NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 300933
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
333 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A round of widespread light snow (0.5 - 1 inch) across
  southern WI this afternoon into the early evening. Areas
  along the Kettle Moraine have a low to medium potential
  (20-40%) to see snow totals above an inch.

- Another sound of light snow Wednesday afternoon/evening with
  amounts ranging from a dusting to under 1 inch. Best chance
  for snow amounts around an inch will be for southwestern WI.

- Single digit temps and sub-zero wind chills (-5F to -15F)
  expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Today and Tonight:

Some isolated, lingering flurries along and just west of the
Kettle Moraine this morning but should continue to diminish over
the next hour or so.

Otherwise upper-level northwesterly flow pattern prevails
across the region today. This along with high pressure working
across the region will bring chilly and below normal temps to
southern WI. However, will gradually see northwesterly winds
turn more west- southwest through the day as the surface high
slides further south into the southern Plains. Will see temps
gradually warm into the lower 20s this afternoon, but fall into
the teens to low 20s overnight tonight after the snow .

Meanwhile a mid-level shortwave trough is progged to works its
way down across the Upper Midwest through the afternoon and
evening. Given the synoptic forcing from the mid-level dCVA
paired with low- level WAA, 35-45kt LLJ, and a surface
trough/cold front aligning with a slug of Pacific moisture, will
bring a round (50-70% chances) of light snow across the area.
Models agree on a this activity moving into southern WI
around/after 18z and exit southeast by 03z-06z. Overall, HREF
and other CAMs only suggest lighter QPF of about a few
hundredths to under a tenth of an inch with this system and with
SLR ranging from 13:1-17:1, looking at snow amounts of 0.5- 1.0
inch across much of the the CWA. However given the forcing,
could not rule out seeing a localized pockets of higher snowfall
above an inch along and just west of the Kettle Moraine given a
20-40% probability based off the 00z NBM as well as the 00z EPS
ensembles. So could see some minor impacts to the
afternoon/early evening commute.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

Wednesday is the next opportunity to see another round of light
snow across portions of southern WI. We are looking at another
mid-level shortwave trough digging down in the upper-level
northwest flow pairing with another slug of Pacific moisture.
Again looking at lighter snowfall amounts ranging from a dusting
to under an inch, but better chances look to be for
southwestern portion of WI (south of line from WI Dells to
Kenosha) following additional forcing from a surface low
trekkingdown trough the Dakotas into the lower Missouri River
Valley. Mainly expecting this activity to move through during
Wednesday afternoon into the early evening.

Following this round of snow will be a reinforcing cold front
and push of Arctic air into WI overnight. Models have been
consistently showing this trend over the past few days with
single digit to just below zero lows Wednesday night and high
temps in the teens for Thursday. While the colder trend is
expected to continue through the end of the week with below
normal temps, it is looking drier as high pressure moves through
the region Thursday with another weak cold front passage on
Friday.

Then the weekend is still trending milder as the northwesterly
flow finally shifts east Saturday with the incoming ridge from
central CONUS. However pattern does hint at becoming more active
later this weekend with a series of mid-level disturbance
traversing the Upper Midwest into the start of next week.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Widespread VFR conditions have develop early this morning with
the influence of the high pressure passing to our southwest.
Still seeing some gusty northwesterly winds this morning and
will linger into the afternoon before turning more west to west-
southwest ahead of a incoming cold front. There will be a quick
bout of widespread light snow this afternoon into the early
evening across much of southern WI. Overall expecting half an
inch to an inch of new snowfall between 18z-03z with a few spots
along and west of the Kettle Moraine (such as UES) potentially
seeing amounts above an inch. Accompanying this activity will be
lower visibility and lower ceilings to IVR/MVFR levels. While
some light flurries may linger overnight tonight into Wednesday,
generally expecting drier and improving flight conditions
before another round of light snow Wednesday afternoon.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Winds have fallen below gales over the open waters, but gusty
northwesterly winds and moderate freezing spray concerns
continue this morning as Lake Michigan sits between strong low
pressure meandering over Quebec and a high pressure moving south
across the Plains. Will then see the gusty winds shift more
westerly this afternoon as an area of weak low pressure and cold
front slides down across the region. Northwesterly winds return
overnight behind the frontal passage with a few gale force
gusts possible across the far northern portions of the Lake.
Will see another cold front move down across the Lake Wednesday
with northwesterly winds prevailing through the end of the week.
Behind the front, colder Arctic air will settle over the region
as high pressure builds down across the Upper Great Lakes
region Wednesday night into Thursday. Could see additional
freezing spray concern through the end of the week given breezy
winds and the colder airmass.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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