NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 081943
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
143 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder temps mainly in the 30s with a couple days in the 40s
  are forecast for the work week. Mostly dry conditions are
  forecast.

- Increased chance (20-30%) for light freezing rain Monday
  afternoon

- Next chances for precipitation (20-40%) Thursday into
  Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 130 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

Quiet conditions expected today with weak ridging aloft
dominating into Monday with surface high pressure hanging on
across the region into Monday morning. Monday afternoon into
the evening there is some evidence of an upper level weak
shortwave feature with moisture that could yield a bit of
precip. This will be associated with a surface low to the north
as well that will track a front through later. However the
issue with this potential is that despite the moisture aloft
there is very limited moisture in the low to mid levels. It
remains possible that enough midlevel moisture in the northern
part of the CWA may remain present to provide a brief shot of
precip Monday afternoon and if the midlevels moisten up that
could easily provide an area of better forcing with strong WAA.
In addition CAMs are seemingly supportive of some mild potential
as well. Attention then turns to the precip type as strong
midlevel WAA will melt any snow falling through and temperatures
at the surface could be enough to cause freezing rain/drizzle
concerns. Any precip would be mostly light but a glaze of ice
cannot be ruled out if we manage to get precip.

The front will push through Monday night with higher pressure
filling in quickly behind it with quiet conditions returning.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 130 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

The extended period looks fairly quiet overall. An upper low
will swing through the northern Great Lakes region Tuesday but
dry conditions aloft will prevent much in the way of precip from
developing along its band of PVA. Ridging begins to return
Wednesday as surface high pressure settles in overhead. Thursday
into Thursday night will feature the next best chance for
precip as some upper level shortwave activity may swing through
with a surface low pushing through the central US that may
sideswipe western parts of the CWA with some precip, especially
in areas with some midlevel WAA.

Beyond Thursday, while some shortwave activity may persist in
the region the moisture will be gradually dissipating over the
region and may end up keeping us dry especially with the surface
high pressure hanging on across southern WI through the weekend.
However models are suggestive of moisture it will become about
whether there will be enough forcing within the bands of
moisture to produce some precip.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 130 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS likely to stick around across eastern parts of
the state through tonight lingering into Monday morning with VFR
BKN/SCT CIGS to the west. Expect VFR conditions to return Monday
morning with a weak system possibly bringing some ice to central
WI Monday afternoon. While light this may cause some minor
impacts. Otherwise expect light to modest southerly winds across
southern WI ahead of the front coming through Monday evening.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 130 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

High pressure around 30.5 inches continues to slide eastward
through the eastern Great Lakes tonight, leading to southeast
winds turning back more southerly. The onshore winds may bring
wave heights up to 5 feet tonight in ice free areas in the
Sheboygan area and thus a Small Craft Advisory remains in place.
Winds will become south to southwest Monday as low pressure
around 29.7 inches moves across Ontario. Southwest winds remain
through Monday night as high pressure around 30.5 inches builds
into the northern Plains, before a trailing cold front from the
Ontario low pushes across the lake Tuesday morning. Modest west
to northwest winds are expected behind the front and will
persist into the middle of the week.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...10 PM Sunday to 9 AM Monday.

&&

$$

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