WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

WEEK TWO: 1-5 February 2016

ITEMS OF INTEREST

High-quality maps of February temperature and precipitation normals across US available -- The PRISM Climate Group at Oregon State University's website has prepared high-resolution maps depicting the normal maximum, minimum and precipitation totals for February and other months across the 48 coterminous United States for the current 1981-2010 climate normals interval. These maps, with a 800-meter resolution, were produced using the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) climate mapping system.
February weather calendar for a city near you -- The Midwestern Regional Climate Center maintains an interactive website that permits the public to produce a ready to print weather calendar for any given month of the year, such as February, at any of approximately 270 weather stations around the nation. (These stations are NOAA's ThreadEx stations.) The entries for each day of the month includes: Normal maximum temperature, normal minimum temperature, normal daily heating and cooling degree days, normal daily precipitation, record maximum temperature, record minimum temperature, and record daily precipitation; the current normals for 1981-2010.
Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2016 Campaign resumes -- The second in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2016 will commence on Monday (1 February) and continue through 10 February. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Orion in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next series in the 2016 campaign is scheduled for 1-10 March 2016. [GLOBE at Night]
Groundhog Day and climatology -- This Tuesday (2 February 2016) is Groundhog Day, celebrated by many communities around the nation with much fanfare. According to legend, if the groundhog emerged from its burrow after hibernation on this day and saw its shadow, it would return to hibernation, thereby indicating six more weeks of wintry weather. Most people assume that a converse holds true - if no shadow were seen, an early spring should be expected. According to a Groundhog Day report prepared by the National Centers for Environmental Information (formerly, the National Climatic Data Center), no convincing statistical evidence appears to support this belief of the prognostic capabilities of the groundhog. The only point that can be considered to have any meteorological significance is that cloud free weather conditions would be responsible for allowing a woodchuck or human to cast a shadow. Such cloud-free weather conditions in early February typically are associated with a cold mass of air that would usually send all but the hardiest resident back into a nice warm shelter. This legend also coincides with an ancient late winter festival, since next Tuesday is the customary halfway point of the astronomical winter season (the point is closer to early Thursday, 4 February 2016). To the ancients, this date was significant because it was one of the four Cross Quarter Days, marking an important astronomical milestone. The day is located essentially at the point half way between the winter solstice, marking the occurrence of the shortest length of daylight in the Northern Hemisphere (21 December 2015) and the spring equinox (19 March 2016), when equal lengths of daylight and darkness occur once again. So regardless of what your local groundhog "predicts" the beginning of astronomical spring is still six weeks away.
Climatology of Super Bowls updated -- Next Sunday (7 February 2016) is "Super Sunday" when the Denver Broncos will play the Carolina Panthers in the National Football League's Super Bowl L (or 50) at the Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, a suburb south of San Francisco, CA.
The service climatologist for the Southeast Regional Climate Center has provided an updated listing of the Super Bowl Weather & Climate 1967-2015. This annotated list contains the "climatology" for game day that includes the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, the 24-hour precipitation and the 24-hour snowfall along with comments on the weather observed in the host city on "Super Sunday" for each of the previous 49 Super Bowl games.
During the last 49 years the Super Bowl has been played in at least 15 different metropolitan areas and in 24 different stadiums. Furthermore, one-third (16) of these games have been played indoors. After years of restricting the selected site to relatively warm cities (where temperatures need to be at least 50 degrees Fahrenheit) or at domed stadiums, NFL officials scheduled the 2014 Super Bowl for the outdoor MetLife Stadium at East Rutherford, NJ, the home of the New York Giants and Jets that is a cold weather site. That game was played before wintry weather reached northern New Jersey.
A detailed daily climatology for this upcoming Super Sunday at nearby San Jose, CA has also been prepared based upon records that extend back to 1893.
An article appearing in the San Jose Mercury-News at the end of the third week of January was considering the possibility of rainy weather associated with the current El Niño event greeting fans coming to Super Bowl 50. [San Jose Mercury-News]
Coloring book helps elementary school students learn global climate system basics -- The Midwestern Regional Climate Center has developed a fun way for students in grades 3-5 to learn the basics of the global climate system with a coloring book called Color and Understand the Global Climate System that can be downloaded and printed. [Midwestern Regional Climate Center]
One for the record books -- If you would like more background information concerning how various temperature and precipitation extremes are identified as record events from a station's climate record, please read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Ranking the recent January 2016 blizzard in the Northeast -- Using weather data calculated by NOAA's National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), the recent winter storm that produced heavy snow and blizzard conditions across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England States was determined to be a Category 4 or "Crippling" winter storm on NOAA's Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (or, NESIS). The five-tier scale of NESIS characterizes and ranks Northeast snowstorms according to: how much snow falls (at least 10 inches); the size of the area impacted; and the population of the impacted area. With a NESIS value of 7.66, this 22-24 January 2016 storm was ranked fourth among the most powerful winter storms to impact the Northeast U.S. since 1950; the March 1993 "Storm of the Century" had the highest NESIS value of 13.20. [NOAA News] Additional information on the Blizzard of 2016 is available from NCEI including the discussion of the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI). [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CLIMATE FORCING

Mercury levels in rainfall found to be rising across sections of North America -- Researchers from several US research universities, the US Geological Survey, the Meteorological Service of Canada and the Electric Power Research Institute recently reported that increased levels of mercury were being found in the rain that was , especially across the central regions of the North American continent. These increases appear to be consistent with increased emissions of mercury into the atmosphere from coal-burning plants in Asia, followed by the long-distance transport to North America by upper atmospheric winds. In addition, some locations along the East Coast had mercury levels in rainfall have been trending steadily downward over the past 20 years, which would be consistent with decreased emissions in North America. The researchers based their conclusions from analysis of long-term trends in the mercury concentration levels in rainfall and other forms of precipitation at monitoring stations in North America since 1997. [University of California, Santa Cruz Newscenter]
Rainfall amounts could be affected by phase of the moon -- Researchers at the University of Washington claim that the phase of the moon could cause slight changes in the amount of rainfall because the changes in the tidal force exerted by the Moon could create nearly imperceptible bulges in the Earth's atmosphere that would result in a slight oscillation in air pressure. Satellite data over the tropics reveal a slight reduction in rainfall when the Moon is directly overhead or underfoot. [University of Washington News]
Fertilizing oceans to mitigate climate warming may not be as effective as thought -- An international team of scientists who have collected analyzed seafloor sediments from the central equatorial Pacific Ocean have found evidence that fertilizing the oceans with iron as one of the proposed ways designed to mitigate climate warming may not necessarily work as envisioned. Fertilizing the ocean by iron was intended to produce more carbon-consuming algae, but adding iron may not necessarily remove as much carbon from the atmosphere as previously thought. [The Earth Institute, Columbia University News Archive]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Canadian national seasonal outlook issued -- Forecasters with Environment Canada issued their outlooks for temperature and precipitation across Canada for February, March and April of 2016, which represent the remainder of meteorological winter (February) and the first two months of meteorological spring (March and April). Their temperature outlook indicates that essentially all of Canada could experience above average or normal (1981-2010) temperatures for these three months.
The Canadian precipitation outlook for February through April 2016 indicates that western and northern sections of Canada, including British Columbia, the northern Prairie Provinces and the Yukon, Northwest and Nunavut Territories could experience above average precipitation for the next three months. Likewise, eastern sections of Canada, including the St. Lawrence Valley in Quebec, the Maritime Provinces and Labrador could also have above average precipitation. Conversely, below normal precipitation was projected for only a few widely scattered sections, primarily in the southern Canadian Rockies, the region east of Hudson Bay and the Canadian Arctic. including the Nunavut Territory and along the Atlantic coast in Labrador and the Maritime Provinces.
[Note for comparisons and continuity with the three-month seasonal outlooks of temperature and precipitation generated for the continental United States and Alaska by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, one would need to use Environment Canada's probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation.]
Gains in fraction of electric power from wind and solar foreseen -- Researchers from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory and the University of Colorado-Boulder have recently released a report indicating that by 2030, electric energy obtained from wind and the Sun could exceed that obtained from fossil fuels. The researchers obtained their forecast from a sophisticated mathematical model that evaluated several future cost, demand, generation and transmission scenarios. Improvements in transmission infrastructure were found to help weather-driven renewable resources supply most of the nation's electricity 15 years from now at costs similar to current costs. Furthermore, national greenhouse gas emissions from power production could be slashed by up to 78 percent below 1990 levels within 15 years while meeting increased demand. [NOAA News]
Enormous blades could result in more offshore energy for US -- Scientists at the US Department of Energy's Sandia National Laboratories, several universities and private companies are conducting research on an extreme-scale Segmented Ultralight Morphing Rotor (SUMR), a 50-meter long blade that would eventually be upgraded to 200-meter length blades for use on low-cost offshore 50-MWwind turbines. These wind turbines could provide electric power to the United States. requiring a rotor blade more than 650 feet (200 meters) long, two and a half times longer than any existing wind blade. [Sandia National Laboratory New Releases]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Probes are made into uncertainties in past climates based upon tree-ring reconstructions-- Researchers from the US, the United Kingdom and New Zealand claim current approaches to reconstructing past climate by using tree-ring data need to be improved. The team reconstructed summer temperature in Northern Sweden between 1496 and 1912 from ring measurements of 121 Scots Pine trees. They examined the statistical methods and procedures commonly used to reconstruct historic climate variables from tree-ring data. [University of Otago News]

CLIMATE MODELING

Another view of the historic Mid-Atlantic winter storm -- The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) run on the supercomputer at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has produced a high-resolution simulation of the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) emanating from the top of the atmosphere during the late January blizzard that crippled the Middle Atlantic States. A 30-second animation of the model output statistics from this simulation is available. [NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

REPORTS FROM THE FIELD --

A request: If you have some climate-related experience that you would like to share with other DataStreme Earth's Climate System participants, please send them to the email address appearing at the bottom of this document for possible inclusion in a News file. Thank you. EJH

Concept of the Week: Start of the Growing Season

As we approach meteorological spring, the increases in daylength and air temperature across many areas of the nation make backyard gardeners as well as farmers contemplate the start of the growing season. For many crops, the soil has to be tilled and prepared for planting before the growing season really commences. Soil temperatures and moisture levels often influence when fieldwork can start.

The term growing season depends upon the plant species, as well as the climate of the locale, meaning that several ways can be used to define the growing season. In most mid latitude climates, the growing season is often used synonymously with the frost-free season, loosely defined as the length of time between the last killing frost in spring and the first killing frost in the autumn. The National Centers for Environmental Information (formerly, National Climatic Data Center) has produced climatological tables that identify those median dates (a 50 percent occurrence) during spring and fall when the temperature at a station falls to 36, 32, 28, 24 or 20 degrees Fahrenheit for the last time in spring or the first time in autumn. While the exact time span that a plant survives would vary by plant type, the growing season for climatological purposes is often related to the interval when the daily minimum temperature remains above 32 degrees.

Across the continental U.S. the typical lengths of the frost free regions range from about 120 days along the Canadian border to about 220 days in Oklahoma and north Texas and over 320 days in southern sections of Florida and California. Mountainous areas provide a complex pattern, with some higher elevations having lengths that are less than 100 days. By accessing the NOWData (NOAA Online Weather Data) feature on the Climate page of your local National Weather Service, you can find the "first/last dates" for various climate reporting stations around your area.

Many crops, especially vegetables and fruits, are sensitive to relatively low air temperatures. In spring, when many crops are emerging and in various stages of development they are more vulnerable to air temperatures near 32 degrees Fahrenheit. But by fall, many of these plants have become hardy. Generally speaking, a spring killing frost would occur when the plant has become well emerged and the temperature around the plant would fall to a point that would kill most tender vegetation. Sometimes, other terminology is used.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

Many emerging crops would succumb if the spring air temperatures fell to [(36),(33),(28)] degrees.
The frost-free season in states bordering Canada would probably be about [(60),(90),(120)] days.

Historical Events:

1 February 1985...The temperature at Gavial, NM dropped to a state record low of 50 degrees below zero. The state record low temperature in Colorado of 60 degrees below zero was tied at Maybell. A station at Peter's Sink, UT reported a temperature of 69 degrees below zero, which set the all-time state record. (NCDC)
2 February 1951...The record low temperature for the state of Indiana was set at Greensburg when the mercury fell to 35 degrees below zero; this record was broken in January, 1994. (Intellicast)
2 February 1952...The only tropical storm of record to hit the U.S. in February moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and a cross southern Florida. It produced 60-mph winds, and two to four inches of rain. (2nd-3rd) (The Weather Channel)
2 February 1996...Extremely cold air covered the north-central U.S. Tower, MN dropped to 60 degrees below zero to set a new state low temperature record. International Falls, MN and Glasgow, MT both set records for the month of February with 45 and 38 below zero, respectively. Rochester, MN dipped to 34 below zero for its lowest temperature in 45 years. Green Bay, WI only reached 16 degrees below zero for the high temperature for the day, which is its lowest high temperature on record in February. Meanwhile, farther to the east, heavy snow fell across the mid-Atlantic region. Eighteen inches of snow was recorded at Rehoboth Beach, DE and 17 inches fell at Solomons, MD. Charleston, WV recorded 6.8 inches of snow for the day to bring its seasonal snowfall to 80.7 inches, the city's snowiest winter ever -- and still two months of winter to go! (Intellicast)
3 February 1917...Downtown Miami, FL reported an all-time record low of 27 degrees. Miami weather records date to 1911. (David Ludlum)
3 February 1947...The temperature at Tanacross, AK plunged to a record 75 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) At Snag, Yukon Territory, the temperature fell to 81 degrees below zero, North America's lowest recorded official temperature (The Weather Doctor)
3 February 1996...Extremely cold weather persisted. Des Moines, IA dipped to 26 degrees below zero to tie its February low and broke its record for most consecutive hours below zero, which ended up being 132 hours. Milwaukee, WI also tied its record for lowest February temperature with 26 degrees below zero. The temperature at Tower, MN fell to 60 degrees below zero to set a new all-time state minimum temperature record for the Gopher State. The state record low was also tied in Iowa with Elkader reporting a frigid 47 below zero. Elizabeth, IL recorded 35 degrees below to tie the state lowest temperature record; this record has since been broken in January 1999. (Intellicast) (NCDC)
3 February 1997...Centralia, WA set the state record for consecutive days of measurable precipitation at 55 between 10 November 1996 and 3 February 1997. (The Weather Doctor)
4 February 1996...Frigid temperatures continued over the northern US and spread southward to the Gulf Coast. A cooperative observer near Couderay, WI reported a temperature of 55 degrees below zero, which set a new record low for the Badger State. This reading is also the lowest temperature ever recorded east of the Mississippi River. Amasa, MI checked in with 51 degrees below zero, which tied the record low for Michigan. Tulsa, OK had a morning low of 11 degrees below zero for its lowest temperature in 66 years. Muskegon, MI recorded an all-time low of 19 degrees below zero. La Crosse, WI completed it longest stretch of subzero temperatures ever (144 hours). The center of the frigid arctic high-pressure system moved over Louisiana, setting an all-time record high barometric pressure of 30.82 inches (1043.6 millibars) at Baton Rouge. (Intellicast)
5 February 1887...San Francisco, CA experienced its greatest snowstorm of record. Nearly four (3.7) inches were reported in downtown San Francisco, and the western hills of the city received seven inches. Excited crowds went on a snowball-throwing rampage. (David Ludlum)
5 February 1996...The "great arctic outbreak of '96" began to wind down, but not before one more frigid morning. Greene, RI reported a state record low temperature of 25 degrees below zero. (Intellicast)
6 February 1933...The temperature at Oimekon, Russia fell to 90 degrees (Fahrenheit), tying the previous lowest recorded temperature in Asia set in 1892. (The Weather Doctor)
6 February 1933...The highest reliably observed ocean wave was seen by crew of the US Navy oiler, USS Ramapo, in the North Pacific during the night on its way from Manila to San Diego. The wave was estimated (by triangulation) to have a height of 112 feet. Average winds at the time were 78 mph. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)
6 February 1978...A massive nor'easter buried the cities of the northeastern U.S. The Boston, MA area received 25 to 30 inches in "The Great New England Blizzard of '78" By the time the storm ended late on the 7th, Boston had 27.1 inches of new snow to set an all-time single storm snowfall record. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
7 February 1892...The lowest temperature ever recorded to that time in Asia was reported from Verkhoyansk, Russia with a 90-degree below zero reading. This record was subsequently tied in 1933. (The Weather Doctor)
7 February 1989...The low of 43 degrees below zero at Boca, CA was a state record for the month of February. In Utah, lows of -32 degrees at Bryce Canyon, -27 degrees at Delta, -29 degrees at Dugway, and -38 degrees at Vernal were all-time records for those locations. (The National Weather Summary)

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