DataStreme ECS WEEK TWELVE: 16-20 April 2012

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Celebrate Earth Day -- Next Sunday (22 April 2012) is the 42nd Earth Day, first proposed by the late Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin in 1970 as a teach-in to heighten awareness of the environment. The Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has posted a website called "Gaylord Nelson and Earth Day: The Making of the Modern Environmental Movement" that highlights Senator Nelson and his idea became Earth Day. A government website provides links to various activities and resources planned for this week. In the Washington, DC metropolitan area, NASA scientists will conduct activities and have exhibits for three consecutive days (Friday-Sunday) on the National Mall and at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in nearby Greenbelt, MD. These activities are designed to show the public the agency's commitment to satellite monitoring and climate modeling. [NASA Earth Mission]
• National Park Week -- The US Department of the Interior's National Park Service has designated the week commencing on this coming Saturday (21-29 April 2012) as National Park Week. The focus for this year's observance is "Picture Yourself in a National Park." In observance of this event, free entry can be made to any of the 397 national parks in the system. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
• The centennial of the Titanic tragedy remembered -- In remembrance of the 100th anniversary of the RMS Titanic over this past weekend, NOAA has posted a website that contains descriptions of the agency's participation in the exploration of the wreck site and its role in the site's protection and preservation. [RMS Titanic 100 years later]
  A podcast called "Making Waves: Titanic, 100 Years Later (Part I)" was produced that contains an interview with the director of Maritime Heritage with the National Ocean Service's Office of National Marine Sanctuaries made in recognition of the 100th anniversary. This podcast represents the first half of a special two-part Titanic podcast. [NOAA's National Ocean Service]
• Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- Learn about phenology and the phenological network designed to study the effects of climate change on the seasonal growth of plants and the migration of animals in this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• National weather and climate reviewed for March 2012 -- Scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center recently reported that their analysis of preliminary data indicates March 2012 across the coterminous United States was the warmest March on record, which extends back to 1895 when comprehensive climate records became available nationwide. The monthly temperature averaged across the coterminous US for March 2012 was 8.6 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) average. Over half of the states (26) extending from the northern Plains to New England and south to the Gulf Coast also reported their highest statewide March temperatures in 118 years. Only Washington state had a temperature that was below average. March 2012 was also slightly wetter than the 20th century average, with precipitation across the coterminous US one third of an inch above the 20th century average. States in the Pacific Northwest and the southern Plains had much above average precipitation. On the other hand, several of the Rocky Mountain States, the Northeast and Florida had drier than average conditions. Colorado had its driest March in 118 years of record. [NOAA National Climatic Data Center]
  As many as 15,000 daily temperature records were tied or broken across the eastern two-thirds of the nation in March. An animation shows the locations of each station that reported reaching daytime high temperature records (7755 records) and nighttime high low temperature records (7517 records) over the 31 days in March. [NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory]
• The 2011 hurricane season reviewed -- The 2011 hurricane season in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific is reviewed and compared to the more than 150 years of record keeping in the North Atlantic and the 40 years in the eastern North Pacific. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]
• March drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its March 2012 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately 17 percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of March, while two percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions. Meteorologists and water resource specialists are concerned with the expanding drought conditions that have been affecting many areas of the nation because of the recent mild and dry winter. [USA Today]
• "Tornado Alley" appears to be expanding -- A recent report prepared by a California-based private consulting firm suggests that the region identified as the traditional Tornado Alley centered across the Plains States should be expanded to include a large section of the Midwest and the Deep South. This expansion is suggested because the frequency and severity of tornadoes across the Midwest and South appears more widespread than commonly believed. The report has determined that Kansas, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana and Mississippi are the top five states with the most tornadoes between 1980 and 2009. However, some experts challenge these findings. [USA Today]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• Geosynchronous environmental satellite retired after 25 years --During the last week, NOAA moved GOES-7, one of NOAA's early geosynchronous environmental satellites, into a higher orbit (or greater distance from Earth) and retired it from service. This GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) spacecraft was launched in 1987 and was used to capture data that could be used to generate images of weather systems across North America. After some of its Earth-observing instruments became degraded, NOAA leased GOES-7 beginning in 1999 to the Pan-Pacific Education and Communication Experiments by Satellite (PEACESAT) program to provide communications for the Pacific islands. Currently, NOAA operates GOES-13 and GOES-15to provide continuous coverage of weather across the United States and the Western Hemisphere. [NOAA News] The last operational image obtained from GOES-7 in 1996 is highlighted. [ NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory]
• New miniature air sensors could help climate studies -- Researchers at the US Department of Energy's Sandia National Laboratories have developed an inexpensive and small-scale air sampler that they expect to use to collect atmospheric samples so as to improve computer climate models through increased monitoring of greenhouse gases. These samplers, which are the size of an ear plug, would sample air at various locations and at predetermined times, even from onboard sounding balloons launched from the Arctic. [Sandia Labs News Releases]
• An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
• Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes -- A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

• Animated visualization of a perpetually moving ocean system produced -- Using data from a variety of sources, a high-definition scientific animation was recently produced showing the movement of the surface ocean currents around the Earth from June 2005 through December 2007. The data used for this animation were collected from NASA satellites, from direct ocean measurements and from numerical ocean model developed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. [NASA JPL]
• Resurfacing urban areas could reduce carbon dioxide emissions -- Using a dataset of all global urban areas called the Global Rural and Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), researchers from Quebec's Concordia University have determined that increasing the surface albedo or reflectivity by one-tenth over urban areas would result in an offset in the carbon dioxide emissions by between 130 and 150 billion metric tons. These changes in surface albedo could occur by resurfacing pavements and rooftops in urban areas. The researchers also calculated that the changes in albedo potentially could result in a temperature decrease of approximately 0.07 Celsius degrees. [Institute of Physics]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

• Dead Sea has undergone large changes in water level over time -- Based upon their analysis of sediment cores extracted from sediments beneath the floor of the Dead Sea, researchers from Israel's Tel Aviv University and Hebrew University have found that the level of the Dead Sea has risen and fallen by several hundred meters over the last 200,000 years. The Dead Sea level was extremely low during the previous interglacial period approximately 120,000 years ago and near the end of the last Ice Age approximately 13,000 years. [American Friends of Tel Aviv University]

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE BIOSPHERE

• Changing climate can affect some plant communities in opposite ways -- Following a decade-long study of four grassland ecosystems in Arizona, researchers at Northern Arizona University have found that increased temperatures associated with changing climate appear to have caused plant communities to initially thrive, but then begin to deteriorate quickly after several years. [National Science Foundation News]
• Adaptive capacity of reef corals to changing climate may be widespread -- Scientists at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science claim that many species of reef-building corals appear to be capable of adapting to warming waters by hosting a variety of algal types that exhibit different sensitivities to environmental stress. [ Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Large summertime temperature variations may increase mortality risks -- A study conducted at the Harvard School of Public Health suggests that increases in day-to-day changes in summer temperature by as little as one Celsius degree may shorten life expectancy for those elderly people with chronic medical conditions, possibly resulting in thousands of additional deaths each year. [Harvard School of Public Health]
• Drastic changes are needed to curb rise in nitrous oxide -- A researcher from the Woods Hole Research Center warns that meat consumption in developed countries would have to be cut by 50 percent per person by 2050 in order to reduce atmospheric emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O), one of the most potent greenhouse gases, in accordance with the recommendations set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). [Woods Hole Research Center]
• Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]
• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
2. The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

• 16 April 1975...A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake, OR, establishing a state record. (Intellicast)
• 16 April 2007...An intense nor'easter raging along the New England Coast caused the barometric pressure reading at Albany, NY to fall to 28.84 inches of mercury (976.68 mb), the lowest barometric pressure reading ever recorded in April in the Empire State's capital city. (The Weather Doctor)
• 17 April 1948...A ten-minute deluge dumped 34 mm (1.34 inches) of rain on Tauranga, the wettest 10 minutes ever recorded on New Zealand. (The Weather Doctor)
• 17 April 1997...The Red River of the North crested at Fargo, ND, with a record crest of 39.6 ft, which is 22.6 ft above flood stage. This record flood, produced by several major winter storms, heavy spring rain, rapid snow melt, and ice jams, was responsible for at least 11 deaths (7 in North Dakota and 4 in Minnesota) and tremendous property damage along with large scale evacuations of residents from the Grand Forks metropolitan area. Dikes along the river gave way. Overall damage and cleanup costs have been estimated to range from $1 to $2 billion in Grand Forks, where a portion of the downtown burned as firefighters had a difficult time reaching the buildings due to the flood. [NCDC]
  Editor's Note: "History repeats!" During the second week of April 2001, the Red River at Grand Forks reached a river stage of 45 ft, or approximately 17 ft above flood stage and about 7 ft below the top of the levee. In 1997 this gauge measured a record 54.35 ft. EJH
• 18 April 2004...A record 182 consecutive days of no measurable precipitation began in San Diego, CA on this date, which ended on 17 October 2004 with 0.09 inches of rain. This new record broke the 181-day record set the previous year. Interestingly, the rain that followed the more recent dry spell resulted in October 2004 becoming San Diego's wettest month on record (4.98 inches). (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
• 19 April 1973...Glenrock, WY received 41 inches of snow in just 24 hours, and a storm total of 58 inches, to establish two state records. (18th-20th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 20 April 1880...Sacramento, CA had its heaviest 24-hour rainfall when 7.24 inches fell. (Intellicast)
• 20 April 1901...A spring storm produced unusually heavy snow in northeast Ohio. Warren received 35.5 inches in thirty-six hours, and 28 inches fell at Green Hill. Akron established April records of 15.6 inches in 24 hours, and 26.6 inches for the month. Pittsburgh, PA established April records of 12.7 inches in 24 hours, and 13.5 inches for the month. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 20 April 1984...A temperature of 106 degrees in Del Rio, TX set a new record high for April. (Intellicast)
• 20 April 1987...Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The high of 92 degrees at Memphis, TN was a record for April, and the high of 94 degrees at Little Rock, AR equaled their April record. (The National Weather Summary)
• 20 April 1989...Hot weather spread from the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains Region. Twenty-three cities reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 104 degrees at Tucson, AZ was an April record, and highs of 87 degrees at Provo, UT, 90 at Pueblo, CO, and 85 at Salt Lake City, UT, equaled April records. (The National Weather Summary)
• 21 April 1989...The temperature at Las Animas, CO soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record for April. Twenty-two cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Eight cities equaled or exceeded previous April records. Tucson, AZ experienced its fourth consecutive day of record heat with an afternoon high of 104 degrees, bringing the total number of days during the month of April 1989 to 11 when record high values had either been matched or broken. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary) (Intellicast)
• 21 April 1992...Two inches of snow fell at International Falls, MN, bringing the winter season snowfall to 106.7 inches and setting a new all-time record for the city. The old record was 104.7 inches set back in the 1988-89 winter season. (Intellicast) Editor's Note: As of Sunday, 19 April 2009, the seasonal snowfall accumulation for the 2008-09 winter has reached a record 124.0 inches. EJH
• 22 April 2003...Tropical Storm Ana formed in the southwestern North Atlantic Ocean, becoming the first Atlantic tropical storm (since records began in 1871) to form during the month April. Maximum sustained winds reached 50 mph. (The Weather Doctor)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2012, The American Meteorological Society.