NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 092051
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
251 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20 to 50 percent chance of a light glaze of ice over
  northern WI this evening, especially over the far northeast.
  Mixed light freezing rain and sleet will transition to light
  snow overnight. Slick to locally hazardous travel could develop
  on untreated roads, especially over far northeast WI. A Winter
  Weather Advisory remains in effect for Marinette and Door
  counties.

- Mainly dry conditions with seasonably mild temperatures
  expected for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Mid-level clouds covered the region this afternoon. Despite radar
returns extending from central MN through northern WI, a deep
layer of dry air (pronounced dry wedge seen between 850-600 mb on
the 18z GRB RAOB), no precipitation was reaching the surface.
Mild air has arrived as expected, with daytime temperatures mainly
in the lower to middle 30s.

Tonight/Headline Changes: A clipper system will track through
Ontario tonight, and pull a cold front through the forecast area
late tonight. Models have backed off on precipitation development
late this afternoon, and QPF has dropped off across northern WI
tonight. The later arrival time of the precipitation will narrow
the window for freezing rain development this evening, as the
warm layer aloft (initially +3 to + 5 C) will be weakening/
eroding. Probabilistic forecasts for a light glaze of ice
have dropped off considerably, and are down to 20-50% across far
northern and NE WI. Much of the western portion of the Winter
Weather Advisory has been cancelled, as the favored p-type should
be sleet and snow. The best bet for freezing rain and minor ice
accums will be over far NE WI during the mid to late evening, so
kept the headlines going for Marinette and Door counties, despite
lowered confidence. Lingering light snow will taper off late
tonight, with perhaps some light lake-effect snow showers or
flurries occurring in Vilas and northern Door counties on
Tuesday.

High pressure dominates our weather for the rest of the work
week, with only small precipitation chances expected through
the weekend. A stronger low pressure system could impact our SE
counties Sunday into Sunday night, but at this point, only the
Canadian ensembles are depicting this scenario. Thus, below normal
precipitation is anticipated through the period.

Temperatures will trend above normal through the week, with highs
in the upper 20s and 30s through Thursday, and middle 30s to lower
40s from Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening,
with mainly mid-level clouds and S-SW winds gusting to 15 to 20
knots expected. Have delayed any mention of precipitation in the
RHI TAF site until 01z/Tue.

The highest precipitation chances will be focused across far
northern Wisconsin (including the RHI TAF site) this evening into
tonight with patchy light freezing rain/sleet transitioning to
snow. If precipitation arrival is delayed any later into the
evening, the potential for freezing rain will be much lower, due
to a weakening of the warm layer aloft. Not planning to add any
precipitation to any of the other TAF sites.

There is potential for MVFR ceilings developing in the wake of a
cold frontal passage late tonight into Tuesday morning,
especially over NC/C WI.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST
Tuesday for WIZ013-022-073.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch