NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 021929
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
129 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 60 percent chance for light snow for east central WI on
  Saturday then again for much of S WI Sunday evening. At least
  some minor snow accumulation and hazardous travel in both
  instances.

- Polar air to remain over southern WI through the weekend, then
  relatively mild temperatures for next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 129 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Tonight through Sunday:

High pressure will prevail over MN this afternoon and tonight
with a sfc ridge extending along the WI/IL border into the Ohio
Valley. Mid to high clouds will then increase for tnt-Sat due to
a shortwave trough tracking from NE to the srn Ohio Valley.
Farther to the north, a couple vorticity maximums will track
across nrn and central WI on Sat, with a stronger upper wave to
follow across the nrn Great Lakes. The PVA and mid level warm
advection is looking stronger for Sat and will now forecast 60
percent chances of lgt snow for east central WI with perhaps one
half inch of snow accum. Polar high pressure will then settle
over WI late Sat nt into Sun AM with decreasing clouds, followed
by more clouds late Sun. Temps will remain a bit below normal
through the weekend.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 129 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Sunday night through Friday:

A shortwave trough approaching from the west will pass Sunday
evening. A surge of low to mid level warm advection and PVA will
likely bring a burst of snow to S WI. Snow accums would still
likely remain on the light side but greatest toward east central
WI. A quasi-zonal jet stream and relatively mild temperatures
are then forecast into the middle of the week followed by swly
flow aloft and possible cyclogenesis late in the week. 20-30
percent chances for rain and snow is forecast Tue-Tue nt with
40-50 percent chances for rain Thu-Fri due to the aforementioned
cyclogenesis.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 129 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tnt, then light snow will
become likely on Saturday over east central WI. MVFR Cigs and
Vsbys of 1-3SM are expected with the snow. The snow could expand
farther south toward Madison and Milwaukee.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 129 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Modest to sometimes gusty west northwest winds will prevail this
afternoon through Saturday night as low pressure continues to
weaken over Hudson Bay, while a ridge of high pressure around
30.1 inches extends from Minnesota into the Ohio Valley. The high
will then move across Lake MI on Sunday with light and variable
winds. Breezy southerly winds will then develop Sunday night and
linger into Monday morning as a wave of low pressure moves across
the northern Great Lakes.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed late Saturday night and
Sunday morning north of Port Washington due to persistent south
winds building wave heights to 3 to 5 feet.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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