NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 050357
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers & storms expected this evening into
  Wednesday afternoon. Heavy downpours will be the primary
  impact in activity.

- Heat & humidity return Saturday-Tuesday, along with periods of
  showers and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

Upper level divergence and WAA to our west in northern IA is
sustaining rain and thunderstorm development late this evening.
Both the upper level DIV and WAA are expected to slowly move
east with time. This will be a gradual process similar to the
motion of the sfc cold front that is draped across southern
Wisconsin. As these features pivot across southern Wisconsin
tonight into Wednesday morning, more widespread rain is expected
across the area. PWATs are fairly high across the region around
1.5 to 2 inches. This could lead heavy rain/downpours with any
shower. Any training or slow storm motion could result in some
urban and small stream impacts with flooding.

Heading into Wednesday afternoon, the aforementioned cold front
is expected to be around the WI/IL border which will work as a
focus point for additional scattered shower/storm development.
The chances for additional development for areas south of
Interstate 94 is around 30-50%. Areas along and north of
interstate 94 should stay fairly dry Wednesday afternoon and
beyond.

Heading into Wednesday night any lingering rain/storms are
expected to come to an end as the sfc front sags south of the
area and high pressure begins to return to the Great Lakes
Region.

The largest concern with any showers and storms by far will be
the heavy rain and risk for flooding should any training occur.
Small streams and urban areas are the most likely at risk for
flooding. This should leave any impacts fairly minor and
localized. There is a lack of shear in this environment and if
cloud cover persists from tonight into Wednesday afternoon
without any break, instability will also be lacking Wednesday.
Just not a great environment for any stronger to severe storms.
If any stronger storms do develop, gusty winds would become the
main concern. Any storms that becomes tall enough with the high
PWATs will likely be water loaded and could produce some
downburst winds. But with limited instability and shear the
chances are very low for any isolated storm to get tall enough
to do that. A low but non zero chance.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Thursday through Monday:

Behind the cold front, high pressure is expected to briefly build
into the Great Lakes Region bringing quiet weather for Thursday.
Light and variable winds, mostly clear skies and highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s Thursday. As the high pressure moves out of
the area heading into Friday, south to southwest winds will return
and so to will the WAA. Hot and humid conditions are expected to
return to the state with highs in the 80s and dewpoints expected
to climb back into the 60s. A weak cold front is expected to move
across the state which will bring a low chance (10-20%) for rain
and a storm or two for Friday night.

Heading into the weekend, zonal flow is expected to set up across
the northern US, including the Great Lakes Region. This puts
Wisconsin in a situation where multiple shortwave troughs could
move through the larger scale flow. This unsettle pattern is
fairly consistent across guidance, however when the shortwaves
move through and the strength of each varies. Rain and storms
chances will be persistent Saturday afternoon through early next
week. Monday looks to have the best chances for rain around
40-70% otherwise the rest of the precip chances are around
20-40%. As we get closer in time to this unsettled period, the
rain chances should become more defined in time, duration and
intensity. Not anticipating any all day rains at this point.
Uncertainty remains for any stronger to severe storms as well.
Some guidance wants to hit at stronger storms, but these same runs
are the ones that want to hit at potential heat indices in the
90s. Stuck to the average among guidance for the forecast given
all the uncertainties.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Predominately VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the
period. The VFR conditions currently are expected to deteriorate
overnight as rain moves in from the west. Ceilings are expected to
be around 3-5 kft with the rain. The scattered rain showers this
evening are expected to become more widespread tonight into
Wednesday morning. Visibilities are expected to be around 2-5 SM.
Heavy rain will be possible which could briefly drop
visibilities to around 1 SM, but confidence on this occuring is
low so kept it out of the TAFs. By Wednesday afternoon terminals
along and north of I-94 should have predominately dry weather.
Areas south of I-94, especially those along the WI/IL border
should expect rain chances to persist into Wednesday night.
Regardless of rain, ceilings are expected to remain around 2-6
kft until the clouds clear Wednesday night.

Light southwest to south winds are expected ahead of the slow
moving cold front with west to northwest winds behind the front.
There will be periods where the winds become light and variable
during the day Wednesday. Light and variable winds to calm winds
are expected Wednesday night.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A cold front is slowly moving across the waters this evening into
Wednesday morning, bringing a brief north-northwest wind shift.
Periods of showers and storms will accompany the slow-moving
front, with severe weather appearing unlikely at this time. Winds
will trend variable Wednesday evening through Thursday, when 30.1
inch high pressure is forecast to build into the western Great
Lakes.

A prolonged period of south-southwest winds will become established
across Lake Michigan Thursday night through Sunday as 30.1 inch
high pressure lingers off the Mid-Atlantic coast and 29.6 inch
low pressure stalls over the Hudson Bay. A slow-moving surface
front will linger across the western Great Lakes Saturday into the
beginning of next week, bringing multiple periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be stronger, with
additional details clarifying through the end of this week.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee