NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 241057
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
557 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few hours of light rain over se WI this morning then
  becoming mostly sunny and warm.

- Warm temperatures in the 80s for Mon-Wed.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 556 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

An area of light rain will shift across far se WI through 14-15Z
as a shortwave trough and sfc trough move across the region. The
heavier rain and most storms will remain over ne IL where deeper
low level moisture is present. Subsidence and drying behind the
upper wave will then bring clearing skies to srn WI later this
morning with a nice and warm day expected.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1259 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Overnight through Monday:

A weak cold front/convergence boundary should continue to shift
east through the area overnight into this morning. There is
some weak differential CVA aloft pushing into the area as well,
with some low level moisture and very weak instability.
Isolated to perhaps scattered showers (20 to 40 percent) should
shift east across the eastern half of the area with the
boundary into this morning before exiting. An isolated
thunderstorm may occur as well, with the very weak instability.

Light onshore winds overnight should allow for low status
clouds and fog to push onshore in the areas near Lake Michigan,
lingering into this morning before pushing back offshore. Patchy
dense fog may occur. There may be patchy fog further inland as
well.

Clouds should gradually push east of the area by midday today,
with a dry and pleasant day expected in the afternoon. Light to
modest west winds are expected inland, with a southeast lake
breeze developing in the afternoon near the lake. Highs today
should warm into the upper 70s over most inland areas, with
temperatures turning cooler near the lake in the afternoon.

There may be a few light showers that occur (around 20 percent
chances) later tonight into Monday in western portions of the
area, with some weak warm air advection and a low level jet that
transports in some modest moisture. Not confident in this
possibility, so kept chances for showers low at this time.

Otherwise, some middle to high clouds should move through the
area Monday. Warm highs into the middle 80s are expected with
increasing south to southwest winds. There may be a southeast
lake breeze later in the day near the lake.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1259 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Monday night through Saturday:

There may be a few light showers that occur (around 20 percent
chances) Monday night into Tuesday, as some weak warm air
advection and a low level jet that transports some moisture into
western portions of the area.

High pressure to the east should keep the area in warm air
advection on south to southwest winds Tuesday, with warm highs
into the middle to upper 80s. There may be a lake breeze in the
afternoon near the lake.

The Tuesday night into Saturday period is generally showing a
500 mb ridge axis developing over the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest per 500 mb cluster analysis for the coming week.
There are anomalous 500 mb heights expected over most of the
northern half of the country and into Canada during this
period. Ensemble means generally keep high pressure at the
surface over areas to the north of the region for the middle to
late portions of the week. This should result in above normal
temperatures for most of this period and relatively dry
conditions, which is supported by ensemble trends.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 556 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas of low stratus (600-1900 feet) and MVFR Vsbys over east
central WI until 15Z today. Light rain with areas of MVFR Vsbys
over se WI until 15Z today. Fog of 1/2SM in portions of the
Baraboo River and WI River Valleys until 13Z today. VFR
conditions then expected for all of srn WI from late this
morning into Mon AM.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 556 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A weak and dissipating trough of low pressure will slowly move
east across Lake Michigan this morning with weak high pressure
quickly following it. Winds will mainly remain light southerly
winds, but light and variable winds may occur at times over the
far southern basin of the lake. South winds will then continue
tonight, becoming a bit stronger for Monday and Tuesday as high
pressure moves to the lower Great Lakes.

Some fog may develop across the lake this morning and could linger
into tonight as mild and moist air flows over the cooler waters
of the lake.

A cold front may shift southward across the lake toward the
middle of the week, as high pressure around 30.3 inches builds
into James Bay.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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