NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 240559
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1259 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers (20 to 40 percent) should shift
  east across the eastern half of the area overnight into this
  morning before exiting. An isolated thunderstorm may occur.

- Some fog and low stratus clouds should develop and shift
  onshore in the areas near Lake Michigan overnight into this
  morning. Patchy dense fog may occur.

- Some fog is also expected over Lake Michigan during this time,
  and may linger into tonight and Monday. Patchy dense fog may
  occur.

- Expect a gradual warming trend through early next week, with
  highs in the 80s on Memorial Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1259 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Overnight through Monday:

A weak cold front/convergence boundary should continue to shift
east through the area overnight into this morning. There is
some weak differential CVA aloft pushing into the area as well,
with some low level moisture and very weak instability.
Isolated to perhaps scattered showers (20 to 40 percent) should
shift east across the eastern half of the area with the
boundary into this morning before exiting. An isolated
thunderstorm may occur as well, with the very weak instability.

Light onshore winds overnight should allow for low status
clouds and fog to push onshore in the areas near Lake Michigan,
lingering into this morning before pushing back offshore. Patchy
dense fog may occur. There may be patchy fog further inland as
well.

Clouds should gradually push east of the area by midday today,
with a dry and pleasant day expected in the afternoon. Light to
modest west winds are expected inland, with a southeast lake
breeze developing in the afternoon near the lake. Highs today
should warm into the upper 70s over most inland areas, with
temperatures turning cooler near the lake in the afternoon.

There may be a few light showers that occur (around 20 percent
chances) later tonight into Monday in western portions of the
area, with some weak warm air advection and a low level jet that
transports in some modest moisture. Not confident in this
possibility, so kept chances for showers low at this time.

Otherwise, some middle to high clouds should move through the
area Monday. Warm highs into the middle 80s are expected with
increasing south to southwest winds. There may be a southeast
lake breeze later in the day near the lake.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1259 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Monday night through Saturday:

There may be a few light showers that occur (around 20 percent
chances) Monday night into Tuesday, as some weak warm air
advection and a low level jet that transports some moisture into
western portions of the area.

High pressure to the east should keep the area in warm air
advection on south to southwest winds Tuesday, with warm highs
into the middle to upper 80s. There may be a lake breeze in the
afternoon near the lake.

The Tuesday night into Saturday period is generally showing a
500 mb ridge axis developing over the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest per 500 mb cluster analysis for the coming week.
There are anomalous 500 mb heights expected over most of the
northern half of the country and into Canada during this
period. Ensemble means generally keep high pressure at the
surface over areas to the north of the region for the middle to
late portions of the week. This should result in above normal
temperatures for most of this period and relatively dry
conditions, which is supported by ensemble trends.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1259 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A weak cold front should continue to shift east through the
area overnight into this morning. Isolated to perhaps scattered
showers (20 to 40 percent) should shift east across the eastern
half of the area with the boundary into this morning before
exiting. An isolated thunderstorm may occur as well.

Light onshore winds overnight should allow for low status
clouds in the 800 to 1300 foot AGL range and fog in the 2 to 5
mile range to push onshore in the areas near Lake Michigan,
lingering into this morning before pushing back offshore. Patchy
dense fog may occur. There may be patchy fog further inland as
well.

Clouds should gradually push east of the area by midday today,
with a dry and pleasant day expected in the afternoon. Light to
modest west winds are expected inland, with a southeast lake
breeze developing in the afternoon near the lake. Light south
winds are anticipated tonight, with some middle to high clouds
moving in from the west.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1259 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Weak low pressure around 29.8 inches will move northeast across
Manitoba overnight into today. This will pull a weak cold front
eastward across Lake Michigan early this morning and exit by
late morning. Gusty east winds over far northern portions of the
lake should weaken overnight into this morning, with light
south winds elsewhere. South winds should then develop later
today into tonight.

Some fog is expected to develop across the lake overnight into
this morning. Patchy dense fog may occur. It may linger further
into tonight and Monday, as milder air moves over and remains
over the cooler lake waters.

Going into early next week, a broad ridge of high pressure around
30.2 inches is expected to set up over the eastern Great Lakes,
ushering in more south to southwest winds across Lake Michigan.
A cold front may shift southward across the lake toward the
middle of next week, as high pressure around 30.3 inches builds
into James Bay.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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