WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

PREVIEW WEEK: 22-26 August 2016

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2016 Campaign resumes -- The ninth in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2016 will commence on Thursday (25 August) and continue through Friday, 2 September. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Cygnus in the Northern Hemisphere and Sagittarius in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next series in the 2016 campaign is scheduled for 22 September - 1 October 2016. [GLOBE at Night]
Free admission into the National Parks -- This upcoming weekend (Thursday, 25 August 2016 through Sunday, 28 August) has been designated by the National Park Service as fee-free days in honor of its 100th Birthday. This fee waiver will cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks and monuments administered by the Park Service. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
Accessing and interpreting climate data -- If you would like to obtain a variety of climate data for your home town or state that are available from the National Weather Service, please read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth. This Supplemental not only identifies some of the sites to find the data, but also provides you with a brief explanation of the terminology used to identify the climate data.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Global temperature and ice cover for July 2016 reviewed -- Scientists at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data collected during the month of July 2016:

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2016 was the highest for any July since sufficiently detailed global climate records began in 1880. This record global temperature was nearly 62 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1.57 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) average. In addition to being the warmest July on record, this recently concluded month was the warmest of any of the 1639 months that constitute the record with an average temperature edging out the previous record monthly high temperature set in July 2015 by 0.11 Fahrenheit degrees. When considered separately, the average air temperature temperature over the world oceans for July 2016 was the highest for any July since 1880, while the temperature over land surfaces was also the highest July reading on record.

The researchers at the National Snow and Ice Data Center noted the areal extent of the Arctic sea ice for July 2016 was the third smallest for any July since satellite surveillance began in 1979. The extent of the Antarctic sea ice was the nineteenth smallest July ice extent in the 38-year record. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
A global map of Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for July 2016 is available from NCEI.

Hurricane season in eastern Pacific becoming more active -- A NOAA contract scientist wrote an article discussing how the eastern North Pacific basin experienced a slow start to its hurricane season, but since the start of July, ten named tropical cyclones (including tropical storms and hurricanes) have developed in the basin. The beginning of the 2016 eastern Pacific season was below-average, with Tropical Storm Agatha forming on 2 July, one of the latest starts since 1971 (the beginning of the satellite surveillance era). A record-tying number of ten named cyclones developed during the month of July. However, the recent activity has raised the 2016 hurricane season into an above-average one. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Space agency monitors the "new normal" for polar sea ice -- A sea ice scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center recently assessed the status of the areal extent of sea ice cover over the Arctic Ocean as the time when the typical occurrence of the summertime sea ice minimum approaches in late September. He contends that after relatively rapid spring ice loss through May, the rate of melt slowed in June, which could result in the extent of this year's Arctic sea ice not setting a new minimum record. However, he does note that low levels of sea ice are becoming the "new normal" as compared with even a decade ago. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Feature]

CLIMATE FORCING

Airborne survey made of methane emissions in Four Corners area of the Southwest -- A team of scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NOAA, Cal Tech and the University of Michigan recently conducted an extensive survey of the Four Corners area of the Southwest (where Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico meet) using airborne spectrometers to determine the magnitudes of the emissions of methane gas into the atmosphere in this region. Their study found that just ten percent of the individual methane sources are contributing half of the emissions. Some sources emitted as much as 11,000 pounds of methane per hour into the atmosphere. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Feature]
Thin mid-level tropical clouds may cool climate -- Researchers from Sweden's Stockholm University and Florida's University of Miami recently reported that thin "mid-level" clouds found at altitudes of approximately 5 km may be more pervasive across tropical latitudes than previously thought and they may have a considerable cooling effect on the climate. These conclusions were based upon analysis of observed data collected by satellites and by high-resolution numerical modeling. The researchers note that this cooling effect of mid-level clouds is currently missing in most global climate models. [Department of Meteorology Stockholm University News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

New Seasonal Climate Outlooks for fall issued -- Near the end of last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their new national Three-Month (Seasonal) Climate Outlooks new three-month seasonal national climate outlooks for September through November 2016, corresponding to the meteorological autumn season (in the Northern Hemisphere). Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, all of the 48 contiguous United States along with Alaska should have a better than even chance of experiencing above average temperatures for the upcoming three months of autumn. The regions with the best chances for warmer than normal conditions would be across the southern Rockies, the Gulf Coast including the Florida Peninsula, across the Northeast and nearly all of Alaska except for the interior.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for better than even chances of dry conditions for the autumn of 2016 across the the Southeast, centered upon the Tennessee Valley, and across sections of Great Basin in Nevada and the Sierras of California. A large section of the northern Plains and the northern Rockies centered on eastern Montana and western North Dakota were considered to have a good chance of a wet three-month span. The rest of the 48 contiguous states should have equal chances of below and above average autumnal precipitation.
  A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that the current ENSO-neutral conditions (meaning no significant El Niño or La Niña event were occurring) were expected to begin a transition into a weak La Niña that would continue through the early winter. A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-August through November 2016. Their outlook would call for persistence of drought conditions across the West (California, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona) and the Northeast (New York State, Pennsylvania and southern New England). A large area of the Southeast (the Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and the Carolinas) could see development of drought or continuation of current drought conditions. A few scattered areas across the Southwest and the nation's midsection could experience some improvement in drought conditions. Some of these areas, especially in sections of Arizona. New Mexico and Texas could have drought conditions removed. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence in their Drought Outlook.
First national water forecast model is launched -- Early last week, NOAA's National Weather Service launched and began running its "National Water Model," a new forecasting tool that is intended to simulate water flow through the nation's river ways in an effort to improve flood forecasting. This new hydrologic model, which was developed by NOAA scientists and colleagues at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other academic research institutions, is being run on NOAA's powerful new Cray XC40 supercomputer. Data from more 8000 USGS stream gages from the 48 contiguous United States along with Multi-Radar/Muti-Sensor System (MRMS) radar-gauge observed precipitation data serve as input information into the model that will simulate flow conditions for 2.7 million locations across the "lower 48 states" and generate hourly forecasts for the entire river network. Statistics for several additional water variables, such as soil moisture, runoff, stream velocity, and other parameters, will be generated for up to 30-day ensemble forecasts. [NOAA News]
Additional information on the "National Water Model," which is also known as the WRF-Hydro model (WRF stands for Weather Research and Forecasting), is available from the perspective of the designers at NCAR. [NCAR/UCAR AtmosNews]
Groundwater recharge in Upper Colorado River Basin projected to remain steady as climate changes -- A recently released study produced by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the US Bureau of Reclamation projected future groundwater recharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin (upstream of Lees Ferry, AZ) between 2016 and 2099 based upon recent historical recharge data for the 1950-2015 time period using a groundwater recharge model along with down-scaled climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections. Currently, more than half of the streamflow in the Upper Colorado Basin originates from groundwater that is water that percolates into the soil from rain and snow. Approximately 90 percent of the streamflow in the entire Colorado River Basin originates in the Upper Basin. Simulated future Upper Colorado groundwater recharge is generally expected to be greater than the historical average in most future decades as a consequence of projected increases in precipitation. These anticipated increases would offset potential reductions in recharge that would result from projected increased temperatures. These groundwater recharge projections are important to sustainably manage both groundwater and surface water supplies in the Colorado River basin into the future. [USGS News]
Changes in Pacific sea level used as a predictor of global temperature change -- Geoscientists at the University of Arizona and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory recently reported that the using the patterns of rise in the sea level of the Pacific Ocean can be used to estimate future global average surface temperatures. The researchers used observed sea level changes obtained from data collected since 1993 by the collection of NASA, NOAA and European satellites. They believe that sea surface height provide a more accurate reflection of the heat stored in the entire ocean water column than sea surface temperatures. [University of Arizona News]

CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH

Assessing baseball uniforms and summer heat -- Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Director of the University of Georgia's (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program, former AMS President and baseball fan, recently wrote an article in which he describes some of the "odd things" about major league baseball uniforms when viewed from a meteorologist's perspective. He discussed the use of baseball pants and the dark umpire uniforms even during the hottest time of the year. Dr. Shepherd also provided links to a study involving heat illness and death in sports as well as useful information on proper hydration, the exertional heat illness warning signs and recommended actions to be taken. [Forbes Science]
New information concerning health hazards of "vog" is available --The US Geological Survey (USGS) and interagency partners from the National Park Service, the state and county of Hawaii and the United Kingdom's Durham University have produced several new informational products concerning the health hazards of volcanic air pollution known in Hawaii as "vog" (a combination of "volcanic" and "smog") that describes a visible haze containing mostly sulfur dioxide gases and acid particles. In addition to a booklet and brochure, these new products include a web-based "Hawaii Interagency Vog Information Dashboard" that provides direct links to a wide range of vog resources, including current vog forecasts and air-quality information. [USGS News]
Cloth masks found to provide little protection against air pollution -- Environmental health scientists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst recently reported that they have found inexpensive cloth masks worn by people across Asia in an attempt to reduce their exposure to air pollution tend to vary in effectiveness and could give users in highly polluted areas a false sense of security. [University of Massachusetts Amherst News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Pondering the influence of climate change as Louisiana floods -- Adam Sobel, an atmospheric and climate dynamics professor at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory recently wrote a article in which he discusses the lack of formal attribution studies that are needed to determine if the current flooding of historic magnitude across southern Louisiana can be attributed to climate change. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News]
Additional information on this flooding is available. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Damage assessment of Louisiana flooding is underway -- At the start of last week the National Geodetic Survey was beginning to collect aerial damage assessment imagery across Louisiana in the wake of the historic flooding across the state. These images are being collected in those areas that have been identified by FEMA and the National Weather Service. [NOAA National Ocean Service News]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Venus may have been habitable in ancient past -- Scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) recently reported that their computer modeling simulations of Venus' ancient climate indicates that the planet may have a had a shallow liquid-water ocean along with habitable surface temperatures during as much as the first two billion years of its existence. These simulations were run using a model similar to the one used to predict future climates on Earth. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies News]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com].

Concept of the Week: Touring the AMS Climate Studies RealTime Climate Portal

Welcome to DataStreme Earth's Climate System (ECS)! The AMS Climate Studies RealTime Climate Portal is an integral component of the DataStreme ECS (Earth's Climate System) course. The website is intended to deliver a wealth of climate information that is both pertinent to the course as well as being a reference site for you as you study Earth's climate system. The webpage is arranged in several sections. On Monday of each week of the course, we will post the current Weekly Climate News that includes Climate in the News (a summary listing of recent events related to climate), Concept of the Week (an in-depth analysis of some topic related to climate in the Earth system), and Historical Events (a list of past events important in the understanding of climatology). When appropriate, Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth will be provided on some topic related to the principal theme of the week.

You will use the RealTime Climate Portal to access and download the "Current Climate Studies" that complement your Climate Studies Investigations Manual. These materials should also be available Monday morning. Click the appropriate links to download and print these electronic components of the investigations as well as your Chapter, Investigations and Current Climate Studies Response forms.

Beyond these course Learning Files, sections include Climate Information, Climate Variability, Climate Change, Societal Interactions and Climate Policy, and Extras. As the titles suggest, there are multiple uses for climate data and their interpretation. Here we explore some examples of the information provided in the various sections of the RealTime Climate Portal.

The Climate Information section includes access to weather data, the raw material of climate synthesis, from the United States and the world under the heading "Observations and Data." Under this heading, click on "U.S. and World Weather Data." This National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) page first directs you to "United States Weather" and provides channels to current weather data as well as radar graphics, weather maps, and aviation and marine weather. It then leads you to International Weather Conditions.

The second major subdivision of the RealTime Climate Portal encompasses Climate Variability. Climatic variability refers to the fluctuations and oscillations that may occur within the climate system at temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Select the link, "NOAA El Niño Page". The page that appears provides access to a wealth of background and information on El Niño and La Niña, including the animation showing sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific during recent months. To the left of the animation, click on "What's happening today?" The page of current tropical Pacific conditions that appears shows a small map to the right. Click on that map and again anywhere on the subsequent set of map panels to get an enlarged view of the latest conditions of SST and anomalies.

The third major section of the RealTime Climate Portal is termed Climate Change. Here we provide links to information and analyses that primarily focus on anthropogenic (human-made) change processes and results in the climate system. That prominently includes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's ("IPCC") latest classic report on atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and their effects. Also linked are modeling results ("Models") based on those studies.

The last major section of the RealTime Climate Portal is titled Societal Interactions and Climate Policy. This block contains information on the impacts of projected change on human societies around the world, beyond that listed in the IPCC report, and the international actions and debates regarding those issues. Select and click on "National Climate Assessment (NCA3) Highlights" in this section. This webpage introduces you to the latest comprehensive and authoritative report on climate change and its impacts in the United States, now and in the future. You will be directed to this report several times in this course.

Completing the RealTime Climate Portal is the Extras section of additional handy information for the course and individual study such as dictionaries of terms, maps and materials. Choose and examine one of the Climate Literacy links. This document has recently been developed and released by NOAA to provide an overview of general concepts and information the general public and especially students should be aware of regarding the climate and the climate debate.

Concept of the Week: Questions

The first Climate Information link, "NOAA's Climate.gov", shows the Global Climate Dashboard where several graphs display Earth's temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide level, spring snow cover, etc. with a time slider than can be set to display from [(1800)(1880)(1940)] to the latest data in 2016.
Under the Societal Interactions and Climate Policy section, click the "Global Resilience Toolkit" link. The Toolkit has been designed to aid in working through climate change issues by communities. As the first step to building resilience, one should [(Prioritize actions)(Explore climate threats)].

Historical Events:

22 August 1816...The growing season for corn was cut short as damaging frosts were reported from North Carolina to interior New England in the "Year-without-a-Summer". (David Ludlum)
22 August 1976...The temperature soared to record high for Newfoundland: with a 98.1-degree reading at Botwood. (The Weather Doctor)
24 August 1906...The maximum 40-minute rainfall record for the U.S. was set with 9.25 inches at Guinea, VA. (National Weather Service files)
24 August 1992...Hurricane Andrew slammed into south Florida, devastating the community of Homestead with 181-mph winds. With a central pressure at landfall of 922 millibars (27.22 inches of mercury), which at the time was the third lowest ever recorded in a hurricane at landfall in the United States. Camille (1969) and the Labor Day Hurricane (1935) were more intense. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina became the third most intense land-falling hurricane with a 920-millibar pressure reading (or 27.17 in Hg) when it reached the Louisiana Gulf Coast. (The Weather Doctor)
25 August 1910...The temperature at Bowen, MT dropped to 5 degrees, the lowest ever for the 48 states in August. (Intellicast)
25 August 1940...New Jersey experienced its coldest August morning of record, with lows of 32 degrees at Layton and Charlotteburg. (The Weather Channel)
25 August 1987...A new record for monthly rainfall was set at Chicago when a storm brought the total to 15.73 inches erasing the previous record for any month, which had been 14.17 inches in September, 1961 (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
26 August 1883...Krakatoa Volcano exploded in the East Indies. The explosion was heard more than 2500 miles away, and every barograph around the world recorded the passage of the air wave, up to seven times. Giant waves, 125 feet high and traveling 300 mph, devastated everything in their path, hurling ashore coral blocks weighing up to 900 tons, and killing more than 36,000 persons. Volcanic ash sent into the stratosphere was carried around the globe in thirteen days producing blue and green suns in the tropics, and then vivid red sunsets in higher latitudes. The temperature of the earth was lowered one degree for the next two years, finally recovering to normal by 1888. (David Ludlum)
26 August 1935...San Francisco, CA had their heaviest 24-hour rainfall for August when 0.25 inches fell. (Intellicast)
26 August 1989...Anchorage, AK was soaked with a steady rain, and the 24-hour total of 4.12 inches smashed their previous 24-hour precipitation total of 2.10 inches. It also pushed their rainfall total for the month past their previous record for August. (The National Weather Summary)
27 August 1948...Buffalo, NY hit its all-time maximum temperature of 99 degrees. (Intellicast)
27 August 1970...Elko, NV was deluged with 3.66 inches of rain in just one hour, establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)
27 August 1973...The largest documented Canadian hailstone fell at Cedoux, Saskatchewan. The stone weighed 0.55 pounds and measured 4.5 inches across. (The Weather Doctor)
27 August 1986...A mix of snow, ice pellets and rain fell on Sault Ste. Marie, MI during the evening, the first time snow was observed in August since records started in 1888. (Intellicast)
27 August 1995...Remains of Tropical Storm Jerry unloaded 12.32 inches of rain in 24 hours in Greer, SC, a record for 24 hours, for a rain event and for August. At Antreville, 17.00 inches fell in 24 hours, setting a 24-hour rainfall record for the Palmetto State. (Intellicast)
28 August 1911...Saint George, GA was deluged with 18.00 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record that was subsequently broken by the current record of 21.10 inches in July 1994. (The Weather Channel)
28-29 August 1962...Hackberry, LA was deluged with 22 inches of rain in 24 hours, establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)

Return to RealTime Climate Portal