NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 162152
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
352 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A broken line of snow showers will progress west to east this
  evening, bringing gusty winds, quick, localized drops in
  visibility, and the potential for roads to become quickly snow
  covered and frozen as temperatures drop. A snow squall is not
  out of the question in far southwestern Wisconsin.

- Lighter, consistent snow is then expected through later
  tonight and potentially into Saturday morning. Less than an
  inch of accumulations is expected. A stronger wave of snow
  Saturday will bring an additional inch or two.

- A more active pattern sets up this weekend into next week,
  with multiple clippers bringing an inch to three inches of
  snow each on Sunday, Tuesday night into Wednesday, and on
  Friday.

- Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend through
  the early part of next week. The coldest temperatures and wind
  chills are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Cold Weather
  Advisory criteria (20 degrees below zero) may be met or
  exceeded Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 353 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

A broken line of snow showers has developed along a line from La
Crosse to Dubuque, and will rapidly move eastward through this
evening. 40 to 60 J/kg of potential instability has worked its
way into southwest Wisconsin this evening within the warm sector
of the low (temperatures have risen into the mid-30s this
afternoon). A trigger for this instability is available upstream
in the form of an arctic front currently draped corresponding
to the broken line of snow showers. A northwesterly 925-850 mb
jet is nosing its way through Iowa into northwestern Illinois as
well, bringing potential for gusts of 35 to 45 mph along the
WI/IL border as these snow showers develop. However, the main
core of that wind punch is expected to remain to the south and
gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected across far southern
Wisconsin.

All of these ingredients together lends credence to the
potential for these snow showers to become locally intense into
the evening rush hour. Visibilities as low as 1 mile have been
observed in far southwestern Wisconsin, and visibilities as low
as 1/2 mile are expected to develop within the most intense
showers. As the showers are expected to remain scattered across
southern Wisconsin, impacts will be localized, but can expect
roads under these showers to quickly become snow covered as
temperatures rapidly drop below freezing, with lowered
visibilities from both snowfall and gusty winds creating
additional hazards to travelers. The best chances for the most
intensive activity are from a line from Wisconsin Dells to
Madison to Janesville south and westward, although cannot rule
out pulsy snow showers through the remainder of the I-94
corridor.

After the more intense snow showers end across the region this
evening and the Arctic front comes through, expecting a broad
area of lift to work its way into southern Wisconsin. This will
bring additional light snow to the region throughout the
overnight hours, with perhaps a few breaks at times. However,
currently monitoring radar upstream shows light snow as far
upstream as eastern North Dakota, so confidence is relatively
high in continuing snowfall throughout the overnight hours.
Still, with a much drier and colder airmass (lows in the teens
and wind chills in the single digits below zero) in play,
expecting only a half inch to an inch of accumulations.

Saturday, the final swath of wrap-around precipitation from the
occluded low to the northeast pushes slowly through southern
Wisconsin. A few models (namely the NAM12k and HRRR) are
indicating potential for a localized, more intense band of
snowfall capable of producing around 3 inches of snow, but in
general expecting accumulations of 1-2 inches through the day
Saturday into Saturday evening before snow tapers off
completely. With highs in the upper teens to low 20s, expecting
this snow to be dry, and gusty winds around 25 mph may creating
blowing snow concerns as it falls as well.

Finally, Saturday night spells a end to the snow system as the
low lifts northeastward into Canada and a dry Arctic high nudges
into the region. Expecting low temperatures Saturday night to
fall quickly into the single digits, with wind chills in the
negative single digits. Winds will become lighter overnight, but
will remain around 10 mph, so wind chills will certainly remain
a concern.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 353 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Clippers, Clippers and more clippers. In one word, that is what
we can expect for Wisconsin through the extended forecast. The
first of these clippers looks to approach and move through
Wisconsin Sunday into Monday morning. Guidance has some good
consensus around 500 mb among the global models with the GFS
being the one slight outlier as its slightly deeper and further
south. Even with this slight discrepancy, light snow showers are
expected. Snow showers are likely to start along some mid level
WAA in the late morning to early afternoon then continue along a
cold front into the late evening (potentially lingering into the
overnight hours in the east). Snow accumulations are also expected
to be light. Temperatures will drop quickly behind this cold
front for Sunday night as arctic air rushes into southern
Wisconsin. Overnight lows are expected to fall below zero inland
with lakeshore areas at or just above 0 degrees. As temperatures
fall, west to northwest winds will become breezy which will drop
winds chills to around -20 to -25 (Cold Weather Advisory
Criteria). With the quickly dropping temps, increasing winds and
snow showers, there could be some dropping visibilites so will
have to keep an eye on this system for impacts to travel. Overall
a cold, windy and snowy Sunday.

As the low exits to the east Sunday night, sfc high pressure will
begin to move into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region.
This area of high pressure will be quick moving but will keep the
arctic air streaming in. Day time highs will be in the single
digits Monday with overnight lows falling below zero inland and
at or near zero along the lakeshore. The gusty northwest winds
will remain throughout the day and into Tuesday morning which will
keep wind chills low around negative 20 to 25. If trends continue
a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed. There will be broad
cyclonic flow aloft (500mb) so can't rule out very light flurries
coming out of any clouds that develop. Little to no accumulations
are expected with any very light snowfall.

Heading into Tuesday, we will get our next clipper approaching.
Temperatures should rebound a bit into the teens and winds turn
southerly during the day. There are more uncertainties with exact
timing, location and strength of the low, but guidance does
suggest more snow showers. These showers should develop along a
swath WAA and could swing in location from northern to southern
Wisconsin based on the current guidance. Best timing looks to be
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Looking further beyond this there
looks to be yet another (say it with me) clipper. Guidance varies
wildly for Friday on this so just know that low chance POPs
around 20% will linger through the extended.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 353 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

MVFR to even VFR ceilings will lower to 1000-1500 ft as snow
showers move west to east tonight along an Arctic front.
Expecting a few of these showers to become locally intense, with
visibilities briefly as low as 1/2 to 1 SM and westerly wind
gusts up to 30 kt. However, these are expected to be scattered
in nature and individual terminals may not be impacted.
Outside of the locally intense snow showers, light, more steady
snow is expected to work in from northwest to southeast this
evening into tonight, with visibilities and ceilings at
1000-2000 ft. This activity may continue throughout the
overnight hours into Saturday, although a few brief periods of
snowlessness are possible. Saturday mid-morning to evening, a
moderate band of snow may develop across the region, with 1-2
inches expected. Localized amounts up to 3 inches are possible.
Snow will taper off Saturday evening.

Southwesterly winds will shift to become west-northwesterly this
evening, continuing to gust near 20 kt. Northwest winds with
gusts near 20 kt will continue through Saturday midday, before
gusts diminish. However, sustained winds of 10 to 15 kt will
linger into Sunday night.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 353 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Breezy southwest winds continue as low pressure over western
Ontario swings into northern Lake Michigan this evening. The low
will move into northern Lake Huron tonight and continue into
eastern Ontario by Saturday. As this low moves through a cold
front will move across the lake turning winds to the west. West
to northwest winds will persist through Saturday night.

Another low pressure system will track from Alberta into Lake
Superior Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds will turn to
southwesterly and increase ahead of this system. A few gusts
will approach Gales Sunday afternoon and evening. A cold front
will move across the lake late Sunday evening causing winds to
further increase and turn to westerly. Gales will become
increasing likely Sunday night into Monday.

As the low moves east into eastern Ontario Monday, strong northwest
to west winds are expected with building waves. The pressure
gradient will further tighten as a high follows on the heels of
the exiting low. Gales are likely during this time. Freezing
Spray will also be expected as arctic air settles over the Great
Lakes Region. Some heavy freezing spray is possible Sunday
night into Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday winds will begin to diminish and turn to
southwesterly ahead of another low pressure system tracking
from Alberta towards the Great Lakes.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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