NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 051153
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
553 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is on its way into the region this morning.
  Probability of an inch of snow remains around 40-60% along the
  Upper Peninsula border southeastwards into northern Door County.

- A second round of light snow is expected late tonight into
  Friday morning. Some freezing drizzle could mix in at times
  overnight. Highest snowfall for the second round will be focused
  to north-central Wisconsin.

- A fast moving clipper system will bring another chance for some
  light snow into the region Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Focus of the forecast will be on the potential for light snow
this morning and again late tonight, along with any accompanying
freezing drizzle.

The first round of light snow will be ongoing this morning,
having arrived in north-central Wisconsin as of 07-08Z. This
timing puts it on track to get into the Fox Valley around 10Z-13Z,
which will impact the morning commute. Visibility could briefly
drop to a mile or two as the snow moves through, so if you are
driving this morning be aware of the potential for changing road
conditions. Some low potential (~20%) remains on the tail end of
this first snow to see some freezing drizzle, but soundings so far
this morning do suggest that the snow associated with this first
wave of warm air advection aloft will move off by the time ice
becomes scarce, which should help mitigate impacts. Snowfall
totals will be under an inch for most, but probabilities do paint
out around 50-60% chance of getting over an inch for areas along
the Upper Peninsula border, following the Menominee River
southeastwards. Probabilities then taper off quickly
southwestwards into central Wisconsin.

The second round then arrives tonight as cold air advection
returns along a weak cold front. Another widespread round of light
snow is to be expected, but this time there will be some better
(20-40%) chance for some mixed precipitation on the tail end of
the event as ice becomes scarce aloft. Fortunately, qpf will be
relatively low with this event as well, so any light snow ahead
of the freezing drizzle may serve to help prevent icing on many
exposed surfaces. Still, this will bear watching to see if drizzle
becomes more widespread, which would increase impacts on travel
overnight. Similar to the first round, snow totals will generally
be under an inch for most, with only north-central Wisconsin near
the Upper Peninsula border getting to around 40-60% chance of
exceeding an inch. Totaling the two rounds together then, a
widespread inch or snowfall is expected for most, with only areas
in north-central and possibly northern Door County expected to get
closer to two inches total.

Finally, another fast moving clipper could bring some light snow
through the region quickly during the day Saturday, but overall
amounts will be quite light as the air mass in the region will
still be dry during this time. Dry conditions are then in the
forecast until the middle to end of next week.

Colder air follows in the wake of the snow Friday which will
serve to lower temperatures Friday night and Saturday, with low
temperatures around 5 to 10 below zero Saturday morning. This
shouldn't make headline cold criteria but will still be one of the
colder nights in the forecast. Temperatures are then expected to
moderate quickly going into next week, with highs rising quickly
into the 30s. A few locations in the long range even have a shot
at seeing 40.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 552 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The TAF period will generally see IFR conditions across the region
from a mix of low ceilings and visibility impairments from two
rounds of snowfall.

A snow band will be on its way through the region at the beginning
of the TAF period, bringing IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings.
 The heaviest band of snow will work its way out of the region
over the next hour or so but a few flurries could linger on behind
this into the late morning period. Lower clouds follow behind the initial
wave of snowfall, which will bring an extended period of IFR
ceilings into the TAF for the afternoon even as visibility
improves.

A second round of snow is expected late tonight, which will bring
another round of light precipitation. There is a small potential
for some freezing precipitation to mix in at times in the
overnight period, but confidence remained to low on the if and
where to include in the current TAF. Still, would expect a mention
in upcoming TAFs for the overnight period if confidence increases.

Winds will be on the increase in the afternoon period, with gusts
up to 15 to 20 knots at times in the afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Uhlmann