NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 111027
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
527 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle this morning before
  changing to snow later this morning. A glaze of ice on
  elevated surfaces is possible west and north of MKE. A Winter
  Weather Advisory remains in effect across Marquette, Green
  Lake, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan Counties.

- Quick round of light to occasionally moderate snow remains
  forecast late this morning and into the afternoon. Slushy
  accumulations up to one inch.

- High precip chances (65-85%) Thursday evening/night, with
  expectations for some snow to mix in with rain late overnight
  into Friday morning.

- Additional precipitation chances develop Saturday into Sunday.
  High confidence in precipitation, but confidence in
  precipitation type and placement is lower. Snow is possible
  Sunday.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 527 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Widespread drizzle and freezing drizzle has developed early this
morning just ahead of a shortwave trough from the southwest. Air
temps are at or below freezing mainly north of a line from Lone
Rock to Madison to Watertown, but will expand to the east and
south a bit. However, road temps are running a few degrees
warmer than air temps which will limit the icing potential on
roads. Nevertheless, cannot completely rule out isolated slick
spots especially on elevated surfaces this morning.

A stronger shortwave trough currently over the Mid MO River
Valley will then track across srn WI this afternoon. PVA and mid
level frontogenesis will support a band of snow that will enter
locations west of Madison around 14-15Z reaching Lake MI by
17Z. A 4-5 hour period of wet snow is expected with around an
inch or less forecast on grassy surfaces. The Winter Wx Advisory
continues until 1 PM CDT for Marquette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac,
and Sheboygan Counties.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Early this Morning through Thursday night:

Attention turns to the freezing drizzle risk tonight as some
forcing continues in the low levels but we lose our ice aloft
and maintain significant moisture in the lower 300mb. The
vertical profiles are suggestive of a more sleet type outlook
but given the lack of ice the expectation is drizzle and
freezing drizzle primarily. The highest risk will be further
north toward central WI where temperature will likely be a bit
chillier allowing for a more prolonged period for potential
icing. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the
northern tier of counties of the CWA for these icing concerns.

Later today the back half of the system in the TROWAL region
will make it way through the CWA later Wednesday morning into
the afternoon bringing a bit of snow to the region with slushy
accumulations up to a half inch or so. The system will fully
push out by the late afternoon with higher pressure pushing back
in behind the system into the evening.

During the day Thursday weather is largely expected to remain
quiet, however come Thursday night expect a quick hitting
strong low pressure system to swing through the area with strong
UL support. There will be strong midlevel WAA with this system
as well and the increasing strength of the system has lent
itself to trending toward a warmer system as well. The 540 line
has swung way north in the latest model runs with guidance
suggestive of a largely rain event. Certainly some snow on the
backside of the system is to be expected after the cold front
swings through but the air really starts to dry out behind the
front and thus snow amounts have really fallen off. Generally
expect primarily rain with some snow showers lingering behind
the front with limited accumulation expected at this time.

The other primary feature playing a role with this system as
mention were the minds aloft and sounding are somewhat
suggestive that winds may start mixing overnight and with the
strong winds aloft (45-55kts right off the deck). This could
mean Advisory level winds but the better chances remain into
Friday when the sun should allow for better mixing overall.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

Some potential for lingering snow on the back end of the low
pressure system pushing through though it should dry out by the
early afternoon at the latest. The lingering snow in the morning
would largely be associated with weak TROWAL effects. The primary
impact on Friday will likely be the winds with 45-55kt winds
aloft which may mix down given strong CAA particularly into the
day as the sun warms the surface. This will likely bring about
the potential for Advisory level winds. Winds will calm back down
as higher pressure briefly pushes back in Friday night.

However, another system will roll in Saturday and given the
cooler air being ushered in from the previous storms this next
system will likely be a colder system featuring possibly mostly
snow. Lots of uncertainty in the track persist given some phasing
issues that may change the trajectory of the system. This will
bring an extended period of precip Saturday and through much of
Sunday. The majority of this system will track through Saturday
night and Sunday. The concern with this system is the potential
for the low to track through central IL and northern IN. This
would be a colder track with lots of snow and potential for
Fgen banding being on the northwest side of the low. However, a
north track may yield more mixy precip and a south track may end
up only clipping us for the most part. The potential does exist
for a fairly large snow event if things play out with the low
track mentioned but the uncertainty still brings in a lot of
unknowns that will greatly affect the degree to which this system
will impact us. Snow would likely exit Sunday night.

Higher pressure will return Monday in a meridional pattern
which may yield some small events early next week but there is a
high degree of uncertainty at this timeframe.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 527 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Widespread drizzle has developed with freezing drizzle mainly
north of Madison but will expand to the east and south a bit
this morning. The drizzle will then become snow late this
morning and through the afternoon. Cigs will remain well below 1
kft this morning then gradually rise to MVFR Cigs this
afternoon with clearing skies afterward. Vsbys with the drizzle
and BR will range from 2-5SM, then 1-2SM with the light snow
later. VFR conditions tnt-Thu AM.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low pressure in northern Illinois tonight, reaching southwest
Michigan early Wednesday morning. Northeast winds will become
northerly tonight as the low passes over far southern Lake
Michigan. Gusty northwest winds are likely Wednesday into
Wednesday evening behind the low. Confidence for widespread
gales has increased enough to warrant a Gale Warning with the
latest guidance.

Lighter winds are likely later Wednesday night into early
Thursday as high pressure briefly moves through. Strong low
pressure is then expected to move through northern Wisconsin
into northern Michigan Thursday night into Friday. Increasing
southerly winds are expected later Thursday into Thursday night
ahead of the low. Though the cold lake may dampen the gust
potential Thursday night, southerly gales are increasingly
likely. There is a better chance for west to northwest gales on
Friday behind the low. Could even see a few gusts approach storm
force per latest models. For now we have issued the Gale Watch
for Thursday night and Friday winds with the potential for a few
storm force gusts.

Winds are expected to ease Friday night into Saturday as high
pressure moves in from the northwest. Another strong low
pressure system is likely to move through the region late in the
weekend into early next week, with another round of gales
possible.

Periods of Small Craft Conditions are expected throughout the
week with one currently in effect through Wednesday evening

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052 until 1
     PM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 PM
     Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...7 PM Thursday to 1 AM Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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