NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 260152
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
752 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold wind chills between 20 and 25 below zero expected
  over all of southern Wisconsin late tonight through Monday
  morning. Cold Weather Advisory in effect from 12 AM to 12 PM
  CST Monday.

- Negative wind chill temps will then prevail for much of the
  week, with only small probabilities for a return to advisory
  level wind chills.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 752 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Stratus clouds are very slowly decreasing over ern WI and may
take until after midnight when boundary layer winds attain more
of a wly component. However, scattered to broken mid level
clouds will also occur through the night as an upper trough
approaching from the west passes through srn WI after midnight.
At the surface, modest nwly winds and cold advection will
prevail with wind chill temps still expected to drop to -20F to
-25F for Mon AM.

Shortwave ridging aloft and at the surface will follow the upper
wave for midday Mon with swly winds and warm advection expected
for later in the afternoon and well into the night. Despite this
high temps only in the single digits are expected with afternoon
and night wind chills in the negative teens. Another cold front
with small chances for light snow will then pass late Mon nt.


Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

The lake effect snow band is starting to shift eastward this
afternoon. Snow ended in Milwaukee and it is over Racine and
Kenosha now. This will move offshore late this afternoon. We
will allow the Winter Weather Advisory to expire at 3 PM.

The low clouds are hanging on across the rest of southern WI
longer than anticipated, but the back edge is slowly eroding
from the west. The low clouds should clear over Madison around
sunset, but it is more uncertain for when they will clear over
Milwaukee. Until the clouds clear, there will be a chance for
flurries since the clouds are sitting within the snow growth
zone.

Looking at forecast RH at various levels in the atmosphere, the
moisture within the 925 and 850mb levels is representing the
location of the current clouds. Drier air will spread into srn
WI by 00Z/7PM but only last until around midnight. There has
been a signal for scattered low clouds and also a mid level
cloud layer from upstream obs over central/southern MN today.
This is in response to a mid level shortwave trough crossing the
region. If these clouds occur over southern WI overnight, then
flurries are possible, but no accumulation. Some models are
showing drier low level air than others, so confidence is low.

With brisk winds in the 10 to 15 mph range overnight and low
temperatures dipping down to around -10 west of Madison and -5
toward southeast WI, the wind chill values will be in the -20 to
-25F range between midnight and late Monday morning. No change
 to the Cold Weather Advisory that is in effect from Midnight
 to Noon.

Monday should be sunny by mid morning after that upper wave
passes by. Temps should be able to rise to near 10 by Mon
evening. This is due to warm air advection on brisk southwest
winds that will be out ahead of a low pressure trough
approaching from the Northern Plains.

Light snow is probable over northern WI Monday evening with the
passage of this trough, and then across southeast WI after
Midnight as the upper wave pushes through. A dusting of snow is
possible. Expect gusty southwest winds Monday afternoon and
evening.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

Gusty northwest winds with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph are
expected Tuesday in the wake of a cold front. Flurries are
possible as well. Temps will hover in the 8 to 10F range Tue,
then drop into the 0 to -5 range Tue nt.

Cyclonic flow will remain over the Upper Great Lakes for the
rest of the week. This will keep us chilly with brisk west to
northwest winds. Highs Wed-Fri will be in the teens. Lows Wed nt
through Fri nt will be in the negative single digits. Minimum
wind chill values each morning will be in the negative teens,
which is above the Cold Weather Advisory criteria of -20F.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 752 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Bkn-ovc035-040 stratus over ern WI will slowly dissipate toward
06Z Mon, but sct-bkn080-100 clouds will occur over srn WI
through 14Z Mon. Areas of MVFR Cigs and small chances for light
snow are then forecast for late Mon nt with the passage of a
cold front.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Elevated waves and cold temperatures will support moderate to
heavy freezing spray at times tonight through Tuesday
afternoon, with a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remaining in
effect between 6 PM CST this evening and 6 PM CST Tuesday.

Brisk westerly winds with gusts up to 25 kt are expected over
nearshore areas most of the time between now and Tuesday
afternoon, so a Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Low pressure will move from the Appalachian Mountains into the
northeastern United States tonight as high pressure builds
further into the central and southern Great Plains. Progression
of the two features will maintain breezy northwest winds over
the open waters, with additional periods of 25-30 knot gusts
possible into Monday morning across the southern half of the
lake. High pressure will build into the Ohio River Valley
Monday afternoon and night as low pressure attempts to form
over Lake Superior, resulting in a west- southwest wind shift
across Lake Michigan. Winds will become gusty at times Monday
night into Tuesday morning, when a few gales are possible over
the southern third of the open waters. While gales are not
expected to be widespread at this time, trends will continue to
be monitored for potential headlines in coming forecasts.

Winds will trend west-northwesterly Tuesday afternoon and night as
high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. Winds will
gradually taper Wednesday through Thursday as said area of high
pressure moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
     WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
     WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
     WIZ072...midnight Monday to noon Monday.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
     until 6 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Tuesday.

&&

$$

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