NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 150844
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
244 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temps again today, but return to near normal
  tonight into early next week.

- Chances (30-70%) of rain to light wintry mix still expected
  Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 245 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Today through Sunday night:

Warm frontal boundary lifted across southern WI overnight as a
secondary low pressure traversing across Lake Superior and
northern Lake Michigan. Seeing breezy southwesterly winds and
well above normal temps early this morning and this trend will
continue through daybreak. Despite the cloud cover, 50s and 60s
are once again expected through the morning and into this
afternoon as ripple of mid-level vorticity ahead of the main
trough works its way across the area. While there is still
plenty of dry air aloft to contend with, do think there is a bit
more viability to seeing a band of sprinkles/light rain as seen
on some of the CAMs later this morning extending down across
east-central WI with PWATs creeping to around 0.7-0.9 inches
along the initial cold front. Overall not expecting
accumulations from this activity, if anything a few spots may
record a trace to maybe a hundredth or a few. However, gusty
northwesterly winds will build through the afternoon and
evening.

Otherwise, the secondary cold front as well as the colder
Canadian airmass sits back to the west strewn across the
Dakotas early this morning. This secondary cold front is progged
to swing through WI later today through the evening and bring
back near normal temps tonight with lows in the upper 20s and
into the 30s. Will continue to see the seasonal temps into
Sunday as high pressure works its way east-southeast into the
region. Afternoon temps only look to top off in the 40s
accompanied by breezy northwesterly winds and even colder
overnight lows in the 20s for Sunday night as the subsidence
settles overhead.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 245 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Monday through Friday:

A shortwave trough will move through the upper level flow
Monday and pass just to the south of the State while the sfc
low tracks from the Rockies into the Ohio River Valley. Mid
level forcing will be the main driver for snow and rain on the
northern edge of the Low. The mid to upper level will have the
available moisture for precip while the lower levels are a bit
drier by comparison. Uncertainty in the exact track of the low
and how transient the mid level lift is will play a role who
gets precip and how much it ends up being. The deterministic
Euro is lightly further south than the rest of the models.
Overall QPF and POPs have shifted slightly further north with
this run of Guidance so its not surprising to see 50% POPs sneak
back into the far southern counties. This has brought up precip
amounts just a tad, around a tenth of an inch clipping our
southwest. The better lift and moisture remain to our south
overall, but this slight shift is worth noting.

Precip type comes into question more as we get closer to
Monday. The GFS soundings favor a solution that includes more
snow while the EURO favors more rain. The NAM, CAN and SREF fall
in the middle of these two extremes. Looking at the available
soundings the culprit for these differences is where the
freezing line is. The GFS has the mid level zero degree line
much further south than the Euro. All of southern Wisconsin is
below the zero degree line for this run on the GFS. Then the
positive energy (warm air) at the sfc is then what creates a
rain/snow mix. Now this isnt a done deal it is just one model
and a sounding, but this will be something to keep an eye on as
we head into the weekend. Where is our zero degree line and does
our negative energy out way positive energy at the sfc. Still
not expecting much snow from this system as a whole regardless
of where the zero degree line is. Little to no accumulations are
expected.

High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday bringing dry and
quiet conditions again. Then we look to Thursday and Friday for
our next system. There still appears to be some phasing issues
with troughs at 500 mb, but at the sfc we're looking at a
Colorado Low/Panhandle Hook. Track does vary quiet a bit here,
which will impact the how much rain we will get and how long it
will last.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 245 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

High clouds and breezy southwest winds have settled into
southern WI early this morning, but a cold front will gradually
works it way across the area later this morning and bring gusty
northwesterly winds. While cannot rule out a few isolated
sprinkles along this initial cold frontal passage, it expected
to remain mostly dry as northwest winds increase to around
20-25kt through the afternoon. The colder airmass will be
delayed until a secondary cold front pushes through this
evening/tonight. Overall despite the cold fronts and mix of mid
to upper-level cloud cover, mainly expecting VFR conditions to
through this period with gusty northwesterly winds being the
main aviation concern.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 240 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Breezy southwesterly winds early this morning will become more
northwesterly as a secondary low pressure treks across Lake
Superior and northern Lake Michigan through the morning. This
will drag a cold front across the lake into the afternoon along
with stronger northwesterly winds shift into this evening and
continuing into Sunday. Expecting winds gusts around 30 kt with
a few gale force gusts possible in the northern third of the
open waters as well as along the eastern lakeshore area during
this timeframe. Still do not have high enough confidence for
gusts exceeding 34 kt for extended period, thus will continue
to hold off on gale headlines at this time. Then winds begin to
ease as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest Sunday night
through Monday. Another low pressure is expected to track from
the Central Plains to south of Lake Michigan through midweek.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...noon
     Saturday to 4 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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