NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 091241
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
641 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder temps mainly in the 30s with a couple days in the 40s
  are forecast for the work week. Mostly dry conditions are
  forecast.

- Next chances for precipitation (20-40%) Thursday into Thursday
  night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 642 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A weak surface trough will pivot through northern Wisconsin this
afternoon, bringing just enough lift to spit out some showers in
central Wisconsin. There is still plenty of dry air in the lower
levels, and lift is expected to remain quite weak. Still, some
mesoscale models are indicating potential for a few showers to
reach the surface. With temperatures hovering right at or above
freezing, a wintry mix would be possible within these showers.
No impacts are expected due to the light and isolated nature of
any showers that develop. Farther south, southeasterly winds
will bring in continued warm advection, with temperatures
reaching the upper 30s by this afternoon.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Today and Tonight:

Low level warm air advection is underway and temperatures are
not expected to drop much early this morning, despite the low clouds
gradually clearing from west to east. Temperatures will hover in
the lower 20s and then rise into mid to upper 30s across most of
southern WI by late afternoon.

There was a prior mention of a freezing rain chance toward
central WI for this afternoon, but upstream obs and forecast RH
and profiles suggest that there will be too much dry air for
rain to reach the ground. It is looking more like virga, so we
Keep the forecast dry for now.

A strong low level jet will reinforce the mild air over srn WI
during the overnight hours. Lows tonight will only drop into the
lower 30s, except upper 20s toward central WI.

The combination of weak vorticity advection, warm air advection,
and some pooling of low level moisture ahead of an approaching
surface trough will lead to some low clouds developing
overnight. Ice crystal development is not likely, so there was a
discussion about the potential for freezing drizzle. However,
the moisture and forcing appear to be disjointed and we kept the
forecast dry at this time.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

Temperatures will be very mild to start the day Tuesday. Low
pressure crossing Ontario will push an associated surface trough
through southeast WI during the morning. Cold advection is
expected to dominate with brisk WNW winds so temperatures will not
make much upward progress during the day. Southern WI will remain
in weak cyclonic flow Wednesday and under high pressure Wed nt.
Clouds are expected to linger in east central WI Wed and keep
temps just below freezing there. Meanwhile, weak warm advection
may nose into southwest WI and bring high temperatures briefly
into the mid 30s. Clear and calm conditions Wed nt will allow
temps to drop into the teens for most of southern WI.

A weak shortwave trough crossing the Upper Midwest may bring a
swath of light snow to west central and portions of southern WI
on Thursday. However, the focus for precip looks like it will
shift toward IA/MO/IL by Thu afternoon/evening, with the stuff
over srn WI drying up or at least losing its forcing. Once the
focus shifts south of WI, we should be dry from Friday night
through the weekend with high pressure over the Great Lakes.
Temperatures look to gradually rise through this period, with most
afternoons reaching above freezing, and with lows each night in
the 20s. This is above normal for this time of year.

Temperature spread in models: Not surprising, Tuesday has a broad
distribution of max temps between the models, with a higher
probability in the warmer range. The current forecast is more
toward the 75th percentile and may need to be lowered with
subsequent forecasts. The MaxT probability for Wed is clearly
showing a bimodal distribution and the current gridded forecast
lies in the mean, which is around the 70th percentile. This is due
to the front bisecting our forecast area and is showing the two
scenarios depending on where that front actually ends up. Thu also
has a bimodal distribution, but to a much lesser extent and the
current forecast is leaning toward the warmer side in the 75th
percentile.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 642 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout today, with light
southerly winds. An isolated patch of wintry mix is possible,
but unlikely (10 to 15 percent chance) near SBM. Winds will
slowly shift to southwesterly, then northwesterly overnight
tonight. During this time, also expecting low level wind shear
to develop across all terminals. As winds shift northwesterly
into Tuesday morning, ceilings in the 1000 to 2000 ft range will
develop from west to east. Gusts near 20 kt will also develop
going into Tuesday afternoon.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Brisk southerly winds will persist over Lake Michigan overnight
as high pressure of 30.5 inches stalls over the eastern Great
Lakes and low pressure of 29.6 inches crosses Manitoba and into
Ontario. Steady southeast winds will build marginally high waves
in the nearshore zones north of Port Washington tonight and a
Small Craft Advisory is in effect until mid morning.

The associated surface trough will cross Lake Michigan
Monday night and bring brisk west to northwest winds Tuesday
through Wednesday. High pressure of 30.4 inches will cross the
Great Lakes Wednesday night through Saturday.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 3 PM Monday.

&&

$$

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