21-25 March 2016

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Astronomical events of note --
• An early vernal equinox -- The vernal equinox that occurred early this past Sunday morning (officially at 0430Z or 12:30 AM EDT on 20 March 2016) was the earliest since 1896. This early occurrence was the result of the combined effects of the insertion of extra days in a leap year. In accordance with the Gregorian calendar reform, an extra day was included in 2000 (a century year divisible by 400), which makes the equinox occur earlier than in 1900 (a century year that is not a leap year). In addition, the added days in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 has also made the equinox earlier. The vernal equinox will occur earlier every leap year through the end of this 21st century, when it should be at 1402Z on 19 March 2096 (or 10:02 AM EDT on the 19th).
• A Pascal full moon, a lunar eclipse and religious celebrations -- The moon will reach the full moon phase on Wednesday, 23 March 2016 at 1201Z (8:01 AM EDT or 7:01 AM CDT, etc.). Since this full moon is the first following the spring equinox, it is called the "Pascal Moon," an event that is important to the timing of important religious observances in both the Jewish and Christian religions. Easter will be this coming Sunday (27 March).
  The full moon will pass through the Earth's shadow, creating a penumbral lunar eclipse that can be seen on Wednesday across a large section of North and South America, the Pacific basin, eastern Asia and Australia. The NASA Eclipse Page has particulars of this lunar eclipse.
• International observances -- Several days during this upcoming week have been designated as special days that are intended to focus public attention on the environment and earth science:
• "World Water Day" -- Tuesday, 22 March 2016, has been designated by the United Nations (UN) as the annual World Water Day. The theme for this year's World Water Day 2016 is "Water and Jobs." [UN-Water]
  
• "World Meteorology Day" -- A celebration will be held on Wednesday, 23 March 2016, for World Meteorology Day. This day is designated to celebrate the anniversary of the establishment of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on 23 March 1950. The WMO is an agency within the United Nations. This year's theme for World Meteorological Day 2016 is "Hotter, drier, wetter. Face the Future,"which has been chosen "to illustrate the reality of climate change," a trend of increasing temperatures together with an accelerated frequency and intensity of extreme events in the future unless urgent action is taken to cut emissions of greenhouse gases.
  
• Phenological events of note -- While astronomical spring commenced with the occurrence of the vernal equinox early Sunday morning (20 March 2016), several reoccurring phenological events also are used to note the onset of spring. These include:
• Buzzards return to Hinckley -- According to local reports from Hinckley, OH, spring occurred on Tuesday morning (15 March 2016) at 8:31 AM EDT when the first buzzard returned to roost at the Cleveland Metroparks Hinckley Reservation. According to legend, the buzzards return on the 15th of March of every year for nearly 200 years. [WJYC Channel 3 News]
• Swallows return to Capistrano -- Legend indicates that swallows return to the Mission at San Juan Capistrano in southern California every St. Joseph's Day (19 March). The return of the swallows appears to be sporadic, with some reports of sightings near the Mission. Increased urbanization around the Mission appears to keep the swallows away. However, the 58th annual Swallows Day parade was held on Saturday 12 March 2016.
• Updated Cherry Blossom Watch in Washington, DC -- Many tourists descend upon Washington, DC during the spring to view the sights, including the blossoming cherry trees that line the Tidal Basin along the Potomac River. The National Park service operates a website that reports the status of the cherry blossoms in anticipation of the 104th annual Cherry Blossom Festival that is scheduled to run from Sunday, 20 March through Sunday, 17 April 2016. According to their most recent forecast, experts expect that the trees should start their peak bloom on 23-24 March 2016, earlier than the average peak bloom date of 2 April. This site also has a listing of the phenological observations for past bloom dates over the past 24 years. According to NOAA's Climate Watch Magazine, the warm winter across the Middle Atlantic States could be responsible for the early bloom.
• Accessing the national climatographies -- NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has produced numerous climatographies that are quantitative descriptions of climate that include tables and charts portraying the characteristic values of selected climatic elements at a station or over an area. Some of these climatographies provide a variety of daily, monthly and annual normal climate data for agricultural, transportation and other interests. This week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth provides the links to selected climatographies from NCDC.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• Review of global weather and climate for February 2016 -- Using preliminary data collected from the global network of surface weather stations, scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) have determined that the combined global land and ocean surface temperature for February 2016 was 1.21 Celsius degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) average, which was not only the highest February temperature since comprehensive global climate records began in 1880, but also the largest temperature departure on record for any month. February 2016 represents the tenth consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken. Individually, the global ocean surface temperature for this past month was the highest in the 137-year period of record, as was the average global land surface temperature for February 2016.
  Furthermore, the three-months running from December 2015 through February 2016 that constitute meteorological winter in the Northern Hemisphere (and meteorological summer in the Southern Hemisphere) had the highest three-month average combined global temperature for any such interval since 1880/81. The Northern Hemisphere experiencing its warmest winter for both land and ocean, while the Southern Hemisphere had its warmest summer. Individually, both the global land surface temperature and the global ocean surface temperatures for these last three months were the highest on record. [State of the Climate/NCEI]
  According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the Arctic sea ice was the smallest monthly extent for any February since satellite surveillance began in 1979. Furthermore, the Arctic sea ice extent appeared to have reached its annual maximum extent during late February 2016 ahead of the typical peak extent in mid-March. This size would represent the lowest maximum seasonal extent in the satellite-era. Sea ice extent around Antarctica was the sixth smallest February sea ice extent on record.
  The extent of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover during February 2016 was the third smallest for the period of record that started in 1967. [NOAA/NCEI Global Snow & Ice]
  NCEI also provides a map showing the Global Significant Weather and Climate Events map for February 2016.
  A global map of the global mean surface temperature anomalies for February 2016 is available. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) produced a graph of the monthly temperature anomalies for each month since 1980. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• New oceanography satellite detects El Niño event while mapping ocean heights -- During the last week the first complete map was released that displayed the global sea surface height generated from data collected over a 10-day span in mid-February by the new U.S./European Jason-3 satellite. The data collected by this satellite that was launched in January 2016 appears to correspond well with sea height data collected by its predecessor, Jason 2, which was launched in June 2008. Consequently, Jason 3 continues the record of sea surface height measurements made by satellites that was begun in 1992. The first global sea level map made by the Jason 3 mission also shows a distinct El Niño signal across the eastern equatorial Pacific associated with the current strong El Niño event. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Feature]
• Global distribution of January 2016 monthly average atmospheric methane displayed -- NASA scientists recently produced a global map showing the distribution of atmospheric methane during the month of January 2016 from data collected by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) sensor onboard NASA's Aqua satellite. The methane data collected by the satellite sensor is from a pressure level in the atmosphere of 400 millibars or that corresponds to an altitude of approximately 4 km. [NASA Earth Observatory ]
  A feature called "Methane Matters" describes how scientists are attempting to quantify the effects of this potent greenhouse gas on the climate. Graphs of the long-term changes in methane are also included. [NASA Earth Observatory Feature]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• New Seasonal Climate Outlooks released for spring -- Late last week forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their Three-Month (Seasonal) Climate Outlooks for the three-months running from April through June 2016, which contains the last two months of meteorological spring and the first month of meteorological summer. A two-minute video is available with an overview provided by a CPC forecaster. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
  Specific details include:
• Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, most states along the West and East Coasts as well as those along the US-Canadian border should experience a high chance of above average spring and early summer temperatures. The greatest probabilities of such an occurrence extend across the Northwest (especially Washington, Oregon and northern Idaho) and across the Northeast (including the five New England States and Upstate New York). Conversely, a large area of Texas appears to have a good chance for below average temperatures. Sections of the southern and central Plains were considered to have near equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for better than even chances of dry spring conditions for the Pacific Northwest and the Upper Midwest that includes the western Great Lakes. On the other hand, a large section of the 48 contiguous states extending from California eastward to the coast of the Carolinas should have above even chances for a wet spring and early summer. The regions with the highest chances for wet weather would include the southern high Plains along with the southern and central Rockies, as well as across the Southeast, which would include Florida, adjacent sections of Alabama and Georgia along with coastal sections of the Carolinas. The rest of the coterminous states should have equal chances of below and above average spring precipitation. Outlooks for April are also available. A summary of the prognostic discussion of the outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that the current strong El Niño conditions should continue through at least meteorological spring (March through May) in the Northern Hemisphere before making a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions.
  
• Seasonal Drought Outlook released -- The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook was released for late March through June 2016 that indicates a persistence or expansion of drought conditions across the southwestern sections of the nation, running across southern and central California, southern and western Nevada and large areas of Arizona and adjacent New Mexico. Drought conditions could persist across northwestern Montana. The forecasters foresee an improvement in the conditions that could eliminate the drought across central and northern California, adjacent sections of Nevada and Oregon and scattered areas across the Great Basin and Rockies. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.
• Spring flood outlook for nation -- Forecasters with the National Weather Service's Hydrologic Information Center issued their National Hydrologic Assessment for Spring 2016 that includes minor to moderate flooding across a large portion of the nation's midsection along with a large area of the Southeast that includes the Atlantic Seaboard and the Southern Appalachians. The greatest threat of moderate flooding appears to be found along several of the major river sheds in these two regions. In the central sections of the nation, a moderate threat of flooding was expected along the middle and lower Mississippi River Valleys, the lower Missouri Valley and the Sabine River Valley in east Texas and Louisiana due to above average precipitation across these watersheds beginning in December 2015, as well as a mild winter across the Midwest, especially along the Upper Mississippi Valley and some of the river's tributaries. River basins of the Southeast extending from northern Florida to the Carolinas also experienced above average precipitation. [NOAA News] or [National Weather Service]
• Large section of Northeast coast may be able to adapt to rising seas -- Researchers from the US Geological Survey, Columbia University's Earth Institute and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies report that their projections generated from a new version of an inundation model indicate that 70 percent of the Northeast Atlantic Coast is more likely to change than to simply drown in response to rising seas during the next seven decades. [USGS Newsroom]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

• Ocean acidification has impact on California coast at night -- Scientists from the Carnegie Institution for Science, the University of California Davis and the University of California Santa Cruz recently reported on their measurements made in tidal pools along the California coast. They warn that ocean acidification due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations associated with human activity will increasingly place many marine organisms at risk by exacerbating normal changes in ocean chemistry that occur during the overnight hours. They found that the most-vulnerable organisms are likely to be those with calcium carbonate shells or skeletons. [Carnegie Institution for Science Explore Our Science]

CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH

• El Niño could help increase mosquito breeding grounds and spread Zika virus -- The World Health Organization (WHO) recently released a report addressing the health consequences of El Niño that is forecast to continue producing above-average precipitation across sections of Central and South America through at least May 2015. This above-average rainfall would cause floods and increases in vector-borne diseases spread by mosquitoes, including malaria, dengue, chikungunya and the Zika virus. Countries in Central and South America are particularly susceptible, including Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina. [World Health Organization]
  [Special thanks to Jessica Colligan, a member of Dr. Michael Passow's DataStreme Local Implementation Team for forwarding this item. EJH]
  A Q&A page is available for Zika virus and potential health complications. [WHO]
  In a new study led by mosquito and disease experts at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), computer simulations were at NCAR and the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center that showed summertime weather conditions are favorable for populations of the mosquito along the East Coast as far north as New York City and across the southern tier of the country as far west as Phoenix and Los Angeles. [NCAR/UCAR AtmosNews]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Seawater Salinity and Carbon Dioxide

The contemporary concern regarding global climate change has caused scientists to study the various factors that govern the ocean's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, are on the rise primarily because of increased burning of fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be contributing to increased global temperatures, a condition often identified as global warming. The ocean's role in regulating the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the temperature, salinity, and biological components of surface waters.

Studies show that the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide is primarily temperature dependent. As noted in Chapter 8 of your textbook, gases are more soluble in cold seawater than warm seawater. Hence, changes in sea surface temperature affect the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide. We also found in Chapter 1, photosynthetic organisms assimilate carbon dioxide and release oxygen. Through cellular respiration, all organisms release carbon dioxide. Therefore, biological activity affects the ocean's ability to absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

What about the effects of changes in salinity on the ocean's uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Research from the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii provides some insight on this question. For nearly 20 years, scientists have been collecting physical, chemical and biological data through a large column of ocean water at Station ALOHA, a sampling site about 100 km (62 mi) north of Oahu that appears representative of oceanic conditions in the central North Pacific. In 2003, David M. Karl, a biogeochemist at the University of Hawaii in Honolulu, reported a decline in the rate at which surface ocean waters were absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In 2001, the rate of carbon dioxide uptake was only about 15% of the rate in 1989. Why the change in carbon dioxide uptake? In this region of the Pacific north of Hawaii, sea surface temperatures showed no significant change during the period of observation but precipitation decreased and evaporation increased. Less precipitation associated with drought coupled with higher rates of evaporation caused the surface water salinity at ALOHA to increase by about 1%. Increasing salinity inhibits water's ability to absorb gases including carbon dioxide. Karl and his colleagues attribute 40% of the decline in the ocean's carbon dioxide uptake to the saltier waters. The balance of the decline may be due to changes in biological productivity or ocean mixing.

Projected changes in global climate indicate significant changes in precipitation around the globe including reduced precipitation over various large areas of the oceans, resulting in potential "drought" conditions. Since changes in oceanic salinity result from changes in precipitation, the contribution that salinity plays on future assimilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the ocean also becomes an important consideration.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

1. With rising sea surface temperatures, the rate of evaporation of seawater [(increases), (decreases)].
2. With increasing salinity and constant temperature, the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is taken up by ocean water [(increases), (decreases)].

Historical Events:

• 21 March 1951...Antarctica is the windiest place in the world. Port Martin averages 40 mph winds throughout the year. On this day, the winds averaged 108 mph. (National Weather Service files)
• 22 March 1888...The morning's low temperature at Chicago, IL dipped to one degree below zero, the latest sub zero Fahrenheit reading in the Windy City's history. (The Weather Doctor)
• 23 March 1899...A whopping 141 inches of snow fell on Ruby, CO between the 23rd and 30th to establish the state record for greatest snowfall from a single storm at the time. (National Weather Service files)
  
• 23 March 1912...Residents of Kansas City, MO began to dig out from a storm that produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours . The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm of modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year, Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe, KS received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th) (Intellicast) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)
• 24 March 1993...What was to be called "the winter of the return of the big snows" continued to set records. Boston, MA had 8.6 inches of snow on this day to push its monthly total to 38.9 inches that set a new March monthly snowfall record. The old record was 33.0 inches set in 1916. Boston's seasonal snowfall total now stood at 81.7 inches, the third snowiest winter season on record. (Intellicast)
• 25 March 1914...Society Hill, SC was buried under 18 inches of snow, establishing a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
• 25 March 1975...The town of Sandberg reported a wind gust to 101 mph, a record for the state of California. (The Weather Channel)
• 26 March 1913...The Ohio River Basin flood reached a peak. Ten-inch rains over a wide area of the Ohio River Basin inundated cities in Ohio, drowning 467 persons, and causing 147 million dollars damage. The Miami River at Dayton reached a level eight feet higher than ever before. The flood, caused by warm weather and heavy rains, was the second mostly deadly of record for the nation. (David Ludlum)
• 26 March 1930...A two-day snowfall of 19.2 inches at Chicago, IL was the greatest modern snowfall on the record books at Chicago. (Intellicast)
• 26 March 1954...The temperature at Allakaket, AK plunged to 69 degrees below zero, setting a record for the lowest temperature ever for March. (The Weather Channel)
• 26-28 March 2004...The first ever confirmed hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, named Catarina, struck the coast of the Brazilian states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul with heavy rains and winds, before dissipating over land late on the 28th. (The Weather Doctor)
• 27 March 1931...A blizzard that struck western Kansas and adjoining states was called the "worst since January 1888". The low temperature of 3 degrees below zero, which was reached during the blizzard, stands as the lowest temperature recorded so late in the season. (Intellicast)
• 27-28 March 1964...The most powerful earthquake in US history, the Good Friday Earthquake, rocked south central Alaska, killing 125 people and causing $311 million in property damage, especially to the city of Anchorage. The earthquake in Prince William Sound, which had a magnitude of 9.2 on the Richter scale, caused some landmasses to be thrust upward locally as much as 80 feet, while elsewhere land sank as much as 8 feet. This earthquake and submarine landslides also created a tsunami that produced extensive coastal damage. A landslide at Valdez Inlet in Alaska generated a tsunami that reached a height of 220 feet in the inlet. A major surge wave that was approximately 100 ft above low tide caused major damage to Whittier (where 13 died) and other coastal communities in Alaska. The first wave took more than 5 hours to reach the Hawaiian Islands where a 10-foot wave was detected, while a wave that was 14.8 feet above high tide level traveled along portions of the West Coast, reaching northern California 4 hours after the earthquake. Nearly 10,000 people jammed beaches at San Francisco to view the possible tsunami, but no high-amplitude waves hit those beaches. Tsunami damage reached Crescent City in northern California. Tens of thousands of aftershocks indicated that the region of faulting extended about 600 miles. The Alaska Tsunami Warning Center was established in the wake of this disaster, with a mission to warn Alaskan communities of the threat from tsunamis. [See the 1964 Prince William Sound Tsunami page from the University of Washington.] (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar) (US Coast Guard Historians Office)
• 27 March 1984...A strong storm system traversing northern Texas pulled very hot air northeastward into southern Texas. The temperature at Brownsville, TX soared to 106 degrees, which broke not only the monthly record high temperature but the all-time record as well. Cotulla, TX reached 108 degrees, equaling the March record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)
• 27-28 March 2009...A blizzard moving across the southern Plains was responsible for new 24-hour snowfall records for the states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. A 30.0-inch snowfall at Pratt eclipsed the previous Kansas 24-hour record of 24 inches set at Norcator on 26 October 1996. Freedom and Woodward in Oklahoma replaced the 24.0-inch state snowfall record at Buffalo on 21 February 1971. In Texas, 25.0 inches fell at Follett, which broke the previous 24.0-inch record at Plainview set on 4 February 1971. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2016, The American Meteorological Society.