NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion
FXUS63 KMKX 231627
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1027 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerously cold conditions continue through Saturday morning.
Wind chills between -35 and -45 expected this morning, with
wind chills between -25 and -35 tonight. The lowest wind
chills tonight are expected to be in east-central Wisconsin.
- Confidence in snow showers off Lake Michigan Saturday evening through
Sunday night grows. Probabilities have increased to 30-50%
for southeastern Wisconsin. Lower chances (20-35%) across east
central Wisconsin.
- Additional Cold Weather Advisory conditions possible Sunday
night into Monday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Wind chills have likely reached their minimums this morning,
although a few brief gusts may still bring lower chills.
However, temperatures will begin to recover within the next
hour. Highs in the negative single digits are expected, with
current temperatures in the mid negative teens. Winds are also
slowly diminishing across the area, with gusts around 20 mph
still expected through this afternoon. With continual gusts,
confidence is high that areas from Ozaukee to Dodge County
northward through Marquette to Sheboygan County will continue to
see wind chills between negative 28 and negative 33 degrees
through this afternoon, and therefore the Extreme Cold Warning
will continue in those regions through today. Elsewhere, as
temperatures rise and winds decrease, will replace the Extreme
Cold Warning with a Cold Weather Advisory.
This evening, expect gusts to diminish and sustained winds
around 10 mph. Meanwhile, the core of the Arctic high will build
in just to our west, leading to expected lows in the negative 18
to negative 20 degree range inland from Lake Michigan. With lows
in this range, only a light wind is needed for dangerously cold
wind chills, so the Cold Weather Advisory will continue through
tonight.
MH
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 402 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Today through Saturday:
Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Bitterly cold air is settling into southern
Wisconsin this morning, with all sites reporting air temperatures
between -5 and -15. Combined with breezy northeast winds, wind
chills have fallen to anywhere between the -25 to -30 range in
southeast Wisconsin to near -40 further northwest. Expect wind chill
readings to fall another 5 to 10 degrees through daybreak. With cold
advection continuing into this afternoon, anticipate little
improvement with the heating of the day today. Currently over the
Northern Plains, high pressure will gradually work into the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight, and ultimately southern Wisconsin during
the day Saturday. The high's approach will bring gradually
decreasing winds and slowly-improving wind chill conditions by
Saturday afternoon. Nevertheless, headline-level wind chills will
continue through Saturday morning, with widespread readings in the
25 to 35 below range expected from this evening into Saturday
morning. As such, those not needing to be outdoors should continue
to limit time outside through Saturday morning. Those needing to be
outdoors should continue to dress in multiple layers, ensuring that
any exposed skin is covered.
Rest of Overnight: Areas of very light flurries/snow showers will
taper through daybreak. Thanks to just enough lift along a secondary
cold front & moisture within the DGZ, activity managed to linger
through the first half of the overnight hours, with brief/minor
visibility reductions being reported at impacted locations. Very dry
air arriving from the north has largely shut activity off as of 3
AM, with trends expected to continue through sunrise.
Today through Saturday: Bitterly cold conditions will continue
across the area, though with some "moderation" relative to the
ongoing conditions. The diurnal cycle/heating of the day will allow
for some recovery in air temps & thus wind chills this afternoon,
with readings rising above Extreme Cold Warning thresholds by early
afternoon across most of southern Wisconsin. Expect wind chill
readings to remain above warning thresholds for good across ~the
southwest half of the area, though readings are forecast to dip back
below warning thresholds further northeast after sunset tonight.
Given these expectations, have extended the Extreme Cold Warning
through 6 AM CST Saturday in Marquette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac,
Sheboygan, Dodge, Washington, and Ozaukee Counties, with a Cold
Weather Advisory going into effect in these locations between 6 AM
and 12 PM CST Saturday as conditions begin to improve. Everywhere
else, the Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect until 1 PM CST this
afternoon, with a Cold Weather Advisory going into effect between 1
PM CST today through 12 PM CST Saturday. Continue to practice cold
weather safety across all of southern Wisconsin through Saturday
morning.
Quigley
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 402 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Saturday night through Thursday:
Sfc high pressure will be meandering across the Great Lakes Region
into the New England states Saturday night through late Sunday
night. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will develop across the Gulf
coast states and move into the Appalachians. This will set up a
period of mostly north to south winds across Lake Michigan. Looking
aloft around 500mb there will be a shortwave trough moving through
the flow. So while there is high pressure at the sfc, there will be
some lift aloft and banded lake effect snow setting up across the
longest fetch of Lake Michigan. Its likely that we will get a meso
vort over the southern basin of Lake Michigan Saturday that will
persist through Sunday. Winds will turn as the sfc high approaches
the lake and there is a decent chance for some east to northeast
winds on the leading edge. This will provide a window of lake effect
snow (LES) and lake enhancement. True lake effect snow chances are
lower as winds will be turning which isnt conducive for the
traditional lake effect set up that west Michigan normally gets.
Onshore winds with the presence of the shortwave aloft should
provide enough moisture and lift to give some solid lake enhancement
though. Guidance, from global to meso and deterministic to ensemble,
is cluing in on these chances. With the arctic air in place there's
no question on precip type, but more on amounts and snow
characteristics.
If the meso vort over the southern basin advects a few lake effect
snow bands toward the western coast, there will be a chance for a
couple inches of snow when everything is all said and done. This
would then be multiple hours of LES and lake enhancement.
Southeastern Wisconsin including, Racine, Kenosha, Milwaukee and
maybe eastern Waukesha are the mostly likely areas to be impacted by
any LES or lake enhanced snow. This area is fairly broad, but there
is uncertainty on how far inland this would move. Now the caveat
that comes with any LES system, will it or will it not move inland.
In the event that this all stays off shore this AFD will be for
naught as we may get a dusting from the shortwave trough. On the
other hand if the worse happens and we get multiple LES bands moving
inland, then there could be some decent snow totals. A real hit or
bust forecast.
As we head into Monday, the high pressure is to our east and
southerly winds return. Weak WAA will return late Monday into
Tuesday which will bring the smallest relief from the frigid
temperatures over the weekend. Don't expect a big swing in
temperatures here as another upper level trough will swing through
Ontario and Quebec Monday into Tuesday, which will drag a cold front
across the state. This front looks fairly weak and moisture will be
very limited so not much in the way of snow chances (15% or less).
CAA returns and temperatures remain in the low teens for highs and
below zero for the lows through the rest of the week. Thankfully
winds look light and dry weather looks likely.
Patterson
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
VFR conditions expected throughout today and tonight, with
slowly diminishing northwesterly winds. Gusts up to 20 kt still
possible through this afternoon, with sustained winds at 5 to 10
kt overnight. Winds will briefly become light and variable
Saturday afternoon as high pressure slides overhead, then become
steady and northerly overnight Saturday. Some lake effect snow
may impact Lake Michigan terminals from MKE southward Saturday
night, but confidence in placement and intensity is low at this
time.
MH
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 402 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Northwest gales will continue through the rest of the overnight
hours as 1002 mb low pressure lingers over northern Quebec and 1050
mb high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. Said high
will build east today, allowing for a gradual north to south
decrease in wind gusts during the morning hours. A Gale Warning thus
remains in effect until 8 AM CST over the northern half of Lake
Michigan and until 12 PM CST further south. Trends will continue to
be monitored through the morning hours. High pressure will move into
the upper Mississippi River Valley tonight, ultimately crossing Lake
Michigan during the day Saturday. Progression of the high will
result in continued decreasing northwest winds through tonight, with
readings ultimately becoming light & variable by Saturday afternoon.
Waves will remain elevated enough to support continued heavy
freezing spray potential into tonight, with steady decreases in wave
heights resulting in diminishing potential by daybreak Saturday.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings thus remain in effect until 3 AM CST
Saturday over all of Lake Michigan.
High pressure will linger from the Lower Peninsula of Michigan into
Quebec Saturday night into Sunday. Weak low pressure near 1036 mb
may develop over the southern third of the waters Saturday morning &
afternoon, but isn't expected to bring any appreciable impacts
outside of some lake effect snow potential. 1006 mb low pressure
will develop over the southeastern United States on Sunday,
progressing toward the northeastern United States as it deepens to
near 990 mb Sunday night through Monday. Progression of the low, in
addition to the movement of 1040 mb high pressure from the northern
to the southern Great Plains, will result in increasing winds across
Lake Michigan Sunday through Monday. Winds will initially be north
to northeast Sunday, trending northwesterly and ultimately westerly
Sunday night through Monday afternoon. 1010 mb low pressure is
forecast to form somewhere from Lake Superior to the Hudson Bay
Monday night, bringing potentially stronger southwest winds Monday
evening into early Tuesday morning. Depending on the ultimate
central pressure & development location of the low, a few
southwesterly gales may occur over the southern third of the open
waters. Trends will be monitored in coming forecasts.
Winds will gradually trend downward Tuesday through Wednesday as
1038 mb high pressure moves into the northern Great Plains. Elevated
wave heights will combine with still chilly temperatures to support
additional periods of moderate to perhaps heavy freezing spray
Monday night into Thursday. Trends will be monitored for potential
headlines in coming forecasts.
Gusty northwest winds will support continued Small Craft Advisory
conditions in nearshore zones through today, with a Small Craft
Advisory remaining in effect until 6 PM CST. Additional periods of
Small Craft Advisory waves and wind gusts are possible Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves from the
southeastern to northeastern United States. Will continue to monitor
for headlines in coming forecasts.
Quigley
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Extreme Cold Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-
WIZ059-WIZ060 until 6 AM Saturday.
Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-
WIZ059-WIZ060...6 AM Saturday to noon Saturday.
Extreme Cold Warning...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-
WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072
until 1 PM Friday.
Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-
WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072
until noon Saturday.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
until noon Friday.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
until 3 AM Saturday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
Friday.
&&
$$
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