NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 121122 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
622 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and dry weather expected late tonight through Saturday
  morning.

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Saturday
  afternoon and evening (50-90% chance).

- Mostly below normal temps for early next week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Quiet weather is expected today under high pressure centered
over Illinois. Westerly winds will become breezy by mid/late
morning, with afternoon cumulus likely as well. A couple models
are showing a small chance for showers in the afternoon, but
having a hard time seeing much of a trigger for any development,
so kept the forecast dry. In general, the forecast looks on
track for the upcoming day.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1132 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Wly winds, cold advection and clearing skies will prevail the
remainder of the night in the wake of the cold front. The large
upper low building into Ontario will then remain there into
early next week with weak shortwave troughs rotating through
WI. The only impactful trough will be Sat afternoon and evening
with the passage of a cold front. After a pleasant Friday, warm
advection will ensue Fri nt into Sat with some moisture return
expected. MLCAPEs are expected to rise to perhaps 1500 J/KG Sat
afternoon with 50 kt of unidirectional deep layer shear. Given
the favorable timing of the afternoon and evening, some severe
storms with damaging winds and large hail will be possible.
Afterward, partly cloudy skies and cooler temps will prevail for
Sun-Mon given the nwly flow pattern.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1132 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Tuesday through Thursday:

Stronger shortwave troughs will then arrive on nwly flow aloft
during this period. The first upper trough will bring rain
chances of 50-70 percent Tue afternoon, but the second upper
trough may result in substantial cyclogenesis from the nrn Great
Plains into the Great Lakes for Wed-Wed nt. This would bring a
return of thunderstorms and potential for severe weather and
heavy rainfall.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected today into at least early Saturday,
as high pressure passes by just to the south. Scattered late
morning and afternoon cumulus clouds are likely today, with
bases around 5 kft. Breezy westerly winds will likely gust up
to 25 kt late morning and afternoon.

Shower/storm chances return mid-afternoon Saturday into the
evening as a cold front drops through the area. Breezy southwest
winds are likely tomorrow ahead of the cold front.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1132 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Modest to breezy west winds are expected late this evening into
the overnight due to the passage of low pressure and its cold
front. Modest to breezy westerly winds will continue Friday and
shift to the southwest Friday night into Saturday in advance of
a cold front passage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected with
the frontal passage. Modest northwest winds can be expected
with the frontal passage late Saturday night continuing through
Sunday morning.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645...noon Friday to 7
     PM Friday.

&&

$$

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