NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 222310
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some chances (around 10-20 percent) for light rain to occur
  this afternoon. Cooler temperatures and gusty winds are
  expected, especially across southeast WI.

- Gale force gusts expected across southern third of Lake
  Michigan through the evening hours.

- Chances (mainly 20 to 30 percent) for precipitation returns to
  the area for middle to later portions of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 556 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Outside of some light rain and ice pellets being reported in the
Madison area and near Lone Rock, most of the area has remained
dry as a weak band of reflectivity on radar has worked southeast
this afternoon. A few sprinkles/flurries can't be ruled out as
the reflectivities continue to push southeast of the area into
the early evening.

Skies then clear tonight, with overnight lows in the mid 20s.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Shower chances have pushed out to the southeast with the exiting
low pressure system. Winds remain breezy early this evening
given the higher pressure gradient between the departing low and
incoming high pressure. However winds will decline as the high
pushes into the western Great Lakes region into Monday morning.
Dry conditions are expected for Monday with no moisture or
forcing in the region and thus skies are expected to be clear.
High pressure will gradually push out into the day Tuesday
possibly lingering long enough to impact the incoming front from
a low in Ontario/Quebec. There will be moisture pushing with
some WAA. Models generally keep us dry because of lower level
dry air likely preventing precip from reach the surface,
however, given high moisture from 700-500mb, some midlevel WAA
and PVA aloft it remains possible that some precip can make it
through, likely as rain given temperatures Tuesday though if
precip can make it through the dry layer early Tuesday morning
we could see some snowfall. By Tuesday night we will see the now
warm front north of the region with any precip chances overnight
remaining with the warm front in northern WI.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Wednesday through Sunday:

Broad warm frontogenesis will develop across northern Wisconsin
Wednesday, with a few showers possible across southern Wisconsin
within the WAA regime. Low pressure will eject from the Rockies
Wednesday night, deepening across the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Thursday and bringing rain and perhaps some thunderstorms across
southern Wisconsin (20-30% chances, isolated to scattered in
nature). With strong southerly winds in the morning, expecting
highs in the 60s. Low pressure ejects into southeastern Ontario
Thursday night, dragging a strong cold front through the area and
bringing gusty northerly winds through the overnight hours. Expect
lows in the upper 20s. Northerly winds will slowly diminish into
Friday as high pressure builds into the central Plains, with highs
in the upper 30s to low 40s.

An additional clipper system propagates through southern Canada
Friday night through Saturday, turning winds to southwesterly and
bringing a return to the upper 40s to low 50s. Sunday, winds
remain out of the southwest as low pressure develops in the lee of
the Colorado Rockies, bringing highs in the 50s.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 610 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A mixture of VFR and MVFR cigs are present over southern WI,
with MVFR coincident with a band of light reflectivities working
southeast through the area. Dry air has kept these
reflecitivities as mostly virga, save for some brief
sprinkles/light rain and ice pellets at KLNR and KMSN. As this
band works southeast into this evening, a few sprinkles/flurries
can't be ruled out, but most of the area should remain dry.

Clouds then clear heading into tonight and breezy north winds
should ease toward daybreak on Monday as high pressure works
into the area. Expect continuing VFR tomorrow amid light and
variable winds. Some fair weather cu may form with bases around
5000 to 6000 ft.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Low pressure around 29.5 inches will continue east across the
southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. As this low pushes
out, the pressure gradient remains strong for a period into
tonight. Gales continue to be regularly seen in the nearshore
areas. A Gale Warning remains through mid evening for the
southern nearshore zones (Small Craft northern zones) and
through the entire evening for the southern 3rd of the open
waters for gusts from 35 to 40 kts, with a few isolated gusts
to 45 kts possible.

High pressure around 30.4 inches will build into the Great Lakes
Region from Canada tonight into Monday bringing decreasing winds
with northerly gales falling later this evening. As this high
exits Tuesday and a weak front passes, winds may pick up a bit
from the south. Winds over the lake will remain largely from the
south through Wednesday as broad low pressure approaches from
the west. Chances for precipitation on Tuesday and again on
Wednesday though primarily for northern parts of the lake.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Sunday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 1 AM Monday.

&&

$$

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