WEEK ELEVEN: 17-21 April 2017

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Free admission into the National Parks and Monuments-- In observance of National Park Week (15-23 April 2017), the National Park Service will waive entrance fees beginning this coming weekend (22-23 April). This fee waiver will cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks and monuments administered by the Park Service. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
• Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2017 Campaign commences -- The fourth in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2017 will commence this Tuesday (18 April) and continue through Thursday, 27 April. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Leo in the Northern Hemisphere and Crux in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next series in the 2017 campaign is scheduled for 17-26 May 2017. [GLOBE at Night]
• Large asteroid to make close approach to Earth this week -- Astronomers are predicting a large asteroid identified as Asteroid 2014 JO25 will safely pass within 1.1 million years of Earth early this Wednesday (19 April 2017), or approximately 4.6 times the Earth-Moon distance. This asteroid will be large, as it is reported to have a diameter of approximately 2000 feet, or 60 times the diameter of the asteroid that penetrated into the atmosphere over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013. The public may be able to see the asteroid with small telescope, while scientists should be able to study it using both radar and optical observations. Apparently, this week's passage of Asteroid 2014 JO25 should be the closest it has been to Earth in at least 400 years. [EarthSky]
• Celebrate Earth Day --This Saturday (22 April 2017) marks the 47th Earth Day, first proposed by the late Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin in 1970 as a teach-in to heighten awareness of the environment. The Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has posted a website called "Gaylord Nelson and Earth Day: The Making of the Modern Environmental Movement" that highlights Senator Nelson and his idea became Earth Day. Several governmental websites provides links to various activities and resources planned for this week, including a website maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).NASA is inviting people from around the world to virtually "adopt" one of 64,000 individual pieces of Earth as seen from space. By clicking on go.nasa.gov/adopt and adopting a piece of the planet, the visitor to this site will receive a personalized adoption certificate for a unique numbered piece of Earth (on average 55 miles wide) to print and share on social media. Four data layers for this location will be provided that include data on chlorophyll, relative humidity, sea surface temperature and cloud top height. [NASA Goddard Feature]
• New "Night Light" maps from satellites are available for download -- NASA scientists recently released numerous satellite images of planet Earth at night on the NASA Earth Observatory's "Night Light" website. These nighttime images have been obtained from low-light sensors onboard orbiting satellite platforms such as the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NASA/NOAA Suomi NPP satellite. The data obtained from the satellite have been subjected to various enhancement techniques using computer algorithms developed by NASA and partner institutions. The recently released images supplement earlier nighttime images obtained from the US Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites beginning in the early 1970s. In addition to spectacular views of Earth at night, these images can provide planetary scientists and researchers from other disciplines with an indication of how urban areas have expanded and increased the intensity of artificial illumination over the last several decades. Additional uses of these new images involve weather forecasting, surveillance of sea ice and the monitoring of unregulated or unreported fishing. [NASA Earth Observatory]
• National maps of frost/freeze provide guidance for spring planting -- The Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) is hosting is a monitoring, assessment, and networking program called the Vegetation Impact Program (VIP) that is studying major impacts upon vegetation driven by weather and climate conditions. VIP has a Frost/Freeze Guidance Project that is intended to improve communication about the state of vegetation and its susceptibility to potentially damaging low air temperatures. A suite of national frost/freeze maps is available that show current season freezes and climatologies of freezes using 32 degrees and 28 degrees Fahrenheit temperature thresholds. [MRCC Vegetation Impact Program ] (Note: Clicking on a location on any of the frost/freeze national maps will expand the map to focus on a regional view centered upon three or four states. EJH)
• Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• March 2017 weather and climate for the nation reviewed -- Scientists at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data collected during the month of March 2017. When averaged across the contiguous United States, the monthly temperature for March 2017 was 46.2 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 4.7 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century (1901-2000) average. Therefore, this past month was the ninth warmest March since a comprehensive climate network began in 1895.
  Most of the 48 contiguous states from the Mississippi Valley westward to the Pacific Coast experienced above to much above average statewide temperatures in March, with thirteen states across the Plains, Rockies and Intermountain West reporting temperatures that were in the top eleven in the 123-year period of record. Colorado and New Mexico reported their highest March state temperatures on record. On the other hand, the five New England States and New York State had below average state temperatures for March. A few Middle Atlantic and Midwestern States had temperatures near normal. The average maximum (or daytime) temperature for this past March across the "lower 48" was the eleventh highest on record, while the average minimum (or nighttime) temperature was the eighth highest.
  Alaska reported its twelfth coldest March in their 93-year period of record, with a monthly average temperature that was 6.7 Fahrenheit degrees below the long-term average.
  The average precipitation across the contiguous US for March 2016 was 2.56 inches, which was 0.05 inches above the 20th-century average, making the month the 51st wettest (or 73rd driest) March since 1895. States along the Gulf Coast and Southeastern Atlantic coast reported below to much below average precipitation, with Florida experiencing its ninth driest March on record, while Georgia had its twelfth driest March. Several other states along the Eastern Seaboard, the Upper Midwest and in the Southwest had below average precipitation. On the other hand, states in the northwestern quadrant of the nation, along with the central Plains and the Midwest had statewide precipitation totals that were above to much above average. Idaho, Oregon and Washington had statewide March precipitation amounts that ranked within the top ten wettest in their respective state histories.
  Data analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab indicate the March snow cover extent across the contiguous US was the 19th smallest areal extent for the 51-year period of record across the 48 contiguous states. While above-average snow cover was reported across the Northwest, sections of the Midwest and the Northeast, below-average snow cover was found across the Plains and the Great Basin. [State of the Climate NOAA/NCEI]
  NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCDC]
• March national drought report -- The National Centers for Environmental Information has posted its March 2017 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately five percent of the contiguous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of March, while approximately fourteen percent of the nation had severely to extremely wet conditions at that time.
  

• Monitoring the formation of an iceberg from space -- A sequence of three images obtained from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite in August and December of 2016 and in early April 2017 shows the steady expansion and lengthening of a crack in Antarctica's Larsen C Ice Shelf. This ice shelf is a slab of ice floating along the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Eventually, the crack on the ice shelf will result in the loosing of an iceberg that will become detached from the main ice shelf. [NASA Earth Observatory]
• Photos of meltwater channels on a Canadian glacier obtained from research aircraft -- Two photographs were made of the meltwater channel features seen on an ice field on Canada's Ellesmere Island during a flight as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge in late March. One of the photos was made from the Digital Mapping System, a high-resolution digital camera mounted under the P-3 Orion research aircraft, while the other photo was taken by a research scientist with his handheld digital camera. [NASA Earth Observatory]
• A network of underwater gliders employed to develop a climatology of the California Current System -- A research team of scientists from Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution have produced a climatology of the California Current System, a southward flowing current along the US West Coast, using data collected from underwater gliders. The California Current ecosystem is a highly productive eastern boundary current that supports a diverse array of marine wildlife and fisheries. These gliders were a part of the California Underwater Glider Network. [NOAA Climate Program Office News]
• Knowledge of ENSO events enhanced by two decades of Pacific buoy observations -- Researchers from the University of Washington and NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory have used surface wind observations gathered from the TAO/TRITON array of buoys in the tropical Pacific to obtain a better understanding of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperatures through determining the wind stress across the equatorial Pacific basin. The TAO/TRITON array was first established with 70 moored buoys as a part of the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) project in 1994, but then renamed the TAO/TRITON in January 2000 to recognize the introduction of TRITON (Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network) buoys in the western Pacific by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. [NOAA Climate Program Office News]
• Milestone reached in the Global Drifter Program -- In mid-March 2017, more than half of the satellite-tracked ocean drifters that are part of the Global Drifter Program were using the Iridium satellite system, replacing the Argos system. The transition to the Iridium system was proposed in November 2014 to achieve cost savings for NOAA and to provide timely data worldwide. The aim is that 80 percent of the drifters will be Iridium serviced by mid 2019. [NOAA Climate Program Office News]

CLIMATE FORCING

• Changing climate poses an increased risk to permafrost -- A recent study conducted by an international team of researchers reports that increased temperatures associated with changing climate conditions would thaw approximately 20 percent more permafrost landscape than previously thought. When permafrost thaws, greenhouse gases trapped in the frozen permafrost soils are released into the atmosphere and the soil becomes less stable, which often results in damage to structures built on it. Approximately 35 million people live on permafrost landscapes. [UK Met Office News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• Updated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion is released -- Late last week forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) released their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion. They reported an ENSO-neutral situation continued through March 2017 featuring near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, but above-average SST values located in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Consequently, neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevailed. Many of the prediction models used by the forecasters indicate a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through late spring and early summer in the Northern Hemisphere (May-June). However, some of the models were pointing to an onset of an El Niño during by the start of boreal summer (June). Therefore, the CPC's ENSO Alert System Status was not activated. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
  An ENSO blog was written by a contractor with IRI describing the current ENSO-neutral conditions across the equatorial Pacific and the difficulty that the CPC and IRI forecasters are having detecting a clear signal as to when an El Niño would develop in the next three to six months. Attention was focused upon the "coastal El Niño," where the pool of above average SST values was limited to the coastal waters off of South America, while below-average SST values were detected farther west. A comparison was also made of the output information generated by the sets of statistical and dynamical models used to make forecasts of SSTs over sections of the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the end of 2017. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
• An El Niño forecast from Down Under -- Forecasters with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology recent reported that although ENSO-neutral conditions were continuing currently, they foresaw development of an El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during this calendar year of 2017. Therefore, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status remains as an El Niño WATCH, meaning the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 is approximately 50%. [Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Climate conditions are not sole culprit for current African famine -- A contractor with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center wrote an article for the Climate Tracker feature that discusses the current famine that has spread from sections of South Sudan into Nigeria and Somalia. He notes the while famine is typically associated with drought, apparently climate conditions are not the sole culprit, since famine is about food security and scarcity. Political instability and fighting is also impacting the ability of the population to get food and water. In addition to drought associated with a lack of rainfall, too much rain can cause flooding, destroying crops. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
2. The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

• 17 April 1948...A ten-minute deluge dumped 34 mm (1.34 inches) of rain on Tauranga, the wettest 10 minutes ever recorded on New Zealand. (The Weather Doctor)
• 17 April 1997...The Red River of the North crested at Fargo, ND, with a record crest of 39.6 ft, which is 22.6 ft above flood stage. This record flood, produced by several major winter storms, heavy spring rain, rapid snow melt, and ice jams, was responsible for at least 11 deaths (7 in North Dakota and 4 in Minnesota) and tremendous property damage along with large scale evacuations of residents from the Grand Forks metropolitan area. Dikes along the river gave way. Overall damage and cleanup costs have been estimated to range from $1 to $2 billion in Grand Forks, where a portion of the downtown burned as firefighters had a difficult time reaching the buildings due to the flood. [NCDC]
  Editor's Note: "History repeats!" During the second week of April 2001, the Red River at Grand Forks reached a river stage of 45 ft, or approximately 17 ft above flood stage and about 7 ft below the top of the levee. In 1997 this gauge measured a record 54.35 ft. EJH
• 17 April 2004...A 182-day long streak of no measurable rain began in San Diego, CA. The streak ended on 17 October 2004. (National Weather Service files)
• 18 April 2004...A record 182 consecutive days of no measurable precipitation began in San Diego, CA on this date, which ended on 17 October 2004 with 0.09 inches of rain. This new record broke the 181-day record set the previous year. Interestingly, the rain that followed the more recent dry spell resulted in October 2004 becoming San Diego's wettest month on record (4.98 inches). (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
• 19 April 1973...Glenrock, WY received 41 inches of snow in just 24 hours, and a storm total of 58 inches, to establish two state records. (18th-20th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 20 April 1880...Sacramento, CA had its heaviest 24-hour rainfall when 7.24 inches fell. (Intellicast)
• 20 April 1901...A spring storm produced unusually heavy snow in northeast Ohio. Warren received 35.5 inches in thirty-six hours, and 28 inches fell at Green Hill. Akron established April records of 15.6 inches in 24 hours, and 26.6 inches for the month. Pittsburgh, PA established April records of 12.7 inches in 24 hours, and 13.5 inches for the month. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 20 April 1984...A temperature of 106 degrees in Del Rio, TX set a new record high for April. (Intellicast)
• 20 April 1987...Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The high of 92 degrees at Memphis, TN was a record for April, and the high of 94 degrees at Little Rock, AR equaled their April record. (The National Weather Summary)
• 20 April 1989...Hot weather spread from the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains Region. Twenty-three cities reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 104 degrees at Tucson, AZ was an April record, and highs of 87 degrees at Provo, UT, 90 at Pueblo, CO, and 85 at Salt Lake City, UT, equaled April records. (The National Weather Summary)
• 21 April 1989...The temperature at Las Animas, CO soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record for April. Twenty-two cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Eight cities equaled or exceeded previous April records. Tucson, AZ experienced its fourth consecutive day of record heat with an afternoon high of 104 degrees, bringing the total number of days during the month of April 1989 to 11 when record high values had either been matched or broken. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary) (Intellicast)
• 21 April 1992...Two inches of snow fell at International Falls, MN, bringing the winter season snowfall to 106.7 inches and setting a new all-time record for the city. The old record was 104.7 inches set back in the 1988-89 winter season. (Intellicast) Editor's Note: The seasonal snowfall accumulation for the 2008-09 winter reached a record 125.6 inches. EJH
• 22 April 2003...Tropical Storm Ana formed in the southwestern North Atlantic Ocean, becoming the first Atlantic tropical storm (since records began in 1871) to form during the month April. Maximum sustained winds reached 50 mph. (The Weather Doctor)
• 23 April 1910...The temperature at the Civic Center in Los Angeles, CA hit 100 degrees to establish an April record for the city. (The Weather Channel)
• 23 April 1989...Salina, KS was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 105 degrees. The high of 105 degrees established an April record for the state of Kansas. A total of eighteen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)
• 23 April 1996...One inch of snow on this day at Cleveland, OH brought its seasonal snowfall to 101.1 inches -- the city snowiest winter ever. The old record was 100.5 inches set in 1981-82. (Intellicast)

Return to ECS RealTime Climate Portal

Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@aos.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2017, The American Meteorological Society.