NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 160006
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
606 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures remaining 10-20+ degrees above normal
  through Wednesday.

- Widespread round of rain (~50-80+% chances) expected Tuesday
  night through Wednesday morning. A few thunderstorms are
  possible later Tuesday night.

- More precip expected Thursday afternoon into Friday, with rain gradually
  switching over to all snow.

- Temperatures trending back toward normal by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 600 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Forecast remains on track with quiet conditions expected tonight
as weak high pressure continues to dominate. A weak low will
push through early Monday morning perhaps bring a chances for a
sprinkle toward central WI but in general chances are expected
to remain to the north of the CWA.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 100 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Another mild afternoon is in-progress across
southern Wisconsin under mostly sunny skies. A surface ridge
currently centered near the Mississippi River, will work into the
region later this afternoon & evening, allowing winds to become
light and variable. Winds will trend trend southwesterly after
midnight as the surface ridge continues east of the area. Low
pressure currently centered over Manitoba will progress into
northern Ontario tonight, ultimately approaching the Hudson Bay
Monday evening. The advancing low will pull an attendant cold front
into the upper Mississippi River Valley in the process, with the
boundary attempting to work into southern Wisconsin later Monday
afternoon and evening. The approaching boundary will maintain
southwesterly breezes through Monday, with resultant warm advection
translating to the mildest temperatures of the entire forecast
period for most. Said temps will likely challenge February 16
records at both MSN (57; 1981) & MKE (56; 1921).

Tonight: Broad warm advection will increase in the 925-700 mb layer
after midnight as low pressure shifts into northern Ontario. Could
see a few sprinkles within this warm advection belt during the
predawn hours in central/east-central Wisconsin, where isentropic
ascent affiliated with the temp advection will be a touch stronger.
Don't anticipate any appreciable accumulation in any sprinkles that
do occur.

Monday: Persistent southwesterly breezes will maintain warm air
advection through most/all of peak heating, leading to temperatures
anywhere between 10-20+ degrees above normal across southern
Wisconsin. If there's one catch to an otherwise slam dunk set up for
overperforming high temperatures, it would be if the approaching
surface front makes it into the region faster than current modeling
suggests. If a faster arrival time were to occur, temps would remain
a touch cooler than the current forecast, particularly over central
& east-central Wisconsin where the boundary would arrive first. Have
continued to trend the current forecast toward a later frontal
arrival/milder solution, but will be monitoring trends through this
evening.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 100 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

Synopsis: Originating from upper level energy currently off the
California coast, an upper trough remains is forecast to eject into
the Northern Plains on Tuesday, encouraging surface cyclogenesis
near the South Dakota-Nebraska border during the afternoon hours.
Development of the low will encourage increasing south-southeast
winds across southern Wisconsin, leading to cooler (but still above-
normal) temperatures relative to Monday afternoon. The surface low
will progress northeast into the western Great Lakes with its parent
upper trough Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing a round
of widespread rain to southern Wisconsin. A few embedded
thunderstorms are possible, particularly from late Tuesday night
into early morning hours Wednesday. Precip will gradually shut off
Wednesday afternoon as drier mid-level air works into the region.
Above normal temperatures will continue into Thursday, with a second
disturbance forecast to bring additional precipitation to the area
Thursday afternoon into Friday. Mild antecedent temps will result in
precip starting as all rain, with a transition to rain/snow mix and
eventually all snow anticipated Thursday night into Friday as the
system pivots east & pulls colder air into southern Wisconsin. Said
colder air will linger into next weekend, with daytime highs
trending back toward late February normals through Sunday.

Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon: Continue to anticipate
widespread rainfall across southern Wisconsin as the first of two
disturbances moves overhead. Global guidance has started to converge
on a surface low track through central or north-central Wisconsin,
which will place the area within low level warm advection through
the duration of the appreciable precip time frame. Thus anticipating
all rain across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.
Tied to a wing of pronounced warm advection in the 925-700 mb layer,
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning forecast soundings depict a
stout warm nose beneath cooling temperatures aloft, which could
translate to some elevated instability & embedded thunderstorm
potential during the ~10PM - 6AM time frame. Not currently
anticipating a widespread strong/severe threat in any embedded
thunder, though low freezing levels would support some brief hail
potential in any deeper/more robust cores. Thunder potential will
wane later Wednesday morning as the warm advection wing & any
elevated instability shift east of the region. Drier mid-level air
will shut precip off from southwest to northeast Wednesday
afternoon. If the dry air is slower to arrive, a few light snow
showers could mix in with concluding rainfall across the far north,
with negligible accumulation expected.

Thursday afternoon through Friday: Expect another batch of
widespread precip as a second disturbance moves across the region.
Mild conditions through Thursday afternoon should allow
precipitation to start as all rain, with a gradual transition to
rain/snow mix and eventually all snow occurring through Friday
morning as cold air wraps in from the northwest. Will need to
monitor for possible light snow accumulation in this system,
particularly to the north of I-94 and US-18 where p-type changeover
will occur earlier in the event.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 605 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period across southern WI
with light to calm winds tonight. There will be a very slight
chance for a stray shower toward central WI late tonight into
early Monday morning but overall is expected to remain dry.
Winds out of the WSW will pick up mid morning with a period of
LLWS possible for a few hours ahead of winds kicking up at the
surface. Otherwise there may be a chance for some fog Monday
night but that remains a bit more uncertain at this time.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 100 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

1010 mb low pressure is centered near northern Lake Michigan this
afternoon, resulting in weak west-southwest winds across the
majority of the waters. Currently near the Mississippi River,
1012 mb high pressure will approach Lake Michigan this
evening, allowing winds to become light and variable. 1006 mb
low pressure is forecast to form over the northern Mississippi
River Valley tonight, allowing winds to veer west-southwesterly
as the feature approaches during the predawn hours. Gusts
between 20-25 knots are possible, but are expected to remain
well below gale thresholds. Some patchy fog is possible over
southern Lake Michigan later tonight, though dense fog is not
anticipated at this time. Will continue to monitor trends
through this evening. Winds will weaken later Monday afternoon
into Monday night.

Stronger low pressure near 990 mb will form over the northern Great
Plains during the day on Tuesday, resulting in increasing east to
southeasterly winds over Lake Michigan. Winds will continue to
increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as the low approaches and
passes near or north of Lake Michigan, with wind directions veering
southwesterly over the southern waters while remaining east-
southeasterly further north. Confidence in a period of sustained
gale force gusts is beginning to increase over at least the northern
half of the open waters Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the need
for possible headlines being evaluated in coming forecast updates.
Low pressure will weaken & shift east of Lake Michigan later
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, resulting in a decrease
in wind gusts. Rain will accompany the passing low Tuesday night
through Wednesday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible south and
some rain-snow mix possible further north.

Continue to expect a second area of low pressure near or below 1000
mb to develop over the middle Mississippi River Valley Thursday
night, with the feature tracking over or just south of the southern
open waters closer to daybreak Friday. The development and passage
of the low will bring increasing northeast wind gusts Thursday night
through Friday morning. A few gale force gusts are possible.
Additional snow will accompany the passing low, along with some
light to moderate freezing spray possible late Thursday night
through early Friday. Winds will shift west-northwesterly Friday
afternoon through Saturday as low pressure shifts east and 1026 mb
high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. Winds will
remain northwesterly through Sunday as high pressure moves into the
upper Mississippi River Valley.

Southwest winds will become breezy in nearshore zones tonight
through Monday. A few gusts may approach Small Craft Advisory
thresholds during this time, but are expected to remain isolated and
brief enough to preclude the need for any headlines. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely late Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday as an area of low pressure crosses near or north of Lake
Michigan. A second area of low pressure remains on track to cross
near or just south of Lake Michigan late Thursday into Friday,
likely bringing a second period of Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Will evaluate the need for headlines in coming forecast updates.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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