NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 180518
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and dry conditions are expected Sunday, with gusts of 25
  to 30 mph. A few gusts near 35 mph are possible. Conditions
  will be hazardous to small craft, with a few gale force gusts at
  times.

- A prolonged stretch of mostly dry and warm conditions is expected
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Dry and Breezy Sunday...As a surface high pressure system shifts to
the southeast, return southwesterly flow will reside over the area.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system over the Central Plains will cause
the pressure gradient to tighten over the forecast area, causing
southwest winds to increase. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected,
with the potential (NBM probs up to 30%) for a few gusts near 35
mph. The highest wind gusts will be from the mid-morning through the
mid-afternoon, gradually subsiding into the evening. The southwest
flow will also allow temperatures to warm into the low 60s.

Rest of the Week...High pressure and mid-level ridging will
remain in place for the first half of the work week, keeping
conditions dry. Guidance continues to decrease with the next
chance for precip midweek, given the lack in forcing and moisture
from the nearby cold front. LREF probs and NBM probs are both
showing less than 10% for measurable precip (0.01 inches). Mid-
level ridging and high pressure then return for the remainder of
the week, keeping conditions dry. This pattern will also cause
temperatures to remain above normal and gradually warm each day by
a couple degrees, potentially reaching the low 70s for some spots
by Wednesday and hovering around there through the remainder of
the week.

Due to recent rainfall, fine fuels are projected to be only
marginally receptive to risk of wildfires even with the warmer
temperatures. Will have to keep eye on this though given the
increasing amount of dead fine fuels with recent sub freezing
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Low level wind shear from 240 degrees at 45 to 50 knots  will
continue overnight. On Sunday, windy conditions will prevail with
southerly winds from 200-220 degrees at 15-25 knots with gusts of
25 to 35 knots. Winds will quickly subside between 22z Sun and
01z Monday. VFR conditions will prevail into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Sunday evening,
except for the Lake Michigan nearshore north of Sturgeon Bay,
where a Gale Warning is in effect. Southwest winds gusting to
30-35 kts, strongest toward open waters of northern Lake Michigan
will produce waves up to 6 to 9 feet on Lake Michigan, and from 3
to 6 feet on the bay. The peak of the gales will occur from Sunday
morning through the mid-afternoon. A few gale force gusts are also
possible on the central Bay near Deaths Door. Conditions will
drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria late Sunday night into
Monday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Eckberg
MARINE.........Kruk