NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 122003
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
203 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy west-northwest winds will decline this evening.

- Temperatures warm through the week and are trending above
  normal for the end of the week.

- 30 to 50 percent chances for showers early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Tonight through Thursday night:

West to northwest winds will decrease into the evening as the
low pressure pushes east with higher pressure pushing in and
reducing the pressure gradient across the CWA. This will come as
ridging overhead pushes in Thursday keeping conditions largely
clear across the CWA. There will be some mid to upper level clouds
in the southwest tonight with some additional low to midlevel
clouds swing through the CWA Thursday afternoon and more so
into the night associated with some 700mb moisture. However
these cloud decks will likely not be very thick and will also
not stick around very long either.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

Overall we expect a fairly quiet extended period at this point
with Friday into Saturday featuring a developing low in central
Canada bring southerly flow and WAA across the region bringing
increasing temperatures into the 60s, with the warmer day on
Saturday. The upper levels suggest slight potential for some
showers given some moisture and PVA for eastern parts of the
CWA Saturday but limited moisture in the low to mid levels will
really hinder any real precip chances. The front is expected to
come through Saturday night bringing cooler conditions back to
the region for Sunday.

There is some chances for showers come early next week, Monday
night into Tuesday but this still remains very uncertain. This
is largely due to the uncertainty in the track of a developing
surface low and corresponding upper low from the west and the
interaction with a surface high/upper ridge dropping into the
Great Lakes region from Canada. The interaction between these
two systems will ultimately determine how that period pans out
but it is certainly worth mentioning as it looks to be the next
best chance for precip.

We will also be watching late next week for the next system to
push through the area that would likely lead to rain as it looks
to be a warmer system and a fairly high chance (relatively for
the time frame) for some precip given unusual model agreement
that far out. This model agreement doesn't suggest precip will
happen but rather shows a larger system that despite expected
changes to the track, etc., we would still likely see fairly
decent chances for precip.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions continue with largely clear skies expected to
continue. While some periods of clouds will be possible in parts
of southern WI tonight and again Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night, these are expected to be higher clouds. West to
northwest winds will remain breezy through the rest of the
afternoon but will gradually weaken and become lighter tonight
as higher pressure pushes in.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Brisk northwest winds will continue into this evening as low
pressure gradually pushes out of the Great Lakes region. The
low will push east tonight as higher pressure and a weaker
pressure gradient move in from the west. This surface high
will then move east across the lake Thursday night with light
winds becoming variable. Modest southeast winds will then
develop for Friday as another strong low begins to move east
across southern Canada. Breezy southerly winds will develop
Friday night into Saturday as the Canadian low continues
eastward. Its strong cold frontal passage will then shift winds
to brisk northwesterly for Saturday night into Sunday over the
lake. Gales will be possible on the cold advection side behind
the frontal passage Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the mid evening
for breezy west to northwest winds. The advisory may need to be
extended a few hours. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be
needed over the next week particularly Saturday evening through
much of Sunday.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee