NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 261956
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
256 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and Monday
  evening, especially south of a line from Rhinelander to Sturgeon
  Bay. The primary threat would be large hail and damaging winds.

- Moderate to heavy rain with embedded storms is expected Monday
  and Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall between 0.75 to 1.5"
  expected at most locations.

- Rivers are expected to rise this week after a round of moderate
  to heavy rain on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Stubborn low clouds continued across portions of northeast WI
early this afternoon, otherwise skies were partly cloudy.
Temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

For tonight, tranquil conditions should prevail. There is a small
chance of rain towards daybreak across portions of central and
east-central WI. There is still lingering questions if there
would be another night of low clouds and patchy fog. Guidance is
suggesting low clouds would arrive tomorrow morning as dew points
increase. However, will trend for low lower clouds late tonight
and tomorrow with the next round of showers and storms on Monday.

Severe Weather Risk; Monday and Monday night

Showers and a few storms will move across the area during the
morning into the early afternoon, any storms are not expected to
be severe. The main concern will be the late Monday afternoon
into Monday evening as a cold front moves across the area. Strong
shear 0-6 km around 60 knots, MUCAPEs of 1,000 to 1,500 J/KG and
strong winds off the deck from 40-50 knots support the potential
for strong or severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center Day 2
Outlook has a Marginal Risk of severe storms south of a
Rhinelander to Sturgeon Bay line, with even a Slight Right into
portions of Winnebago and Waushara counties. The greatest risk of
severe weather will be from 6 pm to 10 pm. Showers will linger
into the overnight hours after the

Rest of the week:

Except for a small chance of rain on Thursday, dry conditions
should prevail into next weekend, allowing for river levels to
recede after the rain on Monday. Several afternoons will also
feature low humidity readings, which could lead to an increase
risk of fires heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGS from KMTW/KATW/KGRB northward to KEZS/KCLI and
KOCQ will burn off by 20z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
prevail into late tonight. Will need to watch for MVFR/IFR CIGS
late tonight, but more likely Monday morning as southerly flow
increases. Low level wind shear develops late tonight and continue
into Monday evening until a cold front passes. Winds off the
deck in the 60-70 knot range at 2-3 thousand feet tomorrow
afternoon into the evening. Showers and scattered storms expected
Monday with strong or severe storms possible south of a
Rhinelander to Sturgeon Bay line. Strong winds and hail
are the main risks. Conditions will gradually improve Monday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Minor flooding continues on several rivers, namely the Wolf,
Menominee, and the Fox River at Oshkosh. Dry conditions should
prevail through this evening, with increasing chances of rain late
tonight into Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.50
inches is expected with locally higher amounts. There is a 40-80%
chance of more than 1" of rain across much of the region, with a
15 to 35% chance of more than 2" across central Wisconsin.

Per RFC forecasts and HEFS guidance, several points along the
Menominee River could return to moderate flood stage. Continuing
snow melt from the Upper Peninsula would lend some confidence for
at least a return to moderate flood stage.

The Wolf River is expected to stay below moderate flood stage
during this event, with some points rising back to minor flood
stage. Levels on the Lake Winnebago system continue to rise due
to inflow from the Wolf and Fox Rivers, with minor flooding
already occurring from Lake Poygan to Winnebago and minor
flooding forecast to occur through the weekend. Those living near
rivers or streams should continue to monitor the latest Flood
Warnings and statements from the National Weather Service in
Green Bay.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Eckberg
HYDROLOGY......Eckberg