NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 302357 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
657 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather under high pressure expected through the weekend
  and into next week. Fire weather concerns may increase into
  early next week.

- There is a high swim risk today for Ozaukee, Milwaukee,
  Racine and Kenosha County lakeshore areas due to persistent
  and elevated onshore winds.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 657 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Cirrus are prevalent across southern WI this evening.
Temperatures warmed to around 80 in southwest WI during the
afternoon but only topped out in the lower 60s near the
lakeshore (in the morning). The easterly winds are gradually
diminishing, but there are frequent enough gusts along the
lakeshore that support leaving the Beach Hazards Statement for
the High Swim Risk in effect until the expiration time of 9 PM.

With the dry air in place (dewpoints in the 30s for most of the
area), temperatures will drop quickly this evening. Lows will be
range from the mid 40s east central to the lower 50s southwest.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1200 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Today through Sunday night:

High pressure is sinking south down from James Bay this afternoon
into tonight and will settle across the Great Lakes Region this
weekend. As high pressure moves in, the breezy northeast winds will
weaken across the state. This weakening trend in the winds has
already begun for parts of southern Wisconsin as gusts are currently
sporadic. With the winds already weakening late this morning/early
this afternoon, the building waves that were expected across the
nearshore waters have under performed a bit. While certainly
still windy and wavey, the high swim risk may end a bit earlier
in the evening if winds decrease further.

Light and variable winds will set up across southern Wisconsin
Sunday as the center of the high pressure settles over Michigan.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer with highs in the mid 60s to
upper 70s (cooler near Lake Michigan and warmer inland). Under the
light winds, a lake breeze is expected to develop and move inland
during the afternoon/evening hours Sunday which will cool
temperatures off as it races inland. Mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies are expected.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1200 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Monday through Saturday:

Surface high pressure will retreat to the southeast heading into
Monday morning. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will move through the
500 mb flow aloft, wrapping around the trough in the northern Plains
Monday. As this shortwave moves north across IA, MN, and the
Dakotas, some upper level PVA looks to advance northeast across
Wisconsin. Meanwhile a weak backdoor cold front is expected to move
down from Canada. With high pressure lingering across the Great
Lakes Region, there will be a lack of moisture to pull from with
this transient lift. However, there are low chance POPs 10-20%
in far southwestern Wisconsin Monday. Any showers that does
manage to reach southern Wisconsin should dissipate quickly as
it enters into a drier more stable air mass.

Otherwise, high pressure will return shortly by Monday
afternoon/evening as a Hudson Bay high descends down to
Wisconsin. This area of high pressure will linger in the Great
Lakes Region through midweek before advecting southeast toward
the Mid Atlantic. The low fire weather concerns remain through
this period.

Looking further ahead toward the end of the week (Thursday &
Friday), guidance has the 500 mb pattern we have been stuck in
breaking down. With the ridge aloft diminishing and moving east, an
area of low pressure in the Plains should finally start to advance
eastward toward the Great Lakes. Timing and strength of the low
vary among guidance, but this looks to be the first decent
chance for Rain. Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 657 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR through the TAF period with high clouds overhead. Winds
will gradually decrease through the night and be lighter
tomorrow out of the southeast. Expect the lake breeze to
temporarily cause a brief uptick in the winds.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1200 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

High pressure around 30.2 inches centered over northern Ontario will
move south today and become centered over Michigan tonight into
Sunday. This area of high pressure will linger across the Great
Lakes Region into Wednesday. Northeast to east winds will remain
breezy behind a backdoor cold front today, weakening tonight and
becoming southeasterly. Weak southeast winds will become light and
variable Sunday night ahead of another backdoor cold front for
Monday. Northeast winds will become breezy Monday evening into
Monday night.

The high pressure over the Great Lakes will begin to exit southeast
toward the Mid Atlantic coast late Wednesday into Thursday as low
pressure around 30.0 inches develops in the Plains. Winds will turn
to the south to southwesterly and increase Thursday.

Breezy northeast winds today behind the backdoor cold front has
caused waves to build in the nearshore zones across Wisconsin.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to persist until
the onshore winds weaken later this evening into tonight.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 9
     PM Saturday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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