NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 032006
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
306 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late this
  afternooon and early evening, mainly south of a line from
  Madison to Milwaukee. Small chance of severe closer to the IL
  border.

- Additional batches of showers and storms continue tonight
  through Sunday. Keep up with the forecast if planning to be
  outdoors.

- Trending quieter early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 306 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Rest of Today through Saturday night:

There is a weak signal of 500mb vorticity advection over central
IA right now that is expected to track across southern
WI/northern IL late this afternoon and early evening. This could
trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of I-94.
The 17Z HRRR solution seems credible at this time, although it
may be a little to far north with the convection. The severe
threat is minimal since our environment was worked over with the
midday storms, although closer to the IL border there could be a
return of instability to support a stronger storm or two.

A thunderstorm complex should develop Iowa again tonight, and it
should track eastward into northern IL as it weakens. There is a
chance that it could clip southwest and far southern WI in
the morning between 5 and 9 AM.

Saturday Afternoon (Independence Day), scattered showers and
thunderstorms are looking likely during the afternoon (mainly
between noon and 8 PM) due to a shortwave trough tracking
through the region. The forecast soundings show tall, skinny
cape but weak shear. Any storms that develop will be fairly
brief, but slow- moving, so localized heavy rain is possible. If
a strong storm can develop, gusty winds could result from it.
With the warm temperature profile, hail is not a big threat.
Storms should diminish with sunset, as that is also when the
wave is expected to move out of southern WI.

Temperatures will be warm, but not nearly as hot and humid, so
heat headlines are not needed.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 306 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Sunday through Friday:

A mid level trough will swing through MN and WI Saturday night
through Sunday. This could bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms during the day Sunday, with some pop-up showers
possible during the nighttime hours.

Monday looks dry with northeast winds that will allow for cooler
high temperatures in the 70s near the lake and lower 80s inland.

The (normal-level) heat will return Tuesday and precip chances
return Tuesday night as an upper trough and weak surface low
pressure trough slowly slide across Wisconsin.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 306 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible south of
Madison to Milwaukee during the late afternoon and early
evening. There is a small chance for a decaying thunderstorm
complex to arrive in south central WI early Saturday morning,
but confidence is low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely during peak heating hours Saturday afternoon.

Patchy fog is possible in low spots and river valleys late
tonight, and also near Lake Michigan.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 306 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

High pressure around 30.1 inches will sit over the Appalachian
Mountains and a trough of low pressure will remain over the Great
Plains through tonight. A weak low pressure area will then
organize and slowly move across Wisconsin and Lake Michigan from
Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected at times through the weekend. Patchy
marine fog will be possible as warm and humid air flows over the
relatively cooler lake.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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