NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 011102
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
602 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With the dry and warming trend, keeping an eye on potential
  for elevated fire weather conditions through the week.

- Trending warm and humid Thursday into the weekend with
  multiple chances for showers and storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 600 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Showers have diminished this morning. The ongoing forecast
remains on track with high pressure to the north influencing the
pattern across southern WI. Northeasterly onshore flow will keep
temps cooler in the 60s for lakeshore areas while inland areas
are expected to warm into the 70s and approach 80F further
west.

Wagner

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1114 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Rest of Tonight through Wednesday:

An area of light showers over central MN and southwest WI is
associated with mid level vorticity advection and weak low level
warm air advection. This forcing will continue to slowly shift
eastward overnight into Monday. With cloud bases between 8000
and 10kft and dry air below it, only sprinkles and light rain
are making it to the ground.

With the mid level clouds expected to sit over southern WI for
most of the day, our high temps may be lower than what the NBM
and other current guidance suggests. I lowered the Max T a
couple degrees, but we will have to watch the temp trends.

In addition, the upper low sitting over the northeast will
swing a trough into Michigan Monday morning. This will push
colder, lake- cooled air from east to west across southern WI
Monday morning (back door cold front). This one does not look as
strong as the one on Saturday, but we can still plan for a
steady easterly wind and cooler temperatures near the lake.

Tuesday winds will still be easterly but lighter. Sunshine will
help temps rise into the upper 70s for inland areas. The surface
ridge will start to shift east toward the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday. This will allow for winds to become more southerly by
late afternoon and temps to rise above 80 inland. The lake
breeze will still play a role in the lakeshore temperatures.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1114 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Thursday through Sunday:

An active weather pattern will set up for the latter half of the
week. The interaction between shortwaves tracking along the
U.S./Canadian border and also from the Southern Plains to the
Upper Midwest will draw Gulf moisture into the region. A slow-
moving cold front will be the focus for chances of showers and
thunderstorms in southern WI. Thursday night could bring our
first round. Subsequent chances for showers/storms will depend
on where the outflow boundaries and effective front set up
beyond that.

It looks like a period or two of severe storms should be
possible based on the warm and humid environment with decent
synoptic forcing.

Beyond Sunday, a closed upper low will set up over the west
coast. This should keep us in the warm and humid southerly flow
for a while, so expect small chances for showers and storms in
this pattern.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 600 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Showers have diminished and high clouds linger this morning.
However, VFR conditions with east-northeasterly winds will
prevail as high pressure sits over the Great Lakes region
today.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1114 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Widespread gales are not anticipated through the period across the
open waters of Lake Michigan. 30.4 inch high pressure will remain
entrenched across the Hudson Bay through Monday, resulting in
generally north to northeasterly breezes. The center of the high
will build south over Lake Michigan Tuesday and Tuesday night,
leading to generally north-northeast winds over southern Lake
Michigan and light westerlies further north. Said high will
gradually shift east on Wednesday, allowing winds to trend
southerly across the entirety of the lake. 29.7 inch low pressure
will shift from the Canadian Great Plains into Ontario Wednesday
night through Thursday, resulting in increasing southwesterly
winds across the waters. Gusts up to 30 knots will be possible
over the northern third of the lake during this time frame.

The weather pattern will trend more active regionally Thursday night
into the weekend, with multiple chances for showers and storms
returning to the open waters. Strong storm potential remains
uncertain at this time, with trends being monitored over coming
forecasts.

Cronce

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued 1114 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

With little measurable rainfall anticipated overnight and precip-
free conditions continuing, a combination of warm and dry air
will lead to widespread relative humidities in the lower 20
percent range each afternoon from Monday through Wednesday.
Light winds are expected to keep fire weather conditions well
below Red Flag Warning thresholds. Exercise caution if planning
to burn.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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