morning. There is still some question as to how
cold temperatures and wind chills will get during this period.
Highs Friday are currently forecast in the 3 below to 8 below
zero range, but may vary as the cold air advection ends and even
a little modification of the airmass occurs in the afternoon.
The forecast highs are just below the 50th percentile of model
guidance, and the spread is relatively small. So, small
variations in the highs may result, with wind chills in the 20
to 30 below zero range Friday afternoon still expected.
Lows and wind chills into Friday night and Saturday morning are
also somewhat in question, as the Arctic high moving into the
area weakens winds and sets up a low level inversion versus some
clouds moving into the region. This will affect how cold it gets
and subsequent wind chills. For now, have lows of 10 below to 18
below zero Friday night, with wind chills generally 20 below to
30 below zero.
The forecast highs are again just below the 50th percentile of
model guidance, and adjustments lower may be needed if the
clouds do not materialize as predicted. Thus, kept the Extreme
Cold Watch in place for now until more confidence is gained with
the lows and wind chills Friday night into Saturday morning.
Either way, bitter cold conditions are expected.
There is some potential for a lake effect snow band to push
westward toward the lakeshore Saturday, mainly in the afternoon,
as a convergent band sets up over the lake and possibly pushes
westward. Kept some 20 to 30 percent chances for snow showers in
the forecast for this possibility. Will wait and see how later
model runs handle this feature.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 445 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Saturday night through Wednesday:
Southern Wisconsin could get clipped by light snow Saturday
night into Sunday, as low pressure passes by well to the south.
Kept precip chances generally under 50 percent during this time
frame though, as there remains a fair amount of uncertainty
with how far north the snow will be as the surface low lifts
into the Ohio River Valley.
The better chance for snow during this time period might come
from a lake effect potential, due to the cold airmass in place
along with a period of winds backing from east to the north.
Models have started to show some run to run consistency with
this possibility, so may have to bump precip chance up in future
forecasts.
Otherwise, the story will be continued cold weather through the
weekend, with lows 5 below to 10 below zero Sat night and Sun
night, and highs only 10 to 15 on Sunday. Winds will be light
Sat night, but will be higher Sunday night, resulting in wind
chills possibly in the -15 to -25 range.
Dry weather is expected Monday under high pressure, with a
light snow potential Monday night as a shortwave moves through.
Tuesday and Wednesday then look dry under high pressure.
Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees milder for the
first half of the week, though likely remaining below normal.
DDV
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 445 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Some low ceilings around 3000 to 4000 feet AGL will move
southeast through the area at times this morning, possibly
lowering to 2000 to 2500 feet AGL at times. More low ceilings
around 2500 to 3500 feet AGL should develop this afternoon.
West winds this morning will become gusty this afternoon.
There should be yet another Arctic cold front that shifts
southeast through the area this afternoon, exiting to the south
this evening. At this time, at least a few snow showers and some
flurries may develop with the frontal passage this afternoon.
Brief visibility drops may occur with the snow showers.
Ceilings should gradually scatter out and dissipate tonight
into Friday, with gusty northwest winds bringing bitter cold air
into the area. The gusty northwest winds will weaken Friday
afternoon, as Arctic high pressure approaches from the
northwest.
Wood
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 445 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Low pressure around 29.6 inches will move into Quebec today,
with gusty west winds lingering over Lake Michigan. Gale force
gusts are expected over the southern two thirds of Lake Michigan
into the middle morning hours, where a Gale Warning is in
effect. A period of west to northwest gales are expected tonight
into middle morning on Friday over the southern two thirds of
the lake, and a Gale Warning is in effect for this period as
well.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters of
Lake Michigan through Friday, for gusty west to northwest
winds. Freezing spray is possible, mainly toward the open
waters.
Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish Friday afternoon
and night, as strong high pressure around 31.0 inches over the
Northern Plains expands into the Upper Midwest.
The gusty winds, Arctic air and elevated wave heights will
support periods of heavy freezing spray into Friday night. A
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect for this period across
all of Lake Michigan.
The high will expand across the Great Lakes over the weekend,
while weakening to around 30.5 inches. This should help winds
gradually weaken over Lake Michigan.
Wood
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Extreme Cold Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
WIZ072...midnight Friday to 1 PM Friday.
Extreme Cold Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 PM Friday
to noon Saturday.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
until 8 AM Thursday.
Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...6 PM Thursday to 9 AM Friday.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
until 3 AM Saturday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
Friday.
&&
$$
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