NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 161015
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
415 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of light snow (80 to 100 percent chances) will move
  east across the area this morning, bringing snow covered roads
  for the morning commute.

- Scattered snow showers (30 to 40 percent or higher) are
  expected this afternoon and evening, with brief heavier
  snowfall rates possible and quick reductions in visibility and
  snow covered roads for the evening commute.

- Light snow showers may occur later tonight (20 to 30 percent
  chances), with light snow showers likely Saturday (60 percent
  chances) and light snow likely again Sunday afternoon (60
  percent chances). Accumulations should be light (under an inch
  each period).

- Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend through
  the early part of next week. The coldest temperatures and wind
  chills are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Wind chills may
  approach Cold Weather Advisory criteria (20 degrees below
  zero) Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 415 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Today through Saturday night:

An area of light to moderate snow will continue to push east
across the area this morning, bringing snow covered roads for
the morning commute. This snow is being driven by a combination
of upper divergence from a left exit region of a 300 mb jet
streak, differential CVA in the 400 to 600 mb layer and focused
warm air advection in the 925 mb to 850 mb layer. This will help
bring deep upward vertical motion and saturation, which will
negate any concerns for freezing drizzle. Snowfall rates of
around one quarter inch per hour are expected, with one half
inch per hour rates possible. An additional one half to one and
one half inches of snow accumulation are possible with this
round of snow.

There may be a brief lull in the snow activity after this round
of snow moves out of the area by later this morning. CAMs
suggest the development of scattered snow showers (30 to 40
percent chances, perhaps higher) by middle afternoon and
lingering into early to middle evening. This is in response to
an Arctic cold front moving east through the area in the late
afternoon and evening.

There is the potential for convective snow showers to occur
along and ahead of the front, with forecast soundings showing
saturated and steep low level lapse rates, some weak instability
and some frontogenesis response along the front. Would like to
see a better wind shift and stronger winds along and behind the
front for a more classic snow squall setup, though the parameter
does reach 1 to 2 or a little more across the area on the
NAM/GFS, with the RAP/HRRR are more aggressive with these
values. Anything above a 1 is favorable for snow squalls, so
they are not out of the question.

In addition, temperatures in the lower to middle 30s this
afternoon should drop quickly into the 20s after the front moves
through by early to middle evening, so a flash freeze is
possible and may add to impacts.

At the least, some convective/intense snow showers, which is
what the HRRR reflectivity forecast is showing, are possible.
Will have to monitor this period for potential impacts,
including quickly reduced visibility and brief heavy snowfall
rates for the evening commute period.

Light snow showers may occur later tonight into Saturday
morning, as the 500 mb low shifts southeast from eastern Iowa
into west central Illinois. Forecast soundings keep the low
levels moist with steep lapse rates in the dendrite snow growth
zone. Colder temperatures will move in as well, within cold air
advection.

There may be better chances (60 percent) for light snow showers
Saturday afternoon, as low level frontogenesis response shifts
across northern and central portions of the area and a deep
moist layer within the dendrite snow growth zone develops. Any
accumulations should be under one half inch.

The snow showers should wind down Saturday night, with colder
temperatures moving into the area. Lows Saturday night may drop
into the single digits above zero, with wind chills in the
single digits below zero.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 415 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

Latest models are in pretty good agreement that a shortwave
will move through Sunday and bring light snow accumulations to
southern Wisconsin. This system will also bring a cold front
through the area by later in the day, with temps dropping to
around or just below zero by daybreak Monday.

Gusty winds later Sunday into Monday will result in bitterly
cold wind chills of 15 below to 25 below zero, the coldest
conditions later Sunday night into early Monday morning. High
temps Monday will likely struggle to get much above zero, with
breezy winds persisting and keeping wind chills in the 10 below
to 20 below zero range through the daytime hours. Winds should
ease a bit Monday night into Tuesday, as high pressure slides by
to the southwest.

Dry weather is likely Monday into Tuesday, with a shortwave
possibly brining snow chances back to the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Temperatures will be a little milder mid-week,
though likely remaining below normal.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 415 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

An area of light to moderate snow will continue to push east
across the area this morning, bringing snow covered runways.
Freezing drizzle is no longer expected. Snowfall rates of
around one quarter inch per hour are expected, with one half
inch per hour rates possible. An additional one half to one and
one half inches of snow accumulation are possible with this
round of snow. Southwest winds this morning are expected, with
ceilings in the 700 to 1300 foot AGL range, and general
visibility of 3/4 to 2 miles.

There may be a brief lull in the snow activity after this round
of snow moves out of the area by later this morning. Scattered
snow showers should develop by middle afternoon and linger into
early to middle evening. This is in response to an Arctic cold
front moving east through the area. Winds will shift west and
become gusty this afternoon, and west northwest tonight.
Ceilings in the 1500 to 2000 foot AGL range are anticipated.

There is the potential for more intense snow showers to occur
along and ahead of the front. In addition, temperatures in the
lower to middle 30s this afternoon should drop quickly into the
20s after the front moves through by early to middle evening, so
a flash freeze is possible. Quickly reduced visibility to less
than 1 mile and brief heavy snowfall rates are possible with
these stronger snow showers.

Light snow showers may occur later tonight into Saturday
morning, with ceilings in the 2500 to 3500 foot AGL range and
west northwest winds lingering. There may be better chances for
light snow showers Saturday afternoon. Any accumulations should
be under one half inch. The snow showers should wind down
Saturday night.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 415 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Breezy southwesterly winds will continue to build over Lake
Michigan today, as low pressure around 29.4 inches over western
Ontario moves to the northern Lake Michigan. The low will then
gradually weaken as it shifts into northern Lake Huron tonight
and eastern Ontario on Saturday. The breezy southwest winds will
shift westerly by early this evening, with the passage of a
cold front. These winds will linger into Saturday night.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan into this evening, for gusty southwest
to west winds. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed
at times Saturday into early next week for gusty winds.

Winds are then expected to return to the southwest and increase
for Sunday, as another low pressure system strengthens to
around 29.4 inches as it tracks into the Lake Superior Sunday
afternoon and evening. The associated cold front will sweep
across Lake Michigan, as the low quickly pushes east into
Monday.

Stronger northwesterly winds are expected to develop behind the
departing low and cold front Sunday night through Monday. There
will be a potential for gales during this time frame, including
the nearshore waters, along with building waves.

Otherwise, low pressure around 29.5 inches shifts east later
Monday, with high pressure around 30.5 inches remaining to the
southwest and south of the region Monday night into Tuesday.

Given the colder Arctic airmass settling over the region and
the brisk winds, expect freezing spray across Lake Michigan this
weekend and continuing into next week. Some heavy freezing
spray may be possible Sunday night into Monday.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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