NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 090449
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures in the upper 60s possible on Monday.

- Rain with some embedded thunderstorms expected Tuesday
  afternoon through Tuesday night (70-90%). Temperatures will
  drop into Wednesday, with a transition to wintry mix, then
  potential for light snow and rain (40-60%).

- Active pattern for the later half of the week with increased
  precipitation chances Thursday evening/night, and again
  Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Today (Monday) through Tonight (Monday night):

A southwest breeze continues as deep low pressure tracks eastward
across Lake Superior, with strong low-level WAA holding low
temperatures to the 40s early this morning. Forecast soundings hint
at only a few mid to high altitude clouds (over the 700mb level,
mainly further north towards central WI) through the daytime hours
today, leaving skies almost completely clear. Light southwesterly
WAA continues through the morning, then winds decelerate (becoming
light and variable) through the afternoon as a weak frontal boundary
sags southward into the region. Forecast highs are in the mid to
upper 60s across the region. Both the Milwaukee and Madison high
temperature records for March 9th (67 in 2016 and 66 in 1977
respectively) could possibly be tied or broken. The southwesterly
flow will block any attempt at a lake breeze before noon, though one
may develop later in the afternoon as the frontal boundary sags
south, particularly further north

A light northeasterly breeze gradually develops Monday night as high
pressure builds into central Canada and low pressure deepens from
the central Plains to the Mississippi River valley. The cooling
effect of Lake Michigan and mostly clear skies will work together to
rapidly drop temperatures Monday night, with a low in the mid to
upper 30s for much of the region (low 40s towards the IL border).

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Tuesday through Sunday:

Low pressure is expected to track east-northeastward from the
central Plains through Ohio mid week, resulting in 60-90% precip
chances on it's closest approach Tuesday into Wednesday. Though the
center of the low is currently expected to pass just south of the
region, and northeasterly winds off Lake Michigan will halt the
advance of the surface warm front well shy of our region, some
elevated convection (thunderstorms) north of the warm front will be
possible in southern WI, especially further south towards the IL
Border where a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe hail is
present. This activity would likely arrive (roughly) late Tuesday
afternoon, peak in the evening, then transition to light stratiform
precip late Tuesday night. Forecast soundings reveal an LFC above
the 700mb layer, with plenty of stable marine air beneath it. We'll
be watching the track of the low closely, but for the time being
we're mainly looking at small (less than 1 inch) hail potential and
lightning.

Light stratiform precip is likely to continue late Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning (65-90% chance), with ~45% chances to
continue into Wednesday afternoon. A northwest to southeast
transition from rain to light wintry mix or snow is looking likely
early in said period, with a chance for slushy accumulations and
slowdowns on the Wednesday AM commute (particularly for the northern
half of the CWA, north of the I-94 corridor). It's too early to
advertise snow totals with this type of mixed precip event
(especially with the antecedent warm weather and soil / pavement
surface temps), but our best guess is in the ballpark of 1 inch
slushy snow accumulations north of the I-94 corridor, with only a
fraction of an inch to zero accumulation further south due to
melting / later arrival of the cooler temps and rain to snow
transition.

Predominantly dry weather expected Wednesday night into Thursday as
high pressure builds in behind the departed low. A clipper system is
then expected to track eastward into our region, delivering ~60%
precip chances Thursday evening / night. Both rain and wintry precip
are possible with this system, though the ensemble mean system track
is centered further north in the state, hence we're leaning towards
mostly rain and little / no wintry accumulation despite the
nocturnal timing. Additional chances for FGEN or clipper system
driven precip at times this upcoming weekend. Ensemble temperature
IQRs are centered near seasonal norms this weekend, and may trend
colder into the first half of next week.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail overnight through Monday. Dry weather and
mostly clear skies, with a few periods of broken upper-altitude
cloud cover (mainly further north). A southwest breeze continues
overnight, with the 2,000 ft AGL winds (around 50 kt) outpacing the
surface flow. As such, LLWS has been added to all TAFs through just
after daybreak Monday morning.

A light southwest breeze lingers into post-dawn Monday morning /
early Monday afternoon, gradually transitioning to light and
variable as a weak frontal boundary sags southward into the region.
From late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, a northeasterly
breeze developing north of the frontal boundary might lead to the
development of low cloud ceilings or fog, though there remains
plenty of uncertainty in model guidance.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Winds will remain gusty and southwesterly overnight into Monday
as low pressure of 29.1 inches progresses eastward across Lake
Superior. A few gales are possible Monday morning (particularly
over the northern third of Lake Michigan) as low pressure makes
its closest approach. High pressure then builds in briefly Monday
afternoon, allowing for lighter and variable winds, before a cold
front brings gusty northeasterly winds Monday night into Tuesday.

Low pressure around 29.6 inches then develops in the central
Plains and progresses northeastward into northern Illinois
Tuesday night, keeping winds northeasterly and gusty, with some
potential for isolated thunderstorms across the southern third
of the Lake. Low pressure ejects northeastward into Wednesday
morning, turning winds northwesterly. North to northwest gales
are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Winds
gradually diminish into Thursday morning.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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