NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 120400
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1000 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow flurries may clip far southwest WI this evening
  with of a dusting of snow or less.

- Light snow may occur Friday afternoon and evening for central
  and east central WI with little if any accumulations.

- An Arctic airmass settles in this weekend with wind chills
  ranging from -10F to -30F late Friday night through Sunday
  night.

- Next week temps return to near normal with daytime temps
  around or above freezing by midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 959 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Breaks in the clouds across central and east central Wisconsin
have caused temperatures to plummet into the single digits this
evening. Breaks in the clouds are patchy as the mid to upper
level clouds move southeast out of the area and low level clouds
develop near simultaneously. Temperatures will fluctuate a bit
as clouds move in and out southern Wisconsin.

As clouds continue to clear temperatures could fall on a more
broad scale tonight. Satellite shows a large area with little to
no clouds upstream which leaves temperatures dependent on low
level stratus. These chances are dwindling as much of the
stratus is developing once the temperatures plummet as
dewpoints range roughly from 10 to 2 degrees across southern
Wisconsin (dewpoint depressions shrinking). The few locations
that have already had falling temperatures are Sheboygan at 8
degrees and Fond du Lac at 3 degrees. This isn't entirely out of
the bounds of the forecast, but temperatures will need to be
adjusted downward slightly. Temperatures were lowered a few
degrees across the area tonight, but most predominantly across
central and east central Wisconsin.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 243 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Tonight through Friday night:

Will continue to see northwesterly upper-level flow with the trough
prevail across the Upper Midwest now through the weekend. This will
bring periodic chances for light snow and keep temps below normal
through the end of the week with high temps on Friday in the 20s and
nightly lows tonight in single digits and below zero Friday night.

This evening will see an embedded shortwave trough work its way down
the main trough. While the more favorable upper-level dynamics
remain south and west of our neck of the woods, there still will be
a glancing blow to southwest WI this evening as the surface low
tracks down the lower Missouri River Valley tonight and up the
Ohio River Valley into Friday. Overall expecting minimal impacts
and accumulations with a dusting to generally less than half an
inch for areas southwest of Madison. These chances will quickly
end by 06z (midnight) tonight.

Then another lobe of mid-level vorticity is progged to works its way
down the trough across the Upper Great Lakes during the day Friday.
This will bring another chance (20-50%) for light scattered snow
into central and east-central WI. Again will be a quick moving wave
with limited accumulation of a dusting to less than half of an inch
ahead and along an Arctic cold front. The slug of moisture looks
confined to the northern half of the CWA, but cannot rule out seeing
light snow/flurries down to the border.

Behind the Arctic front overnight Friday will then begin to see
strong CAA move into the area with a building high pressure. Will
see overnight low temps around zero to negative single digits and
even colder wind chills ranging from -10F to -25F into early
Saturday morning.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 243 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

The bitter cold temps will persist Saturday through Sunday as
the main upper-level trough digs down across the Upper Midwest
advecting the cold Arctic air into the region ahead of a
building +1040mb surface high. Expecting single digit high temps
Saturday and Sunday for inland southern WI with sub zero lows
through Monday night. Given the tighter pressure gradient over
WI between the building high in the northern Plains and a low
pressure gradually working its way east across the eastern
Great lakes, will not see much relief in bitter cold wind chills
through the day Saturday ranging from -10F to around -20F
before plummeting again after sunset to -20F to around -30F
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Will begin to see slightly
warmer wind chills Sunday afternoon as the high pushes further
east with lighter winds. However still expecting overnight winds
chills ranging from -10F to -20F into Monday morning. Will
likely see the first extreme cold headlines of the season with
this blast of bitter cold air this weekend.

Fortunately this cold snap will be brief as the trough slides
east through the start of next week. Temps will begin to warm
back up on Monday as the upper-level ridging begins to build
across the Upper Midwest with highs climbing back into the 20s.
Even milder and near normal temps are progged for Tuesday into
Wednesday with NBM and other ensembles supporting around to
above freezing daytime temps.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 959 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period. Snow
chances have predominately stayed to the southwest of the state
this evening. A few flurries will remain possible over the next
couple of hours, but not expecting much. If any flurries do
occuring, mainly across the far southwest, then a dusting of
snow will be possible. Mid to upper level clouds are moving
southeast out of the state this evening and as the temperatures
fall there will be a potential for low level stratus to develop.
The stratus deck is expected to be around 1 to 2 kft. These
stratus clouds will be patchy and slow moving across southern
Wisconsin. Clear skies will be possible in areas where the upper
level clouds clear and no stratus develops, this is most likely
across portions of central Wisconsin. Clouds will return across
the state Friday as a cold front approaches. The front will pass
Friday afternoon into Friday evening bringing chances for snow
and plummeting temperatures. There will be a potential for MVFR
to IFR ceilings as the front passes. A dusting to a couple
tenths of an inch will be possible. Visibilites of 2-6 SM will
be possible with any snow Friday. Clouds will linger into Friday
night, but ceilings are expected to slowly rise.

Light and variable winds are expected tonight into Friday
morning. West winds late Friday morning will start to increase
and become breezy through the afternoon. Friday night brisk
northwest winds are expected and will continue into Saturday
morning.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 243 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northwest winds will continue to weaken through the evening as
high pressure moves east as a low pressure tracks in from the
Plains tonight and up the Ohio River Valley on Friday. Light
winds overnight will gradually pick up behind the low on Friday
and may be a brief window of west to northwest gust around gale
force Friday night through Saturday night as a strong Arctic
cold front moves through the region. However, due to brisk
conditions, looking like heavy freezing spray will develop
during this period as the colder airmass moves into the Great
Lakes region. Then a strong high pressure will move southeast
from the northern Plains and through the region Sunday and to
the south early next week. Will see winds ease later Sunday, but
gusty winds may return early next week behind the exiting high
as temps warm back to near normal.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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