NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion
FXUS63 KMKX 260916
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
316 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very cold wind chills between 20 and 25 below zero expected
across southern Wisconsin through this morning. Cold Weather
Advisory in effect until 12 PM CST.
- Cold wind chills below zero will prevail through much of the
week and remain above advisory criteria.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 316AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Today through Tuesday night:
A cold and cloudy early morning for southern Wisconsin. An upper
level trough is swinging through the state this morning and
providing just enough lift to have a scattered to broken deck of
clouds through southern Wisconsin. As the trough swings through
boundary layer winds will become breezy north to northwest winds.
CAA will be under way as these winds become breezy with temperatures
falling to 0 to -10 degrees. With wind gusts around 20 MPH, wind
chills will fall to -20 to -25 from midnight to noon Monday. A Cold
Weather Advisory is in effect for all of southern Wisconsin during
this time.
Monday afternoon with the first trough now to the east, a second
upper level trough and associated surface low will approach the
state from central Saskatchewan. Winds will turn to southwesterly
and WAA will kick in which will pull temperatures and wind chills
up. Despite the increasing temps and wind chills, sfc winds will
increase with gusts of 20 to 30 MPH expected. The WAA will be quick
and fairly weak so daytime highs will only climb into the upper
single digits. The southwest winds will bring some moisture return
to the state as well which will prep the area for some flurries
later Monday night into Tuesday.
As the surface low in Saskatchewan moves southeast into
southern Ontario and Lake Superior, a cold front will move
across the state late Monday into early Tuesday morning.
Frontogenesis will be good along the front with good upper
level PVA. Forcing will be great with LLJ nosing into the state
as well. The one caveat during this time is the lacking
moisture and very short duration of lift, Fgen, and forcing.
Flurries will be possible across central and eastern Wisconsin
for an hour or two early Tuesday morning where mid level
moisture is at its highest. POP chances are low around 10-20%.
Can't rule out a few flakes making it to the ground across
southeastern and south central Wisconsin, but confidence is low.
For those that do get snow, only a dusting is expected at most.
Behind the front Tuesday, weak cold air advection and clearing skies
are expected. Daytime highs will climb into the double digits for
the first time in what feels like a week (10 to 14 degrees). The
northwest to west winds will decrease heading into Tuesday night
with dry conditions and temperatures in around 0 to -4 degrees
expected overnight.
Patterson
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 316AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Wednesday through Sunday:
The upper level cyclonic flow with troughs and shortwaves rotating
around southern Canada and the New England states will remain
through the work week. The next low chance for precip looks to still
be Wednesday. Chances are very low around 10% for southern
Wisconsin. A 500mb shortwave trough and mid level trough will swing
through the northern Great Lakes Region with a LLJ stretching from
western MN to northern IL. The weak upper level lift and convergence
on the leading edge of the LLJ will provide some good forcing but
location of the forcing and meager available moisture will counter
any forcing. Very light snow and flurries will be possible with
little to no accumulations. Southwestern and far southern Wisconsin
will be the most likely (again 10% chance) areas for any precip as
the better mid level forcing will be to our south.
Largely dry weather will persist through Saturday across southern
Wisconsin with sfc high pressure and cyclonic flow aloft. There will
be some low chance POPs (10-20% or less) that occasionally move
inland off lake Michigan Thursday through Saturday as northwest to
north wind set up across Lake Michigan. Not anticipating any
impactful lake effect snow (or really much of anything), but these
POPs are due to the few models that occasionally have northeast
winds and larger resolutions of the long range models. So if your
hoping for more snow, I wouldn't put to much faith in this for
the extended forecast.
Only other item worth mentioning for the extended will be the very
slow climb out of the single digits into the 20s for the weekend.
Highs in the teens and lows near or below zero will persist
through Friday. Saturday will bring our first chance for highs
to reach the 20s and overnight lows to be above zero across
southern Wisconsin.
Patterson
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 316AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
VFR conditions will persist through roughly midnight tonight.
A broken to overcast mid level cloud deck will remain across
east central and southeastern Wisconsin until roughly sunrise
before diminishing. Clear skies are expected across central and
western Wisconsin. Once the clouds have dissipated clear skies
are expected through this afternoon. This evening into tonight
mid to upper level clouds will return ahead of an approaching
cold front. Flurries will be possible along this frontal
boundary late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Snow flurries
will be battling dry air and should only last a couple hours at
most. East central and southeastern Wisconsin will have the best
potential for any of these flurries to reach the ground. These
areas will also have a potential for MVFR ceilings around 3 kft.
Everywhere else should remain VFR with ceilings around 4 to 6
kft or higher. A dusting of snow will be possible. Behind the
front Tuesday morning, cloudy skies are expected.
Northwest winds this morning will shift to the west to southwest
by this afternoon and will be breezy with gusts of 20 MPH
expected. Southwest winds will increase with gusts to 30 MPH
just ahead of the front this evening. Breezy northwest winds are
expected behind the front Tuesday.
Patterson
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 316AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Elevated waves and cold temperatures will support moderate to
heavy freezing spray through Tuesday afternoon. A Heavy Freezing
Spray Warning is in effect until 6 PM CST Tuesday. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect through 6 PM CST Tuesday as well due to
the breezy winds and building waves.
Breezy northwest winds over the open waters will be is expected early
this morning into the afternoon hours. These breezy winds will be
caused by the tight pressure gradient between a 30.7 inch high
moving south through the Central Plains and a 29.5 inch low
moving east across the Mid Atlantic states. Gusts of 25 to 30
knots will be possible.
Tonight a 30.5 inch high pressure will build into the Ohio River
Valley as 29.8 inch low pressure attempts to form over Lake
Superior, resulting in a west- southwest wind shift across Lake
Michigan. Winds will become gusty at times tonight into Tuesday
morning, when a few gales are possible over the southern third of
the open waters. While gales are not expected to be widespread at
this time, trends will continue to be monitored for potential
headlines in coming forecasts.
Winds will trend west-northwesterly Tuesday afternoon and night as
30.4 inch high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains.
Winds will gradually taper Wednesday through Thursday as said area
of high pressure moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley.
Patterson
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until
noon Monday.
LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
until 6 PM Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
Tuesday.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee