NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 131157
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
657 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers along the cold front are possible moving through
  this morning, and may cause a brief drop in visibility and
  slick spots for the morning commute.

- A High Wind Warning is in effect until 4 PM CDT today. West
  to northwest winds with gusts up to 60 MPH are expected behind
  a cold front.

- A Storm Force Wind Warning is in effect for the southern half
  of Lake Michigan this evening. Gales are expected for the
  north half of the lake.

- Confidence is increasing for significant accumulating snow,
  blowing snow, and wintry mix Saturday night through Monday
  afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued. There does
  remain some uncertainty with the exact track of the low along
  with resultant precipitation types and totals. Pay close
  attention to the forecast if planning travel during this time
  frame.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 655 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

High Wind Warning is panning out as we continue to see gusts of
40-50 mph and occasionally up to 60 mph especially with any
shower activity. Otherwise, it will be very windy through the
day. Still watching the band of snow and some wintry mix across
western WI to move into southern and central WI this morning.
May bring drops in visibilities and slick travel for areas along
and north of I-94 through the late morning.

Wagner

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1145 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Early Friday Morning through Friday Night:

The approach of the precip tonight has slowed a bit but
otherwise largely remains on track with rain gradually pushing
in over the next few hours with some snow mixing in toward
central WI. The initial period of snow has pushed through much
of the area just linger toward east central WI and will exit in
the next couple hours. The primary slug of precip will likely
swing through the area fairly quickly, likely in and out in 3-4
hours.

Thereafter there will be increasing concerns for snow
behind that precip. A few models suggest a wave of precip that
may be either snow or rain right behind the primary slug of
precip. If it is snow there will be some concern for a snow
squall type feature but if it is largely rain, concerns would
be limited. With a brief break behind that there will be a
better chance for snow showers behind the front correlated with
the surface low and TROWAL. Snow squall concern with that is
more limited given the more broad brushed nature of it in CAMs
but it could be convective which might increase concern should
it become banded and more intense. These snow squall concerns
are in conjunction with the strong winds where a decent snow
will likely cause visibilities around a quarter mile. There is
also a slight concern for some freezing drizzle behind the front
as well given some loss of ice in soundings. By mid to late
Friday morning the precip concerns will exit the area. Some
minor snow accumulations are possible though generally expected
to be an inch or less with highest amounts toward east central
WI.

The other concern continues to be the wind, which on the high
end will be near severe level winds, which is why the High Wind
Warning is in effect. The concern had increased for precip
loading with this event as winds at 900mb were 70+ knots later
tonight as precip moves through so we have move the High Wind
Warning earlier to account for that. Moderate rain showers to
the west have already produced some 40-45 kt winds. In addition
we know the 850mb jet is continuing to strengthen directly over
southern WI tonight. While overnight southerly winds do not
generally cause much mixing the combination of precip and how
low to the surface the significant winds are caused enough
concern to warrant the earlier warning time. These winds may for
the most part be temporary with precip loading and southerly
winds. However, later tonight into Friday morning behind the
front expect winds to really pick up and become more consistent
as CAA and the sun allows us to mix more significantly.
Additional impacts in the morning may continue from precip
loading as well. Later into the day Friday the surface low will
start to push out and allow for higher pressure to nudge thus
slowly lowering winds across the area through the mid to late
afternoon.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1145 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

Into the day Saturday, a band of midlevel moisture and WAA will
slide into southwest WI and continue north through the day.
Initially limited forcing and dry air may limit precip potential
but gradually WAA will strengthen and begin to bring snow across
southern WI by Saturday evening. This will likely occur as a
result 850mb WAA will increase significantly with LLJ factoring
in as well as upper level PVA.

As models have come into more focus over the last 24 hours we
seem to be getting a better idea of the track with the surface low
pushing through around northern IL. Still some time for this to
change but this low track with a more northerly 850mb low track
will drive the potential impacts of this event. There are
certainly some timing deviations among the models still but later
Saturday night into Sunday there is some increasing concern that
we could be dry slotted for at least parts of southern WI as we
lose moisture around 700mb. This may be overdone as forcing
persists with moisture available for much of the rest of the
profile. Toward central WI precip will likely remain through the
entire period. Where precip occurs we will turn to the discussion
of what type of precip. While primarily snow Saturday night there
will be some potential for IP/ZR/RA/SN depending on exactly where
everything sets up but snow is most likely toward Central WI. A
period of ZR/IP will be possible overnight and into Sunday on the
northern fringes of the dry slot. Where exactly this sets up is
still uncertain at this time. Later Sunday the dry slot should
push out to the east with the area of mixed precip potential
swinging back to the east on the backside of the dry slot with
snow pushing in right behind that. Then a prolonged period of snow
would be expected in the TROWAL and in the vicinity of the upper
low, in addition to the Fgen banding. Snow will linger through a
good portion of the day Monday.

The exact impact of this event remains uncertain, especially now
with the added concern for the dry slot undercutting some of the
potential impacts. Towards central WI the chance for a significant
heavy snow event remains fairly high. While some mixiness will
occur at times the predominant effect will be the impact of the
snow. For the rest of southern WI the impact of a potential dry
slot with the SN/ZR/IP concerns will cause significant
variability of impacts across the rest of southern WI. Somewhere
in southern WI may significant impacts from ice. Impacts from this
system may be much more limited toward the WI/IL border however
with the primary impacts coming on the back end of the system with
transitory Fgen.

It is worth mentioning that this will be another event with the
potential for high winds given strong LLJ winds which could cause
some blizzard like conditions where there is consistent heavier
snow as quarter mile visibilities would be expected. Wind
Advisory may be needed Sunday into Monday.

Otherwise Monday evening high pressure will push in. Tuesday
looks largely dry at this time but Tuesday night and beyond may
feature several weak bouts of rain/snow mixed precip events
through midweek.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 655 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A band of snow/wintry mix showers is moving through southern WI
this morning mainly impacting MSN and SBM through the late
morning. This activity may bring an hour or two of lower
visibility and MVFR ceilings, but will quickly exit late
morning. Otherwise expecting MVFR ceilings around 1-3kft will
spread in until the early afternoon before improving. Otherwise,
today main concern will the strong winds with frequent gust
greater than 40kt until this afternoon. Then winds gradually
ease this evening as the low pushes east and high pressure
builds across the Upper Midwest.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1159 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A low pressure system will track from the northern plains and
cross the northern half of the lake tonight into Friday morning.
Winds are increasing across the lake with Gales expected across
the northern half and storm force gusts across the southern half.
There is a Gale Warning in effect for the north and Storm Warning
for the south through 10 PM tonight. As the low pressure system
tracks across the lake there will be areas of rain and snow
showers. These shower will continue through Friday afternoon.

High pressure will then approach the lake Friday night causing
winds to diminish. As the high crosses central Lake Michigan
Saturday winds will become light and variable. This area of high
pressure will quickly move east and a second low pressure system
will traverse the central Plains and into the southern Great Lakes
Region by Sunday. East-northeast winds will steadily
increase Saturday night through Sunday as this low approaches.
This low will deepen as it passes near the far southern end. Winds
will then shift out of the northwest Monday as the low continues
into Ontario. As this low passes there will be prolonged person
of gale force winds. There is a potential that winds could become
storm force as this low deepens. Additional headlines will be
necessary across the Lake during this time. Mixed precipitation
of snow, sleet, rain and freezing rain will be possible across
Lake Michigan as this low passes.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...High Wind Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 PM
     Friday.

     Winter Storm Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...7 PM Saturday
     to 4 PM Monday.

LM...Storm Warning...LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-
     LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878 until 10 PM Friday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 until 10 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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