NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 251945
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
145 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitter cold temperatures will continue through Monday. A Cold
  Weather Advisory is in effect late tonight into Monday morning.

- Temperatures will remain unseasonably cold through the work
  week with gradual moderation favored towards next weekend.

- The next week will be predominantly dry with the probability of
  impactful snow low. The most likely period for fluffy
  accumulations up to 1/2 inch will be Monday evening/night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Cold Temps Persist:

Temperatures have warmed across the region this afternoon, with wind
wind chills of 5 to 15 below zero where there was wind. Despite
clouds across much of the region mostly clear skies are expected
to develop overnight as a low pressure system across the Ohio
Valley continues to move northeast. Lows tonight are expected to
range from around 20 below across the north, to the single digits
below zero across the Fox Valley and lakeshore. A tightening
pressure gradient due to the aforementioned low passing through
the Ohio Valley and a high building in across the northern Plains
will cause winds to be a bit more gusty tonight, with wind speeds
of 5 to 10 mph for much of the night. This will once again send
wind chills plummeting to 20 to 35 below zero. Therefore, will
keep the Cold Weather Advisory late tonight into Monday morning.

The cold weather pattern will continue through the work week as
strongly meridional northwest flow persists across the Upper Midwest
with reinforcing surges of cold air filtering south through the
week. Ensembles support some gradual moderation in temps by next
weekend or beyond as mid-level heights begin to rise. It isn't
until next weekend where the NBM probabilities for temperatures
greater than 20 degrees is substantial (greater than 50%).

Snow Chances:

With the cold, dry airmass remaining entrenched, impactful snow
potential will be low over the next week. The window with the
highest snow chances at this time is Monday night as a strong
shortwave trough drives southward across the Great Lakes. Although
moisture will be limited, GEFS/EPS/Canadian ensembles support medium
to high (50-90%) light snow chances Monday evening given the
deep forcing, so have trended chances upward. Although QPF amounts
are fairly light at a few hundredths of an inch, snow ratios in
this cold pattern are in the upper teens. Therefore, several
tenths of an inch of snow could be squeezed out of this system,
especially across the north were around 0.5 an inch of snow could
fall.

Spotty light snow or flurries cannot be ruled out with
subsequent shortwave trough passages through the week within the
northwest flow regime. However, any snow amounts will be very
minor given the moisture-starved nature of these systems.
Additional lake effect snow showers may impact portions of
north-central Wisconsin through the middle of the week with
northwesterly low-level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

MVFR/VFR stratus persisting from the Fox Valley to Lake Michigan
shoreline will trend VFR through the afternoon. VFR conditions are
then expected for the rest of the TAF period. Winds will increase
to 5-10 kts with periodic gusts nearing 20 kts this evening and
tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski