WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

24-28 December 2012

DataStreme Earth's Climate Systems will return for Spring 2013 with new Investigations files starting during Preview Week, Monday, 14 January 2013. All the current online website products, including updated issues of Weekly Climate News, will continue to be available throughout the winter break period.

Happy Holidays to you and yours from the AMS DS Earth's Climate Systems Central Staff!

Ed Hopkins

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Dreaming of a White Christmas -- NOAA's National Climatic Data Center recently produced a national map showing the climatological probability (in percent) that a snow depth of at least one inch would be observed on the morning of 25 December based upon the new 1981-2010 standard 30-year climatological reference interval. This new map supersedes an older map that accompanied a "White Christmas?" report that used data collected from 340 first order stations during an earlier 1961-1990 standard 30-year climatological reference interval. Across the nation, some locations are almost certain to have a white Christmas. These places can be found along the Canadian border surrounding the Great Lakes, such as International Falls, MN and Marquette, MI (both with 100%) and in New England, such as at Caribou, ME (97%). Stations at higher elevations in the Rockies also have a higher probability, such as at Flagstaff, AZ with a 56%. Sites close to the oceans typically have a lower probability, as the oceans tend to be relatively warm at this time of year. Santa typically finds tough sledding on his journey to that half of the country south of latitude 40 degrees that is not mountainous, where chances of a white Christmas fall from 50% to 20% or less. You can monitor the current snow cover across North America using a snow chart that is based upon satellite data.
Climatology of Southeast NCAA bowl games updated -- The Southeast Regional Climate Center has provided a listing of the weather history for twelve NCAA college bowl games that are to be played within the next two weeks across the Southeastern States. This climatology includes the warmest, coldest, wettest and snowiest days in the particular bowl's history.
Watching snowflakes grow -- The American Chemical Society produced a holiday video that explains how snowflakes form and grow into distinctive six-sided shapes from their origins in bits of dust in clouds. [ACS Bytesize Science]
Extreme Weather events in US during 2012 -- Last week NOAA reported that 11 weather and climate extreme events occurred during 2012 produced at least $1 billion in losses. These events included seven severe weather/tornado outbreaks, two tropical cyclones involving hurricanes or tropical storms that made landfall in the United States and a year-long major drought with associated wildfires. In addition, these eleven events appear to have caused 349 deaths, with Sandy claiming 131 lives and the summer-long heat wave and associated drought causing over 123 direct deaths; an estimate of the excess mortality due to heat stress is remains unknown. NOAA estimates that the grand total in losses due to all weather events and climate episodes in 2012 should exceed last year's total, surpassing $60 billion. Most of the monetary losses would be from the persistent, widespread drought and from Super Storm Sandy. [NOAA NCDC News]
Review of Canada's top ten weather stories in 2012 -- During the last week, meteorologists with Environment Canada released a list of what they considered the top ten weather events across Canada during this calendar year of 2012. Some of these stories included the unseasonably warm weather that persisted throughout most of the year, the active Atlantic hurricane season, the major spring flooding in British Columbia and the ice melt in the Arctic sea ice. [Environment Canada]

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

A global review of November 2012 temperatures -- Preliminary analysis of temperature data by scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center indicates that the worldwide combined ocean and land surface temperature for November 2012 ranked as the fifth highest global November surface temperature since a sufficiently dense and reliable network began in 1880. They also found that both the global ocean surface temperature and the global land surface temperatures were both the sixth highest readings for any November on record. The scientists also noted that the ten warmest Novembers have occurred during the last 12 years, including this past month. Furthermore, they reported that the combined land and ocean surface temperature for the globe during the Northern Hemisphere autumn (September-November 2012) was the second highest for all boreal autumn seasons going back to 1880. However, when averaged over the first eleven months of 2012, the combined ocean and land surface temperature was the eighth highest January through November average in 133 years of record. ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during November 2012 and could extend through Northern Hemisphere winter and into spring, thereby affecting global ocean temperatures in the upcoming months. [NOAA/NCDC State of the Climate]
November drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its November 2012 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately 45 percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of November, while one percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Review of NOAA research activities around the globe in 2012 -- During the last week NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) provided a list of highlights of the scientific research the agency has conducted around the globe during the calendar year of 2012 in an effort to advance weather forecasting, climate prediction, environmental modeling, ocean exploration and coastal protection. Some of the OAR research activities during 2012 included improved techniques to model atmospheric radiation transport following the Japanese nuclear accident; airborne mercury studies; influence of climate patterns on the extreme tornado season across the nation in 2011; monitoring of Hurricane Sandy; monitoring of greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone; assessment of endangered marine species threatened by changing climate and ocean acidity; successful habitat reconstruction on the Great Lakes. [NOAA Research]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [ NOAAWatch]
Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes -- A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [ NCDC]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Climate change is shown to have major effects on ecosystems and species -- A technical report on biodiversity and ecosystems prepared by more than 60 federal, academic and other scientists, including the lead authors from the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Wildlife Federation and Arizona State University in Tempe will be used as scientific input for the 2013 Third National Climate Assessment. This report, entitled Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services, will show that plant and animal species are shifting their geographic ranges and the timing of their life cycles at faster rates than even a few years ago as a consequence of changing climate conditions. [USGS Newsroom]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

UK Met Office annual global temperature forecast indicates a warm 2013 -- Late last week scientists at the United Kingdom Meteorological Office issued a global temperature forecast for 2013 in which they foresee the coming year to be one of the ten warmest years since a sufficiently global temperature recording network was established in 1850. The forecasters used recent trends in three global climate data sets to arrive at their forecast of a global average temperature for 2013 that would be approximately 0.57 Celsius degrees above the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14.0 degrees C, with a range of uncertainty between 0.4 and 0.7 Celsius degrees above average. They feel that 2013 would be warmer than 2012, which according to their provisional figures would rank as the ninth warmest year on record. [NOTE: Three international global temperature datasets used by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): The Met Office and University of East Anglia (HadCRUT4); NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NOAA NCDC) and NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA GISS). EJH] [UK Met Office]
Three-month seasonal weather outlook released for the US -- Late last week, forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their three month outlook across the nation for January, February and March 2013, which includes the last two months of meteorological winter (the three months of December through February) in the Northern Hemisphere and the first month of meteorological spring. They feel that the current ENSO-neutral conditions should continue to affect the winter weather, where ENSO stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The atmospheric and oceanic circulation regime would tend to favor sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that would remain close to the long-term average values at least through May 2013. In their temperature outlook, the forecasters foresee a better than equal chance for above average winter and early spring temperatures across most of the southern half of the nation, primarily over the southern Plains and southern Rockies in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. On the other hand, they anticipate a better than even chance of below average temperatures for January through March across the northern high Plains of North Dakota and Montana, along with the adjacent northern Rockies. Elsewhere, equal chances of either below or above average temperature were anticipated, especially across the Northeast, the Midwest and the Northwest. .
The CPC three-month precipitation outlook calls for better than even chances for dry conditions across the southern tier of states, especially over New Mexico and adjacent sections of Arizona and Texas, along with the Florida Peninsula during the first three months of 2013. On the other hand, the northern Rockies and the adjacent northern Plains, along with sections of the Midwest, extending from across the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi Valleys were thought to have better than equal chances of above average January-March precipitation. A summary of the prognostic discussion of the outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC.
National seasonal drought outlook issued -- The forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also issued their US Seasonal Drought Outlook that will run through March 2013. This outlook indicates that drought conditions should either persist or develop across a large section of the nation, encompassing sections of the upper Midwest, most of the Plains, the southern and central Rockies and the Great Basin. However, marginal to significant improvement in the drought conditions were anticipated over sections of the Midwest, the Southeast and the West, including California and Oregon. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Warming of planet during instrumental period confirmed by independent evidence -- A team of researchers from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, the University of South Carolina, the University of Colorado and Switzerland's University of Bern has reconstructed a "proxy" temperature record for the last 130 years that has been compiled from several independent temperature-sensitive proxy indicators such as ice cores, old coral and sediment layers extracted from oceans and lakes. These researchers have found that this proxy temperature record drawn from 173 independent proxy datasets reveals a pattern of increased global temperatures between 1880 and 1995 that is comparable to the trend seen in the instrumental temperature record obtained from thermometers. They also claim that their findings resolve some of the uncertainty associated with thermometer records, including variations in instrumentation, shifts in station location and changes surrounding land use. [NOAA NCDC News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Home air conditioners seen to reduce premature heat-related deaths -- A team of researchers who examined US mortality records since 1900 claim that the introduction of home air conditioning since 1960 appears to have played a key role in reducing the American death rates, with the chances of a person dying on an extremely hot day with temperatures of at least 90 degrees falling by approximately 80 percent during the last half century. [Washington Post]
Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Lunar gravity mapping mission ends --NASA's Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission ended early last week when the two lunar orbiters, Ebb and Flow, were intentionally sent crashing into a mountain on the Moon's surface. NASA officials have named the site where the two orbiters crashed for Sally Ride, a former astronaut. A major accomplishment of the GRAIL mission was the creation of a high-resolution map of the Moon's gravitational field. The gravity-measuring technique used by GRAIL was essentially the same as that used by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) that has been mapping Earth's gravity since 2002. [NASA GRAIL]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Historical Events:

24 December 1872...Extreme cold gripped the Upper Midwest on Christmas Eve. Downtown Chicago reported an all-time record low of 23 degrees below zero, which stood until January 1982, and Minneapolis, MN reached 38 degrees below zero. The afternoon high at Minneapolis was 17 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)
24 December 1963...Memphis, TN set its all-time record low temperature with 13 degrees below zero, two days after a heavy 14.3-inch snowstorm. (Intellicast)
24 December 1982...The "Blizzard of 1982" hit eastern Colorado. Denver recorded 23.6 inches of snow in 24 hours, setting a new 24-hour record. Winds of 60 mph whipped the snow into 4 to 8 foot drifts. Stapleton Airport was closed for 33 hours and most roads were impassable. (Intellicast)
24 December 1983...The barometric pressure reached 31.42 inches at Miles City, MT to establish a high barometric pressure record for the U.S. It was the coldest Christmas Eve of modern record. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and all-time record lows for December were reported at seventeen cities, including Chicago with a low of 25 degrees below zero, and Havre, MT with a reading of 50 below zero. Sioux Falls, SD stayed below zero for eight consecutive days. Great Falls, MT dropped to a frigid 42 degrees below zero. Dayton, OH reached 13 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
24 December 1989... Christmas Eve 1989 became one of the coldest on record. Fifty-seven cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV with a reading of 22 degrees below zero. Key West, FL equaled their record for December with a morning low of 44 degrees. Huntsville, AL hit one degree above zero. The high of just 45 degrees at Miami, FL was an all-time record for that location after a morning low of 33 degrees. It smashed their previous record for the date by twenty degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
25 December 1988...A massive winter storm made for a very white Christmas in the western U.S. Las Vegas, NV reported snow on the ground for the first time of record. Periods of snow over a five-day period left several feet of new snow on the ground of ski areas in Colorado, with 68 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
25 December 1989...It was a record cold Christmas Day for parts of the southeastern U.S. Morning lows of zero degrees at Wilmington, NC and five degrees below zero at Jacksonville, NC established all-time records for those two locations. Miami Beach, FL equaled a December record established the previous morning with a low of 33 degrees. Erie, PA set an all-time snowfall record for the month as light snow brought the total to 60.3 inches. Tallahassee, FL had a trace of snow, the first ever for Christmas Day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
26 December 1909...Philadelphia, PA had its record snow to that date with 21 inches. The Delaware state record was also broken with 24 inches. (Intellicast)
26 December 1947...New York City recorded its all-time record snow with 25.8 inches at the Battery and 26.8 inches at Central Park. A record 26.4 inches of snow fell in 24 hours, with as much as 32 inches reported in the suburbs. White Plains had 6 inches in one hour with 19 inches in just 6 hours. The heavy snow brought traffic to a standstill, and snow removal cost eight million dollars. Thirty thousand persons were called upon to remove the 100 million tons of snow. The storm claimed 27 lives. (26^th-27^th) (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
26 December 1983...Miami, FL established a December record with a morning low of 33 degrees. Just three days earlier, and again three days later, record high temperatures were reported in Florida, with daytime highs in the 80s. (The National Weather Summary)
26 December 1993...Bitterly cold air prevailed across the north central states. Sault Ste Marie, MI plunged to 31 degrees below zero to set a new December record. Tower, MN reached a frigid 50 degrees below zero. (Intellicast)
26 December 2004...A massive earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter magnitude scale approximately 100 miles off the western coast of Sumatra created a tsunami that caused devastation in Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, The Maldives and many other areas around the rim of the Indian Ocean. The death toll is currently estimated at more than 300,000. Officials say the true toll may never be known, due to rapid burials. Indonesia was worst affected with as many as 219,000 people killed. (Wikipedia)
28 December 1897...The temperature at Dayville, OR hit 81 degrees to establish a state record for December. (The Weather Channel)
28 December 1955...Anchorage, AK was buried under 17.7 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. (28^th-29^th) (The Weather Channel)
28 December 1958...Albuquerque, NM received 14.2 inches of snow to establish a 24-hour record. (28^th-29^th) (The Weather Channel)
29 December 1917...Washta, IA dropped to 40 degrees below zero, the record low temperature for the Hawkeye State; this record has been broken by a 47 degree below zero reading in February 1996. (Intellicast)
29 December 1933...Ontario's coldest day on record as fourteen sites recorded their lowest-ever temperature, including Ottawa (-38?F) and Algonquin Park (-49?F). (The Weather Doctor)
29 December 1954...Fort Scott, KS was buried under 26 inches of snow in 24 hours to establish a state record. (28^th-29^th) (The Weather Channel)
29 December 1984...One hundred cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures. Southerly winds gusting to 50 mph helped Kansas City experience its warmest December day of record with a morning low of 60 degrees and an afternoon high of 71 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
29 December 2004...The sea-level corrected atmospheric pressure rose to an unofficial world's record for highest sea level pressure reaching 1083.8 millibars (32.01 inches) at Agata, Siberia. At the time, Agata Lake reported a temperature of -46^o C (-50.8^oF). (The Weather Doctor) This world record has superceded a reading of 1085.6 mb millibars (32.06 inches of mercury) at Tonsontsengel, Mongolia on 19 December 2001.
30 December 1880...The temperature at Charlotte, NC plunged to an all-time record low reading of 5 degrees below zero, a record that was equaled on 21 January 1985. (The Weather Channel)
30 December 1917...A great cold wave set many records in the northeastern U.S. Temperatures of 37 degrees below zero at Lewisburg, WV and 32 degrees below zero at Mountain City, TN set all-time low temperature records for both the Mountain and Volunteer States. (NCDC)
30 December 1933...The temperature fell to 50 degrees below zero at Bloomfield, VT, marking the lowest reading in modern records for New England. (David Ludlum)
30 December 1955...Anchorage, AK reported an all-time record snow depth of 47 inches. (30^th-1^st) (The Weather Channel)
30 December 1968...A new record low temperature for the state of Washington was set in two towns on the same date. Mazama and Winthrop both dropped to 48 degrees below zero. (Intellicast)
30 December 1972...The 86-foot high wave measured by the ship Weather Reporter was the world's highest measured wave. The wave was measured in the North Atlantic Ocean at 59 degrees North latitude and 19 degrees West longitude. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)

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