NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 092325
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
525 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20 to 50 percent chance of a light glaze of ice over
  northern WI this evening, especially over the far northeast.
  Mixed light freezing rain and sleet will transition to light
  snow overnight. Slick to locally hazardous travel could develop
  on untreated roads, especially over far northeast WI. A Winter
  Weather Advisory remains in effect for Marinette and Door
  counties.

- Mainly dry conditions with seasonably mild temperatures
  expected for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Mid-level clouds covered the region this afternoon. Despite radar
returns extending from central MN through northern WI, a deep
layer of dry air (pronounced dry wedge seen between 850-600 mb on
the 18z GRB RAOB), no precipitation was reaching the surface.
Mild air has arrived as expected, with daytime temperatures mainly
in the lower to middle 30s.

Tonight/Headline Changes: A clipper system will track through
Ontario tonight, and pull a cold front through the forecast area
late tonight. Models have backed off on precipitation development
late this afternoon, and QPF has dropped off across northern WI
tonight. The later arrival time of the precipitation will narrow
the window for freezing rain development this evening, as the
warm layer aloft (initially +3 to + 5 C) will be weakening/
eroding. Probabilistic forecasts for a light glaze of ice
have dropped off considerably, and are down to 20-50% across far
northern and NE WI. Much of the western portion of the Winter
Weather Advisory has been cancelled, as the favored p-type should
be sleet and snow. The best bet for freezing rain and minor ice
accums will be over far NE WI during the mid to late evening, so
kept the headlines going for Marinette and Door counties, despite
lowered confidence. Lingering light snow will taper off late
tonight, with perhaps some light lake-effect snow showers or
flurries occurring in Vilas and northern Door counties on
Tuesday.

High pressure dominates our weather for the rest of the work
week, with only small precipitation chances expected through
the weekend. A stronger low pressure system could impact our SE
counties Sunday into Sunday night, but at this point, only the
Canadian ensembles are depicting this scenario. Thus, below normal
precipitation is anticipated through the period.

Temperatures will trend above normal through the week, with highs
in the upper 20s and 30s through Thursday, and middle 30s to lower
40s from Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Mid-level clouds remain across the region with a dry layer below
750 mb preventing initial precipitation from reaching the surface
late this afternoon. Radar returns are increasing, and surface obs
at Hayward and Rice Lake showing light precip is reaching the
surface. Therefore, light freezing rain will be possible at KRHI
between 00z and 02z before cooling vertical profiles transition
p-type to all snow. Minor snow accumulations are possible at
north-central terminals between 06z and 09z when MVFR ceilings
arrive to central and north-central WI.

Colder air surging behind the front after midnight will lead to
an expansion of MVFR stratus. North-central and central Wisconsin
terminals (KRHI, KAUW, KCWA) will likely remain MVFR through much
of Tuesday. Further east, MVFR ceilings are expected for a time
at KGRB, KATW, and KMTW on Tuesday morning before some lifting
occurs.

Surface winds will shift from southerly to westerly
behind the front, becoming gusty with peaks of 20-25 kts Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ013-022-
073.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......MPC