NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 240328
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
928 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously cold conditions continue through Saturday morning.
  Wind chills around negative 25 to negative 30 degrees continue
  this afternoon. Wind chills between negative 20 and negative
  35 degrees tonight, with the lowest wind chills expected in
  east- central Wisconsin.

- A Lake Michigan lake effect band will develop Saturday
  afternoon, but is expected to remain offshore through much of
  Saturday night. This band may wobble onshore from Milwaukee
  southward early Sunday morning (40 to 60 percent chance).

- Additional Cold Weather Advisory conditions possible Sunday
  night into Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 920 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

No major update to the current forecast as things remain on
track tonight.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 314 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Tonight through Sunday:

Temperatures continue to steadily rise through today, with
highs in the single digits below zero expected. Northwesterly
breezes continue, with occasional gusts to 20 mph in most
regions, and gusts up to 25 mph in east-central Wisconsin. An
Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for Ozaukee to Dodge
Counties northward through Marquette to Sheboygan Counties
through early Saturday morning, and a Cold Weather Advisory
remains in effect across the remainder of southern Wisconsin.
Expecting wind chills in the negative 25 to negative 29 degree
range across far eastern portions of southern Wisconsin tonight,
with potential for a brief dip into the negative 30 to negative
31 degree range in this region during the early morning hours
Saturday. This is highly dependent on wind gusts, which are
expected to be localized to the Lake Michigan shoreline and may
be slightly different than currently forecast. Therefore chose
not to expand the Extreme Cold Warning southward at this time.
However, trends will be monitored tonight and a short-fused
warning may be issued. Regardless of exact wind chills,
frostbite will be possible within 10 minutes. Preparedness
actions remain similar, with covering all exposed skin and
minimizing time spent outdoors.

Temperatures will improve and winds will lighten considerably
going into Saturday morning, allowing for wind chills to rise
into the negative teens by midday at the latest. Will monitor
for early cancellations, especially in southwestern Wisconsin
where winds may become calm shortly before sunrise and therefore
wind chills and air temperatures become the same. Air
temperatures are expected to rise to a high near zero inland,
and into the single digits near Lake Michigan.

Saturday evening, low pressure developing in the lower
Mississippi Valley will trigger a general convergence zone over
Lake Michigan, potentially creating a stout lake effect snow
band over central portions of the lake. As low pressure deepens
and lifts northeastward into the Appalachians, winds will shift
to northeasterly over Lake Michigan and potentially will bring
that banding inland from Milwaukee southward to Illinois into
early Sunday morning. Some mesoscale modeling is still
indicating potential for a meso-low to develop into early Sunday
morning, which would lend an extra wobble eastward and produce
steadier rates across far southeastern Wisconsin. Currently
running with 40 to 60 percent PoPs for the Sunday morning
timeframe. Still a considerable amount of uncertainty with
impacts due to the mesoscale dynamics in play, but certainly
bears watching over the next 24 hours for potential impacts to
Sunday morning travel. Low pressure continues to lift northward
through Sunday, with some snow showers (20 to 40 percent chance)
developing across far southern Wisconsin along the northern edge
of the system. Precipitation will taper off by Sunday evening as
low pressure exits and winds shift back to northwesterly.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 314 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Sunday night through Friday:

Breezy northwest winds Sunday night as low pressure to the south
exits eastward. Wind chills in the negative 20s become possible
once again, and a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed.

A cold and generally dry pattern will persist through the
extended, with continued northwest flow aloft. High pressure will
generally dominate at the surface. Highs early in the week will
be in the single digits above zero, with overnight lows in the
single digits below. Some slight moderate in temperatures is
expected mid week, ahead of a shortwave passage early Wednesday
and another on Thursday. This may bring some very light
precipitation to the region, but an overall dry airmass should
limit anything impactful.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 920 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Light west to northwest winds tonight with slightly breezier
conditions toward east central WI. Otherwise VFR conditions
expected through most of the TAF period. Saturday evening/night
expect snow chances to increase with a system grazing the
southeast with a chance for some lake effect to possibly impact
far southeast WI as well. This is likely only concerning for
KENW with some accumulating snow possible. Some Lowered VSBYS
and CIGS would be expected but elsewhere, outside of perhaps
some low CIGS sneaking into KJVL or KMKE for a short period,
VFR conditions are expected.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 314 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

High pressure will build through the Great Lakes region tonight
into Saturday, allowing northwesterly winds to slowly diminish
this evening and become light and variable overnight. A Heavy
Freezing Spray warning remains in effect through late tonight
for continued elevated wave conditions and frigid temperatures.
High pressure will slide eastward into Sunday morning, with low
pressure developing in the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will
allow winds to shift northeasterly, then back to northwesterly
into Sunday night as low pressure exits. Winds continue to back
to westerly into Monday as the low lifts into the Northeast.

High pressure builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley by
Tuesday, with an area of low pressure over the Hudson Bay.
Expect southwest winds Tuesday, then turning back to northwest
as the parent low's cold front moves through. Northwest winds
continue through the end of the week. Additional freezing spray
potential develops Monday night through Thursday. Occasionally
heavy freezing spray is possible.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Extreme Cold Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060 until 6 AM Saturday.

     Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060...6 AM Saturday to noon Saturday.

     Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-
     WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until noon Saturday.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
     until 3 AM Saturday.

&&

$$

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