NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 221203
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
603 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow/light snow showers/flurries are expected on and off
  into Sunday morning, with little to no snow accumulations.

- Gusty northwest winds by early Sunday evening into Monday
  morning are expected, with a Gale Warning now in effect over
  the southern two thirds of Lake Michigan.

- Light snow chances are increasing for Tuesday into Tuesday
  evening (30 to 60 percent chances, highest north), with
  accumulations generally under an inch.

- Accumulating snow may occur Wednesday night into Thursday (30
  to 40-plus percent chances at this time).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 600 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

No major changes to the forecast as we have seen some very light
accumulations early this morning but for the most part flurries
continue with pockets of light snow. No more than a few tenths
of accumulation expected. This expected to continue this
morning and lingering into the afternoon further east before
this pushes out. For the most part we expect visibilities to
remain above 6SM but some pockets of lower visibilities in
light snow will be possible. Otherwise some breezy northwest
winds expected today has strong high pressure pushes in from the
north.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Overnight through Monday:

A broad area of light snow/light snow showers/flurries are
expected to linger on and off into Sunday morning, as
differential CVA pushes through the area within cyclonic flow
aloft. Forecast soundings are showing a saturated low level
profile within the dendrite snow growth zone, and this area may
deepen overnight into Sunday morning. Thus, will continue the
mention of this light precipitation with higher-end PoPs (70
percent or higher) during this time. The gusty northwest winds
should allow for little to no snow accumulations, as the dry,
fluffy snow character continues.

Clouds should linger into Sunday as well, before drier air works
into the area in the lower levels Sunday night to bring some
scattering out of these clouds. High pressure moving into the
region Monday should bring more sun and lighter winds. Highs
should remain steady in the middle 20s into Sunday, with similar
values for Monday. Lows Sunday night should drop into the teens.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Monday night through Saturday:

West northwest flow at 500 mb should persist across the region
into the middle of the week. The first clipper system should
push through the area either later Tuesday or Tuesday evening,
with a fairly well-organized 500 mb shortwave trough. A surface
low should shift southeast through the region, tracking to the
north of the area. Some focused warm air advection Tuesday
afternoon, along with the differential CVA with the shortwave
trough passage and some low level frontogenesis response, should
combine to bring increasing chances (30 to 60-plus percent) of
light snow to the area.

The best chances would be in northern and northeastern portions
of the area, where ensemble members have the most members with
measurable QPF. Light snow accumulations under an inch are
possible, depending on the exact track of this system.

There should be a brief break after the first clipper system
moves out of the area either later Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning and into Wednesday evening. Then, another clipper/low
pressure system should shift to the south of the region later
Wednesday night into Thursday, with the associated 500 mb
shortwave trough. The track of this system may still clip the
area on its northern extent, with several ensemble members
showing measurable QPF in southern portions of the area.

There may be an area of mid-level frontogenesis response from
this system to bring banded precipitation during this time,
though it may be just south of the area. It would be close
enough to watch for its potential for accumulating snow as this
period draws closer. Continued to mention 30 to 40-plus percent
chances for precipitation for Wednesday night into Thursday.
Depending on how surface and low level temperatures are, there
may be some mixed precipitation early on during this period,
before becoming all light snow.

Ensembles then suggest a good warmup for Friday, as south to
southwest winds bring strong warm air advection into the area.
Highs should climb well above normal for Friday.

A strong cold front then may shift southeast through the area
Friday night, with robust cold air advection into next weekend
on northwest to north winds. This should bring a return to more
seasonable temperatures.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 600 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Light snow or flurries continue across much of southern WI with
pockets of snow enough to bring pockets of MVFR VSBYS. The snow
chances will gradually swing out of southern WI later today but
will persist across the east until the early evening. Otherwise
borderline MVFR/VFR CIGS early this morning which over the
course of the day will become predominantly MVFR. MVFR will then
clear out gradually overnight as skies clear overnight with
higher pressure pushing in.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Gusty northwest winds will continue overnight into Sunday, as
low pressure strengthens to around 29.3 inches off the mid-
Atlantic coast and strong high pressure over Manitoba builds to
around 31.1 inches.

As the high pushes eastward into Ontario Sunday night, expect
gales to develop across the southern two-thirds of the open
waters of Lake Michigan. A Gale Warning is now in effect Sunday
night into midday Monday. Moderate freezing spray is also
expected, with some heavy freezing spray possible in the central
third of the lake.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters
until early Monday evening, for gusty northwest winds and
building waves toward the open waters of Lake Michigan.

Winds will gradually diminish into Monday, as strong low
pressure around 28.7 inches moves toward Nova Scotia and high
pressure around 30.6 inches lingers over the western Great Lakes
region.

A modest south wind develops Tuesday, as the strong high
pressure system continues eastward and weak low pressure around
29.5 inches moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes. A
cold front from this low will turn winds northwesterly again
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM Sunday to noon Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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