NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 140323 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
923 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
  remainder of the week then return to near normal for early
  next week.

- Chance of rain (35 to 45%) Mon night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 923 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Mid level clouds associated with warm air advection will
continue to gradually exit to the east late this evening. Skies
will then be mostly clear for the overnight hours, aside from a
few passing high clouds at times. Low temperatures look on track
for tonight, with no significant updates to the forecast
anticipated.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 305 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Tonight through Friday night:

A mid level cloud deck is making its way across southern WI this
afternoon. It is associated with 700mb warm air advection and
coincident moisture. The back edge is expected to clear out from
west to east between 6pm and midnight.

With a weak pressure gradient over the area and clearing skies,
winds will decouple quickly this evening. Increasing southwest
winds with warm air advection just above the surface should keep
the surface temperatures from plummeting, so raised the minT a
degree or two above the precip forecast. Lows in the 33 to 36
degree range tonight, warmer near the lakeshore and cooler
toward north central WI.

The warm air advection will continue into Friday, and with
upstream temps over-achieving today, I leaned toward higher end
of guidance for highs over southern WI tomorrow. Highs should be
in the lower to mid 60s, coolest toward Sheboygan. Winds will be
out of the south, but less than 15 mph.

A low pressure trough approaching from the Northern Plains will
strengthen as it crosses Lake Superior, MN and WI Friday
evening. A period of lower clouds is expected with the warm air
advection Friday evening, but with no rain.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 305 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

The surface cold front will slide southeast through WI on
Saturday, crossing srn WI midday. There will be clouds, but the
chance for precip continues to diminish since low level moisture
is not sufficient. Temps ahead of the front should be in the
lower 60s if clouds do not arrive early. Gusty northwest winds
are expected behind this cold front, along with cold air
advection. Lows Sat night will be back down in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. The cold advection will ease Sunday as high pressure
approaches, so temps should rebound into the mid to upper 40s,
although northwest winds will be brisk.

Our next chance for rain, or a rain-snow mix, will occur Monday
evening through Tuesday. This would be associated with a low-
amplitude shortwave trough crossing the center of the country.
Many model solutions barely clip southern WI with the precip and
keep it mainly in IL. The chance is decreasing slightly, down
to 35 to 45%. There is no strong cold air advection here, so
the chance for snow is even lower than it is for rain.

A more amplified system will cross the Central Plains on
Thursday and could bring our next bigger chance for rain
Thursday through Friday. There is still a lot of uncertainty
about how far north the precip would get though.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 923 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Skies will continue to clear late this evening as mid-level
clouds exit to the east. Mostly clear skies are then expected
overnight through the day Friday, aside from a few passing high
clouds at times. Light and variable winds most places tonight
will become southerly 5 to 10 knots Friday ahead of an
approaching trough.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 305 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

High pressure over the mid Atlantic States will continue to
exit tonight as a low pressure trough approaches from the
Northern Plains. Winds will become southerly Friday and increase
Friday night. The low will strengthen as it crosses Lake
Superior Saturday morning. West to northwest gales are looking
more likely later Saturday into Sunday behind the low and
associated cold front. The gales look lower-end, below 40 kt,
and would be along the east half of Lake Michigan.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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