NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 080025
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
725 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of light rain and light snow is forecast overnight (40
  to 70 percent chances) in srn WI with some light freezing rain
  mixed in over areas mainly near and north of Madison. Any
  light ice accumulation would be on elevated surfaces.

- Milder temperatures return on Wednesday, with widespread
  showers (70-90 percent) forecast Wednesday night with the
  cold frontal passage. A few rumbles of thunder possible.

- Another round of showers with a few storms (50 to 80 percent)
  should occur Thursday night, followed by an active weather
  pattern of warmer temperatures and more showers and storms
  Sunday into Monday.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 725 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

For tnt a weak wave of low pressure will move ewd across SD and
NE while a stronger low pressure area to the north will track
into srn Manitoba. This will send a strong swly LLJ toward srn
WI.

Mixed precipitation is on track toward midnight sw of Madison
then overspreading srn WI into the early morning hours. Despite
the current dry air mass over the region, the nose of a swly
40-50 kt low level jet and associated thetae advection and
frontogenesis, will bring PWATs of 0.70 inches into the region.
A decent surge of lift will accompany these features with all
but far se WI to likely see light mixed precipitation. Sfc
temps will initially be around the freezing mark then gradually
warming through the early morning. Thus 2-3 hours of light
freezing rain is likely from Madison toward central WI due to a
warm layer aloft. However, road temps should remain above
freezing so only a glaze of ice is expected on elevated
surfaces, that would be promptly melt toward sunrise.

Breezy sly winds and strong warm advection will then boost temps
into the middle to upper 60s for Wed afternoon as the low
pressure area tracks into Ontario. PWATs will increase to 1
inch for Wed evening and overnight when the cold front will
pass. Strong low level frontogenesis is depicted with the front
including widespread showers and expected rainfall of 0.25-0.50
inches.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 120 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

Tonight, on the backside of the high pressure with low pressure
across the upper Central Plains, expect a system to push through
overnight into Wednesday morning. The system will be dominated
by a weak upper level shortwave with strong low to mid level WAA
with plenty of moisture in the mid to upper levels. Thus precip
appears likely across much of southern WI for a period overnight
into Wednesday morning. This appears likely to start pushing in
around midnight. Moisture in the low levels will be the biggest
detriment to any precip as areas, particularly to the east
(closer to the high pressure), where the low level dry air may
be substantial enough to limit the precip potential. However, it
is generally expected to bring some precip to most of southern
WI. The question then becomes what precip should we expect.

Given cooler temps aloft as this system initially pushes in the
very front of the system may in fact be light snow, but given
the WAA aloft a fairly significant warm nose will develop. While
WAA aloft will create a warm nose the general WAA at the surface
will raise temps at the surface to around or just above
freezing. Toward central WI this may bring a period of freezing
rain given cooler surface temps but given warmer conditions and
lighter rain ice accumulations would be light and likely only on
elevated surfaces. Elsewhere, temps at the surface will likely
warm up above freezing making this largely just a rain event for
most of the CWA. Precip will likely push out by around mid
morning with clearing skies in to the day Wednesday.

The developing low out to the west will begin to push in
Wednesday afternoon with the base of the low around the
central US/Canada border. This low will drag a cold front
through the region Wednesday evening/night with plenty of
support from the a shortwave aloft as well. Precip may begin as
early as the late afternoon with precip ahead of the front but
the majority of it will occur Wed evening into the overnight
hours primarily along the front. A tiny bit of instability may
yield a rumble of thunder or two but for the most part this is
expected to be moderate rain showers for a few hours in any
given area with rain pushing out by Thursday morning.

With the front out of the area Thursday morning expect higher
pressure to push in behind it, though this will be fairly short
lived. Thursday during the day is expected to remain dry but by
Thursday evening expect a warm front to lift north into the area
based from a weak low pressure developing in lee of the Rockies
into the central Plains. A shortwave aloft, strong WAA on the
nose of the LLJ in the low to mid levels with a moist column
suggest a very high chance for precip Thursday night with a slug
of rain expected. The best chances (75+%) will be for the
southern portions of the CWA with lesser chances (40-70%)
toward central WI. Thunder looks unlikely given the profiles
suggesting very limited instability but we cannot rule out a
rumble of thunder, especially if the warm front lifts any
farther north than currently expected. Precip will generally
push out sometime Friday morning as high pressure nudges in
from the northwest, shoving the front back to the south. High
pressure will continue to push east but will strengthen into
the central Great Lakes region keeping us dry. East wind off the
lake from the high pressure will keep us fairly cool, however.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 120 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Saturday through Tuesday:

High pressure is expected to bring quiet weather through the
daytime hours Saturday. High clouds will likely increase during
the day as the high begins to exit to the east, with light
southeast winds also expected on the back side of the high. High
temps will be a couple to few degrees above normal under the light
southerly low level flow, mildest in the west away from Lake
Michigan.

Southerly low level flow will continue Saturday night through at
least Monday per 12Z models, which will result in even milder
conditions late weekend into early next week. Highs into the low
to mid 70s are likely for Sunday and Monday. Additionally, expect periods
of warm advection aloft and increasing moisture as a couple of
shortwaves roll through. This will bring multiple rounds of
shower/storm chances Sat night through Monday. Could see some
stronger storms Monday or Monday night as the low and associated
cold front move through, though confidence in low
strength/timing/placement is not high at this time given variations
among the latest model solutions. Plus, this period is several
days out, so plenty of time for the finer details to change.

Kept precip chances going Tuesday as the low slowly exits the
region, with cooler temps arriving on the back side of the low for
mid-week.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 725 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Light snow, rain, and freezing rain is expected late this
evening into the overnight for much of srn WI with much of the
freezing rain from Madison north toward central WI. Areas of
MVFR Cigs and Vsbys will likely occur with the precipitation.
The precipitation will end from west to east around 10-14Z Wed.
Breezy sly winds will then prevail on Wed but a few hours of
LLWS may occur over south central WI before the mixing ensues.
Widespread LLWS is then expected Wed nt along with widespread
showers with the passage of a cold front. Areas of MVFR Cigs and
Vsbys can be expected with the rainfall.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 120 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

High pressure around 30.6 inches has moved across central Lake
Michigan lowering winds generally across the lake. Low pressure
around 29.5 inches will then track along the Northern
Plains/Canadian border tonight and Wednesday, then track north
of Lake Superior Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This
will result in breezy southerly winds over Lake Michigan on
Wednesday with gale force gusts up to 40 kt. A Gale Warning is
in effect for the northern three quarters of the lake. A Gale
Warning is also in effect for a period Wednesday for the
northern nearshore zone with the rest of the nearshore in a
Small Craft Advisory.

Much weaker north winds will then take hold by Thursday
afternoon into Friday as high pressure around 30.4 inches slowly
moves through the region. Breezy southerly winds return toward
early next week as a stronger system pushes in from the west.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...4 AM Wednesday to 9 AM
     Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643...9 AM Wednesday to 7 PM Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
     LMZ874...7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Wednesday
     to 4 AM Thursday.

&&

$$

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