NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 020413
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1113 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northeast winds will lead to high waves and dangerous
  currents at Lake Michigan beaches into tonight. A Beach
  Hazards Statement is in effect through 1 AM CDT tonight/Monday
  morning for all Lake Michigan beaches. Stay out of the water!

- Patchy fog expected early this morning and early Monday
  morning in southwestern Wisconsin. A few areas of locally
  dense fog are possible.

- Next chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night through Thursday.
  A few periods of severe storms are possible, but timing and
  impacts are not yet clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1113 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Today through Monday night:

High swim risk remains for Lake Michigan beaches across all of
southern Wisconsin through today, finally improving late tonight.
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 1 AM CDT. Stay out
of the water and away from dangerous areas like piers and
breakwalls!

An isolated thunderstorm or two lingers across southwestern
Wisconsin, exiting within the next few hours. Expecting
northeasterly winds to continue throughout the overnight hours,
with gusts up to 25 mph in Lake Michigan counties. Low clouds
and potentially some patchy fog expected early this morning,
with fog mainly in southwestern Wisconsin. Clouds will lift
after sunrise, scattering out midday onward. Expect highs in the
low 70s near Lake Michigan and the upper 70s inland.
Northeasterly winds will continue, with gusts around 15 mph
inland and around 25 mph along Lake Michigan.

Winds will gradually diminish overnight tonight, with light and
variable winds by early Monday morning. Expect overnight lows in
the 50s. Patchy fog is possible once again overnight.

Monday, light winds and patchy diurnal cumulus expected under high
pressure. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure remains
in place overnight, with lows in the 50s and light and variable
winds.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1113 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

Low pressure progressing through northern Ontario and low
pressure developing in the lee of the Colorado Rockies on
Tuesday will allow for broad frontogenesis to develop over the
Upper Midwest. Expecting the resultant cold front to work its
way southward through southern Wisconsin Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning (60% chances for thunderstorms, CAPE ~1500
J/kg). 0-6 km bulk shear remains marginal (under 35 kt) through
Wednesday morning, before westerly bulk shear builds to near 50
kt Wednesday afternoon. Depending on how long overnight
convection lingers, severe may be inhibited Wednesday due to
lack of instability. However, increasing shear and a front in
the region may allow for some severe potential Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Kept PoPs from the NBM due to this uncertainty,
with 30-60% chances throughout southern Wisconsin into
Wednesday night. Low pressure ejects into the Ohio Valley
Wednesday night.

As low pressure weakens and exits to the east on Thursday,
precipitation chances exit as well. High pressure briefly builds
back in Thursday into Friday, but with southern Wisconsin
remaining on the northern edges of the upper level ridge in a
more zonal pattern, may see additional rounds of thunderstorms
through the weekend. As ridging builds across the central Plains,
temperatures will also climb back into the mid-80s through the
weekend.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1113 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions will rapidly fall to IFR before sunrise this
morning as an area of low stratus develops. In southwestern
Wisconsin, patchy fog development is expected. With winds
remaining light and northeasterly in southwestern Wisconsin, not
expecting dense fog. However, a few isolated spots may fall below
1/2 SM in low lying areas. Low stratus will scatter out into
midday, with VFR conditions then expected throughout the afternoon
into the overnight hours. Winds will gust near 20 kt along Lake
Michigan terminals during the daylight hours, with gusts around 15
kt elsewhere. Winds become light and variable overnight, with a
few areas of patchy fog possible in low lying areas once again
into the early morning hours Monday.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1113 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Low pressure around 29.6 inches will continue to progress eastward
through the Ohio Valley through tonight, leading to continued
northeasterly winds throughout the day and into tonight. This
afternoon, an isolated gale and consistent gusts to 30 kt are
expected for the southern half, with lower winds to the north.
Winds will gradually diminish tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect through 1 AM CDT tonight/Monday morning. Expect high
pressure around 30.0 inches to build into the region for Monday
through Tuesday, bringing light and variable winds. Winds turn
light and southerly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as low
pressure pivots through the Hudson Bay, before a cold front brings
variable winds and thunderstorms back to the Lake late Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. A brief ridge of high pressure
returns for Thursday into Friday, with generally southerly winds
expected.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 1 AM Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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