NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 101116
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
616 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog possible into early this morning across all
  of southern Wisconsin, with the most widespread fog potential
  near Lake Michigan.

- Isolated thunderstorms (10-20% coverage) this afternoon in
  southwestern Wisconsin.

- Hot and muggy conditions return early next week.

- Next chances for storms develops late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 610 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Largely quiet today with some pop up storms to the west likely
far enough west to be out of the CWA where the better convergence
will line up but it will be worth monitoring.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Today through Sunday night:

Calm winds with temperatures near dewpoints in the upper 60s will
allow for widespread fog (2-5 SM visibility) before sunrise
this morning. A few areas will see dense fog, especially in low-
lying areas and near Lake Michigan where a marine layer may
enhance low-level moisture. Fog will lift shortly after sunrise.

High pressure will settle into Ontario today, keeping winds
northeasterly off Lake Michigan and keeping temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s in much of southern Wisconsin. Farther west,
expect highs in the mid-80s. A convergence zone may develop during
the afternoon hours in southwestern Wisconsin, firing off isolated
showers/storms (10-20% coverage) in a ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE
environment. Not anticipating severe with plenty of dry air
between 850 and 300 mb and minimal shear indicating the majority
of showers will struggle to maintain updrafts. Any shower
activity will taper off into the evening hours, with calm winds
and temperatures in the low 60s overnight. Patchy fog is
possible once again, but will not be as widespread due to
northeast winds bringing in lower dewpoints. Mainly concerned
about low lying areas.

High pressure remains in place through the weekend, with light
northeasterly winds expected throughout Saturday. This will lead
to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in southeastern Wisconsin and
in the mid 80s in south-central to southwestern Wisconsin. Dry
conditions are expected. Overnight, high pressure builds southward
into the Great Lakes region, bringing calm winds and a drier
airmass.

As high pressure settles over the region Sunday, expect light and
variable winds throughout the day and a lake breeze across
southeastern Wisconsin during the afternoon hours. Highs in the
low 80s are expected east of the Kettle Moraine, and in the mid to
upper 80s along and west of the Kettle Moraine. Lower humidity
levels will keep heat index values near the air temperatures.
Overnight, high pressure will slowly sag southward into the Ohio
Valley, but will keep winds light and yield lows in the mid-60s.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Monday through Friday:

As high pressure continues to sink southward, winds shift
southwesterly into Monday, bringing highs in the upper 80s to low
90s. Heat index values will remain in the low 90s due to continued
lower dewpoints. With winds remaining light, a lake breeze may
develop in the afternoon hours Monday, bringing some relief to
lakeshore counties.

Westerly winds become steady into Tuesday, bringing continued
highs in the 90s, and keeping the lake breeze offshore and
bringing highs all the way to the lakeshore. Heat index values in
the mid-90s are expected.

Low pressure begins to develop in the northern Plains into
midweek, bringing continued southwesterly to westerly flow and
continued highs in the 90s through Wednesday. Warm frontogenesis
develops over Wisconsin into late week, bringing the next chances
for precipitation (15-30%) and therefore also keeping temperatures
slightly lower in the mid to upper 80s. With this frontogenesis
region setting up over the ridging pattern, may lead to ridge-
riding MCSs during the late week period and therefore an increased
chance for severe weather. However, too early to call for exact
impacts.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 615 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Largely quiet conditions today with modest east to northeast
winds. The is some patchy fog and MVFR CIGS this morning but
those will dissipate over the next hour or so this morning
leaving a partly cloudy day the rest of the day with no
concerns.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Light northerly winds and patchy fog are expected through this
morning, shifting to northeasterly as high pressure around 30.1
inches builds over Ontario. High pressure slowly builds
southward through the weekend, allowing for light and variable
winds shifting to southwesterly by Monday. Low pressure around
29.8 inches will deepen in the northern Plains Monday into
Tuesday, allowing for increasing southwesterly winds. A cold
front progresses through the lake on Wednesday from a Hudson Bay
low, turning winds northwesterly.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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