NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 152213
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
413 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will develop across southern Wisconsin this
  afternoon and evening, moving west to east (70 to 90 percent
  chances). Steady light snow will end into the late evening
  hours, with patchy freezing drizzle (~20% chance) and
  scattered snow showers (50 to 70% chance) then expected
  through much of the overnight hours.

- Early Friday morning, an additional wave of steady snow is
  expected to progress west to east across the region (80 to 90%
  chance). Best chances for steady moderate snow are north of
  the I-90/I-94 corridor. After this wave of snow moves through,
  an additional period of scattered snow showers (40 to 60%
  chance) and freezing drizzle is expected (20 to 30% chance).
  Freezing drizzle will end west to east through the morning
  hours.

- Scattered snow showers are expected to continue Friday
  afternoon through Saturday (30 to 60% chance). A few showers
  may become locally heavy Friday afternoon along a frontal
  passage.

- Below-normal temperatures continue this weekend through the
  beginning of next week. Coldest temps and wind chills expected
  Sunday through Tuesday, and may approach Cold Weather Advisory
  criteria (20 degrees below zero).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 413 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

Low pressure developing across northern Minnesota will dig
slightly southeastward tonight, as a shortwave propagates
northward from Missouri into southern Wisconsin. Snow has
already begun to develop across central Iowa as these features
interact, and expectations are for snow to bloom northeastward
into southern Wisconsin this evening (best chances of 70 to 90
percent between 6 PM and 10 PM). Around an inch of snow is
expected. As snow exits to the east tonight, lower clouds and a
dry mid- level punch (within the dendritic growth zone) may
result in patchy freezing drizzle (~20% chances). Confidence in
freezing drizzle is low during the 10 PM to 3 AM timeframe due
to expectations for dry air near the surface (which would
prevent freezing drizzle from developing). Weak pockets of
moisture within the dendritic growth zone may also result in
scattered snow showers during the overnight hours (30 to 60
percent chance).

The developing low pressure system slides into northern
Wisconsin into early Friday morning, developing a weak warm
frontal feature across southern Wisconsin and increasing the
moisture and corresponding precipitation chances across the
region. Due to continued dry air in the mid-levels, freezing
drizzle chances increase as surface moisture increases during
the early morning hours (~3 AM onward). Models diverge in the
timing and intensity of a southeastward-moving warm frontal
feature Friday morning. However, confidence in pooling of low
level moisture and an eventual northwest to southeast moving
band of snowfall is high (70 to 90 percent chances). Expecting
up to a glaze of icing on untreated surfaces, and an additional
inch of snowfall. This band of snow moves offshore into Lake
Michigan mid-morning, with freezing drizzle ending as well.

Isolated, intermittent snow showers are then possible through
the remainder of the morning hours Friday. Going into the
afternoon, a brief period of weak (<50 J/kg MUCAPE) instability
may result in some of these snow showers becoming locally
intense with lowered visibilities and a quick few tenths of an
inch of snow. A cold front will bring a return to Arctic air
during the later afternoon hours, and showers along this frontal
passage are most likely to produce the local enhanced rates.
Temperatures will fall quickly from near freezing to the low 20s
Friday evening, with lows in the low teens expected by daybreak
Saturday. Low pressure occludes and sits across eastern Lake
Superior through Friday night, allowing for continued flurries
and light snow showers through the remainder of the overnight
hours (convective snow showers will weaken after sunset).

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 413 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

The occluded surface low will still be over the Upper Great Lakes
on Saturday. A little shortwave rounding the base of the upper
trough will slide through northern IL or southern WI on Saturday.
One more round of light snow or flurries should overspread srn WI
Sat afternoon.

That upper low will finally open up and push eastward Saturday
night into Sunday, which will allow the Great Lakes surface low to
exit. The next surface low, tied to a modest mid level shortwave
trough dropping out of Manitoba, will cross the Upper Great Lakes
on Sunday. The associated surface trough/cold front is expected
to swing across srn WI Sunday afternoon-evening and this may pack
a punch in terms of strength of an arctic front and strength of
the shortwave. This one will be watched for its snow squall
potential.

So our next round of arctic air will be overhead Monday. The
forecast high is in the single digits and lows Mon nt should be
below zero. Gusty westerly winds will keep wind chills low
Monday through Tuesday morning as well. Wind chill values may dip
below -20F (Wind Chill Advisory criteria) in a few spots early
Monday morning and again early Tuesday morning. This period looks
dry, but flurries would be possible with any low clouds within
this cyclonic flow, and also with any subtle shortwaves.

Temperatures will rebound a little bit on Tuesday as another
upper wave approaches. This would strengthen the baroclinic zone
between the sfc low approaching from Alberta and the high sitting
over the central Plains. An area of warm air advection will bring
a swath of snow to WI, although there is still uncertainty about
where - northern WI or southern WI. This would occur Tue nt-Wed
AM. Yet another round of snow is possible over the Midwest
Thursday afternoon-night.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 413 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR ceilings will gradually lower through tonight, with light
snow progressing west to east late this evening into tonight and
resulting in lowered visibility (~4 SM) and approximately an
inch of accumulations. Southwesterly winds are expected to
continue throughout tonight, becoming gusty around 20 kt. Late
tonight into early Friday morning, patchy freezing drizzle and
isolated snow showers may develop in southwest Wisconsin,
spreading eastward into southeastern Wisconsin around sunrise.
700-1500 ft ceilings are expected with this activity. A glaze
of ice and traces of snow are possible.

Chances for freezing drizzle and snow increase (~30% chance and
70-90% chance, respectively) into the early morning hours
Friday as winds shift westerly. Expect an additional inch of
snow and up to a glaze of ice. Snow is expected to progress
northwest to southeast through the morning hours Friday. Snow
chances diminish (30-50%) and freezing drizzle ends, but
additional MVFR snow showery activity is expected through at
least Friday evening.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 413 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Breezy southwesterly winds will continue to build over Lake
Michigan through the evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Front will push across Lake Michigan overnight with breezy
westerly winds setting up into the weekend as low pressure digs
down from northern Manitoba through western Ontario before
settling over Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan by Friday
evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this evening
through Friday evening for southern Wisconsin nearshore regions
due to these winds. The low pressure will meander around this
area into Saturday with westerly winds continuing across the
lake. Then the low pressure will gradually weaken as it shifts
east Saturday evening allowing winds to briefly weaken overnight
into Sunday as high pressure slides south through the Central
Plains.

Winds are then expected to shift more southwesterly and increase
for Sunday as another low pressure system deepens as it tracks
into the Lake Superior region Sunday afternoon/evening. The
associated cold front will sweep across Lake Michigan as the low
pressure quickly pushes east into Monday. Expecting stronger
northwesterly winds to develop behind the departing low and cold
front Sunday night through Monday. There will be a potential
for gales during this timeframe and will monitor to see if this
gale trend continues. Winds hazardous for small craft are
expected in southern Wisconsin nearshore regions. Otherwise,
low pressure kicks east later Monday with another high pressure
building into the region for Tuesday.

Given the colder Arctic airmass settling over the area and brisk
winds, expect freezing spray concerns across Lake Michigan this
weekend and continuing into the next week as well with even colder
temps.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 PM
     Thursday to 9 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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