NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 100549
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected this week.

- Small chances for light snow Thursday into Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Overnight through Tuesday Night:

The low level jet pushing into central WI and weak vorticity
advection are enough for producing ice crystals aloft over the
north half of WI and portions of southern WI. The low layers
(below 10,000 ft) of the atmosphere over southern WI are very dry.
Thus, we are seeing light returns on mosaic radar but nothing is
reaching the ground, indicating virga. This forcing will exit the
area just before daybreak.

Then a cold front will sweep across southern WI in the morning and
bring gusty northwest winds and low clouds. Expect brisk gusts up
to 30 mph during the afternoon, and clouds to break apart as the
day goes on. Temperatures are above freezing toward the IL border
and between 28 and 30 toward central WI (late this evening) where
they had brief clearing in the evening. The temps will not make a
lot of upward progress during the day Tuesday due to the cold air
advection, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 30s, still
above normal.

Winds and clouds will gradually diminish through Wednesday as the
low pressure system exits the region and high pressure moves
overhead. Lows Tue nt will be in the lower 20s and highs Wed will
rebound into the lower 30s northeast to upper 30s southwest.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Wednesday Night through Monday:

A mid level shortwave trough dropping through southern MN and the
borders of IA, WI and IL late Wed nt into Thu morning is
coincident with the nose of a low level jet and some subtle lift
from the entrance region of a weakening upper level jet. This
forcing may be enough for light precip along a fairly narrow
axis, although the forcing (and chance for precip) weakens quickly
Thu morning as it gets further into northern IL and southeast WI.
The precip type looks like light, fluffy snow with the forcing
within at least part of the dendritic growth zone. Depending on
the speed of the system this snow would occur early Thu morning to
early Thu afternoon or Thu afternoon to early evening.

The focus for precip will shift southward for the weekend as the
baroclinic zone sets up there and high pressure sets up over the
Great Lakes. This will leave southern WI dry Fri through Sun with
temperatures running above normal. There are small chances for
precip over srn WI Sat through Sun, but the trend in the models is
for dry weather. There is growing agreement in a stronger low
pressure system to track across the southern States and keep the
precip chances well south of WI.

A weak shortwave from the northern wave may dip down across WI Sun
afternoon/night so cannot rule out the need to add precip chances
in later forecasts. Beyond Monday, an amplified upper trough is
expected to push onshore from the Pacific. This will bring the
potential for a stronger system to affect the Upper Midwest by
late next week.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A strong 850mb jet will support southwesterly wind shear over all
of the area from 35 to 40 knots through the overnight hours. A
mix of mid and high clouds will persist over southern WI through
the night. Expect lighter southerly winds at the surface until
early morning, and then a lull with a wind shift to the west
around daybreak. Winds will become northwesterly following a cold
frontal passage by mid morning. Gusts up to 30 knots are expected into
the late afternoon hours. A period of MVFR ceilings is looking
more likely along and for a few hours behind the cold front from
mid morning through mid afternoon, with clouds becoming more
scattered later in the day.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Brisk southerly winds will continue over Lake Michigan tonight
as low pressure tracks across northern Ontario. A cold front will
cross Lake Michigan early Tuesday, bringing brisk west to
northwest winds through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect Tuesday for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan due to
gusty northwest winds.

High pressure will set up over the Great Lakes Wednesday night
through Saturday. Winds will be on the lighter side and mainly out
of the southwest.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM
     Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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