NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 090353
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1053 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures drop below normal into early next week. Frost is
  possible Sunday and Monday mornings.

- Slight chance (15-25%) for rain showers Saturday morning. The
  next chance (50-70%) opportunity for widespread rain comes
  Tuesday.

- Periods of elevated fire weather conditions will exist during
  the late morning through afternoon hours over the next few days
  due to low RHs, breezy winds, and drying fuels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Temps: With southwesterly winds continuing tonight low temperatures
will trend about 10 degrees warmer than the past few nights, so no
additional Frost Advisories tonight. The warming trend will be short-
lived as a cold front passes through the region Saturday veering the
winds back around to the northwest and returning seasonally cool
temperatures to the region through the weekend and into early next
week. Low temperatures Saturday and Sunday nights are forecast to
drop into the low to mid 30s across central and east-central WI.

Long-range ensemble trends do show a warming trend during the second
half of next week with most of the region warming above normal.
However, 500mb cluster analysis shows considerable discrepancies with
the locations of the long-wave trough/ridge pattern over the CONUS
beyond next Wednesday.

Precipitation: A weak frontal boundary marked by a wind shift is
currently over eastern MN along with a subtle short-wave visible on
WV imagery northwest of the Twin Cities. As these features move east
a few CAMs do show scattered showers developing this afternoon,
however, with dew point depressions around 25-30 degrees and analysis
soundings showing a very dry surface to 700mb layer don't expect
much rain to reach the round.

Another chance for scattered showers comes early Saturday as another
cold front moves across the region. CAMs have back off with
widespread precip chances with this system, likely due to the very
dry low-levels. Best chance for a few hundredths of an inch of
rain is across central WI where additional upper-level support in
the form of of a left front jet quad is forecast to develop.

A more organized clipper system is on track to move through the
Upper Midwest early next week, impacting Wisconsin on Tuesday. This
is the greatest opportunity to see rain over the next week, with
probabilities of getting at least 0.10" ranging from 50-70%, highest
in central Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions (mainly mid to high clouds) through Saturday.
Borderline MVFR cigs could occur over central WI Saturday
morning. Small chance (20-30%) for a few light showers over
central WI (AUW/CWA) in the morning as a cold front moves
through. A few light showers or sprinkles could pop-up over
eastern WI late in the afternoon, but have maintained a dry
forecast for now. Skies will clear out on Saturday night.

West winds shift northwest late tonight. There will be a round of
LLWS from central to eastern WI late tonight into Saturday
morning. Otherwise, NW winds on Saturday will gust over 20 kts
late morning through the afternoon in wake of the cold front.
Also, hint of a re-inforcing cold front and/or a lake breeze late
day (after 22-23z) that may impact GRB to MTW, shifting winds to
the N/NE. Winds will become light and variable Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

RAP analysis soundings this afternoon show deep mixing to 8-10kft,
bringing down sfc gusts to around 20-25 mph and leading to RHs in
the 25-32% range away from Lake Michigan. Should any fires ignite
late this afternoon they may be able to spread quickly. Additional
periods of slightly elevated fire weather conditions are possible
through this weekend due to periods of deep mixing, low RHs,
moderate winds, and increasing dry fuels.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......JLA
FIRE WEATHER...GK