NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion
FXUS63 KMKX 150605
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
105 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect north of
Interstate 94 corridor, for 1 to 3 inches of snow and up to
one to two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation into this
morning. This advisory will then continue into the afternoon
over central Wisconsin, for continued light freezing rain
potential.
- The Winter Storm Watch for later today into Monday afternoon
has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for most of
southern Wisconsin, except for a Winter Weather Advisory for
far southeast Wisconsin. Near blizzard conditions are possible
later tonight into early Monday morning in the warning areas,
especially north and west of Madison.
- Thunderstorms capable of hail are possible this morning into
the afternoon, mainly along and south of a Lone Rock to Mequon
line.
- A Gale Warning, Storm Warning and Heavy Freezing Spray
Warning are now in effect for varying periods through Tuesday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 105 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Early This Morning through Monday:
The Winter Weather Advisory continues for the northern half of
the area into this afternoon. An area of light snow continues
within the 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis response and 700 mb
warm air advection. This area should continue to push northward
into this morning with more warm air advection, bringing light
snow that will mix with sleet and freezing rain to northern
portions of the area. May see snow accumulations of 1 to 3
inches in the far northern counties, with ice accumulations up
to one to two tenths of an inch, with lower amounts for the next
tier of counties to the south.
The Winter Storm Watch for later today into Monday afternoon
has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for most of southern
Wisconsin, except for a Winter Weather Advisory for far
southeast Wisconsin. Near-blizzard conditions are possible later
tonight into early Monday morning in the warning areas,
especially north and west of Madison.
There remains enough confidence from the latest model runs of
the deterministic models, CAMs and ensembles for the band of a
mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow to spread southeast across
the area later this afternoon into mid-evening. Timed the start
of the Warnings and Advisories with the arrival of this band,
starting at 4 PM CDT today in the northwest counties to 10 PM
CDT this evening in the far southeast counties. This will last
until 4 PM CDT Monday afternoon.
The main thing to watch will be the possibility of near-blizzard
conditions across the warning areas, especially north and west
of Madison. The combination of moderate to heavy snow rates with
the strong north winds gusting to 45 MPH at times may bring
visibility values down to or below one quarter mile at times.
The HRRR suggests the best potential for snowfall rates up to or
more than 1 inch per hour are later tonight into early Monday
morning, so this will likely be the most impactful period.
There is also the possibility of some sleet and freezing rain
accumulations to cause impacts, as it moves through the area
later this afternoon and evening. The advisory areas should see
lower snowfall amounts, which should reduce the impacts in
those areas. Still, the strong winds will bring some blowing and
drifting snow in these areas.
There may be blowing and drifting snow impacts that continue
through Monday afternoon, thus the Winter Storm Warning
continues until 4 PM CDT Monday.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 105 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Monday night through Saturday:
As low pressure exits into Ontario overnight Monday,
northwesterly blustery winds will continue. Expect northwesterly
winds around 30 MPH through the late overnight hours, falling
to 15 MPH by sunrise Tuesday. Overnight lows around 0 degrees F
are expected, with elevated winds leading to wind chills in the
negative teens in most areas (areas near Lake Michigan will
remain slightly warmer, with wind chills in the negative single
digits). Arctic high pressure dominates through Tuesday, but
with increasing sunshine and March sun angle, expect
temperatures to recover into the low 20s. Winds will shift to
southerly Tuesday afternoon as a clipper system progresses
through the northern Plains.
Tuesday night, a warm frontal feature from the northern Plains
low will lift northward through southern Wisconsin, bringing
warming temperatures through the overnight hours, but with
temperatures remaining below freezing (about 20 degrees by
daybreak, lows in the teens in the early overnight hours)
expecting mainly snow with precipitation along the warm front. A
few inches of snow are possible. Warm nose is present, but
model soundings still indicate consistently below freezing
temperatures, so not expecting mixed precipitation at this time.
Will continue to monitor trends with the next few runs.
Precipitation will exit into Wednesday morning as low pressure
pivots northeastward into northern Ontario. A brief period of
freezing rain is possible early Wednesday morning, but
confidence remains low. Southerly winds will continue, bringing
highs in the low 40s. A weak cold front from the parent low will
progress southeastward through southern Wisconsin Wednesday
night, and may produce a few snow showers (15 to 30 percent
chances) as temperatures fall into the low 30s.
Winds diminish under high pressure on Thursday, with highs in
the 40s. An additional clipper system traverses southern Canada
Thursday night, turning winds back to southerly through Friday
morning, bringing highs on Friday into the 50s. A cold front
from this system Friday afternoon and night will bring slight
chances for rain (about 15 percent) to central Wisconsin, and
will drop temperatures back to near freezing overnight.
High pressure dominates Saturday into Saturday night, with
additional systems developing to the north Sunday.
MH
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 105 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The band of light snow should continue to push northward across
northern portions of the area overnight into this morning,
bringing an area of light snow mixing with freezing rain and
sleet. This should impact Sheboygan at times. There may be some
light snow or rain that affects Madison, Waukesha and Milwaukee
overnight.
Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 miles with the light snow,
with ceilings down to 500 to 1500 feet AGL. Ceilings should
remain above 3000 feet AGL to the south of there overnight.
East southeast winds will increase overnight as well. Light
snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches may occur toward Sheboygan
this evening, with rates under one quarter inch per hour. There
may be light ice and sleet accumulations as well.
Mainly light rain is expected for terminals to the south
overnight into Sunday morning. Gusty east southeast winds
overnight will become a little lighter and more variable into
this morning, as the low pressure system approaches the area.
Ceilings should steadily drop to 500 to 800 feet AGL by midday
today, with visibility values dropping to 1 to 2 miles, lower
toward Sheboygan and central Wisconsin.
Precipitation will transition from light rain back to a mix of
rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow from west to east later
this afternoon, with moderate to heavy snow this evening into
Monday morning. Snowfall rates of up to one inch per hour are
possible, mainly west and north of Madison, with one quarter to
one half inch per hour rates elsewhere.
Winds will become north and gusty later this afternoon and
early this evening into early Monday morning. Blowing and
drifting snow is expected, with one mile or lower visibility at
times. May see visibility down to one quarter mile in the
heaviest snow bands. Ceilings will remain 500 to 800 feet AGL,
lower at times.
Wood
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 105 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Deepening low pressure of 29.4 inches over southeastern
Nebraska will swing northeastward through this morning into
southern Wisconsin, bringing easterly to southeasterly gales
across the lake this morning into midday.
As low pressure crosses southern Lake Michigan this evening,
winds will briefly lower across the southern two thirds, while
northerly storm force winds develop across the northern third.
Northerly storm force winds will spread southward through the
middle third of Lake Michigan, as low pressure deepens to 29.1
inches over Lower Michigan this evening, while gales continue
across the southern third.
Winds shift to northwesterly into Monday morning, with storm
force winds across the northern two thirds and gales across the
southern third through Monday evening. Expect winds to slowly
diminish as low pressure exits Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Heavy freezing spray is also expected to develop Monday
morning, as Arctic air pushes southward through the lake,
continuing through midday Tuesday. Winds then shift to
southeasterly ahead of an approaching weak low around 29.7
inches Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Heavy snow is expected across the northern half of the lake
throughout today, transitioning to sleet and freezing rain this
afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible across the southern
half of the lake this afternoon. Freezing rain and sleet will
then spread through the remainder of the lake overnight as
thunderstorms end, with a return to heavy snow into Monday
morning. Snow will taper off midday Monday.
MH
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058 until 4 PM Sunday.
Winter Storm Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ062...4 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday.
Winter Storm Warning...WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ063-WIZ064-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069...7 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday.
Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ059-WIZ060 until 10 AM Sunday.
Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-
WIZ072...10 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Tuesday.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4 AM Monday to 11 AM
Tuesday.
Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until 7 PM
Sunday.
Storm Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...7 PM Sunday
to 10 PM Monday.
Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Sunday to 1
AM Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM
Sunday.
&&
$$
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