NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 080500
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM CDT this
  morning.

- Warmer temperatures Today and Saturday with highs in the 60s
  to near 70. Cooler by the immediate lakeshore Today due to a
  SSE lake breeze. No lake breeze Saturday.

- A clipper system brings rain chances (65-75%) Monday night
  into Tuesday night. Some thunderstorms will be possible
  (mainly Tue afternoon), but no strong to severe storms are
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Today through Saturday:

Areas of frost are still expected in the region early this
morning, with nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies continuing
for the next several hours. Some high altitude clouds will
eventually make their approach towards dawn and slow the
cooling trend.

Still expecting daytime highs in the 60s to around 70 Today and
Saturday. Saturday should feature breezy W to NW winds, preventing
the formation of a lake breeze and allowing the warmth to spread
to the shoreline. For Today the weaker SW winds should allow a
SSE lake breeze to form, likely only ventilating the nearest ~5
miles from the shoreline thru mid afternoon, then making
further progress as the synoptic winds weaken late today.
Expecting cooler temps (in the 50s) along the immediate
shoreline due to this lake breeze.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Saturday night through Thursday:

Northwest winds decelerate and sky cover decreases Saturday night,
with some slight potential for frost development towards the
northwest corner of the CWA (towards central WI, low temps in the
mid 30s possible), likely too warm elsewhere. High temperatures
around 60 degrees expected Sunday, with a redeveloping NW
breeze. Some potential for a weak lake breeze to push against
this synoptic flow and hold shoreline temperatures to the mid /
low 50s, though our current forecast (best guess) spreads 60
degree highs to the shoreline. Dry weather looking likely as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. Better potential for
frost in the northwest half of the CWA (lows in the low to mid
30s) Sunday night, with calm winds and clear skies looking
likely.

High pressure passes overhead Monday with temperatures holding
steady (around 60) for inland areas and weak synoptic winds. As
such, an easterly lake breeze will likely hold shoreline high
temps to the low 50s. Dry weather continues.

ECMWF and GFS solutions remain in agreement on a clipper system
passing the region on Tuesday, delivering rain chances (65-75%)
late Monday night through Tuesday night. The rain will only
last a fraction of this timeframe (keeping the time window wide
to account for model dispersion) with the majority of model QPF
falling in the daytime hours Tuesday for the time being. The
fast moving nature of this system will limit it's residence
time, yielding only 30% chances for reaching or exceeding 0.5
inches of rain (based off the latest GEFS guidance); this is a
slight increase from the 20% chance that the GEFS provided on
prior runs so we'll continue to monitor trends. Though
thunderstorms will be possible at times (esp Tuesday afternoon),
the fast approach / exit of the system prevents it from drawing
gulf moisture and sufficient instability, hence we do not
expect any strong to severe storms with this system.

Dry weather expected Wednesday as high pressure tracks through
the region behind the departing clipper system. Ridging in the jet
stream is expected to gradually build into the Midwestern CONUS
through late next week, yielding a warming trend.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Dry weather and VFR through the overnight hours with nearly calm
winds. Skies remain mostly clear, though high altitude clouds
(over 20,000 ft) should build into the region towards dawn and
through the rest of this morning. These same clouds would then
erode into this afternoon.

Diurnal cumulus clouds (likely over 6,000 ft) may try to
redevelop this afternoon, some virga is possible but rain chances
are generally 15% or less for now (excluded from all TAFs).

SW winds building up to 10 kt sustained expected today, with a
SSE lake breeze likely forming in the afternoon and pushing ~5
miles inland by mid afternoon, making further progress as the
synoptic wind flow subsides later today. A light southwest
breeze is then expected area wide into tonight, with continued
VFR and dry weather.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Weak high pressure of 30.0 inches slides further away across the
southeastern CONUS overnight. Meanwhile, broad low pressure
around 29.5 inches lingers over Hudson Bay. Light southwest winds
expected over Lake Michigan overnight, turning due south and
accelerating through Today. A cold front extending southwest of
the low will sweep across the lake Saturday, with breezy
southwest winds ahead of it and northwest winds arriving behind
it.

High pressure around 30.3 inches tracks southeastward across
Manitoba Canada Sunday, then the Great lakes region on Monday.
Relatively light and variable winds are expected through this
period.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Frost Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 8 AM
     Friday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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