NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 231451
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
851 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through
  Monday.

- 70 to 80 percent chance of rain Monday night, with additional
  waves of precipitation through Tuesday night (40 to 60
  percent chance).

- Below normal temperatures move in Wednesday and continue into
  at least the end of the week.

- Snow is possible Friday evening into Sunday across all of
  southern Wisconsin.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 851 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Quiet weather is expected today. A mid level cloud deck will
gradually lift north while also eroding from the south, with
sunny conditions expected for all but central Wisconsin by mid
day. Highs will range from the low to mid 50s south to upper 40s
to around 50 north.

Boxell

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 336 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today through Monday night:

Mostly sunny skies and light winds under high pressure today,
allowing temperatures to rise into the low 50s. Overnight, warm
air advection will kick in, bringing potential for very low
clouds and localized fog development by the early morning hours
Monday. Overcast skies and southerly winds will continue
throughout Monday, with a few rain showers developing along a
developing warm front Monday afternoon (20 to 30 percent
chance). Showers will fill in and become widespread overnight
Monday (70 to 80 percent chance) as low pressure propagates
eastward through the Middle Mississippi Valley and exits to the
east. With temperatures remaining in the low 40s, expecting all
precipitation to remain rain. Precipitation will briefly taper
off into early Tuesday morning.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 336 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tuesday through Saturday:

A mid level shortwave trough crossing the Northern Plains will
take on a negative tilt as it gets into MN Tue afternoon. The
resultant surface low will deepen over northern or central WI
during this time. The models and their ensembles have come into
much better agreement on the strength and timing of this system
than previous forecast. While the cluster analysis shows a
stronger consensus, the ENS (ECMWF Ensemble) has the largest
variety of solutions at this time.

Tuesday high temps will continue to be well above normal, in the
mid 50s with fairly light southerly winds. Some lingering light
rain is possible in the morning, but the majority of the day
should be dry.

Gusty west to northwest winds developing on the back side of the
low due to the rapid cyclogenesis will rush through southern WI
Wednesday evening behind the surface cold front. This should occur
between 6 pm and midnight, but the exact timing is still
uncertain. While the main precip area will be focused over MN and
northern WI, a few showers are possible in southern WI along this
front. The forecast temperature profile still looks warm enough
for the precip type to be rain.

Expect gusty westerly winds on Wednesday, and not much recovery to
temperatures given the strong cold air advection. Highs Wednesday
will be below normal, in the mid to upper 30s. With the steep low
level lapse rates and some low level moisture, expect
stratocumulus clouds. There may be flurries with these as well.

Thanksgiving Day is going to be chilly with highs around 31 and
brisk northwest winds. The morning should have more clouds than
the afternoon. The low will finally move out of southern WI
Thursday evening, so expect a quick transition to clear skies,
light winds and tanking temperatures. Lows Thu nt will be in the
teens.

The next system on the horizon is expected to arrive Friday night.
This could bring a swath of accumulating snow to southern
Wisconsin through Saturday morning. The snow may even linger
through Sunday, but there are large differences between the model
solutions that far out.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 851 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected through at least this evening, with
just mid level clouds impacting the region. Winds will weaken
through mid day, before turning southwesterly by late afternoon
and increasingly slightly.

Increased moisture will lead to low clouds and potentially some
fog very late tonight into the morning hours on Monday. These
low clouds will move in from the south, building north with time
on Monday morning. Though confidence is high that IFR
conditions will develop across the region on Monday, the exact
timing is still uncertain.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 336 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Northwesterly gusts between 25 and 30 kt will continue across the
open waters as gusts to 20 kt continue in the nearshore regions
through the early morning hours, diminishing after sunrise as
high pressure builds into the region. Expect southerly winds to
increase Monday as low pressure develops in the Middle
Mississippi Valley. Southerly winds will continue into Tuesday
as low pressure deepens over Minnesota. Tuesday night, a cold
front from this low will push eastward across the Lake as the
low continues to deepen, bringing westerly gales by Wednesday
morning. Westerly gales will become northwesterly Wednesday
night, continuing into Thursday morning before diminishing as
low pressure finally lifts northward into northern Quebec.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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