NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 200403
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1103 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog may occur tonight into early Thursday morning
  across parts of southwest and south central Wisconsin.

- Dry and pleasant conditions through Thursday with drier air
  in place.

- Shower/storm chances return Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

Given some weak high pressure overhead tonight we should see
some fog develop over parts of southwest and south central WI
with models generally pointing toward those areas as a focus for
fog development. Dense fog is not expected at this time.
Thursday looks to be on the quiet side overall with that weak
high pressure remaining in place long enough to keep things dry
through the day. Thursday night and into Friday we expect a
weak surface low to swing through with instability to bring some
storms though likely to be weak given weak shear. The forcing
with this seems largely focused along the a shortwave with
enough forcing for showers and weak storms the only real concern
is whether the moisture will be widespread enough to make
precip chances more widespread. Right now on Friday chances have
been somewhat limited in southwest extent with better chances
toward central WI and as the front pushes east moisture seems to
improve into Friday afternoon and evening. This likely pushes
out for the most part some time Friday night.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

Models suggest a weak chance for precip chances to linger into
Saturday as weak low pressure pushes out particularly on the
eastern side of the CWA but generally models push the moisture
and the vast majority of forcing from the upper level wave
having already pushed out. Generally Saturday should feature
high pressure nudging into the region keeping things for the
most part on the drier side. Sunday and Monday the high pressure
further builds into the region keeping things dry through
Monday. By late Monday night into Tuesday we will see our next
best chance for showers and storms as and 850mb front and upper
level shortwave swing through with some WAA. Still some
uncertainty in track and such but models generally agree on this
pushing through bringing precip with likely some storms as well.
In addition, deep layer shear appears to be strong in the
40-50kt range which would bring some severe risk if the timing
of storms is into the evening.

After Tuesday, uncertainty increases quite a bit though in
general higher pressure seems to be pushing in with drier
conditions overall more likely.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Weak high pressure overhead will allow for light winds overnight
and will thus bring a chance for fog across parts of southern WI
with models indicating southwest and south central WI seeing the
best chance for fog with VSBYS as low as a half mile tonight in
spots. Otherwise expect quiet conditions through the day
Thursday with VFR conditions expected the rest of the TAF period
though some shower and weak storm chances Thursday night and
Friday may cause temporary VSBYS degradation for short periods.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Light to modest winds are expected into Thursday, as high
pressure around 30.0 inches tracks through the western Great
Lakes region. As the high exits to the southeast later Thursday
into Thursday night, south to southwest winds will develop.
Gusty southwest winds, as well as shower and thunderstorm
chances, return Friday into Friday night, as low pressure around
29.8 inches moves across the region and drags a cold front
through. Gusty winds will shift to the northwest later Friday
night into Saturday after the front moves through. High pressure
around 30.2 inches moving toward the region later in the
weekend may help maintain gusty north winds.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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