NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 260127 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
827 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions are expected next week, possibly
  hitting Heat Advisory criteria at times Monday through
  Thursday.

- There will be a chance for storms Saturday night into Sunday
  and again later Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 827 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The showers are diminishing quickly this evening as we lose the
diurnal heating and weak instability. Look for high clouds to
start spreading in overnight. This should help curb fog
development overall, but I would not be surprised to see some
develop toward east central and southeast WI due to the lake
influence.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This afternoon through Saturday:

Showers have popped as expected early this afternoon, with
widely scattered showers and storms continuing into late
afternoon, winding down by early evening as instability wanes.
Given the progression of the better forcing and current
satellite presentation, the best chance for showers/storms will
be mainly north of a line from Lone Rock to Janesville. Severe
weather is not anticipated, though lightning and brief heavy
downpours will be possible.

At least scattered cloud cover will hang around this evening
into tonight given the lingering broad cyclonic flow and
approaching low pressure from the southwest. Winds will be
light, with low temps a few degrees below normal once again.

The upper level flow is expected to become zonal on Friday,
with upper level ridging beginning to build in from the west on
Saturday. Dry weather is expected both days under surface high
pressure, as the approaching surface low tomorrow should stay
far enough south to keep precip south of the WI/IL border. Temps
will remain a bit below normal Friday, especially given
increasing mid to high level clouds from the low passing by to
the south. Temps should warm back to around normal Saturday as
the upper ridge builds in.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

Upper level ridging will continue to strengthen across the
Midwest and Northeast United States early next week, with
increasing temperatures likely for southern Wisconsin. Dewpoints
will increase as well, with a chance for Heat Advisory
conditions Monday through Thursday, especially if it remains
dry during the daytime periods. While showers and storms may
clip the area Sat night into Sunday, the forecast looks dry for
much of Monday and Tuesday with the ridge overhead.
Shower/storm chances then return later Tuesday through Thursday
as the upper level ridge shifts a tad to the southeast.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 827 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

At least scattered VFR cloud cover will hang around this
evening into tonight given the lingering broad cyclonic flow and
approaching low pressure from the southwest. However, some low
stratus or patchy fog is possible toward the lakeshore, but not
enough confidence to add it into the forecast at this time.
Winds will remain light through tonight, increasing a little
from the east on Friday.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 827 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

High pressure over Ontario and the western Great Lakes will
dominate Friday through Saturday with light north to northeast
winds likely. Sunday, low pressure deepens over the Central
Plains, bringing breezy southeasterly winds to the lake. Winds
then turn southerly and strengthen into Monday (not quite gales)
as low pressure exits into the Canadian Prairies. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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