NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 281045
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
545 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday through the end of
  the week. There are generally small chances (around 20
  percent) for rain showers here and there through this period.

- Frost is possible Thursday night into Friday morning and again
  Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 545 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Patchy drizzle has developed in southeastern Wisconsin, with
expectations to end within the next few hours. Low clouds will
exit to the east into midday/early afternoon as drier air moves
in from the northwest. Highs around 60 degrees are expected,
with west-northwest gusty winds preventing a lake breeze from
forming this afternoon.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1126 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Overnight through Tuesday:

Any lingering showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold
front moving east through the area should exit to the east in
the next one to two hours. Storms should continue to gradually
weaken as instability drops and outflows from the storms limit
updraft strength.

Low clouds will spread east across the area behind the cold
front into the overnight hours. Gusty southwest to west winds
are also expected to develop behind the cold front overnight and
linger out of the west on Tuesday. Also, some fog may develop
over Lake Michigan until the cold front moves through, but
should remain east of Sheboygan, Milwaukee and Kenosha. The low
clouds should linger into Tuesday morning, before scattering
out in the afternoon with west northwest winds.

Lows overnight should drop into the middle to upper 40s, with
highs Tuesday in the lower 60s.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1126 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Tuesday night through Monday:

A mid level shortwave trough tracking across IA and IL late Tue
nt into Wed morning should have any of the associated precip
stay to the south of WI (although a slight chance clips southern
WI), but this feature will help give us a push of north-
northeast winds off the lake into southeast WI. As a result,
highs will only be around 50 near the lakeshore, but upper 50s
inland.

Meanwhile, a more broad upper trough will cross Upper Michigan
and WI during the day. Models are hinting at a small chance for
showers with this feature. As it exits, look for increasing
northwest winds (gusts to 20 MPH) that will actually push the
pseudo-lake breeze eastward toward the shore later in the
afternoon. Light winds with lows in the upper 30s are expected
Wednesday night.

Expect a lake breeze once again Thursday due to another weak
little shortwave tracking across IL to reinforce the northerly
winds off the lake. Highs will be similar to Wed. One thing to
note is the slight chance for showers during the afternoon. This
is due to the steep low level lapse rates as the upper low
shifts through the upper Great Lakes. The lake breeze would help
to be a focus for these showers, mainly toward east central WI.

Temperatures will cool quicker Thu nt as the northerly breeze
ushers cooler air into southern WI. The lows Thu nt should be in
the lower to mid 30s under light winds, but potentially still
some partly cloudy skies. Cannot rule out frost toward central
WI where lows will be lowest.

Friday highs will be a notch lower than Thu, with highs ranging
from the middle to upper 40s near the lakeshore to lower 50s
inland. That upper low will continue to progress eastward,
reaching far eastern Quebec by Friday evening. Lows Fri nt look
to be the coldest under mostly clear skies and light winds,
right around 30-34F, which puts us at risk for frost.

The upper cyclonic flow will continue to be slow to exit the
Great Lakes over the weekend, but we should see a rebound in
temperatures, rising into the 60s by Sunday.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 545 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR ceilings between 1500 and 2000 ft will continue through
mid-morning, while patchy drizzle may briefly lower
visibilities in southeastern Wisconsin. Expecting lower clouds
to lift and scatter out into midday. VFR conditions are then
expected through the afternoon and overnight hours and into
Wednesday.

West winds will gust between 25 and 30 kt throughout this
morning, gradually diminishing throughout the day. Expect winds
to shift to northwesterly and become light overnight. Northwest
winds continue into Wednesday at around 12 kt, with a weak
northeast lake breeze possible for Lake Michigan terminals
Wednesday afternoon.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1126 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Low pressure around 29.3 inches will gradually move northeast
across Lake Superior overnight. Gusty south to southeast winds
will become southwest overnight and west on Tuesday, as a cold
front moves through. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through
early afternoon Tuesday for the nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan for these gusty winds and lingering elevated waves.

Scattered thunderstorms will also move east across portions of
the lake into the overnight hours, which may bring some gusty
winds. Some fog may occur as well, until the gusty southwest to
west winds develop overnight into Tuesday.

High pressure around 30.1 inches will set up over the Upper
Midwest Wednesday through Friday. This should bring gradually
lighter winds to Lake Michigan.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 PM
     Tuesday.

&&

$$

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