NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 281120
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
620 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Swim Risk and Beach Hazard Statement is in effect
  through early this afternoon, due to dangerous currents from
  onshore winds and high waves.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through early this
  afternoon, due to persistent northeast winds and high waves.

- Pleasant and dry weather the remainder of this week and into
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 620 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

High pressure over Ontario and Lake Superior will settle over
the Great Lakes today, then shift south and extend from srn WI
to nw Ohio for tnt-Fri. In the upper levels, the Omega Block
will slightly shift ewd bringing the upper ridge over WI for
tnt-Fri. Thus subsidence and dry air will reside over srn WI.
Temperatures will only warm to near 60F at the Lake MI shoreline
today with upper 70s over south central WI. The airmass will
then modify and warm for Fri.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1230 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Overnight through Friday Night:

The 500 mb amplified ridge axis should linger over the region
during this period. Some high clouds may pass through the area
overnight into this morning in southwest parts of the area.
North northeast winds will steadily increase overnight and
become northeast today, with a tightening pressure gradient and
some low level mixing during the daytime hours.

A High Swim Risk and Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through
early this afternoon for the Lake Michigan beaches in Sheboygan,
Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties. The gusty
onshore winds are expected to bring life threatening waves and
currents. Stay out of the water, and away from dangerous areas
like piers and breakwalls.

These winds should gradually weaken later in the day and into
tonight, as high pressure shifts southward into the region.
These winds should bring highs in the 60s near the lake and into
the middle to upper 70s well inland. Lows tonight should drop
into the middle to upper 40s over most of the area.

High pressure will weaken Friday as it shifts to the southeast,
with another high developing north of the region Friday night.
This will keep dry conditions going for the area, with the
potential for another backdoor cold front moving through the
area later Friday night into early Saturday morning. This may
bring increasing east to northeast winds for a time behind this
feature.

Temperatures should rebound into the lower to middle 80s inland
on Friday, with a lake breeze keeping lakeshore areas cooler.
Milder lows in the middle 50s are anticipated Friday night.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1230 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Saturday through Wednesday:

A largely benign extended forecast for southern Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is largely going to be trapped in narrow ridge between
a strong trough out in the eastern CONUS and another in the
central High Plains/Rockies. There are a few shortwave troughs
that bring some PVA aloft into state, but this varies greatly
from model to model.

At the surface, a broad area of high pressure looks to linger
across the Great Lakes region as well. This area of high
pressure looks to descend down from Canada, then move east,
gradually exiting into the eastern Great Lakes by the middle of
next week.

Given all this, we can generally expect sporadic low chance
PoPS from that upper level PVA slipping into the deterministic
and ensemble runs (roughly 10 percent or less on PoPs). High
temperatures in the lower 70s to lower 80s are anticipated, with
warmer temperatures inland with cooler near the lake shore.

Light east to southeast winds Saturday into early Monday morning
becoming light northeasterly Monday. Light northeast to east
winds continue through the rest of the extended. Winds will be
at there strongest during the afternoon, when the diurnal
heating contributes the most, and weakest (light and variable at
times) overnight into early morning hours.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 620 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR conditions today through Friday morning.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1230 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

High pressure around 30.3 inches will continue to build
southward into the Great Lakes overnight into today. Gusty
north northeast winds are expected to develop during this time,
bringing building waves to the southwestern portions of the
lake.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan for the
gusty onshore winds and building waves.

Winds will gradually diminish through the day, as the high
moves over the region. The high pressure system around 30.2
inches will remain in place through the weekend, with a few
additional weak cold fronts bringing brisk northeasterly winds
Friday night into Saturday and Sunday night in Monday. High
pressure around 30.2 inches generally remains in place through
early next week, with light and variable winds expected.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 1 PM Thursday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 PM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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