NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 212146
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
346 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off light snow will continue through Thursday.
  Accumulations will be less than 1 inch, with temporary
  visibility drops and slippery stretches on roads the main
  impacts.

- And Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for Thursday night and
  Friday morning, as there is a nearly 100% chance of seeing wind
  chills of 30 below or colder.

- The coldest of the air departs Saturday, but temperatures remain
  below normal into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Light snow...There wasn't much of a break in the light snow today
(at least when looking at the area as a whole, as supposed to a
specific point), as bits of shortwave energy circle around an
upper low in Ontario. Overall moisture and lift remain limited,
but based on time sections and upstream obs will continue to see
on/off light snow through this evening. Impacts will be minimal,
with occasional visibility drops to around 1-2 miles and patchy
slick spots on roads. An additional wave comes through midday
Thursday, leading to another uptick in light snow/flurries. Expect
impacts and amounts (a couple tenths) to be similar. More CAMs
have started to depict the Thursday snow, so increased PoPs to a
blanket 20% area-wide. This might need to be raised a bit if these
become more widespread or robust. In addition, west winds will
gust to 20-30 mph tomorrow, bringing about a chance (~20-30%) for
some patchy blowing and drifting snow, but do not expect major
blowing snow issues as there isn't much new snow to work with. But
the shallow snow blowing over cold roads could be another
mechanism to create slippery spots.

Cold...The main headline remains the upcoming surge of cold
weather. This has been a very consistent signal for days, so
confidence remains high. The Extreme Cold Watch was upgraded to an
Extreme Cold Warning for the entire area from 12AM to 1PM Friday.
Wind chills of 30 to 45 below are likely area wide, and central
and north-central WI have a 10-40% chance of dipping down to 50
below. The Watch remains in effect from 1PM Friday to Noon
Saturday, as there is a little less certainty of temps or wind
chills reaching warning criteria (30 below in the east, 35 below
in the west). Regardless, it will remain dangerously cold through
Saturday morning. Despite the cold, it does not look like many
records will be broken. The best place to see any records broken
is for record low max temps on Friday. The records at Antigo and
Wausau are -6, and the current forecast call for a high around
-10.

Beyond Saturday, temps and wind chills look to stay away from
headline criteria, but still remain well below normal for late
January. Wind chills will struggle to get above zero into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1226 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR flying conditions were observed early this
afternoon, with similar conditions expected over the next 9-12
hours, with some improvement after 03-06Z.

Scattered, light snow has continued from this morning, with a
second wave coming in this afternoon through early evening. Vsby
drops to 1 1/2 to 3SM will come and go with the snow, especially
across central and northern WI. Meanwhile, a few different cloud
layers are present, and flight conditions are bouncing around a
bit based on whether the lowest layer around 1-2kft is SCT or BKN.
The area should settle around VFR bases late this evening after
the snow moves through.

SW to W winds are expected through the TAF period, with gusts of
15 to 25 kts at times.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Thursday night to 1 PM CST
Friday for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-
073-074.

Extreme Cold Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-
073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KLJ