WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK 7: 17-21 October 2016

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2016 Campaign resumes -- The tenth in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2016 will commence on Friday (21 October) and continue through Sunday, 31 October. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Pegasus in the Northern Hemisphere and Grus in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next series in the 2016 campaign is scheduled for 20-30 November 2016. [GLOBE at Night]
Monitoring El Niño and La Niña -- Scientists have suggested that a La Niña event could develop during late meteorological autumn in the Northern Hemisphere and continue into the winter season. This event could affect weather patterns across the United States during the upcoming winter months. For more details on how to monitor these phenomena, please read this week's Supplemental Information.. In Greater Depth.
Focusing on the nation's temperature superlatives -- Deke Arndt, Chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), recently wrote a Beyond the Data blog entitled "Back to the Basics: Temperature truisms" in which he considers where the coldest and warmest places are located around the nation, obtaining a set of Top 10 lists provided by NCEI's "US Climate Extremes" interactive webpage. [NOAA Climate.gov News] (Editor's Note: The US Climate Extremes webpage is an interesting site that should be explored. An overview is provided with more background information. EJH)

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

National weather and climate reviewed for September 2016 -- Scientists at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data collected during the month of September 2016. Based upon these data, this recently concluded September was the ninth warmest September across the contiguous United States since sufficiently reliable climate records began in 1895. The nationwide monthly average for September was 67.2 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 2.4 Fahrenheit degrees higher than the 20th century (1901-2000) average. While the average maximum (daytime) September temperature across the nation was 23rd highest, the nation's average minimum (nighttime) temperature for September 2016 was fourth highest in the 122-year record.
Except for the eight states across the West that experienced near average statewide temperatures, essentially all states east of the Rocky Mountains experienced statewide average temperatures for September that were above to much above their 20th century averages. Furthermore, nearly all states to the east of the Mississippi River had September temperatures that would rank in the top ten highest for their respective states. Ohio reported a record high statewide September monthly temperature.
Alaska reported a statewide temperature of 42.3 degrees Fahrenheit, the 26th highest temperature reading for the state's period of record that commenced in 1925.
The September 2016 average precipitation across the "Lower 48 states" was approximately 0.27 inches above the 20th century average with a nationwide average of 2.70 inches making it the 40th wettest September since 1895. New England and New York State reported below to much below average precipitation for the month. The statewide September precipitation for Maine was the fifth smallest in the 122 years of record. Below average statewide monthly rainfall totals were reported across five states in the lower Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, while in the West, California and Oregon also reported below average monthly precipitation. A dozen states across the western Great Lakes, the upper Mississippi and Missouri Valleys and the Great Basin had above to much above average September 2016 precipitation. States along the Atlantic Seaboard from Delaware southward to Florida also had above to much above average September rain, Delaware reporting its fourth wettest September on record and South Carolina its tenth wettest. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
September national drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its September 2016 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately five percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of September, while 16 percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
Status of Arctic sea ice extent at end of September -- Scientists at the National Snow & Ice Center recently reported that the Arctic sea ice extent at the end of its melt season was at the second lowest in the daily average and fifth lowest in the monthly average since records of sea ice extent commenced in 1979. [National Snow & Ice Center News]

CLIMATE FORCING

Assessing how "ozone hole" may be linked to climate -- A contractor with NOAA's Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research wrote a feature article for the ClimateWatch Magazine that describes how the recurring minimum levels in stratospheric ozone over the polar regions, often called the "ozone hole", appears to be linked to the Earth's climate. She identifies four ways that the ozone hole and climate may be linked: Antarctica is sufficiently cold to permit the ozone hole to develop reliably; austral spring is "ozone hole season"; the largest ozone holes are often associated with the coldest winters; and the ozone hole has left its mark on the Southern Hemisphere's summer climate. However, she notes that the ozone hole did not cause "global warming." [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Large precipitation events in West are critical for groundwater replenishment -- A new study conducted by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the US Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) reports that large precipitation events that occur approximately once every ten years (quasi-decadal) appear to serve as a critical source of recharge for groundwater resources across the Western US. This study was based upon analysis of large, quasi-decadal groundwater recharge events of several years duration that occurred in the northern Great Basin between 1960 and 2013. The results of this study could help in understanding the effects of climate on groundwater resources and upon long-term groundwater management in the future. [USGS News]
New permafrost map of circumpolar regions shows regions vulnerable to thaw and carbon release -- Researchers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks and the University of Alberta have recently produced a circumpolar map of the northern permafrost region that identifies those "thermokarst" regions that would be most susceptible to dramatic permafrost thaw. The researchers estimate that approximately 20 percent of the circumpolar permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere is potentially a thermokarst landscape, which would result in the release of greenhouse gases that include carbon dioxide and methane. [University of Alaska Fairbanks News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion & La Niña watch -- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society recently released their El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion that showed ENSO-neutral conditions were observed to continue through September, indicating neither El Niño or La Niña conditions, as cooler than average surface waters expanded across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. After dropping their La Niña watch in September, the CPC forecasters have reissued a La Niña watch that indicates a 70 percent chance that a La Niña event will develop during this Northern Hemisphere fall and conditions would indicate a slightly favorable chance (55 percent) of a continuation of the La Niña during the boreal winter of 2016-17. An ENSO blog written by CPC staff describes how the atmospheric circulation and the sea surface temperature patterns have shown some increased activity beginning in mid-September that would suggest a transition from the ENSO-neutral conditions to a La Niña event during the late fall and early winter 2016-17 (in the Northern Hemisphere). The blog also has accompanying graphics. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
A detailed El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion with supporting maps and charts is available from CPC.
Projected climate change could benefit Ethiopia's access to water -- Researchers from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech) recently reported that future changes in precipitation associated with projected increases in global temperature may result in enhanced agricultural and hydrologic resources in the Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia, with positive implications for the economy of that African country. The researchers based their outlook on a suite of climate and hydrologic models to predict water availability and sediment transport in the Blue Nile. [Virginia Tech News]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS

Extratropical impacts found to precede rapid global warming 56 million years ago -- Researchers at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and colleagues at Rutgers and Columbia Universities have discovered evidence of a comet striking Earth from tiny dark spheres of extraterrestrial origin called microtektites that were found in sediment samples taken from sites in New Jersey and offshore of Florida. These researchers claim that this comet strike may have triggered the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a rapid warming of the Earth caused by an accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide 56 million years ago. Global temperatures appear to have spiked with an increase of between 5 and 8 Celsius degrees during a time span of approximately 150,000 years. [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute News]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

How plants withstand harsh environmental conditions remains major research challenge -- Plant scientists at Purdue University are attempting to understand how plants can cope with harsh environmental conditions such as drought, extreme temperatures and high salt concentrations in the soil. Some progress has been made into the understanding as the researchers in terms of decoding of plants' stress signaling pathways and defense mechanisms. The scientists hope that their research could help develop more resistant plants that would improve agriculture productivity and global food security. [Purdue University Agriculture News]
Changing climate has doubled forest fire area across Western States -- Researchers from the University of Idaho and Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory recently reported that human-induced climate change has doubled the area affected by forest fires across the U.S. West over the last 30 years. They claim that since 1984 heightened temperatures and resulting aridity have caused fires to spread across an additional 16,000 square miles than they otherwise would have. The scientists also warn that additional warming would increase fire exponentially in coming decades. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Assessing vulnerability of older buildings and structures to changing climate -- During this past week an assessment of the vulnerability of older building structures to climate change posted on the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit website, which is managed by NOAA's Climate Program Office. "The increased frequency of some extreme weather events and expected changes in 'everyday' climate conditions may present a challenge to older buildings and infrastructure. Bolstering outdated structures and implementing updated building codes may help reduce vulnerabilities." [US Climate Resilience Toolkit]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Seawater Salinity and Carbon Dioxide

The contemporary concern regarding global climate change has caused scientists to study the various factors that govern the ocean's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, are on the rise primarily because of increased burning of fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be contributing to increased global temperatures, a condition often identified as global warming. The ocean's role in regulating the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the temperature, salinity, and biological components of surface waters.

Studies show that the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide is primarily temperature dependent. As noted in Chapter 8 of your textbook, gases are more soluble in cold seawater than warm seawater. Hence, changes in sea surface temperature affect the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide. We also found in Chapter 1, photosynthetic organisms assimilate carbon dioxide and release oxygen. Through cellular respiration, all organisms release carbon dioxide. Therefore, biological activity affects the ocean's ability to absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

What about the effects of changes in salinity on the ocean's uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Research from the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii provides some insight on this question. For nearly 20 years, scientists have been collecting physical, chemical and biological data through a large column of ocean water at Station ALOHA, a sampling site about 100 km (62 mi) north of Oahu that appears representative of oceanic conditions in the central North Pacific. In 2003, David M. Karl, a biogeochemist at the University of Hawaii in Honolulu, reported a decline in the rate at which surface ocean waters were absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In 2001, the rate of carbon dioxide uptake was only about 15% of the rate in 1989. Why the change in carbon dioxide uptake? In this region of the Pacific north of Hawaii, sea surface temperatures showed no significant change during the period of observation but precipitation decreased and evaporation increased. Less precipitation associated with drought coupled with higher rates of evaporation caused the surface water salinity at ALOHA to increase by about 1%. Increasing salinity inhibits water's ability to absorb gases including carbon dioxide. Karl and his colleagues attribute 40% of the decline in the ocean's carbon dioxide uptake to the saltier waters. The balance of the decline may be due to changes in biological productivity or ocean mixing.

Projected changes in global climate indicate significant changes in precipitation around the globe including reduced precipitation over various large areas of the oceans, resulting in potential "drought" conditions. Since changes in oceanic salinity result from changes in precipitation, the contribution that salinity plays on future assimilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the ocean also becomes an important consideration.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

With rising sea surface temperatures, the rate of evaporation of seawater [(increases), (decreases)].
With increasing salinity and constant temperature, the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is taken up by ocean water [(increases), (decreases)].

Historical Events:

17-18 October 2005...Heavy rain fell on Las Vegas, NV over the two-day period, with a rainfall total of 1.42 inches, which broke the full month record for October set in 1992. (The Weather Doctor)
17-19 October 2007...According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, 87 tornadoes were reported in the United States on these three days -- a new record outbreak for the month. With the outbreak, the monthly total of confirmed tornado reached 105, the second highest for October, behind the 117 in October 2001 since records began in 1950. Over 300 reports of severe weather were filed on 18 October across the lower and mid-Mississippi Valleys. (The Weather Doctor)
18 October 1984...Heavy snow began falling late on the 17^th at Salt Lake City and when it ended, 18.4 inches fell, setting a new 24-hour snowfall record. (Intellicast)
18-19 October 2005...Hurricane Wilma developed a tiny, well-defined eye and began intensifying rapidly, reaching Category 5 strength with a record-setting pressure of 882 millibars (26.04 inches of mercury) by 19 October. The rapid intensification from tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours was the fastest ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean, and the second-fastest worldwide, after Super Typhoon Forrest. (National Weather Service files)
20 October 2004...Rain at two stations in Nevada broke the state's previous 24-hour maximum precipitation record of 7.13 inches set previously at Mt. Rose Highway Station (31 January 1963). The new state record of 9.78 inches was established at Mt. Charleston, while Kyle Canyon also broke the old record with 8.75 inches. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
21 October 1996...Portland, ME received 13.32 inches of rain to set a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the Pine Tree State. (NCDC)
22 October 1987...Yakutat, AK surpassed their previous all-time yearly precipitation total of 190 inches. Monthly records were set in June with 17 inches, in September with 70 inches, and in October with more than 40 inches. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
22 October 2005...Isla Mujeres, Mexico set the Northern Hemisphere's and Western Hemisphere's 24-hour rainfall record with 64.33 inches thanks to Hurricane Wilma. (National Weather Service files)

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