WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

27-31 May 2013

DataStreme Earth Climate Systems will return for Fall 2013 with new Investigations files starting during Preview Week, Monday, 2 September 2013. All the current online website products will continue to be available throughout the summer break period.

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Spring comes to interior Alaska -- The ice on the Tanana River at Nenana officially went out last Monday evening (20 May 2013 at 2:41 PM, Alaska Standard Time). This date represents the latest breakup on record in the 97-year old Ice Classic, which was three hours later than the previous record set in 1964. The median date for ice-breakup is 5 May. [Nenana Ice Classic] Only one winner will get the entire jackpot for this year's famous 97th annual Nenana Ice Classic of $318,500.00. [Fairbanks Daily News-Miner] NOTE: A graph of the date of ice-out for each year since the Classic was started in 1917 has been plotted by this editor. EJH
Change in season -- Meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere, the three-month span from March through May, concludes on Friday (31 May 2013), while meteorological summer (June, July and August) will commence on the following day.
Atlantic Hurricane Season begins -- The hurricane season in the North Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico will begin this coming Saturday, 1 June. In the Eastern North Pacific basin, the hurricane season began on 15 May. The season will run until 30 November 2013 in both basins. NOAA has declared the week of 26 May-1 June 2013 to be Hurricane Awareness Week across the nation.
Redesigned climate website unveiled to build a "climate-smart nation" -- NOAA officials announced this past week that they have unveiled a redesigned Climate.gov website that includes expanded content and simplifying access to new data tools, imagery and educational resources. This site is meant to be a one-stop resource containing climate data from NOAA and other federal agencies. The new tools include the Global Climate Dashboard and the Integrated Map Application.
GOES-15 covers for GOES-13 -- Late last Tuesday (Eastern Time), NOAA's GOES-13 satellite, which is also known as GOES-East as its primary view is of the eastern two-thirds of the nation and the Atlantic basin, lost its ability to keep its sensors pointed toward Earth. NOAA engineers were able to quickly place the agency's NOAA's GOES-15 satellite (or GOES-West) into a mode that would permit continued coverage of the weather across the continental United States without interruption. The European Metosat-10 satellite will provide coverage across the Atlantic basin. The backup satellite GOES-14 has resumed the area of coverage provided by GOES-13 as of this past Friday. [NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory]

CIMSS Blog, Space Science and Engineering Center

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Oklahoma tornadoes not due to climate change -- Several tornado experts claim that the occurrence of the massive EF-5 tornado (on the that ripped through the suburbs of Oklahoma City last week killing 24 people appeared to be an example of extreme weather rather than of a climate change. [Time-Science]
Global temperatures for April 2013 reviewed -- Using preliminary data collected from the global network of surface weather stations, scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center report that the combined global land and ocean surface temperature for April 2013 was approximately 0.94 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) average, making the month the 13th highest for any April since global climate records began in 1880. While many locations across Greenland, southern Europe, central Asia, Far East Russia southwestern Australia and southern Argentina experienced above average April temperatures, below average temperatures were reported across North America, northern and western Europe, northeastern Asia, central South America, and most of equatorial Africa. The scientists also reported that when considered separately, the average land temperature was the 17th highest for any April since 1880, while the temperature over the oceans tied 2001 and 2009 for the ninth highest April temperature. Although sea-surface temperatures for the month were generally above average, neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean resulted in sea surface temperatures that were below average in the far eastern equatorial Pacific. Data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center indicated that the average Arctic sea ice extent was the seventh smallest monthly April extent on record, while the Antarctic sea ice extent was the fifth largest April Antarctic sea ice extent on record. [NOAA/NCDC State of the Climate]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Historic ocean data collected by Challenger expedition reveals climate change -- Researchers from Australia's University of Tasmania and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have combined measurements of ocean temperatures made at various depths by the HMS Challenger during its oceanographic expedition in the early 1870s with modern observations obtained from the international Argo array of ocean profiling floats. These two data sets were used in state-of-the-art climate models to see how the world's oceans have changed since the Challenger voyage. The researchers claim that warming of Earth can be clearly detected since 1873, with the ocean absorbing the majority of the heat. They also mention that thermal expansion of sea water caused by global warming contributed about 40 percent of the total sea level rise seen in tide gauges from 1873 to 1955, with the remaining 60 percent was likely to have come from the melting of ice sheets and glaciers. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory]
Sensors for new seafaring satellite sent to France -- During the previous week, three instruments built by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA that are integral components of the next series of U.S./European ocean altimetry satellites have arrived in France for integration with their Jason-3 spacecraft. The three instruments are a microwave radiometer and two location-finding systems. The Jason-3 satellite, which is scheduled to be launched in 2015 launch, will extend the two-decade series of satellites that track global sea level changes and enable more accurate weather, ocean and climate forecasts. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory]
Nation's aquifers being depleted at increasing rate -- The US Geological Survey (USGS) recently released a study entitled "Groundwater Depletion in the United States (1900-2008)" that evaluated long-term cumulative depletion volumes in 40 separate aquifers (distinct underground water storage areas) across the United States. This study reports that the nation's aquifers are being drawn down at an accelerating rate due to increased demand from human activity that exceeds replenishment by precipitation or other water sources. In addition, the depletion of groundwater between 2000 and 2008 in the US can explain more than two percent of the observed global sea-level increase during the same time span. [USGS Newsroom]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes -- A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

Viewing an Alaskan volcano erupting from space -- Astronauts onboard the International Space Station took several digital photographs of Alaska's active Pavlof Volcano and the ash plume emanating from this volcano one week ago. The Pavlof Volcano, which is located along the Alaska Peninsula to the southwest of Anchorage, began to erupt in mid-May. The eruption produced a volcanic plume that contained ash, gas and steam emission. This plume reached an altitude of approximately 20,000 feet and upper tropospheric winds spread the plume toward the southeast across the North Pacific. Aviation interests and the public were alerted to the presence of the plume. [NASA Earth Observatory]
New satellite detects nearly invisible thin high clouds -- Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and the US Geological Survey have noted that nearly invisible thin high level cirriform clouds can be detected with the Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor onboard the new Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) satellite launched by NASA in February. These clouds reflect some of the sunlight in one of several separate wavelength bands of light that OLI can detect. By the end of this month, operational responsibility of this LDCM satellite will be turned over to the US Geological Survey and renamed Landsat 8. [NASA Earth Observatory]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Speculation of cosmic impact contributed to Younger Dryas supported -- A geologist from the University of California, Santa Barbara and associates claim that their analysis of impact spherules collected from 18 sites located in nine countries on four continents occurred at the same time at approximately 12,800 years ago and that the impact was responsible for rapidly reversing the warming trend Earth was experiencing, resulting in a cooling called the "Younger Dryas" cool episode. The researchers also note that this cooling coincided with the abrupt extinction of large animals in the Americas and the disappearance of the prehistoric Clovis culture from the Southwest. [University of California, Santa Barbara]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Hurricane outlooks issued -- In anticipation of the start of Hurricane Awareness Week, scientists with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released their outlooks for the upcoming hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, the eastern Pacific and central Pacific Basins:

For the North Atlantic basin, the outlook indicates an active hurricane season in 2013. Specifically, the outlook calls for a 70-percent chance that the basin could experience 13 to 20 named tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms with sustained surface winds of at least 39 mph). These numbers would exceed the long-term average of 12 named tropical cyclones per year in the North Atlantic, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Of these 13 to 20 named systems, seven to eleven hurricanes could develop, of which three to six could become major hurricanes (Category 3 hurricanes or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale). Based upon long-term averages, six hurricanes normally form during each year. Three of these hurricanes typically become major hurricanes. The forecasters anticipate a very active Atlantic hurricane season because of a combination of three factors favoring tropical cyclone development: warmer than average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea; a summer and early autumn in which an El Niño event was not expect to develop that would suppress Atlantic hurricane formation; and a continuation of the 18-year long atmospheric climate pattern that includes a strong west African monsoon which appears responsible for an ongoing era of highly active Atlantic hurricane seasons. NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just before the historical peak of the season. [NOAA News]
An image of the sea-surface temperature anomalies (differences between observed and long-term average temperatures) made from data collected by NOAA/NASA satellites late last week shows above average temperatures across the eastern tropical Atlantic, a breeding ground for tropical cyclones. [NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory]
For the Eastern North Pacific basin (east of 140 degrees West longitude), the outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center suggests a near-normal hurricane season. This outlook would call for a 70 percent chance of the formation of between 11 and 16 named tropical cyclones, with five to eight hurricanes. One to four major hurricanes (category 3 or higher) were also envisioned. These anticipated numbers compare with the 45-year average of 15 named tropical cyclones per year that include eight hurricanes and as many as four major hurricanes. [Note: Tropical Storm Alvin, the season’s first named storm, developed on 15 May, the first day of the official eastern North Pacific hurricane season.] The forecasters point to two climate factors that would keep projected numbers in 2013 below the long-term average: a continuation of the climate pattern, which began in 1995, responsible for the current era of low hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific and to the anticipated continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions, with near or slowly below average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. [NOAA News]
For the Central North Pacific basin (between 180 degrees and 140 degrees West longitude), forecasters at NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center in collaboration with their colleagues at the Climate Prediction Center expect that the upcoming hurricane season would have a better than even chance (70 percent) of below normal activity. They called for one to three tropical cyclones to affect the central North Pacific in 2013, either forming with in the basin or entering it from the Eastern Pacific. On average, four to five tropical cyclones (including tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes) travel across the basin that stretches from 140 degrees west longitude to the International Dateline. The forecasters claim that the anticipated continuation of neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions coupled with the continuation of low activity in the Central Pacific Basin that began more than 15 years ago. [NOAA News]
For comparison, Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray at Colorado State University released a forecast of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season in early April that also called for an active season. They envision 18 named tropical cyclones, of which nine could reach hurricane status. As many as four of these hurricanes could become major hurricanes. [The Tropical Meteorology Project]
In addition, forecasters at the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office have also produced a forecast of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season that estimates between 10 and 18 named tropical cyclones could form, with a most likely value of 14. The forecasters feel that 4 and 14 hurricanes could form, with 9 being the most likely value. They base their estimates on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the number of storms and their combined strength.

Future tropical rainfall patterns pondered -- Researchers from of the University of Hawaii and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution analyzed various proxy records of rainfall patterns back to the last Ice Age approximately 26,000 years ago and compared their climate reconstruction with numerical climate simulations from 12 different mathematical climate models. The researchers found that only one of these computer models reproduced rainfall patterns similar to those found from geological evidence. They are concerned about the ability of most of the climate models to simulate tropical climate change. Possible shortcomings in the models could involve the handling convection and the modeling of the region in Indonesia including the submerged Sunda Shelf. [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution]

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE BIOSPHERE

Wildfire and climate change --Researchers from the USDA Forest Service's Southern and Northern Research Stations recently published an article describing the effect of emissions of gases, particles, water and heat from wildfires upon long-term atmospheric conditions. Attention is paid to the changes in the radiation budget of a region due to wildfires. Changes in climate are also expected to cause an increase in wildfires during the next 40 years, especially across the West. [USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station]

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON HUMANS

Heat-related deaths projected to rise in the Big Apple -- A team of scientists at Columbia University's Earth Institute and the Mailman School of Public Health warn that the net annual temperature-related deaths in New York City's Manhattan could increase by a third in the next several decades due to projected rising temperatures. Even though higher winter temperatures would cut cold-related mortality, the number of fatalities would be more than offset by more frequent and more extreme waves. Some of the increases would not only be in summer but also in spring and fall. Daily temperature records at the Central Park weather station show a 3.6 Fahrenheit increase between 1901 and 2000. [The Earth Institute Columbia University]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Historical Events:

27 May 1948...The 1.5 inches of rainfall at Victoria, British Columbia set the record for the wettest May day observed in the provincial capital city. (The Weather Doctor)
28 May 1887...The temperature reached 97 degrees at San Francisco, CA, establishing a record high temperature for the month of May for the city. (Intellicast)
28 May 1942...The latest snowstorm of record for the state of Iowa left ten inches at LeMars, eight inches at Cherokee, and 7.5 inches at Waukon. Afternoon highs were in the lower 30s in parts of northwestern Iowa. (The Weather Channel)
28 May 1984...Sacramento, CA had its highest temperature ever recorded in the month of May, when the temperature reached 110 degrees, breaking the old record of 100 degrees set in 1932. (Intellicast)
28 May 2003...A new Nevada maximum temperature record for May was set when the high temperature at Battle Mountain, NV rose to 102 degrees. (The Weather Doctor)
29 May 2000...A new national maximum temperature record for May is set when the high temperature in Death Valley, CA soared to 122 degrees. (The Weather Doctor)
30 May 1948...The Columbia River reached its highest stage since 1894. A railroad bed acting as a dam gave way during a flood along the Columbia River destroying the town of Vanport, OR. The nearly 18,700 residents escaped with little more than the clothes on their backs. Damage was estimated at 101 million dollars and 75 lost their lives. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast) Twenty carloads of glass were needed in Denver, CO to replace that destroyed by a severe hailstorm. (The Weather Channel)
30 May 1985...The temperature in Oklahoma City, OK reached a sizzling 104 degrees, making it the highest ever for so early in the season. This also marked the very first time the temperature had reached the 100-degree plateau in the month of May at Oklahoma City. (Intellicast)
30 May 1986...Hanford, WA hit a scorching 104 degrees, breaking the all-time record high temperature for May for Eastern Washington. Yakima, WA hit 102 degrees, a record high for the month of May for Yakima. Records also fell at Boise, ID and Reno, NV. (Intellicast)
31 May 1889...The Johnstown, PA disaster occurred, the worst flood tragedy in U.S. history. Heavy rains totaling 4 to 10 inches over the previous 36 hours collapsed the South Fork Dam sending a thirty-foot wall of water rushing down the already flooded Conemaugh Valley. The wall of water, traveling as fast as twenty-two feet per second, swept away all structures, objects, and people, practically wiping out Johnstown. About 2100 persons perished in the flood. (David Ludlum)
31 May-1 June 1941...Thunderstorms deluged Burlington, KS with 12.59 inches of rain to establish a 24-hour rainfall record for the Jayhawk State. (The Weather Channel)
31 May 1973...Canada's sunniest month ends as Eureka, Northwest Territories recorded 621 hours of bright sunshine. (The Weather Doctor)
31 May 1983...Albany, NY experienced its wettest spring (March-May) in 109 years of records as 19.54 inches of precipitation was recorded. (Intellicast)
31 May 1986...The Weather Service Office in Washington, DC reported its driest spring on record with only 3.47 inches of precipitation from 1 March to 31 May. (Intellicast)
31 May 1988...Hot and humid weather prevailed in the eastern U.S. Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Cape Hatteras, NC reported their first ninety-degree day in May in 115 years of records. (The National Weather Summary)
31 May 1991...Norfolk, VA hit 100 degrees, setting a new all-time record high for the month of May. (Intellicast)
31 May 1992...This May was the driest on record for Chicago, IL and Rockford, IL. Only 0.30 inches of rain fell at Chicago and Rockford had a paltry 0.48 inches. The total rainfall at El Paso, TX of this past month was 4.22 inches, making this the wettest May ever for the city. The normal rainfall for May is only 0.24 inches, which means that this month rainfall total was 1758 percent of normal! (Intellicast)
1 June 1907...Sarmiento, Argentina reported a temperature of 29 degrees below zero, the lowest temperature ever recorded in South America. (The Weather Doctor)
1 June 1941...Burlington, KS received 12.59 inches of rain, which set a 24-hour precipitation record for the Jayhawk State. (NCDC)
1-17 June 2001...The deadliest and costliest tropical storm in US history, Tropical Storm Allison, wandered westward across the tropical Atlantic and crossed over into the Pacific before reversing and moving back into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. On 1 June the tropical wave, which eventually evolved into TS Allison, moved into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Pacific coast of Mexico after moving westward across the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean from the west coast of Africa on 21 May. On the 2^nd, a cyclonic (counterclockwise) circulation developed to the south-southeast of Salma Cruz, Mexico, but the low-level circulation became ill defined as the system moved inland on the 3^rd over southeastern Mexico and western Guatemala. This system intensified again and eventually moved northward to the Texas Gulf Coast and then eastward to the Atlantic before turning into an extratropical storm in mid-June. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)
1 June 2005...The UV (ultraviolet) Index in Toronto, Ontario reached 11 or Extreme on the 5-category UV scale, marking the first time the new extreme category has ever been attained in Canada. (The Weather Doctor)
2 June 1917...The temperature at Tribune, KS dipped to 30 degrees to establish a state record for the month of June. (The Weather Channel)

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