NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 050533
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1133 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Forecast discussion for routine evening forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light scattered showers return early Thursday morning. There is
  a 40-50% chance of adding an additional quarter of an inch of
  rain.

- Gusty northwest winds expected Thursday and continue Thursday
  night into Friday. There is a 20-30% chance of wind gusts to 40
  mph across northern Door County Thursday afternoon and evening.

- A light dusting of snow is possible Thursday night in north-
  central Wisconsin, along the Upper Peninsula border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Active Weather and Winds Thursday...
Lingering moisture and upper support continue to produce light
drizzle and rain across portions of central and north-central
Wisconsin, but areas further east will likely remain dry for much
of the early overnight hours. Additional scattered shower coverage
will then return to the region in the overnight hours as the deep
upper trough and attendant cold front cross the region again
Thursday morning. Moisture will be relatively limited with these
showers however, so additional rainfall totals will be limited to
around 40-50% chance of exceeding a quarter of an inch. After the
initial push of showers along the cold front, dry conditions are
likely to return everywhere but far northern Wisconsin along the
Upper Peninsula and possibly along the lakeshore. As temperatures
drop behind the front overnight, some flurries could mix in at
times and produce a dusting of snow for the northern most portions
of north-central Wisconsin.

The cold air advection will also bring some gusty winds to the
region today, with widespread gusts to around 20 to 30 mph. Some
gusts may reach up to 35 mph, but probability of seeing stronger
gusts has come down, with around only a 20% chance of getting to
around 40 mph. These stronger winds will likely stick around
through Thursday night into Friday, especially for areas near the
Bay of Green Bay and Lake Michigan.

After the initial rounds of precipitation at the beginning of the
forecast period, dry conditions are largely anticipated for the
rest of the period.

Temperatures...
The cold front will produce a period of near or just below normal
temperatures for the overnight period Thursday night and also on
Friday. A slow warmup then arrives over the weekend into next
week, which will bring temperatures back to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs remains in place across the region late
this evening but will give way to more IFR during the overnight
hours through Thursday morning. VSBYs have generally been VFR,
but some patchy fog and drizzle moving into the area could bring
periods of MVFR to IFR visibility overnight as evidenced by
upstream observations. Patchy fog will be something to watch as
well, as this could bring ceilings and visibility back towards
IFR. Drizzle aside, widespread showers are unlikely during the
early portions of the overnight hours before additional rain
returns early on Thursday. Conditions should then improve Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening as high pressure builds in across
the upper Mississippi Valley in the wake of a cold front. CIGs
should improve to MVFR across northern Wisconsin with VFR
conditions across central and east- central Wisconsin Thursday
evening.

Southwesterly winds are expected overnight. Expect occasional
gusts to continue to mix to the surface up to 15 to 20 kts,
increasing to 20 to 25 kts during the day Thursday. Winds then
turn northwest to northerly late Thursday morning into Thursday
afternoon as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A prolonged period of gusty southerly winds and high waves will
come to an end later tonight on the lake. The Small Craft
Advisory on the lake expires at 6 am Thursday. The break in the
hazardous conditions will be brief as gusty northwest winds are
expected to develop during the afternoon and continue into
Friday. Gale force gusts are possible Thursday afternoon and
evening. A Gale Warning has been posted from noon to 9 pm on
Thursday for the bay and lake. After the Gale Warning expires, A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 9 pm Thursday to 6 pm
Friday due to the gusty winds and high waves.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kurimski
MARINE.........Uhlmann