NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 060749
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
149 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog will impact travel across much of the region
  this morning.

- Widespread rain (80-100%) impacts the region today and tonight,
  with most of the area receiving between 0.50 to 1.25 inches.
  Minor snow and ice accumulations may impact travel in far north
  central WI late tonight into Saturday morning.

- Thunderstorms possible this afternoon and tonight. The best
  chance of storms occurs from 10 pm to 3 am. Heavy rainfall and
  a few strong storms with hail and gusty winds. Localized
  flooding possible.

- Above normal temperatures expected through most of the period.
  The warmest days occur Sunday and Monday, with highs reaching
  into the 60s in some areas.

- Warmer weather may lead to ice breakup on rivers, resulting in
  ice jam flooding. Ice floes could also be a concern, especially
  from Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Widespread low stratus, fog and drizzle covered the region early
this morning. Locally dense fog was reported, especially in east
central WI. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for roughly the
southern two-thirds of the forecast area, and conditions will be
monitored for a possible expansion this morning. Since
temperatures are all above freezing, and expected to remain
above freezing, any mention of freezing drizzle has been removed
from this morning's forecast.

Main Changes for the Friday/Saturday System:

- More definition in pops has been added to better deliniate the
  two separate periods of more significant rainfall, with the main
  lull occurring mid-afternoon through early evening. Rainfall
  amounts for the first round have been lowered a little bit.

- While thunderstorms will be possible from this afternoon through
  tonight, CAMs and SPC HREF 40 dBZ paintballs show the main round
  of thunderstorms moving through the forecast area from 10 pm
  through 3 am. This will be the best period for strong storms
  with small hail, brief gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Minor
  urban flooding could occur in localized areas.

- Have increased snow/ice accumulations across far north central
  WI late tonight into Saturday morning, as a significant band of
  deformation zone precipitation occurs in conjunction with
  surface temperatures dropping below freezing. A mixture of
  freezing rain and sleet will eventually change to snow Saturday
  morning, with up to 1 to 2 inches possible over northwest Vilas
  County.

A generally dry period is expected from Saturday afternoon
through Monday night, with a couple clipper systems passing by
well to our north. Breezy southwest winds on Sunday and Monday
will bring very mild temperatures, with readings in the 60s in
our typical warm spots.

Another low pressure system arrives Tuesday and Tuesday night,
but models have generally trended farther southeast with the
track, keeping the forecast area in a colder air mass. Light mixed
precipitation will be possible during this period.

Ice Jam/Ice Floe Potential...In addition to the previously
mentioned potential for runoff flooding from heavy rainfall
tonight, there is a low threat of ice jam flooding. Continued mild
temperatures will increase the threat of ice break-up into
early next week. The ice jam threat will be reduced a bit due to
low water levels, though this may change after the expected heavy
rainfall occurs tonight. An increased threat of ice floes on
Green Bay could also develop, especially on Sunday and Monday,
when gusty southwest winds will occur.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Most sites have dropped to LIFR this evening due to both low
clouds and developing fog. Those still hanging on just above the
threshold are expected to drop over the next couple hours.

Low clouds, fog, and drizzle will persist overnight, with a 50-80%
probability of 1/2SM vsby or less at most locations. Clouds will
also remain low with bases settling around 200-400ft. A few rounds
of light to moderate rain from late Friday morning through the
afternoon. Expect a lull through the evening, followed by another
round of rain and thunderstorms. This round arrives late in the
TAF period, so have not included any thunder mention yet.

ESE winds around 5 to 10 knots through tonight, will gradually
veering S on Friday with gusts up to 20 knots at times.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for WIZ019>022-
030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......KLJ