NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 281149 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
549 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- West to east swath of 1 to 3 inches of snow expected across
  southern Wisconsin this afternoon. A narrow band exceeding 3
  inches remains likely, but uncertainty on exact area.

- Gradually warming trend through next week with periodic
  precipitation chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 549 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

The frontogenesis with the snow band is starting to set up to
the west across southern Minnesota into northeast Iowa. The
northern edge of this area may become fairly sharply defined, as
north winds push dry air against it. This may also help push
this band a little further to the south than currently forecast
into today.

Thus, the heavier snow rates of up to 1 inch per hour and 2 to
4 inch snow accumulations may end up a row of counties to the
south of the current forecast, perhaps a little more. Most of
the area should still see snow and 1 to 2 inch accumulations as
this pushes through the area later this morning through early to
middle evening.

For now, will wait for some of the 12Z models to come in and
get one final look at where the best frontogenesis sets up
before deciding on any Winter Weather Advisories.

After the main snow ends during the evening, there may be a
period of lake effect snow with a single band that occurs for
locations near Lake Michigan tonight into Sunday morning. There
is uncertainty with where the single band may set up, and it
may stay offshore. For now, kept 20 percent chances for snow
showers for this period, and will see how things trend with
this potential.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1204 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Tonight through Saturday Night:

Gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold front will diminish
toward morning and then veer north during the day. Temperatures
are slower to drop since the arctic air is taking its time, but
lows are still expected to drop into the lower 20s for most
areas.

Snow will spread into southern WI from the west from late
morning through early afternoon, which is a later arrival time
than previous forecasts. Steady snow is not expected in Madison
until around noon. Dry air will initially limit snowfall
reaching the ground and also snowfall rates. Once saturation
occurs, snow should last 4 to 6 hours and then diminish from
west to east during the early evening.

An east-west band of higher snowfall rates (potential of brief
1 inch per hour and IFR conditions) should develop along/north
of I-94 and then exit to the east. There continues to be a high
degree of uncertainty of where the heavier snow band will track.

Sloped frontogenesis from central IL to northern WI, weak
vorticity advection, and the left exit region of the upper jet
is coming together across South Dakota late this evening and
this will translate across southern MN and into southern WI. The
forcing is not perfectly organized/stacked, but should align
enough to give everyone at least a dusting of snow. The focused
band of snow, wherever it lands, will be associated with 850-700mb
frontogenesis. The 00Z HREF is showing a lower probability of
1" per hour snowfall rates than the 12Z run.

The forecast continues to evolve and models continue to
struggle, even as the snow is already beginning in South
Dakota. High pressure is quickly building into the Upper
Midwest, with a decent push of dry, arctic air southward
tonight. This will be difficult for frontogenesis to override,
thus a southward shift may be developing. The NAM initialized
with its precip shield too far north and the HRRR seems to be
trending too far north at this moment as well. We will keep an
eye on trends and snowfall rates through the night. Overall, a 3
inch snowfall in 6 hours does not warrant an advisory, but if
there are 1 inch per hour snowfall rates for a couple hours,
then a small area may need one.

Snow will taper off from west to east Saturday evening. Winds
will start to shift northeast over Lake Michigan, and the
convergence zone may help a lake effect snow band to develop.
The intensity of the band should not be strong due to minimal
temp diff between air and lake, but nevertheless it may brush
the shoreline of southeast WI late Saturday night. Lows Sat nt
should range from single digits inland to around 20 southeast.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1204 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Sunday through Saturday:

Arctic high pressure will finish building into Wisconsin on
Sunday, sliding eastward and allowing winds to return to
southeasterly overnight. Expecting highs in the mid 20s to near
freezing on Sunday, with lows in the mid teens overnight.

Monday, southeasterly flow returns and winds increase as low
pressure deepens across Ontario, bringing temperatures back into
the upper 30s to low 40s. As low pressure occludes across the
Hudson Bay Monday night, expect its trailing cold front to begin
to interact with ejecting low pressure from the southern High
Plains, allowing for a region of warm frontogenesis to build
across the Middle Mississippi Valley and expand northeastward into
southern Wisconsin overnight into Tuesday. With lows expected to
be below freezing Monday night, potential develops for WAA aloft
to bring in a period of freezing rain and sleet at the onset of
precipitation, with snow towards central Wisconsin.

If phasing between the northern front and the southern Plains
system is strong enough as currently portrayed on the major
models, surface WAA will allow for temperatures to climb to near
40 degrees across southern Wisconsin during the day Tuesday,
allowing most regions to transition to rain or a rain/snow mix.
Rain and snow will taper off into Tuesday night as low pressure in
the southern Plains ejects eastward and a ridge of high pressure
builds into the Upper Midwest. Expect lows in the upper 20s.

Wednesday, some return flow from the Gulf Coast states may allow
for additional cyclogenesis over the Lower Mississippi Valley as
low pressure develops in the lee of the Montana Rockies. Between
these two features, general lift may develop across southern
Wisconsin, bringing back chances for precipitation (20 to 30%
chance). As cyclogenesis completes and the resultant low
progresses northeastward, more widespread precipitation is
possible Wednesday night (50-60%). With temperatures expected to
remain just above freezing throughout the overnight time period,
expecting primarily rain with a few snowflakes mixing in toward
central Wisconsin.

Active pattern remains in place through Thursday and into Friday as
low pressure ejects from Montana through the Upper Midwest.
Timing and intensity remains in question across models, as
multiple shortwaves embedded in the mean flow may phase with the
primary low and intensify it at various points in its development.
General PoPs in the 20-40% range continue through Saturday due to
these uncertainties. However, confidence is high in this period
primarily being focused on rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 549 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

The snow band is starting to set up to the west across southern
Minnesota into northeast Iowa. This band may end up pushing a
little further to the south than currently forecast into today.
Thus, the heavier snow rates of up to 1 inch per hour and 2 to 4
inch snow accumulations may end up a row of counties to the
south of the current forecast, perhaps a little more. Most of
the area should still see snow and 1 to 2 inch accumulations as
this pushes through the area later this morning through early to
middle evening.

Visibility of 1 to 2 miles is expected with the snow, perhaps
down to 1/2 to 3/4 mile at times in heavier snow bands. Ceilings
should drop into the 1500 to 2000 foot AGL range as well. Winds
will remain light out of the north to northeast later this
morning into this evening.

After the main snow ends during the evening, there may be a
period of lake effect snow that occurs for terminals near Lake
Michigan tonight into Sunday morning. There is uncertainty with
where the band may set up and it may stay offshore. Kept some
2000 foot AGL ceilings for the lakeshore terminals for now, and
will see how things trend with this potential.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 549 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Gusty northwest winds early this morning will become north to
northeast and moderate today into tonight, as strong high
pressure around 30.7 inches builds into the Upper Midwest. This
high will gradually slide east Sunday into Monday. Expect
lighter winds Sunday into Sunday night, before becoming south to
southeast on Monday into Monday night. Winds may then become
northeast to east toward the middle of next week.

For the nearshore waters, waves may reach Small Craft Advisory
levels at times later tonight into Sunday morning south of North
Point Lighthouse, and again Monday afternoon into Tuesday north
of Port Washington. Waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels
again Wednesday night into Friday.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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