WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

SPRING BREAK WEEK: 13-17 March 2017

This is Break Week for the Spring 2017 offering of the DataStreme Earth Climate Studies course. This Weekly Climate News contains new information items and historical data, but the Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 6.

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Update on Cherry Blossom Watch in Washington, DC -- With cold weather spreading across the Middle Atlantic States, the National Park Service recently updated its prediction of peak bloom that it maintains on its website to 19-22 March 2017. The 2017 National Cherry Blossom Festival will run from Wednesday, 15 March through Sunday, 16 April 2017. This website also has a listing of the phenological observations for past bloom dates over the past 24 years. A graph of the occurrence of the dates of peak cherry blossom occurrence in Washington, DC beginning in 1921 and running through last year is also available.
Update on Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race -- After the ceremonial start of the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race in Anchorage one week ago Saturday, the official start of the race was in Fairbanks last Monday, a departure from a traditional start in Willow because of the lack of adequate snowpack across the Alaska Range in southern sections of Alaska. As of early Sunday many of the mushers had reached the Koyukuk this checkpoint 564 miles into the race.[Fairbanks Newsminer]
A website is maintained for teachers and students interested in following the progress of the Iditarod and a 4th- grade teacher from Chicago, IL, who is the "2017 Iditarod Teacher on the Trail™." Current weather conditions and weather forecasts for this year's checkpoint stations are available.
Viewing atmospheric circulation in three-dimensions -- Read this week's Supplemental Information.. In Greater Depth for information concerning the average circulation in the lower and upper troposphere.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Satellite data used to produce first global maps of volcanic emissions -- Researchers from Michigan Technological University and their colleagues from other institutions generated the first, global inventory for volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions, using data collected from the Dutch-Finnish Ozone Monitoring Instrument onboard NASA's Earth Observing System Aura satellite. Emissions data were collected by the team from 2005 to 2015 to produce annual estimates for each of 91 presently emitting volcanoes worldwide. The researchers envision this dataset to helpful in refining climate and atmospheric chemistry models, as well as providing additional insight into human and environmental health risks. Sample maps of volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions were produced for volcanically active areas in Indonesia and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Feature]
Three sounding rockets launched to study aurora over Alaska -- Scientists launched three instrumented NASA sounding rockets over a two-hour span earlier this month from Alaska's Poker Flat Research Range north of Fairbanks to study active aurora over the 49th State. These sounding rockets reached altitudes ranging between 118 and 227 miles above the Earth's surface to provide data for scientists studying the aurora (northern lights) and the interactions of the solar wind with the ionosphere and Earth's upper atmosphere. [NASA Feature]
First "flashy" images arrive from lightning mapper on GOES-16 -- During the last week the first images of lightning activity obtained from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) onboard the new GOES-16 satellite were released. The GLM images were superimposed upon full disk images from the satellite's Advanced Baseline Imager. Colors on these GLM images indicate more lightning activity as measured in kilowatt-hours of total optical emissions from the lightning. From the satellite's geosynchronous orbit, the Geostationary Lightning Mapper should continuously monitor lightning activity across most of the Western Hemisphere, providing forecasters with information as to when lightning storms begin or dissipate. [NOAA NESDIS News] or [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Feature]

CLIMATE FORCING

Improvement in the simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is made --Researchers from the University of Hawaii, Colorado State University and China's Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology have evaluated current computer models that simulate the development and eastward movement of the Madden-Julian Oscillation across tropical latitudes. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a large-scale disturbance in the atmospheric wind, cloud and precipitation patterns that typically recur every 30 to 60 days. The researchers' model inter-comparison revealed that a model's ability to successfully simulate this movement depends upon whether the model captures atmospheric response in areas of light rain following intense storms. [NOAA Climate Program Office News]
Humans responsible for most of nation's wildfires -- In a study conducted by researchers from the Universities of Colorado, Massachusetts and Idaho, humans have either intentionally or accidently triggered the majority of wildfires across the contiguous United States. During a span running from 1992 through 2012, approximately 84 percent of the reported wildfires where firefighters were summoned were started by humans, especially across the eastern half of the nation and along the Pacific Coast. Only in sections of the Rockies and the Intermountain West was lightning the main culprit for wildfire initiation. Currently, public dialog and ongoing research have tended to focus on increasing wildfire risk due to a warming climate and not on humans expanding the fire niche. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Updated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion is released -- Late last week forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) released their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion. They reported an ENSO-neutral situation during February 2017 with neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions as near normal sea surface temperatures (SST) were found across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, but above average SST values were located in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Most of the prediction models used by the forecasters indicate a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through late spring and early summer in the Northern Hemisphere (May-July), with a increasing chances for development of an El Niño during autumn. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
An ENSO blog was written by a contractor with NOAA's CPC describing the current ENSO-neutral conditions across the equatorial Pacific. A discussion is made of the modeling efforts used by the CPC forecasters and their colleagues to make forecasts of the sea surface temperatures over sections of the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first three months of 2018. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
An El Niño forecast from Down Under -- Forecasters with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology recent reported that several ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) indicators suggest that the current ENSO-neutral conditions could develop into an El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during this calendar year of 2017. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has been upgraded to an El Niño WATCH, meaning the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 is approximately 50%. [Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Songbirds in deserts of US Southwest could be at risk in a warming climate -- Researchers at the University of New Mexico and the University of Nevada warn that increasing temperatures across the US Southwest due to increases in the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves associated with a changing climate could be putting songbirds at a greater risk of death due to dehydration and mass die-offs. The researchers mapped the potential effects of current and future heat waves on lethal dehydration risk for songbirds in the Southwest and how rapidly dehydration can occur in each species based upon rates of evaporative water loss they calculated for five bird species during times of elevated temperatures. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Feature]
Ocean acidification appears to be spreading rapidly across Arctic basin -- Scientists from NOAA and their colleagues from academic research institutions in China, the US and Sweden recently reported that between the 1990s and 2010 the acidity of the waters in the Arctic Ocean's Chukchi Sea to the north of Alaska increased in areal size and depth. Acidification of the ocean waters is the result of increased amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide becoming dissolved in the ocean waters. An increased flow of Pacific winter water from the North Pacific into the Arctic during winter appears to be responsible for the expansion of the acidic water into the Arctic. This increased acidification is potentially harmful to shellfish, along with other types of marine species in the food web. Communities dependent upon shellfish and marine resources could be at risk. [NOAA News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Picking a right spot for offshore wind energy -- A 16-minute NOAA Ocean Podcast was produced that contains an interview with two scientists from NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science who describe how they and other NOAA scientists have conducted a variety of surveys using marine biogeography to help locate the best locations to place potential future alternative energy sites in the ocean. Marine biogeography entail the study of marine species, the geographic distribution of their habitats, and the relationships between living organisms and the environment. As an example of the four-step biogeographic assessment process, the scientists who were interviewed discussed their work on a project to develop an offshore wind energy project in Hawaii. [NOAA National Ocean Service Podcast]
A human's favorite color may depend upon the season -- .... A psychologist from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and her colleagues recently reported that a person's favorite colors may depend upon the season, with cool blues preferred during winter, festive pastels ins spring, vibrant colors in summer and a leafy palette of warm, dark colors in fall. [National Public Radio]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

This Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 6.

Concept of the Week: Tropospheric westerly winds, north and south

The theoretical existence of upper tropospheric jet stream winds were not confirmed until being encountered by World War II bomber pilots when heading west into strong headwinds at altitudes of approximately 30,000 feet (10,000 m). Wind speeds sometimes exceeded 170 mph causing their relatively slow, heavily laden aircraft to almost stand still. Subsequently, westerly jet stream winds were found to encircle the planet in midlatitudes of both hemispheres above regions of strong temperature contrasts.

The explanation for these winds involves atmospheric mass distributions and forces on a rotating planet. Air in tropical latitudes is warmed, rises and then flows poleward, both north and south. On a rotating planet, moving air is deflected by the Coriolis effect, to the right in the Northern Hemisphere (and left in the Southern). The greater the temperature differences between warm lower and cold higher latitudes, the stronger the air motions and the faster the jet streams. The vertical temperature patterns result in the highest wind speeds near the top of the troposphere.

So Northern Hemisphere air headed northward, deflected to the right ends up headed east, a "westerly wind." In the Southern Hemisphere, southward moving air, deflected left will also go east, as a westerly wind. These "rivers" of strong upper-level winds steer surface weather systems as they move generally eastward across midlatitudes. They also provide boosts for jet aircraft headed eastward with them, but need to be avoided for going west! Of course, the full story is complex as land (especially mountains) and water surfaces interact with the heating of the air and eddies form in the turbulent flows, so jet streams wander. And with them go the storms and the weather patterns that form our short-term climate.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The Northern Hemisphere jet stream winds would be directed such that cold air is [(to the left),(to the right),(directly ahead)] of their forward motion.
In the Southern Hemisphere, the jet stream winds to be directed generally toward the [(south), (east), (west)].

Historical Events:

13-15 March 1952...The world's 5-day rainfall record was set when a tropical cyclone produced 151.73 inches of rain at Cilos, Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean. The 73.62 inches that fell in a 24-hour period (15^th-16^th) set the world's 24-hour rainfall record. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)
13 March 1993...The "Great Blizzard of '93" clobbered the eastern US and produced perhaps the largest swath of heavy snow ever recorded. Heavy snow was driven to the Gulf Coast with 3 inches falling at Mobile, AL and up to 5 inches reported in the Florida Panhandle, the greatest single snowfall in the state's history. Thirteen inches blanketed Birmingham, AL to set not only a new 24-hour snowfall record for any month, but also set a record for maximum snow depth, maximum snow for a single storm, and maximum snow for a single month. Tremendous snowfall amounts occurred in the Appalachians. Mount Leconte in Tennessee recorded an incredible 60 inches. Mount Mitchell in North Carolina was not far behind with 50 inches. Practically every official weather station in West Virginia set a new 24-hour record snowfall. Farther to the north, Pittsburgh, PA measured 25 inches, Albany, NY checked in with 27 inches, and Syracuse, NY was buried under 43 inches. The major population corridor from Washington, DC to Boston, MA was not spared this time as all the big cities got about a foot of snow before a changeover to rain. A rather large amount of thunderstorm activity accompanied the heavy snow. Winds to hurricane force in gusts were widespread. Boston recorded a gust to 81 mph, the highest wind gust at that location since hurricane Edna in 1954. Numerous cities in the south and mid Atlantic states recorded their lowest barometric pressure ever as the storm bottomed out at 960 millibars (28.35 inches of mercury) over Chesapeake Bay. Some 208 people were killed by the storm and total damage was estimated at $6 billion-- the costliest extratropical storm in history. (Intellicast)
14 March 1944...A single storm brought a record 21.6 inches of snow to Salt Lake City UT. (The Weather Channel)
14 March 1984...A coastal storm dumped very heavy snow over northern New England. Caribou, ME received 28.6 inches of snow in 24 hours, by far its greatest 24-hour snowfall on record. (Intellicast)
15 March 1892...A winter storm in southwestern and central Tennessee produced 26 inches of snow at Riddleton, and 18.5 inches at Memphis, resulting in the deepest snow of record for those areas. (David Ludlum)
15 March 1906...The temperature at Snake River, WY dipped to 50 degrees below zero, a record for the U.S. for the month of March. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders -1987)
15 March 1952...Over 72 (73.62) inches of rain fell on Cilaos, Reunion Island in the western Indian Ocean, the greatest global 24-hour total rainfall. (The Weather Doctor)
15 March 2004...Rain at Brownsville, TX broke a century-old precipitation record for the greatest daily rainfall accumulation for March with 3.23 inches . (The Weather Doctor)
16 March 1975...A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake OR establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)
16-17 March 2002...A snowstorm dumped 28.7 inches of snow on Anchorage, AK breaking the old daily record of 15.6 inches. Snow amounts ranged from 24 to 29 inches at lower elevations. (The Weather Doctor)
17 March 1906...The temperature at Snake River, WY dipped to 50 degrees below zero, a record for the coterminous U.S. for the month of March. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders -1987)
17 March 1998...Calgary, Alberta experienced its worst March snowstorm in 113 years, measuring 13 inches of snow at the airport and from 15 to 18 inches in other parts of the city. (The Weather Doctor)
17-24 March 1999...Intense Tropical Cyclone Vance (Category 5) moved across portions of Western Australia. A record wind gust for the Australian mainland of 167 mph was recorded at the Learmonth Meteorological Office. (The Weather Doctor)
18 March 1914...San Francisco, CA reached its highest temperature ever recorded in March. The mercury rose to 86 degrees. (Intellicast)
18 March 1925...The great "Tri-State Tornado" occurred, the most deadly tornado in U.S. history. The tornado, which claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro, IL and 148 at West Frankfort, IL), cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
18 March 2002...A snowstorm over coastal British Columbia produced the latest and heaviest single-day snowfall on record for the city of Vancouver of 2.55 inches. (The Weather Doctor)
19 March 1950...Timberline Lodge on Mount Hood reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel)
19 March 1964...Up to 39 inches of snow fell at Cape Whittle for Quebec's greatest one-day snow total. (The Weather Doctor)

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