NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 260504
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1104 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and breezy conditions are expected Friday

- An east-west oriented, narrow band of accumulating snow is
  likely over southern Wisconsin on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Tonight Through Thursday Night:

Clear skies and light winds allowed for us to quickly decouple
in the evening and the temperatures dropped into the single
digits in central WI, and teens to lower 20s elsewhere in
southern WI. Mid level clouds associated with a weak shortwave
crossing IA and IL are spreading into southern WI and preventing
a little of the cooling that central WI is seeing.

Light southwesterly winds will develop Thursday afternoon as a
weak clipper system tracks across Lake Superior. Warm air
advection will help bring the temps in srn WI up to around 40 by
late afternoon. The precip associated with this clipper is now
expected to remain north of the MKX forecast area, as there will
be too much dry air in place here.

Southwest winds will be light Thursday night with lows in the
upper 20s.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Friday through Thursday:

Southerly flow returns Friday as strong low pressure pivots
through southern Manitoba. Plenty of warm air to the southwest
will advect into southern Wisconsin, bringing well-above average
temperatures back into the region for the day. Temperatures as
high as 60 degrees are possible in southeastern portions of the
state, while the rest of southern Wisconsin sees temperatures in
the 50s. Gusty southwest winds will accompany these higher
temperatures, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. A cold front
will sweep through the area Friday night, bringing lows in the 20s
and northwesterly winds.

Lingering lift from this trailing cold front then looks to
interact with a developing low in the Colorado Rockies by way of a
strong Arctic high pressing southward from the Canadian Prairies
on Saturday. Between all these systems, a narrow band of rapid
lift will develop and produce snowfall. Depending on how quickly
high pressure sinks southward, this band may sink into Illinois,
but at this time modeling is in fair agreement that snow will fall
from the I-94 corridor southward (60% chance). Snow will sink
southeastward through the course of the afternoon and evening as
high pressure builds in and subsidence takes hold. Depending on
placement, a narrow area may see several inches of snow, but
confidence in exact placement remains low at this time.

Arctic high pressure over the area Saturday night will allow for
clearing skies and plenty of radiational cooling underneath a cold
airmass. Expect lows in the low teens to upper single digits with
light winds keeping wind chills in the single digits above zero.
High pressure will continue eastward but remain dominant through
Sunday. At the same time, the Colorado low will sink southward and
eject into the southern Plains, leading to some slight
precipitation chances (~20%) across far southern Wisconsin Sunday
night as high pressure exits.

A dynamic pattern continues through early next week. Monday, high
pressure over southern Wisconsin will push out any remaining
precipitation chances to the southeast, while an additional low
pressure system pivots through southern Canada. Into Monday night,
winds will shift southwesterly again as a weak frontal boundary
moves through. This may lead to some light precipitation across
the region, but recent model trends are toward dry conditions.
Tuesday, temperatures rise into the low 40s during the morning
hours ahead of a cold front, with additional potential for showers
along the cold front. High pressure returns Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with southeasterly winds developing Wednesday afternoon
as low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies again. Model
solutions diverge Wednesday night into Thursday due to differences
in phasing between the Rocky Mountains low and a shortwave
traversing through Canada. Still, precipitation looks to make a
return on Thursday. Temperatures will depend on which wave becomes
dominant and therefore whether Wisconsin ends up within the warm
sector or north of the warm front.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Mid level clouds are expected overnight through Thursday, but
the main areas of precipitation will remain to the south of WI
overnight and to the north of southern WI on Thursday. Low level
wind shear is expected Thursday night.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

High pressure of 30.0 inches over the Upper Great Lakes will
depart Thursday as a weak clipper of 29.7 inches tracks toward
Lake Superior. South to southwest winds will then increase later
Thursday afternoon into Friday as low pressure of 29.3 inches
over Saskatchewan deepens to 29.1 inches over Ontario. The
associated cold front will cross Lake Michigan Friday afternoon
and evening. A few gales will be possible across northern
portions of the lake later Friday into Friday night behind the
front. Breezy northerly winds will continue Saturday between
departing low pressure and a strong high approaching from the
northwest.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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