NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 102330
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
530 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A pattern change bringing above normal temperatures is expected
 beginning Thursday and continuing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Northwest winds in the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning
may produce light lake effect snow across far north-central WI
through this evening, but expect any accumulation to be minimal.
High pressure building over the northern Plains will then slide east
dominating the region through the end of the work week. LREF mean
500mb flow does show a subtle short-wave over the Upper Mississippi
Valley Thursday which does bring a ~10% for light snow to central WI
Thursday morning, however, the better chances for accumulating snow
are further west along the WI/MN and WI/IA borders. Another low-end
10-15% chance for light precipitation comes Sunday as a low
develops over the southern CONUS.

Temperatures will begin to trend warmer than normal Thursday and by
this weekend there is a 50-80% chance for highs above 40 degrees.
There is a 30-50% chance that areas south of HWY 29 reach 50 degrees
by early next week. The warming trend will lead to a quickly melting
snowpack and deteriorating ice conditions which does raise the concern
for ice jams next week. Additionally the melting snowpack will lead to
an increase in low-level moisture increasing the possibility of
periods of fog this weekend and next week.

Long-range ensembles and ML models are showing early signals for a
more widespread precipitation event during the early part of next
week. Forecast soundings have a large spread in temperatures at this
time making it very uncertain if this would be a snow, rain, or
wintry mix even.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 524 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Strong subsidence and downsloping NW winds were eroding the low
cloud deck across the central part of the forecast area early this
evening. While clouds may be more persistent due to lake-enhancement
across the far north, it appears that the rest of the region will
scatter out this evening. Have gone more optimistic with the
clearing trend and subsequent improvement to VFR over most areas.
Otherwise, northwest winds will gust to 20 to 25 kts tonight into
Wednesday, with a decreasing trend expected toward sunset.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch