NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 270509
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1109 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Vilas County through
  6 am Thursday morning. Additional snow amounts of 3 to 5 inches
  are expected, with locally higher amounts in the northwest
  corner of Vilas County. Gusty winds over 30 mph will continue to
  result in blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Door County through 6 am
  Thursday. Strong northwest winds will gust to 50 mph at times.
  The primary impacts will be additional power outages and
  difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles.

- Confidence is increasing for accumulating snow on Saturday and
  Saturday night. There is an increasing potential (70-90% chance)
  for greater than 6 inches of snow over central, east-central,
  and northeast Wisconsin, which may impact post-holiday travel.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The first winter storm of the season will continue to impact the
region through early this evening with most headlines continuing
until 6 pm. No changes to the headlines were made this forecast
cycle.

Gusty winds will slowly wind down after sunset, but still remain
gusty near the lakeshore; where the Wind Advisory continues
through the overnight hours. Otherwise, winds of 30 to 40 mph are
still expected outside of the advisory through the overnight
hours.

For Thanksgiving Day, the weather will remain cold and blustery
but generally quieter than today. Lake effect snow showers will
persist across the snowbelt of Vilas County, potentially adding
another 1 to 2 inches of accumulation, while scattered flurries
may develop elsewhere due to steep low-level lapse rates in
cyclonic flow. High temperatures will range from the middle 20s to
lower 30s. Drier air arriving Thursday night will bring a gradual
clearing trend and diminishing lake effect activity, though
clouds will quickly return Friday ahead of the Saturday system.

Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, attention turns to a system
forecast to impact the region Saturday and Saturday night. An
amplifying long- wave trough over the center of the continent will
send a strengthening shortwave across the region, supporting the
development of a surface low. Guidance continued to trend
stronger with this system over the past 24 hours, shifting the
track to a path favorable for heavy snow across much of northeast
Wisconsin. Probabilities for snowfall exceeding 6 inches have
notably increased, now reaching 70-90% for central, east-central,
and northeast Wisconsin with lower (35-60%) but still substantial
chances across north-central Wisconsin. This presents a
significant concern for post-Thanksgiving travel. While it is
still too early to hoist headlines for this upcoming event, if
trends continue they would be issued in subsequent forecasts if
confidence remains this high. Winds with this weekend system look
to be substantially lower than the event ongoing today. Anyone
with travel plans on Saturday or Saturday night should monitor the
forecast closely as confidence in accumulating snow continues to
grow.

Once this system tracks through the area, very cold air will
invade the western Great Lakes region. Probabilities for dropping
below zero are all the way up to 30-50% Sunday night into Monday
morning for much of central and north-central Wisconsin and remain
a respectable 10-30% Monday night into Tuesday morning. Monday
during the day will also be cold as there is less than a 10%
chance of exceeding 20 degrees outside of far northeast
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1107 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Scattered lake effect snow showers will continue over north-central
WI through the night, drifting over RHI with brief IFR-MVFR vsby
at times. A few more snow showers will occur at times on
Thanksgiving Day. Isolated light snow showers or flurries could
impact the other terminals as well, mainly in the afternoon hours.
Expect MVFR to low-end VFR cigs, to scatter out on Thanksgiving
evening.

Northwest winds gusting to 25-30 kts will slightly diminish to
around 25 kts on Thanksgiving Day. LLWS will continue through
late tonight, before ending on Thanksgiving morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for WIZ005.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for WIZ022.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......JLA