WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

19-23 March 2012

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Notice the Equinox -- The vernal equinox, which marks the commencement of astronomical spring, will occur early Tuesday morning (officially at 0514Z on 20 March 2012 or 1:14 AM EDT, 12:14 PM CDT, etc.). If you checked the sunrise and sunset times in your local newspaper or from the climate page at your local National Weather Service Office, you would probably find that by midweek, the sun should have been above the horizon for at least 12 hours at most locations. As discussed previously, the effects of atmospheric refraction (bending of light rays by the varying density of the atmosphere) along with a relatively large diameter of the sun contribute to several additional minutes that the sun appears above the horizon at sunrise and sunset.
International observances -- Several days during this upcoming week have been designated as special days that are intended to focus public attention on the environment and earth science:

"Earth-Sun Day"-- Since this coming Tuesday (20 March 2012) is the vernal equinox, Monday has been declared Earth-Sun Day, which includes a series of programs and events that occur throughout the year culminating with a celebration on the Spring Equinox. This year's theme is "Shadows of the Sun!" , designed to explore the nature of eclipses and transits throughout our solar system during 2012, a special year for several noteworthy astronomical events. NOTE: A special "Transit of Venus Celebration" will be observed on 5 June 2012.
"World Water Day" -- Thursday, 22 March 2012, has been designated by the United Nations (UN) as the annual World Water Day, with this year's theme identified as "Water and Food Security: The World is Thirsty Because We are Hungry," which aims to raise awareness on the amount of water needed to produce food. [UN-Water]
"World Meteorology Day" -- Thursday, 23 March 2012 is World Meteorology Day. This day is designated to celebrate the anniversary of the establishment of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on 23 March 1950. The WMO is an agency within the United Nations. The theme of this year's World Meteorological Day for 2012 is "Powering our future with weather, climate and water,"
which focuses on the critical roles that weather, climate and water services would have in powering a sustainable future for current and future generations.

A phenological event in the Cherry Blossom Watch -- Many tourists descend upon Washington, DC during the spring to view the sights, including the blossoming cherry trees that line the Tidal Basin along the Potomac River. The National Park service operates a website that reports the status of the cherry blossoms in anticipation of the 100th annual Cherry Blossom Festival that is scheduled for next two weeks (Saturday, 24 March to Sunday, 15 April 2012). This site also has a listing of the phenological observations for past bloom dates. According to a recent update, experts expect that the trees should be in peak bloom during the next few days (20-23 March), nearly one week ahead of schedule. [USA Today]
Monitoring El Niño and La Niña -- Scientists have suggested that some of the unusual weather patterns that have affected not only the United States, but other countries during the last several years, may have been linked to events called El Niño and La Niña. For more details on how to monitor these phenomena using a variety of current weather data, please read this week's Supplemental Information…In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

February drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its February 2012 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately 13 percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of February, while nine percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
Comparing two snow seasons across the nation -- Comparison of snow cover maps generated by data collected by data obtained from the MODIS sensor on NASA's Terra satellite in early March of 2011 and 2012 shows a significantly smaller snow cover at the end of the just concluded meteorological winter (December 2011 through February 2012) as compared with the previous winter (December 2010 through February 2011). According to a climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the lack of significant snow in many locations across the nation this year is due in part to the La Nina conditions that continue into early spring and also to the strong Arctic Oscillation. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Another IceBridge scientific mission commences in the Arctic -- Early last week, researchers along with a flight crew began NASA's IceBridge 2012 Arctic Campaign, an airborne mission designed to collect data and study changes in polar ice across the Arctic basin. This field campaign, which will include a modified aircraft from NASA's Wallops Island Flight Facility, will conduct daily airborne missions from Greenland in order to measure sea and land ice. The annual IceBridge campaigns began as a means for continuing the multi-year records of ice elevation measurements after NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite's (ICESat) stopped collecting data in 2009. [NASA IceBridge 2012 Mission]
Major airborne scientific study in Southeast Asia is planned -- Scientists from the University of Colorado and NASA are planning a scientific mission called the Southeast Asia Composition, Cloud, Climate Coupling Regional Study, or SEAC4RS, for this year that is designed to obtain atmospheric measurements across Southeast Asia from surface and aircraft observations that will be coordinated with observations made by sensors on NASA's A-Train fleet of satellites, including the Aura spacecraft. These measurements are designed to assess the chemicals and particles that are pumped into the atmosphere and could have potential consequences for the Earth's climate. [NASA Headquarters]
GRACE turns 10 and shows "gravity is climate"-- NASA's twin Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) spacecraft have been orbiting the Earth for 10 years, making detailed measurements of Earth's gravitational field. These measurements capture minute changes in gravity that are associated with local changes in the mass of the Earth, which are usually caused by redistribution of ice, air, water and solid Earth due to weather patterns, seasonal change, climatic change and tectonic events. For example, oceanographers and climate scientists have been using the data to study the ice melting rate on Greenland. [NASA JPL]
Long-term record of carbon dioxide accumulations in world oceans assembled -- An international team of more than 100 scientists from the United States, the United Kingdom, Norway and France have recently assembled the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT), a comprehensive data set that contains in excess of six million surface water carbon dioxide measurements that have made in the global oceans and coastal seas. These measurements have been made since 1968 from research vessels, commercial ships and moorings. [University of East Anglia]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes -- A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

Ship tracks across Pacific seen from space -- A recent natural color image obtained from data collected by the MODIS sensor onboard NASA's Aqua satellite shows "ship tracks" across the eastern North Pacific off the California coast. These ship tracks, some of which may extend from hundreds of miles, are narrow clouds that form in the low atmosphere behind the moving ships from the water-soluble pollution particles in the exhaust generated by the ship engines. These particles could linger and affect the local radiation budget over the ocean surface, especially in sections of the eastern Pacific where ship traffic is heavy. Health risks due to the exhaust particles can also pose a problem. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

A pest-filled spring could follow a warm winter -- Farmers and agricultural specialists across northern sections of the nation are concerned that the unseasonably warm winter with little snow that many of these areas just experienced may lead to a tough spring for agriculture during the upcoming spring as many of the pests that could damage crops have survived and are beginning to emerge. Typically, sufficiently cold winters help wipe out many of the insects. However, according to some specialists, some insects could be threatened by a lack of snow that would insulate the insects from the cold weather. [STL Today]
Vineyard records show early grape ripening due to changing climate -- Scientists from Australia's University of Melbourne and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) have documented that based upon decades of vineyard records in Australia, the early ripening of wine grapes can be attributed to a warmer climate and declines in soil water content. [CSIRO News]
Declines in butterfly population driven by early spring -- In research conducted at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, early snowmelt in the Colorado Rocky Mountains associated with climate change appears to have caused a decline in the population of the Mormon Fritillary butterfly because of a decrease in the number of flowers, which reduces the available nectar and ultimately the number of butterflies. [National Science Foundation News]
Changing climate threatening glacier-fed river systems -- A study conducted by researchers from Denmark's University of Copenhagen have found that biodiversity in mountainous freshwater ecosystems is decreasing as glaciers melt due to increasing global temperatures. The decrease in biodiversity is a result of fewer species that are dependent upon the icy runoff waters. [University of Copenhagen News]
Protected coral reefs are harmed by rising ocean temperatures -- A study conducted by scientists from Conservation International, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and NOAA indicates that despite special conservation efforts offered by marine protected areas, coral reefs in these regions still are being harmed by warming ocean waters due to global climate change. The researchers warn that in order to protect these coral reefs from climate change, the marine protected areas need to be complemented with policies that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a meaningful way. [University of North Carolina News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

New Seasonal Climate Outlooks released -- During the last week, forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released their Three-Month (Seasonal) Climate Outlooks for the three-months running from April through June 2012, which contains the last two months of meteorological spring and the first month of meteorological summer. Their outlook for the temperature over these three months indicates a high chance of above average temperatures across the southern and eastern sections of the nation, extending from southern Arizona eastward across the Gulf Coast States and then across the Atlantic Seaboard to New England. On the other hand, the Pacific Northwest appeared to stand a good chance of having below average temperatures. Elsewhere, near equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions were foreseen. The forecasters also indicated that the central and western Gulf Coast, along with the Great Basin and the central Rockies should experience a better than even chance for drier than average conditions in the next three months. The balance of the nation appear to have equal chances of below or above average precipitation. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center] One-Month Outlooks of temperature and precipitation for April are also available.
These outlooks are based on La Niña correlations, recent time series trends in climate and the soil moisture anomaly across the region. The current La Niña episode is expected to dissipate by April.
Seasonal Drought Outlook released -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook that would run from mid March through June 2012 in which drought would persist or expand across the Southwest and Southeast. Improvement in the drought conditions was envisioned across the Plains, the upper Midwest and a few sections of the Northwest.
Spring flood outlook for nation -- Forecasters with the National Weather Service's Hydrologic Information Center issued their National Hydrologic Assessment for Spring 2012 that includes an above normal risk for spring flooding over the Lower Ohio Valley and sections of southern Louisiana and Mississippi along the central Gulf Coast, because of above average precipitation in the Ohio Valley. On the other hand, the forecasters were not expecting major to record snowmelt flooding across the northern Plains for the first time in the last four years Sections of the upper Mississippi and the upper and middle Missouri Basins would have below normal risk of flooding, while the Red River of the North Basins should have a near normal risk of flooding. Because of continued drought conditions, below normal flood risks were expected across Texas and the Southwest and across the Southeast. [National Weather Service]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Ancient sea-level rise estimate has been lowered by new evidence -- Climate scientists at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and their colleagues at other research institutions report that their analysis of ancient shorelines on cliffs and reefs on Bermuda and the Bahamas during an extremely warm interval approximately 400,000 years ago the sea rose between 20 to 43 feet higher than current sea levels, which is nearly one third of previous estimates. The research indicates that while ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica collapsed at that time, the larger East Antarctic Ice Sheet did not collapse. The researchers feel that their results will have important implications as to the height of future global sea-level rises. [The Earth Institute, Columbia University]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Skepticism of global warming grows during tough economic times -- Political scientists from the University of Connecticut have found that public opinion polls taken recently show that the American public has become increasingly skeptical of the existence of human-caused climate change because of the public's greater concern about the economy and job security during the current "Great Recession." The researchers also noted similar decreases in European opinion polls. [UConn Today]
Respiratory diseases expected to worsen with changing global climate -- A position paper presented to the American Thoracic Society by a committee of ten representatives from Europe, Asia, India, the Middle East and Africa states that anticipated increases in air pollution that would accompany increased global temperatures would result in worldwide increases in the incidence of several respiratory diseases such as asthma, allergies and infectious and cardiovascular diseases. In addition to increased temperature, ozone levels in urban areas would increase, desertification would spread and the range of the diseases would expand. [University of California-Davis Health System]
Major shifts in South Asian civilizations linked to monsoon changes -- Researchers at The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and their colleagues from other institutions claim that their analysis of sediment collected from a core in the Bay of Bengal shows a major shift in the Indian monsoon circulation regime has occurred over the last 10,000 years that has caused major shifts in civilizations across present day India. The researchers found that over time, the steady humid monsoon regime that favored lush vegetation has evolved into one with extended intervals of drought, with less lush vegetation during the last 4000 years. Consequently, civilization in India had to adapt to more arid conditions for food production. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution News Release]
Better climate data needed by African farmers to improve farming practices -- Researchers from the University of New Hampshire and their colleagues from other academic research institutions in New York State, California, Florida and Quebec claim that many African farmers especially in the Albertine Rift region of East Africa could improve their farming practices if better climate information were available to them, as they currently have inaccurately perceived changes in climate and rainfall. [University of New Hampshire]
Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Interesting wave features found on Jovian jet stream -- Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center who have been studying movies of Jupiter produced by NASA's Cassini-Huygens spacecraft when it passed Jupiter in 2000 have found what appears as an invisible wave in one of the planet's jet streams that produces a set of wavelike "chevrons" and is similar to the interaction between the wave-like undulations in the Earth's atmosphere called "Rossby waves" and terrestrial weather. [NASA JPL]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Seawater Salinity and Carbon Dioxide -- updated

The contemporary concern regarding global climate change has caused scientists to study the various factors that govern the ocean's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, are on the rise primarily because of increased burning of fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be contributing to increased global temperatures, a condition often identified as global warming. The ocean's role in regulating the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the temperature, salinity, and biological components of surface waters.

Studies show that the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide is primarily temperature dependent. As noted in Chapter 8 of your textbook, gases are more soluble in cold seawater than warm seawater. Hence, changes in sea surface temperature affect the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide. We also found in Chapter 1, photosynthetic organisms assimilate carbon dioxide and release oxygen. Through cellular respiration, all organisms release carbon dioxide. Therefore, biological activity affects the ocean's ability to absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

What about the effects of changes in salinity on the ocean's uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Research from the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii provides some insight on this question. For nearly 20 years, scientists have been collecting physical, chemical and biological data through a large column of ocean water at Station ALOHA, a sampling site about 100 km (62 mi) north of Oahu that appears representative of oceanic conditions in the central North Pacific. In 2003, David M. Karl, a biogeochemist at the University of Hawaii in Honolulu, reported a decline in the rate at which surface ocean waters were absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In 2001, the rate of carbon dioxide uptake was only about 15% of the rate in 1989. Why the change in carbon dioxide uptake? In this region of the Pacific north of Hawaii, sea surface temperatures showed no significant change during the period of observation but precipitation decreased and evaporation increased. Less precipitation associated with drought coupled with higher rates of evaporation caused the surface water salinity at ALOHA to increase by about 1%. Increasing salinity inhibits water's ability to absorb gases including carbon dioxide. Karl and his colleagues attribute 40% of the decline in the ocean's carbon dioxide uptake to the saltier waters. The balance of the decline may be due to changes in biological productivity or ocean mixing.

Projected changes in global climate indicate significant changes in precipitation around the globe including reduced precipitation over various large areas of the oceans, resulting in potential "drought" conditions. Since changes in oceanic salinity result from changes in precipitation, the contribution that salinity plays on future assimilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the ocean also becomes an important consideration.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

With rising sea surface temperatures, the rate of evaporation of seawater [(increases), (decreases)].
With increasing salinity and constant temperature, the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is taken up by ocean water [(increases), (decreases)].

Historical Events:

19 March 1950...Timberline Lodge on Mount Hood reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel)
19 March 1964...Up to 39 inches of snow fell at Cape Whittle for Quebec's greatest one-day snow total. (The Weather Doctor)
20-21 March 1948...Juneau, AK received 31.0 inches of snow, to set a 24-hour snowfall record for Alaska's capital. This snowfall record pales compared to the state's 24-hour snowfall record of 62.0 inches set at Thompson Pass on 28-29 December 1955. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)
20 March 1986...A wind gust of 173 mph was recorded in the Cairngorm Mountains, Scotland, the highest ever recorded in the United Kingdom. (The Weather Doctor)
22 March 1888...The morning's low temperature at Chicago, IL dipped to one degree below zero, the latest sub zero Fahrenheit reading in the Windy City's history. (The Weather Doctor)
23 March 1912...Residents of Kansas City, MO began to dig out from a storm that produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours . The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm of modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year, Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe, KS received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th) (Intellicast) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)
24 March 1993...What was to be called "the winter of the return of the big snows" continued to set records. Boston, MA had 8.6 inches of snow on this day to push its monthly total to 38.9 inches that set a new March monthly snowfall record. The old record was 33.0 inches set in 1916. Boston's seasonal snowfall total now stood at 81.7 inches, the third snowiest winter season on record. (Intellicast)
25 March 1914...Society Hill, SC was buried under 18 inches of snow, establishing a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
25 March 1975...The town of Sandberg reported a wind gust to 101 mph, a record for the state of California. (The Weather Channel)

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