NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 052008
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (~40-60%) return this evening evening. Snow may
  mix in at times over central WI.

- Increasing potential for pop-up snow showers Monday afternoon
  & evening, especially over east central WI. Some PM commute
  impacts caused by visibility drops, and light slushy
  accumulations on roadways possible.

- Active pattern continues Tuesday night into next weekend, with
  multiple additional chances for mainly rain and a few
  thunderstorms. Some wet snow is possible Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 251 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

A weak front is expected to pass through the area late this
evening bringing chances for rain provided enough saturation is
reached through our dry low level. While forecast soundings
support mostly rain, there is a bit of CAPE aloft, which could
allow for isolated graupel or snow to mix in at times.

Following the front, breezy northwest winds will then linger
into tomorrow. Another cold front is expected to sink south
across the area, with the best convergence and lapse rates over
east central to southeast WI. Convective snow showers are
expected along the front and with deeper CAPE aloft, some brief
half inch per hour rates may occur with some of the stronger
snow showers, causing drops in visibility. Slushy accumulations
on roads may also occur, although how much accumulation actually
occurs on roads will be highly dependent upon pavement
temperatures. Peak timing will be toward the end of the evening
commute, with temperatures then dipping into the 20s following
the snow.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 301 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

Warm advection will drive another area of rain/snow over
central Wisconsin Tuesday night into Wednesday. Current NBM PoPs
range from 40 to 60%, with the highest PoPs in that range over
central WI. Rain may then continue north and west of Madison
through the day, with some thunderstorms becoming possible
Wednesday afternoon. With the surface warm advection,
temperatures are expected to rise into the low 60s. A cold front
will then pass Wednesday night, pushing rain east through the
area.

Rain chances then linger Thursday through Sunday as the cold
front then stalls over the eastern Corn Belt. While we'll
technically be on the cold side of this stationary boundary,
temperatures will stay mild in the mid 50s to low 60s.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 233 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Clouds increase tonight and decrease to MVFR as a front moves
through. Expect rain showers, with some very isolated potential
for snow to mix in over central to east central WI. MVFR cloud
cover will then linger into the first half of Monday, with
clouds then raising to VFR heights during the early afternoon.
Tomorrow late afternoon and evening, convective snow showers
look possible over eastern WI, which may cause brief dips in
visibility and slushy light accumulations, provided warm
pavement temperatures don't melt the snow on contact.

Winds will remain northerly to northwesterly and moderate
tonight into tomorrow.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 253 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Low pressure will drag a cold front over the lake tonight, with
winds becoming breezy and northwesterly into tomorrow. While
not widespread, a few gales may occur over the northern end of
the lake. Winds then taper on Tuesday as high pressure settles
into the Upper Great Lakes region.

Winds then quickly come around to southerly for Wednesday as
another low approaches, with southerly Gales looking possible
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.


CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM
     Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 PM
     Monday to 7 AM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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