NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 080351
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
951 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Mid-level frontogenesis is leading to a band of radar returns over
central Wisconsin this evening. So far, no sign of snow reaching
the ground despite cloud bases lowering to around 6000 ft over
central WI. 00Z KMPX sounding indicate a large dry wedge present
between 850-700mb that is likely inhibiting snow from reaching the
surface. The latest CAMS indicate that the highest chances of snow
will occur between 04-08z southwest of a line from Wausau to
Oshkosh. This matches the previous forecast well. In general,
guidance shows little to no accumulations across most of the area
tonight.

Will continue to monitor trends this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous small chances for wintry precipitation expected through
  Monday night; most notably potential for up to a half inch of
  snow over central WI tonight, and a light wintry mix over
  northern WI Monday afternoon and night.

- Moderating trend expected over the rest of the weekend, with
  above normal temperatures expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Mid-level clouds were thickening over the forecast area this
afternoon, in response to upper divergence in the RRQ of an upper
jet, and widespread frontogenetic forcing. Despite increasing
radar returns over NC/C WI, no precipitation was occurring due to
a deep layer of low to mid-level dry air, as evidenced by cloud
bases of 9-12k feet and surface dew points still below zero.

Several small chances for wintry precipitation occur through
Monday night or Tuesday. For tonight, models have started to
converge on the best FGEN band of snow occurring southwest of a
line from Wausau to Oshkosh, but given the lingering dry air,
have kept pops in the 20-40% range and snowfall amounts under
a half inch. Late tonight into Sunday, attention turns to low-end
potential for LES near Lake Michigan, which will be limited due to
weakening instability. Small snow chances continue over northern
WI Sunday night due to WAA and upsloping SE winds.

A more dynamic clipper system arrives Monday afternoon and night,
accompanied by a cold frontal passage, short-wave trough and LFQ
of an upper jet. Models disagree on how much precipitation will
develop with this system, but agree that the best chances will
occur from far northern WI into Upper Michigan. Of particular
interest with this system is a substantial warm layer aloft that
will be in place at onset of precipitation. This should lead to
potential for a mix of rain/freezing rain/sleet, which should
change to snow as CAA and dynamic cooling quickly erode the warm
layer. This could end up being a sneaky hazardous travel event,
but for now, confidence only allows for 30-40% chances of a wintry
mix over the far north.

High pressure dominates our weather for the remainder of the week,
which will lead to mainly dry conditions.

Temperatures moderate into the middle 20s to lower 30s on Sunday,
with above normal temperatures in the upper 20s and 30s expected
for the remainder of the week. We could even see a few spots climb
into the lower 40s in our typical warm spots Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 949 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Overcast clouds with bases between 5000-10000 ft blanket the
region this evening. Cloud bases are lowering over central WI which
is an area to watch for snow to reach the surface later this
evening.

Confidence remains low that light snow will impact the TAF sites
tonight. Central WI stands to see the highest chance of snow
(30-50%), so will monitor for vsby reductions if light snow
develops.

Winds in the lowest 1 km will veer southeast between 08z-11z. This
onshore flow is expected to pull MVFR ceilings into east-central
Wisconsin, impacting KGRB, KATW, and KMTW. Light snow or flurries
are most likely at KMTW, where a prevailing mention was maintained.

For central and north-central Wisconsin (KAUW, KCWA, KRHI), dry
air will likely delay ceiling drops until midday Sunday. Then MVFR
ceilings are expected to linger through the end of the period.
Confidence is medium on the exact timing of MVFR stratus arrival
late tonight over east-central WI and midday over central WI.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings look possible to impact terminals over
central, north-central, and far northeast WI late Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........MPC
DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......MPC