NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 191202
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
702 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Wisconsin DNR has issued an Air Quality Advisory for all
  of Wisconsin into Monday morning, as wildfire smoke moves
  southward into the area tonight and lingers, contributing to
  lower visibilities and unhealthy air quality.

- Severe storms are possible mainly Monday afternoon and
  evening. All severe hazards are possible during this time.
  There is some uncertainty with a possible first round of
  storms may affect the airmass recovery for a potential second
  round.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 702 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Smoke will be the name of the game today. With the light and
variable winds as high pressure moves through, will prevent the
smoke from moving much. Current conditions across southern
Wisconsin range from very unhealthy to unhealthy for all groups.
This is expected to impact visibilities across southern
Wisconsin today, which for many will just be the hazy skies. Did
lower the high temperatures a bit today given the hazy skies,
but otherwise no major changes for the rest of the day.

Looking further ahead to Monday CAMs are starting to come into a
bit more alignment this morning with a large majority of them no
longer trying to run showers into a ridge to the south. While
not all of them are on board with this solution, it does align
better with the reality that rain/storms ridge of the top of a
ridge and typically dont dive right into them. This is building
confidence a bit more on storm mode and timing, but looking to
see how this trend continues with the 12Z guidance.

With wave diminishing across the nearshore waters under the
light and variable winds, the Beach Hazard Statement and Small
Craft Advisory are set to expire this morning.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Current Overnight through Sunday:

Smoke continues to push inland over southern Wisconsin tonight.
The densest smoke is located northeast of a line from Kenosha
to Wisconsin Dells. As the overnight hours progress, the smoke
should push all the way west to the Mississippi River Valley and
maintain its density as it gets trapped in subsidence from a
high pressure center moving over the state. This will cause the
smoke to persist through Sunday until winds come around to South
and southwesterly as the high pressure center exits east
towards the lower Great Lakes region late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. In the meantime, expect visibility restrictions
and haziness from the smoke as well as unhealthy AQI over the
region. An air quality advisory is out until noon Monday.

Otherwise lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to low 60s with
highs in the low to mid 80s.

A Beach Hazard Statement continues for all lakeshore counties
except Sheboygan. Swimming is not advised at Lake Michigan
beaches until the hazard ends at 7am.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Monday through Friday:

There remains a significant amount of uncertainty regarding the
severe weather threat for Monday as CAMs that are within range
show significant west to east spread regarding where
thunderstorms will track through Wisconsin and the upper
Mississippi River Valley region. However, one thing to note is
that there will be a strong aloft ridge over Iowa that will
effectively work to cap thunderstorm activity. CAMs have
repeatedly forecasted thunderstorms to run into ridges this
summer only for these storms to die or ride the ridge in
reality. Conceptual models suggest that these thunderstorms
should ride the edge of the ridge and track into southern
Wisconsin rather than diving south into Iowa and the cap as some
models forecast. The 00z HRRR captures this well, tracking
thunderstorms along the ridge's edge into southern Wisconsin.
To some extent the RRFS also has this as well. If these
solutions were to verify, storms would hold off until late
afternoon and evening and the potential for supercells/MCS would
occur. Hodographs look straight, which would favor hail. the
environmental kinematics show great venting and wind speed aloft
which would suggest that any MCS that rolls through would be
forward propagating and capable of high winds. QLCS tornadoes
also cant be ruled out, given that 0 to 3km shear will be
greater than 30 knots in magnitude. Still, some of the far
Western solutions cant be completely ruled out. If this
solution were to be verified, storms would propagate SE in
either Iowa or along the Mississippi River Valley, leaving much
of southern Wisconsin under stratiform rain Monday. This would
dampen a severe weather threat. Model trends will be watched
through Sunday for better agreement. Beyond, quiet weather
returns as a Canadian high pressure sinks south into the upper
Great Lakes region midweek. Temperatures also look cooler, with
highs on Tuesday in the low 80s, upper 70s on Wednesday, and
low 80s on Thursday. Conditions will remain dry during this
time. Slight chances for thunderstorms may return on Friday as a
warm front lifts NE over the region.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 702 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Under the light and variable winds today, smoke is expected to
linger across the state. Lower visibilites are expected ranging
from roughly 1 1/2 SM at its worst to 4SM at the best. The
pockets of lower visibilities could shift a bit at times
throughout the day. With the best opportunity for improvement
coming from any diurnal mixing by mid afternoon. Confidence on
conditions improving in any meaningful way are low until winds
increase out of the south to southwest Monday morning.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Wildfire smoke has returned to Lake Michigan this evening and may
become dense once again. The smoke is expected to reduce
visibility to 1 nautical mile at times, and a Marine Dense Smoke
Advisory is in effect across Lake Michigan into early Monday
morning.

Gusty northwest winds have come around to north to northeast
and will quickly taper off over the next few hours, as high
pressure moves over the northern Great Lakes. Northeast to
light and variable winds are then expected Sunday into Sunday
night.

Gusty south to southwest winds may then develop Monday into
Monday night, with gusty west to northwest winds possible into
the middle of next week. A few southerly gales are possible
Monday afternoon and evening, with a few northwest gales possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday.CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 7
     AM Sunday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Sunday.

&&

$$

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