NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 130225 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
825 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Arctic airmass settles in this weekend with wind chills
  ranging from -10F to -30F late tonight through Sunday night.

- Next week temps return to near normal with daytime temps
  around to above freezing by midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 825 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Light snow is occurring along the leading edge of the arctic
front, which is reducing visibility down to 3 miles at times.
This will persist for about two hours until the dry air works
its way in and scours out the low clouds. The exception will be
toward central WI where low clouds (and the potential for
flurries) should linger a little longer. A dusting of snow is
possible and no travel impacts are expected.

Gusty westerly winds will arrive shortly after the snow begins.
Much colder and drier air is moving in overnight. The Cold
Weather Advisory remains in effect.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 307 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Tonight through Saturday night:

The band of light snow is trucking on through the area this
afternoon. Given it is a fairly narrow band and quick movement
with light rates, expect a dusting to at most a few tenths of an
inch. Areas outside of the main band may see a few flurries as
well. Otherwise, expect the light band to push out over Lake
Michigan by early evening between 22z-00z.

Behind the light band of snow then will see west-northwesterly
winds gradually pick up behind the frontal passage and will
begin to see temps drop as that Arctic airmass advects in
overnight. Will see temps bottom out to around zero where clouds
lingering, especially along the WI/IL border, while colder sub-
zero temps expected further north. After midnight is we begin to
see wind chills dip even further with negative teens along
WI/IL border and dipping below -20F for areas north in Saturday
morning. While winds stay brisk into Saturday, not expecting
much relief from these biting wind chills during the day time
hours with only a few hour window in the afternoon where they
creep above cold weather advisory criteria before falling even
colder Saturday night into Sunday. Thus have elected to extend
the Cold weather Advisory from midnight tonight through 10 AM
Sunday for the northern 3/4 of the CWA.

For those remaining counties along the WI/IL border that stay
just above advisory criteria (-10F to -18F) tonight and
Saturday, expect them to fall around/below -20F wind chills
Saturday evening as the Arctic High builds eastward into Sunday.
Thus a Cold Weather Advisory for the counties along the Cheddar
Curtain begin 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday.

While the main focus will be the bitter cold this weekend,
there is another potential for our southern portion of the CWA
to see another round of light snow as the mid-level lobe of
vorticity works its way through the area Saturday afternoon.
However, will be light and confined toward the WI/IL border if
anything should sneak its way north with little to any
accumulations. Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 307 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Sunday through Friday:

Will finally see a bit of relief Sunday afternoon as winds
weaken with the +1040mb surface high building more into the
Upper Midwest. However, still expecting single digit to low
teens highs and below zero wind chills through Sunday afternoon.
Then another night of wind chills back into the negative teens,
but generally should remain above cold weather advisory
thresholds.

Early next week continue to look milder as upper-level ridging
replaces the weekend's Arctic air. Monday will see daytime temps
rebound back into the 20s with above freezing temps Tuesday
through midweek. There is also the potential to see above normal
temps cracking into the 40s Wednesday as WI sits in the warm
sector of a midweek system. Long range models seem to be in
general agreement on this mid week system bringing increased
precip chances ranging from rain to snow and wintry mix, but
also for temps to cool back toward normal toward the end of the
week.Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 825 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

The arctic front is tracking across southern WI this evening.
Expect a brief (up to 2 hours) period of light snow with reduced
visibility down to 3 miles at times and ceilings between 1300
and 2500 ft. A dusting of snow is possible. Gusty westerly winds
will kick in shortly after the snow begins and usher much colder
and drier air into the region. Low clouds will clear rather
quickly tonight, although areas toward central WI will remain
under low clouds (and potential flurries) longer than southern
WI near the IL border. MSN and MKE will be on the border of
clouds and no clouds, so confidence in the timing of clearing is
lower.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 307 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Westerly winds will gradually increase tonight with the passage
of the Arctic front across the Lake as low pressure works its
way east across central Ontario tonight. Brisk northwesterly
winds up 30 knots will continue overnight through Saturday night
as high pressure builds across the Upper Midwest. Given the
bitter cold Arctic airmass and winds, expecting to see moderate
to heavy freezing spray begin tonight through Sunday morning.
Will see winds gradually ease through the day Sunday as the high
pressure moves south and east of lake Michigan into early next
week. Then winds shift more southerly and ramp back up early
next week as temps warm back up.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
     WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
     WIZ066...midnight Saturday to 10 AM Sunday.

     Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ062-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-
     WIZ071-WIZ072...6 PM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...midnight Saturday to 9 AM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until noon Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until noon Sunday.

&&

$$

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