NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 100356
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1056 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible later tonight, particularly in low-lying spots.

- Warm but less humid conditions through the end of the work
  week. No rain expected.

- Shower & thunderstorm chances return late Friday night into
  Saturday and Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1100 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Tonight through Friday:

High pressure is expected to remain over the area through the
day Friday with quiet conditions aloft. There will be a dry
shortwave pushing through Thursday with weak ridging to follow.
Overall outside of some patchy fog tonight and Thursday night,
primarily to west and in river valleys, the period will remain
largely quiet with light winds and mostly just high clouds.

Into Friday southerly winds will return as we start to get on
the western side of the high with lower pressure approaching.
The southerly winds should increase humidity across the region a
bit but given the weaker systems is not expected to change
things drastically. Both Thursday and Friday are generally
expected to be beautiful weather days.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1100 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Friday night through Wednesday:

Friday night will feature high pressure exiting the region with
a low pressure system pushing in from the west sliding
northeast with nearly zonal flow aloft. As the low lifts north
of the Great Lakes a trailing front will pull through the region
late Friday night through Saturday. The concern with this is
the overall forcing becomes a little weaker aloft and limited
moisture in the low to mid levels. It improves later Saturday
into Saturday evening so there will be increased potential but
overall some uncertainty in exactly whether will see precip from
this. Some storms would be possible with this but overall no
strong storms would be expected given limited shear.

A brief period of high pressure should keep things quiet through
the day Sunday but a developing low in the central US should
start to bring some precip potential in overnight with a decent
shortwave pushing through though the focus will be further
northwest at this time associated with strong WAA from a strong
LLJ. Into the day Monday expect the low to lift into northern WI
with the trailing front becoming the concern later in the day.
While its no a guarantee given relatively uncertain shear this
front will carry some risk for strong to severe storms with
decent instability and depending on where storms are relative to
the front could be enough shear for storm organization and thus
severe weather. This will be something to watch going into the
weekend.

Beyond Monday looks likely to be drier through Wednesday as
higher pressure pushes in behind the front. Things become more
uncertain after Wednesday.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1100 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

No major aviation concerns tonight outside of some patchy
fog/low CIGS to the west that will mostly impact river valleys
tonight. It is not currently expected to impact any of the
terminals at this time but we cannot rule out some fog creeping
toward Madison tonight. Otherwise VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and light and variable winds.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1100 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

High pressure near 30.1 inches is building in from the northern
Great Plains, lingering through Thursday night & bringing light
and variable winds to the waters.

A new area of low pressure near 29.2 inches will shift from
central Canada toward the Hudson Bay Friday morning through the
day Saturday, bringing increasing south-southwest winds followed
by a west-northwest wind shift behind a cold front. Occasional
wind gusts near gale force are possible during this time frame,
though whether or not they will be widespread enough to warrant
headlines remains uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored
through the end of this week. Periods of showers and storms will
accompany the approaching/passing front, with widespread severe
weather not currently anticipated.

High pressure near 30.1 inches will shift from the northern Great
Plains across Lake Michigan Saturday night through Sunday night,
bringing light and variable winds. The next area of low pressure
& cold front will approach from the west early next week, bringing
increasing winds & additional chances for showers and storms.
Depending on the strength of the low and front, periods of gales &
some stronger storms could be possible. Will be providing
additional details as this portion of the period draws closer.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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