NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 230457
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated waterspout or two are possible over Lake Michigan
  through tonight.

- Dry and pleasant conditions into the beginning of next week.

- Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday along with
  warmer and more humid conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Tonight through Monday:

Mostly clear skies, light winds, and decreasing dewpoints are
expected tonight as high pressure builds in, with lows a few
degrees below normal in the low 50s most places. Quiet weather
will then continue Sunday and Monday as the high gradually
builds overhead. A drier and cooler airmass is expected through
this period with temperatures a couple to a few degrees below
normal along with lower humidity. Mostly clear skies will
persist Sunday and Monday, aside from some late morning and
afternoon cumulus each day.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

Surface low pressure is expected to pass by to the north Tuesday
night into Wednesday, along with an associated cold front and
shortwave. This system will likely bring shower and storm
chances back to southern Wisconsin Tue evening into Wednesday.
There is disagreement among models with the exact timing of the
stronger forcing, which would impact the strength of any storms
given typical diurnal instability trends. Models are showing a
moderate amount of shear with this system, so a few stronger
storms aren't out of the question if the timing is right to tap
some higher instability during the daytime hours. Warmer temps
and higher dewpoints are expected to return during this time
period as well under breezy southerly winds ahead of the
approaching low.

Mainly dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday under
surface high pressure. Could see a few diurnal showers though as
a few weak impulses move through the the persistent cyclonic
flow aloft. A stronger shortwave is then anticipated arrive Sat
per latest models, bringing shower/storm chances back to
southern Wisconsin. Near normal temperatures are likely for the
second half of the week.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected tonight into
early Sunday as high pressure builds in. Scattered VFR cumulus
and modest northwest winds are likely late Sunday morning into
the afternoon. Could see a lake breeze make an attempt at moving
inland tomorrow afternoon if offshore wind ease a bit. Light
winds and mostly clear skies will then return for Sunday evening
and overnight.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Isolated showers and storms will remain possible over the lake
tonight into at least early Sunday, with a small chance for an
isolated waterspout through tonight. Otherwise, breezy north to
northwest winds will persist into Sunday between deepening low
pressure around 29.7 inches over the eastern Great Lakes and
high pressure of 30.2 inches building in from the northwest.
Winds will eventually become lighter by mid-day Monday,
persisting into Tuesday as the high moves overhead. Breezy
southerly winds will then develop later Tuesday into Wednesday
as the high shifts eastward ahead of an approaching low.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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