NWS-La Crosse Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KARX 040300
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
945 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A drier forecast on the docket for the upcoming week with a
  passing glance of rain showers Friday night and light snow on
  Monday.

- Seasonably cool temperatures for the rest of the week and into
  early next week with highs generally in the 40s to low 50s.
  Coldest day of the week is looking to be Monday with highs
  stuck in the 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Temperature Outlook through Early Next Week

Predominately cyclonic lower to mid tropospheric flow lingers
into early next week, keeping temperatures at or below seasonal
normals (lower 50s for highs). As longwave troughing breaks
down across the western CONUS at the end of the weekend, the
northern stream jet ushers in a cold front Sunday night, setting
the stage for a rather raw Monday with highs in the 30s and
lows Monday night falling into the teens and 20s. The pattern
begins to moderate by Tuesday and by Thursday and beyond we
could be looking at a period of warmer than average
temperatures.

Confidence in the temperature forecast for the next 5-7 days is
fairly high given the tight clustering of the GEFS/EPS ensemble
guidance. Temperatures for the next few days will hinge on
whether we see any clearing in the clouds, which would serve to
increase the diurnal spread. There are still some small
differences in the timing of the front for Sunday, which will
play into how when temperatures decrease--though the magnitude
of the decrease is nearly the same amongst all the guidance.

Low Risk for Rain Friday Night

The region will find itself between the southern and northern
stream systems for Friday, with the main slug of Gulf moisture
pegged to stay south of the area and the approaching Dakota cold
front decaying as it moves through Minnesota. The initial runs
of the convective allowing models have come in drier for Friday
and have likewise trended the forecast in this direction.
Indeed, if the recent runs of the HRRR/RAP come to fruition, we
may see little to no rain for Friday night.

Quick Round of Snow Monday

Modest frontogenesis along the cold frontal surface Sunday
night into Monday morning looks to bring a line of scattered
snow showers to the region, mainly east of the Mississippi
River. Initial deterministic forecast soundings show these
showers mainly tied to the front and clearing quickly--the
broader PoPs reflect the differences in the timing of the front.
The ensemble members diverge in how they handle any systems
moving through midweek next week, resulting broad- brushed PoPs
that will be reigned over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

CIGS: westward low level wind field continues to push the small area
of clouds that have sat over KRST/KLSE the entire day west this
evening - clearing KLSE and likely to clear KRST too. No signs of
stratus reestablishing itself as the drier low level winds persist.
Signficiant shift to cig expectations as a result. RAP/HRRR
soundings now bear this out, quite a difference from just a few
hours ago. Will lean forecast this way as satellite/obs trend it.
Lower cigs do gradually return Fri - first at KRST then KLSE - as a
few disturbances a loft bear down on the region. These lower
cigs could stick around into Sat morning.

WX/vsby: upper level energy and a low pressure system to the south
could work light rain chances across the TAF sites Fri. Short term
models continue to favor keeping the bulk of the southern pcpn south
however, while the westward pcpn dries up/weakens as it moves in.
Will hold with a dry forecast for now.

WINDS: north becoming light east/vrb overnight...turning southeast
for Fri but holding under 10 kts. Sfc pressure gradient starts to
tighten overnight Fri, and look for an increase in speeds and shift
to more northerly.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skow
AVIATION.....Rieck