WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK SIX: 3- 7 October 2016

Report from the Field:

Dr. Steve LaDochy, a DataStreme LIT Leader and meteorology professor from Cal State University, Los Angeles, reported on the record high temperatures that were reported across southern California at the start of last week. He noted that the weather station at Camarillo reported record high temperatures of 104 degrees (Fahrenheit) on both Sunday and Monday, which not only records for the two days, but also represented record highs for the month of September. In addition, the usually cool Santa Barbara had a temperature of 105 degrees, the likewise cool San Louis Obispo reached 103 degrees and the downtown Los Angeles station in parklike USC campus had a temperature of 101 degrees. Steve also mentioned that a Santa Ana wind event was operative as well (40+ mph in the passes) with below 10% RH even at the beaches. During his Monday meteorology class at 10 am, LAX was 94 degrees with 8% RH, while LA downtown was 84F and 40% RH. He is also pleading for rain, as his garden is nearly dead due to the drought.

ITEMS OF INTEREST

A Cool(!) experience -- Teachers may apply for research experiences in the polar regions. Become a scientific team member on projects in the climatically sensitive area while showcasing your results back to classrooms. PolarTREC (Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating) is a program in which K-12 teachers spend 3-6 weeks participating in hands-on field research experiences in the polar regions. The goal of PolarTREC is to invigorate polar science education and understanding by bringing K-12 educators and polar researchers together. For more information, see https://www.polartrec.com/. Applications due 10 October 2016.
Albuquerque Balloon Fiesta climatology is available -- The world famous Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta takes place near the beginning of each October; this year the 43th annual event started last Saturday (1 October) and will run through next Sunday, 9 October 2016. This nine-day festival involves as many as 750 hot-air balloons and is held over the Rio Grande Valley in the Albuquerque (NM) metropolitan area at this time of year because of the cool nights, sunny days and the lack of thunderstorm activity. Because of the cool autumn nights, the "Albuquerque Box" weather phenomenon occurs, which features light winds from the north near the surface draining down the Rio Grande Valley, while winds from the south aloft permit the balloons to move up and down in this box like feature so as to hover over a small geographic area. The Albuquerque National Weather Service Forecast Office has posted the Balloon Fiesta Climatology that includes the daily temperature and precipitation data for nearly each year of the event along with a further description of the "Albuquerque Box."
Viewing atmospheric circulation in three-dimensions -- Read this week's Supplemental Information.. In Greater Depth for information concerning the average circulation in the lower and upper troposphere.
Counting down for launch of GOES-R, nation's new generation of advanced weather satellites -- Weather experts are anticipating the upcoming launch of NOAA's GOES-R, the first in a new series of four highly advanced weather satellites in early November 2016. Data collected from the sensors onboard GOES-R should help improve NOAA's ability to more accurately predict severe weather events, improve aircraft flight path planning and monitor solar activity. A media briefing is to be held on Tuesday, 11 October, in Washington, DC with a several leading NOAA and NASA officials highlighting the upcoming launch and the GOES-R mission. [NOAA Media Advisory] Editor's Note Special thanks go to Vicky Gorman, a DataStreme LIT member in New Jersey who sent a NASA calendar agenda for the GOES R takeoff. Educators should investigate the Education & Outreach Portal for classroom activities, educational material, lesson plans, and learning tools and games designed by GOES-R partners to help educate students about weather, satellite meteorology and Earth science. EJH

CLIMATE MONITORING

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels passes a threshold -- As of this past month of September 2016, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels appear to have remained above the 400 ppm (parts per million) threshold for the entire year, which would mean that 2016 could represent the first time that the concentrations of this greenhouse gas has remained above the 400 ppm threshold in recorded history, since this time of year usually is the time when carbon dioxide reaches it annual minimum. [Climate Central News]
Unseasonable flooding in northeast Iowa viewed from space -- Images obtained from data collected by the Operational Land Imager onboard NASA's Landsat 8 satellite show the significant flooding on northeastern Iowa's Cedar and Wapsipinicon Rivers at the start of last week, the result of persistent rainfall late in the previous week. Between four and eight inches of rain fell across the region according to the National Weather Service, resulting in unseasonable flooding that was depicted by a hydrograph from a US Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauge at Cedar Rapids, IA. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Sea level in North Indian Ocean seen to rise abruptly in last decade -- A team of researchers from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center recently reported that the sea level of the northern Indian Ocean rose approximately twice as fast as the global average since 2003 based upon their analysis of ocean surface height data collected by satellites since the 1990s. Furthermore, the researchers found that the sea level rise during the last decade in the North Indian Ocean was more than rates of rise in that basin in the previous decade. Two important mechanisms of wind-driven heat redistribution within the Indian Ocean appear to account for a majority of the decadal variability. [NOAA News]
Visualizing climatology of first seasonal snowfall across the nation -- Deke Arndt, Chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), has written a Beyond the Data blog describing the new upgraded interactive map that can be used to see the date by which the chances for the first measurable snowfall (0.1 inches or more) of the season rise to at least 50% at thousands of locations around the nation. These statistics are based upon the US Climate Normals for the 1981-2010 interval calculated by NCEI. Higher elevations in the western states have probably have seen some snow in month of September, while many areas of the Northern Plains and Northern Great Lakes should likely see first snowfalls during the month of October. Deke also showed data plots that how the first dates of snowfall have changed since 1950 at several stations due to changing climate. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Third-quarter 2016 Regional Climate Impacts and Outlooks reports released -- During the last week, NOAA and its partners released a series of ten regional climate overviews for the third quarter of 2016 (June through August) that are designed to inform the public of recent climate impacts within their respective regions. In addition, these reports provide regional future climate outlooks that span the three months of October through December 2016. [NOAA NCDC News]
New Evaporative Stress Index product should aid in early drought warning -- Scientists from NOAA, NASA, the University of Maryland, the US Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service (ARS), the University of Wisconsin and the National Drought Mitigation Center have developed a new product called the GOES Evapotranspiration and Drought Product System, or GET-D designed to provide farmers, ranchers, and water resource managers with more lead time to prepare for potentially damaging drought. One of the products generated is the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) that is produced from land surface temperatures collected from NOAA's GOES satellites and on observations of the leaf area index, an indicator of the canopy of an ecosystem, from the VIIRS instrument onboard NOAA and NASA satellites. According to a developer of the ESI from the University of Maryland, the ESI appears to provide an independent assessment of drought that is not based on precipitation. [NOAA Climate Program Office News]
Canadian national seasonal outlook issued -- Forecasters with Environment Canada issued their outlooks for temperature and precipitation across Canada for October, November and December 2016, which represents the last months of meteorological autumn and the first month of meteorological winter. The temperature outlook indicates that most of Canada, with the exception of the British Columbia, Alberta and southern Saskatchewan in southwestern sections of that nation should experience above normal (1981-2010) temperatures for these three months. Only the afore-mentioned southwestern sections and a small area of southern Baffin Island in eastern Canada may have near normal temperatures.
The Canadian precipitation outlook for autumn and early winter of 2016 indicates that above average precipitation could be expected across several large sections scattered across the nation, extending across the Prairie Provinces into Ontario and Quebec, and across western sections of the Canadian Archipelago in the Arctic. A small area of northern British Columbia and southern Yukon Territory could see below normal precipitation for these three months. Elsewhere, near average autumn-early winter precipitation was anticipated.
[Note for comparisons and continuity with the three-month seasonal outlooks of temperature and precipitation generated for the continental United States and Alaska by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, one would need to use Environment Canada's probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation.]

CLIMATE MODELING

Forty climate model simulations reveals climate variability -- A senior climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and her colleague at the University of Colorado Boulder ran the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model (CESM) forty times for a time span running from 1920 to 2100, using slightly modified starting conditions for each simulation run. The model output, which was called the CESM Large Ensemble, contained a large variety of different results that indicate large climate variability. These results are freely available to climate researchers interested in how natural climate variability and human-caused climate change interact. [NCAR/UCAR AtmosNews]

CLIMATE FORCING

Midwest flooding seen to be linked to changing climate -- The flooding across northeastern Iowa, southwestern Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota during the fourth week of September was due to a slow moving weather system that produced as much as ten inches of rain in 24 hours. This excessive rain event appears to be consistent with climate signals in the region, as 90 percent of 207 weather stations east of the Rocky Mountains saw an increase in the number of 1-inch precipitation days between 1949 and 2013. With increased air temperatures, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere tends to increase, which creates greater precipitation events. [Climate Signals Headlines]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Tropospheric westerly winds, north and south

The theoretical existence of upper tropospheric jet stream winds were not confirmed until being encountered by World War II bomber pilots when heading west into strong headwinds at altitudes of approximately 30,000 feet (10,000 m). Wind speeds sometimes exceeded 170 mph causing their relatively slow, heavily laden aircraft to almost stand still. Subsequently, westerly jet stream winds were found to encircle the planet in midlatitudes of both hemispheres above regions of strong temperature contrasts.

The explanation for these winds involves atmospheric mass distributions and forces on a rotating planet. Air in tropical latitudes is warmed, rises and then flows poleward, both north and south. On a rotating planet, moving air is deflected by the Coriolis effect, to the right in the Northern Hemisphere (and left in the Southern). The greater the temperature differences between warm lower and cold higher latitudes, the stronger the air motions and the faster the jet streams. The vertical temperature patterns result in the highest wind speeds near the top of the troposphere.

So Northern Hemisphere air headed northward, deflected to the right ends up headed east, a "westerly wind." In the Southern Hemisphere, southward moving air, deflected left will also go east, as a westerly wind. These "rivers" of strong upper-level winds steer surface weather systems as they move generally eastward across midlatitudes. They also provide boosts for jet aircraft headed eastward with them, but need to be avoided for going west! Of course, the full story is complex as land (especially mountains) and water surfaces interact with the heating of the air and eddies form in the turbulent flows, so jet streams wander. And with them go the storms and the weather patterns that form our short-term climate.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The Northern Hemisphere jet stream winds would be directed such that cold air is [(to the left),(to the right),(directly ahead)] of their forward motion.
In the Southern Hemisphere, the jet stream winds to be directed generally toward the [(south), (east), (west)].

Historical Events:

3 October 1912...The longest dry spell of record in the U.S. commenced as Bagdad, CA went 767 days without rain, ending on 9 November 1914. (David Ludlum)
4 October 1969...Denver, CO received 9.6 inches of snow. October of that year proved to be the coldest and snowiest of record for Denver, with a total snowfall for the month of 31.2 inches. (Weather Channel)
4-7 October 1972...Remnants of Hurricane Joanne brought heavy rain and flooding to much of Arizona. It was the first documented tropical storm to reach the state with its cyclonic circulation intact. Severe flooding occurred in the Clifton, Duncan and Safford areas. (The Weather Doctor)
4 October 1976...The mean wind speed reached 88.5 mph at Melfort, Saskatchewan, the province's highest ever sustained wind. (The Weather Doctor)
4 October 1987...A rapidly deepening coastal storm dumped record snows across eastern New York State and western New England. Grafton, NY was buried under 22 inches of snow, North Springfield, VT had 21 inches and Pownal, VT recorded 18 inches. Most of the snow occurred at higher elevations but even Albany, NY received 6 inches, their earliest measurable snow in 117 years of records. Damage to trees was extensive as many trees were still in full leaf. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)
In California, high temperatures of 100 degrees at San Francisco, and 108 degrees at Los Angeles and Santa Maria, were October records. San Luis Obispo was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 111 degrees. (The National Weather Summary).
4 October 1998...As many as 27 tornadoes touched down across Oklahoma, establishing the national record for tornadoes in any state on a single October day. (The Weather Doctor)
4 October 2005...The Minneapolis-St. Paul (MN) International Airport received 4.61 inches, breaking the local daily rainfall record for October. North of the Twin Cities, weather spotters reported nine inches of rain in the town of Spencer Brook. (The Weather Doctor)
5 October 1917...The temperature at Sentinel, AZ soared to 116 degrees F, the highest October temperature ever in the U.S. (National Weather Service files)
6 October 1952...A trace of snow fell at Nashville, TN, the earliest ever on record. (Intellicast)
6 October 1967...Canada's 24-hour rainfall record was established at Ucluelet Brynnor Mines on Vancouver Island in British Columbia with 19.24 in. (Accord Weather Calendar)
6 October 1984...The temperature at Honolulu, HI reached 94 degrees to establish an all-time record at that location. (The Weather Channel)
7 October 1981...Seattle, WA received four inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the city. (The Weather Channel)
7 October 1987...Tucson, AZ hit 101 degrees for the second day in a row to again equal their record for the month of October. (The National Weather Summary)
7 October 1992...The 2.1 inches of snow that fell at Concordia, KS was the earliest measurable snow on record at that station. (Intellicast )
8 October 1871...Prolonged drought and desiccating winds from the southwest led to the great Chicago fire, the Peshtigo horror, and the Michigan fire holocaust. Fire destroyed more than seventeen thousand buildings killing more than 200 persons in the city of Chicago, while on the same night a fire consumed the town of Peshtigo, WI killing more than 1100 persons. In Wisconsin, a million acres of land were burned, and in Michigan, 2.5 million acres were burned killing 200 persons. "Tornadoes of fire" generated by intense heat caused houses to explode in fire, and burned to death scores of persons seeking refuge in open fields. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
8 October 1987...Phoenix, AZ reported a record high of 104 degrees and a record tying 116 days of 100-degree weather for the year. Tucson, AZ established an all-time record with 72 days of 100-degree weather for the year. (The National Weather Summary)
8 October 1988...The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Stampede Pass, WA exceeded their previous record for October by seven degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
8 October 1993...With 1.05 inches of rain that fell at Columbia, MO, the yearly total precipitation was pushed to 55.77 inches, breaking the annual record. (Intellicast)
9 October 1903...New York City was deluged with 11.17 in. of rain in 24 hours at Central Park to establish a state record, while 9.40 in. fell at Battery Park. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)
9 October 1980...Nashville, TN reached 91 degrees, highest ever for so late in the season. Just three days earlier, a low of 31 degrees was reported, lowest ever so early in the season. (Intellicast)
9 October 1981...The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

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