NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 130342
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1042 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few rounds of scattered thunderstorms expected Saturday
  afternoon through Saturday night. An isolated storm may
  become strong to severe, with damaging winds and hail the main
  threats.

- Below normal temperatures for early next week.

- Next chances for thunderstorms develop Tuesday and Wednesday
  next week. Too early to tell intensity, but monitoring for
  potential stronger storms, especially on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

A wswly low level jet of 30-40 kt will extend ewd across nrn
IA, far srn MN, and into central WI tnt. Warm, moist advection
and frontogenesis will continue to support showers and sct
storms over the srn half of MN moving into central WI later this
evening. A few of these showers may eventually clip MQT, Green
Lake, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan Counties during the overnight.

An additional area of showers and storms may then develop early
Sat AM over ern NE as deeper moisture returns on the low level
jet. The low level jet will weaken through the morning but
scattered showers and storms may continue within the 850 mb
frontogenetic zone that extends into central WI. The sfc-850 mb
frontal zone will then slowly shift sewd across srn WI through
the afternoon and evening, with its slow motion due to the late
arrival of the upstream shortwave trough for Sun AM. MLCAPEs
may rise to 1000 J/KG by mid to late afternoon while deep layer
shear of 50 kt will be in place. This CAPE and shear combination
could certainly support severe storms, but overall weak low
level convergence and lack of dynamics aloft should limit the
severe storm threat to the Marginal Risk that is outlooked. Rain
chances of 20-40 percent are forecast for the early afternoon
then transitioning to 60-70 percent along and south of a line
from Cedarburg to just south of Madison to sw WI for late
afternoon and early evening.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

A shortwave trough will pass Sun AM with cold advection continuing
much of the day along with broken cloud cover. Thus high temps
are only forecast to rise into the upper 60s.

Additional shortwave troughs will continue to arrive next week
on nwly flow aloft due to the large upper low over Ontario. The
first well organized upper trough will bring rain chances of
60-80 percent Tue afternoon, but the second upper trough may
result in cyclogenesis from the Great Plains into the Great
Lakes or Ohio Valley for Wed-Wed nt. There is much uncertainty
with the strength, placement, an overall evolution of the
cyclogenesis, but rain chances will still remain high (60-80
percent). Temps will remain slightly below normal then
rebounding late in the week.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Prevailing conditions of VFR is expected tnt into Sat evening
but scattered showers and isolated storms may affect locations
toward central WI early Sat AM. Additional scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop Sat afternoon and may become more
widespread along and south of I-94 for late afternoon and
evening. During this time, areas of MVFR Cigs may develop in the
vicinity or wake of storms.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 950 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Low pressure around 29.2 inches in the Hudson Bay will continue
to bring modest to breezy southwest winds to Lake Michigan
through Saturday. A cold front will then move north to south
across the lake Saturday night, with winds become northwesterly
and a bit gusty. Northwesterly winds will then gradually diminish
on Sunday. Light southwest winds will then return on Monday
before low pressure develops in the northern Great Plains and
brings gusty south winds to the lake for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds may become very gusty going into Wednesday evening as low
pressure crosses the northern half of the Lake. A few gales are
possible. Winds then shift to westerly as low pressure exits on
Thursday.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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