NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 251743
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1243 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Moderate Swim Risk is forecast late this afternoon and
  evening for Lake MI beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties.

- A backdoor cold front Wednesday will bring gusty northeast
  winds behind it near the lake and much cooler temperatures.
  This front will also bring chances for showers and storms
  (around 20 to 50 percent) Wednesday afternoon/early evening.

- Dry for later this week into the weekend with above normal
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Tonight we will start to move into an upper level ridge setup
which will bring us very warm temperatures for Tuesday with
modest to breezy southwest flow on the backside of the surface
high. There will likely be some precip in the midwest region,
primarily focused along a warm front to the north, especially as
we move into Tuesday night as a developing high over the UP in
connection with a more pronounced high in central Canada will
turn the warm front into a southward moving backdoor cold front.

This backdoor cold front appears likely to be strong (pneumonia
front like in terms of impact?) rapidly pushing down the lake
into Wednesday. Models may not even be capturing how quickly
this may occur on Wednesday. While it should be expected to warm
up a bit ahead of this front if it comes through early enough
the warming may not be as substantial. In either case, we could
see quite a significant temperature drop behind the front. The
other piece of this is that depending on timing, this front
could trigger showers/storms during the day Wednesday. The issue
with precip chances is that the only forcing will be from the
front with no lift elsewhere given being in the base of the
ridge. The precip chances have increased for this period
however, given the strength of the front and enough low level
moisture to work with to bring about precip. Any storms with
this would be largely weak given the limited shear with the
ridge overhead but enough instability could allow for some
briefly strong storms likely quickly becoming outflow dominant.
Showers/storms may linger into the evening before the front
clears out as we lose instability into the evening.

A period of moderate swim risk conditions expected later this
afternoon through the evening primarily for Ozaukee and
Sheboygan counties with a risk for high swim risk conditions
Wednesday late afternoon through Wednesday night for all
nearshore counties.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Thursday through Monday:

Thursday and Friday remain in the same underlying pattern with
large scale ridging overhead and surface high pressure generally
overhead. Thursday has trended cooler due to the front coming
through Wednesday and Friday has trended toward producing
another backdoor cold front which is a bit uncertain still and
depends on progression of the surface high. This may introduce
some precip chances, though chances are uncertain at this time.
Into the weekend while the upper levels become potential more
active, though uncertain, the lack of moisture and the
likelihood of high pressure over the western Great Lakes
suggests it will likely remain dry through the weekend and
likely into early next week.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period with SCT to BKN mid to
upper level CIGS ongoing with pockets of showers possible,
primarily further west. Expect clearing toward the evening and
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies through Tuesday. Some
additional developing clouds to the north Tuesday night sagging
south into Wednesday with a backdoor cold front expected
Wednesday. This front may bring some showers and storms as well
as a stark wind shift from light and variable to modest to
breezy from the northeast. No MVFR CIGS expected with the
expected cloud cover at this time.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

High pressure around 30.2 inches will continue to drift east to
the eastern Great Lakes today. Fog has largely dissipated
across the lake. Modest southerly winds will continue tonight
into Tuesday, while high pressure around 30.3 inches is expected
to build toward eastern Hudson Bay Tuesday into Wednesday. This
will eventually move a cold front southward over Lake Michigan
for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds will shift northeasterly
behind the front. Another potential cold front sliding down the
lake possible Friday.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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