NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 221043
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
543 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through Saturday
  afternoon for a High Swim Risk at beaches in Milwaukee,
  Racine, and Kenosha Counties. The beaches in Sheboygan and
  Ozaukee Counties have a high swim risk beginning this afternoon.

- Expect a gradual warming trend through the Memorial Day weekend.

- Areas of sprinkles are possible today followed by light rain
  chances or drizzle (20-30%) over se WI tonight. The very light
  rain or drizzle could linger into Saturday morning. Rain
  chances of 20-40% are then forecast for Saturday night and
  Sunday morning.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 543 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Weak vorticity maximums and mid level warm advection will
maintain cloud cover much of the day. Sprinkles or very light
showers will be possible as RAP and NAM forecast soundings show
very marginal elevated CAPE. Temps will be warmer today given
warm advection, but lake areas will still only rise into the
50s via ely winds.

The persistent ely winds and building waves will result in a
High Swim Risk for the Lake MI beaches today into Saturday. Thus
a Beach Hazard Statement continues.

For tnt, higher low to mid level RH will arrive from the south
as a shortwave trough and wave of low pressure tracks from the
lower MS river Valley into the nrn Ohio Valley. The nw periphery
of very light rain or drizzle may clip se WI (20-30%) and
possibly linger into Sat AM. Much of Sat will then be cloudy
especially over ern WI. High temps will range in the 50s at the
Lake MI shoreline to lower 70s over south central WI.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1142 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Tonight through Saturday:

Mid and high level clouds will persist tonight through Friday,
with dry easterly low level flow keeping it dry across southern
Wisconsin. Temps will remain a few degrees below normal through
tomorrow.

Surface low pressure is expected to approach the area from the
southwest Friday night, passing by to the southeast on Saturday.
The farther southeast low track has continued per the latest
models, with the bulk of the moisture and deeper expected to
miss the forecast area. The best chance for some light rain
showers Fri night into early Sat will be across the southeast
half of the forecast area. Despite the lingering clouds, temps
should return to around normal Saturday, except for cooler
conditions near the lake under onshore winds.

A high swim risk continues into Saturday afternoon for
Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha counties, expanding northward
through Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties Friday afternoon through
into Saturday afternoon. Life threatening waves and currents
are expected.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1142 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Saturday night through Thursday:

A shortwave may bring a few showers to southern Wisconsin
Saturday night into Sunday, with a rumble or two of thunder not
out of the question. Sunday night into Monday looks mainly dry
under surface high pressure and as upper level riding begins to
build in from the west. Still a small chance though that an
area of showers/storms comes through the top of the ridge on
Monday. Confidence is on the lower end for any precip, so kept
the forecast dry for now. Above normal temps are expected for
Memorial Day along with somewhat higher dewpoints as well.

Warm temps and higher dewpoints will persist into mid-week,
with some instability suggesting the potential for more
shower/storm chances if a wave or two pushes through the area.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 543 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions today into this evening. Mid level clouds will be
present with areas of sprinkles. MVFR Cigs will then overspread
much of srn WI from se WI toward south central WI late tonight
and Sat AM. Areas of very light rain and drizzle will be
possible. Areas of Cigs below 1 kft over se WI for Sat AM.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1142 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

High pressure of 30.4 inches centered over the upper Great Lakes
will gradually shift eastward through the end of the week.
Persistent east to northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected
through Friday, with winds becoming northerly on Saturday as low
pressure of 29.9 inches lifts northeast to western Lake Erie.
Winds should increase a bit Friday afternoon into Saturday, though
winds will remain below gale force. Southerly winds are then
expected to develop early next week.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist south of North
Point Light through tonight, gradually expanding northward to
Sheboygan Friday. The advisory conditions will the continue
into Saturday afternoon.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...Wiz060-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 PM
     Saturday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 PM Friday to 4 PM
     Saturday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...4 PM Friday to 4 PM Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644 until 4 PM Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Saturday.

&&

$$

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