NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 060320 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
920 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of light rain showers (60 to 90 percent chance) will
  push through southern Wisconsin Thursday evening and
  overnight.

- A Gale Watch is in effect across Lake Michigan Thursday
  evening and overnight, for strong south to southwest winds.

- Additional precip chances (about 40 to 70 percent) are
  expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, with snow and
  rain/snow mix possible. Minor and slushy accumulations cannot
  be ruled out, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces.

- First winter-like air of the season arrives late this weekend
  into early next week, with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
  below normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 920 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Winds will continue to weaken overnight, as high pressure passes
by to the south of the area. Some middle to high clouds may pass
southeast through parts of the area overnight as well. Lows
should drop into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees in most
areas, with lower 30s along the lake.

South winds are then expected to increase gradually on Thursday,
as the pressure gradient slowly tightens across the region.
Middle to high clouds will gradually move east across the area
as well, within some warm air advection. Highs should reach the
middle 50s over most of the area, with lower 50s toward the
Sheboygan area.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 304 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Tonight through Thursday night:

Winds will gradually ease this evening into tonight as high
pressure moves overhead. Skies will remain mostly clear as well
under the high. Southerly winds will develop by Thursday
afternoon ahead of an approaching low pressure system, with
gusty winds likely Thursday evening and overnight as the low
level jet moves overhead. Additionally, a period of showers is
expected Thu evening/night as the trough swings through.

Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees colder tonight than last
night given clear skies, decreasing winds, and a dry airmass in
place. Highs tomorrow will remain a tad above normal under the
developing southerly low level flow. Temps tomorrow night will
remain on the mild side due to the breezy southerly winds and
expected cloud cover.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 304 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

Breezy west to northwest winds are expected on Friday as low
pressure moves from Lake Superior to southern Ontario. With no
big push of colder air behind the departed trough, temperatures
will remain above normal Friday, with highs possibly cracking
60 many places. A cold front will then drop into the area late
Friday into Friday night, with highs likely only topping out in
the mid-40s Saturday.

Low pressure is expected to move through central or northern
Illinois later Saturday into Saturday evening, reaching the
eastern Great Lakes by Sunday morning. There is still potential
for this low to bring some light snow to southern Wisconsin
Saturday evening and overnight. Uncertainty still remains with a
few of the more impactful factors towards any snowfall across
the forecast area. One is the exact low track and strength, with
a moderate spread in these among the latest ECMWF and GFS
ensemble members. Additionally, there is the potential for a
band of heavier precip along the rain/snow transition line,
which could result in some dynamical cooling and localized
higher snowfall rates. Given the latest model guidance,
maintained a rain transitioning to snow forecast for much of
southern Wisconsin Sat evening/night.

Plenty of time for the details of this system to change given
it is still a few days out and the fact that it won't take much
of a north or south wobble in the low track to impact where the
snowfall ends up. Any snow that does accumulate would be mainly
on grassy areas and elevated surfaces. Not out of the question
for a little slushy accumulation on paved surfaces given high
enough snowfall rates, but melting would likely occur once the
rates decrease given the mild ground temps.

Confidence is high that the coldest airmass of the season will
settle into the region Sunday into early next week, with highs
only in the 30s Sun/Mon. Temps may struggle to get out of the
lower to mid 30s Sunday, with a few lingering flurries possible
within the cyclonic flow. Temperatures should then recover
towards mid-week, with highs back near normal by Wednesday.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 920 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Winds will continue to weaken overnight, as high pressure
passes by to the south of the area. Some middle to high clouds
may pass southeast through parts of the area overnight as well.
South winds are then expected to increase gradually on
Thursday, as the pressure gradient slowly tightens across the
region. Middle to high clouds will gradually move east across
the area as well. Gusty south to southwest winds should linger
Thursday night, with some potential for low level wind shear
with 2000 foot AGL winds south to southwest around 40 to 45
knots.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 920 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

The Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire for the
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, as northwest wind gusts have
fallen below 22 knots.

Gusty northwest winds will gradually ease overnight across the
lake, as high pressure around 30.3 inches passes by just to the
south. Southerly winds will then develop on Thursday as the
high continues eastward, increasing Thursday evening into
Thursday night ahead of approaching low pressure. There is
increasing confidence in a round of gales during this period,
with a Gale Watch remaining in effect for the entire lake. The
nearshore waters may see some gales as well during this period.

The low pressure system around 29.3 inches will then pass by
just to the north Friday morning, with winds becoming west to
northwest during the day Friday behind the low and an associated
cold front. More periods of gusty winds will be possible the
second half of the weekend into at least early next week. More
rounds of gale force winds are not out of the question.

DDV/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...8 PM Thursday to 6
     AM Friday.

&&

$$

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