NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 111855
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1255 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and gradually warming with above normal temps through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1251 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

High pressure will influence the pattern across southern WI
through the end of the week. Breezy winds this afternoon will
gradually come down into this evening as high pressure slowly
shifts eastward overnight. Will remain overhead through much of
the day Thursday before shifting into the eastern Great Lakes
overnight.

Given the lighter winds and clear conditions, do expect temps
to fall overnight into the upper teens to low 20s. However, as
southerly winds become more prevalent for Thursday, expect to
see temps gradually warm with warmest temp across southwestern
WI in the lower 40s and mid to upper 30s for areas further east.
Then one last chilly night overnight Thursday.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1251 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

The main story of the extended will be the unseasonable warm
temps beginning Friday and continuing through early next week.
Potential to see high temps in the 50s steadily increase each
day through this weekend. The 12z NBM has 20-50% chance for
southwest half of the CWA Friday, 30-70% for much of southern WI
Saturday, and 40-80% again for Sunday. Meanwhile thew EPS and
GEFS are not as aggressive with highs cracking 50F, but still
have low-medium chances following the trend of the NBM. But
nevertheless there is high confidence to see temps well above
normal and daytime highs in the 40s through the weekend. Will
see above normal overnight lows as well with temps around or
even above freezing through the weekend. The above normal temp
pattern is progged to continue through early next week as WPC
Cluster analysis agrees on 500mb ridging building across the
Midwest through at least the start of next week. Overall
southern WI is looking to remain dry through the weekend into
the start of early next week as southern WI remains generally
within the upper-level ridge or zonal flow north of any trough.

Then there are hints in the long range deterministic models as
well as the clusters and ensembles to see the pattern break down
and become more active across the central CONUS Tuesday into
middle of next week. Some of the 12z models continue to have a
trough digging across the Plains and lifting into the Midwest
for this timeframe. However, there continues to be a wide spread
in system track and strength of this activity, thus cannot say
with any certainty this far out, but it does bear watching on how
models handle it through the weekend.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1251 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure
works its way overhead tonight into Thursday. Expect breezy
northwesterly winds this afternoon to weaken and become light
and variable overnight into Thursday with the high's passage.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1251 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

High pressure will continue to move from the Upper
Midwest/Plains this evening and over the Great Lakes into
Thursday. Will see the breezy northwesterly winds this
afternoon gradually weaken tonight and remain light through the
day Thursday. Then high pressure will shift east by Friday and
southwesterly flow returns to Lake Michigan for Friday. Will see
a weak cold front pass over the Lake into Saturday turning
winds more westerly as Lake Michigan sits between two low
pressures with one tracking across far northern Manitoba and
Ontario and another tracking across the lower Mississippi River
Valley. Southerly winds then return for Sunday and linger into
the start of next week.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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