NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 071213
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
613 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance (20-40%) for light snow this evening and overnight,
  mainly northeast of a line from the Wisconsin Dells to
  Kenosha. A narrow band of up to 0.5 inch of snow is possible.

- Milder temps with highs in the 30s and 40s are expected early
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 613 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Forecast remains on track through today, with mostly sunny skies
this morning yielding to mostly cloudy skies by this evening
ahead of the previously discussed shortwave. Expecting highs in
the upper teens to low 20s. Have bumped up PoPs a bit overnight,
as 00Z/06Z modeling has indicated increased potential for a ~850
mb frontogenesis band to develop somewhere in south-central to
southeastern Wisconsin. If this band manages to sit over a
single area for longer than a couple hours, it would be capable
of producing up to an inch of snow. Currently looks as though it
would remain progressive, so up to a half inch of snow is the
current forecast. However, will be monitoring trends through the
day as the band develops and shows its hand.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1211 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Today and Tonight:

Clear skies, light winds and cold temperatures will lead to a
quiet but chilly day. Sfc high pressure will be moving from
Manitoba through Wisconsin today. These quiet conditions will
persist through the day with clouds gradually increasing from
west to east ahead of an approaching mid/upper level shortwave.
This shortwave will swing through this evening into tonight
bringing another small chance (20-30%) for some light snow. The
best chances for this light snow will be along and east of a
line from roughly the Dells to Janesville. This will be a quick
hitting snow fall with light rates and totals around a dusting
to maybe a couple tenths of an inch. The light snow is expected
to end in the early morning hours Sunday.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1211 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

Sunday kicks off the dry conditions and warming temperatures through
at least mid week. Ridging will be building in aloft with a trough
pulling out to our east. At the sfc, a broad area of high pressure
gradually push east into the the New England and Mid Atlantic states
with low pressure systems to the west in the Plains. Between these
two systems, Wisconsin will get southwest to southeast winds. This
will bringing rising temps and dewpoints for a couple days

Tuesday looks to be the warmest of the week. At the sfc there looks
to be a warm front that will pass during the day Tuesday which will
provide a good push of WAA (looks to be a dry frontal passage).
Looking at the spread among models there is quiet a range of
temperatures. Looking at the box and whiskers plots for Euro, CAN,
and GFS ensembles shows the interquartile ranges solidly around 38
to 45 degrees which also tracks with the NBM. This is all well above
normal for this time of year so a warm day for sure (a taste of
spring for those looking). Looking at the maximum values does show
slim chances to be in the upper 40s to near 50s. Regardless of
the temps, far southern and southwestern Wisconsin will be the
warmest with temperatures decreasing as you head north and east.
If the warm front under preforms and were looking at highs in
the upper 30s to low 40s.

Guidance has finally come into some better focus for the Tuesday
night through Wednesday time frame. Slight discrepancies in
timing and location of the upper level trough still remain, but
the trough will swing through Ontario and Quebec and clip the
northern Great Lakes Region. There is another shortwave right on
the heels of this system and there looks to be a good jet
setting up over northern Wisconsin. The Euro is a bit quicker
and further north while the GFS is a bit further south. The sfc
low looks to track along the US/Canada border as it moves
east southeast. There will also be a second sfc low moving
northeast from the Southern Plains around this time. This puts
Wisconsin between the two systems and looks to starve us of
moisture. There are still a few models/ensembles that show good
chances for rain and a wintry mix, but POPs have come down to
around 10-20% or less through Wednesday. A lot can still change
here, so keep up to date with the forecast.

Slightly cooler temperatures in the 30s look to remain through
the end of the work week with high pressure and ridging starting
to build in as we hit the latter half of the week.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 613 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions with light and variable to calm winds throughout
today. This evening into tonight, light snow may develop from
MSN to JVL north and eastward. Best chances are in southeastern
Wisconsin, with local drops in visibility to MVFR within heavier
snow showers. A localized band of steady snow may develop
across south-central to southeastern Wisconsin late tonight, but
confidence in exact placement is uncertain. Within this band,
accumulations up to 0.5 inch are expected. A few spots may see
up to an inch. Snow will end by early Sunday morning, with
southeasterly winds developing.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1211 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Gusty northerly winds will gradually ease overnight into Saturday
while becoming northwest as high pressure of 30.5 inches builds
in from the northwest. Gale force gusts are expected to end around
or prior to midnight, but the breezy conditions will keep Heavy
Freezing Spray going into Saturday morning. Thus the Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning was extended.

As the high moves overhead Saturday winds will diminish becoming
light. Saturday night the high will move into the Ohio River
Valley turning winds to southerly. Winds will slightly increase
heading into Sunday morning behind the departing high. Light to
moderate southerly winds are expected through at least Monday
night as low pressure of 29.8 inches approaches from the west.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 AM Saturday.

&&

$$

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