NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 150036
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
736 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chances for thunderstorms develop Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Too early to tell intensity, but monitoring for potential
  stronger storms. Rain chances of 70-90 percent both days with
  heavy rain possible Wed and Wed night.

- Next chances for thunderstorms develop Saturday and Sunday.



&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 736 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Cumulus clouds will continue to dissipate early this evening.
Additional scattered cirrus clouds are expected to move across
srn WI during the overnight as the shortwave trough over SD
tracks to north central IL by 12Z Mon. At the surface, lgt
wswly sfc winds are expected tnt as high pressure will reside
over the central Great Plains while a west to east sfc trough
moves swd across nrn Ontario. Good radiational cooling
conditions in an already cool airmass will support low temps in
the upper 40s inland from the lake.

The next upstream shortwave trough will track into the ern
Dakotas on Mon then amplify as it moves to se MN by 12Z Tue.
The west to east sfc trough over Ontario will move to nw WI and
Lake Superior during this time.

Partly cloudy skies and weak warm advection on Mon should boost
temps into the middle 70s. By late Mon nt, a swly low level jet
around 35 kt and associated warm, moist advection will develop
into srn WI ahead of the amplifying upper wave. Rain chances
will increase to 20-40 percent, including chances for thunderstorms
as the Showalter Index falls to -1C.


Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

No precipitation is expected throughout the rest of today into
tonight. Northwesterly winds will continue to gust between 25 and
30 mph through the afternoon, diminishing quickly this evening.
Light winds expected overnight as high pressure builds in briefly,
with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Dry conditions continue through Monday, with some high clouds
building in Monday afternoon and some scattered diurnal cumulus as
well. Expecting highs in the mid-70s. Dry conditions continue
through the overnight, with winds shifting to southwesterly as a
low pressure system develops to the northwest. Expect overnight
lows in the mid-50s.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

Rapidly developing low pressure will swing through the Upper
Midwest on Tuesday. Parent trough looks to remain neutral to
positive, but increasing shear and some moderate instability in
the warm sector will lead to at least thunderstorms across
southern Wisconsin, and a low potential for a few stronger storms
as well. Warm frontogenesis looks to move through southern
Wisconsin in the morning hours Tuesday, so afternoon severe
potential will be highly dependent on whether any clearing can
develop in the warm sector before the mid-afternoon cold front
sweeps through. Precipitation tapers off overnight.

Dynamic pattern continues on Wednesday as a shortwave propagates
southward through the northern Great Plains and kicks off a
surface low. As the low deepens and interacts with the leftover
cold front from the previous system, this trough is expected to
kick negative. However, the timing and placement of this negative
tilt remains less certain, with the Euro indicating a negative
tilt in Wisconsin, but the GFS and Canadian not developing the
negative tilt until Michigan or southern Ontario. Therefore,
cannot rule out severe storms Wednesday. Keep an eye on the
forecast as the event nears.

After the shortwave exits Wednesday night, it is expected to stall
and pivot toward the north, bringing additional rounds of rainfall
to southern Wisconsin through the overnight hours. A reinforcing
cold front Thursday afternoon will bring another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms, but not expecting stronger
storms at this time. Highs in the mid-70s are expected on
Thursday.

A brief wave of high pressure builds across the region Thursday
night into Friday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible
Friday as we move through a convergence zone on the northern side
of the low, but chances are not high (15-25%). Highs in the mid to
upper 70s.

Precipitation chances (20-50%) return Saturday into Sunday as
high pressure settles across the Southeast U.S. and low pressure
developing in the central High Plains begins to bring warm
frontogenesis across the Upper Midwest.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 736 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions tnt-Mon evening. Cumulus dissipating early this
evening then few-sct050 cumulus for Mon afternoon.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest winds will gradually diminish this evening, becoming
light and variable overnight under a brief wave of high pressure
around 30.0 inches. Winds will shift to southwesterly Monday as
high pressure moves south into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Low
pressure is expected to deepen to 29.5 inches over Wisconsin on
Tuesday, bringing thunderstorms stronger southwesterly winds, and
a wind shift to northwesterly Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Wednesday, additional low pressure develops in the central Plains,
bringing southeasterly winds to the Lake. A few gales are possible
in the southern third of the open waters as low pressure moves
over the northern half of the Lake on Wednesday night. As low
pressure exits into Thursday morning, expect winds to become
northwesterly and remain gusty across all open waters into
Thursday afternoon before gradually diminishing. Lighter northwest
winds are then expected through Friday.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee