New Seasonal Climate Outlooks for the remainder of 2016 issued -- Near the end of last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their new national Three-Month (Seasonal) Climate Outlooks for October through December 2016, corresponding to the last two months of the meteorological autumn season (in the Northern Hemisphere) and the first month of meteorological winter. Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, most areas across the contiguous United States should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for the three upcoming months. The greatest probability of such an occurrence should be found across the Southwest, extending northward from the Mexican border to the 4 Corners area (where Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico meet). New England was also expected to have a good chance of above average temperatures. The outlook indicates that the Southeast would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
The CPC precipitation outlook calls for a better than even chance for below average precipitation during the next three months across the Gulf Coast States running from the upper Texas Gulf Coast to the Southeastern Atlantic Coast. On the other hand, the northern Rockies and adjacent high Plains in Montana would have the best chances of above average precipitation through the end of the year. The remainder of the contiguous states were given essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for October through December 2016.
A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that assuming that ENSO-neutral conditions would persist through the remainder of 2016, with neither an El Niño or La Niña event anticipated.
A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook released -- The
forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US
Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-September through December 2016. Their outlook would call for persistence of extensive drought conditions across California, southern Arizona, western Nevada and interior sections of Oregon. A few scattered areas of the West, such as in Utah, Idaho and South Dakota could see continued drought. In the East, drought conditions were expected to continue across sections of New England, Upstate New York, New Jersey and central Pennsylvania. Drought was also expected to continue across sections of the Southeast, where expansion of the drought could affect areas from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the southern and central Appalachians. A few sections of the Plains and northern Rockies could see some improvement in drought conditions during the rest of the year, including some areas that could removed from drought listings. The remainder of the nation does not appear to be headed for drought conditions. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.
CLIMATE AND THE
BIOSPHERE
- Warmer Midwestern lake waters from changing climate could impact sport fish communities -- A study of the populations of walleye and largemouth bass in more than 2100 Wisconsin lakes made by a US Geological Survey (USGS) research hydrologist and a former Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources research scientist reports that the walleye populations have been declining over the last 30 years in lakes across Wisconsin, while largemouth bass populations have been increasing. The researchers based their conclusions on the results of a computer model that estimated daily water temperatures from 1979-2014 for thousands of lakes using information on lake size, depth, water clarity, and historical weather. They also noted that the downward trend in walleye populations is likely to continue as projected climate change would cause lakes to warm over time. [USGS News]
CLIMATE
AND SOCIETY
- Twenty nations expected to join Paris Pact on climate this week -- United Nations (UN) officials recently reported that at least 20 countries additional have indicated they will join the Paris climate change agreement made last December at a United Nations event this coming Wednesday, 21 September 2016. These 20 countries would be in addition to the 27 nations that have already committed to the Paris Agreement on climate change, which would raise hopes that the deal will enter into force by the end of 2016, as ratification is needed by at least 55 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. [Climate Central News]
COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY
- Some Martian lakes formed later than originally thought -- Using data primarily from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, researchers from the Smithsonian Institution's National Air and Space Museum, the University of Virginia, Charlottesville and NASA Ames Research Center claim that some lakes and snowmelt-fed streams containing liquid water formed on the surface of Mars nearly one billion years later than a well-documented, earlier era of wet conditions on the ancient Red Planet. The researchers conclude that the more recent fairly wet period on Mars likely occurred between two and three billion years ago, at a time when most of Mars' original atmosphere was thought to have been lost and most of the remaining water on the planet had frozen. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory News]
- Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]
Concept of the Week: Climate and
Architecture
Humans have been constructing houses and other buildings for
thousands of years not only to protect themselves from the weather and
other environmental factors, but also to create a comfortable indoor
environment that would exhibit energy efficiency, especially in harsh
climates. For centuries, natural or primitive housing reflected an
adaptation to the climate of the locale and the availability of local
building materials.
In order to maintain a tolerable level of comfort within a
building, attention must be paid to thermal effects, ventilation,
illumination and atmospheric humidity.
The indoor thermal state ultimately depends upon the
building's energy budget involving incoming and outgoing radiation,
latent and sensible heat loss and by interior heat sources or sinks.
The indoor thermal level is mainly associated with the external energy
load on the building. The external energy load on the building depends
upon the latitude of the building, season of the year and time of day.
In tropical latitudes and during midday hours in summer, the
sun's path across the local sky increases the solar radiation incident
upon the roof and walls of the building. In polar latitudes, or during
the winter or the amount of available sunlight is significantly lower,
with the loss of infrared radiation causing a net cooling from the
building. Changes in the color of the roof and the outer walls can
affect the amount of incoming sunlight absorbed. Building orientation
and the effective use of overhangs can also affect the amount of
sunlight absorbed. Furthermore, the amount of insulation, often related
to the thickness of the walls, reduces the conduction of heat into or
out of the building. Thick adobe walls have been used effectively in
the Southwest to moderate indoor temperature. These walls reduce the
heat flow into the building during the daytime and in summer and out
from the building at night or during winter.
The size and placement of windows also affects the energy
balance. Large windows on the side of the building facing the sun's
path tend to permit large amounts of sunlight to penetrate into the
building. However, large windows on the side facing away from the sun
can cause for heat loss due to conduction, as many types of windowpanes
are not energy efficient.
Effective landscaping can reduce energy demands upon a
dwelling: Deciduous trees planted on the south and west sides of the
home provide cooling shade during the summer, keeping sunlight from
entering the windows. These trees will lose their foliage in fall and
allow the sun to shine through in winter, and warm south facing rooms.
Evergreen trees or dense shrubbery on the north side can serve as a
windbreak, which reduce the cold northerly winds from striking the
house in winter.
Energy losses from buildings during the upcoming winter in
northern latitudes can be seen readily by how quickly snow melts from
roofs and by how big the icicles form. Heat losses from buildings occur
with larger negative energy budgets, which are reflected also in higher
heating bills during the winter season. However, the heating bills also
depend upon the severity of the winter season that can be ascertained
from the number of accumulated heating degree-day units. Check this
week's DataStreme ECS Supplemental Information...In
Greater Depth for how you can monitor the number of heating
degree-day units to date in your state for this coming heating season.
Concept of the Week: Questions
Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form
provided in the Study Guide.
- The thicker the outdoor walls, the [(greater),(less)] the heat flow into or out of a building.
- Planting [(evergreen),(deciduous)] vegetation on the south side of a home in New England
will help reduce winter heating and summer cooling bills.
Historical Events:
- 19 September 2004...The single-day rainfall record at
Vancouver (British Columbia) International Airport was set 3.59 inches.
The accumulation came in a month when rainfall is exceptional across
the region. By mid-month, dozens of stations in British Columbia broke
all-time September rainfall totals. (The Weather Doctor)
- 20-23 September 1942...A rainstorm deluged the Maritime
Provinces. Four-day totals included 13.99 inches at Stellarton, Nova
Scotia and 10.83 inches at Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island.
Halifax, Nova Scotia recorded 9.40 inches of rain on the 21 September
climatological day. (The Weather Doctor)
- 20 September 1967...Hurricane Beulah moved into South
Texas, spawning a record 115 tornadoes for a hurricane. (David Ludlum)
(Intellicast)
- 20 September 1973...Britain's greatest September daily
rainfall floods Kent with 7.51 inches of rain. (The Weather Doctor)
- 22 September 1913...Des Moines, IA experienced their
earliest freeze of record. (The Weather Channel)
- 22 September 1934...Edmonton, Alberta reported its greatest
September snowstorm to date with 8.7 inches of snow. (The Weather
Doctor).
- 23 September 1904...The temperature at Charlotteburg, NJ
dipped to 23 degrees, the lowest reading of record for so early in the
autumn for the state. (The Weather Channel)
- 24 September 1888...The earliest frost of record hit the
southern states covering South Carolina, Georgia and northern Florida
(Intellicast)
- 24 September 1926...The temperature at Riverside Ranger
Station in Yellowstone Park dipped to nine degrees below zero, the
lowest reading of record in the U.S. during September. (This record was
broken by a 15 degree below zero reading at Big Piney, WY in September
1983.) Severe freezes were widespread over the northwestern U.S.
causing great crop destruction. In Washington State, Spokane County
experienced their earliest snow of record. Harney Branch Experiment
Station in Oregon reported a temperature of 2 degrees above zero to
establish a state record for the month of September. (David Ludlum)
(The Weather Channel)
- 24-26 September 1950...A smoke pall from western Canada
forest fires covered much of the eastern U.S. Daylight was reduced to
nighttime darkness in parts of the Northeast. The color of the sun
varied from pink to purple, blue, or lavender. Yellow to gray-tan was
common. (24th-30th) On the 26th, residents of the northeastern U.S.
observed a blue sun and a blue moon from the smoke. (David Ludlum) (The
Weather Channel)
- 25 September 1939...A West Coast hurricane moved onshore
south of Los Angeles bringing unprecedented rains along the southern
coast of California. Nearly five and a half inches of rain drenched Los
Angeles during a 24-hr period. The hurricane caused $2 million in
damage, mostly to structures along the coast and to crops, and claimed
45 lives at sea. "El Cordonazo" produced 5.66 in. of rain at Los
Angeles and 11.6 in. of rain at Mount Wilson, both records for the
month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
Return to RealTime Climate Portal
Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@aos.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2016, The American Meteorological Society.