NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 281004
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
404 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills below zero degrees will continue through Friday,
  with overnight minimum wind chills in the negative teens each
  night.

- Chances (30 to 60 percent) for lake effect snow showers
  develop across Lake Michigan counties early Friday morning and
  may continue into late Saturday morning. There is potential
  for a couple inches of snow if snow bands persist onshore, but
  confidence in exact timing and placement is low.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 404 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Today through Thursday:

Overall today through Thursday will be largely dry across
southern Wisconsin. There is shortwave trough in northeastern
MN that will track southeast through the rest of this morning
and reach southern Wisconsin around day break. As this trough
moves through there will be a potential for a scattered cloud
deck to develop across the state. The uncertainty in its
development relies more in how expansive it will become as there
are already wisps of the scattered deck upstream. Currently
from the day cloud phase satellite this area of clouds is very
narrow. Dry air in place over southern Wisconsin between the sfc
and 850 mb will work against this cloud development, but
similar to yesterday with the snow, there could be enough
forcing to cause clouds to develop. If clouds do develop they
will likely stick around through the afternoon hours then
dissipate once the sun begins to set again (late afternoon/early
evening).

High pressure will be building into the northern plains and clip
the western Great Lakes Region this afternoon into this evening.
Another push of arctic air will come with it which will keep
highs around 10 to 14 degrees today. Thankfully with the high
pressure in place winds should be weak/mild and keep wind chills
in check through tonight. This high will strengthen across the
northern plains Thursday morning as a low pressure system in the
southern plains begins to track northeast into the Ozarks.
Overall the high will win out in regards to precipitation (or
the lack of it), but winds will become northerly as these two
system interact.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 404 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Thursday night through Tuesday:

With the push of some more arctic air and northerly winds, there
will be another potential for some lake effect snow for the end
of the work week. With predominately north to northwest winds
expected for much of the Thursday night, lake effect snow should
stay off shore. As we head into early Friday morning, there
looks to be a greater push for north to northeast winds. Now
before we get into the nitty gritty of wind direction and
whether or not Lake Effect Snow (LES) moves inland and how
powerful it is, lets quickly highlight the basics that are not
in question. We have a good cold layer at 850 mb and a warmer
lake so we will have the good upward momentum and the lake is
always there to provide moisture. We will have some decent
fetch on the range of at least 50 miles if not slightly higher
(it wont be as impressive as portions of Chicago and Gary can
get with the entire north to south expanse of LM). There will be
a 500 mb trough swinging through Friday which will provide
synoptic lift and provide more organized snow. So the basics
are all here.


The few questions that remain will be how strong our 850 mb
winds are to drive LES inland and how stable those winds will
be. LES normally thrives the most in scenarios where wind
direction doesnt change by more than 30 degrees at a time. With
the upper level low progged to move south down LM, there will
inevitably be a changing direction, but how quickly does this
occur and is it enough at 850 mb. Looking at the big picture its
a chance for either minor to moderate accumulations (1 inch or
less to a couple of inches - similar to our last LES event
earlier in the week). Snowfall amounts will trend lower and
weaker the more the winds shift overtime. The GFS is a good
example of stronger 850 mb winds and quick turning. It advects
weaker showers inland clipping multiple counties with some
quick hitting, but overall weak snow showers. By contrast, the
NAM and the CAN have more of a single banded approach that could
lead to higher totals for a specific location. The take away
here is that there is a lot of uncertainty still yet to figure
out, which may not come into clear focus until the band has
developed (something that happens often on the western side of
the Lake). POPs were increased along the lake shore counties to
roughly 30 to 60% as guidance across the board has the
ingredients necessary and shows some snow moving inland, but
stay up to date on the forecast for more specifics as we get
closer to early Friday morning through mid to late Saturday.
Areas well inland can enjoy the quiet weather.

While all this LES mess plays out the high pressure in the
northern plains will continue to descend southward and reach the
central plains by Saturday before shifting southeast toward the
gulf coast. As this high moves southeast toward FL, another
clipper system looks descend down from Alberta/Saskatchewan
toward the Great Lakes Region for Sunday into Monday. This would
be the system to keep an eye on for those that want more
widespread snow. There is some discrepancies in exact track,
but looking increasingly likely that we get another round of
snow for all of southern Wisconsin. Temperatures will be
slightly warmer during this time as we hit highs in the 20s,
but this is still well below freezing so confidence in this
being all snow is high. Heading into mid week there looks to
potentially be another low pressure system that could follow
right on the heals of the first if your hoping for snow the GFS
will bring you joy. Still lots of uncertainty here so proceed
with caution when looking at the extended models more to come as
we get closer.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 404 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period. The only
chance for MVFR ceilings will be if a stratocumulus deck
develops around day break this morning. If this scattered to
broken deck develops then ceilings would be around 2-3 kft and
will persist until late this afternoon.

Light west winds this morning will become more northwesterly by
late this morning into this afternoon. Northwest winds could be
a bit breezy by this afternoon with gust around 20 kts (~23
MPH). Northwest winds weaken and become light by tonight and
remain through Thursday afternoon.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 404 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Modest to brisk west northwest winds will prevail over Lake
Michigan at least into Thursday as weak low pressure remains over
the northern and lower Great Lakes with high pressure extending
from the northern Great Plains into the lower Missouri River
Valley. High pressure will strengthen into Friday as weak low
pressure progresses through the middle Mississippi Valley,
turning winds briefly northerly to even northeasterly. Winds shift
back to north-northwesterly and increase Friday night. Moderate
to heavy freezing spray will likely develop once again as
northwesterly winds continue through Saturday.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee