NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 080028
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
628 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A narrow band of accumulating snow is expected to develop late
  this evening just east and north of Madison, then shift east
  to the MKE metro area after midnight. 1-2 inches of snow is
  forecast.

- Milder temps mainly in the 30s with a couple days in the 40s
  are forecast for next week. Mostly dry conditions are
  forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 628 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Snow is beginning to develop across southern and central
Wisconsin this evening. WAA is kicking in and the upper level
vorticity is in place. As snow continues to develop will be
keeping an eye on how strong the mid level frontogenesis
becomes. This snow will be fairly transient, which will help
spread out snow totals across a larger area. Best chances remain
along and east of a line from the Dells to Madison to
Janesville. The one caveat to the snow right now is the dry air
in the low levels. This will delay the start time of the snow
by a couple hours. Dewpoint depressions are large around 10
degrees or more across southern Wisconsin. So despite the radar
reflectivity already this evening, very little if any snow is
making it to the ground yet. That stronger mid level Fgen will
help overcome this dry air overtime.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 118 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Tonight through Tuesday:

Mid level cloud cover via warm advection has already increased
across much of srn WI this afternoon. A 500 mb vorticity
maximum over ND is expected to track sewd across srn WI late
tnt, while another vort max over the central high plains will
track across srn IA. The main level of concern is 600-700 mb
where a shortwave trough and fairly strong baroclinic zone will
move through the area. Mid level frontogenesis could become
fairly strong, but there are differences among the models in
strength and placement. It also is transient as it shifts sewd
through the night, but some areas could see 3-5 hours of snow.

At this time the best placement for a nw-se oriented band of
snow shifting esewd with time would initially be just north and
east of Madison, reaching the MKE metro area after midnight.
Much of the accumulating snow would end by 12Z Sun, but very
light snow and light lake effect snow (sely boundary layer flow
but instability is limited) could linger a bit in the morning.
Will forecast 1-2 inches of snow tnt for ern WI.

Low pressure and a couple upper waves will then track across srn
Canada for Sun-Tue. This will bring sly winds and warm advection
with high temps warming well into the 30s and even some 40s. The
winds will shift nwly on Tue with the passage of a weak cold
front but still mild temps as mentioned. This will remain a dry
period.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 118 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Wednesday through Saturday:

Weak shortwave troughs in nwly flow aloft may affect srn WI at
times during this period, followed by upper ridging late in the
week. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will eventually
build swd into the wrn Great Lakes late in the week, shifting
into the nrn Ohio Valley for Sat. 20-30 percent chances for
light snow are forecast late Wed nt-Thu nt. Above normal temps
are forecast for this period.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 628 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Largely VFR to MVFR conditions through the period. Light to
moderate snow is developing across central and southern
Wisconsin this evening. Snow is expected primarily along and
east of a line from the Dells to Madison to Janesville (DLL -
MSN - JVL). Ceilings around 6 to 3 kft are expected with the
snow showers and visibilities will primarily be around 2-4 SM.
Can't rule out visibilities dropping at low as 1 SM under the
heaviest band of snow fall, but this should be brief. For
eastern terminals the light snow and MVFR cigs will likely
persist into Sunday morning. By mid to late morning Sunday,
skies will attempt to clear and VFR conditions will return when
the snow ends.

East-southeast winds this evening will be breezy at times with
gusts up to 25 MPH. Winds gradually become more southeasterly by
Sunday morning then turn to due southerly Sunday night. Breezy
winds are expected through the period.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 118 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Lessening north winds today will give way to light and variable
winds tonight as high pressure of 30.4 inches moves across Lake
Michigan. As high pressure slowly moves toward the lower Great
Lakes late tonight and Sunday, modest southeast winds will
develop. Modest south to southwest winds are then expected
Monday and Monday night as low pressure around 29.7 inches
moves across Ontario. The trailing cold front will then pass
across the lake Tuesday morning with modest west to northwest
winds taking hold into the middle of the week.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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