NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 221034
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
534 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is forecast through Thursday, which will continue
  the gradual drop on area rivers.

- Temperatures will be well above normal through Friday, with
  highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees on Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night into
  Friday. Heavy rainfall may accompany any thunderstorms, with a
  20-40% chance of exceeding an inch of rain.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Monday
  and Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is also expected with this system,
  with a 30-50% chance of exceeding an inch of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

High pressure will bring continued dry weather and warm conditions
to the region through Thursday. Mostly sunny skies are expected
today, with increasing clouds on Thursday ahead of an approaching
low pressure system. Warm air advection ahead of the low will push
high temperatures to around 80 degrees west of the Fox Valley
Thursday afternoon, with cooler temperatures near the lake.
Showers and thunderstorms with the approaching low continue to
trend slower, with dry weather expected through Thursday. The warm
and dry conditions today will push relative humidities down to 20
to 30 percent, which will result in a slight uptick in wildfire
potential; however, this will be mitigated by light wind speeds.

The low will eventually bring a swath of showers and thunderstorm
Thursday night and Friday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although MUCAPEs have increased a bit this run, with
values around 1000 J/kg, CAPE profiles are very long, skinny and
stretched out. Therefore, severe weather is not anticipated across
our area with this upcoming system. What is expected is possible
heavy rain at times as probabilities for rain have ticked upwards
this run. The probability of an inch or more of rain is up to 20
to 40%, with around a 10% chance of 2 inches or more of rain
across central Wisconsin. Any additional rainfall is obviously
problematic for flooding, especially if areas receive 2 inches.

After a dry weekend, another low pressure system will bring
another swath of showers and thunderstorms into the region Monday
and Tuesday. Recent model runs have increased the potential for
heavy rain with this system as the probability for an inch or more
of rain is 30-50% south of Rhinelander with a 10-20% of 2 inches
or more.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 534 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR flying conditions will persist through this evening as high
pressure tracks through the region.

Clear skies are anticipated through most of the TAF period;
however, low clouds currently moving into northern Missouri are
expected to push into the southwest part of the forecast area late
this evening, perhaps reaching KCWA/KAUW by 05Z/Thu, KRHI by
09Z/Thu, and the eastern TAF sites by the end of the TAF period.
Light northeast winds are expected to increase from the east-
southeast late this morning.

LLWS is expected to develop across north-central Wisconsin this
evening and central Wisconsin late tonight, which will affect the
TAF sites.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Minor to moderate flooding continues on many rivers, with major
flooding expected to persist on parts of the Wolf River through
this morning. Most of the river levels have crested, and with a
prolonged stretch of dry weather anticipated through Thursday,
water levels should gradually subside through the week.

Those living near rivers should continue to monitor the latest
Flood Warnings and statements from the National Weather Service
in Green Bay.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
HYDROLOGY......Kurimski