NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion
FXUS63 KMKX 201726
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1126 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Decreasing snow trends will continue into the afternoon so the
Winter Wx Advisory will be allowed to expire at noon.
- A Wind Advisory will continue until 3 PM CST for far srn WI
and Sauk and Columbia Counties.
- Occasional chances for flurries/light snow this weekend,
especially Saturday night into Sunday morning (10-40%
chances).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
This afternoon through Sunday:
Low pressure around 990 mb is currently from north central Lake
MI extending to Lake Huron with the upper low over lower MI.
Only areas of light snow remain which will continue to diminish
through the afternoon as frontogenesis weakens and cold
advection increases. The Winter Weather Advisory will expire at
noon, while a Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of
Srn WI until 3 PM CST. The greatest wind gusts are expected over
se WI during this time.
For tnt-Sat, the cloud cover will waver between partly cloudy
and mostly cloudy as a couple vorticity maximums traverse the
area, but dry conditions are forecast. A series of vorticity
maximums will then track from the ern Dakotas and wrn MN to ern
IA and across IL for Sat nt-Sun. However, the deeper saturation
on fcst soundings is over ern WI but overall lift is weak. Will
maintain 20-40% chances for light snow during this time. The
upper level pattern will support enhanced nly sfc winds and
cold advection for this same time period. High temps Sunday
should remain just below freezing.
Gehring
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Sunday night through Friday:
Sunday night into Monday high pressure will be moving east through
the Plains reaching the Atlantic by Tuesday night. As this high
pressure briefly moves through the Great Lakes Region, northerly
winds will return across Lake Michigan. The 850mb temp difference
(between that and the water) is around 14 to 16 degrees which is
at a good level for lake effect snow. Confidence is low on if
there will be enough of an easterly component to bring any lake
effect snow on shore at this point. So kept the low chance POPs
(10%) for the immediate lakeshore.
Additional chances for precipitation are expected in the extended as
a few clipper systems try to move through Tuesday and again on
Thursday. Model certainty is still moderate to low with both of
these systems which is apparent in the deterministic runs and when
looking at the 500mb cluster analysis. Tuesday's upper level
support is a shortwave trough, while Thursday looks to be a
slightly stronger trough. It is the trough on Thursday that shows
up on the cluster analysis with a monopole distribution. This just
points to uncertainty in strength/amplitude of the trough. This
provides further clarity on the deterministic models as well,
specifically why there is a broader area and longer duration
chance for precipitation. The timing between the shortwave on
Tuesday and Thursday is such that some of the deterministic
guidance is running the two together. This has creates long
running low chance POPs (10- 30%) in the extended. Hence the
uncertainty in the amplitude of the troughing Thursday as there
could be a phasing system issue. Its likely that this trend of
broad low chance POPS will continue until there is more agreement
in the models on whether there is phasing between the two or
actually a gap of dry weather on Wednesday. As for precip type,
Tuesday looks to be snow with forecast soundings having the
entire air column below freezing and much of the precipitation
occuring along and behind a cold front. Precipitation type becomes
a bit more of a wintry mix heading into Wednesday and Thursday as
guidance suggests warm air returning with some southerly winds
and pulling temperatures above freezing. There is a lot yet to be
ironed out here so this may yet change. As always stay up to date
with the forecast.
Patterson
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Cigs 1-2 kft this afternoon as colder and somewhat drier air
arrives. Light snow will continue to diminish this afternoon. Vsbys
with the snow will range from 2-6SM but remain fairly brief.
Brisk nwly winds will prevail this afternoon with wind gusts up
to 30-40 kt. Some decreasing cloud cover then expected tnt-Sat
but areas of MVFR Cigs could linger. Winds will quickly decrease
after sunset.
Gehring
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Low pressure around 29.2 inches over north central Lake Michigan
will track to Lake Huron by late this afternoon. West to northwest
gales will develop over the southern half of Lake Michigan today
as the strong low departs. A Gale Warning remains in effect into
this evening.
Northwest winds gradually subside late tonight as low pressure
weakens over Lake Huron. Northwest to north winds continue
through the weekend and into early next week as polar high
pressure builds southward towards the Dakotas and Minnesota.
These winds will become gusty Sunday into Monday morning as the
polar high draws closer, and could reach gale force Sunday night
into Monday morning. The high pressure area then moves across
Lake Michigan Monday night with light and variable winds
expected.
Gehring
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-
WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until noon Friday.
Wind Advisory...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 3
PM Friday.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 10 PM Friday.
Gale Warning...LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870 until 9 PM Friday.
Gale Warning...LMZ643 until 7 PM Friday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 11 AM Friday.
Gale Warning...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Friday.
&&
$$
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