NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 272021
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
321 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms ending late this afternoon over
  far se WI.

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect for south central Wisconsin
  into early evening.

- High swim risk conditions are expected to develop early
  Tuesday morning and continue into Wednesday morning along all
  Lake Michigan beaches due to high waves and currents expected.
  A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for all Lake Michigan
  counties.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 156 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Much of the strong to severe convection will exit se WI late
this afternoon. Otherwise, low pressure around 1000 mb over
central WI will track sewd to the Lower Great Lakes by 09-12Z
Tue. Its cold front will pass late this afternoon and evening
but with only slight chances for showers and storms due to the
lack of upper dynamics and warm air aloft. The low and its
upper wave will then slow and occlude over the Mid Atlantic
States to New England through Thursday. Nly winds will cool high
temps to lower to middle 80s for Tue including much lower
relative humidity. A ridge of high pressure will then prevail
Tue nt-Thu AM with pleasant summer wx and high temps rising each
day in the 90s.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 156 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Thursday night through Monday:

Nwly flow aloft will prevail during this period with embedded
shortwave troughs. Shower and storm chances will rise to 50-60
percent for Fri-Sat. High temps in the 80s are expected each
day.


Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 156 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas of MVFR Cigs lingering late this afternoon over se WI in
the wake of thunderstorms. Another period of MVFR Cigs will be
possible late tnt over ern WI. VFR conditions will then return
after 12Z Tue and continue through the day.


Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 156 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Severe storms will end later this afternoon over far southern Lake
Michigan. Otherwise low pressure around 29.5 inches over central
Wisconsin will move to the lower Great Lakes for Tuesday morning.
Its cold front will move north to south across Lake Michigan
during the evening. Northerly winds are expected to gust around
30 kt over central and southern Lake Michigan tonight through
Tuesday. Much lighter northerly winds are then expected late
Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure around 30.0 inches
builds into the northern Great Lakes. The high will maintain light
winds for Thursday and Friday as well.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect late tnt through Tue nt from
Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor for gusty nly winds and high waves.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-
     WIZ072...midnight Tuesday to 10 AM Wednesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM
     Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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