NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 070924
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
324 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect into this morning
  for portions of southern Wisconsin. Accumulating snow will
  wind northwest to southeast early to mid-morning. Roads will
  be snow covered and slippery this morning.

- Additional rounds of snowfall will be possible again Monday
  night into Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday, though
  this second system may see rain mix in. Any rain that falls
  could initially cause slick spots on roads given cold road
  temperatures.

- Additional rounds of snowfall are then possible through the
  end of the work week, but confidence in timing is much lower.

- Below normal temperatures continue through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 324 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Today and Tonight:

Accumulating snowfall will wind down northwest to southeast
early to mid-morning, exiting the southeast between 6 and 8 am.
Snowfall rates will be highest early this morning east of a
line from Madison to Monroe, with rates generally decreasing
across the area towards daybreak. Expect snow covered roads this
morning.

Clouds will gradually decrease behind the exiting snowfall,
with a fair amount of sunshine expected through the day as high
pressure builds in. Despite the sunshine, high temps will
struggle into the upper teens to low 20s, well below normal for
early December. Breezy northerly winds will result in wind
chills of single digits above zero through the day.

Could see a dusting of snow for lakeshore areas tonight as
winds turn onshore, which may bring a little lake effect snow
inland. Amounts look low at this time, with up to a half an inch
possible. Clouds are generally expected to increase overnight
ahead of a weak shortwave. Temperatures may bottom out in the
evening, before holding steady or possibly gradually rising
overnight with the increased clouds and some weak warm air
advection aloft.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 324 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Monday through Saturday:

High pressure will bring dry and continued well below normal
temps to the area Monday. A quick moving shortwave may bring a
dusting of snow to southern Wisconsin Monday night as the high
pushes eastward.

A stronger low pressure system is expected to move through the
area later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Models continue to
suggest a more northern track with this system, which could lead
to a rain/snow mix, with the best chance for snow in the
southern forecast area. After a long stretch of below freezing
temperatures, rain could initially freeze on pavement,
particulary any untreated roads. This system bears watching, as
a shift farther north would result in mainly rain for southern
Wisconsin, but a shift south could bring a decent shot of
accumulating snowfall to at least the northern forecast area.

A colder airmass is then expected to quickly return to the area
behind the low Wednesday night into Thursday. A pair of
shortwaves late week will likely bring a return of snow chances
to southern Wisconsin. Still a fair amount of uncertainty with
the timing and strength of these systems.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 324 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Accumulating snowfall will wind down northwest to southeast
early to mid-morning, exiting the southeast between 12Z and 14Z.
Snowfall rates will be highest early this morning east of a line
from Madison to Monroe, with rates generally decreasing across
the area towards daybreak. The snow will remain on the drier
side, with snow to liquid ratios of 14-17 to 1. Low ceilings
and visibilities will persist with the accumulating snowfall,
with a return to VFR conditions as clouds clear with the exiting
snowfall. Could see a dusting of snow for lakeshore areas
tonight as winds turn onshore, which may bring a little lake
effect snow inland.

Winds will remain light this morning, but will pick up a bit
out of the north by the afternoon, before becoming light and
variable most places tonight under high pressure. Could see a
dusting of snow for lakeshore areas tonight as winds turn
onshore in the east, which may bring a little lake effect snow
inland.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 324 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Breezy northerly winds are expected today between weakening low
pressure passing by well to the south and high pressure around
30.5 inches building in from the west. Winds will become lighter
tonight under the high.

Winds will then shift to the south by Monday afternoon, as the
high heads eastward ahead of an approaching low. The low around
29.7 inches will track from Minnesota to Sault Ste. Marie Monday
night through Tuesday morning. A period of southerly gales up to
35 knots is looking more likely during this time, with gusts up to
40 knots possible over far northern Lake Michigan.

The next low around 29.1 inches will track across central
Wisconsin Tuesday night and reach southern Ontario by midday
Wednesday. Gales are possible for the south half of the lake
during this time.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068-
     WIZ069 until 6 AM Sunday.

     Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-
     WIZ072 until 8 AM Sunday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644...8 AM Sunday to 9 PM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM Sunday to 3 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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