NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 291901
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
201 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather under high pressure expected through the weekend
  and into next week. Fire weather concerns may increase into
  early next week.

- There is a high swim risk Saturday for Ozaukee, Milwaukee,
  Racine and Kenosha County lakeshore areas due to persistent
  and elevated onshore winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 201 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Tonight through Monday:

High pressure will dominate the Upper Great Lakes through the
middle of next week. Mostly sunny skies and dry weather will
prevail. A lake breeze is expected each day, so temperatures
near the lakeshore will be much cooler than inland areas.

A weak shortwave trough will drop down through Lower Michigan
overnight and push a cold front through eastern WI and
eventually into western WI by mid Saturday morning. The surface
winds will be elevated, in the 10 to 20 mph range, and those
persistent onshore winds near Lake Michigan will create high
waves (3 to 5 feet) and therefore a high swim risk. A Beach
Hazards Statement is in effect for all of Saturday from 7 AM
through 9 PM. The brisk easterly winds will keep temperatures
much cooler than today, with highs ranging from the lower 60s
at the lakeshore to the mid/upper 70s well inland.

Lighter winds will return for Sunday, although the lakeshore
will still be chilly in the lower 60s. There could be one
"gotcha" on Sunday late afternoon and evening if an organized
storm complex gets going in the Upper Midwest and then tracks
all the way into southern WI before completely dissipating. This
would bring clouds and a chance of showers. Still not enough
confidence to include this in the forecast right now.

Monday will bring a similar story, although inland temps will
creep up a bit more, back into the lower 80s. Again, some clouds
and a few showers cannot be ruled out from an upstream system,
but the chance seems very low.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 201 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Tuesday through Friday:

High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will very slowly inch
eastward and the southerly return flow will bring increasing
temps all week, especially for inland areas. Highs will be in
the mid 80s Wed and upper 80s Thu for all but the lakeshore. The
precip forecast will remain dry until Thursday. This is when
there is an increasing chance for an upstream thunderstorm
complex to make it into WI during the late afternoon and evening
hours. The actual surface low is expected to track into WI
sometime Fri or Fri nt, but this is associated with an upper
level shortwave trough rolling across southern Canada and a lot
can change between now and then.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 201 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday. A cold front
spreading into southern WI from the northeast overnight will
bring steady, elevated easterly winds from early Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Some mid level clouds will be
possible along and behind the front Saturday morning.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 201 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

High pressure around 30.0 inches over the Upper Great Lakes will
strengthen to 30.2 inches by Saturday night dominate the
weather pattern into early next week. Breezy northeast to
easterly prevailing winds will develop in the wake of a cold
front overnight through Saturday, and again Monday into Monday
night. Winds will gradually become southerly on Wednesday as the
high begins to exit and low pressure develops in the southern
Plains.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...7 AM
     Saturday to 9 PM Saturday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Saturday to
     9 PM Saturday.

&&

$$

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