NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 030545
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for rain and strong thunderstorms capable
  of large hail and localized flooding Friday evening into
  Saturday morning.

- Seasonal temps and dry Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Today through Saturday night:

Temps will continue to fall through this morning behind the
cold front with lingering cloud cover. However, post-cold front
conditions will not last long as another upper-level trough is
progged to dig across the Plains during the day on today. This
looks to bring a weak surface low up from the front range of the
CO Rockies through MO an overhead of WI. Most models are in
agreement on this track, which keeps southern WI generally in
the easterly surface of this system. However, given the 850mb
WAA paired with the mid-level vorticity and nose of 35-40 kt LLJ
looks to be enough forcing to tap in the elevated CAPE later
Friday evening into early Friday morning. 00z HREF progs mean
MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg to nose into southern portions of
the area and pair with +40 kt of deep shear looks to be enough
for a few strong to severe thunderstorms for late this evening
into Saturday morning. Mainly looking at hail up to around an
inch given the elevated nature of the environment, but cannot
completely rule out a strong gust punching through the low-level
stable enough, especially for areas along the WI/IL border and
if the the warm front lifts a bit further north. Overall, it
will be scattered coverage and much of the activity wrapping up
by 09z-12z.

Another thing to keep an eye on is the rainfall and potential
for localized ponding and flooding. much of southern WI picked
up around 1-2 inches of rain yesterday, and additional rain
persisting over areas that saw heavier rainfall today will be
susceptible.

Otherwise, Saturday will see additional light scattered showers
during the day at time with the wrap around of the departing
low and with the mid-level trough.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

After a fairly active pattern Sunday through the start of next
week looks fairly quiet as high pressure builds in behind the
late week low. Influence from this high persist through Tuesday
and will bring seasonal temps and mostly dry conditions. Then
the pattern becomes more active by the middle of next week with
a trough projected to dig across the central CONUS. Thus
increased PoP chances return Wednesday into the end of the week,
but may also see warmer temps as well.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

LIFR/IFR ceilings will persist overnight with westerly winds.
The stratus deck looks to gradually slide east/erode through the
late morning. Then looking at lighter winds mid-day turn more
easterly through the evening as the low lifts northeast over
southern WI. This will bring increase shower and thunderstorm
chances to southern WI terminals after 00z Sat through 09-12z
Sat. With any shower/storm activity expect lower ceilings,
visibility and even some hail at times overnight. Much of the
thunderstorm activity looks to lift out by daybreak with
westerly winds developing behind the departing low and cold
front.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Winds continue the weaken as the low lifts northeastward
through the morning. Will see west-northwesterly winds turn more
easterly tonight as low pressure lifts from the Plains and
across middle section of the lake. May see small craft
conditions develop with this passing system. Also accompanying
this system will be scattered showers and thunderstorms with a
few stronger ones producing hail possible into Saturday
morning. Then westerly winds develop later Saturday before
weakening again as high pressure begins to build into the region
for Sunday through the start of next week.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until
     4 AM Friday.

&&

$$

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