NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 061811
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1211 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures Saturday will return back to around
  normal Sunday

- Chance (20-50%) for light snow Saturday evening and overnight,
  mainly northeast of a line from the Wisconsin Dells to Kenosha

- Milder temps are expected early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1211 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

Could see a few light snow showers in the east this afternoon,
with clearing skies from the northwest the remainder of the day
as high pressure builds in. A colder airmass aloft along with
mostly clear skies and decreasing winds will allow for chilly
lows overnight in the 0 to 5 above range. Below normal highs in
the upper teens to around 20 are likely Saturday under the high,
with increasing clouds in the afternoon ahead of a shortwave.

There will be a chance for light snow Saturday evening and
overnight as the weak shortwave and a solid swath of warm air
advection and frontogenesis aloft move through. Bumped the
precip chances up a bit to the 20-50% range given the decent
forcing, with the best chance for a couple to few tenths of an
inch of snow northeast of a line from the Wisconsin Dells to
Kenosha.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1211 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Upper level ridging will build into the region early next week,
with near normal temperatures Sunday warming to above normal for
Monday and Tuesday. A weak shortwave may push through the area
Sunday night, but models are generally keeping the precip
chances north of the forecast area. Otherwise, dry weather is
likely through early next week.

It's looking a little cooler the second half of next week as a
troughing pattern returns to the region. Temps aren't expect to
drop much though, with highs still near to a couple degrees
above normal through this period. A weak shortwave or two may
slide through later next week, but agreement among models on any
particular system is low this far out in the forecast. Precip
chances are thus generally 20% or less for Wed through Fri.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1211 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings currently across southern
Wisconsin will gradually become all VFR conditions as clouds
clear out northwest to southeast this afternoon into early
evening. A few snow showers will be possible in eastern areas
this afternoon, but most places will likely remain dry through
the rest of the day. Breezy northwest winds will persist through
late afternoon, decreasing during the evening. Light winds and
mostly clear skies are then expected tonight into Saturday
morning as high pressure builds into the area. There is a
chance for light snow Saturday evening and overnight, mainly
northeast of a line from the Wisconsin Dells to Kenosha.
Accumulations of 0.5" or less will be possible.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1211 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Gusty northerly winds will continue into this evening, gradually
easing overnight into Saturday while becoming northwest as high
pressure of 30.5 inches builds in from the northwest. The end
timing of the Gale and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings along with
the Small Craft Advisory still look generally on track, with
the headlines coming to an end later tonight. Could see
extending the Small Craft Advisory and Heavy Freezing Spray
Warning into early Sat morning if higher waves linger a bit
longer.

Light winds later Saturday into Saturday night under the high
will increase a bit out of the south later Saturday night into
Sunday on the back side of the departing high. Light to moderate
southerly winds are expected to continue through at least Monday
night as low pressure of 29.8 inches approaches from the west.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until midnight
     Saturday.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
     LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876 until 3 AM Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 AM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee