NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 282114
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
314 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 315 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021)

Tonight through Monday night:

The general weather pattern remains fairly stagnant with large
scale ridging to the west and troughing to the east. This has made
the region susceptible to clippers. While tonight will be dry
clouds will be pushing in ahead of another clipper expected Monday
during the day. This will be primarily forced from an upper level
shortwave with plenty of PVA but also forcing in the low and mid
levels. This will be a combination of strong warm advection as
well as significant frontogenesis that will be associated with
plenty of moisture, which is likely why models continue to
increase chance for precip.

As clippers usually are, this will be a quick hitting system and
soundings suggest most of the column will remain below freezing
with a saturated DGZ for the most part. At this point it appears
most areas may see a chance for snow but the best chance for the
CWA will be in the east central parts of Wisconsin in the Fond du
Lac and Sheboygan region. Generally accumulations are expected to
be minor but it could bring limited visibilities for a period. To
the south we could see some mixing in of some rain and we cannot
rule out some freezing drizzle on the back end of the system as we
may lose our ice in the DGZ but it looks unlikely at this point.

Into tonight, the surface low will pass through and to the east
with potentially some breezy conditions overnight but otherwise
remaining quiet.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 315 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021)

Tuesday through Sunday:

Through much of the day Tuesday we will see weak high pressure
push in behind the exiting low. However, thereafter models really
start to diverge on solutions. Although uncertainty increases
generally models suggests another clipper pushing through the
Great Lakes region. Some models suggest this could clip southern
Wisconsin though many of them have the system tracking to the
north. This will give us a slight chance for precip likely in the
form of rain given the much warmer temperatures expected in the
lower levels to the surface.

Thursday will see models diverge further with the pattern
remaining the same suggestive of a few more clipper type systems.
Models suggest potential for Friday into Saturday and another into
Sunday and Monday. However, It is very difficult to dial in on any
particular systems or impacts but expect chances for precip
throughout the week, but at this point nothing significant.
It is also worth noting that there looks like there could be a
pattern shift by the end of the week into early next week.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 315 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021)

Mostly clear skies today will bring VFR conditions through
tonight. Breezy conditions will die down tonight but into tomorrow
we will see a brief period of MVFR CIGS push in with the next
system moving in. While impacts are not expected to last more than
a few hours, low CIGS and visibility concerns with some snow,
impacts could be significant over that short period. Areas further
south could see some rain mixing in and we cannot rule out some
freezing drizzle on the back end though that looks unlikely.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 315 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021)

Low pressure will move the eastern Great Lakes into the northeast
US tonight. Gusty winds today will gradually weaken tonight with
the current Small Craft Advisory expected to end at 0z. Winds
will then increase again out of the southwest Monday into Monday
night in association with another low pushing in. This will move
east across the western Great Lakes region Monday afternoon and
evening, shifting winds to the northwest behind it later Monday
night into Tuesday with some gustiness. This will likely require a
Small Craft Advisory for a period with a few gale force gusts
possible across the southern open waters. A stronger low moving
to the north of the region Wednesday into Thursday should bring
another round of gusty winds to Lake Michigan. This may require
another Small Craft Advisory though no gales are expected across
the lake.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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