DataStreme ECS WEEK ELEVEN: 13-17 April 2015

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2015 Campaign is underway -- The fourth in the series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2015 continues through Saturday 18 April. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Leo in the Northern Hemisphere and Crux in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. In addition to the 9-18 April campaign, the other two GLOBE at Night campaigns during the first half of 2015 are on 9-18 May and 8-17 June. [GLOBE at Night]
• Nation's environmental satellite program launched 55 years ago -- Wednesday, 1 April 2015, marked the 55th anniversary of the successful launch of the first polar orbiting weather satellite, TIROS I (Television Infrared Observation Satellite I), by NASA from Cape Canaveral, FL. Although it remained operational for two and a half months, this first spacecraft dedicated to taking images of the atmospheric weather systems eventually led to a world-wide meteorological satellite information system. [NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service News Archive]
• Free admission into the National Parks and Forests-- The National Park Service will waive entrance fees next weekend, 18-19 April 2015, which is the opening weekend of National Park Week. This fee waiver will cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks and monuments administered by the Park Service. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
• Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• March 2015 weather and climate for the nation reviewed -- Scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data collected during the month of March 2015. When averaged across the contiguous United States, the monthly temperature for March 2015 was 45.4 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 3.9 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century (1901-2000) average. Therefore, this past month was the 12th warmest March since a comprehensive climate network began in 1895. Nearly all the states in the western half of the nation, along with most of the Gulf Coast States experienced above to much above average statewide temperatures. California, Oregon and Washington had their second warmest on record. On the other hand, the states of New England and bordering the Great Lakes had below to much below average statewide temperatures. Massachusetts and Rhode Island were in the lowest 10 March temperatures for the last 121 years.
  The average precipitation across the contiguous US for March 2015 was 2.08 inches, which was 0.43 inches below the 20th-century average. Equivalently, last month's nationwide precipitation tied March 1971 for the 19th driest March since 1895. More than half the states (28) experienced below to much below average March precipitation, especially those states in the Plains and sections of the Midwest. The statewide average March precipitation for Nebraska and South Dakota were second lowest, while California, Iowa, Michigan, New York, Vermont and Wyoming also ranked within the top ten driest March totals in 121 years. In contrast, several states across the South, Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic had above average precipitation, with Texas having its fourth wettest March on record.
  Data analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab indicate the March snow cover extent across the contiguous US was the fifth smallest areal extent for the 49-year period of record across the 48 states. [State of the Climate NOAA/NCDC]
  NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCDC for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCDC]
• March national drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its March 2015 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately 11 percent of the contiguous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of March, while approximately one percent of the nation had severely to extremely wet conditions at that time.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• The 17-year TRMM Rainfall Mission draws to a close -- The joint NASA-Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) ended last week after a 17-year career as its instruments were turned off because the spacecraft had depleted its fuel reserves. The TRMM spacecraft, which was launched into a low orbit of 350 km above the Earth's surface in 1997, was designed for a planned mission of only a few years to observe precipitation rates over the tropics and subtropics, especially over the data-sparse oceans. The spacecraft carried five onboard sensors: the Precipitation Radar (PR), first precipitation radar flown in space that permitted generation of 3-D radar imagery; The Microwave Imager (TMI), which provided the highest resolution images of rainfall for that time; the Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS); the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument. The TRMM data collected over the mission's 17 years of operation permitted scientists to explore weather events, climate, and Earth's water cycle. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center] The spacecraft was expected to descend into the Earth's atmosphere and essentially be destroyed upon reentry in mid June 2015. [NASA Precipitation Measurement Missions]

CLIMATE FORCING

• Spring starts quietly in Tornado Alley -- Relatively few tornadoes were reported across the United States during the month of March 2015, the first month of meteorological spring and typically the beginning of tornado season across the nation's midsection. Meteorologists with the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) also noted that the less than ten percent of the average number of tornado watches were issued for the first two and one half months of 2015. The below average number of tornadoes through mid-March appears to be due to an anomalously persistent atmospheric flow pattern that featured cold weather across the East and warm weather across the West. [NOAA Climate.gov News] Recent studies at Columbia University's Earth Institute indicate that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions can also play a part in enhancing or suppressing tornado numbers by shifting the location and strength of the jet stream across the United States. [Earth Institute - Columbia University News]
• Pool of warm water in Pacific linked to recent "weird" weather across US -- Researchers at the University of Washington and their colleagues point to the existence of a long-lived "blob" of warm water in the North Pacific Ocean off the US West Coast since late 2013 as being responsible for a variety of unusual weather across the nation that include unseasonably warm and dry weather across the Western states along with cold and record snow across the Northeast. The warm blob originated as a nearly circular water mass that was approximately 1000 miles in horizontal extent, 300-feet deep and had a temperature that was between two and seven Fahrenheit degrees above normal. Over time, this blob had elongated and remained offshore of the coast, extending from Mexico north to Alaska. [University of Washington Today]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• An El Niño Advisory remains in effect -- Forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recently continued their El Niño Advisory indicating an approximately 70 percent chance that an El Niño event will continue through the upcoming Northern Hemisphere's summer (beginning in June and running through August) as above average sea-surface temperatures were developing across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during March 2015 that were indicative of weak El Niño conditions. In addition, they also felt that a 60 percent chance that the El Niño would continue through boreal autumn (September-November 2015). [NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
  An ENSO blog was written by a CPC researcher that details the thinking that went into the preparation of the recently released April El Niño forecast. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
  Another ENSO blog written by a senior scientist at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory describes how the scientific forecasting of El Niño events has evolved over the last 40 years following the memorable 1972-73 El Niño that triggered a collapse of the Peruvian anchovy fishery. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
• Hurricane season forecast -- Last week, the hurricane forecast team from Colorado State University headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach released its April forecast of the 2015 North Atlantic hurricane season that officially begins on 1 June 2015. The team, which includes Professor William Gray, foresees this upcoming hurricane season as being one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century. They feel that an El Niño event of moderate strength could develop in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during this upcoming summer and autumn seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, which would result in a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season. In addition, the waters of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic remain relatively cool. In their initial April forecast, the forecasters call for seven named tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), with three potentially becoming hurricanes. One of these hurricanes could become severe, reaching category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. They also anticipate a below-average probability of a major Atlantic hurricane making landfall somewhere along the coast of the coterminous US and in the Caribbean. [The Tropical Meteorology Project]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

• Water is found across the solar system and beyond -- Scientists who are involved with NASA missions designed to explore our solar system and regions of space beyond the solar system have been finding signatures of water in many locations including in the atmospheres of planets in other solar systems and in giant interstellar clouds. The presence of water is a key in the search for habitable planets and life beyond Earth. A review of some of the recent results of NASA's exploration of the solar system and beyond are described. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
2. The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

• 13 April 1955...The town of Axis, AL was deluged with 20.33 inches of rain in 24 hours establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)
• 13 April 1985...The high temperature of 86 degrees for this date at Medford, OR was the highest ever so early in the spring season. (Intellicast)
• 14 April 1933...The state intensity record for snowfall for New Hampshire was set at Franklin Lake as 35 inches fell in 24 hours. (Intellicast)
• 14 April 1986...The world's heaviest hailstone, weighing 2.25 pounds, fell in the Gopalganj District of Bangladesh. This hailstone could have reached speeds in excess of 90 mph. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar) (Wikipedia)
• 15 April 1921...Two-mile high Silver Lake (elevation 10,220 ft) in Boulder County, Colorado received 75.8 in. of snow in 24 hrs, the heaviest 24-hr total of record for North America. The storm left a total of 87 in. in twenty-seven and a half hours. (David Ludlum)
• 15 April 1927...New Orleans, LA was drenched with 14.01 inches of rain, which established a 24-hour rainfall record for the state. This record was eclipsed in August 1962, when 22.00 inches fell in a 24-hour span. (The Weather Channel)
• 16 April 1975...A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake, OR, establishing a state record. (Intellicast)
• 16 April 2007...An intense nor'easter raging along the New England Coast caused the barometric pressure reading at Albany, NY to fall to 28.84 inches of mercury (976.68 mb), the lowest barometric pressure reading ever recorded in April in the Empire State's capital city. (The Weather Doctor)
• 17 April 1948...A ten-minute deluge dumped 34 mm (1.34 inches) of rain on Tauranga, the wettest 10 minutes ever recorded on New Zealand. (The Weather Doctor)
• 17 April 1997...The Red River of the North crested at Fargo, ND, with a record crest of 39.6 ft, which is 22.6 ft above flood stage. This record flood, produced by several major winter storms, heavy spring rain, rapid snow melt, and ice jams, was responsible for at least 11 deaths (7 in North Dakota and 4 in Minnesota) and tremendous property damage along with large scale evacuations of residents from the Grand Forks metropolitan area. Dikes along the river gave way. Overall damage and cleanup costs have been estimated to range from $1 to $2 billion in Grand Forks, where a portion of the downtown burned as firefighters had a difficult time reaching the buildings due to the flood. [NCDC]
  Editor's Note: "History repeats!" During the second week of April 2001, the Red River at Grand Forks reached a river stage of 45 ft, or approximately 17 ft above flood stage and about 7 ft below the top of the levee. In 1997 this gauge measured a record 54.35 ft. EJH
• 18 April 2004...A record 182 consecutive days of no measurable precipitation began in San Diego, CA on this date, which ended on 17 October 2004 with 0.09 inches of rain. This new record broke the 181-day record set the previous year. Interestingly, the rain that followed the more recent dry spell resulted in October 2004 becoming San Diego's wettest month on record (4.98 inches). (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
• 19 April 1973...Glenrock, WY received 41 inches of snow in just 24 hours, and a storm total of 58 inches, to establish two state records. (18th-20th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2015, The American Meteorological Society.