NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 090451
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1151 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers tonight with clearing toward morning.

- Another round of showers with a few storms (60-90+ percent) is
  forecast Thursday night.

- An active weather pattern returns late this weekend into next
  week. Warm and humid conditions and more showers and storms
  are expected.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Today through Saturday:

Two distinct sw-ne bands of showers are prevalent over srn WI.
The initial band over far se WI is associated with warm, moist
advection in the low to mid level thermal ridge. The second band
from sw WI to the Fond du Lac area is associated with sfc-850 mb
frontogenesis. The cold front and rainfall will move esewd
through the early morning ending at MSN around 07Z and MKE
around 10Z.

Weak sfc ridging and a wly sfc flow can be expected for Thu with
cooler temps than Wed, but still on the mild side. A wave of low
pressure supported by a weak shortwave trough will then track
from the central Great Plains into far srn lower MI Thu nt.
PWATs of 0.75-1.00 inches will shift back north into the region.
Well organized 850-700 mb frontogenesis and the nose of a low
level jet near the IL border will support widespread showers
and a few rumbles of thunder during this time. 0.50-0.90 inches of
rain are forecast along and south of a line from Mineral Point to
Madison to Port Washington.

High pressure will then track from ern SD to the Upper MS River
Valley on Fri, then across srn WI Fri nt. The high will then
reach the Mid Atlantic States around 00Z Sun. Pleasant wx will
prevail with high temps Fri-Sat in the middle to upper 50s well
inland, with upper 40s at the Lake MI shoreline. The onset of
low to mid level warm, moist advection will bring 20-30 percent
chances for showers Sat afternoon over south central WI.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Saturday night through Wednesday:

This period will see a pattern change to swly flow aloft with
low pressure areas developing over the high plains and tracking
to the north or over srn WI. Relatively warm and humid air will
arrive for Sun-Tue with repeated rounds of showers and storms
from Sat nt-Tue. Showers may linger into Wed along with somewhat
cooler temps. Will be monitoring rivers for a possible return
of some flooding to some degree.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

LLWS will end from nw to se across srn WI during the early
morning hours as a swly 50 kt jet leaves the region. Widespread
showers will move across srn WI early this morning. A few hours
or so of rainfall is expected at any one location with a brief
period of MVFR Vsbys or Cigs possible. Clearing skies and much
lighter winds will then take hold mostly before sunrise and
continue through the day. However, widespread rainfall will
quickly return Thu evening into the overnight. MVFR Cigs and
Vsbys will develop with the rainfall including areas of Cigs
below 1 kft over far srn WI.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Low pressure around 29.7 inches just north of Lake Superior will
continue to James Bay by Thursday afternoon. This will result
in gales ending during the early morning hours of Thu over the
northern three quarters of the lake. A Small Craft Advisory from
Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor will also end at 4 AM CDT as winds
and waves diminish.

Much lighter westerly winds are then expected Thursday in the
wake of a cold front. Light and variable winds will prevail Friday
into Saturday, until breezy southerly winds return late in the
weekend.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
     LMZ874-LMZ876 until 4 AM Thursday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee