NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 100503
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1203 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain (60-90+ percent chances) continues through dawn.

- Milder Friday and Saturday before 70s return Sunday and into
  next week.

- An active weather pattern returns late this weekend into next
  week. Warm and humid conditions and more showers and storms
  are expected. Severe storms will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Current Overnight through Saturday Night:

Rain will continue through the overnight hours largely clearing
out by dawn as the surface trough shifts east into the Lower
Great Lakes region. High pressure is then expected to push in
this morning, leading to gradual clearing from northwest to
southeast through the day. Surface winds will largely be
northwesterly to northerly and weak CAA will cause high
temperatures to dip slightly today into the low to mid 50s.

High pressure and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will
linger into the first half of Saturday before skies cloud over
Saturday afternoon and upper level WAA brings elevated rain
showers back to the region. Best chances for rain should occur
Saturday night (60-90% chances) as the core of an 850mb jet
leans over into the region ahead of a large trough over the
western United States.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1148 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Sunday through Wednesday:

With strong WAA over the region on Sunday, a warm front is
anticipated to move north into Wisconsin through the day. Temps
should rise into the low 70s with dew points near 60. As the
warm front pushes in, WAA may drive continued rain showers
through the morning and some potential for weak thunderstorms
during the afternoon, with the RRFS hinting that we may have
some available CAPE <1000 j/kg during the afternoon.

Beyond, a multi-day period of active weather looks to set up.
The Storm Prediction Center includes at least some of our CWA in
an outlook for days 5, 6, and 7. The aforementioned warm front
is expected to become a stationary front over the region late
Sunday, with multiple potent waves propagating along the front
Monday through Wednesday, until a larger surface low kicks the
front through on Thursday of next week. Given the surface
frontal trigger, surface moisture and warmth south of the
front, and upper level support, severe weather appears possible.
However, it is still too early to pin down the timing and
location of the most severe storms, as global model solutions
vary widely. Stay tuned through the weekend as the hazards for
next week become clearer with time.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1132 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Rain continues across southern WI tonight. Ceilings have mostly
stayed in the VFR to MVFR range, but upstream obs suggest those
ceilings will come down to MVFR and IFR with time tonight. Some
vis restriction will be likely with the rain, especially with
heavier pockets. Winds will remain light and northerly to
northeasterly.

Rain ends near dawn on Friday, with ceilings rising to high
MVFR/low VFR through the morning and scattering out as we head
into the afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1129 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A stationary front will remain just south of Lake Michigan through
Friday, leading to continued light to moderate north winds. High
pressure will then build over the Upper Great Lakes Region
Friday night into Saturday morning, causing winds to become
light and variable. Southeast winds return Saturday afternoon
and become gusty Saturday night as a sharper pressure gradient
moves over the lake as low pressure moves into the northern
Great Plains.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee