NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 071223
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
623 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Falling temperatures into the 40s today due to the passage of
  a strong cold front.

- Very mild temperatures return for Sunday and Monday via
  southwesterly winds.

- Rain expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. An isolated
  thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. As rain exits late Tuesday
  night into Wednesday, some wintry mix is possible.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 623 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The showers have mostly ended while the cold front is now over
sw WI. Areas of drizzle, mist, and fog are within the frontal
zone in the La Crosse area which may translate ewd with the
front. The strong cold advection later this morning and
afternoon will drop temps from the 50s and lower 60s into the
40s today. A weak sfc ridge will follow this evening but breezy
swly winds and warm advection will bring a return of very mild
temps for Sun- Mon.


Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1051 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Tonight through Sunday:

Showers and storms are approaching from the southwest late this
evening and are expected to move through southern Wisconsin into
the middle of the night. There is more elevated instability in
place than with the round of storms earlier today. Additionally,
bulk wind shear is fairly strong to go along with steep mid-
level lapse rates. Confidence is high in thunderstorms over the
next few hours, with remaining uncertainty with the strength of
the storms. Despite the instability and solid lapse rates,
storms upstream are struggling to get very tall this evening,
which is currently limiting the hail threat. Additionally, the
limited surface instability will play a role in limiting tornado
and wind potential with the upcoming storms. That said, this is
a fairly dynamic system with strong winds aloft, so the
potential remains for the storms to tap some of these higher
winds. Not out of the question to see a brief spin up too if the
storms can get more organized and introduce a QLCS tornado
threat.

Widespread showers and storms should clear the forecast area to
the east by around 3-4 am tonight, with lingering showers
possible the rest of the night into Saturday morning as the
trailing cold front moves through. Temps will remain mild
overnight into early Sat morning ahead of the cold front, with
breezy winds and falling temps then expected the remainder of
the day tomorrow behind the front.

A surface ridge will quickly slide through the area Saturday
night, with southerly winds developing overnight into Sunday
behind the high and ahead of an approaching low well to the
northwest. Breezy southwest winds on Sunday will combine with
plenty of sunshine for a quick recovery of well above normal
temps. Highs will likely approach or hit the 60 degree mark most
places.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1051 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Monday through Friday:

Even milder conditions are likely Monday as the southwest low
level flow continues in combination with another mostly sunny
day. Highs in the mid to upper 60s are expected across the
forecast area.

A cold front is expected to drop through the area later Monday
into Monday night, with cooler conditions likely on Tuesday. Low
pressure riding along the baroclinic zone is currently expected
to move through the region just south of the WI/IL border later
Tuesday through Tuesday night, bringing rain chances back to the
forecast area. Not out of the question to see a little snow on
Wednesday as the low winds up east of the area and colder air
wraps in behind the low.

It will likely remain cooler on Thursday as high pressure
briefly moves through, with latest models suggesting low
pressure will bring precip chances to southern Wisconsin
Thursday night into Friday. Plenty of uncertainty remains with
this system, particularly with the timing/placement/strength
and resultant precip type/amounts.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 623 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Cigs of 500-1500 feet will overspread S WI this morning during
the passage of a strong cold front. Areas of light drizzle,
mist, and fog will accompany the frontal passage. Cigs will then
rise to MVFR Cigs for the afternoon with clearing skies from
west to east from late afternoon into the early evening. VFR
conditions to then prevail the remainder of the night into
Sunday, but LLWS will likely develop late tnt via a wly low
level jet at 50 kt.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1051 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Low pressure around 29.6 inches centered over Iowa will track
northeastward across Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan through the overnight hours, deepening to 29.5 inches.
Southwesterly winds will prevail ahead of this low through the
overnight hours, with one last round of showers and
thunderstorms crossing the lake after midnight. Light to modest
winds and milder temps will also create conditions favorable for
marine fog to develop at times this evening into Saturday
morning. Thus a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for
periodic drops in visibilities to less than 1 nm at times. The
low will drag a cold front across the Upper Great Lakes into
Saturday morning. Will see breezy west to northwesterly winds
behind the front and usher out the marine fog by late Saturday
morning. Westerly winds will prevail through Saturday night
before increasing and turning more southwesterly for Sunday into
Monday as a series of two low pressure systems develop and
track north of Lake Michigan through this time frame. Cannot
rule out a brief potential for Gales Sunday and Monday for the
northern third of the open waters of Lake Michigan.

The current Small Craft Advisory for tonight into Saturday
morning may eventually need to be extended into Saturday
afternoon, as breezy westerly winds may linger. Another advisory
is likely on Sunday due to southwest winds gusting 25 to 30
knots.

Sheppard/DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until noon
     Saturday.

     Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 9 AM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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