WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

WEEK ONE: 30 January- 3 February 2017

ITEMS OF INTEREST

High-quality maps of February temperature and precipitation normals across US available -- The PRISM Climate Group at Oregon State University's website has prepared high-resolution maps depicting the normal maximum, minimum and precipitation totals for February and other months across the 48 coterminous United States for the current 1981-2010 climate normals interval. These maps, with a 800-meter resolution, were produced using the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) climate mapping system.
February weather calendar for a city near you -- The Midwestern Regional Climate Center maintains an interactive website that permits the public to produce a ready to print weather calendar for any given month of the year, such as February, at any of approximately 270 weather stations around the nation. (These stations are NOAA's ThreadEx stations.) The entries for each day of the month includes: Normal maximum temperature, normal minimum temperature, normal daily heating and cooling degree days, normal daily precipitation, record maximum temperature, record minimum temperature, and record daily precipitation; the current normals for 1981-2010.
Groundhog Day and climatology -- This Thursday (2 February 2017) is Groundhog Day, celebrated by many communities around the nation with much fanfare. According to legend, if the groundhog emerged from its burrow after hibernation on this day and saw its shadow, it would return to hibernation, thereby indicating six more weeks of wintry weather. Most people assume that a converse holds true - if no shadow were seen, an early spring should be expected. According to a Groundhog Day report prepared by the National Centers for Environmental Information (formerly, the National Climatic Data Center), no convincing statistical evidence appears to support this belief of the prognostic capabilities of the groundhog. The only point that can be considered to have any meteorological significance is that cloud free weather conditions would be responsible for allowing a woodchuck or human to cast a shadow. Such cloud-free weather conditions in early February typically are associated with a cold mass of air that would usually send all but the hardiest resident back into a nice warm shelter. This legend also coincides with an ancient late winter festival, since next Thursday is the customary halfway point of the astronomical winter season (the point is closer to Friday afternoon, 3 February 2017). To the ancients, this date was significant because it was one of the four Cross Quarter Days, marking an important astronomical milestone. The day is located essentially at the point half way between the winter solstice, marking the occurrence of the shortest length of daylight in the Northern Hemisphere (21 December 2016) and the spring equinox (20 March 2017), when equal lengths of daylight and darkness occur once again. So regardless of what your local groundhog "predicts" the beginning of astronomical spring is still six weeks away.
Climatology of Super Bowls updated -- Next Sunday (5 February 2017) is "Super Sunday," when the Atlanta Falcons will play the New England Patriots in the National Football League's Super Bowl LI (or 51) at the NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. The service climatologist for the Southeast Regional Climate Center has provided an updated listing of the Super Bowl Weather & Climate 1967-2016. This annotated list contains the "climatology" for game day that includes the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, the 24-hour precipitation and the 24-hour snowfall along with comments on the weather observed in the host city on "Super Sunday" for each of the previous 50 Super Bowl games.
During the last 50 years the Super Bowl has been played in at least 19 different major metropolitan areas and in 24 different stadiums. Furthermore, one-third (17) of these games have been played indoors. After years of restricting the selected site to relatively warm cities (where temperatures need to be at least 50 degrees Fahrenheit) or at domed stadiums, NFL officials scheduled the 2014 Super Bowl for the outdoor MetLife Stadium at East Rutherford, NJ, the home of the New York Giants and Jets that is a cold weather site. That game was played before wintry weather reached northern New Jersey.
Accessing and interpreting climate data -- If you would like to obtain a variety of climate data for your home town or state that are available from the National Weather Service, please read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth. This Supplemental not only identifies some of the sites to find the data, but also provides you with a brief explanation of the terminology used to identify the climate data.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Viewing the current La Niña from a musical and Latin American perspective -- A scientist with Princeton University and NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory wrote a guest post to the NOAA ENSO blog that focuses upon how the current weak La Niña has affected the precipitation patterns across South America and the Caribbean over the last several months. He used musical analogies to describe this La Niña event, which is an anomalous atmospheric and oceanic pattern frequently characterized by colder than average water in the eastern equatorial Pacific; it differs from the well-known El Niño event, which occurs with warmer than average waters across the eastern Pacific. Both La Niña and El Niño events are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern that can cause anomalous shifts in the weather and climate across wide areas of the globe. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

First images of Earth from nation's newest geosynchronous environmental satellite -- Early last week NOAA released the first images of Earth obtained from data collected by sensors onboard NOAA's recently launched Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 satellite. This satellite is in geosynchronous orbit at an altitude of 22,300 miles above the Earth. The first images obtained from GOES-16 have four times the resolution of the agency's earlier satellites and are in color because of the number of channels used to detect sunlight reflected from Earth. [NOAA News] (Editor's note: One of the early images included a view of the Moon appearing over the limb of the Earth within two days of full moon. EJH)
Knowledge of dust on snow is important to water management in the Rocky Mountain West -- An eight-minute podcast contains an interview with a research scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and colleagues that describes their work at studying how dust fall on the snowpack across the mountains in Colorado and Utah affect the snowmelt. The surface reflectivity to incoming sunlight, or surface albedo, of the snow is affected by the dust and a darkened snow surface can cause increased melt. The researchers' work monitoring the amount of dust on snowpack from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensors onboard NASA's orbiting Terra and Aqua satellites has helped improve streamflow forecasts along the Colorado River Basin, a region that depends upon snowmelt for agriculture and urban areas. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory News]
Tracking the "memory" of soil moisture by satellite -- Scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory recently reported on their study of the first year of data collected from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite, in which they used SMAP measurements to estimate soil moisture memory in the top two inches of Earth's topsoil. Based upon these estimates, they found that approximately one-seventh of the amount of rain that falls is still present in the topmost layer of soils three days later. This persistence is greatest in Earth's driest regions. Soil moisture memory, which refers to the length of time needed for soil moisture to dissipate following a rainfall, can influence our weather and climate. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory News]
New space weather model simulates magnetic structure of solar storms -- A new tool is available from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center that helps map the paths of magnetically structured clouds called coronal mass ejections (CMEs) before they reach Earth. This tool is called EEGGL, which is short for the Eruptive Event Generator (Gibson and Low), and is designed to help predict "space weather" involving how the magnetic fields of these solar eruptions interact with the Earth's magnetic field. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Feature]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Florida corals serve as proxy recorders of past cycles in temperature and precipitation over Gulf of Mexico -- A team of scientists from the US Geological Survey (USGS), the University of Texas Austin and Louisiana State University analyzed cores extracted from two species of massive coral, Orbicella faveolata and Siderastrea siderea, in Florida's Dry Tortugas National Park to reconstruct ocean temperatures extending back 278 years. This temperature time series reconstruction was generated from strontium/calcium (Sr/Ca) ratios and provided evidence of cycles in the temperature corresponding with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is linked to rainfall over most of the United States, droughts in the Midwest, hurricane intensification and landfalls and ocean heat transfer processes taking place in the Caribbean and North Atlantic. [USGS News]
Variations in Earth's orbital elements and sea ice are in synch with glacial periods -- Scientists from Brown University and NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory used computer simulations to show that two periodic variations in the Earth's orbital elements involving a 21,000 year precession cycle and a 100,000-year cycle in the orbital eccentricity to cause an expansion of sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere, which helps set a pace for the glacial-interglacial cycle. [Brown University News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Seasonal weather outlook released -- Forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center recently released their new national Seasonal Outlook for the next three months of 2017 (February-April) that includes the last month of meteorological winter (December-February) and the first two months of meteorological spring (March-May). Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, the southern tier of states along with the Eastern Seaboard should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for these three upcoming months. While above average temperatures were expected from the lower Colorado Valley in southeastern California eastward to Florida and northward to Maine, the greatest probability of such an occurrence is to be found across the Southwest, centered upon New Mexico and Texas. Conversely, sections of the northern tier of states extending from western Washington eastward to northern Minnesota were considered to have a better than average chance of below average late winter-early spring temperatures. The high Plains in northern Montana would have the greatest chance of chilly weather. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the 48 contiguous states would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for the northern tier of states extending from the Washington Cascades eastward to the Great Lakes to have a better than even chance of below average precipitation for the upcoming three months of 2017. The highest probabilities of above average precipitation were located over the high Plains of Montana and North Dakota and across the Great Lakes, centered on the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. Conversely, the Southwest and the Southeast were considered to be under a better than even chance of below average precipitation. Those areas in the Southwest extending across Arizona and New Mexico and the Southeast running from the Mississippi Delta in southeastern Louisiana to the Carolinas would have the best chance of dry weather. Elsewhere, a large area of the coterminous states should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for the end of winter and the first two months of meteorological spring.
  A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that assuming that the weak La Niña event that was continuing across the equatorial Pacific Ocean into mid January would begin a transition into an ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation)-neutral situation during February, when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions would prevail. This ENSO-neutral condition could continue through summer of 2017 (in the Northern Hemisphere). A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from mid-January through April 2017. Their outlook would call for persistence of extensive drought conditions across scattered areas of the Southwest (Arizona), the southern Plains (Oklahoma) and the mid and lower Mississippi Valleys (Missouri and Arkansas. The development of drought conditions was anticipated across the Florida Peninsula. Sections of southern California, the eastern slopes of the Rockies (in Colorado, western Kansas and South Dakota), the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys in the Southeast, and the Northeast (extending from Maryland in the Middle Atlantic to Maine in northern New England) that are currently experiencing drought conditions could see improvement in drought conditions, with a many of these areas seeing sufficient improvement that they would possibly be removed from drought status. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Coastal wetlands could be transformed by changes in precipitation and temperature during this century -- Researchers with the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley predict that changes in rainfall and temperatures during the remainder of the 21st century would transform wetlands along the Gulf of Mexico as well as around the globe. These changes to coastal wetlands would be in addition to anticipated global sea level rises caused by higher temperatures associated with human activity. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation could cause changes in plant communities, such as from salt marshes to mangrove swamps or to salty mud flats. The scientists based their research on field studies in ten estuaries along the Gulf Coast running from Texas to Florida and upon current and future climate conditions along this coast. [USGS News]
Impact of 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption upon New England fisheries is explored -- A team of one dozen researchers from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and other research institutions across New England have investigated the impacts of Indonesia's Mt. Tambora in 1815 had upon the fisheries off the New England coast. The dust veil from the largest volcanic eruption in recorded history altered the climate of the Northern Hemisphere and was responsible for the extremely cold year of 1816 often called "The Year Without A Summer" across New England, Europe and Asia. In addition, the eruption adversely affected the distribution of fisheries along the New England coast along with the economic conditions in coastal communities, resulting in the year also being called the "Mackerel Year." [University of Massachusetts Amherst News]

CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH

Astronauts and football players have at least five things in common -- As Super Bowl LI is approaching in one week, NASA has produced a feature that describes five similarities in the preparations that football players and astronauts must undergo in order to accomplish their goals of winning football games and exploring space. These similarities involve: exercise, nutrition, communication, innovative technology and teamwork. [NASA Feature]
Cosmic radiation studied to protect high-altitude travelers -- NASA scientists are studying cosmic radiation at high altitudes in the Earth's atmosphere in order to help improve monitoring of real-time radiation for the aviation industry in order to help protect crew and passengers in potentially higher radiation environments. The scientists launched a giant helium-filled balloon from Fort Sumner, NM in September 2015 with instruments into the stratosphere that are designed to measure cosmic radiation coming from the sun and interstellar space. This launch, which was part of NASA's Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X) took measurements at different altitudes, especially in the Earth's magnetosphere where cosmic radiation is trapped and blocked from reaching the Earth's surface. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Feature]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

REPORTS FROM THE FIELD --

A request: If you have some climate-related experience that you would like to share with other DataStreme Earth's Climate System participants, please send them to the email address appearing at the bottom of this document for possible inclusion in a News file. Thank you. EJH

Concept of the Week: Touring the DataStreme Earth's Climate System RealTime Climate Portal Website

NOTE: This Concept for the Week is a repeat of that which appeared in last week's Weekly Climate News.

Welcome to DataStreme Earth's Climate System (ECS)! The AMS Climate Studies RealTime Climate Portal is an integral component of the DataStreme ECS (Earth's Climate System) course. The website is intended to deliver a wealth of climate information that is both pertinent to the course as well as being a reference site for you as you study Earth's climate system. The webpage is arranged in several sections. On Monday of each week of the course, we will post the current Weekly Climate News that includes Climate in the News (a summary listing of recent events related to climate), Concept of the Week (an in-depth analysis of some topic related to climate in the Earth system), and Historical Events (a list of past events important in the understanding of climatology). When appropriate, Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth will be provided on some topic related to the principal theme of the week.

You will use the RealTime Climate Portal to access and download the "Current Climate Studies" that complement your Climate Studies Investigations Manual. These materials should also be available Monday morning. Click the appropriate links to download and print these electronic components of the investigations as well as your Chapter, Investigations and Current Climate Studies Response forms.

Beyond these course Learning Files, sections include Climate Information, Climate Variability, Climate Change, Societal Interactions and Climate Policy, and Extras. As the titles suggest, there are multiple uses for climate data and their interpretation. Here we explore some examples of the information provided in the various sections of the RealTime Climate Portal.

The Climate Information section includes access to weather data, the raw material of climate synthesis, from the United States and the world under the heading "Observations and Data." Under this heading, click on "U.S. and World Weather Data." This National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) page first directs you to "United States Weather" and provides channels to current weather data as well as radar graphics, weather maps, and aviation and marine weather. It then leads you to International Weather Conditions.

The second major subdivision of the RealTime Climate Portal encompasses Climate Variability. Climatic variability refers to the fluctuations and oscillations that may occur within the climate system at temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Select the link, "NOAA El Niño Page". The page that appears provides access to a wealth of background and information on El Niño and La Niña, including the animation showing sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific during recent months. To the left of the animation, click on "What's happening today?" The page of current tropical Pacific conditions that appears shows a small map to the right. Click on that map and again anywhere on the subsequent set of map panels to get an enlarged view of the latest conditions of SST and anomalies.

The third major section of the RealTime Climate Portal is termed Climate Change. Here we provide links to information and analyses that primarily focus on anthropogenic (human-made) change processes and results in the climate system. That prominently includes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's ("IPCC") latest classic report on atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and their effects. Also linked are modeling results ("Models") based on those studies.

The last major section of the RealTime Climate Portal is titled Societal Interactions and Climate Policy. This block contains information on the impacts of projected change on human societies around the world, beyond that listed in the IPCC report, and the international actions and debates regarding those issues. Select and click on "National Climate Assessment (NCA3) Highlights" in this section. This webpage introduces you to the latest comprehensive and authoritative report on climate change and its impacts in the United States, now and in the future. You will be directed to this report several times in this course.

Completing the RealTime Climate Portal is the Extras section of additional handy information for the course and individual study such as dictionaries of terms, maps and materials. Choose and examine one of the Climate Literacy links. This document has recently been developed and released by NOAA to provide an overview of general concepts and information the general public and especially students should be aware of regarding the climate and the climate debate.

Concept of the Week: Questions

The first Climate Information link, "NOAA's Climate.gov", shows the Global Climate Dashboard where several graphs display Earth's temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide level, spring snow cover, etc. with a time slider than can be set to display from [(1800)(1880)(1940)] to the latest data in 2016.
Under the Societal Interactions and Climate Policy section, click the "Global Resilience Toolkit" link. The Toolkit has been designed to aid in working through climate change issues by communities. As the first step to building resilience, one should [(Prioritize actions)(Explore climate threats)].

Historical Events:

30 January 1966...Alabama's record low temperature of 27 degrees below zero was set at New Market. Mississippi's record low temperature of 19 degrees below zero was set near Corinth. North Carolina's record low temperature of 29 degrees below zero was set at Mount Mitchell. (Intellicast) The record for the Tarheel State has been broken with a reading of 34 degrees below zero in January 1985. (NCDC)
31 January 1911...Tamarack, CA was without snow the first eight days of the month, but by the end of January they had been buried under 390 inches of snow, a record monthly snowfall total for the U.S. By 11 March 1911, Tamarack had a record snow depth of 451 inches. (National Weather Service files)
31 January 1920...The highest barometric pressure observed in the contiguous forty-eight states was recorded at Northfield, VT with a reading of 31.14 inches of mercury (1054.5 millibars). (The Weather Doctor)
31 January 1963...The Mt. Rose Highway Station near Reno, NV reported 7.13 inches of precipitation, which set a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for Nevada. (NCDC)
31 January 1989...The barometer rose to 31.85 inches of mercury (1079.7 millibars) at Northway, AK, establishing the all time highest reading for the North American continent. (The Weather Doctor)
31 January 1994...Caribou, ME recorded its coldest month ever. The average temperature for the month was a frigid 0.7 degrees below zero. The old record was 1.3 degrees set in January 1957. (Intellicast)
1 February 1916...Seattle, WA was buried under 21.5 inches of snow, their greatest 24-hour snowfall. A total of 32.5 inches of wet snow accumulated over three days. The Seattle cathedral dome collapsed under the snow's weight. (National Weather Service files)
1 February 1985...The temperature at Gavial, NM dropped to a state record low of 50 degrees below zero. The state record low temperature in Colorado of 60 degrees below zero was tied at Maybell. A station at Peter's Sink, UT reported a temperature of 69 degrees below zero, which set the new all-time state record for Utah. (NCDC)
2 February 1951...The record low temperature for the state of Indiana was set at Greensburg when the mercury fell to 35 degrees below zero; this record was broken in January, 1994. (Intellicast)
2 February 1952...The only tropical storm of record to hit the U.S. in February moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and a cross southern Florida. It produced 60-mph winds, and two to four inches of rain. (2nd-3rd) (The Weather Channel)
2 February 1996...Extremely cold air covered the north-central U.S. Tower, MN dropped to 60 degrees below zero to set a new state low temperature record. International Falls, MN and Glasgow, MT both set records for the month of February with 45 and 38 below zero, respectively. Rochester, MN dipped to 34 below zero for its lowest temperature in 45 years. Green Bay, WI only reached 16 degrees below zero for the high temperature for the day, which is its lowest high temperature on record in February. Meanwhile, farther to the east, heavy snow fell across the mid-Atlantic region. Eighteen inches of snow was recorded at Rehoboth Beach, DE and 17 inches fell at Solomons, MD. Charleston, WV recorded 6.8 inches of snow for the day to bring its seasonal snowfall to 80.7 inches, the city's snowiest winter ever -- and still two months of winter to go! (Intellicast)
3 February 1917...Downtown Miami, FL reported an all-time record low of 27 degrees. Miami weather records date to 1911. (David Ludlum)
3 February 1947...The temperature at Tanacross, AK plunged to a record 75 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) At Snag, Yukon Territory, the temperature fell to 81.4 degrees below zero (Fahrenheit), North America's lowest recorded official temperature. (The Weather Doctor)
3 February 1996...Extremely cold weather persisted. Des Moines, IA dipped to 26 degrees below zero to tie its February low and broke its record for most consecutive hours below zero, which ended up being 132 hours. Milwaukee, WI also tied its record for lowest February temperature with 26 degrees below zero. The temperature at Tower, MN fell to 60 degrees below zero to set a new all-time state minimum temperature record for the Gopher State. The state record low was also tied in Iowa with Elkader reporting a frigid 47 below zero. Elizabeth, IL recorded 35 degrees below to tie the state lowest temperature record; this record has since been broken in January 1999. (Intellicast) (NCDC)
3 February 1997...Centralia, WA set the state record for consecutive days of measurable precipitation at 55 between 10 November 1996 and 3 February 1997. (The Weather Doctor)
4 February 1982...Barrow, AK reached 36 degrees on this date, marking their highest temperature ever recorded in February. In fact, this is the second time they climbed above freezing in the month of February, with the only other date was 14 February 2006 when the temperature reached 35 degrees. (National Weather Service files)
4 February 1996...Frigid temperatures continued over the northern US and spread southward to the Gulf Coast. A cooperative observer near Couderay, WI reported a temperature of 55 degrees below zero, which set a new record low for the Badger State. This reading is also the lowest temperature ever recorded east of the Mississippi River. Amasa, MI checked in with 51 degrees below zero, which tied the record low for Michigan. Tulsa, OK had a morning low of 11 degrees below zero for its lowest temperature in 66 years. Muskegon, MI recorded an all-time low of 19 degrees below zero. La Crosse, WI completed it longest stretch of subzero temperatures ever (144 hours). The center of the frigid arctic high-pressure system moved over Louisiana, setting an all-time record high barometric pressure of 30.82 inches (1043.6 millibars) at Baton Rouge. (Intellicast)
5 February 1887...San Francisco, CA experienced its greatest snowstorm of record. Nearly four (3.7) inches were reported in downtown San Francisco, and the tall western hills of the city received seven inches. Excited crowds went on a snowball-throwing rampage. (David Ludlum)
5 February 1892...The temperature at Verkhoyansk, Russia fell to -90F, the lowest temperature ever in the Northern Hemisphere. The record would be tied at the same location two days later and again at Oimaykon, Russia on 6 February 1933. (National Weather Service files)
5 February 1996...The "great arctic outbreak of '96" began to wind down, but not before one more frigid morning. Greene, RI reported a state record low temperature of 25 degrees below zero. (Intellicast)

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