NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 230604
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1204 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers and flurries will dissipate over the next
  few hours.

- Light snow (30 to 60-plus percent), generally less than an
  inch, is forecast across northern portions of the area later
  Tuesday afternoon and early evening. This may affect the
  evening commute.

- Snow chances Wednesday night into Thursday morning are more
  uncertain, with the track of the low trending further to the
  south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1204 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Overnight through Tuesday night:

Pesky light snow showers and flurries shifting southward through
the area should gradually dissipate over the next few hours, as
radar and satellite trends are finally showing some drier air
working southward. Little to no snow additional snow accumulations
are expected.

Gusty north northwest winds will linger overnight into Monday,
as low clouds gradually scatter out by sunrise. High pressure
moving into the area on Monday will gradually weaken winds by
later in the day. Middle to high clouds will move into the area
Monday night, as winds shift to the south and warm air advection
begins.

It will be a chilly period into Monday, with lows in the single
digits above zero to teens overnight and wind chills around
zero. Highs should reach the middle 20s Monday, with middle
teens Monday night.

Warm air advection will continue Tuesday on increasing south to
southwest winds. A tight pressure gradient develops over the
region, with low pressure moving east toward and into Lake
Superior. This should bring milder highs in the middle to upper
30s.

West northwest flow at 500 mb should persist into Tuesday, as a
clipper system should pushes through the area later Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with a fairly well-organized 500 mb
shortwave trough. A surface low should shift southeast through
the region, tracking well to the north of the area. Some focused
warm air advection Tuesday afternoon, along with the
differential CVA with the shortwave trough passage and some low
to mid-level frontogenesis response, should combine to bring
chances (30 to 60-plus percent) of light snow to the area.

The best chances would be in northern and northeastern portions
of the area, where ensemble members have the most members with
measurable QPF. Light snow accumulations continue to look
possible, mainly under an inch, toward northern portions of the
area. This may have some impacts to the Tuesday evening commute.
Will continue to message this potential.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1204 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Wednesday through Sunday:

There should be a brief break after the clipper system moves
out of the area later Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday
evening as high pressure moves through the region. Then, a low
pressure system should shift to the south of the region later
Wednesday night into Thursday, with the associated 500 mb
shortwave trough. The track of this system may still clip the
area on its northern extent. However, there has been a trend
toward fewer members with some ensembles showing measurable QPF
in southern portions of the area. This indicates a southward
shift in the low track, which will be something to watch.

There may be an area of mid-level frontogenesis response from
this system to bring banded precipitation during this time,
though it may remain to the south of the area. It would be close
enough to watch for its potential as this period draws closer.
For now, continued to mention 30 to 50-plus percent chances for
snow for Wednesday night into Thursday.

Ensembles continue to suggest a good warmup for Friday, as
south to southwest winds bring strong warm air advection into
the area. Highs should climb well above normal for Friday.

A strong cold front then may shift southeast through the area
Friday night, with robust cold air advection into next weekend
on north to northeast winds. This should bring a return to more
seasonable temperatures.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1204 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Pesky light snow showers and flurries shifting southward
through the area should gradually dissipate over the next few
hours, as radar and satellite trends are finally showing some
drier air working southward. Little to no snow additional snow
accumulations are expected.

Gusty north northwest winds will linger overnight into Monday,
as low ceilings in the 2500 to 3500 foot AGL range gradually
scatter out by sunrise. High pressure moving into the area on
Monday will gradually weaken winds by later in the day. Middle
to high clouds will move into the area Monday night, as winds
shift to the south.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1204 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Strong north northwest winds will continue overnight into
Monday morning, as strong low pressure strengthens to around
28.9 inches off the Mid- Atlantic coast, and strong high
pressure moving into Ontario strengthens to around 31.0 inches.

Gales are expected across the southern two-thirds of the open
waters of Lake Michigan, and a Gale Warning remains in effect
into midday Monday. With the brisk conditions, moderate freezing
spray is expected, with brief periods of heavy freezing spray
possible in the central to northern third of the lake. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan through early Monday evening for the gusty winds and
elevated waves toward the open waters.

Weakening high pressure around 30.5 inches will continue to
push eastward through the day Monday, with winds gradually
easing later Monday into Monday night. Increasing south to
southwest winds are expected to develop across the lake
Tuesday, as low pressure deepening to around 29.3 inches shifts
from the Dakotas to across Lake Superior and northern Lake
Michigan Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Winds will shift more west northwest behind the low and
associated cold front by later Tuesday night. Some gale force
gusts are possible Tuesday and later Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Some freezing spray may occur as well. Winds
and waves are likely to reach Small Craft Advisory levels
Tuesday into Wednesday for the nearshore waters.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878 until noon Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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