NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 140851
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
251 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s today and
  Saturday, but return to near normal Saturday night into early
  next week.

- Rain chances (20-50%) return Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 245 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today through Sunday:

Upper-level ridge builds across the Upper Midwest today into
Saturday bringing unseasonable warm temps. Continue to see
higher probabilities (>60%) from 00z HREF as well as NBM and
GEFS, for afternoon high temps to exceed 60F for much of
southern WI today. Tonight will be mild as well with lows in the
mid 40s to even low 50s given some help by cloud insulating the
area.

Warm temps linger into Saturday, but upper-level ridge axis
does kick east as a trough begins to dig down toward the Upper
Midwest. Accompanying this trough will be a cold front extending
south from a surface low trekking across the Hudson Bay region.
Mid-range models agree on a the cold front passing through
southern WI through late morning/early afternoon bringing a
westerly wind shift by the evening. While most models keep the
frontal passage dry for southern WI as any moisture will
contend with a stout dry-layer, still cannot rule out some
scattered light shower activity given PWATS approaching an inch
(0.7-0.9 inches) along with forcing from the front paired with a
ripple of mid-level vorticity. If anything does develop, do not
expect much accumulation from this and would range from a trace
to under a tenth of an inch. Otherwise, the colder airmass will
be delayed behind the frontal passage, thus could see temps 50s
and 60s high temps again through the first half of the day,
while temps look to dip overnight Saturday with lows back into
the upper 20s and mid 30s.

The colder airmass will settle in across southern WI for Sunday
with the prevailing upper-level northwesterly flow. Temps
return to normal with highs back into 40s and lows into the 30s.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 245 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Monday through Thursday:

Not much of a change when looking at the start of the work week.
Troughing in the eastern CONUS and a ridge across the central
CONUS with multiple shortwaves in the flow will be our starting
point for Monday. Guidance has come into better agreement after a
couple runs and has a shortwave passing just to our south Monday
late afternoon into Monday night. The sfc low looks to move from
the Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley which will keep
Wisconsin on the northern side in a stratiform precipitation
region. Due to the current path however most of the precipitation
looks to pass to our south. Far southern Wisconsin has the best
chances for precip around 30 to 40%. The CAN pushes the precip the
furthest north bringing some precip as far north as the I-94
corridor while the GFS is the other extreme keeping southern
Wisconsin largely dry. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are
waffling a bit on whether or not to give the forecast area
precip. The EURO has the most ensemble members that bring us
rain/snow. Given this, POPs may fluctuate a bit yet with the best
chances for rain being far southwestern and southern Wisconsin.
QPF amounts will be really low since the state is on the northern
fringe of the low resulting in light showers at most. Now,
normally being on the north side of the low this time of year
brings a risk for snow, but that confidence on this is even lower
than the POPs. Its likely that showers will start as rain and as
time progress into the overnight hours there could be a change
over to snow. Timing doesnt match up well with this as most
models, apart from a few Euro runs, have the precip ending before
a change over could start. So while possible any snow we get will
be flurries with little to no accumulations.

Beyond this low chance for rain Monday late afternoon through
Monday night, high pressure will descend from Canada for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Dry and quiet conditions are expected with
temperatures near normal (highs in the 40s and overnight lows in
the low 30s to upper 20s).

Thursday into Friday looks to be our next chance for measurable
precipitation. There is still quiet a bit of uncertainty for this,
but this looks to be another chance for potentially phasing
systems. A trough in Canada looks to descend into the Great Lakes
Region while a second trough in the Desert Southwest advects
northeast. Depending on the model you look at the timings vary
wildly and the strengths of each trough do too. So expect a lot
of things to change here.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 245 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure
slides further east while a cold front begins to dig down
across the Upper Midwest. Looking at southerly winds around to
below 10kt today and easing tonight. Then breezy southwesterly
winds (10-15 kt) are expected into Saturday before the cold
front pushes through southern WI late morning/early afternoon
bringing gusty (15-20 kt) west- northwesterly wind shift trough
the afternoon.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 245 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Expect moderate southerly winds to build across Lake Michigan
today as high pressure over the southeastern US continues to
slide southeastward. Winds begin to shift to the southwest into
Saturday as a secondary low pressure tracks across the Upper
Great Lakes. This will also drag a cold front across the region
through the day Saturday with west to northwesterly winds
increasing across Lake Michigan into Sunday. Winds gusts will
approach gale force during this timeframe, especially for
northeastern nearshore zones in the far northern third of the
lake Saturday night into Sunday. While potential for gales
persist, still a bit of uncertainty on exceeding 34 knots for
extended period. Thus will to hold off on any gale headlines at
this time. Winds then look to diminish into the start of next
week as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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