NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 031957
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
157 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are trending well above normal through the end
  of the week.

- Additional periods of rain are forecast Wednesday night into
  Thursday (about 40 to 70 percent chances) and Friday into
  Saturday (80-plus percent chances). Some thunderstorms are
  possible in each round of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 157 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Tonight and Wednesday:

Drizzle lingers on radar along an access of mid level
frontogenesis and weak upper level DIV. Low level dry is eating
away at these patchy areas of drizzle. The dry air and
developing high pressure system overhead will bring an end to
what drizzle we can see on radar this afternoon. Cloud cover is
diminishing from north to south this afternoon as well which
will give us all a peak at the sun/blue skies before sunset.
With the clear skies and light winds tonight there will be a
potential for some patchy fog to develop. The one limiting
factor will be that dry air. Guidance does suggest a very
shallow near sfc layer with just enough moisture to produce
patchy fog. Best chances by far will be low lying areas, river
valleys and marsh lands. Temperatures will fall below freezing
tonight as fog develops so there is a non zero chance for some
freezing fog, but this will be contingent on if fog develops
and how dense it becomes. Typically you need untreated sfcs with
dense fog to create slick spots. So not anticipating widespread
issues if we do get fog/freezing fog, but also can't rule out
the potential (mostly for elevated and untreated sfcs).

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 157 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Wednesday night through Tuesday:

A couple chances for rain and thunderstorms through the
extended. The first of which looks to arrive Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. A low pressure system in the central
Plains will track northeast into the southern Great Lakes Region
Wednesday late evening/night. The track of the low looks to keep
most of the better chances for rain and storms to our south.
Scattered showers are possible (30-60%) for areas mainly along
and south of a line from Monroe to Madison to Sheboygan.
Instability with this system will be low with easterly winds
keeping lakeshore areas more stable than areas west. Overall
thunder chances are around 15% or less with the best chances for
a few rumbles being along the WI/IL border. This is the area
that we get any MUCAPE on some of the meso models. Not
anticipating any stronger to severe storms there is just not
enough forcing or instability to get that. Lightning and brief
heavy downpours will be the primary concerns. Even with the
frozen ground, our rivers and lakes can take any water from
these brief downpours.

The next chance for rain and storms follows quickly on the heels
of the first for Friday through Saturday morning. A trough will
cut across the Rockies Friday morning before advecting
northeast into the Great Lakes Region Friday night. Guidance
still have some uncertainties in exact track of the low which
are more apparent when looking at 500 mb or lower. The average
among guidance has the sfc low tracking from the eastern Rockies
northeast into Wisconsin/Michigan by Saturday morning. As this
low pressure moves through there will be a warm and cold front
to keep an eye on. WAA will bring unseasonable warm temperatures
and increased moisture into the state throughout the day
Friday. Widespread rain (80-90%) is expected along this WAA
during the day Friday. The warm front looks to move through late
Friday evening into Friday night followed by the cold front
Saturday morning. This time period where the warm front passes
and the cold front follows will be one to keep an eye on. This
will be the timing for some potentially stronger to severe
storms should we have a more northern track with the sfc low
pressure. For the few models that are a bit more rambunctious,
this would line up with the LLJ and some upper level jet
dynamics. This would be a higher shear event and would hinge on
the any instability we would get overnight. A slightly more
southern track may keep the warm front completely out of the
state which would result in thunderstorms but little to no
severe chances. The take away is rain is likely, thunderstorms
are possible and to keep an eye on the forecast for some
stronger storm potential.

Looking beyond this system, there will be another low pressure
system and upper level trough that passes to the north of the
state Sunday night. Rain chances look to stay well to our north,
but a dry cold front will pass through southern Wisconsin. This
will briefly tamper the southwest winds and waa as the front
passes. The next potential chance for rain looks to hold off
then until mid next week. Otherwise the main story through the
weekend is above normal temperatures across southern Wisconsin.
Highs look to climb into the 60s on Friday and stay in the upper
50s to mid 60s through the weekend. For context normal highs
during this time of year are around 40 to 42 degrees.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 157 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected through the period. The
lower MVFR ceilings around 1 to 2 kft are expected through the
afternoon and into the evening hours. Light and variable winds
are expected. Skies will gradually start to clear from north to
south this evening as weak high pressure moves into the area.
Patchy fog is possible tonight into early Wednesday morning with
the clear skies, and light winds. Visibilities could fall to
4-6 SM. As temperatures fall below freezing early Wednesday
morning there is a very small chance (5% or less) for freezing
fog. For freezing fog and slick conditions to develop we will
need temperatures below freezing and dense fog. Will leave any
mention out of the TAFs for freezing fog as chances are so low.

Winds will remain light and be east to southeasterly Wednesday
morning ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Cloud cover
will increase again from south to north as this low moves toward
the southern Great Lakes Region. This low is expected to pass
to our south of the state Wednesday evening/night. There will be
chances for rain and a few thunderstorms Wednesday night.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 157 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

An upper disturbance crossing the region may bring light rain/freezing
rain to the southern half of Lake Michigan this morning. Winds
will continue to weaken through tonight across the lake, as weak
high pressure around 30.3 inches develops over the area.

Light south to southwesterly winds will continue across the
northern half of Lake Michigan into Wednesday, while winds shift
out of the east further south in response to developing low
pressure around 29.9 inches in the middle Mississippi River
Valley. This low will pass just to the south of Lake Michigan
Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing for east to northeast
winds to become established. Rain showers will spread north
across the open waters as the low pressure system passes. A few
thunderstorms are possible over far southern Lake Michigan
Thursday.

Low pressure around 29.5 inches will develop in the central Plains
Thursday night, and track toward the Upper Mississippi River
Valley by Friday evening. This low will move near or just north
of Lake Michigan later Friday night into Saturday morning,
quickly moving into Quebec by Saturday evening. As the low passes
to the north, south to southwest winds will steadily increase
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, ultimately veering
westerly Saturday afternoon. Winds will be gusty at times during
this period, with a few gales possible Friday night into Saturday
morning. Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will accompany
the approaching and passing low Friday through Saturday.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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