NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 211937
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
137 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is expected on and off tonight into Sunday morning,
  with generally a trace to a couple tenths of accumulations
  possible in southeastern Wisconsin.

- Northwesterly gusty winds develop Sunday afternoon into Monday
  morning, with gales possible over Lake Michigan.

- A wintry mix of snow and rain possible Tuesday and Tuesday
  night (30 to 60 percent chance). Accumulating snow possible
  Wednesday night into Thursday (~30 percent chance).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 137 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Tonight through Sunday night:

Flurries are expected to spread through southern Wisconsin
this afternoon as consistent northwesterly winds create just
enough turbulence in the low stratus to drive light
precipitation. Into late tonight, a 500 mb shortwave diving
southward through Wisconsin will serve to create just enough
lift and moisture convergence to produce scattered light snow
showers across southeastern to south-central Wisconsin (~30
percent chance in any given location). Not anticipating more
than a couple tenths of an inch of accumulation due to the weak
lift and lack of frontogenesis keeping snow showery and light.

An additional wave of moisture sweeps southward through the same
areas into Sunday morning, with an additional trace of snow
possible within additional showers. A few flurries may linger
into Sunday afternoon before tapering off completely as low
pressure exits from Lake Huron.

Winds increase into Sunday afternoon, with gusts near 30 mph
expected. Skies will finally begin breaking up into Sunday
evening as high pressure builds from the northern Plains. With
incoming high pressure comes an additional wave of cold air,
with lows Sunday night in the low teens to upper single digits.
Wind chills in the single digits below zero are possible as
winds remain elevated overnight.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 137 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Monday through Saturday:

Winds will gradually diminish through Monday afternoon, with
Canadian high pressure leading to clearing skies and highs in
the mid-20s. Light and variable winds are expected overnight
Monday with clear skies allowing for temperatures to cool back
into the mid-teens. High pressure will continue its propagation
eastward as low pressure propagates across the southern Canadian
Prairies into northern Minnesota into Tuesday, allowing for
winds to shift southerly and bringing temperatures back into the
mid to upper 30s. Low pressure will make its closest approach
Tuesday afternoon, bringing the next chances (30 to 60 percent)
for a rain and snow mix. The cold front from the system will
bring a return to temperatures in the 20s Tuesday night, and
highs near freezing Wednesday. Wednesday evening, a low ejecting
from the Colorado Rockies may sneak far enough north to produce
snowfall across southern Wisconsin (30 to 40 percent chances).

After low pressure exits to the northeast Thursday morning, dry
conditions with light surface WAA and increasing sunshine will
allow for climbing temperatures Thursday into Friday. May see a
return to the upper 40s by Friday as low pressure develops in
the Canadian Prairies and brings strong surface WAA through
southern Wisconsin. As this system passes to the north, a few
rain and snow showers are possible once again (~20 percent).

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 137 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

MVFR ceilings will likely persist through the remainder of
tonight, with a few flurries possible on and off through this
afternoon. A patch of clearing is visible on satellite in
southwestern Wisconsin, but it is struggling to work its way
eastward. MSN/JVL may briefly see VFR conditions this afternoon,
but will return to MVFR by sunset. Late tonight into Sunday
morning, a few waves of light snow are possible across
southeastern Wisconsin, with minimal accumulations expected (up
to a few tenths of an inch in areas that see multiple snow
showers develop). Snow will taper off by Sunday afternoon, but
MVFR cloud cover remains. Clouds will gradually scatter out
overnight Sunday.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 137 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Northwesterly winds will continue throughout this afternoon and
tonight, with gusty conditions developing after midnight CST
tonight as low pressure deepens off the mid-Atlantic coast and
strong Canadian high pressure builds. Gusts are expected to be
hazardous to Small Craft. As high pressure builds eastward into
Ontario Sunday night, expect gales to develop across the
southern two-thirds of the open waters. A Gale Watch is in
effect Sunday night into Monday midday. Winds will gradually
diminish into Monday as low pressure lifts into the Canadian
Maritimes and high pressure builds over the western Great Lakes
region. A modest south breeze develops Tuesday as high pressure
continues eastward and weak low pressure progresses eastward
through the northern Great Lakes. A cold front from this low
will turn winds northwesterly again Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM
     Sunday to 3 PM Monday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...7 PM Sunday to noon Monday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee