NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 121203
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
603 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trending well above-normal (5-15+ degrees) in southwest
  Wisconsin Thursday & areawide Friday through the middle of
  next week.

- Mainly dry conditions through early next week, with the next
  chances (~30 to 50%) for widespread rain returning late
  Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 604 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Clouds continue to stream into southern Wisconsin from a weak
low pressure system to the southwest. Any isolated rain showers
associated with this system are expected to remain in Iowa and
Illinois. Warm front may nose up into southwestern Wisconsin,
bringing highs in the low to mid 40s. Meanwhile, near Lake
Michigan, expect southeasterly winds bringing highs only in the
low 30s from far southeastern WI to central WI.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1148 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Today through Thursday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: High pressure is in the process of crossing
southern Wisconsin late this evening, resulting in light/variable or
calm surface winds across the region. An area of surface low
pressure has been analyzed along the South Dakota-Nebraska border,
with an accompanying warm front extending east from the low into
southern Minnesota and east-central Iowa. Affiliated with the
aforementioned surface warm front, increasing warm advection &
frontogenesis near the 925 mb level has encouraged a band of low-mid
cloud development from west-central into south-central Wisconsin.
Sky conditions remain clearer further east. Currently over
southeastern Montana, an upper shortwave will shift from the
Northern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley from the rest of the
overnight into Thursday morning, bringing increasing mid-upper level
clouds to all of southern Wisconsin. High pressure will progress
into the Ohio River Valley Thursday afternoon, allowing the warm
front currently west of the region to slowly work northeast.
Anticipate that the boundary will make it into southwestern
Wisconsin by mid-late afternoon, with lingering snow pack & light
east winds off Lake Michigan hindering further northeastward
progress. Thus anticipate relatively wide high temperature spread
from southwest to northeast on Thursday afternoon. The front will
gradually wash out Thursday night as low level southwesterly winds
become predominant areawide.

Rest of Tonight: While not expected to be widespread, a few patches
of shallow ground fog can't be ruled out with winds remaining light
and variable. Potential for ground fog would be greatest in low-
lying spots. Don't anticipate any dense fog if/where any shallow
ground fog forms, with any activity quickly dissipating after
daybreak.

Thursday: With a warm front working into southwestern Wisconsin,
expect relatively wide spread in daytime highs (potentially 10-15
degrees) from southwest to northeast, with areas along/behind the
warm front climbing into the mid-upper 40s & spots further northeast
remaining in the mid-upper 30s. With easterly winds blowing off Lake
Michigan further north and east, could even see a weak lake breeze
develop by late afternoon, which would locally knock temperatures
back into the lower 30s near the immediate lakeshore.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1148 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

Synopsis: High pressure will continue to migrate east into the
Appalachians on Friday, maintaining southwesterly surface flow &
moderating temperatures areawide. Large scale west-southwest winds
will remain persistent through the majority of the long term period,
allowing well above-normal warmth (temperatures between 5-15+
degrees higher than average) to continue into the middle of next
week. Whether any record high temperatures will be set---
particularly at inland locations during the Saturday to Monday time
frame---remains uncertain as of this forecast, with trends being
monitored over coming updates. Due in large part to a lack of
overlap between focused forcing mechanisms & sufficient low level
moisture, conditions will remain mostly if not entirely dry through
the beginning of next week across southern Wisconsin. A more
organized disturbance will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley
Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing the next chances for
widespread precipitation to the area. Given very mild antecedent
conditions, currently anticipate that said precip would fall as all
rain.

Saturday Night into Sunday: If there were to be any changes to the
currently completely dry forecast through early next week, this
would be the first of two time periods to monitor. A northern stream
shortwave will quickly move from the Canadian Prairies to Lake
Superior, pulling a weak cold front across the region in the
process. A dry frontal passage is currently favored, as a far more
potent southern stream trough is progged to simultaneously move from
the Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley & command the
majority/all of low level moisture transport. Nevertheless, if
moisture transport to the northern stream system were to tick
upward, a few light sprinkles or rain showers would become possible
along the passing cold frontal boundary. Will continue to monitor
trends in coming forecasts. Any "cool down" affiliated with the
front will be minor, given an anticipated mild post-frontal air mass
and return of southwesterly winds by Sunday evening.

Monday: This will be the second of two time periods to monitor for
potential shifts away from the currently dry forecast through
Tuesday. Occurring in response to returning southwesterly flow, a
renewed push of low level warm advection will move into the western
Great Lakes, with accompanying frontogenesis encouraging some
potential scattered rain showers. Guidance currently paints said
frontogenesis over mainly northern Wisconsin, though any southward
trends would put parts of the area in position to see some scattered
light showers. Will continue to watch north-south trends over the
coming forecasts.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Global deterministic & ensemble
guidance shows the most organized disturbance of the period moving
into the western Great Lakes. Lift from the disturbance, combined
with accompanying surface fronts, will thus support the lone chance
for widespread & measurable precip of the forecast period. Have
maintained the ~30-50% precip probabilities from the NBM in the
evening forecast given lingering uncertainties regarding the precise
timing of the disturbance and frontal passages. With well above-
normal temperatures in place areawide, currently expect that all
precip would fall as rain.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 604 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout today and tonight into Friday
morning. Expect a layer of clouds around 7000 ft this morning,
rising to around 10,000 ft this afternoon, and scattering out
into tonight. Light and variable winds will shift to become
east- southeasterly by this afternoon, then will become light
and variable to calm overnight. Winds become southwesterly into
Friday morning.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1148 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

1026 mb high pressure is centered over central Wisconsin late this
evening, with west-northwest winds tapering across the open waters
of Lake Michigan. Winds will continue to lighten through the
remainder of the overnight hours into Thursday afternoon as the
aforementioned area of high pressure gradually crosses the waters.
The high will progress east into Appalachian Mountains Thursday
night through Friday, allowing for light southwesterly winds to
become established across the lake. Generally west-southwest winds
will continue through Saturday as 1002 mb low pressure forms over
northern Manitoba. Low pressure will continue east across the Hudson
Bay Saturday night through Sunday morning, pulling a weak cold front
across Lake Michigan in the process. Precipitation is not currently
anticipated during the frontal passage, though winds will briefly
shift out of the northwest Sunday afternoon behind the departing
boundary.

Winds will trend light & variable Sunday night, when 1020 mb high
pressure is forecast to move across the open waters. Winds will
trend south to southwesterly Monday as the high shifts east, with
readings steadily increasing through Tuesday as 998 mb low pressure
forms over the northern Great Plains. Said low will approach and
ultimately cross the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday,
resulting in a westerly wind shift by Wednesday afternoon. A few
gales are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, though
how widespread they would be remains uncertain. Trends will continue
to be monitored in coming forecasts. Rain will accompany the passing
low Tuesday night through Wednesday, with some snow possible over
northern Lake Michigan.

Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated in nearshore
zones through this weekend. Wind gusts and wave heights will
steadily increase Monday through Wednesday ahead of developing low
pressure in the Northern Plains, resulting in a likely return of
Small Craft Advisory conditions from as early as Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday. Trends will continue to be monitored over coming
forecasts, with any headlines being addressed closer to the onset of
conditions early next week.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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