WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK FOUR: 19-23 September 2016

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2016 Campaign resumes -- The tenth in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2016 will commence on Thursday (22 September) and continue through Saturday, 1 October. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Cygnus in the Northern Hemisphere and Grus in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next series in the 2016 campaign is scheduled for 21-31 October 2016. [GLOBE at Night]
• The Autumnal Equinox --The Autumnal Equinox will occur early this coming Thursday morning (officially at 1421Z on 22 September 2016 or 10:21 AM EDT or 9:21 AM CDT, etc.). At that time the noontime sun will appear directly above the equator, representing one of the two times during the year for such an occurrence, with the other being at the vernal equinox in March. The term "equinox" arises from the fact that this time of year represents "equal night" and equal day essentially everywhere. Within the subsequent several days, the length of daylight will become noticeably shorter. This decrease in daylight will continue for another three months to the winter solstice during the morning of Wednesday, 21 December 2016.
  Editor's note: John White, a meteorologist from North Carolina involved with the AMS Education program, reported that the geosynchronous (or geostationary) satellites make an "satellite eclipse" of the sun near the spring and autumnal equinoxes because of their equatorial orbit, such that these satellites pass through the earth's shadow and the satellite is powered down when the solar array does not receive sufficient sunlight. [For more information, consult NWS Southern Region GOES Satellite FAQ] EJH.
  If you checked the sunrise and sunset times in your local newspaper or from the climate page at your local National Weather Service Office, you would probably find that not until the midpoint of this coming week will the length of time when the Sun is above the local horizon would be precisely 12 hours at most locations. However; the length of night will exceed that of the length of daylight by the end of the week. The effects of atmospheric refraction (bending of light rays by the varying density of the atmosphere) along with a relatively large diameter of the sun contribute to several additional minutes that the Sun appears above the horizon at sunrise and sunset.
• September is National Preparedness Month -- The month of September has been declared National Preparedness Month (NPM), which is aims to educate and empower Americans to prepare for and respond to all types of emergencies, including natural disasters. NPM is sponsored by the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA), which has provided a toolkit of marketing materials to help promote the month, is the lead on this campaign that was originally launched in 2004. The theme for 2016 NPM is "Don't Wait. Communicate. Make Your Emergency Plan Today," with an emphasis on preparedness for youth, older adults, and people with disabilities and others with access and functional needs.
  During Week 4 (18-24 September), the weekly hazard-focused theme is "Individual Preparedness" [FEMA's Ready.gov]
  NOAA's National Weather Service is working with FEMA to communicate the importance of emergency preparedness as a key component of its Weather-Ready Nation campaign. [NOAA Weather Ready Nation]
• Free admission into the National Parks -- Next Saturday, 24 September 2016 has been designated by the National Park Service as fee-free day in honor of National Public Lands Day, which is celebrated annually at public lands across the nation on a Saturday in late September. This fee waiver will cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks and monuments administered by the Park Service. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
  The theme of the 23rd annual National Public Lands Day 2016 is "Helping Hands for American Lands." [National Environmental Education Foundation]
  
• Fall coloration -- By mid-September, deciduous trees begin to turn color across the nation, starting first across the higher elevations of New England and the Rocky Mountains, followed quickly across sections of the upper Midwest. During autumn, the peak in fall color progresses southward and toward lower elevations. Some locales hold events in an effort to welcome tourists who come as "leaf peepers." The Department of Agriculture's U.S. Forest Service maintains a Fall Colors Web page containing fall foliage status updates for National Forests across the continental United States. Additional information is also available through the tourism bureaus of the various states; links to some of these state sites are available from this Forest Service web page.
  [Editor's Note: An interesting explanation of fall coloration can be found in The Chemistry of Autumn Colors  from "Science is Fun in the Lab of Shakhashiri" from a popular chemistry educator at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. EJH]
• Undergraduate scholars present summer research experiences at NOAA -- During this past week, 163 scholars from more than 85 universities around the United States that had participated in this summer's Ernest F. Hollings Undergraduate and Educational Partnership Program with Minority Serving Institutions Undergraduate Scholars presented their research to scientists and peers at the annual Science & Education Symposium at NOAA Headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland.[NOAA News]
• Monitoring degree-day units -- If you would like to monitor how this upcoming winter will affect the amount of energy that you will need for heating your home, please read this week's Supplemental Information…In Greater Depth. You will see how heating degree-day units are computed, as well as the corresponding cooling-degree day units. This supplemental also provides links to tabulations of the cumulative heating and cooling degree-day units that are available on a monthly basis for selected cities across the country.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• US national weather and climate reviewed for August and Summer 2016 -- Based upon preliminary data, scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) report that August 2016 was the 17th warmest August across the coterminous United States since sufficiently reliable climate records began in 1895, with a nationwide monthly average of 73.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This temperature was 1.5 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century (1901-2000) average. Essentially all the states to the east of the Mississippi River and along the West Coast reported statewide August temperatures that were above to much above average. Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts experienced record high average August temperatures. Similarly, temperatures for five of the New England States ranked in the top 10. A dozen other states across the East also had August temperatures that were in the top 10 on record. California experienced its eighth warmest August in 122 years. On the other hand, near average August statewide temperatures were found across the Plains and the Rockies, with Colorado and New Mexico recording below average temperatures.
  The recently concluded meteorological summer of 2016 (June, July and August) tied 2006 for the fifth warmest summer since 1895, with a three-month average temperature of 73.5 degrees, which was 2.1 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average. All of the 48 contiguous states experienced above to much above average summer temperatures. California, Connecticut and Rhode Island reported their warmest summer since 1895, while the statewide temperatures in North Carolina, South Carolina, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Ohio were the second highest on record. Sixteen other states across the East and the Southwest had summer temperatures that were within the top ten on record for their respective states. Alaska also reported its second warmest summer in its 92-year period of record with a statewide average summer temperature that was 3.0 Fahrenheit degrees above average. The average maximum (daytime) temperature across the "Lower 48 States" for summer 2016 was tenth highest on record, while the average minimum (nighttime) temperature was the highest on record. Ohio had a record high summer minimum temperature.
  The nationwide August 2016 average precipitation was 3.47 inches, which made the month the second wettest August in 122 years. States across the nation's midsection had above to much above average statewide precipitation totals. August 2016 was the wettest August on record, while only August 1977 was wetter. Conversely, Idaho in the West and New Jersey in the East had monthly statewide precipitation totals that ranked eighth for their respective states.
  The nationwide summer (JJA) precipitation was 8.92 inches above the 1901-2000 average, which tied the summer of 1923 as the 24th wettest summer since 1895. States across the nation's midsection reported above average precipitation, with eight states in the Mississippi Valley having statewide average precipitation totals that ranked in the top 10 on record. Conversely, states across the West and along the Atlantic Seaboard registered below to much below average summer precipitation. Wyoming and Idaho in the West, along with Massachusetts, Rhode Island, South Carolina and Georgia in the East reported statewide summer precipitation totals that ranked in the eleven lowest on record. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
• Focus on summer dewpoint temperatures -- The summer 2016 dewpoint temperatures that were observed at several hundred airport weather stations across the contiguous US were analyzed by NCEI. A map of the average summer dewpoint departures from the 1981-2010 averages was constructed that indicated more humid conditions across the nation's mid-section associated with above average precipitation, while below average dewpoint temperatures were found across the West as the air was relatively dry and precipitation low. Near average dewpoints were found across several scattered areas in the East, where below average precipitation was reported. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate Supplemental]
• Summer 100-degree temperatures across the nation -- The National Centers for Environmental Information has produced a plotted map of the locations of stations where 100 degrees or higher temperatures have occurred across the contiguous United States for 2016 meteorological summer. These plots indicate that the summer of 2016 ranked fourth in the number of summer 100-degree days since 2011. During this summer, 1671 stations reported at least one 100-degree day, which is less than the 3892 stations with 100-degree days in the summer of 2012. Furthermore, approximately 58 million people across the nation experienced 10 or more 100-degree days in 2016, which lagged the 94 million who sweltered in 10 or more of these days in 2012. [NOAA/NCEI National Overview]
• August national drought report -- The National Centers for Environmental Information posted its August 2016 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately seven percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of August, while 18 percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
• Satellites detect flooding on India's Ganges River from summer monsoon rains -- A true color image obtained from the MODIS sensor onboard NASA's Terra satellite near the end of August shows widespread flooding on the Ganges River and its tributaries in East India. Another image generated from the MODIS sensors on both the Terra and Aqua satellites shows the extent of the flooding over a two-week span through the beginning of September along with that from previous floods. Torrential rains from the southwest monsoon were responsible for the flooding of the Ganges and the deaths of hundreds of people in East India, along with the evacuation of hundreds of thousands. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• Sea ice on Arctic Ocean reaches its smallest seasonal extent -- During the last week scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and National Snow and Ice Data Center announced that the sea ice cover on the Arctic Ocean appeared to have shrunk to its smallest annual extent on 10 September 2016. Based on preliminary analysis of data collected by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR-2) sensor on Japan's Global Change Observation Mission 1st–Water ("Shizuku") satellite, the sea ice coverage on that date was determined to be only 1.6 million square miles, which would represent an area that would tie 2007 as the second smallest seasonal extent since satellite-based observations began in 1978. The lowest measured Arctic sea ice extent remains on 17 September 2012, when 1.31 million square miles of ice covered the Arctic Ocean. [NASA Earth Observatory] or
  [National Snow & Ice Data Center News]
• Monitoring "trickle-down" effects of drought using satellite data -- A feature article produced by NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) describes how data collected by the nation's fleet of satellites, including the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) constellation, are used by the US Department of Agriculture and NOAA in providing weather and climatic data and maps to the agricultural community depicting such conditions as vegetation health indices, drought severity, precipitation totals, soil moisture and snow depth. [NOAA NESDIS News Archive]
• Assessing drought conditions across New England using an evaporative stress index -- An image was recently produced that shows the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) across the northeastern quadrant of the nation over the three summer months (June-August) of 2016. The ESI dataset for this map was produced from data based on observations of land surface temperatures from NOAA's GOES satellites and on observations of the leaf area index, an indicator of the canopy of an ecosystem, from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites. This map image of ESI shows that much of New England along with neighboring New York and New Jersey endured great evaporative stress over the past three months. According to a developer of the ESI from the University of Maryland, the ESI appears to provide an independent assessment of drought that is not based on precipitation. [NASA Earth Observatory]

• High resolution climate model focuses upon atmospheric rivers -- Two scientists at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) used the high-resolution version of the NCAR-based Community Climate System Model 4.0 (CCSM4) to accurately simulate the ribbons of humid air called "atmospheric rivers" that transport large quantities of water vapor over large distances from tropical latitudes to midlatitudes. Their work also allowed them to investigate how these atmospheric rivers, such as the "Pineapple Express" over the Pacific Ocean, could change as the global climate would warm. [NASA AtmosNews]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• New Seasonal Climate Outlooks for the remainder of 2016 issued -- Near the end of last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their new national Three-Month (Seasonal) Climate Outlooks for October through December 2016, corresponding to the last two months of the meteorological autumn season (in the Northern Hemisphere) and the first month of meteorological winter. Specific details of their outlooks include:
  • Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, most areas across the contiguous United States should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for the three upcoming months. The greatest probability of such an occurrence should be found across the Southwest, extending northward from the Mexican border to the 4 Corners area (where Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico meet). New England was also expected to have a good chance of above average temperatures. The outlook indicates that the Southeast would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
    The CPC precipitation outlook calls for a better than even chance for below average precipitation during the next three months across the Gulf Coast States running from the upper Texas Gulf Coast to the Southeastern Atlantic Coast. On the other hand, the northern Rockies and adjacent high Plains in Montana would have the best chances of above average precipitation through the end of the year. The remainder of the contiguous states were given essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for October through December 2016.
    A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that assuming that ENSO-neutral conditions would persist through the remainder of 2016, with neither an El Niño or La Niña event anticipated.
    A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
  • Seasonal Drought Outlook released -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-September through December 2016. Their outlook would call for persistence of extensive drought conditions across California, southern Arizona, western Nevada and interior sections of Oregon. A few scattered areas of the West, such as in Utah, Idaho and South Dakota could see continued drought. In the East, drought conditions were expected to continue across sections of New England, Upstate New York, New Jersey and central Pennsylvania. Drought was also expected to continue across sections of the Southeast, where expansion of the drought could affect areas from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the southern and central Appalachians. A few sections of the Plains and northern Rockies could see some improvement in drought conditions during the rest of the year, including some areas that could removed from drought listings. The remainder of the nation does not appear to be headed for drought conditions. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

  CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

  • Warmer Midwestern lake waters from changing climate could impact sport fish communities -- A study of the populations of walleye and largemouth bass in more than 2100 Wisconsin lakes made by a US Geological Survey (USGS) research hydrologist and a former Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources research scientist reports that the walleye populations have been declining over the last 30 years in lakes across Wisconsin, while largemouth bass populations have been increasing. The researchers based their conclusions on the results of a computer model that estimated daily water temperatures from 1979-2014 for thousands of lakes using information on lake size, depth, water clarity, and historical weather. They also noted that the downward trend in walleye populations is likely to continue as projected climate change would cause lakes to warm over time. [USGS News]
  CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
  • Twenty nations expected to join Paris Pact on climate this week -- United Nations (UN) officials recently reported that at least 20 countries additional have indicated they will join the Paris climate change agreement made last December at a United Nations event this coming Wednesday, 21 September 2016. These 20 countries would be in addition to the 27 nations that have already committed to the Paris Agreement on climate change, which would raise hopes that the deal will enter into force by the end of 2016, as ratification is needed by at least 55 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. [Climate Central News]

  COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

  • Some Martian lakes formed later than originally thought -- Using data primarily from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, researchers from the Smithsonian Institution's National Air and Space Museum, the University of Virginia, Charlottesville and NASA Ames Research Center claim that some lakes and snowmelt-fed streams containing liquid water formed on the surface of Mars nearly one billion years later than a well-documented, earlier era of wet conditions on the ancient Red Planet. The researchers conclude that the more recent fairly wet period on Mars likely occurred between two and three billion years ago, at a time when most of Mars' original atmosphere was thought to have been lost and most of the remaining water on the planet had frozen. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory News]
  • Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

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  Concept of the Week: Climate and Architecture

  Humans have been constructing houses and other buildings for thousands of years not only to protect themselves from the weather and other environmental factors, but also to create a comfortable indoor environment that would exhibit energy efficiency, especially in harsh climates. For centuries, natural or primitive housing reflected an adaptation to the climate of the locale and the availability of local building materials.

  In order to maintain a tolerable level of comfort within a building, attention must be paid to thermal effects, ventilation, illumination and atmospheric humidity.

  The indoor thermal state ultimately depends upon the building's energy budget involving incoming and outgoing radiation, latent and sensible heat loss and by interior heat sources or sinks. The indoor thermal level is mainly associated with the external energy load on the building. The external energy load on the building depends upon the latitude of the building, season of the year and time of day.

  In tropical latitudes and during midday hours in summer, the sun's path across the local sky increases the solar radiation incident upon the roof and walls of the building. In polar latitudes, or during the winter or the amount of available sunlight is significantly lower, with the loss of infrared radiation causing a net cooling from the building. Changes in the color of the roof and the outer walls can affect the amount of incoming sunlight absorbed. Building orientation and the effective use of overhangs can also affect the amount of sunlight absorbed. Furthermore, the amount of insulation, often related to the thickness of the walls, reduces the conduction of heat into or out of the building. Thick adobe walls have been used effectively in the Southwest to moderate indoor temperature. These walls reduce the heat flow into the building during the daytime and in summer and out from the building at night or during winter.

  The size and placement of windows also affects the energy balance. Large windows on the side of the building facing the sun's path tend to permit large amounts of sunlight to penetrate into the building. However, large windows on the side facing away from the sun can cause for heat loss due to conduction, as many types of windowpanes are not energy efficient.

  Effective landscaping can reduce energy demands upon a dwelling: Deciduous trees planted on the south and west sides of the home provide cooling shade during the summer, keeping sunlight from entering the windows. These trees will lose their foliage in fall and allow the sun to shine through in winter, and warm south facing rooms. Evergreen trees or dense shrubbery on the north side can serve as a windbreak, which reduce the cold northerly winds from striking the house in winter.

  Energy losses from buildings during the upcoming winter in northern latitudes can be seen readily by how quickly snow melts from roofs and by how big the icicles form. Heat losses from buildings occur with larger negative energy budgets, which are reflected also in higher heating bills during the winter season. However, the heating bills also depend upon the severity of the winter season that can be ascertained from the number of accumulated heating degree-day units. Check this week's DataStreme ECS Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth for how you can monitor the number of heating degree-day units to date in your state for this coming heating season.

  Concept of the Week: Questions

  Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

  1. The thicker the outdoor walls, the [(greater),(less)] the heat flow into or out of a building.
  2. Planting [(evergreen),(deciduous)] vegetation on the south side of a home in New England will help reduce winter heating and summer cooling bills.

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  Historical Events:

  • 19 September 2004...The single-day rainfall record at Vancouver (British Columbia) International Airport was set 3.59 inches. The accumulation came in a month when rainfall is exceptional across the region. By mid-month, dozens of stations in British Columbia broke all-time September rainfall totals. (The Weather Doctor)
  • 20-23 September 1942...A rainstorm deluged the Maritime Provinces. Four-day totals included 13.99 inches at Stellarton, Nova Scotia and 10.83 inches at Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island. Halifax, Nova Scotia recorded 9.40 inches of rain on the 21 September climatological day. (The Weather Doctor)
  • 20 September 1967...Hurricane Beulah moved into South Texas, spawning a record 115 tornadoes for a hurricane. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
  • 20 September 1973...Britain's greatest September daily rainfall floods Kent with 7.51 inches of rain. (The Weather Doctor)
  • 22 September 1913...Des Moines, IA experienced their earliest freeze of record. (The Weather Channel)
  • 22 September 1934...Edmonton, Alberta reported its greatest September snowstorm to date with 8.7 inches of snow. (The Weather Doctor).
  • 23 September 1904...The temperature at Charlotteburg, NJ dipped to 23 degrees, the lowest reading of record for so early in the autumn for the state. (The Weather Channel)
  • 24 September 1888...The earliest frost of record hit the southern states covering South Carolina, Georgia and northern Florida (Intellicast)
  • 24 September 1926...The temperature at Riverside Ranger Station in Yellowstone Park dipped to nine degrees below zero, the lowest reading of record in the U.S. during September. (This record was broken by a 15 degree below zero reading at Big Piney, WY in September 1983.) Severe freezes were widespread over the northwestern U.S. causing great crop destruction. In Washington State, Spokane County experienced their earliest snow of record. Harney Branch Experiment Station in Oregon reported a temperature of 2 degrees above zero to establish a state record for the month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
  • 24-26 September 1950...A smoke pall from western Canada forest fires covered much of the eastern U.S. Daylight was reduced to nighttime darkness in parts of the Northeast. The color of the sun varied from pink to purple, blue, or lavender. Yellow to gray-tan was common. (24th-30th) On the 26th, residents of the northeastern U.S. observed a blue sun and a blue moon from the smoke. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
  • 25 September 1939...A West Coast hurricane moved onshore south of Los Angeles bringing unprecedented rains along the southern coast of California. Nearly five and a half inches of rain drenched Los Angeles during a 24-hr period. The hurricane caused $2 million in damage, mostly to structures along the coast and to crops, and claimed 45 lives at sea. "El Cordonazo" produced 5.66 in. of rain at Los Angeles and 11.6 in. of rain at Mount Wilson, both records for the month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

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  Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@aos.wisc.edu
  © Copyright, 2016, The American Meteorological Society.