NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 100950 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
450 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost linger into early this morning for mainly
  northern portions of the area. A Frost Advisory may be needed
  later tonight and early Monday morning over portions of
  southern Wisconsin.

- Breezy and cooler today, with some sprinkles in the late
  morning and afternoon in northern parts of the area.

- A clipper system brings higher end shower chances (50 to 80
  percent) for Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will be possible,
  but no severe storms are anticipated at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 450 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas of frost will linger into early this morning for mainly
northern portions of southern Wisconsin where temperatures have
dipped into the middle 30s.

Northwest winds will become gusty today with deep mixing. There
should be broken high-based stratocumulus clouds that develop by
midday into the afternoon per forecast soundings. There may be
enough moisture there for some sprinkles to develop later this
morning into this afternoon, as some differential CVA from a
lingering 500 mb trough moves through. Kept it in northern
portions of the area, but it could occur further south as well.
Highs should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure should move southeast into the region tonight and
Monday, with lighter winds expected. Clearing skies tonight
should allow for radiational cooling and more widespread lows in
the middle 30s. Thus, a Frost Advisory may be needed for
portions of the area.

An easterly lake breeze is expected later Monday morning into
the afternoon. Highs should be in the 50s closer to the
lakeshore, with upper 50s to middle 60s well inland.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1227 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Today through Monday Night:

Areas of frost will be possible inland overnight. Temperatures
will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, so a frost advisory
will not be needed.

Today, expect mostly dry conditions, save for some small
potential (~10%) for sprinkles north of I-94 in association with
a weak shortwave aloft. Clouds will increase heading into the
afternoon with widespread cu expected. Highs around 60.

Tonight, colder temperatures are expected in the low to mid 30s
as high pressure builds into the region. More widespread frost
is possible and a Frost Advisory may be needed.

Dry weather continues Monday as high pressure lingers. East
winds off of the lake will lead to much cooler highs along the
lake in the low 50s, while areas well inland will see highs in
the low 60s.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1226 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

A low pressure system is expected to pass over the arrowhead
region of Minnesota Tuesday morning and over Lake Superior
during the afternoon. This low will drag a warm front over
Wisconsin during the morning and then a cold front during the
late afternoon. At this time, 2 periods of rain appear possible,
with some scattered morning rain along the WAA push into our
area, and then more rain along the cold front late in the day.
The warm sector of the low doesn't look rich with moisture, and
model soundings only show skinny CAPE in the environment during
the afternoon. Any afternoon storms on Tuesday will likely be
sub severe and weak, as only a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE and
MUCAPE will be available.

High pressure then takes hold Wednesday through Thursday with
WAA causing a warming trend heading into next weekend. A
stormier pattern then takes hold next weekend as a warm
front/stationary front parks over the region and passing
shortwaves kick off rounds of potential showers and storms.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 450 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Northwest winds will become gusty today. There should be broken
clouds around 7000 to 9000 feet AGL that develop by midday
into the afternoon. There may be enough moisture there for some
sprinkles to develop later this morning into this afternoon.

High pressure should move southeast into the region tonight and
Monday, with lighter winds expected. Clearing skies are
expected tonight and should be mostly clear into Monday.

An easterly lake breeze is expected later Monday morning into
the afternoon, with light winds elsewhere.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 450 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

High pressure around 30.3 inches is expected to move from
southern Manitoba to over Lake Michigan today into Monday.
Relatively light and variable winds are expected during most of
this period.

Northwest winds may be gusty near the Lake Michigan shoreline
this afternoon, and may approach Small Craft Advisory levels.

A backdoor cold front is expected to shift southward across the
lake late this afternoon and this evening, bringing briefly
gusty northeast winds behind it before weakening.

Low pressure around 29.7 inches should then move gradually east
southeast across or north of Lake Superior Tuesday into Tuesday
night. The low will bring a cold front southeast through the
region. Gusty south to southeast winds are expected ahead of the
front Tuesday, veering west to northwest behind it and
remaining gusty for Tuesday night into Wednesday. A Small Craft
Advisory for winds and waves may be needed for the nearshore
waters for portions of Tuesday into Wednesday.

High pressure around 30.2 inches should then move southeast into
the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing lighter winds.

CMiller/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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FXUS63 KMKX 100951 AAB
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
450 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost linger into early this morning for mainly
  northern portions of the area. A Frost Advisory may be needed
  later tonight and early Monday morning over portions of
  southern Wisconsin.

- Breezy and cooler today, with some sprinkles in the late
  morning and afternoon in northern parts of the area.

- A clipper system brings higher end shower chances (50 to 80
  percent) for Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will be possible,
  but no severe storms are anticipated at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 450 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas of frost will linger into early this morning for mainly
northern portions of southern Wisconsin where temperatures have
dipped into the middle 30s.

Northwest winds will become gusty today with deep mixing. There
should be broken high-based stratocumulus clouds that develop by
midday into the afternoon per forecast soundings. There may be
enough moisture there for some sprinkles to develop later this
morning into this afternoon, as some differential CVA from a
lingering 500 mb trough moves through. Kept it in northern
portions of the area, but it could occur further south as well.
Highs should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure should move southeast into the region tonight and
Monday, with lighter winds expected. Clearing skies tonight
should allow for radiational cooling and more widespread lows in
the middle 30s. Thus, a Frost Advisory may be needed for
portions of the area.

An easterly lake breeze is expected later Monday morning into
the afternoon. Highs should be in the 50s closer to the
lakeshore, with upper 50s to middle 60s well inland.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1227 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Today through Monday Night:

Areas of frost will be possible inland overnight. Temperatures
will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, so a frost advisory
will not be needed.

Today, expect mostly dry conditions, save for some small
potential (~10%) for sprinkles north of I-94 in association with
a weak shortwave aloft. Clouds will increase heading into the
afternoon with widespread cu expected. Highs around 60.

Tonight, colder temperatures are expected in the low to mid 30s
as high pressure builds into the region. More widespread frost
is possible and a Frost Advisory may be needed.

Dry weather continues Monday as high pressure lingers. East
winds off of the lake will lead to much cooler highs along the
lake in the low 50s, while areas well inland will see highs in
the low 60s.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1226 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

A low pressure system is expected to pass over the arrowhead
region of Minnesota Tuesday morning and over Lake Superior
during the afternoon. This low will drag a warm front over
Wisconsin during the morning and then a cold front during the
late afternoon. At this time, 2 periods of rain appear possible,
with some scattered morning rain along the WAA push into our
area, and then more rain along the cold front late in the day.
The warm sector of the low doesn't look rich with moisture, and
model soundings only show skinny CAPE in the environment during
the afternoon. Any afternoon storms on Tuesday will likely be
sub severe and weak, as only a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE and
MUCAPE will be available.

High pressure then takes hold Wednesday through Thursday with
WAA causing a warming trend heading into next weekend. A
stormier pattern then takes hold next weekend as a warm
front/stationary front parks over the region and passing
shortwaves kick off rounds of potential showers and storms.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 450 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Northwest winds will become gusty today. There should be broken
clouds around 7000 to 9000 feet AGL that develop by midday
into the afternoon. There may be enough moisture there for some
sprinkles to develop later this morning into this afternoon.

High pressure should move southeast into the region tonight and
Monday, with lighter winds expected. Clearing skies are
expected tonight and should be mostly clear into Monday.

An easterly lake breeze is expected later Monday morning into
the afternoon, with light winds elsewhere.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 450 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

High pressure around 30.3 inches is expected to move from
southern Manitoba to over Lake Michigan today into Monday.
Relatively light and variable winds are expected during most of
this period.

Northwest winds may be gusty near the Lake Michigan shoreline
this afternoon, and may approach Small Craft Advisory levels.

A backdoor cold front is expected to shift southward across the
lake late this afternoon and this evening, bringing briefly
gusty northeast winds behind it before weakening.

Low pressure around 29.7 inches should then move gradually east
southeast across or north of Lake Superior Tuesday into Tuesday
night. The low will bring a cold front southeast through the
region. Gusty south to southeast winds are expected ahead of the
front Tuesday, veering west to northwest behind it and
remaining gusty for Tuesday night into Wednesday. A Small Craft
Advisory for winds and waves may be needed for the nearshore
waters for portions of Tuesday into Wednesday.

High pressure around 30.2 inches should then move southeast into
the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing lighter winds.

CMiller/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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