NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 140040
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
740 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 40-60 percent chances for showers toward the IL border tnt
  with slight chances for thunderstorms over the MKE metro area
  and far srn WI this evening.

- Below normal temperatures for early next week.

- Next chances for thunderstorms develop Tuesday and Wednesday
  next week. Too early to tell intensity, but monitoring for
  potential stronger storms.

- Active weather pattern continues into next weekend.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 740 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Lowered rain chances for tonight. Cumulus development along the
diffuse cold front over the MKE metro area has actually
increased but a lack of vertical depth remains. There is
however isold shower development along this boundary over nw
IL. Will maintain only slight chances for thunder this evening
with the passage of the weak cold front.

Otherwise decaying and high based showers are attempting to
move across Lafayette and Green Counties but there is no ground
truth at this time. Weak 850-700 mb frontogenesis will continue
across far srn WI much of the night as the upstream shortwave
trough over the Dakotas does not move across srn WI until after
12Z Sun. Any showers that do occur will likely be high based and
relatively light. Nwly sfc winds and cold advection will
increase after midnight as the upper wave approaches from the
west with cold advection continuing into the early afternoon.
Broken stratocumulus is expected to develop by late morning and
last into mid afternoon. Thus high temps only in the upper 60s
are forecast.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Tonight through Sunday night:

A cold front is currently draped from southwestern Wisconsin to
northeast Wisconsin. This front is expected to gradually move
southeastward through this evening, triggering scattered showers
and thunderstorms (40-60% coverage). Ahead of the front, isolated
showers (~20% coverage) and southwest winds gusting up to 35 mph
are expected. Excess cloud cover from an early morning MCS in Iowa
has prevented instability from rising to levels necessary for
widespread storms this afternoon and evening, but still expecting
scattered activity, especially in southeastern Wisconsin outside
of the morning subsidence zone. The main hazard is expected to be
lightning, but an isolated storm may become strong to severe with
gusty to damaging winds and small hail. Storms will weaken around
sunset, with the front stalling out near the Wisconsin/Illinois
border between 9 and 11 PM CDT. Showers will increase in coverage
as the front stalls (60-80%), with isolated embedded
thunderstorms. This activity will generally remain along and south
of the I-94 corridor, with some CAMs still indicating that the
front will stall south of the WI/IL border and produce only
scattered light showers. Regardless, rain will taper off by
Sunday morning.

Drying and clearing conditions expected Sunday, with gusty
northwest winds bringing in cooler temperatures in the upper 60s
to low 70s. Overnight, expect light westerly winds and lows in the
low 50s.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Monday through Saturday:

Dry conditions are expected to persist through Monday under a weak
ridge of high pressure, while a shortwave propagates through the
northern Plains. This shortwave will turn winds to southwesterly
and bring in thunderstorm chances by Tuesday. Morning convection
may prevent destabilization and therefore strong to severe
chances, but southern Wisconsin looks to be firmly within the warm
sector so cannot rule it out at this point. The cold front from
this system pushes through Tuesday night, bringing widespread
storm potential (70-85%).

Cold front looks to stall south of the Wisconsin border Tuesday
night, phasing with an incoming shortwave's warm front and
deepening the incoming wave. Models indicate that this system will
deepen a surface low rapidly, bringing additional widespread rain
to southern Wisconsin on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The exact
placement of this system is still dependent on the Tuesday
activity, but it is certainly a timeframe to keep an eye on as we
enter the work week.

Active weather pattern looks to continue through the end of the
week, with multiple shortwaves progressing southeastward through
the Upper Midwest. Best chances for additional storms arrive
Friday into Saturday, which are currently output on the NBM as
20-30%. However, these PoPs are based on timing differences and
confidence is high in periods of thunderstorms within the
timeframe given.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 740 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions tnt-Sun nt but scattered showers are forecast
tnt along with slight chances for thunderstorms. Any
precipitation that does form will likely have high cloud bases.
Bkn040 stratocumulus to then develop for late Sun AM and last
for much of the afternoon.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Low pressure around 29.3 inches lingers in the Hudson Bay,
allowing for continued gusty southwest winds through this evening.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for southern Wisconsin
nearshore waters for these gusty winds. This evening into
tonight, a cold front from this system will shift winds to
northwesterly and bringing isolated thunderstorms. Northwest
winds continue through Sunday, becoming light and variable
Sunday night as high pressure around 30.1 inches builds in the
central Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley. Winds then shift
southwesterly on Monday as high pressure slides southward and
low pressure of 29.7 inches progresses southeastward through the
northern Plains. Low pressure crosses Lake Michigan on Tuesday,
with strong southwesterly winds to the south of the low.
Thunderstorms are possible once again. Wednesday, an additional
low pressure system will progress eastward into the Upper
Midwest, bringing gusty southeasterly winds and perhaps some
gales to the southern third. This low is also expected to cross
Lake Michigan, bringing thunderstorms and gusty northwest winds
by the overnight hours.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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