NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 252350 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
550 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and breezy conditions are expected Friday

- A swath of light accumulating snow is possible on Saturday

- Near to below normal temperatures this weekend will be
  followed by gradually warming conditions the first half of
  next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 550 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Winds will diminish quickly this evening as high pressure
settles in and we decouple under clear skies. Temps will easily
drop into the teens with the dry air in place, and single
digits are likely toward central WI. The precip tracking across
Iowa right now will remain to our south overnight, but some high
clouds will spread into southern WI during the overnight hours
and limit the degree of the radiational cooling.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1254 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

Clouds have mainly cleared out early this afternoon as high
pressure builds in from the northwest, with mostly clear skies
expected through at least the evening hours. Clouds are expected
to build back in from the west overnight into Thursday, as a
weak shortwave moves through. Kept a only slight chance (~20%)
of snow north of I-94 with this shortwave tomorrow, as the
better forcing and moisture are expected to pass by to the
north. Wouldn't be surprised at a few flurries during the
morning hours though, given deep enough saturation at times
along with weak lift. Southwest winds through the afternoon
should allow for milder temps tomorrow, with highs reaching 40
most places.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1254 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

A brief warmup is expected Friday as southerly low level flow
increases ahead of a low pressure system passing by well to the
north. There should be enough sunshine to combine with the mild
southwest winds for well above normal highs in the mid to upper
50s most places. The cold front associated with the low will
move through late Friday afternoon and into evening, resulting
in temps returning to around normal for Friday night and
Saturday.

Another shortwave sliding through Saturday will bring a
reinforcing shot of colder air along with a better chance for
some light snow accumulations. Models are in good agreement
showing an area of strong warm air advection and frontogenesis
around 700 mb, which should produce a relatively narrow band of
snow within the base of the quick moving trough. These
situations are often tricky to pinpoint where the accumulating
snow will set up, with north/south shifts likely in future model
runs. Latest guidance is suggesting 1-2" of snow late morning
through the afternoon within the swath of higher precip totals.

Dry weather is expected Sunday and Monday as high pressure moves
through the region. Colder conditions Sunday behind the
departing system will likely result in highs only topping out
in the mid to upper 20s. Temps will begin to moderate Monday,
with highs expected to reach the mid 30s.

Temperatures are expected to continue to climb through the first
half of next week, with well above normal temps likely by
Wednesday. Latest models suggest mainly dry weather Tue/Wed,
though a shortwave Tuesday may bring some light precip chances
to the area.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 550 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Light and variable winds are expected tonight. We are no longer
expecting snow or flurries over southern/central WI on Thursday
as the feature should remain to our north. Only mid and high
level clouds are expected Thursday into Thursday evening.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1254 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Breezy west to northwest winds will gradually ease late this
afternoon into tonight as high pressure of 30.0 inches builds
in from the northwest. South to southwest winds will then pick
up later Thursday morning into Friday ahead of an approaching
low and the departing high. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed
during the day Friday, with a few gales not of question across
northern portions of the lake later Friday into Friday night as
a cold front moves through. Breezy northerly winds are then
expected Saturday between departing low pressure and a strong
high approaching from the northwest.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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