NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 260503
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1203 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers & storms (~30-60% chances) tonight, with an
  isolated shower or storm in the east early tomorrow afternoon.
  Can't rule out an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds or
  small hail tonight.

- Rain-free & pleasant conditions late week.

- Trending active this weekend into early next week, with
  multiple periods of showers and storms forecast.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1203 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Tonight through Wednesday:

Much of the initial round of showers has weakened late this
evening and stayed mainly north of the forecast area. The focus
is now on the second round of showers and storms approaching
from the northwest, as warm advection persists tonight ahead of
an approaching shortwave and weak front. This line of showers
and storms is expected to largely hold together as it moves
through the forecast area. This activity will likely arrive in
the northwest between 2 and 3 am, exiting the southeast between
7 and 9 am. Still not expecting severe weather based on current
shear, available instability, and ongoing upstream conditions.
Not out of the question for some small hail and brief gusty
winds, though.

The front and shortwave is expected to move through late
morning into early afternoon tomorrow. The better forcing,
moisture, and instability will be largely east of the forecast
area by mid- afternoon along with the resultant higher precip
chances. Could see an isolated shower or storm in the
east/southeast early afternoon as the front exits. With no big
push of cooler temps behind the front, highs into the low 80s
are likely tomorrow along with breezy west to northwest winds by
afternoon.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1203 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

High pressure will bring quiet weather to southern Wisconsin
Thursday and Friday, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies,
light winds, and near normal temperatures expected.
Clouds may increase on Saturday ahead of an approaching
shortwave, though precip chances are currently expected to hold
off until at least the evening hours.

A series of shortwaves will bring more active weather to the
forecast area Saturday night through at least early next week.
Increased moisture and instability during this period will also
contribute to higher chances for showers and storms.
Temperatures will be near to a bit above normal during this
period, with more humid conditions returning with dewpoints in
the 60s to around 70.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1203 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

A line of showers and storms continues to approach from the
northwest, as warm advection persists tonight ahead of an
approaching shortwave and weak front. This line of showers and
storms is expected to largely hold together as it moves through
the forecast area. This activity will likely arrive in the
northwest between 2 and 3 am, exiting the southeast between 7
and 9 am. Still not expecting severe weather based on current
shear, available instability, and ongoing upstream conditions.
Not out of the question for some small hail and brief gusty
winds, though.

Should see VFR conditions prevail most of the time tonight
through Wednesday. There is the possibility of some brief MVFR
ceilings later tonight into early Wed though as this system
moves through. Might see visibilities below 6SM in any heavier
showers/storms as well.

Light southerly winds tonight will increase a bit out of the
west to northwest during the day tomorrow behind the shortwave
and surface front. Winds will then become light for Wed
evening and overnight as high pressure builds in from the
northwest.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1203 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Breezy south winds will continue tonight as the pressure
gradient sharpens ahead of an approaching cold front and low
pressure of 29.7 inches just north of Lake Superior. These winds
will persist through tomorrow morning as the front slowly
approaches, with winds becoming more southwesterly with time.
The front should then pass Wednesday afternoon, with winds then
becoming northwesterly and lighter behind the front Wednesday
night.

The northwest winds will grow breezier for a bit on Thursday
ahead of another cold front dropping south over the lake, but
winds will then become lighter and northeasterly Thursday night
into Friday as high pressure of 30.2 inches moves into the upper
Great Lakes region.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.

LM...None.

&&

$$

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