FXUS63 KMKX 030413
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasingly warm and continued low relative humidity days
through Thursday.
- Increasing humidity and thunderstorm chances for late Thursday
night through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
Rest of Tonight through Thursday:
Calm winds and clear skies will give way to a southwest breeze
by mid Wednesday morning and increasing high clouds in the
afternoon. Expect a lake breeze to develop and reach Milwaukee
just after noon, so this will give them a little more time to
warm into the mid 70s than the past few days. Inland areas will
see highs in the lower 80s.
Southwest winds will become breezy on Thursday as the high exits
and low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains. As long as
there is not too many high clouds overhead from the upstream
convection Wed nt, high temperatures Thursday will be in the mid
to upper 80s, including the lakeshore (south of Port
Washington). This will be a favorable wind direction for the
Milwaukee Metro area to heat up into the upper 80s. With
dewpoints still in the 40s, the heat index values will be close
to the temperatures.
Cronce
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
Thursday night through Monday:
The closed upper low that has been sitting over the Northern
Plains and producing rounds of storms each evening will finally track
eastward across the southern Canadian border Wednesday and
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, it will be getting into
Ontario. Meanwhile, an upper trough sitting over the southern
Plains and the high over the east central U.S. will be in
position for mid-level disturbances to propagate from Mexico
into the Upper Midwest. This will draw gulf moisture into
Wisconsin by Thursday evening.
For comparison, the precipitable water values will go from
around 0.5 inch today to 1.75 inches Thursday night through
Friday night. Dewpoints will rise into the upper 50s Thursday,
and then push into the lower-mid 60s Friday.
Central WI will be within the right entrance region of the upper
jet, on the nose of the low level jet, and within a mid level
shortwave (vorticity advection). This forcing and the moisture
should be enough for a thunderstorm complex to develop in the
late evening hours (location still uncertain) and for storms to
slowly track through southern WI Thursday night into Friday
morning. If the storm complex can become organized, severe wind
is a threat. If the storms remain more discrete, then wind and
hail would be lesser threats, but still present. At a minimum,
this is looking like a good setup for beneficial rainfall.
The weak ripples/shortwaves in the mid level flow will still be
over central/southern WI all day Friday. Thus, there will be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms all day. The upper jet will
remain stationary (right entrance region right over southern WI)
until Saturday morning. This means storms will be possible any
time until the main cold front finally swings through around
midday Saturday.
We will be under high pressure Sunday and Monday. Then an upper
low meandering through the Plains will bring increasing chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms to southwest WI for Tuesday
and Wednesday.
Cronce
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
Clear skies tonight will give way to more high clouds tomorrow
(Wed). Winds will start to increase out of the south Wed
afternoon. Expect a lake breeze to hit KMKE by early afternoon.
A few gusts up to 16KT are possible with the southerly breeze
and lake breeze.
Cronce
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
High pressure over Lake Michigan will shift to Lower Michigan
by Wednesday afternoon. Light and variable winds will become
southerly Wednesday night as the high pressure slowly moves east
of the region. Modest south to southwest winds will then
prevail over the lake for Thursday into Saturday morning
followed by a wind shift to the north during a cold frontal
passage Saturday afternoon. Shower and storm chances will return
Thursday night through Saturday.
For the nearshore areas of southeast WI, persistent southerly
winds will build high waves Thursday afternoon and evening,
mainly north of Port Washington. A few gusts up to 25 kt are
possible. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect.
Cronce
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...2 PM Thursday to 10 PM
Thursday.
&&
$$
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