NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 171205
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
605 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures remaining 10 to 20-plus degrees above normal
  through Thursday

- Widespread round of rain (a 50 to 90 percent chance) expected
  Tuesday night. A few rumbles of thunder are possible.

- More precipitation expected Thursday afternoon into Friday,
  with rain gradually mixing with and switching over to light
  snow

- Temperatures trending back toward normal by the weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 557 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Expect well above normal but cooler temperatures today compared
to yesterday, as east winds off the lake will prevent another
run into the 60s for most of southern Wisconsin outside of the
far southwestern corner of the state. Some fog/haze may linger
through the morning over east central WI as a weak warm front
draped over the area will fail to reach portions of eastern Fond
du Lac and Sheboygan Counties.

Otherwise rain and a few rumbles of thunder are still on track
tonight.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The Remainder of Tonight through Tuesday night.

An area of mid-level clouds will continue to gradually lift
through the forecast area tonight, associated with a round of
warm air advection aloft. Radar has shown some brief returns,
but this will likely remain mainly virga given a lot of dry air
in the lower levels.

Mostly cloudy skies and easterly winds will result in cooler
conditions Tuesday, most notably near the lake under the
onshore winds. Temps will be milder in the southwest as the
warmer airmass begins to return ahead of approaching low
pressure. Widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder are
then expected Tuesday evening/night, as low pressure lifts
through the region just northwest of the forecast area. Easterly
winds Tuesday will gradually increase through the day, veering
southeast to south Tuesday evening/night.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

Precipitation should come to an end by around daybreak Wednesday
as the dry slot moves into the forecast area. Clouds should
clear out as well, allowing mild conditions and deep mixing.
Temps are expected to get up near the 60 degree mark, with the
strong low to the northwest and the good mixing resulting in
breezy southwest winds gusting to at least 35 mph.

Dry weather will continue into at least early Thursday between
low pressure systems. Another low is then expected to push
through the area Thursday evening into Friday, bringing more
precip chances to southern Wisconsin. Models still vary a bit
with the track of the low, which will ultimately impact the
timing of any precip transition from rain to snow. The overall
picture though is beginning to look more clear, with mainly rain
chances later Thursday into Thursday night, transitioning to
light snow by daybreak Friday. The exact track of the low will
determine if some of the potential snow accumulations sneak into
the northwest forecast area, with a blend of models suggesting
the northwest may just get clipped.

Mainly dry weather and colder conditons are then expected to
move in for the weekend into early next week as high pressure
builds in from the northwest. A weak shortwave or two may slide
through the area during this time frame, which could bring a
little light snow.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 600 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Expect moderate east to southeast winds through today as low
pressure approaches from the west. VFR clouds will ceilings
ranging from BKN060 to BKN250 are expected through today. Some
morning fog is expected over east central WI impacting KSBM.
This fog may linger post dawn and then transition to some SCT
MVFR to VFR cigs late morning before dissipating. Winds will
remain elevated into tonight and rain is expected overnight with
a few scattered rumbles of thunder. Southerly to southwesterly
wind shear to 40 knots may impact lakeshore terminals Wednesday
morning.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Light northerly winds this evening will gradually become easterly
overnight as high pressure of 30.1 inches moves in from the
northwest. East to southeast winds will then increase later
Tuesday into Tuesday night, as strong low pressure around 29.2
inches moves toward the region. Easterly gales are possible later
Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon over the northern third of
the lake, where a Gale Watch is in effect. The warmer airmass over
the chilly lake waters may limit the mixing down of higher gusts
elsewhere across the lake. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
from later Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.

After somewhat lighter winds later Wednesday into Thursday, winds
will likely increase Thursday night into Friday night, as another
strong low pressure system around 29.2 inches lifts northeast
through the region.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...midnight
     Wednesday to 4 PM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM
     Tuesday to 3 PM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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