NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 130545
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1145 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remaining 5-15+ degrees above normal Friday
  through the middle of next week.

- Areas of fog possible late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
  Can't rule out a few slick spots on any untreated surfaces
  where fog develops.

- Widespread rain chances (~30-60+%) arrive late Tuesday through
  Thursday. Can't rule out some thunder Tuesday night through
  Wednesday or some wet snow late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1148 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Rest of Tonight through Friday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: High pressure is centered from Lower Michigan
to the Ohio River Valley late this evening, resulting in either
variable or light east-southeast winds across southern Wisconsin.
Tied to broad warm advection & lingering convergence near the 700 mb
level, a narrow band of low-mid level clouds continues to linger
over portions of east-central and southeast Wisconsin, keeping
temperatures a couple degrees milder compared to areas under mostly
clear skies. The aforementioned area of high pressure will continue
to migrate southeast into the Appalachians on Friday, allowing
southwesterly winds to take hold across all of southern Wisconsin.
Said winds will advect a mild & modestly more moist air mass into
the region from Central Plains, with high temps ranging from the mid-
upper 40s northeast to upper 40s and low 50s further south and west.
A shortwave ridge is progged to cross the western Great Lakes Friday
night into the predawn hours Saturday, pulling a second area of
surface high pressure into southern Wisconsin in the process. The
arriving high will result in weakening winds Friday night, allowing
for radiational cooling and some potential for areas of fog during
the predawn hours.

Friday night: Will be monitoring for possible fog development
through the predawn hours as high pressure moves in and winds taper.
Extent of potential fog development remains uncertain as of this
forecast, with the timing of tapering winds & influence of any upper
level clouds both playing key roles in fog formation and coverage.
Uncertainties aside, did note a consistent enough signal for at
least some fog development in the 00Z guidance suite to justify
mentions in the evening forecast update. Will continue to monitor
trends regarding preferred locations, coverage, and thickness of
potential fog over the coming updates. In the event fog forms, a few
slick spots would be possible as temperatures fall to and below the
freezing mark.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1148 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

Synopsis: Mainly southwest to southeasterly low level winds will
persist Saturday into the middle of next week, allowing for an
anomalously mild air mass to remain entrenched across the Upper
Midwest. Said air mass will result in above-normal high temperatures
areawide Saturday through Wednesday. Warmest overall time periods
will occur when winds veer southwesterly, with modestly cooler
conditions possible closer to Lake Michigan on days where winds back
out of the southeast. Monday is currently favored as the warmest day
of the period. Weak disturbances will traverse the US-Canada border
Saturday through Monday, possibly pulling a pair of weak surface
fronts into the area Saturday night into Sunday & once more on
Monday. Dry conditions are anticipated during each potential frontal
passage, with meager baroclinicity across the boundaries leading to
negligible impacts on temperatures following their passages. A much
more organized upper disturbance remains forecast to eject into the
Northern Plains on Tuesday, encouraging surface cyclogenesis in the
Dakotas. The low is progged to advance east toward Wisconsin Tuesday
night through Wednesday with its parent upper wave, bringing
widespread rain chances back to the region. Precipitation chances
could continue Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front lingers
in the vicinity of southern Wisconsin, with cooling temperatures
supporting some potential for a wet rain-snow mix.

Monday: Currently looking at this time frame to be the mildest of
the upcoming warm stretch, with brisk southwesterly winds forecast
areawide. Current forecast from the NBM depicts widespread highs in
the 50s away from Lake Michigan, with some potential (~50-60%+) for
mid-upper 50s moving further inland. Whether the inland warmth will
be able to challenge records (57 at MSN in 1981) remains uncertain,
though any further upward trends would lead to increased confidence
in new record highs. Will continue to be monitoring guidance over
the coming forecasts.

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday: Widespread rain chances return
to southern Wisconsin as an upper disturbance and surface low move
across the state. Given antecedent & continuing warmth, current
expectation is for precipitation to remain as all rain into
Wednesday afternoon. Composite soundings from the LREF (combined
GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles) do hint at some weak
instability Tuesday night & potentially once again on Wednesday
afternoon, so some thunder can't be ruled out. Given considerable
lingering spread regarding the precise track, strength, and timing
of the passing surface low, it remains far too early to speculate on
the potential for any hazards beyond general thunder during this
part of the period. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming
forecasts & provide updates if necessary.

Wednesday evening through Thursday: Low pressure will be in the
process of moving east of the area, though lift from a lingering
cold front & second potential upper disturbance will support
continued precipitation chances over southern Wisconsin. With
temperatures beginning to cool along/behind the lingering front,
could see some rain-snow mix or a changeover to all snow at some
point during this time frame. It remains too early to offer any
specifics regarding possible accumulation. Will continue to monitor
trends in coming forecasts.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1148 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR flight categories prevail areawide late this evening, and are
expected to continue through the duration of the 24 hour forecast
period. Deck of low-mid level clouds based near FL080 has lingered
longer than initially anticipated near the Lake Michigan shoreline,
with ongoing trends being accounted for near-term in the 06Z
forecast. Anticipate that said clouds will gradually decay through
the predawn hours, though trends will continue to be monitored
tonight. Winds will shift southwesterly Friday morning at all
terminals as high pressure continues to move east through the Ohio
River Valley. Winds will taper Friday night into Saturday morning as
a second area of high pressure moves in from the west, resulting in
light/variable winds near and after midnight. Will be monitoring for
potential FG development during the predawn hours Saturday, with
peak potential just beyond the current 24 hour forecast period. Have
inserted some VIS reductions & BR mentions nearing the conclusion of
the 30 hour period at MKE, with the expectation that similar
additions may be needed at other sites in the 12Z update. Will
continue to monitor trends regarding preferred development locations
& thickness of potential FG over the next 12-24 hours.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1148 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

1025 mb high pressure is shifting east of Lake Michigan late this
evening, resulting in light east to southeast winds across the open
waters. Winds will veer southerly through the second half of the
overnight hours as said high moves into the Ohio River Valley. Winds
will continue to veer through Friday, with southwesterly readings
becoming established as 1006 mb low pressure moves from the southern
Hudson Bay into Quebec. Gusts between 25-30 knots are possible over
the northern third of Lake Michigan Friday morning, though gales are
not anticipated. Winds will trend light and variable Friday evening
into Saturday as 1022 mb high pressure approaches and ultimately
crosses the open waters. Winds will veer south to southwesterly
ahead of a weak cold front Saturday night. The front is forecast to
cross the waters early Sunday morning, bringing a brief
northwesterly wind shift during the afternoon hours. Winds will
shift back to the southwest Sunday night through Monday, when 1004
mb low pressure is forecast to develop over northern Ontario.

Stronger low pressure near 990 mb will form over the northern Great
Plains during the day on Tuesday, resulting in increasing
southeasterly winds over Lake Michigan. Winds will continue to
increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as the low approaches and
eventually crosses Lake Michigan. The low will progress east of the
waters Wednesday afternoon & evening, resulting in a gusty east-
northeast wind shift Wednesday night through Thursday morning. A few
gale force gusts are possible Tuesday night through Thursday
morning, with trends being monitored for possible headlines over
coming forecasts. Rain and snow will accompany the approaching
passing/low Tuesday evening through Thursday, with a few rumbles of
thunder possible Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Pockets of light
to moderate freezing spray are possible late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning over the northern half of the waters.

Largely benign conditions prevail in nearshore zones through
the beginning of next week. Winds and waves will steadily
increase ahead of approaching low pressure Tuesday night through
Thursday, resulting in a likely period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions through the middle week period. The need for
potential headlines will be evaluated as this portion of the
period draws closer. Rain and eventually some rain-snow mix will
accompany the approaching/passing low Tuesday night through
Thursday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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