WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

WEEK TEN: 4-8 April 2016

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Masters climatology -- The 2016 Masters Golf Tournament, the 80th edition of one of professional golf's four major championships, will be held this coming week ( 4 April – 10 April 2016) at the Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, GA. The Southeast Regional Climate Center has produced a Masters Climatology for 1934-2015 that includes the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and the 24-hour precipitation totals for each day of the four-day event in early April, extending over the last 79 years.
Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2016 Campaign is underway -- The fourth in the series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2016 will continue through Friday, 8 April. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Leo in the Northern Hemisphere and Crux in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next series in the 2016 campaign is scheduled for 29 April-8 May 2016. [GLOBE at Night]
Linking weather and climate -- Read this week's Supplemental Information.. In Greater Depth for a description the distinction between atmospheric conditions that can be considered as weather events, which may last for time spans of up to a week, from those events with longer time spans of a month to three months that can be considered within the ream of climate analysis or forecasting.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Extent of Arctic's winter sea ice is smallest on record -- The National Snow and Ice Date Center (NSIDC) recently reported that on 24 March 2016 the Arctic sea ice extent had reached its annual maximum extent of 5.607 million square miles for the winter of 2015/16. NSIDC has declared this winter's maximum extent to represent a new record for smallest size in the satellite record that started in 1979, slightly smaller than the previous record minimum set during the 2014/15 winter. One of the biggest drivers of record-low minimum extent has been judged to be the onset of springtime melt. The occurrence of this year's maximum-extent date for Arctic sea ice is approximately 10 days later than normal. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Visualizing extent of arctic permafrost -- A map of the status of the permafrost in the polar and subpolar regions of the Northern Hemisphere was recently generated based upon data obtained from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Permafrost represents the rock or soil that has temperatures remaining at or below 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius) for two or more years. The release of methane gas into the atmosphere from the melting permafrost is also discussed. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE FORCING

Alaskan volcano spews ash across the 49th State -- An image made from data collected by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) sensor onboard the NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP satellite early last week shows a plume of volcanic ash being spread toward the northeast from Alaska's Pavlof volcano that began erupting on Sunday, 27 March. The Pavlof volcano, which is one of Alaska's most currently active volcanoes, is located near the western end of the Alaska Peninsula approximately 600 air miles to the southwest of Anchorage. The volcanic ash, which reached altitudes of over 20,000 feet, was being carried to the northeast by upper tropospheric winds. [NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory]
Expansion of impervious surfaces monitored around the nation's capital -- Comparison of images of the Washington, DC metropolitan area made in 1984 by the TM sensor on NASA's Landsat 5 satellite and in 2010 by the ETM+ sensor on the agency's Landsat 7 satellite shows the expansion of areas with impervious surfaces over the areas around the regions especially along and inside the Capital Beltway over the last three decades. The increases in the percentage of impervious surfaces across the region due to increased development and urbanization have created environmental issues involved with storm water runoff and increased temperatures associated with the urban heat island. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Measurements of raindrop sizes from space indicate that size matters for storms -- Scientists from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center used data collected from radar and imager instruments on the NASA and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission to develop three-dimensional images of raindrops and snowflakes from around the world. Focus has been on understanding the "particle size distribution," which provides an indication of the ratio of large drops to small or medium size drops. These new global data on raindrop and snowflakes should help improve satellite-derived precipitation estimates and in numerical weather forecast models. [NOAA News]
Atmospheric circulation patterns leading to California's drought becoming more common -- Atmospheric scientists from Stanford University and colleagues have analyzed the atmospheric circulation pattern that created the persistent high pressure system anchored over the Northeast Pacific and along the West Coast dubbed the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" (or Triple R) responsible for the current California drought and near record high temperatures. They found that these atmospheric pressure patterns similar to those that occurred during California's historically driest, wettest, warmest and coolest years have occurred more frequently in recent decades and they warn that they could continue to become more common in the future. [Stanford University News]
Comparing the "Blob" with previous "marine heatwaves" -- Scientists from the University of Washington compared the size and magnitude of the large patch of warm water dubbed the "Blob" by the Washington State Climatologist that resided in the North Pacific off the Pacific Northwest coast from 2013 to 2015 with other similar "marine heatwave" features in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans since 1950. Claiming that these marine heatwaves are analogous to atmospheric heatwaves, they found that their analysis of ocean surface temperatures since 1950 indicates the number of marine heatwaves in these two ocean basins have occurred regularly, but have become more common since the 1970s, as global temperatures have increased. However, they also note that the larger, more intense and longer-lasting a marine heatwave is, the less frequently it will occur. [University of Washington News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Sea surface temperature patterns could help predict future extreme heat waves in Eastern US -- Researchers from Harvard University, the University of Washington, Penn State University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have identified several sea surface temperature (SST) patterns over the North Pacific Ocean that they feel can help predict future extreme heat waves across the Eastern US by as much as 50 days in advance. The researchers used data from 1982 to 2015 to find patterns in the SST that preceded extreme heat waves for more than one thousand weather stations across the East. [Harvard University News]
Canadian national seasonal outlook issued -- Forecasters with Environment Canada issued their outlooks for temperature and precipitation across Canada for the three months of April through June 2016, which represents the last two months of meteorological spring and the start of meteorological summer. The temperature outlook indicates that large sections of Canada, extending from the Yukon Territory and British Columbia eastward along the US-Canadian border to the Maritime Provinces should experience above normal (1981-2010) temperatures for these three months. In addition, sections of the Canadian Archipelago should also have above average spring and early summer temperatures. The remaining areas of Canada should experience near normal spring temperatures.
The Canadian precipitation outlook for April through June 2016 indicates that above normal precipitation for the next three months would be possible across widely scattered areas of Northern and Eastern Canada. The remaining areas of Canada should receive near normal precipitation for the months running from April through June. .
[Note for comparisons and continuity with the three-month seasonal outlooks of temperature and precipitation generated for the continental United States and Alaska by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, one would need to use Environment Canada's probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation.]
High risk of severe water stress in Asia foreseen by mid-century -- Using sophisticated numerical modeling techniques run on the Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), scientists have found that economic and population growth along with a changing climate could result in a "high risk of severe water stress" across a wide area of Asia by the year 2050. This region, which includes India and China, contains approximately half of the world's population. [MIT News]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Current El Niño and its effects on ocean life are tracked -- A 15-minute podcast is available as part of NOAA Fisheries' "On the Line" series that includes interviews in which the Director of NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center in La Jolla, CA and the Director of the Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle, WA describe the current El Niño and how this event is affecting life in the ocean. [NOAA Fisheries Podcasts]
Changing climate pushes snowshoe hares northward -- Researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison have found that snowshoe hares are being forced northward in Wisconsin by approximately 5.5 miles per decade due to a changing climate that features higher winter temperatures and less snow on the ground. This species of hare has adapted to a snowy climate, developing a white coat in winter for camouflage. [University of Wisconsin-Madison News]
Satellites used to detect underground forest fungi for monitoring climate change -- Scientists at Indiana University, Bloomington have developed a method for detecting the presence of different types of underground forest fungi from data collected by sensors onboard orbiting Landsat satellites that can be used to help predict how climate change will alter future forest habitats. According to this new methodology, satellite images of forest canopies allow scientists to detect patterns in the spectral signatures of tree species associated with one of the two types of underground mycorrhizal fungi that scavenge for nutrients by obtaining sugars made by trees during photosynthesis. Since these two types of fungi appear to respond differently to a changing climate, knowing where each type predominates may help scientists predict where forests will thrive in the future. [NASA Global Climate Change News]
Most severe bleaching of Great Barrier Reef is documented -- After a variety of surveys made from aircraft and ships, members of Australia's National Coral Bleaching Taskforce have concluded that the current coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef is the worst, mass bleaching event in its history, with the overwhelming majority of reefs being ranked in the most severe bleaching category. This coral bleaching has been the result of elevated ocean temperatures. [ARC Centre of Excellence Coral Reef Studies Media Release]

CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH

Identifying the nation's spring "Allergy Capitals" for 2016 -- The Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America recently released its annual rankings of the top 100 cities across the nation identified as the "most challenging places to live with allergies" for the spring allergy season based upon measured pollen levels (airborne grass/tree/weed pollen and mold spores), allergy medications administered per capita and the number of allergists per capita for each major city. A similar tabulation is also made for the fall allergy season. [Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America]
Coast guard from US and Canada prepare for possible cruise ship catastrophe in Northwest Passage -- In anticipation of the scheduled maiden voyage of the luxury cruise ship Crystal Serenity from Seward, AK through the Bering Strait and the Northwest Passage before reaching New York City in August, coast guard officials from the US and Canada are planning for a possible cruise ship catastrophe in these remote waters on 13 April. The Crystal Serenity is expected to have 1700 passengers and crew on its 32-day voyage. Melting sea ice in the Arctic sea ice has led to more cruise ship activity in the regional waters. Ironically, this training is scheduled to take place a day before the 104th-anniversary of the tragic sinking of the SS Titanic following a collision with an iceberg on its maiden voyage. [The Guardian News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Climate change linked to Pueblo social disruption -- Scientists from Washington State University claim that the the disappearance of the ancestral Pueblo people from southwest Colorado, along with three other cultural transitions in the region over the preceding five centuries could be associated with climate change that damaged crops and resulted in social turmoil and violence. These conclusions were made from climate reconstructions based upon the analysis of more than 1000 archaeological sites across the Southwest and nearly 30,000 tree-ring dates that served as indicators of rainfall, heat and time. [Washington State University News]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Evolution of Climate Models

Climate scientists have been building increasingly sophisticated, mathematical climate models to serve two main purposes: test the sensitivity of the climate to altered conditions and simulate climate over time, either back into the past or forward into the future. The simplest, early type of climate model (zero dimensional) was the "energy balance model", which provides an average planetary temperature from incoming and outgoing radiation. A one-dimensional energy balance model determines the surface temperature from the energy balance at individual latitude belts.

More complex models involve the physical equations of motion (gas laws, thermodynamics and radiation interactions) subject to climate forcings, the boundary conditions of solar radiation, surface properties and atmospheric composition. As computers improved, models have included a three-dimensional oceanic circulation ("atmosphere-ocean coupling"), then interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere and geosphere, with climate feedback mechanisms involving the exchanges of heat and water. Finally, models have been able to incorporate the improved knowledge of the biogeochemical processes. Climate models calculate variables such as temperature at individual points within the three-dimensional grid of cells across the Earth's surface and vertically through the atmosphere, ocean, ice and land. A tradeoff exists between the number of grid points (the spatial resolution) and the number of numerical computations. Time and space accuracy costs increased computational time and expense.

The development of numerical weather prediction models during the 1960s and 1970s spurred the development of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate. One of the early atmospheric GCMs was developed at Princeton University's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). By the 1990s, comprehensive climate models were being perfected with three-dimensional oceanic circulation. Ultimately, the term GCM could be used to refer to a Global Climate Model that represents the major climate system components (atmosphere, ocean, land surface and polar ice) and their interactions. The Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research is one of the most comprehensive climate models currently available. This model has been used to determine the future temperature response for several scenarios concerning the release of greenhouse gases through the 21st century as proposed by the IPCC reports.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

General circulation models are generally [(less), (more)] sophisticated than energy balance models.
Increasing the spatial resolution of a global climate model causes the computational time to [(increase),(decrease),(remain the same)].

Historical Events:

4 April 1933...Pigeon River Bridge, MN reported 28 inches of snow, which established the state 24-hour snowfall record. (4th-5th) (The Weather Channel)
4 April 1955...A severe 3-day spring snowstorm ended over north central Wyoming and south central Montana. Sheridan, WY had near blizzard conditions for 43 hours and recorded 22.7 inches of snow in 24 hours on the 3^rd to set a new 24-hour snowfall record. Billings, MT had a storm total of 42.3 inches, a new single storm snowfall record. (Intellicast)
4 April 1973...Sandia Crest, NM reported a snow depth of 95 inches, a record for the state of New Mexico. (The Weather Channel)
5 April 1815...The Tambora Volcano in Java erupted. Ash from the eruption would circle the globe, blocking sunlight and leading to the unusually cold summer in 1816. On 6/6/1816, snow would fall as far south of Connecticut with some places in New England picking up 10 inches. On July 4th, the temperature at Savannah GA plunged to 46 degrees. Eastern North America and Europe had freezing nighttime temperatures in August. (National Weather Service files)
5 April 1926...A reported 0.65 inches of rain fell in one minute at Opid's Camp, CA (Intellicast)
5 April 1945 ...The temperature at Eagles Nest, NM plunged to 36 degrees below zero to establish an April record for the continental United States. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
5 April 1989...Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Santa Maria, CA and 105 degrees in Downtown Los Angeles established records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)
6 April 1886...Detroit, MI recorded its biggest snowfall in 24 hours when 25.4 inches fell. (Intellicast)
6 April 1989...Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in California. Afternoon highs of 91 degrees in Downtown San Francisco, 93 degrees at San Jose, 98 degrees at San Diego, 103 degrees at Santa Maria, 104 degrees at Riverside, and 106 degrees in Downtown Los Angeles established records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)
6 April 1990...The last measurable snowfall of the 1989-90 season occurred at Valdez, AK. This brought the season snowfall to a whopping 560.2 inches, breaking the old record of 517 inches set back in the 1928-29 season. (Intellicast)
8-10 April 1958...A global 48-hour precipitation record was established at Aurere, La Reunion Island, when 97.1 in. of rain from a tropical cyclone fell on the Indian Ocean island. (The Weather Doctor)
8 April 1989...Two dozen cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Phoenix, AZ equaled their record for April of 104 degrees established just the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)
9 April 1983...Hottest day in Malaysian historical record, as the temperature reached at Chuping, Malaysia reached 101 degrees, a record that was tied nine days later. (The Weather Doctor)
9 April 2000...A record April snowfall of 14.6 in. shut down Montreal, Quebec. Snow removal contracts had ended on 1 April. (The Weather Doctor)
9 April 1995...Glasgow, MT recorded 12.2 inches of snow in 24 hours, its greatest 24-hour snowfall on record. (Intellicast)
10 April 1985...A late season cold snap in the east set record low April temperatures in the following cities: Asheville, NC, 23 degrees; Beckley, WV, 11 degrees; Elkins, WV, 3 degrees. April record lows were tied in Raleigh-Durham, NC (23 degrees) and Roanoke, VA (20 degrees). (Intellicast)
10 April 1996...A wind gust of 253 mph was measured when the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Olivia passed over Australia's Barrow Island. This gust became the highest surface wind speed record, replacing the 231-mph wind gust measured at New Hampshire's Mount Washington Observatory on 12 April 1934. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)

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