WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

Thanksgiving Week: 19-23 November 2012

This is Thanksgiving Break for the Fall 2012 offering of the DataStreme Earth Climate Systems course. This Weekly Climate News contains new information items and historical data, but the Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 11.

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving Week from the AMS DS ECS Central Staff and Ed Hopkins!

ITEMS OF INTEREST

A Long Polar Night -- After being above the horizon for only 38 minutes this past Sunday, the sun set at 1:31 PM Alaska Standard Time (18 November 2012) at Barrow, the northernmost city in Alaska, for the last time this year. The next time the sun will rise above the local horizon in Barrow will be at 1:11 PM AST on 22 January 2013. On that date, the sun will remain above the horizon for 44 minutes. While the sun will be below the horizon for the next 65 days, residents of this city will have roughly three hours of some diffuse sunlight each day that is equivalent to civil twilight, provided the cloud cover is not too thick. To check the sunrise and sunset times of Barrow or any location in the United States go to the US Naval Observatory's on-line, interactive service for the entire year.
Accessing the national climatographies -- NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has produced numerous climatographies that are quantitative descriptions of climate that include tables and charts portraying the characteristic values of selected climatic elements at a station or over an area. Some of these climatographies provide a variety of daily, monthly and annual normal climate data for agricultural, transportation and other interests. This week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth provides the links to selected climatographies from NCDC.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of October 2012 global temperatures -- Preliminary data analyzed by scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center indicated that the global combined land and ocean average surface temperature for the October 2012 was 0.63 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average (1901-2000) for the month. Therefore, last month's global combined temperature tied October 2008 for the fifth highest October temperature since global temperature records began in 1880. When considered separately, the monthly temperatures of the land surface for this recently concluded month resulted in the eighth highest October land surface temperature on record, while the October monthly average temperature over the global oceans tied October 2004 for the fourth highest September ocean temperature in 133 years.
Furthermore, when considering the combined land-ocean global temperature for the year to date, the temperature was the eight highest ten-month global temperature since 1880. [NOAA/NCDC State of the Climate] Another version of the global temperature anomaly map for October 2012 is available. [NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab]
During October, the sea ice over the Arctic Ocean doubled in size from the record September 2012 minimum, but the areal extent remained the second smallest for any October since satellite-derived ice records began in 1979. However, the sea ice around Antarctica was the third largest October ice extent on record.
October drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its October 2012 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately 34 percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of October, while three percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
"The Making of the Hottest Year on Record" video available -- A new video has been produced by NOAA entitled "The Making of the Hottest Year on Record: USA Temperature Update" that highlights the 16-month stretch of above average temperatures across the nation. The Chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), Deke Arndt, addresses the distinct possibility that 2012 may be come the warmest year in the United States since sufficiently detailed climate records began in 1895. [NOAA/NCDC News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

A global portrait of aerosols produced -- A high-resolution map of the global distribution of aerosols has been produced by NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). This visualization produced by the high-resolution model run at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center shows airborne dust from land surfaces, sea salt in storms over the oceans, smoke from fires and sulfate particles from volcanoes and fossil fuel combustion. [NASA GSFC]
In a separate study, scientists at the US Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have been studying how certain pollutants known as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) created from fossil fuel burning and forest fires from midlatitudes can reach the Arctic, even though these pollutants should have decayed long before reaching their destination. These scientists developed an ultra-sensitive instrument that analyzed individual particles to determine their size, composition and shape. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory News Center]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [ NOAAWatch]
Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes -- A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [ NCDC]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Pacific walrus population tracked to observe effect of Arctic sea ice loss -- Scientists from the US Geological Society and their Russian colleagues who have been tracking tagged walruses in the Chukchi Sea claim that the sparse summer sea ice in the Arctic during the last five years have caused behavioral changes in the Pacific walruses. [USGS Newsroom]

CLIMATE FORCING

Antarctic sea ice increases studied by NASA -- Scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the British Antarctic Survey recently reported that observed increases in Antarctic sea ice cover over the past two decades are directly attributed to marked changes to Antarctic sea ice drift caused by changing winds across the region. These conclusions were based upon maps of daily ice motion measurements created by JPL from 19 years of record obtained by four U.S. Defense Meteorological satellites. [NASA JPL]
Himalayan glaciers expected to shrink even if constant temperature -- A geology professor from Brigham Young University foresees that some of the glaciers in the Himalayas will continue to shrink over the next several decades even if the climate, as indicated by temperatures, would remain steady. Furthermore, the amount of melt water from these glaciers could decrease by approximately 30 percent. She based her forecast on her research work in the Bhutan region in Himalayas that experiences a monsoonal circulation regime, noting that the glacial retreat depends not only upon temperature, but also upon wind, atmospheric humidity, precipitation and evaporation. [Brigham Young University News]
?? A warmer climate could result in more frequent Indian monsoon failure -- Researchers at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Potsdam University claim that projected increased global temperatures could cause more frequent and severe failures of the Indian summer monsoon regime over the next two centuries. The Walker circulation in tropical latitudes of the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins could shift eastward, resulting in higher pressure over India during spring and failures of the monsoonal circulation over India associates with a 40 to 70 percent reduction in rainfall. [Institute of Physics]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Three-month seasonal weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released an update their Winter Outlook for meteorological winter (the three months of December 2012 through February 2013) across the nation. They indicate ENSO-neutral conditions would prevail through the winter of 2012-13, leading to a high degree of uncertainty in their outlook for some areas areas of the nation. In terms of their temperature outlook, the forecasters foresee a better than equal chance for above average winter temperatures across the Southwest, centered on the Four Corners region (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah). The region with anticipated above average temperatures would also extend into the southern Plains. On the other hand, sections of the the northern Plains and the upper Midwest along with most of the Florida Peninsula would have a good chance of experiencing below average temperatures. Their precipitation outlook calls for better than even chances that sections of lower Mississippi. lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys should have better than equal chances of above average winter precipitation. However, central and northern California along with adjacent areas of western Nevada and southern Oregon would experience dry conditions, especially across sections of southern Florida and much of Texas. A summary of the prognostic discussion of the outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC.
National seasonal drought outlook issued -- The forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also issued their US Seasonal Drought Outlook that will run through February 2013. This outlook indicates that drought conditions should either persist or develop across a large section of the nation, encompassing the southern and central Plains, the southern and central Rockies and the Intermountain West. Drought conditions were also expected to continue across sections of the Southeast. However, marginal to significant improvement in the drought conditions were anticipated over sections of the Midwest, the northern Plains, the northern Rockies and California. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

North American West Coast could have been in ancient hurricane belt --An international team of scientists from the United Kingdom, Canada, Denmark and the United States have determined from sediments and fossils that the portion of the continental plate representing the current western side of the North America continent was located along the equator during the Ordovician Period approximately 450 million years ago. This orientation would have meant that the hurricane belt would have been to the east. [Durham University ]
New dating of sea level records reveals more rapid response of global ice volume -- An international team of scientists have developed a new method for creating a high resolution and continuous record of sea-level variability over the last 500,000 years using dating the global sea level using Mediterranean data from radiometric (Uranium-series) dating of cave deposits. They used this dating method to obtain ice-volume estimates that were then compared with temperature reconstructions from independently dated ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica. Their conclusions were that a rapid response existed between global temperature and ice volume/sea-level, which could lead to sea-level changes by over one meter during the last glacial cycle (last 150,000 years). [University of Southampton News Release]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Martian rover provides new weather and radiation data from the Red Planet --The Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) and Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD)instruments on NASA's Curiosity rover have been collecting solar radiation, wind, pressure and temperature data from the Martian atmosphere for more than 12 weeks. These data have been transmitted to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory where scientists are analyzing these data to develop an improved understanding of the environment on the Martian surface. [NASA JPL]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

This Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 11.

Concept of the Week: Evolution of Climate Models

Climate scientists have been building increasingly sophisticated, mathematical climate models to serve two main purposes: test the sensitivity of the climate to altered conditions and simulate climate over time, either back into the past or forward into the future. The simplest, early type of climate model (zero dimensional) was the "energy balance model", which provides an average planetary temperature from incoming and outgoing radiation. A one-dimensional energy balance model determines the surface temperature from the energy balance at individual latitude belts.

More complex models involve the physical equations of motion (gas laws, thermodynamics and radiation interactions) subject to climate forcings, the boundary conditions of solar radiation, surface properties and atmospheric composition. As computers improved, models have included a three-dimensional oceanic circulation ("atmosphere-ocean coupling"), then interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere and geosphere, with climate feedback mechanisms involving the exchanges of heat and water. Finally, models have been able to incorporate the improved knowledge of the biogeochemical processes. Climate models calculate variables such as temperature at individual points within the three-dimensional grid of cells across the Earth's surface and vertically through the atmosphere, ocean, ice and land. A tradeoff exists between the number of grid points (the spatial resolution) and the number of numerical computations. Time and space accuracy costs increased computational time and expense.

The development of numerical weather prediction models during the 1960s and 1970s spurred the development of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate. One of the early atmospheric GCMs was developed at Princeton University's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). By the 1990s, comprehensive climate models were being perfected with three-dimensional oceanic circulation. Ultimately, the term GCM could be used to refer to a Global Climate Model that represents the major climate system components (atmosphere, ocean, land surface and polar ice) and their interactions. The Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research is one of the most comprehensive climate models currently available. This model has been used to determine the future temperature response for several scenarios concerning the release of greenhouse gases through the 21st century as proposed by the IPCC reports.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

General circulation models are generally [(less), (more)] sophisticated than energy balance models.
Increasing the spatial resolution of a global climate model causes the computational time to [(increase),(decrease),(remain the same)].

Historical Events:

19 November 1957...Nineteen inches of snow covered the ground at Cresco, IA, a record November snow depth for the state. (The Weather Channel)
19 November 1996...A 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the state of Oregon was established when 11.65 in. of rain fell at Port Orford. (NCDC)
19 November 2009...Adelaide, Australia reported a temperature reading of 109 degrees, which set an all-time record high for the month of November, Elliston had a 111-degree reading, which was its all-time record for any day. The month of November 2009 was the warmest November on record for Australia. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
20 November 1914...The high temperature of 28 degrees at Atlanta, GA was their earliest daily high below the freezing mark. (The Weather Channel)
20 November 1979...A blizzard struck Cheyenne, WY producing a record 19.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a record total of 25.6 inches in forty hours. Strong winds created huge drifts stopping all transportation. (19^th-21^st) (The Weather Channel)
23 November 1909...Rattlesnake Creek was deluged with 7.17 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state of Idaho. (The Weather Channel)
23 November 1943...Northern New Hampshire was in the grips of a record snowstorm that left a total of 55 inches at Berlin, 56 inches at Randolph and many other locations over 40 inches. The 56-inch total at Randolph in Coos County established a 24-hour snowfall record for the state. In Maine, Middle Dam received a record 35 inches of snow in 24 hours. (David Ludlum)
23 November 1974...Bismarck, ND was in the middle of a 5-day snowstorm during which 28.3 inches fell, the greatest on record. (Intellicast)
23 November 1983...A 24-hour snowfall record for Duluth, MN was broken with 16.9 inches. 19.7 inches fell during the entire storm, also a record.
23 November 1991...La Crosse, WI set a new record for 24-hour snowfall with 13 inches. This storm brought the monthly total to 28.2 inches, also a record. (Intellicast)
24 November 1950...The temperature at Chicago, IL dipped to 2 degrees below zero to equal their record for the month established on the 29^th in 1872. On the first of the month that year, Chicago established a record high for November with a reading of 81 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

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