NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

 

						FXUS63 KMKX 240726
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
226 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

After a mild start, temperatures should quickly warm into the 70s
this morning, with afternoon highs topping out in the mid 80s (mid
to upper 70s along the lake) with plenty of sun. Winds will be
from the south.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s, with some
high cloud cover moving in from the west.

.LONG TERM...
Friday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the in the afternoon and evening. Southwest winds will be a
little gusty with good mixing to 850mb where winds are 25 knots.
With the persistent low level southwest flow, warm and humid air
will continue to push into the region. Consensus is highs in the
mid 80s through Sunday with dew points in the middle 60s.

There will be plenty of instability Friday but deep shear and
upper jet dynamics are lacking. The SPC outlook of Marginal for
severe storms looks good. 0 to 6 km Shear is 20 knots and Cape
looks to be surface based during the afternoon during the
time when a shortwave will drop dropping through. Cape becomes
more elevated in the evening so thunder threat will linger.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

A general northwest flow pattern aloft with weak shortwaves dropping
through will bring small precip and thunderstorm chances on
Saturday. No all day rain is expected. Latest model runs are
trending drier for Sunday but a brief shower or thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Overall, flow is weak and warm and humid
conditions will continue.

Memorial Day through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Highs pressure moves through bringing quiet weather on Memorial
Day. This will cause winds to become more easterly, but still light.
Temperatures may start to cool Monday near Lake Michigan with the
onset of the easterly flow.

Slightly cooler, but still warm, temperatures are expected
starting Tuesday with dry weather likely Memorial Day and
Tuesday. Precipitation chances increase later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected for the next
24 hours, with no significant weather hazards expected. Winds will
be from the south, with a few gusts up to around 12-15 knots this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

No significant hazards are expected today and tonight across the
nearshore waters. Fog will remain possible across the open waters,
where water temperatures are cooler. Southerly winds are expected
today and tonight, with waves generally 1-2 feet or less.

Somewhat stronger south winds are expected on Friday, and waves
may approach 3 feet, especially closer to Sheboygan. Thunderstorms
will be possible Friday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Friday through Wednesday...Marquardt