WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

Thanksgiving Week: 21-25 November 2015

This is Thanksgiving Break for the Fall 2016 offering of the DataStreme Earth Climate Systems course. This Weekly Climate News contains new information items and historical data, but the Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 11.

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving Week from the AMS DS ECS Central Staff and Ed Hopkins!

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• News flash! Nation's newest environmental sensing satellite heading for its geosynchronous orbit -- Last Saturday evening (19 November 2016, an Atlas V Centaur rocket lifted off from the launch pad at Cape Canaveral, FL carrying the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R spacecraft, the first of a next generation of Earth sensing satellite that is intended to dramatically improve NOAA's capability for observing the weather as onboard sensors should scan the Earth's disc surrounding the equatorial sub-satellite point with four times the spatial resolution as earlier satellites and five times faster. In addition to observing weather systems for weather forecasting, the sensors onboard the satellite is designed to monitor volcanic ash clouds, lightning, solar activity that are important for the ocean and climate sciences. In approximately two weeks, GOES-R will be positioned in its designated geosynchronous orbit approximately 22,300 miles above Earth and will become known as GOES-16. A series of calibration tests will be made over the next several months before the satellite will become operational. Three additional satellites, labeled S through U, are scheduled to follow in the GOES-R series over future years. [NOAA News] [NOAA/NASA GOES-R]
• Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2016 Campaign is underway -- The twelfth in the series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2016 will continue through Wednesday, 30 November. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Perseus in the Northern Hemisphere and Grus in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next and final series in the 2016 campaign is scheduled for 20-30 December 2016. [GLOBE at Night]
• Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• Review of October 2016 weather and climate across the US -- Using preliminary weather data gathered during the month of October 2016 from across the nation, scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently reported that the average temperature averaged across the 48 contiguous United States for this past month was approximately 3.6 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) long term average, making this recently concluded month the third warmest October since a comprehensive national climate network began in 1895. The relatively elevated average temperature for the month was primarily the result of relatively warm nights, with the average minimum (or nighttime) temperature for October 2016 being the second highest on record, while the daytime conditions were not quite as warm, as indicated by an October average maximum (or daytime) temperature across the "Lower 48" for 2016 being the sixth highest on record. With the exception of three states (Montana, Oregon and Washington) where near-average statewide monthly average temperatures were found, the other 45 contiguous states experienced above to much above average temperatures. New Mexico experienced its highest monthly October average temperature in 122 years of record. Furthermore, as many as two dozen states across the nation's midsection had statewide average temperatures that were within the ten highest October temperatures since 1895. Alaska had an October average temperature that was the 18th highest since statewide records began in 1925.
  Preliminary precipitation records for October 2016 indicate that the nationwide average precipitation total for the month was 0.17 inches above the 20th century average, placing the month as the 49th wettest of the 122-year record. Relatively wet conditions were found across the West Coast, the northern tier of states, running from the interior Northwest into the Great Lakes States and along the sections of the Atlantic Seaboard. Idaho, Montana and Washington had record maximum precipitation totals while California and Oregon along with South Carolina had statewide precipitation totals for the month that were in the top ten in their respective periods of record. On the other hand, states across southern sections of the nation running from the Southwest eastward to the Ohio Valley and the Southeast experienced drier than average monthly statewide precipitation levels. Alabama, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas had statewide precipitation totals that ranked within the top 11 statewide precipitation amounts since 1895. The remainder of the states had monthly statewide October precipitation totals that were close to the 20th century averages.
  Alaska had its driest October in 92 years of record. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
  NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
• October drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its October 2016 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately six percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of October, while eleven percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
• Three "drought hot-spots" identified across the nation -- A feature article appeared last week in NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine that located three separate "hot-spots" across the contiguous United States that were experiencing severe to exceptional drought during early November. A combination of extremely warm weather across the US and below average precipitation in September and October created these three hot-spots in Southern California, the Southeast and New England. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
• Monitoring Southern California's drought from space -- A large section of Southern California remains under extreme to exceptional drought conditions as of the end of the first week of November as reported by the US Drought Monitor. According to this source, the area of exceptional drought has expanded since late 2013. Comparison of images of Southern California made by the Operational Land Imager onboard NASA's Landsat 8 satellite in October 2013 and 2016 shows a dramatic shrinkage of size of Lake Cachuma, a source of water for the Santa Barbara metropolitan area. [NASA Earth Observatory]
• Snow cover across contiguous US drops to all-time low for November -- NOAA's National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center recently reported that as of the start of last week (14 November 2016), the areal extent of snow cover across the 48 contiguous United States was the smallest on record. [NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

• Marshes along Pacific coast appear more resilient to rising seas than their Atlantic counterparts -- A technical report entitled "Assessing tidal marsh resilience to sea-level rise at broad geographic scales with multi-metric indices" was recently published by a team of scientists involved with NOAA's National Estuarine Research Reserve System that reports on their establishment of a national baseline for monitoring the effects of climate change on estuaries. This study, which was conducted at 16 sites in 13 coastal states, shows Pacific coast tidal marshes are more resistant to rising sea levels from climate change than marshes in the Atlantic. The reasons for the differences are twofold: Pacific marshes are generally at higher elevations than Atlantic marshes, and oceanographic circulation of the eastern North Pacific tends to push water away from the coast, reducing the effect of sea level rise. [NOAA News] or [NOAA Ocean Service News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• Official updated winter weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their updated Three-Month Seasonal Outlook for meteorological winter (the three months of December 2016 through February 2017) across the nation. Specific details of their outlooks include:
  • Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, the southern tier of states extending from California along the West Coast eastward to the Carolinas and across New England should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for these three upcoming months. The greatest probability of such an occurrence to be found across Texas, New Mexico and Arizona in the Southwest and across Maine in New England. Conversely, the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, centered on North Dakota, were considered to have a better that average chance of below average winter temperatures. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the nation would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions. These regions would extend eastward from the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies and the central Plains to the Midwest and the Middle Atlantic States.
    Their precipitation outlook calls for the southern tier of states extending from southern California eastward to the Florida Peninsula and the Atlantic Seaboard northward through the Carolinas have a better than even chance of below average precipitation for meteorological winter 2016-17. The greatest probability for dry winter conditions would be centered on Florida and sections of the Gulf Coast. On the other hand, sections of the northern Rockies and adjacent high Plains in Montana along with the region around the Great Lakes centered upon Michigan would have better than even chances of above average precipitation totals for these three months. Elsewhere, a narrow section of the coterminous states running from the Pacific Coast to northern New England should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for this upcoming winter.
    A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that weak La Niña conditions had developed and that this weak La Niña had a slightly better than even chance of continuing through this upcoming winter, before returning to ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with neither prevailing El Niño nor La Niña conditions) by next summer. A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
    NOTE: These outlooks can be compared with the public winter outlooks that CPC released in mid-October 2016.
  • Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-November 2016 through February 2017.
    Their outlook indicates that essentially all the areas across California, Nevada and Arizona in the Southwest, the eastern slopes of the central Rockies, the Mid-South, the Southeast and the Northeast (Middle Atlantic and New England States) that are currently experiencing drought conditions would continue to experience drought. Expansion of this persistent drought was anticipated across sections of the Southwest, the southern Plains, the Southeast and the Middle Atlantic States. A few scattered areas in northern California, northwestern Nevada and eastern Oregon in the West, the mid-Ohio Valley in the Midwest and areas of New York State downwind of the eastern Great Lakes in the Northeast could see some improvement of their drought conditions. Many of these areas could receive sufficient precipitation that could possibly cause removal from drought status. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

• Assessing how climate and humans respond to past volcanic eruptions -- The first workshop of the Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society Working Group was conducted early last June at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory that included approximately 50 researchers considered the history of past significant volcanic eruptions and how these eruptions have affected the natural systems, including the climate, and human societies around the globe. Major eruptions were linked to historical famines, mortality, conflict, and state decline. Physical processes that interconnect the eruptions with the natural and human systems were considered. [EOS]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• New report and companion website focuses upon building resilience of nation's natural resources -- During the past week, a "Resilient Lands and Waters Initiative" report and companion website were unveiled that were collaboratively developed by the US Department of Interior, NOAA, the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, and numerous other agencies and partners. The report and website featured the efforts of seven partnerships designed to build resilience of the nation's natural resources. The initiative for these efforts represents a key part of the President's Interagency Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience's Priority Agenda for Enhancing the Climate Resilience of America's Natural Resources. [NOAA News]
• Extreme rainfall events used to help select appropriate culvert sizes -- The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, a website developed by NOAA and other Federal agencies, is providing a new tool that allows civil engineers and local decision makers the opportunity to use historical rainfall analysis in order to properly size culvert design for roads and trails. Using extreme rainfall analyses is becoming more critical for culvert design as the magnitudes and frequencies of excessive precipitation events are increasing across many areas of the nation. [U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit]
• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
2. The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

• 23 November 1909...Rattlesnake Creek was deluged with 7.17 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state of Idaho. (The Weather Channel)
• 23 November 1943...Northern New Hampshire was in the grips of a record snowstorm that left a total of 55 inches at Berlin, 56 inches at Randolph and many other locations over 40 inches. The 56-inch total at Randolph in Coos County established a 24-hour snowfall record for the state. In Maine, Middle Dam received a record 35 inches of snow in 24 hours. (David Ludlum)
• 23 November 1974...Bismarck, ND was in the middle of a 5-day snowstorm during which 28.3 inches fell, the greatest on record. (Intellicast)
• 23 November 1983...A 24-hour snowfall record for Duluth, MN was broken with 16.9 inches. 19.7 inches fell during the entire storm, also a record.
• 23 November 1991...La Crosse, WI set a new record for 24-hour snowfall with 13 inches. This storm brought the monthly total to 28.2 inches, also a record. (Intellicast)
• 24 November 1950...The temperature at Chicago, IL dipped to 2 degrees below zero to equal their record for the month established on the 29^th in 1872. On the first of the month that year, Chicago established a record high for November with a reading of 81 degrees. (The Weather Channel)
• 26 November 1896...Snow and high winds hit the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley, with a Thanksgiving Day blizzard across North Dakota. The storm was followed by a severe cold wave in the Upper Midwest. The temperature at Pokegama Dam plunged to 45 degrees below zero, which remains the lowest recorded November temperature in Minnesota. (David Ludlum)
• 27 November 1701...Anders Celsius, the astronomer who invented the Celsius thermometer scale, was born in Uppsala, Sweden. (National Weather Service files)
• 27 November 1912...Snow fell across northern Florida, marking one of the few times it has ever snowed there in November. (National Weather Service files)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@aos.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2016, The American Meteorological Society.