NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 020912
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- East central WI may see some light snow Saturday morning, no
  accumulation expected.

- A quick burst of snow will be possible over east central WI
  Sunday evening, but this area of snow could expand to larger
  portions of southern WI. Minor accumulations expected.

- Polar air to remain over southern WI through the weekend, then
  relatively mild temperatures for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 200 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Today through Saturday night:

High pressure strengthening and pushing in overhead this morning
through the rest of today/tonight. Lower clouds will likely
stick around over the next few hours before clouds start to
break up a bit and dissipate. A period of clear to partly cloudy
skies today. Despite high pressure overhead we should see high
clouds push back in tonight with 500mb moisture sliding in from
the west.

This moisture will remain in the region through Saturday morning
with a fairly moist column overall. In addition there will
likely be a period of low to mid level WAA and perhaps even some
weak shortwave activity Saturday morning that may bring a few
snow showers to east central parts of WI. South of that region
the low level dry air looks to be too much to overcome while
toward east central WI the dry air looks much shallower with
potential to be overcome a bit more. Light snow possible but
remains unlikely and even in the case it does snow it would be
quite light with no accumulation expected. Later Saturday into
Saturday evening moisture at all levels slides out likely
resulting in clearing conditions certainly by the evening hours,
especially as stronger high pressure pushes in.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 300 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

A clipper will cross northern WI Sunday evening, but will likely
bring a brief period of light snow to east central WI and possibly
all the way down to the IL border. Temperatures will be on the
way up, so this will help limit the snow ratios. This could also
be light rain for some areas of southern WI.

Above normal temps are expected from Monday through Saturday.
Thursday looks warmest with the potential for highs in the mid to
upper 40s. A weak shortwave with warm air advection over central
or southern WI could bring some light rain on Tuesday.
Temperatures in the lower parts of the atmosphere will be close to
the freezing mark, so a rain-snow mix is possible.

Precip (rain) associated with a shortwave trough crossing the
Ohio River Valley may brush southeast WI on Thursday. Meanwhile, a
trough crossing Ontario will drag a cold front across the Upper
Great Lakes. It will be a matter of phasing that determines how
much precip for southern WI. Right now, the GFS phases the upper
waves and brings higher precip amounts.

Models diverge for next weekend but have a signal for a deeper low
by late next weekend. The ECWMF (including ensembles) is showing
a stronger upper trough that will swing across the Ontario/MN
border and Lake Superior Saturday and deepen over the Lower Great
Lakes, and then bring much colder air behind it with possible
light snow Sat nt. The GFS has a more amplified upper trough out
west as it crosses the Northern Plains and deepens that low over
the Midwest next weekend.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 215 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Areas of MVFR CIGS continue early this morning but CIGS are
gradually expected to start dissipating and we are already
starting to see some of that across central WI. VFR conditions
should return by mid morning to most of southern WI. A period of
clear to partly cloudy skies today will be quickly followed by
some higher CIGS moving back in with moisture pushing in.
Midlevel CIGS overnight remaining VFR. Saturday morning we may
see brief periods of MVFR CIGS toward central WI but likely
remaining VFR for most places, if not everywhere. CIGS will
clear back out by Saturday evening. Otherwise light west to
northwest winds expected through the TAF period.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 315 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Brisk west northwest winds will continue today, then lighter
winds will take hold for the weekend. This will occur as deep
low pressure around 28.9 inches continues to gradually weaken
over Hudson Bay, while a ridge of high pressure around 30.1
inches extends from Minnesota into the Ohio Valley. Moderate
freezing spray will continue over eastern portions of the lake
into this morning.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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