NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 081556
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
956 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is expected tonight, with accumulations of a trace
  to half an inch most places and up to an inch towards Fond du
  Lac and Sheboygan. Light freezing drizzle may develop after
  snow ends, continuing through the Tuesday morning commute
  before tapering off.

- A wintry mix is expected to develop Tuesday evening, with
  slick spots on area roads possible due to continued cold
  pavement temperatures. Wintry mix will transition to snow by
  Wednesday, with uncertainty remaining in total snowfall
  amounts.

- Additional rounds of snowfall are then possible through the
  end of the work week, but confidence in exact time frames is
  much lower.

- Below normal temperatures continue through next weekend, with
  wind chills as cold as -15 to -25 degrees by the end of the
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 957 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Temperatures will rise throughout today as winds kick to become
southerly, with highs in the low 20s expected. A few flurries
are currently ongoing across the area, with a layer of dry air
near the surface preventing the majority of snow seen on radar
from reaching the ground. Flurries will taper off into this
afternoon, with the next chances for snow still expected
overnight. Current forecast for snowfall overnight is on track.
However, model soundings are indicating continued lift after the
snow moves through while dry air works its way into the
dendritic growth zone and aloft. This indicates strong potential
for a period of freezing drizzle from the late overnight hours
tonight into the Tuesday morning commute before tapering off.
Only trace ice accretions are expected, but still may experience
slick conditions on area roads, especially untreated or elevated
ones.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Today and Tonight:

Light lake effect snow brushing lakeshore areas will lift
northward and gradually weaken towards daybreak, ending by mid-
morning. Dry weather is then expected the rest of the day as
high pressure overhead this morning heads eastward. Warm air
advection along with a weak shortwave will result in plenty of
clouds through the day, but moisture around 850 mb will be
limited. This should keep the bulk of any precip aloft from
reaching the ground. Wouldn't be surprised by a few flurries
though. Well below normal temps will persist today, as the
airmass aloft won't have warmed much by the end of the day and
clouds will also help to keep it chilly.

A second shortwave will move through tonight, bringing a better
chance for light snow to southern Wisconsin. Model soundings
show eventual saturation in the lower levels by early tonight,
with stronger warm air advection and frontogenesis expected than
with the first wave. The best chance for some light
accumulations will be across roughly the northeast half of the
forecast area towards the better lift. A blend of 00Z models
gives anywhere from a trace southwest of Madison to upwards of
an inch towards Fond du Lac and Sheboygan. Temps are expected
to gradually warm overnight given the strong warm air advection
and breezy south to southwest winds.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tuesday through Monday:

Dry weather will briefly return to the area Tuesday morning
between systems, before an even stronger low approaches from the
northwest in the afternoon, moving through overnight into early
Wednesday. Deterministic and ensemble model mean surface low
tracks continue to show the low moving through the northern
forecast area or just to the north. There is actually fairly
good agreement at the moment of low low track north to south
among ensemble members, with more of a spread west to east due
to timing differences. A consensus of the 00Z model tracks would
suggest snow most places initially Tuesday evening,
transitioning to rain central and southern portions of the
forecast area by midnight, and possibly remaining mainly snow in
the north. With this current expected track of the low, any
small variations north to the south will result in a change of
precip types and resultant potential snow accumulations. This
system is expected to bring at least a few inches of snow north
of the low, so future model runs and any variations in the track
are worth keeping an eye on.

Another concern with the Tuesday night precipitation will be
how quickly pavement temps will warm after this cold stretch.
Rain falling on bare pavement or more even snow covered pavement
(given the initial snow possibility) could make for slick roads
for a time if road temps are slow to respond to the warming
surface temps.

Lingering precip behind the low Wednesday morning should
transition to all snow as the colder air moves in behind the
low, with latest model showing the precip will exit by the
afternoon.

Colder temperatures will push into the region Wednesday night
through the end of the week, as multiple shortwaves move
through, possibly also bringing a little light snow at times.
By Saturday, high temperatures may not get out of the single
digits most places. Breezy westerly winds Friday night into
Saturday may result in wind chills as low as -25. Temps will
then slowly recover early next week, but will remain well below
normal.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 957 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Generally VFR conditions expected through this morning, with
lowering ceilings into MVFR this afternoon and evening as a weak
snow and freezing drizzle system moves in. IFR conditions will
dominate by late tonight and continue into Tuesday morning as
the steadiest precipitation falls. Ceilings will improve through
the morning into the afternoon Tuesday, with a brief return to
VFR Tuesday afternoon before the next system works its way in
from the west.

Winds will become southerly this afternoon, shifting to
southwesterly overnight and becoming gusty. Plenty of veering
in the lowest 2000 ft will lead to wind shear concerns through
the overnight hours as well. Winds shift to westerly briefly
Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon before returning to
westerly ahead of the next system.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Lighter winds this morning will pick up out of the south to
southwest this afternoon and continue to increase this evening,
as high pressure of 30.4 inches overhead this morning heads
eastward. Gale force gusts are expected later this evening
through tonight across the north half of the lake.

Low pressure of 29.2 inches will approach from the northern
Plains Tuesday, bringing increased southerly winds across the
south half of the lake by Tuesday night as the low moves through.
Winds will all shift to northwesterly as the low exits into
Wednesday, with gales possible in the southern half throughout
this time frame. Winds gradually diminish Wednesday night,
remaining west to northwest through the end of the week.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868...10 PM Monday to 6 AM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM
     Monday to noon Tuesday.

&&

$$

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