NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 211152
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
652 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect from through early
  Thursday afternoon for a High Swim Risk at beaches in
  Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties. Another Beach Hazard
  Statement may be needed tonight through Saturday for easterly
  onshore flow.

- Expect a gradual warming trend through the Memorial Day weekend.

- Rain chances (40-70%) return Friday evening and night, with
  lower chances (10-20%) through the holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 646 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A Beach Hazard Statement for a High Swim Risk continues into the
early afternoon today for Milwaukee, Racine, Kenosha Counties.
Northeast winds will ease a bit this afternoon, allowing for
moderate to low swim risk conditions through the afternoon, but
easterly winds are expected to pick up again tonight and drive
further high waves onshore.

Another Beach Hazard Statement will likely be needed tonight and
may continue into Saturday as gusty east winds will continue
through that time.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1130 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Tonight through Thursday Night:

Mid and high level clouds will persist overnight, with mostly
cloudy skies expected Thursday as an area of warm air advection
aloft moves through. Despite the forcing from the warm air
advection, dry weather is expected tomorrow due to very dry
conditions in the lowest 8-10 kft. Not out of the question for a
few sprinkles, but most locations will likely remain dry. The
clouds will assist in keeping temps below normal Thursday,
particularly near Lake Michigan under onshore winds. Lingering
clouds and easterly winds are expected Thursday night, with
temps a couple degrees milder than tonight.

A high swim risk continues into early Thursday afternoon for
Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha counties. Life threatening waves
and currents are expected.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1130 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

Surface low pressure is expected to approach from the southwest
Friday, then pass by to the southeast Friday night into early
Saturday. This system still looks likely to bring some rain to
southern Wisconsin, though there are some uncertainties. One
concern is there is a decent spread among models with the track
and intensity of the low, with farther south and weaker
solutions suggesting lower precip chances for southern
Wisconsin. Another concern is the potential for some dry air in
the mid- levels, which could also limit overall rain chances. In
general though, there remains enough agreement among models to
keep 40-70% chances for rain Friday evening/night, with precip
winding down early Saturday.

The upcoming holiday weekend looks largely dry, though models
do hint at a couple weak shortwaves rolling through at some
point. With milder temps and higher dewpoints pushing into the
area Sat-Mon, not out of the question to see a few showers and
storms if the forcing with the waves is strong enough.

Warm temps and higher dewpoints will persist into mid-week, with
some instability as well suggesting the potential for more
shower/storm chances if a wave or two pushes through the area.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 650 CDT Thu May 21 2026

Expect VFR conditions today amid moderate northeast to east
winds. After some sun this morning, expect high clouds to cause
BKN to OVC conditions through the day.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1130 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

High pressure of 30.4 inches centered over Lake Superior this
evening will will gradually shift eastward through the end of
the week. Persistent east to northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots
are expected through Friday, with winds becoming northerly on
Saturday as low pressure of 29.8 inches lifts northeast into
southern Michigan. Winds could increase a bit Friday night into
Saturday, depending on the exact track and strength of the low,
though winds are likely to stay below gale force. Southerly
winds are then expected to develop early next week.

Though waves may briefly subside during the day Thursday, Small
Craft Advisory conditions will persist much of the time through
Friday night from North Point Light southward. Advisory
conditions will likely gradually expand northward Thursday night
into Friday. Changes to the ongoing advisory will likely be
eventually needed as confidence increases in advisory
conditions for later in the week.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM
     Thursday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644...10 PM Thursday to 10 PM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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