NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 010817
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
217 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below zero wind chills linger through this morning.

- Light dusting to half an inch of snow possible this afternoon.

- Above normal temps are possible early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 215 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Today and Tonight:

We ring in the start of 2026 with sub-zero wind chills with
negative teens up across east-central WI through daybreak. These
brisk conditions gradually improve through the late morning
hours, but temps will remain on the chilly side for New Years
Day with highs only topping off in the mid/upper teens to around
20F toward Lake Michigan.

Otherwise with the prevailing upper-level northwest flow, another
ripple of mid-level vorticity is progged to work its way down
across southern WI today. Overall models have been slow to pick
up on this feature and is the weakest wave over the past couple
of days. However, there does look to be enough moisture with
another swath of Pacific moisture working its way into the
region aligning with a bit of low-level WAA for another dusting
to half an inch of snow through the day late morning into the
afternoon/early evening. Impacts look to be limited given the
minimal upper-level forcing competing not only with drier low-
level and subsidence from the building high pressure over the
region, but also given its quick moving nature. This light snow
activity exits the area to the southeast by 00z tonight.

Tonight will be drier with light winds and mostly clear conditions
as high pressure continues to build across the Upper Midwest.
Looking at single digit to low teens lows overnight.Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 215 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

High pressure continues to build down from the Dakotas and into
the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. Overall pattern favors
dry, but additional ripples aloft may bring additional snow
chances at times through the weekend. Latest 00z models show
hints of this on Saturday and potentially again on Sunday.

Otherwise influence for high pressure and cooler airmass prevails
into the end of the weekend before an upper-level ridge axis slides
east into the region. WPC cluster analysis favors the 500mb ridge
axis settling over the Midwest through the first half of next week.
Given the agreement in the long range models and prevailing nature
of this pattern for a few days, expect temps to trend above normal
temps. Then this milder pattern hints at breaking down and
accompanied by additional precip chances through the midweek.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 215 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the morning as high
pressure continues to works it way into the region. Will see
light northwesterly winds gradually increase to around 10-15kt
and turn more westerly through the day. Another quick round of
light snow is looking likely to move through southern WI late
this morning into the afternoon. Mainly expecting a dusting to
around half an inch of additional snow that may be accompanied
by brief lowering in ceilings and visibilities toward MVFR
levels. Otherwise, high pressure takes a firmer hold over the
area tonight with clearer conditions and lighter winds into
Friday.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 215 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Gusty northwesterly flow will continue across Lake Michigan
today along with moderate freezing spray concerns, especially
for east portions of the Lake. Will see winds turn more westerly
today and gradually weaken, but stay west-northwesterly into
Friday as high pressure works its way down from the Canadian
Prairies and into the Great Lakes region through the weekend.
Expect a southerly wind shift into the start of next week as the
high pressure slides east of the Great Lakes.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 AM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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