NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 161954
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
254 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow continues east of Madison but will taper off
  through the rest of the afternoon. A Blizzard Warning will
  remain in effect until 4 PM over the eastern half of the CWA
  and will likely be followed up by a Winter Weather Advisory
  into this evening.

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect over the western half
  of the CWA for lingering blowing snow and slick roads.

- Additional flurries and light snow showers may occur this
  evening and into tonight.

- A Storm Warning is in effect for the northern two thirds of
  Lake Michigan and will change to a Gale Warning at 7PM. A Gale
  Warning is in effect for the southern third through late
  tonight, and a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect early through
  Tuesday morning.

- Light accumulating snowfall will occur Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning. 1 to 2 inches of snow are expected across
  the area, with 2 inches more likely southwest of Madison.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 243 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Tonight through Wednesday:

Light snow continues over the eastern half of the area.
Visibilities have largely improved and the Blizzard Warning will
likely be let go in favor of a Winter Weather Advisory for
lingering blowing snow and slick spots. Winds are expected to
remain elevated over the area into this evening, and we will
likely run the Winter Weather Advisory over the eastern half of
the area until winds drop below 30mph, which will lessen the
blowing snow threat.

Over the western half of the area, snow has largely ended and
visibility has improved. The Winter Weather Advisory runs until
4PM there, and we don't forsee that being extended.

This evening into tonight, weak shortwave is expected to dive
southeast over the area. This, combined with steep lates in the
925 to 800mb layer, may cause some shallow snow showers capable
of flurries and light snow until the waves moves along around
midnight. Temperatures are expected to be chilly tonight as an
arctic air mass moves in. Lows will be around zero with wind
chills in the negative teens. Cold temperatures will continue
tomorrow as the center of the cold air mass and high pressure
moves overhead tomorrow.

As we head into Tuesday night a fast moving shortwave aloft and
850 to 700mb WAA and fgen will drive an area of snow that will
slide southeast over the area between 7PM Tuesday and 7AM
Wednesday. Euro and GFS ensemble probs show the best chances for
highest amounts being over the Mississippi Valley and southwest
of Madison, where the best lift will occur. Here, 2 inches of
snow are possible, while the rest of the area will be in line
for 1 inch. Temperatures then rise to near 40 on Wednesday
following the snow, as surface warm advection on southwest winds
pushes warmer air from a building ridge over the plains into the
Upper Midwest.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 227 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Wednesday night through Monday:

Another weak WAA wave looks possible Wednesday night into
Thursday. With the forcing being nebulous and the positioning
placing precip anywhere from northeast WI to central WI, the NBM
feathers in chance PoPs fo 15 to 30% over the region early
Thursday morning. Given temperatures profiles, if we receive any
precipitation, it'll fall as a light wintry mix or light
freezing rain.

Beyond, a ridge builds over the plains and high pressure keeps
us relatively dry as couple waves pass over northern Wisconsin
and the UP Friday and Saturday. Sunday, a more substantial
clipper system may pass over southern WI providing a round of
mixed precip, though this is wave is most substantial on the
ECMWF. While temperatures will gradually warm to the low to mid
50s heading into the weekend as a result of the ridge, this
late weekend storm system may knock temperatures back toward
normal for the start of next week.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 210 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Light to moderate snow continues east of KMSN as lingering snow
tapers off from west to east across southern WI. A mixture of
ceilings are also ongoing over southern WI ranging from LIFR to
VFR. Vis is also highly variable, ranging from 1 to 6SM over the
area.

As we head into tonight, northwest winds will remain elevated
causing continued BLSN but will begin to taper off with time
heading toward 06Z, and then ease to moderate through 12Z
Tuesday ending steady BLSN. Ceilings should rise to VFR tonight
and then scatter out with time. VFR conditions then linger into
tomorrow.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 210 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Low pressure will continue northwest crossing over Lake Huron
later this afternoon. Gales are currently ongoing over the much of
the lake with storm force gusts less certain at this point. We
will maintain the Storm Warning at this time for some areas seeing
close to storm force gusts. We will end the Storm Warning a bit
earlier (0z) to account for the lack of significant wind gusts at
this time. Snow has slowed over the lake with mostly light snow at
this point but some drops in visibilities may still be expected
at times

Colder temperatures today will bringing heavy freezing spray to
the entire lake, continuing into Tuesday given the frigid
temperatures a breezy winds expected overnight. Low pressure will
gradually exit into Ontario later this afternoon. Gales and heavy
freezing spray are expected to continue through much of tonight
and perhaps lingering into Tuesday morning, particularly with
freezing spray. Nearshore gales will likely end by the mid to late
evening as higher winds with the pressure gradient shift east.
Winds will slowly diminish through Tuesday, shifting to southerly
ahead of another system Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Winds shift to southwesterly as the system progresses through
Ontario Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then to
northwesterly on Thursday as a cold front progresses southeastward
through the region.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Blizzard Warning...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-
     WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 PM Monday.

     Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-
     WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069 until 4 PM Monday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Tuesday.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-
     LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
     LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 11 AM Tuesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...7 PM Monday
     to 7 AM Tuesday.

     Storm Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until 7 PM
     Monday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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