NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 090347
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1047 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy this afternoon and Monday, with highs reaching
  the 60s in some areas. Record highs in jeopardy on Monday.

- Windy with a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow developing
  Tuesday into Tuesday night, changing to all snow on Wednesday.
  Snow and ice accumulations possible. Travel concerns Tuesday
  night into Wednesday.

- Windy with rain and snow Thursday night into Friday. Snow
  accumulations possible.

- Runoff from recent rainfall and warmer temperatures may result
  in ice break-up on rivers and localized ice jam and river
  flooding into early this week. Ice floes will be a concern on
  Green Bay this afternoon into Monday and again late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

This Afternoon into Monday...The light shower and sprinkle
activity across central WI associated with weak FGEN, WAA and a
little pocket of better moisture, will shift south/east out of the
area early this afternoon and/or get eaten up by the dry air. A
weak clipper system and frontal boundary will bring a very small
chance (10%) of a sprinkle over northern WI late this afternoon
into this evening, but dry air closer to the surface will make it
difficult to get any rain to the surface. It will be a warmer
night with lows mainly in the upper 30s and 40s as southwest winds
remain a little gusty (up to ~25 mph). The frontal boundary will
sag across the area on Monday, which again could touch of a
sprinkle, but kept the forecast dry as the dry air under 10,000 ft
should help keep things dry. Compressional heating along this
boundary should boost temps into the 60s over the southeast half
of the forecast area. We will approach and likely break some high
temp records (see climate section below for current records).

Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday...Elongated low pressure system
over northern KS Tuesday morning is forecast to track along a
baroclinic zone into southern Lake Michigan by Tuesday evening,
then to far southeast Ontario by Wednesday evening. This will keep
our area on the cold side of the system, with a wintry mix of
mainly rain, snow, freezing rain spreading into the area Tuesday
PM/evening, then changing to all snow on Wednesday as colder air
gets drawn into the system. Probabilities of 2+ inches of snow
still running between 30-50%, highest in Vilas Co. Probabilities
of at least 0.01" of icing are 20-50%, highest in central and
eastern WI, but under 5% for greater than 0.1". So the most likely
scenario is mainly snow over far northern WI, with a wintry mix
changing to snow over the rest of the area, with some minor icing
looking more likely. The snow and wintry mix will likely bring
some winter impacts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
impacting the morning commute. A Winter Weather Advisory may be
needed. The system will also bring strong NE winds into the Fox
Valley and lakeshore Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by gusty
NNW winds Wednesday into Wednesday night. May need a gale for a
period Tuesday evening. Instability along/south of the boundary
will push into southern WI, with a small chance (~10%) of some
thunder making it into east-central WI.

Late Week & Weekend Systems...A potent low pressure system is
forecast to move across the Great Lakes in the late Thursday and
early Friday timeframe. Ensemble guidance in general agreement of
the system bringing some kind of wintry mix (NBM PoPs of 60-80%);
however, important differences in track/timing/strength will need
to be ironed out. LREF showing 30-70% probabilities of seeing an
inch or more of snow. Initial look at forecast soundings show more
of a rain/snow mix, rather than freezing rain. Will be monitoring
trends with this system as it could bring around round of impactful
winter conditions. Yet another significant low pressure system
could impact the area next weekend, with more wintry weather. For
those looking to put winter behind us, you will have to wait a
while!

Ice Jam/Ice Floe Potential...Runoff from recent rain along with
continued mild temperatures will increase the threat of ice
break-up into early this week. This could result in susceptible
rivers rising to bankfull or possibly minor flood stage over the
next few days. An increased threat of ice floes on Green Bay will
continue this afternoon then again later in the week during
periods of higher winds.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, but expect
mid and high clouds streaming across. A few sprinkles or
raindrops from the mid clouds could reach the ground early tonight,
but the likelihood or impact at any TAF site is too low to
include this in the TAFs.

Southwest surface winds remain gusty overnight, while strong LLWS
of 50-60 kts at 2kft is also present through mid-morning on
Monday. Surface and LL winds gradually decrease throughout the
rest of Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Record highs are in jeopardy of being broken on Monday, March 9.
Here are the current record high temps:

Antigo: 52 in 1930,1966,2025
Appleton: 61 in 2021,2025
Green Bay: 60 in 2025
Manitowoc: 60 in 2025
Marshfield: 62 in 2021
Merrill: 60 in 1977
Oshkosh: 68 in 1956
Rhinelander: 57 in 1977
Stevens Point: 63 in 1987
Sturgeon Bay: 55 in 2025
Wausau: 60 in 2021
Wisconsin Rapids: 68 in 1987.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......KLJ
CLIMATE........Bersch