WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS Week Twelve: 26-30 November 2012

ITEMS OF INTEREST

End of a season -- With the end of November on Friday, 30 November 2012, the autumn meteorological season in the Northern Hemisphere will end with the start of the meteorological winter season on Saturday (1 December). Recall that meteorologists have elected to use a standard three-month grouping to identify each meteorological season. Hence, September, October and November are considered the autumn or fall meteorological season, while the months of December, January and February are the winter season. You will note that the winter solstice, marking the day where the length of daylight is least in the Northern Hemisphere is still three weeks away, falling on Friday, 21 December 2012. Since the lowest temperatures typically fall in mid to late January, the meteorological winter tends to be centered on the coldest time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.
In addition, the end of November also marks the end of the official hurricane seasons in the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, along with the eastern and central North Pacific basins.
The 2012 hurricane seasons reviewed -- A quick review of this year's tropical cyclone statistics for official 2012 hurricane season has been made for both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]
Tropical cyclone climatologies of North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific -- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has an updated and revised edition of its "Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1851-2006." While a paper copy of this book is available for a cost from NHC, a 243-pg pdf file of this edition can be downloaded for free. NHC also released the first edition of "Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, 1949-2006." In addition to a paper copy is available for sale, a free 164-page pdf file is available. Both of these climatologies have numerous graphics that show long-term changes in tropical cyclone frequency in the two basins.
A climatology of tropical cyclones in the central North Pacific from the 1950s to 2008 is available from the CPHC climatology website maintained by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, HI.
Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

High-quality maps of December temperature and precipitation normals across US available -- The PRISM Climate Group at Oregon State University has prepared high-resolution maps depicting December's normal maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation totals across the 48 coterminous United States for the current 1981-2010 climate normals interval. These maps, with a 800-meter resolution, were produced using the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) climate mapping system.
Lower water levels on Great Lakes due to lack of rain and warming lakes -- Lake levels on North America's Great Lakes were well below the long-term averages during this past fall. Most noticeable were Lakes Michigan and Huron, where near-record low water levels were reported at the end of October. Scientists claim that the near-record low lake levels are due to a combination of short-term lack of summer rain and long-term warming of the lakes that have increased evaporation rates and reduced winter ice cover. [National Geographic] The National Weather Service Forecast Office for Milwaukee, WI recently posted a comparison of the record water levels of Lakes Michigan and Huron. [NWSFO Milwaukee/Sullivan]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP Satellite turns one year old -- During the last month, the nation's newest environmental satellite, the NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP Satellite, completed its first year of collecting and transmitting weather and climate data for planet Earth that could be used either to produce images or as input to numerical weather and climate models. Some of the information collected by the five state of the art onboard sensors includes data on storms, ozone and vegetation. Editor's note: This polar-orbiting satellite was named for the late Verner Suomi, a meteorology professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who was a pioneer in using satellites to monitor the Earth's weather and climate. NPP stands for National Polar-orbiting Partnership. EJH [NASA GSFC]
Monitoring in global sea level fluctuations from space -- Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of Colorado, Boulder recently reported that their analysis of nearly 20 years of global sea-level data collected by NASA and European orbiting satellites indicates a resumption of the long-term increase in global sea level of approximately 3.2 mm per year has occurred following a sharp 5-mm dip in 2010-11 due to a strong La Niña event. The satellites collecting data for the last two centuries include the NASA/German Aerospace Center's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) spacecraft, the NASA and European Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellites. [NASA JPL]
Solar prominence studied in STEREO -- Two images of a prominence and filaments on the Sun's surface were made from a "stereoscopic" view of the Sun by the instruments onboard NASA's twin Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft in October. These two images were taken from two different perspectives, as the image from the STEREO-A (ahead) spacecraft is slightly closer to the Sun and moving faster than Earth, while the image from the STEREO-B (behind) craft is slightly farther from the Sun. The prominence and filaments are part of the activity on the solar surface involving emission of plasma. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Comprehensive storm surge database and climatology developed -- Researchers at Louisiana State University, including the Louisiana State Climatologist, have produced SURGEDAT, the first comprehensive and documented surge database for the US Gulf Coast that identifies the location and height of peak storm surge for 195 surge events between 1880 and 2011. Most of these events were associated with tropical cyclones. This database was constructed from data collected from various federal agencies, academic publications and newspaper articles. SURGEDAT will be valuable to coastal stakeholders. Recently, the project has been expanded beyond the US Gulf Coast to include a global dataset and user-friendly map. [LSU Gold]
Indo-Pacific climate change explained -- Researchers at the University of University of Hawaii at Manoa report that they can explain changes in the climate over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean basin during the last 60 years through a subtle change in the sea-surface temperature that resulted in a weakening of the prevailing trade winds across the region and a shift in the rainfall to the east toward the central tropical Pacific. The results were based upon analysis of a reconstructed surface temperature data set across the Indian Ocean and the western and central Pacific Ocean in four widely used atmospheric models. [University of Hawaii News]
All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [ NOAAWatch]
Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes -- A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [ NCDC]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Northern hardwood forest ecosystem vulnerable to climate change -- A team of 21 scientists who have been studying fifty years of environmental data from a New Hampshire experimental forest warn that changing climate conditions are creating adverse environmental conditions in the nation's northern hardwood forests, involving a reduction in maple syrup production, a spread of wildlife diseases and tree pests that would affect moose populations and the timber resources. The forest in the White Mountains is the US Forest Service's Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, one of the National Science Foundation's Long-term Ecological Research Program (LTER) ecological network. [Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies]

CLIMATE FORCING

Unexpected discovery that microbe groups fight a potent greenhouse gas -- Researchers at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville and colleagues at other research institutions have found that enzymes in a group of microorganisms are capable of transforming nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas, into essentially harmless nitrogen. The microbes could be used to consume nitrous oxide (N₂O), a greenhouse gas that also destroys ozone, emitted into the atmosphere through natural processes along with human-related sources such as fossil fuel combustion, sewage treatment and agricultural practices. [University of Tennessee-Knoxville]

CLIMATE MODELING

Ocean currents help in predicting Arctic sea ice extent -- researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have developed a synthesis method for combining observations and numerical models to simulate the seasonal extent of Arctic sea ice and the underlying oceanic circulation pattern. The improved Arctic ice extent forecast is based upon discovery of the feedback between sea ice and ocean currents. [MIT Media Relations]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Storm surge defense alternatives offered -- In the wake of the recent massive coastal flooding in the New York City metropolitan area due to Hurricane Sandy, a landscape architecture professor at The City College of New York (CCNY) has offered several alternatives that could be employed to protect New York Harbor from storm surges and rising sea level. She believes that these alternatives would involve environmentally friendly "soft infrastructure" involving archipelagoes of artificial islands and reefs that would mitigate flood damage without diverting the harm elsewhere. [CCNY News]
Building a more resilient electric grid -- Utility managers and other officials from the electric power utilities are considering the vulnerability of the nation's electric power grid due to severe weather events, such as the recent Hurricane Sandy and the numerous tornado outbreaks in spring 2011. While one remedy to the problem is not feasible, several new technology avenues are being explored, such as smart meters and micro-grids, based upon lessons learned from the recent events. [Scientific American]
Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Martian dust storm monitored by orbiting spacecraft -- Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory released a mosaic of images of a recent Martian dust storm in the planet's Southern Hemisphere as obtained by the Mars Color Imager instrument onboard the agency's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. [NASA JPL]
Similarities in history of Earth and Mars found -- Scientists at Carnegie Institution for Science, NASA's Johnson Space Center and the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston report finding similar building blocks in the formation of water in the Martian interior with those on Earth. They reached these findings following analysis of the hydrogen isotopes in water from Martian meteorites. While the early building blocks on Mars and Earth appear similar, differences occurred in later evolution on the two planets. [Carnegie Institution for Science News]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Exposure to air pollution that would include a variety of gas species and particulate matter could result in health-related problems, especially those people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in climate could increase air pollutant exposure in several ways. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in heat waves are often stagnant, which reduce dispersion and create environmental conditions for photochemical reactions that increases ground-level ozone concentrations. Increased ozone has been shown to cause reduction in lung function. These heat waves associated with stagnant weather patterns would also increase fuel combustion for power generation needed for air conditioning. Changes in climate could also affect emissions of natural air pollutants and airborne allergens.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

While a range of negative health impacts would be possible from future climate change, adaptation would likely help protect the majority of the nation's population. This adaptation would entail maintenance of the public health and community infrastructure across the nation. Adequate water treatment systems would help curb waterborne diseases, while health care facilities and emergency shelters would help minimize the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

26 November 1896...Snow and high winds hit the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley, with a Thanksgiving Day blizzard across North Dakota. The storm was followed by a severe cold wave in the Upper Midwest. The temperature at Pokegama Dam plunged to 45 degrees below zero, which remains the lowest recorded November temperature in Minnesota. (David Ludlum)
29 November 1975...Red River was buried under 34 inches of snow in 24 hours, establishing a record for the state of New Mexico. (The Weather Channel)
29 November 1985...The temperature at Bismarck, ND plunged to 30 degrees below zero to establish their record low for the month of November. The high that day was 4 degrees below zero. (The Weather Channel)
29 November 1989...Sault Ste Marie, MI finished the month of November with a record 46.8 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
30 November 1976...MacLeod Harbor, AK reported a precipitation total for November of 70.99 inches, which established a state record for any month of the year. (The National Weather Summary)
30 November 1991...Minneapolis, MN ended the month with 46.9 inches of snow, the most ever for November and for any month. Although the official start of winter was still 3 weeks away, the city had already surpassed the normal seasonal snowfall record with 55.1 inches since 1 October (normal for the entire winter is 49.2 inches). (Intellicast)
1 December 1831...The coldest December of record in the northeastern U.S. commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington, VT the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum)
1 December 1913...A six day Front Range snowstorm began, ultimately producing 45.7 inches of snow at Denver, CO, the biggest single snowstorm on record for that city. It produced a record total of 46 inches at Denver, CO. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)

Return to DataStreme ECS website