NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 212349
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
649 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier & less humid through the end of the work week. Muggy
  conditions return late weekend.

- Showers & storms return to the forecast Sunday into Monday.

- Beach Hazards Statement in effect for Sheboygan to Kenosha for
  breezy onshore winds and waves from 3-8 feet from 5pm CDT
  until 1 pm CDT Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 650 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Forecast remains mostly on track early this evening. Secondary
cold front is in the process of moving through the region, and
will allow a noticeably cooler air mass originating from the
Hudson Bay vicinity to settle in during the overnight hours.
Passage of the front has allowed an enhanced push of
northeasterly winds to back off Lake Michigan, with sensible
impacts to temperatures being most noticeable over the eastern
portions of our lakeshore counties. Have knocked temperatures
back a touch through the evening to better align with
observational trends. While chances are waning with decreasing
heating of the day, still can't rule out an isolated shower or
sprinkle in far southeast Wisconsin through mid-evening.

Quigley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday night:

This afternoon, a secondary cold front is expected to move
through the reason which will potentially bring another round
of rainshowers down through the northeast region of the CWA down
to along the coastline of Lake Michigan. Showers will be
light/brief and will move out of the region by mid-evening.
Winds this afternoon will be from the northwest with sustained
speeds around 10-15 mph across most of the region with gusts
around 20 mph and sustained speeds of 15-20 mph along the
coastlines with gusts near 25 mph. There is a beach hazard
statement out from 5pm CDT until Wednesday afternoon for 3 to 8
foot waves. Remain out of the water as swimming conditions will
be dangerous. After the front moves through, winds direction
will slightly shift to be primarily from the north and speeds
briefly increase before gradually falling off as higher pressure
begins to nudge in.

As high pressure builds back in tomorrow from the west, sticking
around for much of the next few days, skies will start to clear
out and winds will again be from the northwest and continue to
be light. High temperatures are expected to in lower 70s with
upper 60s along the coastline. It will be noticeably drier
throughout the CWA with dewpoints only reaching the upper
40s/lower 50s which will be a nice relief after last week.

Tomorrow night, low temperatures will drop to be near the mid
50s with dewpoints near the low 50s. Visibility may drop in the
river valley on the west side of the CWA, but will rise again
Thursday morning.

Soergel/Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

High pressure remain in the region on Thursday with cooler and
drier conditions expected. Winds will back from the east to be
from the south Friday into Saturday which will bring in moisture
along with higher temperatures with highs up to the low 90s by
Sunday afternoon and dewpoints near the low 70s. With these hot
and humid conditions, the potential for rain and thunderstorms
return by the end of the weekend into early next week.

Sunday into Monday, the next weather system will move through
the region and bring rain and thunderstorm chances. Severity of
these storm/rain chances will be determined by the timing of the
system which is uncertain at this point, but will have more
clarity by the end of the week. Hot and humid temps are
expected to continue into the beginning of next week along with
increased cloud coverage, but by Tuesday, winds will shift to be
from the north as the system exits which will bring in cool and
drier air by mid week.

Soergel/Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 650 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

SCT to BKN VFR CIGS this afternoon with some isolated to scattered
showers across central WI tracking SE this afternoon in
association with a front swinging down from the north. Have
maintained TEMPO groups for the next couple hours at KMKE and
KENW to cover this potential. In response to a marine air mass
backing off Lake Michigan, sporadic MVFR CIGs have been reported
in the vicinity of KMKE over the last hour, and have been
accounted for with TEMPO groups in the 00Z update. While
conditions haven't been observed as of yet at KENW, have also
carried TEMPO MVFR mentions. Expect returns to VFR later this
evening as larger scale flow becomes predominant once more &
scatters the marine air mass out. Breezy NW winds will turn
northerly behind the front. Expect VFR conditions through the
remainder of the TAF period.

Kuroski/Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Low pressure near 29.3 inches will move eastward across the
James Bay though this afternoon which will bring a secondary
cold front across the lake through tonight. Breezy northwest
winds are expected and will veer to be from the north behind the
cold front. Gusts are expected with a gale force wind possible
for a brief period behind the front. Winds will decrease in
speed later tonight into Wednesday as high pressure near 30.1
inches begins to build into the region from the west.

Soergel/Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM
     Wednesday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 7 AM Wednesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 7 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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