NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 220325
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1025 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms ~12-7 PM Saturday mainly in east-
  central and southeast Wisconsin. An isolated stronger storm
  with gusty winds or hail can't be ruled out.

- Dry and pleasant conditions Sunday into the beginning of next
  week. Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1030 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

Quiet weather expected the rest of the night as storms have
dissipated or pushed out over the lake with no concerns with the
forcing and instability having pushed out as well. Dry
conditions largely expected through Saturday morning. Into
Saturday afternoon a backdoor cold front in combination with
some surface convergence along the lake breeze could bring some
additional shower and/or storm development into the early
evening. Chances remain fairly limited and only isolated
showers/storms are possible but the focus will be closer to the
lake and unlikely to impact any of western WI. Shear will be
limited and thus we do not expect storms to become strong.

Quieter weather will quickly return Saturday night as the front
slides out and higher pressure begins to nudge in.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1030 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Sunday will feature high pressure building into the region
keeping things dry through the day Tuesday. The high pressure
will begin to push out Tuesday night into Wednesday thus becoming
our next best chance for showers and storms as and 850mb front
and upper level shortwave swing through with some WAA, in
addition to the surface low and corresponding cold front. Still
some uncertainty in track and timing but models generally agree
on this pushing through bringing precip with likely some storms
as well. In addition, deep layer shear appears to be strong in
the 40-50kt range which would bring some severe risk if the
timing of storms is into the afternoon/evening with good daytime
heating.

After Wednesday, uncertainty increases a bit though in general
higher pressure seems to be pushing in and strengthening with
drier conditions overall more likely, possibly even into the
weekend.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1030 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Tonight through Saturday morning expect quieter conditions with
light to modest northwest winds. Into the afternoon some weak
instability and a backdoor cold front with some lake breeze
impact could allow for a few isolated weak storms or showers
closer to the lake but for the most part much of the region is
expected top remain dry. Showers and/or storms may cause brief
VSBY degradation but otherwise VFR conditions expected.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1030 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A weak low pressure system around 29.8 inches will cross Lake
Michigan from north to south tonight and bring a wind shift to
the northwest. Then look for gusty northerly winds to develop
along a cold front that will track from north to south down Lake
Michigan Saturday evening. A few thunderstorms are possible
along this front. Northerly winds will persist through Sunday as
low pressure around 29.6 inches tracks from Lower Michigan to
Ontario. Variable winds are expected for Monday and Tuesday as
high pressure of 30.1 inches crosses the Upper Great Lakes.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee