NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 071849
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1249 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance and
for 18z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Runoff from recent rainfall and warmer temperatures may result
  in ice break-up on rivers and localized ice jam and river
  flooding into early this week, Ice floes will be a concern on
  Green Bay Sunday into Monday.

- Very warm and breezy Sunday and Monday. Highs reaching the 60s
  in some areas.

- Turning blustery and cooler by Wednesday, with rain changing to
  snow. Potential for accumulating snow across northern WI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Clipper system tracks north of WI late tonight into Sunday. A few
snow showers could clip Vilas County. If snow occurs, minimal
impacts are expected. Well mixed profile still showing up on
Sunday to the south of the clipper. Wind gusts may reach over 30
mph, especially far northeast to east-central WI closer to 45-50
kt 900-850mb speed max. High temps rise into the 50s and even
low to mid 60s. Nudged highs upward compared to majority of
guidance. Lowered dewpoints/RH as well. Day would be more
concerning for fire weather where snow is gone, but wet fuels
should mitigate those concerns.

A generally dry period will continue through Monday night.
Compressional heating with west-northwest winds as a dry cold
front moves through on Monday will result another day of very
mild temperatures, with readings in the 60s in our typical warm
spots. Seems a few record highs and warm record mins could fall
this day.

Next chance of widespread precipitation occurs late Tuesday into
Wednesday as low pressure system tracks across the western Great
Lakes. Phasing issues are present and will dictate how widespread,
heavy QPF ends up. At this point, appears thunder and heaviest
rainfall stays south, but there will be wintry aspect to the
system as rain changes to mixed precipitation and snow by Tuesday
night. Higher end percentiles from NBM consistently pointing to
potential for plowable snow over northern WI Tuesday night.
Operational models support that idea. Main question is wintry mix
transition area and ultimately how far south accumulating snow
occurs late Tuesday into Wednesday. Its still early and details
will change, but the morning commute on Wednesday looks like it
could be impacted by this bout of wintry weather. On the backside
of this system Wednesday, northerly gales could occur on Lake
Michigan.

Another low pressure system arrives Thursday night into Friday,
bringing the next chance of widespread precipitation. Thermal
profiles and sfc temps support wintry mix and/or snow with that
system as well.

Flooding and Ice Floe Potential...Runoff from recent rain and
continued mild temperatures will increase the threat of ice
break-up on rivers/ice jam flooding along with minor river
flooding into early this week. Flows on rivers have increased,
especially over central WI where some rainfall amounts over 1.5
inches were observed. Expect rises to bankfull or even minor flood
stage. An increased threat of ice floes on Green Bay may develop
Sunday and Monday due to gusty southwest winds and more areas of
open water in the bay.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1248 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Cold front has reached the Lake Michigan shoreline. NW flow behind
the front will be gusty this afternoon (to around 20 kts). Plenty
of low-level stratus (IFR-lower MVFR) into western WI which will
not scatter out until this evening at the earliest. Only precipitation
of note will be light rain/snow (vsby as low as 2-3SM) over
north- central WI that gradually diminishes by late afternoon.

Clipper passes by to the north late tonight into Sunday. Main
impact will be increasing winds, first aloft resulting in low-
level wind shear. Eventually, gusts of 25+ kts will make it to
the sfc late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Conditions on
Sunday will be VFR.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA