NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 271738
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1238 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light scattered snow showers (20-30%) possible this afternoon
  northeast of line from WI Dell to Milwaukee. At most a
  dusting and brief drops in visibility possible.

- Dry and windy this weekend approaching elevated fire weather
  conditions possible.


- Warm up this weekend and above normal temps are expected for
  the start of next week.

- Trends continue to favor an active pattern next week, with
  multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night
  through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

Continue to monitor the upper-level shortwave trough swinging
through the Upper Midwest today. Seeing light radar reflectivity
across northwestern WI and based on the current trajectory still
looks to clip our northeastern portions of the CWA. Mainly
looking between 18z-23z timing of these light snow showers. May
see some flurries linger into the evening, but overall less
confident on seeing things linger into the evening. Given the
dry air ahead of it and milder surfaces temps, mainly looking at
a brief window for these quick snow showers. Might see brief
drops in visibility (1-3 miles for less than an hour and
briefly below 1 mi at times), but looking at just enough snow to
wet the roads and maybe see a dusting on elevated surfaces such
as bridges/overpasses.

Otherwise, high pressure will continue to build across the
Upper Mississippi River Valley this evening and move across
southern WI tonight. Given the subsidence, light winds, and
mostly clear skies looking at temps to fall into the 20s
overnight into early Saturday morning. High pressure will
continue to march east- southeast through Saturday morning and
more into the Ohio River Valley region by Saturday afternoon. As
a result expect upper- level ridge to build over our neck of
the woods with more south- southwesterly winds. The WAA regime
will begin to bring in milder temps for Saturday with highs in
the upper 40s to lower 50s, especially for inland southern WI.

The other concern for Saturday will be the increasing winds,
milder temps, and deeper mixing resulting in lower dewpoints and
relative humidity through the afternoon. While recent rainfall
yesterday have aided in higher fuel moisture content, the
increase winds and dry conditions may still be conducive for
some elevated fire weather concerns, especially western
portions of the area that will need to keep an eye on.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Will continue to see the warming trend Sunday through the start
of next week as ridge axis flattens and then rebuilds over the
region while a system develops over the central CONUS. Continue
to see above normal temp trend for the start of next week. High
confidence in see temps in the 60s and even beginning to see
more hints of 70F temp Monday and Tuesday as mid-range models
come into better agreement. Again the warmer temps will be
inland while areas closer to Lake still looking to remain 5-15F
cooler, especially with any onshore flow or lake breezes than
may develop in this stronger temp gradient setup.

Still monitoring the pattern becoming more active Tuesday
through midweek as an upper-level trough deepens and digs across
the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest. While we
continue to see varying solutions on the the track and strength
of the associated surface feature for this system, general
trends have the low tracking somewhere across WI and having our
CWA either partial or fully in the warm sector depending on
which model suite you look at. Nevertheless, still have higher
confidence in increased PoP chances with this Tuesday-Wednesday
system and thunderstorm chances. While still enough differences
between models and being a couple days out for any specifics,
there is still a potential to see some stronger storms with the
Tuesday system given the upper-level dynamics aligning with low-
level forcing and moisture.

Wednesday into Thursday is looking quieter as high pressure and
cooler conditions fill in behind the aforementioned system.
However, long range models continue to trend toward another
active pattern toward the end of next week.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure
works its way across the region through tonight and departing
to the east-southeast by midday Saturday. Still looking like a
few scattered snow showers and mid-level clouds to clip east-
central WI this afternoon and early afternoon. SBM terminal has
the better potential of seeing this activity, but given the dry
air and light nature of this activity, have maintain PROB30 to
account for its impacts. Otherwise, mainly a wind forecast
through the period. Will see some gusty northwesterly winds
this afternoon, but winds become light an variable as high
pressure moves overhead overnight into Saturday morning. Then
expect winds to shift more southwesterly an increase Saturday
afternoon.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Some lingering gusty northwesterly winds this afternoon, but
will gradually weaken as the high pressure builds across the
region and pass over the southern half of Lake Michigan
overnight through Saturday morning. As the high moves more east-
southeast Saturday may see southwesterly winds pick up Saturday
afternoon. Conditions may approach small craft conditions for
southeastern WI nearshores, but the more favorable condition
look to be further north. Breezy south- southwesterly winds will
prevail across Lake Michigan into the start of next week. A
more active pattern is expected later Monday through Tuesday and
could see winds shift with warm front later Monday and
increased southerly winds for Tuesday. May also see small craft
conditions and a few thunderstorms during this window as well.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 1 PM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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