NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 070349
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
949 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another fast moving round of snowfall will be possible Saturday
  night into early Sunday morning. Probability of exceeding an
  inch is 20-40% across far northeast Wisconsin and Door County.

- Cooler temperatures expected tonight and Saturday, followed by
  an above normal temperature trend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Mostly clear skies and quiet weather is expected tonight into
Saturday as high pressure tracks through the western Great Lakes
region. Temperatures will be below normal as lows range from
around 0 across the Fox Valley to the single digits below 0 across
central and north-central Wisconsin.

A quick moving shortwave will bring a round of snow to the region
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Most locations should only see
a dusting of snow from this system; however, far northeast
Wisconsin and Door County could see up to an inch with a 20-40%
chance of exceeding an inch according to the HREF ensembles. NBM
amounts and probabilities from version 5.0 better reflect the
expected forecast with higher amounts compared to the operational
4.3 as this usually struggles with the high POP low QPF events in
the winter.

Warmer weather is then expected next week, which will bring some
above normal temperatures into the region. High temperatures will
get into the 30s for most of the region and a few of the warmest
spots may even get to around 40. Another shot for some light
precipitation will be possible around the middle of next week but
the details such as p-type remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 949 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

High pressure building across the western Great Lakes will maintain
mostly clear skies and quiet weather tonight through Saturday.
MVFR ceilings continue to linger near the U.P. border, but these
are expected to dissipate over the next few hours as drier air
arrives.

VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals through Saturday
afternoon. Mid and high clouds will increase throughout the
day with bases remaining above 9000 ft through 00Z Sunday.
Light north to northwest winds at 3 to 6 kts will become light
and variable as the ridge axis crosses the area.

The chance for light snow increases after 00Z Sunday as a
fast-moving disturbance approaches. While most terminals
will remain VFR through 06Z Sunday, cloud bases will steadily
lower. Central and north-central sites including KAUW, KCWA,
and KRHI may see conditions approach MVFR thresholds toward
the end of the period.

Confidence is high for VFR through Saturday afternoon, with
lower confidence regarding the exact timing and coverage of
snow Saturday night.

Outlook...Light snow is expected late on Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Most locations will see a dusting, but up to an
inch is possible across far northeast Wisconsin and the Door
Peninsula.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......MPC