NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 131125 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
625 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely today, mainly this
  afternoon and evening, though showers may linger into tonight.
  A couple storms may become strong to severe, with large hail
  and damaging winds the main concern.

- Below normal temperatures for early next week.

- Next chances for thunderstorms develop Tuesday and Wednesday
  next week. Too early to tell intensity, but monitoring for
  potential stronger storms, especially on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 625 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mid-level clouds and isolated showers associated with an area of
warm advection will depart this morning, with a brief period of
clearing possible. Clouds will likely increase by late morning
due to high clouds from upstream storms as well a chance for
late morning and afternoon cumulus.

Showers and storms are still expected this afternoon into the
evening as a trough approaches. The expectations haven't
changed for these storms, with a chance a couple storms could
become strong to severe from mid/late afternoon into early
evening. Large hail and strong winds are the main concerns if
any stronger storms do develop. Showers may then linger into the
overnight hours as the trough swings through.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

A wswly low level jet of 30-40 kt will extend ewd across nrn
IA, far srn MN, and into central WI tnt. Warm, moist advection
and frontogenesis will continue to support showers and sct
storms over the srn half of MN moving into central WI later this
evening. A few of these showers may eventually clip MQT, Green
Lake, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan Counties during the overnight.

An additional area of showers and storms may then develop early
Sat AM over ern NE as deeper moisture returns on the low level
jet. The low level jet will weaken through the morning but
scattered showers and storms may continue within the 850 mb
frontogenetic zone that extends into central WI. The sfc-850 mb
frontal zone will then slowly shift sewd across srn WI through
the afternoon and evening, with its slow motion due to the late
arrival of the upstream shortwave trough for Sun AM. MLCAPEs
may rise to 1000 J/KG by mid to late afternoon while deep layer
shear of 50 kt will be in place. This CAPE and shear combination
could certainly support severe storms, but overall weak low
level convergence and lack of dynamics aloft should limit the
severe storm threat to the Marginal Risk that is outlooked. Rain
chances of 20-40 percent are forecast for the early afternoon
then transitioning to 60-70 percent along and south of a line
from Cedarburg to just south of Madison to sw WI for late
afternoon and early evening.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

A shortwave trough will pass Sun AM with cold advection continuing
much of the day along with broken cloud cover. Thus high temps
are only forecast to rise into the upper 60s.

Additional shortwave troughs will continue to arrive next week
on nwly flow aloft due to the large upper low over Ontario. The
first well organized upper trough will bring rain chances of
60-80 percent Tue afternoon, but the second upper trough may
result in cyclogenesis from the Great Plains into the Great
Lakes or Ohio Valley for Wed-Wed nt. There is much uncertainty
with the strength, placement, an overall evolution of the
cyclogenesis, but rain chances will still remain high (60-80
percent). Temps will remain slightly below normal then
rebounding late in the week.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 625 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mid-level clouds and isolated showers associated with an area
of warm advection will depart this morning, with a brief period
of clearing possible. Clouds will likely increase by late
morning due to high clouds from upstream storms as well a chance
for late morning and afternoon cumulus.

Showers and storms are still expected this afternoon into the
evening as a trough approaches. A couple of the storms could be
strong to severe, with large hail and strong winds the main
concerns. Showers may then linger into the overnight hours as
the trough swings through.

Breezy southwest winds are likely today, with gusts to 25 knots
expected during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will
then become lighter from the northwest this evening into tonight
behind the trough and cold front.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Low pressure around 29.2 inches in the Hudson Bay will continue
to bring modest to breezy southwest winds to Lake Michigan
through Saturday. A cold front will then move north to south
across the lake Saturday night, with winds become northwesterly
and a bit gusty. Northwesterly winds will then gradually diminish
on Sunday. Light southwest winds will then return on Monday
before low pressure develops in the northern Great Plains and
brings gusty south winds to the lake for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds may become very gusty going into Wednesday evening as low
pressure crosses the northern half of the Lake. A few gales are
possible. Winds then shift to westerly as low pressure exits on
Thursday.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM
     Saturday to 5 PM Saturday.

&&

$$

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