WEEK FOUR: 20-24 February 2017

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Free admission into the National Parks -- This Monday (20 February 2017) has been designated by the National Park Service as a fee-free day in honor of Presidents Day. This fee waiver will cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks and monuments administered by the Park Service. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
• Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2017 Campaign is underway -- The second in the series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2017 will continue through Monday, 27 February. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Orion in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next series in the 2017 campaign is scheduled for 20-29 March 2017. [GLOBE at Night]
• Spring is on the horizon -- Although meteorological spring (March through May) will not start for another week, spring has to be near, especially for baseball fans across northern sections of the nation, as pitchers and catchers for all Major League Baseball clubs have reported to camps in Arizona and Florida.
• Recalling the "Great Arctic Outbreak" of February 1899 -- An arctic air mass spread across the nation during the first two weeks of February 1899 brought unprecedented low temperatures to many Southern and Eastern States. NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reviews the "Great Arctic Outbreak" of February 1899 when temperatures fell to 61 degrees below zero at Fort Logan, MT and to 2 degrees below zero in Tallahassee, FL, which remains the all-time record low for the Sunshine State. Ice formed on the Mississippi River near its mouth. Over 100 people lost their lives during this "Great Arctic Outbreak." [NOAA NCEI News]
• Monitoring the seasonal motions of the sun -- If you would like more background information concerning how the sun appears to across your local sky, along with how you can access the times of local sunrise and local sunset, for your hometown on any day throughout year, please read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• Review of national weather and climate for January 2017 -- Using preliminary data collected from the national network of surface weather stations, scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) have determined that the nationwide average temperature for the contiguous United States for the month of January 2017 was 3.5 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) average. This temperature makes the recently completed month the 18th warmest January since comprehensive national climate records began in 1895. The average maximum or daytime temperature across the "lower 48" states was 2.4 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average, or 31st highest in the 123-year records, while the average minimum or nighttime temperature was 4.6 Fahrenheit degrees above this long-term average, ranking the month's nighttime temperatures as the eighth highest since 1895. Essentially all states east of the Rockies experienced above to much above average January monthly temperatures. In fact, two dozen states running eastward from Texas to South Carolina and northward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes and the Northeast had January monthly average statewide temperatures ranking within the top ten highest for their respective states. Only five states from the central Rockies westward across the Great Basin to the Pacific Coast experienced below average January monthly temperatures.
  The scientists also found that last month was wetter than average, as the nationwide averaged January 2017 precipitation was 0.87 inches above the 20th century average, making January 2017 the ninth wettest January in 123 years. Most states reported average to much above average monthly precipitation totals. Only two states in the northwestern quadrant of the nation (Washington and Montana) had below average statewide precipitation. Ten states running from California eastward to Georgia, along with Wisconsin had statewide January precipitation totals that ranked in the top ten for their respective state records. .
  The January snow cover across the coterminous United States was the thirteenth largest in the 51-year period of record according to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. [NCEI State of the Climate]
  NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
• January national drought report -- NCEI has posted its January 2017 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index as an indicator, approximately two percent of the contiguous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of January, while 12 percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
• Eastern Australia experienced a heat wave in January 2017 -- A feature in the NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine called "Event Tracker" describes the heat wave that resulted in record or near record temperatures across eastern sections of Australia during the recent month of January 2017. Sydney, the capital of New South Whales, recorded its warmest January in history, while another city in New South Wales, Moree reported a record-setting 36 straight days of daytime maximums of 95 °F or higher. Interestingly, sections of western and northwestern Australia had below average temperatures. A sprawling high pressure system that extended upward through the troposphere persisted over the central and eastern sections of Australia through most of January was largely responsible for the above average temperatures across eastern Australia. Additional factors include near surface winds from the north brought warm air from the equatorial latitudes of the western Pacific across the continent and above average sea surface temperatures remained in the Tasman Sea to the south. [NOAA Climate.gov Event Tracker]
• Too much water in California leading to dam problems -- A feature called "Event Tracker" in NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine describes the concern that has been raised in central California recently as the record winter rains falling across the region have resulted in water levels in some of the reservoirs to reach capacity, after several years of low water levels associated with a persistent drought. Of major concern in the last few weeks has been the failure of a "safety valve" spillway at the Oroville Dam on the Feather River upstream of Sacramento, the state capital. With water levels on Lake Oroville behind the dam reaching capacity in early February, the Oroville Dam, the tallest dam in the nation, could suffer a catastrophic failure, followed by a major disaster downstream. The inflow of water into the Oroville Reservoir is analyzed over the last 21 years. [NOAA Climate.gov Event Tracker]
  Comparing natural-color images of central California generated from data obtained by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NASA/NOAA Suomi NPP (National Polar-orbiting Partnership) satellite in early November 2016 and mid February 2017 shows the changes in the region's landscape wrought by three months of heavy rain. The recent satellite shows swollen rivers that contain large quantities of sediment from rapid runoff and mudslides. Attention is directed to the changes in the size of Lake Oroville and the Sacramento River. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• International effort aims to map world's oceans by 2030 -- A global, non-profit mapping effort, known as GEBCO—the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans, is currently underway that will map the ocean floor by 2030. Currently, more than 85 percent of the ocean floor remains unmapped. A volunteer collaboration of scientists and institutions around the world is producing data sets and data products about the sea floor, including gridded bathymetric data sets, a world map and Gazetteer of Undersea Feature Names. This mapping effort is expected to affect many earth systems topics ranging from climate research and weather prediction to mineral resource exploration and fisheries. A seven-minute video is available that contains interviews with researchers talking about the importance of creating a global seafloor bathymetric map while attending the Forum for Future Ocean Floor Mapping in Monaco in June 2016. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News]

CLIMATE FORCING

• "The Blob" of warm water in North Pacific appears to have boosted ozone levels in US West -- According to research conducted by scientists from the University of Washington Bothell, "The Blob", a nickname given by the Washington state climatologist to a large patch of abnormally warm sea water that lingered off the North American West Coast from late 2013 into 2016 appears to be responsible for creating an atmospheric flow pattern conducive to elevated levels of low-level ozone concentrations along the Western States. The researchers took air samples from the peak of Oregon's Mount Bachelor and found that a strong offshore atmospheric flow pattern developed across the US West because of the presence of "The Blob" reduced air quality due to increased ozone levels above Washington, Oregon, northern California and western Utah. [University of Washington News]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

• Temperature is found to play an important role in guiding where animal species live and migrate -- Researchers from Princeton University, the University of Connecticut and the Wildlife Institute of India have found that air temperature and habitat determine the distribution where animals in the world's temperate mountain areas live. They base their conclusions on their two-year study of the distribution of 70 bird species across India's Himalayan Mountains, which indicates that temperature and habitat dictate where 48 and 40 percent of species, respectively, feather their nests, while competition other species sets the boundaries for only 12 percent of Himalayan bird species. [News at Princeton University]

CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH

• Public health and safety could improve by bringing satellite data to users -- A professor of environmental studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison is leading NASA's Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team (HAQAST) that includes 13 other atmospheric scientists and satellite experts in attempting to provide a two-way dialogue between the general public by not only sharing data collected by satellites with the general public, but to also place those new users in a position to shape the way satellite data is collected and used by addressing questions of social value. [University of Wisconsin-Madison News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• Seasonal weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their new national Seasonal Outlook for the next three months that consists of meteorological spring 2017 in the Northern Hemisphere (March-May). Specific details of their outlooks include:
  • Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, approximately two-thirds of the 48 contiguous states should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for Spring 2017. The greatest probability of unseasonably warm weather was to be found across the Southwest, centered upon Texas and New Mexico, along with adjoining sections of Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma and Louisiana, and across most of the New England States and Upstate New York. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the nation, running from southern California northward to the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington) and eastward to the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions. No areas of the nation were expected to have a high chance of having a cooler than average spring.
    Their precipitation outlook calls for the northern tier of states running from the Pacific Coast of Washington eastward to the northern Great Lakes to have a better than even chance of above average precipitation for Spring 2017. The Idaho Panhandle, Montana, North Dakota and northern Minnesota were given the highest chances for a wet spring. Conversely, sections of the Southwest centered upon southern sections of Arizona and New Mexico along with west Texas should have a better than even chance of below average spring precipitation. Elsewhere, a large area of the coterminous states should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for meteorological spring.
    A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part on the chance that ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation), had returned as of early February, as neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevailed across the equatorial Pacific Ocean basin. These ENSO-neutral conditions were expected to continue through Northern Hemisphere's meteorological spring (March-May). The forecasters' confidence on their outlook discussion for individual regions of the nation is given. A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
    
  • Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from mid-February through May 2017. Their outlook calls for the current drought conditions to persist through the forecast period across several widely sections of the nation that include southern Arizona, the eastern slopes of the Colorado Rockies along with the the high Plains in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska and the Oklahoma Panhandle. The southern sections of the Florida Peninsula should continue to see drought conditions or expect development of drought. Other sections of the nation that have been experiencing drought could have improvement in drought conditions, with a few areas possibly being removed from drought classification. These areas include southwestern California, the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming, the southern Plains of Oklahoma extending into the Ozark Plateau and the mid-Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley in the Southeast and area of the Northeast extending from the Middle Atlantic northward into New England.
    Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

CLIMATE MODELING

• Extreme ocean waves caught by high-resolution modeling -- Scientists at the US Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory recently reported on their development of higher resolution ocean wave models with 25-km resolution that better capture the high ocean waves associated with strong tropical cyclones such as tropical storms and hurricanes. These new models may allow forecasters to better estimate wind-generated wave action from these tropical cyclones and how the extreme waves upon coastal communities, shipping and offshore oil platforms. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory News]

• The Southeast begins to harness the wind for power -- While many other sections of the nation have been building wind farms to harness wind power as a renewable energy source over the last several decades, relatively few commercial wind farms have been built in the Southeastern States until recently. However, a 104-tower wind farm near Elizabeth City, NC recently has been put on the grid recently. This farm should be able to provide enough power for 61,000 homes per year. Several reasons, including climatological and topographical, have been enumerated as to why the Southeast has been slow to adopt wind power as a renewable energy source. [National Public Radio]
• Early Holocene cultures in China were altered by a changing monsoon regime -- Researchers from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Xi'an recently reported on their studies of the ancient water levels for Lake Dali, a closed-basin lake in Inner Mongolia. The researchers concluded that changes in the annual monsoon circulations over Asia during the last 10,000 years were a likely reason for alterations in the course of early human cultures in China. During the early to mid Holocene (11,000 to 5,500 years ago), lake levels were 60 meters higher than at present and the lake was six times larger as a strong summer monsoon sifted northward bringing abundant summer rains to northern China. When the monsoons shifted south, the lake level fell as rainfall diminished and the two early Neolithic societies, the Hongshan culture in North China and the Yangshao culture in central China, collapsed around 5000 years ago. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News]
• Severe erosion documented along West Coast during 2015-16 El Niño -- In a study released during this past week, US Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and their colleagues investigated 29 beaches along the US West Coast running from Washington state south to southern California for winter beach erosion during the 2015-16 winter, which featured one of the most powerful El Niño events in more than a century. The scientists surveyed the beaches, making 3-D surface maps and cross-shore profiles using aerial lidar (light detection and ranging), GPS topographic surveys, and direct measurements of sand levels, combined with wave and water level data at each beach, collectively spanning 1997-2016. Of the 29 beaches surveyed, the researchers found that winter beach erosion was 76 percent above normal, by far the highest ever recorded, and most beaches in California eroded beyond historical extremes. If severe El Niño events were to become more common in the future, this coastal region will become increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards, independently of projected sea level rise. [USGS News]
• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Climate and Architecture

Humans have been constructing houses and other buildings for thousands of years not only to protect themselves from the weather and other environmental factors, but also to create a comfortable indoor environment that would exhibit energy efficiency, especially in harsh climates. For centuries, natural or primitive housing reflected an adaptation to the climate of the locale and the availability of local building materials.

In order to maintain a tolerable level of comfort within a building, attention must be paid to thermal effects, ventilation, illumination and atmospheric humidity.

The indoor thermal state ultimately depends upon the building's energy budget involving incoming and outgoing radiation, latent and sensible heat loss and by interior heat sources or sinks. The indoor thermal level is mainly associated with the external energy load on the building. The external energy load on the building depends upon the latitude of the building, season of the year and time of day.

In tropical latitudes and during midday hours in summer, the sun's path across the local sky increases the solar radiation incident upon the roof and walls of the building. In polar latitudes, or during the winter or the amount of available sunlight is significantly lower, with the loss of infrared radiation causing a net cooling from the building. Changes in the color of the roof and the outer walls can affect the amount of incoming sunlight absorbed. Building orientation and the effective use of overhangs can also affect the amount of sunlight absorbed. Furthermore, the amount of insulation, often related to the thickness of the walls, reduces the conduction of heat into or out of the building. Thick adobe walls have been used effectively in the Southwest to moderate indoor temperature. These walls reduce the heat flow into the building during the daytime and in summer and out from the building at night or during winter.

The size and placement of windows also affects the energy balance. Large windows on the side of the building facing the sun's path tend to permit large amounts of sunlight to penetrate into the building. However, large windows on the side facing away from the sun can cause for heat loss due to conduction, as many types of windowpanes are not energy efficient.

Effective landscaping can reduce energy demands upon a dwelling: Deciduous trees planted on the south and west sides of the home provide cooling shade during the summer, keeping sunlight from entering the windows. These trees will lose their foliage in fall and allow the sun to shine through in winter, and warm south facing rooms. Evergreen trees or dense shrubbery on the north side can serve as a windbreak, which reduce the cold northerly winds from striking the house in winter.

Energy losses from buildings during the upcoming winter in northern latitudes can be seen readily by how quickly snow melts from roofs and by how big the icicles form. Heat losses from buildings occur with larger negative energy budgets, which are reflected also in higher heating bills during the winter season. However, the heating bills also depend upon the severity of the winter season that can be ascertained from the number of accumulated heating degree-day units. Check last week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth for how you can monitor the number of heating degree-day units to date in your state for this coming heating season.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. The thicker the outdoor walls, the [(greater),(less)] the heat flow into or out of a building.
2. Planting [(evergreen),(deciduous)] vegetation on the south side of a home in New England will help reduce winter heating and summer cooling bills.

Historical Events:

• 20 February 1995...The temperature at the Civic Center in Los Angeles, CA hit 95 degrees for the highest temperature ever recorded at that location for the month of February. (Intellicast)
• 21 February 1918...A spectacular chinook wind at Granville, ND caused the temperature to spurt from a morning low of 33 degrees below zero to an afternoon high of 50 degrees above zero, representing a rise of 83 Fahrenheit degrees. (David Ludlum)
• 21 February 1971...Elk City, OK was buried under 36 inches of snow to establish a 24-hour snowfall record for the Sooner State. (David Ludlum)
• 21 February 1996...Very hot weather for the time of year prevailed across South Texas. All-time February high temperatures were set at Del Rio (103 degrees), San Antonio (100 degrees), Austin and College Station (99 degrees), and Waco (96 degrees). (Intellicast)
• 22 February 1936...Although heat and dust prevailed in the spring and summer, early 1936 brought record cold to parts of the U.S. Sioux Center, IA reported 42 inches of snow on the ground, a state record. (20^th-22^nd) (The Weather Channel)
• 22 February 1996...Record heat continued over the south-central states. All-time February high temperatures were set at San Angelo, TX (97 degrees), Wichita Falls, TX (93 degrees), Oklahoma City, OK (92 degrees), and Wichita, KS (87 degrees). (Intellicast)
• 23 February 1998...Otis, OR recorded its 79 straight day of rain, the longest in the contiguous US. The streak began on 7 December 1997 (The Weather Doctor)
• 24 February 1905...The temperature at Valley Head, AL fell to 18 degrees below zero, which was the lowest temperature ever recorded in Alabama until January 1966. (Intellicast)
• 24-26 February 1910...Parts of Washington State were in the midst of a storm that produced 129 inches of snow at Laconia between the 24^th and the 26^th, a single storm record for the state. A series of storms, which began on the 23^rd, led to a deadly avalanche on the first of March. By late on the 28^th, the snow had changed to rain, setting the stage for disaster. (The Weather Channel)
• 24 February 1994...The Crystal Mountain ski resort in Washington State recorded 65 inches of snow in a 24-hour period, the state record for 24-hour snowfall. (Intellicast)
• 25 February 1914...South Carolina had its biggest snowstorm in modern history, as 18 inches fell at Society Hill. (Intellicast)
• 25 February 1922...The temperature at Los Angeles, CA soared to 92 degrees to establish a record for the month of February. (David Ludlum)
• 26 February 1969...Both Portsmouth, NH and Portland, ME set new single storm snowfall records with 33.8 inches and 26.9 inches, respectively. (Intellicast)
• 26 February 2007...The world record was set for 72-hour rainfall: 154.70 inches at Cratere Commerson, La Reunion. (National Weather Service files)
  

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@aos.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2017, The American Meteorological Society.