NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 140839
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
239 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front will continue through the area this
  morning, with areas of moderate snow showers. Minor
  accumulations are expected.

- Cold and windy today; continued cold with chances (60-80%) for
  light accumulating snow tomorrow night.

- Cold temperatures continue into next week, with several
  additional chances for light snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 239 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Today through Thursday Night:

The Arctic front is making quick progress southward early this
morning, and should sweep across all of southern Wisconsin by 8
or 9 AM. An area of mainly snow showers (though with a few
reports of rain right at onset) along and just behind the front
will progress southward as well. Not expecting any meaningful
accumulation from these snow showers, but rates may briefly be
moderate in nature, causing a few slick spots as well as reduced
visibility.

Temperatures will continue to fall through the mid morning
hours, with temperatures holding steady in the upper teens and
low 20s for a few hours, before falling again tonight. Northwest
winds will gust to around 30 MPH for much of the day, keeping
wind chills in the low single digits.

Once this morning's snow shower activity pushes south of the
area, that should be it for precipitation through tonight, with
any lake effect snow expected to remain offshore.

Winds will ease tonight as high pressure begins to push in from
the west. Look for lows to fall into the single digits under
clearing skies.

Temperatures will remain in the 20s for highs on Thursday, but
it will be much less windy. By late Thursday afternoon and
evening, warm advection ahead of the next shortwave should
provide sufficient lift to generate light precipitation across
the area, though there are some questions regarding the amount
of moisture that will be available. This will not only affect
the amount of QPF at the surface, but cloud ice issues may come
into play if the moisture is not sufficiently deep. For now
have snow in the forecast, with around a tenth of an inch of
liquid equivalent resulting in an inch to inch and a half of
snow. However, if the drier/more shallow moisture scenario plays
out, some freezing drizzle could mix in at times Thursday
evening.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 239 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

A persistent stretch of deep cyclonic flow aloft takes hold
Friday into next week. This will result in numerous shortwave
passages and associated potential for snow showers through the
weekend. Highs will briefly rebound into the low 30s on Friday,
but much colder air aloft arrives Saturday, continuing into next
week. This will favor highs in the teens and lows around zero
(potentially lower depending on snowpack). Heavy snow is not
expected during this period, but the scattered snow showers may
collectively generate an inch or two of fresh snow through the
weekend.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 239 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Winds will become increasingly gusty from the northwest this
morning as a strong cold front moves through the area. An area
of snow showers along and just behind this front will impact the
terminals as well, particularly the eastern sites. Brief
reductions to IFR visibility is expected with any snow showers.

Snow showers will end from north to south this morning, with
conditions improving to VFR later this morning. Gusty northwest
winds will continue into this evening.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 239 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

North gales to 40 knots are expected across the lake through the
the evening hours today. Moderate to occasionally heavy freezing
spray is also expected, particularly over the northern portion of
the lake.

By late tonight, high pressure around 30.3 inches will build into
the Plains, and eventually cross the Upper Great Lakes on
Thursday. Low pressure around 29.4 inches will cross Lake Superior
on Friday, and stall over the lower Great Lakes Saturday while
weakening to around 29.5 inches. Colder air on the back side of
the low will overspread Lake Michigan on gusty west winds on
Saturday and Sunday. Freezing spray will remain a concern given
the very cold temperatures.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 AM
     Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 until
     midnight Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
     until midnight Thursday.

&&

$$

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