NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 212048
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
248 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures several degrees above normal this weekend into
  early next week.

- 80-90 percent chance of rain Monday night, lingering into
  Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures move in Thanksgiving Day onward as
  polar air arrives from Canada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 248 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Tonight through Sunday night:

Mostly cloudy skies via high clouds will prevail mainly from MSN
to MKE and swd as a wave train of vorticity maximums track west
to east from IA to srn WI. These high clouds will decrease early
in the evening. The more organized shortwave trough over ne KS
and nrn MO will move across the Ohio Valley tnt-Sat AM. Surface
ridging will remain over srn WI through 15Z Sat with good
radiational cooling conditions leading to low temps in the 20s
for tnt.

For Saturday afternoon and Sunday a Canadian shortwave trough in
nwly flow aloft will track from the nrn Great Lakes to the Mid
Atlantic States. At the surface, a trough/cold front will
approach Sat afternoon with swly winds and warm advection
ensuing. A band of cloud cover will occur with the QG lift but
no precipitation is expected at this time. The weak cold front
will then pass Sat nt. High pressure will then follow for Sun
afternoon and night. Relatively mild temps will continue for the
weekend.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 248 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Monday through Friday:

Clouds will increase Monday with rain becoming widespread Mon nt
as a shortwave trough tracks from the central or srn high plains
toward IL and srn WI. This shortwave trough will shear out as it
approaches due to a more dominant upper wave approaching the
Upper MS River Valley in the nrn jet stream. Nevertheless, warm,
moist advection, Fgen, and PVA will bring rain to the region.
A sfc low associated with the dominant upper wave will then
track across nrn WI or Lake Superior either Tue or Wed with its
polar cold front to arrive over srn WI Tue afternoon. The cold
advection will initially be gradual but increase into Wed and
Thanksgiving Day as the low moves into Quebec. Temps will fall
below normal by Thanksgiving Day and last at least into Friday.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 248 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions tnt-Sat.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 248 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Light to modest northwest winds will continue through this
evening as low pressure of 29.5 inches lingers in the Hudson Bay
area, and high pressure of 30.1 inches builds into Wisconsin.
High pressure builds overhead late tonight into Saturday morning,
bringing light and variable winds. For Saturday afternoon, expect
breezy southwest winds to develop as weak low pressure of 29.7
inches progresses through Lake Superior. Winds shift northwesterly
Saturday night into Sunday with the passage of a cold front. High
pressure briefly returns Sunday night, followed by modest south
winds developing Monday and Monday night, as low pressure moves
into the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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