NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 011915
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
215 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasingly warm and still very low relative humidity days
  through Thursday.

- Increasing humidity and thunderstorm chances for late in the
  week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 214 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

The mid to high clouds have thinned this afternoon via
differential AVA, but they will not completely dissipate until
after the passage of a final lobe of vorticity that is rotating
around the large upper trough to the east. That will occur this
evening and will also be followed by 1030 mb high pressure
building from Hudson Bay to over Lake MI by Tue afternoon. Thus,
large scale subsidence is expected tnt-Tue with high temps on
Tue ranging from the 60s at the Lake MI shoreline to upper 70s
over south central WI.

A narrow upper ridge will then shift from the Upper MS River
Valley and Lake Superior region on Tue to the lower Great Lakes
by late Wed, while the sfc high moves to the lower Great Lakes
and ern Ohio Valley. Light sly winds will return Wed to srn WI
with temps warming into the lower 80s inland with 70s near the
lake before the lake breeze develops.

Weak shortwave troughs will continue to roll the ridge toward
the ern seaboard with swly winds and increased warm advection
for srn WI. High temps for Thu are forecast to reach the middle
80s with an afternoon lake breeze developing near Lake MI.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 214 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Thursday night through Monday:

An active weather pattern is still expected to develop for later
this week. The first chance for precipitation continues to be
Thursday night as a shortwave trough moves east from the
Mississippi River Valley toward Michigan late Thursday into Friday
morning, with activity dropping into Friday. The southwesterly
winds from the Gulf will draw moisture into southern WI,
contributing to increased instability through Friday evening and
into early Saturday.

A slow-moving shortwave trough will make its way through northern
WI Saturday afternoon, bringing a cold front/surface low and the
potential for showers and thunderstorms, with some possibly
becoming severe due to the moist air mass over southern WI.
Initial forecasts suggest that 1.5"+ precipitable water values
will be present during this time frame, increasing the risk of
heavy rain.

Chances for showers/storms Saturday night into Sunday will depend
on the position of the outflow boundary and frontal location. The
shortwave trough is expected to move east, followed by shortwave
ridging into WI, but continued high humidity/temperatures could
create small chances for showers or storms.

Beyond Monday, the upper ridge is expected to remain over
southern WI and the Great Lakes, with continuing high
humidity/temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 214 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon through Tue and Wed.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 214 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

High pressure around 30.4 inches over Hudson Bay will move to
Ontario and Lake Superior by early Tuesday morning, then south
over Lake Michigan for Tuesday afternoon and night. Expect light
to modest north to northeasterly winds this afternoon to turn
more easterly late tonight, but back to northerly on Tuesday.
Light and variable winds are then forecast later Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

Light to modest southerly winds will then return to Lake Michigan
for Wednesday and Wednesday night as the high slowly moves east of
the region. Winds are expected to gradually increase and shift
more southwesterly for Thursday afternoon and night as low pressure
around 29.7 inches tracks east across Ontario. Accompanying the
late week system will be chances of showers and storms that will
continue into the weekend.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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