NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 100528
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1228 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of light frost inland tonight. A Frost Advisory may be
  needed Sunday night/early Monday morning over portions of
  southern WI.

- Breezy and mild Sunday with highs around 60s. A few sprinkles
  will be possible north of I-94.

- A clipper system brings high shower chances (80 percent) for
  Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will be possible, but no severe
  storms are anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1227 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Today through Monday Night:

Areas of frost will be possible inland overnight. Temperatures
will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, so a frost advisory
will not be needed.

Today, expect mostly dry conditions, save for some small
potential (~10%) for sprinkles north of I-94 in association with
a weak shortwave aloft. Clouds will increase heading into the
afternoon with widespread cu expected. Highs around 60.

Tonight, colder temperatures are expected in the low to mid 30s
as high pressure builds into the region. More widespread frost
is possible and a Frost Advisory may be needed.

Dry weather continues Monday as high pressure lingers. East
winds off of the lake will lead to much cooler highs along the
lake in the low 50s, while areas well inland will see highs in
the low 60s.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1226 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

A low pressure system is expected to pass over the arrowhead
region of Minnesota Tuesday morning and over Lake Superior
during the afternoon. This low will drag a warm front over
Wisconsin during the morning and then a cold front during the
late afternoon. At this time, 2 periods of rain appear possible,
with some scattered morning rain along the WAA push into our
area, and then more rain along the cold front late in the day.
The warm sector of the low doesn't look rich with moisture, and
model soundings only show skinny CAPE in the environment during
the afternoon. Any afternoon storms on Tuesday will likely be
sub severe and weak, as only a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE and
MUCAPE will be available.

High pressure then takes hold Wednesday through Thursday with
WAA causing a warming trend heading into next weekend. A
stormier pattern then takes hold next weekend as a warm
front/stationary front parks over the region and passing
shortwaves kick off rounds of potential showers and storms.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1205 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Dry conditions and VFR skies will persist overnight into
tomorrow afternoon. Light northwest winds will come around to
westerly following the passage of a cold front after 06Z.

Tomorrow, breezy northwest winds return with gusts to 20 knots.
Widespread cu with bases around 5000 to 6000 feet will form
during the afternoon hours leading to SCT to OVC VFR skies and
may produce a few sprinkles.
CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1143 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A backdoor cold front will sag southward across the lake through
the next few hours as low pressure lifts north toward James Bay
tonight. Winds will largely become westerly behind the front and
may be breezy for an hour or two immediately behind the front.

High pressure around 30.3 inches is then expected to move from
southern Manitoba during the day tomorrow, to over Lake Michigan
by Monday morning. Relatively light and variable winds are
expected during this period. Low pressure around 29.7 inches
should then move east southeast across the region Tuesday, with
increasing south to southeast winds ahead of it, veering west to
northwest behind it for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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