NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 272017
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
317 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A backdoor cold front will pass from mid afternoon into the
  early evening with 20-40 percent chances for showers and
  storms. An isolated storm may produce gusty to damaging winds,
  but the potential for damaging winds is low (1 out of 5 on the
  SPC risk scale).

- A High Swim Risk and Beach Hazard Statement is in effect
  tonight into early Thursday afternoon due to dangerous
  currents from onshore winds and high waves.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight into early
  Thursday afternoon due to persistent northeast winds and high
  waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

A backdoor cold front will sag southwestward through the region
between 5 PM and 9 PM CDT, with isolated to scattered rain and
storms along the front during this time frame. The frontal
boundary will become enhanced by the cold Lake Michigan waters,
allowing it to press inland rapidly this evening into CAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg. There is a potential for low-level CIN to build
into the area ahead of the front as temperatures begin to cool
this evening, which could inhibit shower and storm development.
That being said, almost all meso models do show a cluster of
storms developing along the front, and a few of these have
already begun to develop in northern Wisconsin. If the front
moves faster than the developing CIN, we likely see a broken
line of gusty showers moving northeast to southwest. A few cells
that grow tall enough may become capable of producing damaging
winds, but the potential is low at this time. SPC has a marginal
risk across just central Wisconsin for this potential.

Any lingering thunderstorms will taper off into the overnight
hours, becoming light showers then ending completely by
midnight. Northeasterly winds are expected behind the front,
gusting 20-25 mph and bringing lows in the mid to low 50s. A
Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for rising waves and
dangerous currents along the Lake Michigan shoreline tonight
into Thursday morning. Stay out of the water, and away from
dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls!

Dry conditions continue through Thursday, with northeasterly
winds expected throughout the day. Gusts to 20 mph will linger
near Lake Michigan into far southern Wisconsin, with all winds
gradually diminishing overnight. With northeast winds off the
lake, expecting lower high temperatures in the 70s to perhaps
80 degrees inland, and in the mid to upper 60s east of the
Kettle Moraine. Overnight Thursday, lows in the upper 40s are
expected.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

High pressure will keep winds light and allow temperatures to
rise back into the 80s in most places on Friday, with highs in
the low 70s along the Lake Michigan shoreline as a lake breeze
develops in the afternoon hours. Friday night, an additional
backdoor cold front will sweep southwestward, bringing a very
low chance of showers (NAM with a known moisture bias being the
core model showing shower development) to central Wisconsin
overnight. Expect lows in the mid 50s.

Saturday, light easterly winds will keep southeastern Wisconsin
in the 70s, and will allow southwestern Wisconsin to rise into
the 80s. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and allow
for light winds and plenty of cooling overnight into the low 50s
to upper 40s. Sunday will see highs similar to Saturday as high
pressure lingers across the region, with continued dry
conditions through the day. As high pressure migrates southward,
an additional back door cold front will bring the next low
chances (~15%) for showers and storms Sunday night into Monday
morning. An isolated shower or two may linger into Monday.

Tuesday, low pressure develops in the central High Plains and
brings in southeasterly winds by Wednesday, bringing
temperatures back up into the 80s on Wednesday. Chances for rain
and storms may develop again into Wednesday as low pressure
begins to eject.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout tonight into Thursday.
Expecting a line of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
evening into tonight along a line roughly from SBM to MSN to
PVB. These storms may bring very brief drops in visibility and
ceilings as well as gusty, erratic winds. However, storms will
be short-lived and followed immediately by northeast winds
gusting around 25 kt through the remainder of tonight. Winds
will remain northeast throughout the overnight hours into
Wednesday, gradually diminishing through the day Wednesday.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

High pressure around 30.3 inches will continue to build
southward into the Great Lakes this evening through tonight,
bringing a cold front southward through tonight. Behind this
front, gusty northerly winds will produce waves and winds
hazardous to small craft in nearshore waters, with gusts around
25 kt expected. Winds will gradually diminish through Thursday,
with hazardous conditions diminishing midday. High pressure
remains in place through the weekend, with a few additional weak
cold fronts bringing brisk northeasterly winds Friday night and
Sunday night. High pressure generally remains in place through
early next week, with light and variable winds expected.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-
     WIZ072...7 PM Wednesday to 1 PM Thursday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM
     Wednesday to 1 PM Thursday.

&&

$$

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