NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 141540 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
940 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold and windy today; continued cold with chances (60-80%) for
  light accumulating snow tomorrow night.

- Cold temperatures continue into next week, with several
  additional chances for light snow showers.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 940 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Only a half inch or less of snow fell across southern WI this
morning, but it was enough to cause widespread travel impacts
for the morning commute. What seemed to happen is that the snow
fell on the warm roads, temperatures dropped rapidly behind the
front as the snow fell with a decent rate, and then traffic
caused additional melting and roads became very icy in the tire
tracks. Gusty winds also caused reduced visibility and is
exacerbating the icy road conditions. We issued a short- fused
winter weather advisory to handle it and that will expire at
10AM. The WI 511 page is showing improvement to the traffic
speeds now.

Light snow showers and flurries are lingering across southern
WI in the wake of the Arctic front and main area of snow. This
will taper off through early afternoon as drier air works into
the region. Temperatures have already dropped into the upper
teens to lower 20s and will remain there through the day. With
the 40 mph winds, the wind chill values will only be in the
single digits.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 239 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Today through Thursday Night:

The Arctic front is making quick progress southward early this
morning, and should sweep across all of southern Wisconsin by 8
or 9 AM. An area of mainly snow showers (though with a few
reports of rain right at onset) along and just behind the front
will progress southward as well. Not expecting any meaningful
accumulation from these snow showers, but rates may briefly be
moderate in nature, causing a few slick spots as well as reduced
visibility.

Temperatures will continue to fall through the mid morning
hours, with temperatures holding steady in the upper teens and
low 20s for a few hours, before falling again tonight. Northwest
winds will gust to around 30 MPH for much of the day, keeping
wind chills in the low single digits.

Once this morning's snow shower activity pushes south of the
area, that should be it for precipitation through tonight, with
any lake effect snow expected to remain offshore.

Winds will ease tonight as high pressure begins to push in from
the west. Look for lows to fall into the single digits under
clearing skies.

Temperatures will remain in the 20s for highs on Thursday, but
it will be much less windy. By late Thursday afternoon and
evening, warm advection ahead of the next shortwave should
provide sufficient lift to generate light precipitation across
the area, though there are some questions regarding the amount
of moisture that will be available. This will not only affect
the amount of QPF at the surface, but cloud ice issues may come
into play if the moisture is not sufficiently deep. For now
have snow in the forecast, with around a tenth of an inch of
liquid equivalent resulting in an inch to inch and a half of
snow. However, if the drier/more shallow moisture scenario plays
out, some freezing drizzle could mix in at times Thursday
evening.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 239 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

A persistent stretch of deep cyclonic flow aloft takes hold
Friday into next week. This will result in numerous shortwave
passages and associated potential for snow showers through the
weekend. Highs will briefly rebound into the low 30s on Friday,
but much colder air aloft arrives Saturday, continuing into next
week. This will favor highs in the teens and lows around zero
(potentially lower depending on snowpack). Heavy snow is not
expected during this period, but the scattered snow showers may
collectively generate an inch or two of fresh snow through the
weekend.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 940 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Ceilings are improving as snow showers taper off. Overall, cloud
bases are above 3000 ft outside of the narrow snow bands.
Northerly wind gusts up to 35 kt are expected through early
afternoon and then will start diminishing.

Lighter winds and mostly clear skies are expected tonight into
Thu morning, then southerly winds will develop in the afternoon.
Light snow is expected by early Thursday evening with light
accumulations.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 239 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

North gales to 40 knots are expected across the lake through the
the evening hours today. Moderate to occasionally heavy freezing
spray is also expected, particularly over the northern portion of
the lake.

By late tonight, high pressure around 30.3 inches will build into
the Plains, and eventually cross the Upper Great Lakes on
Thursday. Low pressure around 29.4 inches will cross Lake Superior
on Friday, and stall over the lower Great Lakes Saturday while
weakening to around 29.5 inches. Colder air on the back side of
the low will overspread Lake Michigan on gusty west winds on
Saturday and Sunday. Freezing spray will remain a concern given
the very cold temperatures.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
     WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 10 AM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until midnight
     Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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