NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 241602
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1002 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds, fog and drizzle/light rain will spread into
  southern Wisconsin today and linger into Tuesday. Periods of
  dense fog are possible.

- Much colder and blustery for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

- Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow by
  next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1000 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low clouds some fog and drizzle will gradually push in over the
course of the day today as a weakening upper trough and a
corresponding phasing low pressure system works its way through
the region today into Tuesday. Overall rain amounts expected to
be limited as we largely expect to get gapped by the better
forcing and moisture with this system. However, low level
moisture should allow for some drizzle to affect much of the CWA
later today into tonight.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 352 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Today through Tuesday:

A closed upper low over the Plains will make its way across
Nebraska today and Missouri tonight while weakening into an open
shortwave trough. Mid level vorticity advection and upper
divergence with the entrance region of an upper jet will produce
a broad area of lift over Iowa, Illinois and southern Wisconsin
this afternoon. The steadier rain this afternoon and tonight will
be focused along the 700-600mb frontogenesis which will be
mainly over central WI. For most of southern WI, expect areas of
drizzle with low clouds are are expected to develop by midday.
Light fog is possible as well due to increasing dewpoints.

On Tuesday, surface low pressure strengthening over central WI
will help keep the low level moisture in place over southern WI.
Drizzle or light rain will continue to be possible. Clouds will
keep temperatures on the lower end of guidance Monday and
Tuesday, with highs around 50.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 352 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Tuesday night through Sunday:

As low pressure occludes and ejects eastward into the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan, expect a wave of rain along an occluded
front propagating west to east across southern Wisconsin (70-90%
chance). After the front propagates through, northwesterly winds
will begin to gust between 25 and 35 mph and scattered rain/snow
mix showers will develop (20-50% chance, highest in central
Wisconsin). Low pressure will continue to deepen across eastern
Ontario through Wednesday, keeping southern Wisconsin within the
northwesterly flow and wrap-around precipitation regime through
Wednesday evening. Wrap-around precipitation through Wednesday is
expected to be snowfall with temperatures remaining near freezing
through the afternoon hours, with NBM PoPs of 20-50% reasonable at
this point with substantial model agreement on the evolution of
the low but coverage of snow showers lower due to the more diffuse
nature of wrap-around precipitation. GFS soundings indicate some
potential for dry air intrusion in the upper levels near the
dendritic growth zone, which may result in some periods of
freezing drizzle, but confidence in this outcome remains low at
this time, so continued with a straight rain-to-snow solution.

Any lingering precipitation will taper off from west to east
overnight Wednesday, but northwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
will continue throughout the overnight hours and into Thursday
(Thanksgiving Day). This will bring in cooler than average
temperatures under high pressure from the Canadian Prairies
Thursday (Thanksgiving) and Friday, with highs in the low 30s and
lows in the teens.

Active weather returns into the weekend, with a developing low
pressure system in the lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies. A
warm front and overrunning precipitation will begin to nudge
northward into southern Wisconsin late Friday night into Saturday
morning (20-40% chance precipitation), with precipitation becoming
more widespread into Saturday and Saturday night (40-60% chance)
as the low deepens and progresses eastward into the Mississippi
Valley. Confidence in exact strength and duration of this
system remains low, as the heavier/longer duration precipitation
solutions are dependent on the system phasing with a shortwave
from the Canadian Rockies propagating southeastward during the
development phase of the Colorado Rockies low. The GFS is the
most aggressive with duration and precipitation, continuing snow
and rain through Sunday, while the Euro and Canadian lean
toward a dry solution by Sunday. Due to uncertainty, kept NBM
PoPs through the weekend. Regardless, high temperatures across
southern Wisconsin throughout the weekend are expected to be in
the low 30s, so the majority of precipitation would fall as
snow.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1000 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

LIFR/IFR CIGS with MVFR to IFR VSBYS are beginning to push in
from the west this morning with impacts to VSBYS and CIGS
expected for much of southern WI later today as a system pushes
in. Drizzle/mist will also be likely given the abundant very
low level moisture. There is some uncertainty on how widespread
the lowest VSBYS get and how low but some quarter mile VSBYS
seem possible based on observations to the west and southwest
right now. Some improvement is certainly possible as this pushes
in but that where the highest uncertainty lies. However, CIGS
look much more likely to remain LIFR, perhaps even some VLIFR.
The timing looks focused for this afternoon for impacts to
really push in with impacts likely lingering overnight. The best
chances for rain appear largely focused for central and far
southeast WI.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 352 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Southerly winds will increase today as low pressure around 29.7
inches develops in the Northern Plains. The low will strengthen
to 29.6 inches as it tracks across Minnesota on Tuesday. The
associated cold front will surge across southern Lake Michigan
Tuesday night and expand into northern Lake Michigan Wednesday as
the low further deepens to 29.3 inches over eastern Lake
Superior. The strong low will generally maintain its strength as
it crosses Ontario Wednesday night and Quebec on Thursday.

Westerly gales will likely develop over southern Lake Michigan
early Wednesday morning and expand into the north half several
hours later. The westerly gales will become northwesterly
Wednesday night and persist into Thursday afternoon before
diminishing. A Gale Watch is in effect for all of Lake Michigan
and also the nearshore areas of southeast Wisconsin.

Winds will diminish as high pressure of 30.5 inches crosses the
midwest on Friday. Look for southerly winds to develop Sunday as
low pressure develops over the western half of the country.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Watch...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM Friday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM Wednesday to 9
     PM Thursday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 AM Wednesday to 6
     PM Thursday.

&&

$$

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