NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 240550
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1150 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief burst of snow showers Tuesday afternoon with a cold
  frontal passage. This will likely affect the late afternoon
  and early evening commute. Some slick spots on roads may occur
  in the evening as temperatures drop below freezing.

- Snow chances continue to drop Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning, with the track of low pressure trending farther to
  the south.

- Warm and breezy conditions expected for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Overnight through Wednesday:

Middle to high clouds will push southeast through the area
overnight into Tuesday morning, with light winds becoming south
by daybreak. The pressure gradient will increase on Tuesday,
with gusty south winds in the morning developing and becoming
southwest in the afternoon. Warm air advection with these winds
should bring highs into the middle to upper 30s.

There should be a brief burst of snow showers that pushes
southeast through the area with the cold front in the afternoon,
with good differential CVA from a passing shortwave trough and
low to mid-level frontogenesis response with the front. A short
one to two hour window of snow showers in any one location is
anticipated as the front moves through the area. The better
moisture and upward motion in north/northeast parts of the area
should bring the highest snowfall amounts of one half to under
one inch, with lower amounts to the southwest.

This should affect the late afternoon and early evening
commute, so will continue to message this. There may be moisture
that freezes on roads into the evening after the snowfall ends,
which may bring some slick spots.

Skies should clear out Tuesday night into Wednesday, as high
pressure to the west moves into the region. Temperatures should
be more in the typical range for this time of year.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Wednesday night through Monday:

Ensembles and deterministic models have generally been taking
low pressure and an associated 500 mb shortwave trough Wednesday
night into Thursday further to the south of the area over the
past day or two. The NAM is much further north with its low
track and QPF field than the other deterministic models and
seems too far north. Given the southward trend, the banded snow
potential with mid-level frontogenesis response should remain in
northern Illinois as well.

Ensemble members have trended drier with measurable QPF in
southern portions of the area during this period, and it is
possible that the area may ultimately remain dry. For now, may
keep 20 to 30 percent chances for light snow in the forecast for
Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly in southwestern portions
of the area.

Ensembles continue to agree on a good warmup for Friday, as
south to southwest winds bring strong warm air advection into
the area. Highs should climb well above normal for Friday with
the gusty winds.

A strong cold front then should shift southeast through the
area Friday evening, with steady cold air advection on north to
northeast winds over the weekend. There remains some chances (20
to 30 percent) for snow Saturday, if some differential CVA can
work through the area with moisture. Ensemble members look to
have more dryness than measurable QPF, so uncertainty remains if
this period will see any precipitation.

Strong high pressure should shift southeast across the region
later in the weekend into Monday. This should bring a return to
more seasonable temperatures and relatively dry conditions.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Middle to high clouds will push southeast through the area
overnight into Tuesday morning, with light winds becoming south
by daybreak. Gusty south winds in the morning are expected to
develop and become southwest in the afternoon. Ceilings should
gradually lower into early afternoon.

There should be a brief burst of snow showers that pushes
southeast through the area with the cold front in the afternoon.
A short one to two hour window of snow showers in any one
location is anticipated as the front moves through the area.

The highest snowfall amounts of one half to under one inch are
anticipated toward Sheboygan and northeast portions of the area,
with lower amounts to the southwest. Ceilings of 2000 to 2500
feet AGL are expected with the snow showers, with visibility of
1 to 2 miles.

There may be moisture that freezes on runways into the evening
after the snowfall ends, which may bring some slick spots.

Skies should clear out Tuesday night into Wednesday, as high
pressure to the west moves into the region. Gusty west northwest
winds Tuesday night should linger into Wednesday.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1150 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Light winds are expected overnight across Lake Michigan, as
high pressure around 30.4 inches moves east across the region.

South gales are then expected to develop late Tuesday morning
and become southwest in the afternoon for all of Lake Michigan.
A Gale Warning is in effect for this time period. The gales will
develop as strengthening low pressure around 29.3 inches tracks
from northern Minnesota Tuesday through the northern Great
Lakes Tuesday night.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through middle morning on
Wednesday for the nearshore waters, for gusty winds and building
waves.

Winds will shift more west northwest behind the low and
associated cold front for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds
will remain brisk but under gale force. High pressure around
30.1 inches will then move into the region Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing lighter winds. Gusty south to southwest winds
are then anticipated for Friday.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 AM Tuesday
     to 6 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM
     Tuesday to 10 AM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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