NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 301115
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
615 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather under high pressure expected through the weekend
  and into next week. Fire weather concerns may increase into
  early next week.

- There is a high swim risk Saturday for Ozaukee, Milwaukee,
  Racine and Kenosha County lakeshore areas due to persistent
  and elevated onshore winds.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 615 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Previous forecast remains on track with gusty onshore winds
this morning and afternoon bringing cooler temps and elevated
swim risk conditions for southeastern WI beaches. However, winds
and waves look to subside by late this afternoon/early evening
and could see swim conditions improve earlier than the current
Beach Hazard Statement end time.

Wagner

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1140 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Current Overnight through Sunday Night:

The weather pattern is expected to remain unchanged this weekend
as high pressure sinks southward from Hudson Bay into the Great
Lakes by Sunday morning. Gusty east winds are expected today as
a tighter pressure gradient remains over the region. These
persistent onshore winds should also push cool lake air inland,
with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 along Lake Michigan, and
highs in the mid to upper 70s well inland. Expect partly cloudy
skies from high clouds aloft.

The gusty easterlies are expected to drive high onshore waves,
leading to High Swim Risk conditions this morning into this
evening. Dangerous waves and currents will be likely and
swimming is not advised while the Beach Hazards Statement is
active.

Similar weather conditions are expected Sunday, with lighter
winds as the high pressure center moves closer.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1140 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Monday through Friday:

High pressure will retreat east somewhat on Monday allowing for
some very low end shower chances (~20%) southwest of Madison
Monday morning. However, another high pressure center is
expected to dive south from Hudson Bay Monday afternoon into
Tuesday, further reinforcing our stuck weather pattern. The high
is finally expected to begin to shift east Wednesday, with
southerly winds returning. Highs Monday through Wednesday will
range from the upper 70s to low/mid 80s.

Chances for rain/thunderstorms look possible late week as a more
humid air mass returns to the state and a trough slowly moves
east across the state Thursday night through Friday.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 615 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Mainly a wind forecast for southern WI terminals as gusty
easterlies wind develop and spread inland this morning into the
afternoon with gusts to around 20 kt. However, as high pressure
re-strengthens over the Upper Great Lakes will see wind weaken
later this afternoon/evening with lighter winds overnight into
Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the period.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1145 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will strengthen
Saturday night and dominate the weather pattern into early next
week. Breezy northeast to easterly prevailing winds will
develop in the wake of a cold front overnight through Saturday,
and again Monday into Monday night. Locally, the breezy east
winds will lead to small craft advisory conditions this morning
into this evening.

Winds will gradually become southerly on Wednesday as the high
begins to exit and low pressure develops in the southern Plains.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 9
     PM Saturday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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