NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 142330
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
630 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hot and humid conditions continue through Wednesday with
   highs in the 90s and heat indices around 100F each afternoon
   for much of southern WI. A Heat Advisory continues this
   afternoon through Wednesday.

- WI DNR issued Air Quality Alert for all southern WI through
  Thursday for unhealthy to very unhealthy conditions.

- Wildfire smoke from across northern MN and northwestern
  Ontario is progged to push southward into southern WI as
  early as Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday
  contributing to unhealthy air quality as well as limiting
  temps by a few degrees.

- Shower and storm chances gradually increase for the end of
  the week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 630PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

No major changes to the forecast early this evening. Highs are
in the low to mid 90s across southern Wisconsin with clear
skies. The Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Temperatures tonight will only dip into the mid to low 70s
which along with dewpoint temps in the low 70s to upper 60s will
provide little relief to those without A/C.

Hot and humid conditions along with light winds, fog is expected
west of I-90 during the early morning hours, but will burn off by
the afternoon. The trend of high temperatures will continue into
Wednesday with temps reaching into the low to mid 90s throughout
most of the area with heat indices expected to be higher with some
regions being as high as the low 100s. There is a heat advisory
that is in effect until 8 PM on Wednesday to go along with these
heat indices. Wednesday night will see temperatures dip down into
the low 70s again with some regions on the eastern side of the
CWA expected to be lower with temps in the upper 60s.

As the jet pattern shift Wednesday to have a more northwest to
southeast orientation over the region, smoke from the
Canadian/Northern Minnesota wildfires may start to advect into
the region by Wednesday night.

Soergel/Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

Smoky conditions from the wildfires up in northern MN and
northwestern Ontario continue across southern WI Thursday as
northwesterly upper-level flow brings it down into our region as
a surface high pressure's subsidence mixes it down toward the
surface while the more easterly surface winds spreads it inland.
Both the 12z HRRR and RRFS favor this wildfire smoke reaching
the surface and potentially result in reduction of visibility
as well as poor air quality for portions of the area at least
through Thursday if not lingering into Friday. Additionally the
smoke may also contribute to slightly lower temps and may be a
factor along with more onshore easterly winds limiting an
extension of the current Heat Advisory for southern WI. Will
continue to monitor.

Otherwise, the upper-level ridge bringing the hotter temps to
southern WI begins to gradually flatten with the ridge axis
shifting back west Thursday through the weekend. As a result
temps are still looking not as hot, but still above normal
through the end of the week, but begin to hedge closer to normal
as a series of upper-level troughs develop and pass over the
region this weekend into early next week. With the pattern shift
expect to see periodic shower and storm chances.

First opportunity will be for isolated showers and storms on
Thursday as hot and humid airmass lingers and with any forcing
may be enough to trigger a few isolated pop-up showers and
storms. However, with the wildfire smoke and upper-level ridging
continuing, the chances remain lower (<30%) at this time. The
next opportunity is Friday as influence from the ridge lessens
while low-level WAA along with a surface warm front extending
across the area from a developing surface low be the focus for
development. Better chances this weekend will be as the
aforementioned surface tracks from the northern Plains across
the Upper Midwest dragging a cold front through the area. This
will also bring cooler airmass for southern WI for Sunday. Then
long range models prog another trough to develop and swing
across the region for the start of next week bringing additional
shower/storm chances along with an even cooler airmass. As
supported by CPC day 6-10 Day outlook, there is a trend to even
see below normal temps through the firs half of next week behind
this early week system.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 630PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Largely VFR conditions expected through the period for southern
Wisconsin. The small chance for MVFR visibilities will be with
any fog the develops overnight into early Wednesday morning. Fog
if it develops would be for areas west of I-90 and any fog that
does develop should burn off shortly after sunrise Wednesday
morning. Otherwise clears skies are expected through the period.
Wildfire smoke will be the next hazard to keep an eye on heading
into late Wednesday into Thursday. Canadian/Northern Minnesota
wildfires may bring lower ceilings and visibilities starting
Wednesday for Sheboygan (SBM). This should move south with time
toward Milwaukee(MKE) and other terminals.

Light west winds will become northwesterly Wednesday then light
and variable Thursday. A lake breeze is expected to move inland
Wednesday afternoon/evening which will turn winds to easterly
overtime.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

High pressure over the Midwest and Great Lakes region will
continue to bring dry and warm westerly winds across Lake
Michigan through Wednesday morning. A weak area of low pressure
will gradually work its way across Lake Superior and down
across Lake Michigan through the day Wednesday pushing the high
pressure out and bringing a northeasterly wind shift across the
Lake later Wednesday into Thursday. Will see lighter winds on
Thursday as high pressure briefly builds back in before
influence from a low pressure developing over the northern
Plains push eastward through the weekend bringing more
southwesterly flow. As a result a cold front will drag across
the Lake resulting in northerly wind shift toward the end of the
weekend. Additionally will see periodic shower and thunderstorm
chances across the lake for the end of the week through the
weekend.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 8 PM
     Wednesday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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