WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK ELEVEN: 14-18 April 2014

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Free admission into the National Parks and Forests-- The National Park Service will waive entrance fees next weekend, 19-20 April 2014, which is the opening weekend of National Park Week. This fee waiver will cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks and monuments administered by the Park Service. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
Accessing the national climatographies -- NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has produced numerous climatographies that are quantitative descriptions of climate that include tables and charts portraying the characteristic values of selected climatic elements at a station or over an area. Some of these climatographies provide a variety of daily, monthly and annual normal climate data for agricultural, transportation and other interests. This week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth provides the links to selected climatographies from NCDC.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Winter storms provide minimal relief to drought-stricken California -- Maps comparing the precipitation and temperature during this recent meteorological winter (December 2013-February 2014) across the western third of the nation with the corresponding 1981-2010 averages reveal dry conditions and record warmth across a wide area. Several winter storms came onshore along the California coast, producing some welcome precipitation beginning in February, but well below seasonal averages. Unfortunately, the warm air caused most of the precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow. Experts with the California Nevada Applications Program warn that recovery before the end of the current wet season is slim. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Sites for monitoring soil moisture -- NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) recently provided an overview of several sites that can be used to access soil moisture data and maps across the United States. [NOAA National Climatic Data Center News]
Noctilucent clouds seen more often -- Scientists claim that their analysis of data from several satellites together with computer simulations indicates that the presence of noctilucent clouds has increased over subpolar areas between 40 and 50 degrees north latitude since 2002. These noctilucent or night-shining clouds are found at altitudes of 50 miles. One the satellites used to observe the noctilucent cloud is NASA's Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) that was launched in 2007. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]

CLIMATE FORCING

Success of US Clean Air Act seen from Greenland ice cores -- Scientists from the University of Washington have found that their analysis of ice cores from the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that the implementation of the US Clean Air Act of 1970 has changed the amount of acid precipitation preserved in the snow. The nitrate concentrations in the ice core records appear to provide a record of nitrogen oxide compounds NOx that help produce low-level ozone and smog. These nitrates and NOx concentrations in the ice cores leveled off in the 1970s. [University of Washington News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

An El Niño watch is in effect -- Forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recently posted an El Niño watch indicating a 50 percent chance that an El Niño event could develop by the upcoming Northern Hemisphere's summer (beginning in June and running through August) as above average sea-surface temperatures were developing across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during March 2014. The forecasters indicate that the current ENSO-neutral conditions should persist through Northern Hemisphere spring. (ENSO represents El Niño/Southern Oscillation). [NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
Hurricane season forecast -- Last week, the hurricane forecast team from Colorado State University headed by Phil Klotzbach released its April forecast of the 2014 North Atlantic hurricane season that officially begins on 1 June 2014. The team, which includes Professor William Gray, foresees a hurricane season that should be less active than the long-term (1981-2010) climatology for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. They feel that an El Niño event of moderate strength could develop in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during this upcoming summer and autumn seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, which would result in a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season. In addition, an anomalous cooling of the tropical Atlantic has occurred. In their initial April forecast, the forecasters call for nine named tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), with three potentially becoming hurricanes. One of these hurricanes could become severe, reaching category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. They also anticipate a below-above average probability of a major Atlantic hurricane making landfall somewhere along the coast of the coterminous US and in the Caribbean. [USA Today][The Tropical Meteorology Project]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Evolution of Climate Models

Climate scientists have been building increasingly sophisticated, mathematical climate models to serve two main purposes: test the sensitivity of the climate to altered conditions and simulate climate over time, either back into the past or forward into the future. The simplest, early type of climate model (zero dimensional) was the "energy balance model", which provides an average planetary temperature from incoming and outgoing radiation. A one-dimensional energy balance model determines the surface temperature from the energy balance at individual latitude belts.

More complex models involve the physical equations of motion (gas laws, thermodynamics and radiation interactions) subject to climate forcings, the boundary conditions of solar radiation, surface properties and atmospheric composition. As computers improved, models have included a three-dimensional oceanic circulation ("atmosphere-ocean coupling"), then interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere and geosphere, with climate feedback mechanisms involving the exchanges of heat and water. Finally, models have been able to incorporate the improved knowledge of the biogeochemical processes. Climate models calculate variables such as temperature at individual points within the three-dimensional grid of cells across the Earth's surface and vertically through the atmosphere, ocean, ice and land. A tradeoff exists between the number of grid points (the spatial resolution) and the number of numerical computations. Time and space accuracy costs increased computational time and expense.

The development of numerical weather prediction models during the 1960s and 1970s spurred the development of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate. One of the early atmospheric GCMs was developed at Princeton University's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). By the 1990s, comprehensive climate models were being perfected with three-dimensional oceanic circulation. Ultimately, the term GCM could be used to refer to a Global Climate Model that represents the major climate system components (atmosphere, ocean, land surface and polar ice) and their interactions. The Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research is one of the most comprehensive climate models currently available. This model has been used to determine the future temperature response for several scenarios concerning the release of greenhouse gases through the 21st century as proposed by the IPCC reports.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

General circulation models are generally [(less), (more)] sophisticated than energy balance models.
Increasing the spatial resolution of a global climate model causes the computational time to [(increase),(decrease),(remain the same)].

Historical Events:

14 April 1933...The state intensity record for snowfall for New Hampshire was set at Franklin Lake as 35 inches fell in 24 hours. (Intellicast)
14 April 1986...The world's heaviest hailstone, weighing 2.25 pounds, fell in the Gopalganj District of Bangladesh. This hailstone could have reached speeds in excess of 90 mph. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar) (Wikipedia)
15 April 1921...Two-mile high Silver Lake (elevation 10,220 ft) in Boulder County, Colorado received 75.8 in. of snow in 24 hrs, the heaviest 24-hr total of record for North America. The storm left a total of 87 in. in twenty-seven and a half hours. (David Ludlum)
15 April 1927...New Orleans, LA was drenched with 14.01 inches of rain, which established a 24-hour rainfall record for the state. This record was eclipsed in August 1962, when 22.00 inches fell in a 24-hour span. (The Weather Channel)
16 April 1975...A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake, OR, establishing a state record. (Intellicast)
16 April 2007...An intense nor'easter raging along the New England Coast caused the barometric pressure reading at Albany, NY to fall to 28.84 inches of mercury (976.68 mb), the lowest barometric pressure reading ever recorded in April in the Empire State's capital city. (The Weather Doctor)
17 April 1948...A ten-minute deluge dumped 34 mm (1.34 inches) of rain on Tauranga, the wettest 10 minutes ever recorded on New Zealand. (The Weather Doctor)
17 April 1997...The Red River of the North crested at Fargo, ND, with a record crest of 39.6 ft, which is 22.6 ft above flood stage. This record flood, produced by several major winter storms, heavy spring rain, rapid snow melt, and ice jams, was responsible for at least 11 deaths (7 in North Dakota and 4 in Minnesota) and tremendous property damage along with large scale evacuations of residents from the Grand Forks metropolitan area. Dikes along the river gave way. Overall damage and cleanup costs have been estimated to range from $1 to $2 billion in Grand Forks, where a portion of the downtown burned as firefighters had a difficult time reaching the buildings due to the flood. [NCDC]
Editor's Note: "History repeats!" During the second week of April 2001, the Red River at Grand Forks reached a river stage of 45 ft, or approximately 17 ft above flood stage and about 7 ft below the top of the levee. In 1997 this gauge measured a record 54.35 ft. EJH
18 April 2004...A record 182 consecutive days of no measurable precipitation began in San Diego, CA on this date, which ended on 17 October 2004 with 0.09 inches of rain. This new record broke the 181-day record set the previous year. Interestingly, the rain that followed the more recent dry spell resulted in October 2004 becoming San Diego's wettest month on record (4.98 inches). (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
19 April 1973...Glenrock, WY received 41 inches of snow in just 24 hours, and a storm total of 58 inches, to establish two state records. (18th-20th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
20 April 1880...Sacramento, CA had its heaviest 24-hour rainfall when 7.24 inches fell. (Intellicast)
20 April 1901...A spring storm produced unusually heavy snow in northeast Ohio. Warren received 35.5 inches in thirty-six hours, and 28 inches fell at Green Hill. Akron established April records of 15.6 inches in 24 hours, and 26.6 inches for the month. Pittsburgh, PA established April records of 12.7 inches in 24 hours, and 13.5 inches for the month. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
20 April 1984...A temperature of 106 degrees in Del Rio, TX set a new record high for April. (Intellicast)
20 April 1987...Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The high of 92 degrees at Memphis, TN was a record for April, and the high of 94 degrees at Little Rock, AR equaled their April record. (The National Weather Summary)
20 April 1989...Hot weather spread from the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains Region. Twenty-three cities reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 104 degrees at Tucson, AZ was an April record, and highs of 87 degrees at Provo, UT, 90 at Pueblo, CO, and 85 at Salt Lake City, UT, equaled April records. (The National Weather Summary)

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