NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 251825
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
125 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with highs in the 60s again Sunday, with cooler
  temps by the lake under onshore winds

- Widespread showers (80-100 percent chance) and scattered
  thunderstorms return for Monday through Monday night. There is
  the potential for severe weather, with locally heavy rainfall
  also possible.

- Cooler temps Tuesday through the end of next week, with a
  frost/freeze potential by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Tonight through Sunday night:

Near normal lows are expected again tonight, with mostly clear
skies and light winds into at least the evening. Low clouds are
lingering over Lake Michigan this afternoon, with a couple
models suggesting this cloud deck may expand and advect inland
tonight. Thus could see a period of low clouds develop again
for the overnight hours into Sunday morning, mainly east of
Madison. If this cloud deck does form, it should dissipate by
mid-morning Sunday, similar to today.

Otherwise, periods of mid and high level clouds are expected
Sunday and Sunday night ahead of approaching low pressure. High
temps Sunday will be similar to today (including cooler by Lake
Michigan), with milder conditions Sunday night due to the
increasing cloud cover and southeast winds.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Monday through Saturday:

Low pressure is expected to lift from around the Iowa/Missouri
border early Monday to northwest Wisconsin by midnight Monday
night. Still looks like warmer temps, higher dewpoints, and
resultant greater instability within the warm sector of this
system may sneak into southern Wisconsin by Monday afternoon. A
50-60 kt LLJ overhead by the afternoon will contribute to sold
shear, bringing a potential for strong to severe storms.

A lot of questions remain with the severe chances, as there are
still modest differences with the low track among models.
Additionally, a couple models suggest that showers and storms
may move through during the morning due to strong warm air
advection aloft, which would likely dampen the stronger
convective potential in the afternoon and evening. The warm
sector could stay mainly south as well, with southeast winds off
the chilly waters of Lake Michigan possibly sharpening the
surface warm front along or south of the state line. That said,
a couple of the latest models are a little farther north with
the better warm sector ingredients, so we're still caught a bit
between two potential scenarios. Overall though, it's still
looking like areas along/south of I-94 and away from Lake
Michigan would have the greater chance to see a few severe
storms.

Will continue to keep an eye on a heavy rainfall threat on
Monday, given models push the ~1.50" precipitable water values
into southern portions of the forecast area. Localized flooding
would be a concern given saturated soils and rivers remaining
elevated.

Northwest flow will develop Tuesday behind the departing low and
will likely persist through the remainder of the week. Surface
high pressure will bring quiet weather much of this time, though
a shortwave or two may bring some light rain chances at times.
Temps in this pattern will run near to a few degrees below
normal. Could see a return of a frost/freeze potential by the
end of the week.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Mostly clear skies will continue into at least the evening. Low
clouds are lingering over Lake Michigan this afternoon, with a
couple models suggesting this cloud deck may expand and advect
inland tonight. Thus could see a period of low clouds develop
again for the overnight hours into Sunday morning, mainly east
of Madison. If this cloud deck does form, it should dissipate by
mid-morning Sunday, similar to today.

Otherwise, periods of mid and high level clouds are expected
Sunday ahead of approaching low pressure. Light easterly winds
tonight will increase a bit out of the southeast on Sunday.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

High pressure of 30.0 inches over the northern Great Lakes will
result in northerly winds of 10-20 knots continuing into this
evening. East to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are then
expected to develop tonight into Sunday as the high shifts
eastward ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The 29.4
inch low is expected to lift from around the Iowa/Missouri
border early Monday to Lake Superior by early Tuesday morning.
Winds will increase Monday into Monday night out of the south to
southeast ahead of this low. The cooler lake temps should
dampen the threat for gales across the lake, with a Small Craft
Advisory likely for the nearshore waters. Breezy west to
northwest winds will then develop behind the departing low by
later Tuesday.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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