NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 260406 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1006 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of central
  and east central Wisconsin for Wednesday. Gusty winds coupled
  with light snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected
  in the Advisory area, leading to blowing and drifting snow.
  Slick spots and pockets of reduced visibility may cause
  impacts to holiday travel.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire area on Wednesday.
  Gusts to 50 MPH are expected.

- Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow for
  this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The strong cold front with the associated rain is shifting east
northeast through the area, and should move out of the area in
the next one to two hours or so. Gusty winds to 40 MPH may occur
with this area of rain.

Winds are shifting to the west southwest behind the front,
becoming gusty as the leading edge of the strong cold air
advection moves into the area. There should be a lull in the
precipitation for a time into the overnight hours, before the
next area of mainly snow moves in toward daybreak with the 500
mb closed low and associated differential CVA. There may be some
700 to 500 mb frontogenesis response also helping to generate
the snow.

This should move east into the area after 3 AM to 4 AM CST
Wednesday, spreading east quickly by 6 AM to 7 AM CST. The snow
should be fluffy and powdery, as temperatures continue to drop
and snow to liquid ratios increase. This, combined with the
strong west to northwest winds gusting to 45 to 50 MPH, should
bring the risk for blowing snow and reduced visibility to a mile
or two, perhaps lower in northern parts of the area where the
higher amounts are expected. This will impact holiday travel on
Wednesday.

Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches may occur in the northern
counties, though most of this should blow around with the
strong winds and powdery nature of the snow. Vehicles on north
to south roads may face buffeting due to the winds.

Thus, the Winter Weather Advisory continues for Marquette,
Green Lake, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Dodge, Washington and
Ozaukee Counties from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday. The Wind
Advisory remains in effect for the entire area during this time
as well.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 310 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Low clouds, mostly dry weather, and light / variable winds
through the remainder of this afternoon.

A cold front arrives late this evening (7-10 PM CST Madison and
Janesville, 9 PM - 12 AM for Milwaukee / Sheboygan) delivering
light rain showers and breezy southwest winds. A transition from
rain to snow gradually unfolds well behind the cold front (after
Midnight tonight), with predominantly just snow falling from
daybreak Wednesday onwards. West to northwest winds become
extremely gusty through the daytime hours of Wednesday (entire
region), easily gusting to 45 MPH, with a few stronger gusts
possible. Light powdery snowfall continues, amounting to a
dusting of accumulation in most areas, with 1 to 3 inch
accumulations possible towards portions of central and east-
central WI (for which a Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued). Though snow accumulations in this range are typically
considered to be below Advisory criteria, the wind gusts and
powdery texture to the snow could easily lead to some blowing
and drifting, with pockets of reduced visibility and treacherous
travel conditions.

The end time for the Advisory is currently 6 PM CST Wednesday,
on account of decreasing wind gusts and a west to east cutoff of
snowfall (though this could be adjusted if needed). Dry weather
and breezy northwest winds then continue Wednesday night, with
temperatures plummeting to the low 20s.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 310 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

Winds will come down from Wednesday as the pressure gradient
weakens a bit but lingering breezy winds from the departing
surface low and chilly temperatures will likely bring wind chills
as low as the mid single digits across southern WI. Winds will
decrease even further Thursday night as higher pressure nudges
into the region. Friday morning will actually be chillier with
lows in the mid to upper teens so despite lower winds wind chills
are still expected to be in the mid to upper single digits.
Otherwise Thursday and Friday are largely expected to be quiet
weather wise.

Then our attention turns toward the weekend system that has
certainly come into focus a bit better though still containing
a large degree of uncertainty. The uncertainty with this next
system primarily involves the track and the QPF within the system.
These are all likely being heavily influenced by the phasing of
this system portrayed in the models. While each model shows
something similar they all show differences in the lead up to the
event. This is particularly the case with the trough as there
appears to be 2 or even 3 pieces of embedded shortwave energy that
generally combine as the trough swings through our region. On
piece of energy lee of the Rockies in the panhandle region, a
piece in the Dakotas, and perhaps another trailing piece from
Alberta. The manner in which these interact will greatly determine
what we should expect to receive from this system.

Trends have very much begun to suggest snow is likely with this
event, the question becomes exactly how much and intense snowfall
gets. A far enough north track of the low could actually yield
rain for a period, whereas a further south track could lead to
largely snow but perhaps not higher end snowfall amounts.
Somewhere in between is the 'Goldilocks zone' where if the low
track is right we could see some higher snow amounts where there
would be increased concerns for strong Fgen with strong influence
from midlevel WAA, upper level PVA, perhaps some jet coupling, and
impacts from the surface low and corresponding fronts. In the
right scenario we also likely see some lake enhancement for this
event as well

Currently this event has trended toward a Saturday afternoon/
evening period for the greatest period of snow potential (though
this can still change). While remaining uncertain there is
increasing concern for accumulating and impactful snow as models
have at least dialed in some of those previous uncertainties.

Into Sunday, there may be lingering snow chances on the backside
of the low as higher pressure starts to build in behind the
departing low. Into early next week things trend drier as higher
pressure seems to dominate the low levels in various forms. There
is some uncertainty given that the upper trough will remain in the
region but limited energy and associated moisture may end up
keeping things dry overall.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The strong cold front with the associated rain is shifting east
northeast through the area, and should move out of the area in
the next one to two hours or so. Gusty winds to 35 knots may
occur with this area of rain. Ceilings may briefly rise to VFR
levels, as a dry slot works through the area. More MVFR to IFR
ceilings should work into the area overnight.

Winds are shifting to the west southwest behind the front,
becoming gusty as the leading edge of the colder air moves into
the area. There should be a lull in the precipitation for a
time into the overnight hours, before the next area of mainly
snow moves in toward daybreak.

This snow should move east into the area after 09Z to 10Z
Wednesday, spreading east quickly by 12Z to 13Z. General
visibility should be 2 to 5 miles with the snow. It should be
fluffy and powdery, as temperatures continue to drop. This,
combined with the strong west to northwest winds gusting to 35
to 42 knots, should bring the risk for blowing snow and reduced
visibility. It may be reduced to a mile or two, perhaps lower
toward Sheboygan where the higher amounts are expected. Will
wait to see how this trends later on before bringing lower
values into area TAFs.

Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches may occur in the northern
parts of the area, with rates around one quarter inch per hour.
Most of the powdery snow should blow around with the strong
winds. Areas to the south may see amounts around or under one
inch, again most of it blowing around. The snow should end by
early Wednesday evening, with continued strong northwest winds
overnight into Thursday.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Low pressure around 29.5 inches is expected to cross the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan overnight into Wednesday, deepening to
around 29.3 inches. A cold front extending south of the low is
expected to cross Lake Michigan tonight, turning winds southwest
and increasing toward daybreak on Wednesday. Gusty west
southwest winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels for a
short time overnight for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan.

Strong west to northwest winds will develop over the lake
Wednesday. Expecting storm force gusts for the southern two
thirds of the lake, where a Storm Warning is in effect. Gale
force gusts are expected for the northern one third, where a
Gale Warning is in effect. The strongest winds and highest waves
should be on the east side of the lake.

The strong winds veer northwest later Wednesday and linger
through Thursday night. Winds are expected to decrease below
storm force by daybreak Thursday, but Gale Warnings remain in
effect Thursday into Thursday night, as strong northwest winds
continue. Winds gradually subside into Friday, as high pressure
around 30.4 inches builds into the region from the west.

Wagner/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 AM
     Wednesday to 6 PM Wednesday.

     Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060...6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878...midnight Thursday to midnight Friday.

     Storm Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Wednesday to midnight Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...3 PM Wednesday to
     3 AM Friday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM Wednesday to
     6 PM Thursday.

&&

$$

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