NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion


						FXUS63 KGRB 262349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
649 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 423 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

The upper low will move slowly from the Quad Cities to
northwest Indiana and keep clouds across the region through Wednesday.
Low level warm advection will produce showers and isolated thunderstorms
tonight, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. Lows
will be around ten degrees above average.

Scattered showers may continue across the southern half of the
area through midday. Temperatures will be close to normal with
cloudy skies and a wind off Lake Michigan.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 423 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

A more quiet pattern will set up for this forecast period bringing
mainly dry conditions and above normal temperatures through early
next work week.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Lingering light showers are
possible in the southern Fox Valley Wednesday night as an upper-
level low continues moving eastward over northern IN/OH by Thursday
afternoon. Clouds will stick around for much of Thursday, but
temperatures will gradually warm to just above normal as upper-level
ridging begins to build over the region. High temperatures will
range from the middle 60s to low 70s.

Rest of the extended...The upper-level ridge will dominant over the
Great Lakes region through early next week. This will leave the
state under a mean southwest flow, ushering in warmer air and above
normal temperatures. Most guidance continues to indicate dry
conditions will prevail through the weekend and into early next
week. But, there are indications of a boundary wobbling around the
northwestern WI/Lake Superior area Saturday into Sunday. Depending
on how this feature evolves, the northern portions of the forecast
area may see precip. Due to the uncertainty in strength and
placement of the boundary, continued to keep a dry forecast for the
weekend and into early next week. High temperatures will mainly be
in the 70s, with some low 80s possible on Saturday, Sunday, and
Monday. While these temperatures are about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, record high temperatures will remain intact.

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast over most areas after 03z.
There will also be some light rain showers or drizzle largely east
of an IMT to STE line. IFR conditions will hold overnight, and a
few locations may toe the line with LIFR.

The IFR ceilings should lift to the MVFR range by midday Wednesday.
Some showers are possible roughly south of a AUW to SUE line.


Beach Hazards Statement from 10 PM CDT this evening through
Wednesday evening for WIZ050.


LONG TERM......Kruk