NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 081856
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms are possible this evening mainly north
  of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Damaging
  winds and large hail are the main hazards. Locally heavy
  rainfall and localized flooding may occur in the same areas.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again Thursday
  afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and small hail may
  occur.

- Hot and muggy conditions return early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Tonight and Thursday:

An outflow boundary continues to trigger showers over Racine
County early this afternoon with likely some development for
Kenosha County soon. Otherwise a cluster of storms is moving ewd
across far nrn IA and adjacent MN. This area of storms has
developed in a region of weak warm, moist advection and on the
srn periphery of a vorticity maximum that stretches from central
WI into se MN. Additional showers and storms are currently
developing over central WI as well. Expect convection to grow in
coverage and intensity the remainder of the afternoon over the
aforementioned areas as MLCAPE builds to 1500-2000 J/KG.
Effective shear will range from 30-40 kts over central WI but
decreasing to 20 kts over srn WI with a lessening of overall
shear toward the early evening. Nevertheless, enough CAPE and
storm organization will support a decent potential for severe
thunderstorms for a time toward central WI.

For later in the evening and overnight, more of a locally
heavy rain and urban and small stream flood potential will
exist. This is supported by a wly 25 kt low level jet and
associated thetae advection within the thermal ridge and the
approaching weak shortwave trough from the nw. This is in
conjunction with PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches and weak corfidi
vectors. The CAMs and model QPF suggest the flood threat should
remain isolated. Ongoing scattered storms and additional storms
are then expected on Thu with the passage of the cold front and
shortwave trough. Only marginal CAPE is expected with rather
weak effective shear continuing. Thus the severe threat will be
very low as well as an isolated heavy rain threat.

Nely winds will bring a slightly cooler and drier airmass for
Friday as high pressure builds from the nrn Great Lakes into WI.
Seasonal temps and humidity is forecast.


Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Saturday through Wednesday:

Primarily dry weather is predicted this weekend through the
middle of next week. An upper-level ridge building over the
Plains and moving toward the Great Lakes region this weekend
with high geopotential height values alongside a surface high
pressure system are likely to persist during this period.
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 80s range,
increasing into the low 90s next week.

Zawlocki/Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Sct-bkn035-040 cumulus this afternoon and evening. Scattered
showers and isold storms will affect far se WI early this
afternoon, then widespread showers and scattered storms this
evening toward central and sw WI. Areas of MVFR Cigs via
stratus will then develop from central WI toward srn WI early Thu
AM and linger through the afternoon. Patchy light fog may also
develop late tnt into Thu AM especially toward central and
south central WI. More scattered showers and storms are
forecast on Thu.


Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

High pressure around 30.1 inches will remain over the Ohio Valley
today and tonight. Modest south winds will continue today, as
weak low pressure around 29.8 inches and an accompanying cold
front approaches from Upper Michigan and northwest Wisconsin.
Light to modest southerly winds tonight will become north behind
the frontal passage Thursday into Thursday night. Winds will
become north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.1
inches builds into the the region. The high should continue to
bring light to modest winds for the weekend.


Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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