NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 250426
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1126 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder conditions are expected Wednesday, with highs into the
  60s most places, possibly pushing 70 south and west of
  Madison.

- A cold front will drop through the area Thursday, resulting in
  cooler conditions arriving by afternoon along with a chance
  (30-50%) for rain showers in the afternoon. A few rumbles of
  thunder will be possible as well, mainly south of I-94.

- Cooler conditions will persist Friday, with warming
  temperatures then expected over the weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1126 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Tonight through Thursday:

Periods of mid and high level clouds will continue tonight into
Wednesday under persistent warm air advection aloft and as a
weak shortwave rolls through the area. South to southwest winds
will increase Wed morning into the afternoon, which will combine
with some filtered sunshine for above normal highs into the 60s
most places. The winds may stay more southerly between Port
Washington and Sheboygan, which would result in somewhat cooler
conditions near the lake in these areas. The mildest temps today
will likely be south and west of Madison where it may approach
70 given enough sunshine.

Light southerly winds will linger tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front, with at least scattered clouds also
expected. This will keep temps on the mild side overnight, with
lows only dropping to the mid 40s to around 50. The cold front
will then drop through the forecast area Thursday morning per
latest model guidance, reaching the WI/IL border by around noon.
Temps may have a couple hours to warm in the morning before the
front moves through, with the warmest highs towards the state
line farther ahead of the front. Temps are then expected to fall
through the afternoon behind the front under breezy northerly
winds. It still looks like there will be a chance for showers
with the front, but the chance for thunderstorms is decreasing
due to the faster frontal timing. Still not out of the question
for a few rumbles of thunder mainly south of I-94 as the
instability exits.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1126 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

Dry weather is expected Friday through the weekend as high
pressure moves through the region. Cooler conditions will linger
into Friday, with highs ranging from 40 to 45, a few degrees
below normal for late March. Southerly winds will then develop
over the weekend behind the departing high, resulting in
warming conditions. Above normal highs around 60 are expected by
Sunday.

A warm front will become established in the region Monday and
Tuesday ahead of an approaching low. There remains disagreement
among models with how far north the front will make it,
especially on Monday. By Tuesday, the bulk of guidance has the
front most if not all of the way through the forecast area. The
position of the front will greatly impact temperatures as well
as shower/storm chances during this period. Overall though, it's
looking generally milder and more active early next week, with
plenty of time left to work out the finer forecast details for
these days.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1126 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Areas of mid and high level clouds will persist through tonight
and into tomorrow, with some clearing possible mid to late
afternoon tomorrow. Winds will generally be light (5 kt or less)
out of the southeast through tonight, with increasing south to
southwest winds expected through the day tomorrow ahead of an
approaching trough. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots are likely during
the afternoon hours. Winds may stay a bit more southerly from
Port Washington to Sheboygan, which would result in somewhat
lighter winds due to the influence of the chilly lake.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1126 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Light east to southeast winds this evening will gradually pick
up and become more southerly later tonight into Wednesday
between high pressure of 30.5 inches over the Mid-Atlantic and
low pressure of 29.6 inches traveling from the Northern Plains
into Minnesota. Winds and waves will approach Small Craft
Advisory levels Wednesday afternoon, but currently look like
they will stay just under criteria.

A cold front will move southward across the lake Thursday
morning into the afternoon, with increasing northerly winds
expected behind the front. A period of gale force gusts is
possible Thursday evening into early Thursday night, mainly
across the southern half of the lake. There's increasing
confidence that a Small Craft Advisory will be needed for this
windier period, with the north-norhteast winds also building
high waves.

Breezy west to northwest winds are likely to develop later Friday
evening into Friday night in advance of high pressure of 30.7
inches approaching from the northwest. Winds may ease a bit by
later Saturday as the high moves overhead, with breezy southerly
winds then developing by Sunday behind the departing high and
ahead of an approaching low.


DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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