NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 070514
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1214 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog are possible tonight, mainly from Madison to
  Janesville and west.

- A decaying area of thunderstorms may make it into southern
  Wisconsin Friday night.

- Additional rounds of storms may roll through southern WI late
  Saturday night and/or Sunday night into mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1213 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Tonight through Saturday:

An area of clouds continues to lift in from the south, most
likely resulting from weak temperature and moisture advection.
Not out of the question to see an isolated shower or two through
the overnight hours. Still looks like fog is possible later
tonight into early Friday, mainly in mostly clear areas north
and west of Madison. Quiet weather is then expected through the
day Friday, with warm and humid conditions under southerly
winds.

Showers and storms will be possible later Friday into Friday
night as low pressure passing by to the north drags a cold front
through the region. Models continue to suggest that the storms
will be weakening as they approach and/or enter the western
forecast area by mid evening. Kept some precip chances going
into the overnight hours as the weak front moves through, with
deeper moisture and some instability lingering.

Dry weather is likely Saturday as drier conditions move in
behind the front, with precipitable water values likely to drop
below an inch. Near normal high temps are expected for the
afternoon hours.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...

Issued 1213 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Saturday night through Thursday:

Additional rounds of storms will be possible later Saturday
night into the middle of next week as moisture lingers and a
couple more shortwaves move through. Timing of individual
rounds of storms is still a bit uncertain, but this does look
like a potentially active stretch given the open door to
shortwaves and the persistent deeper moisture and instability.
Temperatures will likely remain within a couple degrees of
normal through this period.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1213 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

An area of mainly VFR clouds continues to lift in from the
south. Not out of the question to see an isolated shower or two
through the overnight hours. Still looks like fog is possible
later tonight into early Friday, mainly in mostly clear areas
north and west of Madison. Could see a round of lower clouds in
these areas as well. Quiet weather is then expected through the
day Friday, with warm and humid conditions under southwest
winds. Winds will likely be more southerly near the lake and may
become southeast for a time.

Showers and storms will be possible later Friday into Friday
night as low pressure passing by to the north drags a cold front
through the region. Models continue to suggest that the storms
will be weakening as they approach and/or enter the western
forecast area by mid evening. Kept some precip chances going
into the overnight hours as the weak front moves through, with
deeper moisture and some instability lingering.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1213 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Light southerly winds tonight will increase by Friday afternoon
as a low pressure trough of 29.8 inches reaches Lake Superior.
Scattered showers and storms are possible Friday night as an
associated cold front crosses Lake Michigan. West to northwest
winds behind the front early Saturday will quickly return to
southerly by Saturday evening ahead of the next approaching low
pressure system. An unsettled weather pattern will set up over
the Upper Great Lakes next week where weak waves of low pressure
will cross the region and produce rounds of thunderstorms at
times.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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