NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 101218
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
618 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected throughout this week.

- Small chances (15 to 30 percent) for light snow Thursday into
  Thursday evening.

- Chances for rain and snow Saturday night into Sunday (15 to 30
  percent).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 619 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A few areas of patchy fog have developed in low-lying areas, but
is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise. Cloud cover is
expected to increase through the morning as a cold front moves
through the area. Temperatures will also remain near current
levels through much of the morning as sunlight competes with
CAA and quite a bit of mixing with winds around 30 mph. During
the afternoon hours, southwestern to south-central Wisconsin
may see breaks in the clouds, allowing for temperatures to rise
into the upper 30s in those areas.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Overnight through Tuesday Night:

The low level jet pushing into central WI and weak vorticity
advection are enough for producing ice crystals aloft over the
north half of WI and portions of southern WI. The low layers
(below 10,000 ft) of the atmosphere over southern WI are very dry.
Thus, we are seeing light returns on mosaic radar but nothing is
reaching the ground, indicating virga. This forcing will exit the
area just before daybreak.

Then a cold front will sweep across southern WI in the morning and
bring gusty northwest winds and low clouds. Expect brisk gusts up
to 30 mph during the afternoon, and clouds to break apart as the
day goes on. Temperatures are above freezing toward the IL border
and between 28 and 30 toward central WI (late this evening) where
they had brief clearing in the evening. The temps will not make a
lot of upward progress during the day Tuesday due to the cold air
advection, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 30s, still
above normal.

Winds and clouds will gradually diminish through Wednesday as the
low pressure system exits the region and high pressure moves
overhead. Lows Tue nt will be in the lower 20s and highs Wed will
rebound into the lower 30s northeast to upper 30s southwest.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Wednesday Night through Monday:

A mid level shortwave trough dropping through southern MN and the
borders of IA, WI and IL late Wed nt into Thu morning is
coincident with the nose of a low level jet and some subtle lift
from the entrance region of a weakening upper level jet. This
forcing may be enough for light precip along a fairly narrow
axis, although the forcing (and chance for precip) weakens quickly
Thu morning as it gets further into northern IL and southeast WI.
The precip type looks like light, fluffy snow with the forcing
within at least part of the dendritic growth zone. Depending on
the speed of the system this snow would occur early Thu morning to
early Thu afternoon or Thu afternoon to early evening.

The focus for precip will shift southward for the weekend as the
baroclinic zone sets up there and high pressure sets up over the
Great Lakes. This will leave southern WI dry Fri through Sun with
temperatures running above normal. There are small chances for
precip over srn WI Sat through Sun, but the trend in the models is
for dry weather. There is growing agreement in a stronger low
pressure system to track across the southern States and keep the
precip chances well south of WI.

A weak shortwave from the northern wave may dip down across WI Sun
afternoon/night so cannot rule out the need to add precip chances
in later forecasts. Beyond Monday, an amplified upper trough is
expected to push onshore from the Pacific. This will bring the
potential for a stronger system to affect the Upper Midwest by
late next week.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 619 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions in most areas, with patchy fog lowering
visibilities to MVFR in low lying areas. A deck of MVFR stratus
will move into the region from west to east mid-morning,
lingering through much of the day. Expecting this deck to
scatter out in most areas during the afternoon, then
southeastern Wisconsin may see a return to MVFR ceilings into
the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected going into
Wednesday as high pressure builds overhead.

Northwesterly winds will increase throughout this morning, with
gusts to 25 kt expected this afternoon into early this evening.
Gusts will diminish into late tonight, but winds will remain
elevated around 12 kt through Wednesday morning.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Brisk southerly winds will continue over Lake Michigan tonight
as low pressure tracks across northern Ontario. A cold front will
cross Lake Michigan early Tuesday, bringing brisk west to
northwest winds through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect Tuesday for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan due to
gusty northwest winds.

High pressure will set up over the Great Lakes Wednesday night
through Saturday. Winds will be on the lighter side and mainly out
of the southwest.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee