WEEK FIVE: 23-27 February 2015

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Recalling the "Great Arctic Outbreak" of February 1899 -- The recent arctic outbreak that spread arctic air across most of the nation to the east of the Rockies was noteworthy, however, this event pales in comparison with the arctic air mass that spread across the nation during the first two weeks of February 1899. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center reviews the "Great Arctic Outbreak" of February 1899 when temperatures fell to 61 degrees below zero and to 2 degrees below zero in Tallahassee, FL, which remains the all-time record low for the Sunshine State. Ice formed on the Mississippi River near its mouth. Over 100 people lost their lives during this "Great Arctic Outbreak." [NOAA National Climatic Data Center News]
• A change in meteorological seasons -- Saturday, 28 February 2015, marks the end of meteorological winter in the Northern Hemisphere, which by convention, is the three-month interval of December, January and February. The following day (1 March 2015) represents the beginning of boreal meteorological spring, the three month interval of March, April and May. At the same time, summer in the Southern Hemisphere ends and autumn begins.
• Leap years and calendars -- This year (2015) is considered a "normal" year with 365 days, while 2012 and 2016 are "leap" years with 366 days. Since the Earth completes one orbit around the Sun in 365.2422 days, calendars based upon integer days must be adjusted every few years so that recognizable events, such as the occurrence of the vernal equinox, do not progress through the year. In the first century BC the Julian calendar was developed by Julius Caesar who decreed a calendrical reform with a 365-day year that involved the inclusion of an extra day to the end of February (the last month of the old Roman year). However, an additional reform was instituted by Pope Gregory XIII in 1572 that included the requirement that only those centurial years divisible evenly by 400 would be leap years, while the other centurial years (e.g., 1800 and 1900) would not.
  The National Climatic Data Center recommends that the climate normals for 28 February be used also for 29 February in a leap year.
• Monitoring the drought -- Read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth for information concerning assessing current drought conditions across the nation.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• Great Lakes ice cover expands -- An image made last week from the MODIS sensor onboard one of NASA's satellites indicated that the recent cold air that has swept across eastern North America has caused a rapid increase in ice cover on North America's Great Lakes to slightly more than 85 percent of the entire lake surface area. While this ice cover was greater than the seasonal average ice cover of 55 percent, it remains less than last season and 1979. Additional information on Great Lakes ice cover has been furnished by NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. [National Weather Service Forecast Office, Milwaukee/Sullivan]
  The recent arctic outbreak caused a large section of the famous Niagara Falls on the Niagara River between western New York State and Ontario to freeze to a greater extent than in recent years. [CNN News]
• Satellite image captures last week's arctic outbreak across eastern US -- An image made from data collected last week by the MODIS sensor on NASA's Terra satellite shows the snow that extended across a large area of the eastern half of the nation. This snow cover was associated with the arctic air mass that had spread across most areas to the east of the Rockies. The satellite also captured the extent of the ice cover on several of the Great Lakes. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]
• Review of global weather and climate for January 2015 -- Using preliminary data collected from the global network of surface weather stations, scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center have determined that the combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January 2015 was 1.39 Fahrenheit degrees (or 0.77 Celsius degrees) above the 20th-century (1901-2000) average, which makes last month the second highest global temperature for any January since global climate records began in 1880. Only January 2007 had a higher January temperature (1.55 Fahrenheit degrees or 0.86 Celsius degrees above the long-term average). The January 2015 land surface temperature was also the second highest in the 136-year record, while the global ocean surface temperature for January 2015 was third highest. The ocean surface remained warm despite continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation), where neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevail. [NOAA/NCDC State of the Climate]
  According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the Arctic sea ice was the third smallest monthly extent for any January since satellite surveillance began in 1979; the record smallest extent was in January 2011. On the other hand, Antarctic sea ice extent had reached the largest January sea ice extent on record early in the month, but began to decline rapidly late in the month.
  The extent of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover during January 2015 was the 22nd largest for the period of record that started in 1967. [NOAA/NCDC Global Snow & Ice]
  NCDC also provides a map showing the Global Significant Weather and Climate Events map for January 2015.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• Global sea ice cover decreases over last four decades -- Researchers from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center have found that despite increases in the extent of Antarctic sea ice, the large decreases in sea ice cover over the Arctic Ocean has decreased rapidly, which has resulted in a net reduction in the combined extent of sea ice at an average rate of 35,000 square kilometers (13,500 square miles) per year since 1979. They based their analysis upon microwave data collected by NASA and US Department of Defense satellites. [NASA Earth Observatory]
• New deep-space solar monitoring satellite launched -- NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite was successfully launched on 11 February 2015 from Cape Canaveral, FL and as of last week was on a 110-day journey to be placed in an orbit around Earth that would permit more reliable monitoring of solar wind conditions. This spacecraft would be the nation's first operational satellite that would orbit Earth at the point called the Lagrange point (or L1), a neutral gravity point between Earth and the Sun at a distance one million miles from Earth. The DSCOVR spacecraft will be placed alongside NASA's 17-year old Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) research satellite. The DSCOVR mission is a partnership between NOAA, NASA, and the US Air Force. In addition to space weather-monitoring instruments, the DSCOVR spacecraft is carrying two NASA Earth-observing instruments that will gather a measurements ranging from ozone and aerosol amounts, to changes in Earth's radiation. [NOAA News]
  Additional background information is available on the contributions that the DSCOVR mission could make to climate science. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• Seasonal weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their new national Seasonal Outlook for the next three months that consists of meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere (March-May). Specific details of their outlooks include:
  • Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, nearly the western third of the nation (consisting of the 48 coterminous states) extending from the Pacific coast across the Intermountain West should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for Spring 2015. The greatest probability of such an occurrence is to be found along the Pacific Northwest coast. Conversely, sections of the South Central States centered on Texas were considered to have a better than average chance of below average temperatures for these three upcoming months. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the nation would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
    Their precipitation outlook calls for sections of the Pacific Northwest to have a better than even chance of below average precipitation for Spring 2015. The southern and central Rockies along with adjacent sections of the Great Basin and the southern high Plains were considered to be under a better than even chance of above average precipitation. South Florida and other areas in the Southeast were also considered to be under a good chance of a wet spring. Elsewhere, a large area of the coterminous states should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for meteorological spring.
    A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that chances for the development of a a El Niño event were possible through the Northern Hemisphere's meteorological spring (March-May), with a possible return to the current ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation), where neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevail. A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
    
  • Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-February through May 2015. Their outlook calls for persistence of the extensive drought conditions across New Mexico and Arizona to California and northward across Nevada and into interior Oregon along the West Coast. The Pacific Northwest that includes most of western Washington could also experience development of drought conditions. The northern Plains and Upper Midwest could also see the continuation or development of drought during this upcoming spring. On the other hand, sections of the southern and central Plains along with the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley could experience improvement in drought conditions, with a few areas possibly being removed from drought classification.
    Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

CLIMATE FORCING

• Solar Dynamics Observatory marks fifth anniversary -- NASA' Goddard Space Flight Center produced two videos of the detailed images of the Sun made from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft in honor of the fifth anniversary of SDO. These videos show massive explosions on the sun, made at several different wavelengths. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]
• Methane leaks from the nation's large natural gas fields found close to federal estimates -- Researchers with Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)at the University of Colorado, Boulder and their colleagues who conducted airborne measurements of methane above three of the nation's major natural gas basins in South (Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas) and in the East (Pennsylvania) have found that the methane leaking from the gas production equipment is in line with federal estimates. They determined that the overall leak rate from these basins was approximately one percent of the gas production from these gas fields. [ NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research News]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

• Atlantic overturning circulation decreased at end of last Ice Age -- Scientists from Oregon State University and the University of Connecticut have found evidence from 24 deep ocean sediment cores that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) declined at the end of the last Ice Age. The AMOC represents a system of currents that carries warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic region. [Oregon State University News]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

• Higher global temperatures could increase ocean upwelling, but with an uncertain impact on fisheries -- Researchers from Oregon State University and Northeastern University report that increases in global temperatures due to changing climate may increase upwelling in several of the ocean currents in the various ocean basins around the global especially in subpolar and polar latitudes by the end of the 21st century. Major changes in marine biodiversity could result. Upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water may be enhance some of the world's most important fisheries, but the overall impact is uncertain. [Oregon State University News]
• Major coral bleaching foreseen over next several months -- NOAA's Coral Reef Watch program recently released a four-month bleaching outlook that foresees major coral bleaching that would occur across the western Pacific and Indian Oceans through May 2015. This region would include American Samoa, Samoa, Western Australia, and Indonesia. This major bleaching event would be due to relatively warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and could portend other major coral bleaching events in other ocean basins worldwide during this upcoming year. [NOAA News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Keeping your cool!

In order to survive, humans need to maintain a nearly constant internal core temperature that is within several degrees of 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Your internal temperature depends upon an energy balance involving the gain and loss of energy from radiation (incoming solar versus incoming and outgoing infrared radiation), sensible heat transfer (conduction and convection), latent heat of evaporation (respiration and perspiration) and the body's metabolic rate. This heat transfer depends upon the differences between skin temperature and the ambient air temperature of the surroundings. In addition, wind and atmospheric humidity can affect the rate of sensible and latent heat transfer. Problems arise when either too much or too little heat flows to or from the body, yielding hypothermia and hyperthermia (heat stress) conditions, respectively.

When the air temperature increases, heat flow from the body is often reduced. Heat flow can be increased to maintain stable temperatures involuntarily by thermoregulatory processes such as increased perspiration (sweating) and dilation of the blood vessels. Humans can also act to prevent hyperthermia by selecting lightweight and light colored clothes, as well as seeking of shade and well ventilated locations. Unfortunately, high atmospheric humidity that often accompanies high summer temperatures also reduces body heat loss since evaporative cooling by perspiration is suppressed. During the summer, the National Weather Service alerts the public of potentially dangerous combinations of high air temperature and atmospheric humidity levels by calculating the Heat Index.

Statistics kept by the National Weather Service reveals that heat (along with high humidity) is responsible for the greatest number of weather-related deaths across the nation during the 10-year period (2001-2010), with 115 fatalities occurring per year. By comparison, 116 fatalities per annum are caused by tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), 56 deaths per year are associated from tornadoes and 25 deaths annually caused by the cold (low temperatures). (Note: The large number of fatalities associated with the hurricanes of 2005, which totaled 1016 deaths in the US due primarily to Hurricane Katrina, has inflated the annual averages associated with tropical cyclones.) Furthermore, concern has been raised that during this century, more frequent and more severe heat waves due to global climate change could become more common, leading to a greater risk of hyperthermia and, ultimately, to higher morbidity rates.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Each week you will be asked to respond to two questions relating to that week's Concept of the Week topic. Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. The heat index is a function of air temperature and [(atmospheric humidity),(wind speed),(sunshine levels)].
2. The annual number of fatalities across the nation in the last ten years due to heat stress is approximately [(15),(60),(120)].

Historical Events:

• 23 February 1998...Otis, OR recorded its 79 straight day of rain, the longest in the contiguous US. The streak began on 7 December 1997 (The Weather Doctor)
• 24 February 1905...The temperature at Valley Head, AL fell to 18 degrees below zero, which was the lowest temperature ever recorded in Alabama until January 1966. (Intellicast)
• 24-26 February 1910...Parts of Washington State were in the midst of a storm that produced 129 inches of snow at Laconia between the 24^th and the 26^th, a single storm record for the state. A series of storms, which began on the 23^rd, led to a deadly avalanche on the first of March. By late on the 28^th, the snow had changed to rain, setting the stage for disaster. (The Weather Channel)
• 24 February 1994...The Crystal Mountain ski resort in Washington State recorded 65 inches of snow in a 24-hour period, the state record for 24-hour snowfall. (Intellicast)
• 25 February 1914...South Carolina had its biggest snowstorm in modern history, as 18 inches fell at Society Hill. (Intellicast)
• 25 February 1922...The temperature at Los Angeles, CA soared to 92 degrees to establish a record for the month of February. (David Ludlum)
• 26 February 1969...Both Portsmouth, NH and Portland, ME set new single storm snowfall records with 33.8 inches and 26.9 inches, respectively. (Intellicast)
• 27 February 1717...What was perhaps the greatest snow in New England history commenced on this date. During a ten-day period, a series of four snowstorms dumped three feet of snow upon Boston, and the city was snowbound for two weeks. Up to six feet of snow was reported farther to the north, and drifts covered many one-story homes. (David Ludlum)
• 27 February 1988...Rapid City, SD established a February record with an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 28 February 1900...A massive storm spread record snows from Kansas to New York State. The 18.7 inches of snow measured at Topeka, KS in 24 hours was the city's greatest 24-hour snowfall on record. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
• 28-29 February 1964...A world 12-hour rainfall record was set at Belouve, La Reunion Island in the western Indian Ocean when 52.76 inches of rain fell. World records for 9 hours and 18.5 hours were also set with 42.79 and 66.49 inches, respectively. (Accord's Weather Calendar) (The Weather Doctor)
• 28 February 1972...Unseasonably mild weather prevailed throughout the central US. Temperatures soared to 83 degrees in Kansas City, MO, setting an all-time high record for the month of February. (Intellicast)
• 28 February 1988...Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S. The afternoon high of 71 degrees at Portland, OR was a February record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 29 February 1964...Thompson Pass, AK finished the month with 346.1 inches of snow, a record monthly total for the state of Alaska. (The Weather Channel)
• 1 March 1910...The deadliest avalanche of record in the U.S. thundered down the mountains near Wellington Station, WA sweeping three huge locomotive train engines and some passenger cars off the tracks, over the side and into a canyon, burying them under tons of snow. This train was snowbound on the grade leading to Stevens Pass. The avalanche claimed the lives of more than 100 people. The station house at Wellington was also swept away. (The Weather Channel)
• 1 March 1993...4.5 inches of snow fell at Dodge City, KS on this date to raise its seasonal snowfall total to 58.8 inches. This set a new all-time seasonal snowfall record for the city. The old record was 57.5 inches set back in the winter of 1911-12. (Intellicast)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2015, The American Meteorological Society.