NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 210842
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
242 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures several degrees above normal this weekend into
  early next week.

- 70-85 percent chance of rain Monday night/Tuesday as multiple
  systems progress eastward though southern Wisconsin.

- Below normal temperatures move in Thanksgiving Day onward as a
  cold air mass moves in from Canada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 242 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today through Saturday:

Cloud cover and remaining fog has begun to exit the region, with
expectations for only scattered cloud cover going into the late
morning/afternoon hours. Temperatures will rise into the upper
40s early this afternoon, with steady northwesterly winds
ushering in colder temperatures through the afternoon and
evening hours. Expect lows in the low 20s in most regions, and
in the upper 20s to near freezing near Lake Michigan. High
pressure moves in Saturday, with partly cloudy skies and a
return to southwesterly winds from low pressure to the north.
Expect highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 242 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Saturday night through Thursday:

The weather will remain quiet with mostly clear skies and light
winds Saturday night through Sunday night as high pressure drifts
across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Expect a gradual warming
trend, with highs rising into the mid 50s Sun-Tue which is around
8 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A closed upper low over the Four Corners region Sunday evening is
expected to weaken as it reaches the Midwest Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, an upper trough originating from the Pacific Northwest
will amplify as it crosses the Northern Plains. The two systems
should phase, but to what extent and where is still in question.

It looks likely (70-85%) that a period of light rain associated
with broad ascent from warm air advection will affect all of
Wisconsin Monday night. The occluding system will usher in cooler
air behind it, but depending on the time and degree of the
phasing, the colder air (850mb temps below 0C) may arrive as early
as Tuesday afternoon (00Z ECMWF) on gusty northwest winds or as
late as Wednesday morning (00z GFS) on brisk west winds. The
ensembles of these models reflect these timing differences as
well.

Colder air will roll into southern WI behind the front by Thursday
(Thanksgiving). Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s Thursday
and Friday, with lows in the teens Thursday night and Friday
night. There is another system on the horizon that will bring a
swath of snow to the Upper Midwest, but the timing and location of
it will depend on how this first (mid week) system plays out.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 242 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A few broken decks of MVFR stratus continue to slowly work their
ways southward through southern Wisconsin this morning. A few
pockets of fog at around 4 SM visibility also linger in far
southern Wisconsin, but expecting those remaining pockets to
burn off around sunrise. Scattered clouds around 2000 ft may
develop during the afternoon hours today, ending around sunset,
with VFR conditions expected throughout the overnight hours
tonight and through Saturday as well.

Light and variable winds early this morning will become light
and northwesterly around sunrise and continue throughout the
day. Late tonight, expect winds to become light and variable to
calm under high pressure. Going into Saturday morning, winds
will become southwesterly. Southwest winds will become gusty
around 15 to 20 kt Saturday afternoon.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 242 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Northwesterly winds continue through this evening as low
pressure lingers in the Hudson Bay and high pressure builds
into the northern Plains. High pressure builds overhead
overnight tonight into Saturday, bringing light and variable
winds. Saturday afternoon, expect breezy southwest winds to
develop as weak low pressure progresses through Lake Superior.
Winds shift northwesterly Saturday night into Sunday as this low
pressure system exits to the east and a cold front pushes
northwest to southeast across the Lake. High pressure returns
Sunday night into Monday for an additional period of light and
variable winds.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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