NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 230452
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1152 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gale force gusts will continue into the early morning over the
  southern third of the open waters of Lake Michigan

- High pressure moves in on Monday with highs around normal.

- Chances (mainly 20 to 30 percent) for precipitation returns to
  the area for middle to later portions of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1148 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Today through Tuesday Night:

Lingering stratus tonight may moderate low temperatures
depending upon how long the clouds manage to hang on. Given
model guidance doesn't have the cloud cover moving east over
Lake Michigan until shortly before daybreak, low temperatures
have been adjusted upwards a degree or two. Expected lows in the
mid to upper 20s.

High pressure is expected to move in today, leading to calmer
winds and clear skies to start the day. daytime cu is expected
to form over the eastern half of the area during the late
morning and persist into the afternoon, generally clumping close
to a lake breeze boundary thats expected to take shape during
the mid afternoon. Highs will range from the low 40s along the
lakeshore to the upper 40s over southwest WI.

High pressure then exits east tonight with winds coming around
to south-southwesterly. Some warm advection aloft may cause
saturation at the 700mb level early Tuesday morning, but models
show lingering dry air at the sfc from the retreating high
pressure. PoPs were left out and we should avoid flurries or
light snow.

Warm advection continues on Tuesday with dry and cloudier
conditions. Expect highs in the low to mid 50s.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1148 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Wednesday through Saturday:

Models look a bit drier for Wednesday as more pronounced warm
advection leans into the area. Temperatures are expected to rise
into the low 60s across the area as a warm frontal boundary
sharpens across the Upper Midwest. Our next best precipitation
chance for the week moves in on Thursday as a low pressure
system propagates east along the baroclinic zone during the
afternoon and into the evening. Right now the NBM paints 25 to
35% PoPs Thursday afternoon over the area, given some lingering
disagreement between the global models on the positioning of the
baroclinic zone and position of the low. If a GFS solution were
to verify we'd be exposed to more of the warm sector and have
better chances for thunder during the afternoon. We'll continue
to monitor those chances as the week unfolds.

Temperatures dip into the 40s amid cold advection Friday, with
high pressure expected to move through on Saturday. Ridging then
builds again Sunday into Monday, with hints that temperatures
will again push back toward the 60s by the end of the extended
period.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1111 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Some low stratus has hung on this evening mainly inland from
Lake Michigan with ceilings around 3000 to 4000 ft. Models have
this area of clouds moving east-southeast tonight and generally
clearing the area between 10 to 12z, leaving clear skies.

Breezy north winds should ease toward daybreak on Monday as
high pressure works into the area. Expect continuing VFR
tomorrow amid light and variable winds. The day should start
with FEW to CLR skycon, but some fair weather cu may form with
bases around 5000 to 6000 ft inland from Lake Michigan. A weak
lake breeze is also expected along Lake Michigan.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1101 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Gales continue over the southern third of Lake Michigan this
evening as sharp pressure gradient remains over the lake. This
pressure gradient will linger into early Monday, as low pressure
retreats east toward the Delmarva Peninsula and high pressure moves
in from the northern Great Plains. A Gale Warning remains in
effect until 1AM CDT Monday for the southern 3rd of the open
waters for gusts from 35 to 40 kts, with a few isolated gusts to
45 kts possible.

The previously mentioned high pressure will build into the Great
Lakes Region the first half of Monday, bringing decreasing winds
and then briefly light and variable winds Monday evening as the
center of the high pressure passes over the lake. As this high
exits Tuesday and a weak front passes, winds may pick up a bit
from the south. Winds over the lake will remain largely from the
south through Wednesday as broad low pressure approaches from the
west. Chances for precipitation on Tuesday and again on Wednesday
though primarily for northern parts of the lake.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 7 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Monday.

&&

$$

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