NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 010435
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1035 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20 to 30 percent chances for very light lake effect snow for
  the lake counties Sunday morning.

- Gradually warming trend through next week with periodic
  precipitation chances through the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1035 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Tonight through Wednesday:

Weak cold advection, AVA, and subsidence will eventually lead to
partial clearing tnt although lake effect clouds via nely flow
should maintain cloudy conditions over said region. Delta T of
15-17C will eventually develop but the airmass will become
increasingly drier with PWATs falling below 0.20 inches. Fcst
soundings only show a low potential for measurable lake effect
snow for Sun AM. Will continue 20-30 percent chances for lake
effect snow over far ern WI tnt-Sun AM.

Otherwise high pressure around 1037 mb will track from the nrn
Great Lakes to the lower Great Lakes for Sun-Sun nt. Some mid
level cloud cover may occur Sun nt-Mon via mid level warm
advection but no precipitation is forecast. Temps will remain
below normal for Sun but will rise above normal on Mon as lgt
ssely winds develop.

For late Mon nt-Tue wnwly flow aloft will become zonal with mid
level warm advection ensuing. A warm front will also extend from
low pressure over the srn Great Plains to central IL, IN, and
Ohio. North of the front, warm, moist advection and PWATs
increasing to 0.55-0.75 inches will bring 50-70 percent chances
for light rain. For Tue nt-Wed, the Ensemble ECMWF attempts to
build high pressure into the area, thereby keeping a frontal
boundary and rain chances to the south. However, the GEFS
continues to support a shortwave trough approaching from the
west and passing Wed nt, while at the sfc, low pressure tracks
from ern KS to lower MI. Will stick with the NBM rain chances of
30-50 percent for now.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1035 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Thursday through Saturday:

The Ens ECMWF remains a slower version of the GEFS for this
period. The GEFS shortwave trough and low pressure area that
would bring rain to srn WI for Wed-Wed nt occurs with the Ens ECMWF
on Thu so will maintain NBM rain chances of 40 percent.
Cyclogenesis is then expected over the Great Plains late in the
week which will track west and north of the region bringing a
period of sly winds and likely rain followed by a cold front. As
stated earlier, the evolution is quicker with the GEFS than the
Ens ECMWF and will stick with the NBM rain chances of 50-60
percent for Fri-Fri nt. Smaller rain chances then linger into
Sat. Well above normal temps are expected for this period.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1035 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

MVFR Cigs will continue tnt-Sun AM over far ern WI due to
onshore winds and lake effect clouds. Only 20-30 percent
chances of very light lake effect snow are forecast. VFR
conditions will then take hold over ern WI for Sunday afternoon
and evening, while VFR conditions will continue tnt into Sunday
night over south central WI.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1035 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Modest north to northeast winds tonight will become light and
variable Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as high pressure
around 30.7 inches tracks from the northern Great Lakes to the
lower Great Lakes. Breezy south winds will then develop on Monday
in response to the high shifting east and low pressure moving
across far northern Ontario. A weak cold front will then bring a
return of light northeast winds by Tuesday afternoon. Waves may
reach 4 feet tonight and Sunday morning south of North Point
Lighthouse due to persistent northeast winds.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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