NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 221829
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
129 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through late tonight
  for a High Swim Risk at beaches in Milwaukee, Racine, and
  Kenosha Counties. The beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee
  Counties have a high swim risk beginning this afternoon.

- Expect a gradual warming trend through the Memorial Day weekend.

- Areas of sprinkles are possible today followed by light rain
  chances or drizzle (15-30%) over se WI tonight. The very
  light rain or drizzle could linger into Saturday morning.
  Rain/storm chances of 20-50% are then forecast for Saturday
  afternoon/night and shower chances Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Tonight through Sunday night:

Tonight we will see a developing low pressure system in the low
to central MS valley swing NNE into the central GL region. The
vast majority of this system will be well to the east of us but
parts of far eastern central and southeast WI may get some
showers on the backside of the system as it pushes through.
Models largely suggest limited precip chances at this time and
latest trends have lowered PoPs (15-30%) but there is still
some PVA lingering in models and perhaps enough midlevel
moisture to bring a shower but lack of forcing seems to be the
primary issue for shower chances.

Into the day Saturday while largely expected to be quiet during
the afternoon and evening we will be watching for weak isolated
to scattered shower/storm chances associated with a departing
low in south central Canada bringing a front across the region.
The low levels will have enough moisture and the front may
provide just enough forcing to bring a few showers/weak storms.
very weak instability ahead of the front will allow for some
potential for some rumbles of thunder. The risk with this is
quite short lived as it will be directly connected with the
front. In addition the frontal feature will weak toward the
south and instability will fizzle as this front moves east into
the evening. Best chances for a rumbles of thunder look to be
western and more specifically west central WI but we cannot rule
out chances across all of southern WI.

Chances for rain showers will increase across southeast WI into
late Saturday night and early Sunday morning as a shortwave
embedded in the upper trough swings northward through the
western GL region connected with the moisture that will allow
for some precip. The best chances will be over the lake where
the better forcing is but the upper level moisture and forcing
are connected enough to where we could see precip as far west as
Madison. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder with this either
but chances generally appear limited at this time. This is
expected to push out by the afternoon with quiet conditions
expected the rest of the day as the upper level trough clears
out and drier air slides in in the low to midlevels. Will remain
dry across southern WI Sunday night.

Beach Hazards statement remains in effect for east winds
bringing wave heights to the 3-4 foot range though likely to
remain below 5 feet as winds and thus waves are not expected to
be as strong as previously expected. Beach Hazards will expand
by 4PM to Ozaukee and Shebougan counties as waves become a bit
higher further north along the nearshore of the lake. I have
shortened the backend as waves look likely to fall below 3ft
later tonight.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Monday through Friday:

Chances for precip at times through next week but chances look
weak overall given largely ridging aloft with limited shortwave
impacts seen at this time and for the most part high pressure
at the surface. Some frontal features will be possible but even
the low to mid level moisture field appears fairly dry but given
the warmer conditions expected for the week with some decent
surface moisture we cannot rule out some surface or near surface
based precip/storms. Friday will likely feature the best chances
as an interuption to the pattern but Monday will feature
shower/storm chances in parts of WI but it may end up being too
dry in the low levels for anything to really be expected to
occur Monday across southern WI.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Expect quiet conditions through the evening hours with CIGS in
the 3500-5000ft range but into the overnight hours as the low
approaches south central Great Lakes CIGS will continue to fall
with MVFR CIGS expected through much of Saturday morning
possibly lingering into the early afternoon. There may be a
period of IFR CIGS Saturday morning after daybreak for a few
hours primarily on southeast WI. VSBYS largely expected to
remain VFR but any showers that form to the east may allow for a
breif period of reduced VSBYs. Additional periods of borderline
MVFR/VFR CIGS Saturday afternoon and evening as a a front pushes
through with a slight chance for showers or even some weak
storms. Additional MVFR CIGS late Saturday night into Sunday
morning with some rain/storm chances. Otherwise largely
breezy east winds today, lighter into tonight with light west
winds behind the front Saturday night continuing through
Sunday.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 130 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

High pressure of 30.4 inches centered over eastern Canada and NE
US will gradually continue east while strengthening. Modest to
breezy east to northeast winds are expected into tonight, with
winds becoming northerly on Saturday as low pressure of 29.9
inches lifts northeast to eastern Great Lakes region. Southerly
winds are then expected to develop later Saturday night as the
higher pressure to the east pushes out and a weak front pulls
through. Winds will remain largely light and southerly through
Tuesday between broad high pressure to the east and brough low
pressure to the west.

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until only 9z now as
waves will remain in the 3-4 ft range but will definitely fall
below thresholds later tonight.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 AM
     Saturday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 4 AM Saturday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 4 AM Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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