NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 081025 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
525 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM CDT this morning.

- Warmer temperatures today and Saturday. Cooler near the lake
  this afternoon with a southeast lake breeze.

- A clipper system brings rain chances (65 to 75 percent) Monday
  night into Tuesday night. A few thunderstorms will be
  possible (mainly Tuesday afternoon), but no strong to severe
  storms are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 525 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM CDT this
morning for all of southern Wisconsin. Lows in the lower to
middle 30s will allow for frost to develop. Cover or bring
indoors any sensitive plants.

Light to modest south to southwest winds are expected today, as
low pressure moves from northern Minnesota into western Lake
Superior. The weak warm air advection and some moisture with
daytime heating per forecast soundings may result in scattered
sprinkles this afternoon. Low levels will remain dry, so think
any precipitation will be sprinkles versus showers. Highs
should reach the middle to upper 60s inland, with a southeast
lake breeze turning temperatures cooler near Lake Michigan.

Scattered sprinkles may occur tonight into Sunday morning, as a
cold front moves southeast across the area. Forecast soundings
continue to show some modest moisture but will be up against dry
low levels. There may be some sprinkles or isolated showers
Saturday afternoon, as weak differential CVA tries to work
through the area. Kept the afternoon dry for now. Gusty west
northwest winds are expected Saturday, with highs in the middle
to upper 60s.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Today through Saturday:

Areas of frost are still expected in the region early this
morning, with nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies continuing
for the next several hours. Some high altitude clouds will
eventually make their approach towards dawn and slow the
cooling trend.

Still expecting daytime highs in the 60s to around 70 Today and
Saturday. Saturday should feature breezy W to NW winds, preventing
the formation of a lake breeze and allowing the warmth to spread
to the shoreline. For Today the weaker SW winds should allow a
SSE lake breeze to form, likely only ventilating the nearest ~5
miles from the shoreline thru mid afternoon, then making
further progress as the synoptic winds weaken late today.
Expecting cooler temps (in the 50s) along the immediate
shoreline due to this lake breeze.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Saturday night through Thursday:

Northwest winds decelerate and sky cover decreases Saturday night,
with some slight potential for frost development towards the
northwest corner of the CWA (towards central WI, low temps in the
mid 30s possible), likely too warm elsewhere. High temperatures
around 60 degrees expected Sunday, with a redeveloping NW
breeze. Some potential for a weak lake breeze to push against
this synoptic flow and hold shoreline temperatures to the mid /
low 50s, though our current forecast (best guess) spreads 60
degree highs to the shoreline. Dry weather looking likely as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. Better potential for
frost in the northwest half of the CWA (lows in the low to mid
30s) Sunday night, with calm winds and clear skies looking
likely.

High pressure passes overhead Monday with temperatures holding
steady (around 60) for inland areas and weak synoptic winds. As
such, an easterly lake breeze will likely hold shoreline high
temps to the low 50s. Dry weather continues.

ECMWF and GFS solutions remain in agreement on a clipper system
passing the region on Tuesday, delivering rain chances (65-75%)
late Monday night through Tuesday night. The rain will only
last a fraction of this timeframe (keeping the time window wide
to account for model dispersion) with the majority of model QPF
falling in the daytime hours Tuesday for the time being. The
fast moving nature of this system will limit it's residence
time, yielding only 30% chances for reaching or exceeding 0.5
inches of rain (based off the latest GEFS guidance); this is a
slight increase from the 20% chance that the GEFS provided on
prior runs so we'll continue to monitor trends. Though
thunderstorms will be possible at times (esp Tuesday afternoon),
the fast approach / exit of the system prevents it from drawing
gulf moisture and sufficient instability, hence we do not
expect any strong to severe storms with this system.

Dry weather expected Wednesday as high pressure tracks through
the region behind the departing clipper system. Ridging in the jet
stream is expected to gradually build into the Midwestern CONUS
through late next week, yielding a warming trend.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 525 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Light to modest south to southwest winds are expected today, as
low pressure moves from northern Minnesota into western Lake
Superior. Some middle to high clouds may move through this
morning, with scattered to broken clouds around 5000 to 7000
feet AGL this afternoon. Scattered sprinkles may occur this
afternoon. A southeast lake breeze is expected this afternoon
for terminals near Lake Michigan.

Scattered sprinkles may occur tonight into Sunday morning, as a
cold front moves southeast across the area. There may be some
sprinkles or isolated showers Saturday afternoon. Gusty west
northwest winds are expected Saturday, with scattered to broken
clouds around 5000 feet AGL.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Weak high pressure of 30.0 inches slides further away across the
southeastern CONUS overnight. Meanwhile, broad low pressure
around 29.5 inches lingers over Hudson Bay. Light southwest winds
expected over Lake Michigan overnight, turning due south and
accelerating through Today. A cold front extending southwest of
the low will sweep across the lake Saturday, with breezy
southwest winds ahead of it and northwest winds arriving behind
it.

High pressure around 30.3 inches tracks southeastward across
Manitoba Canada Sunday, then the Great lakes region on Monday.
Relatively light and variable winds are expected through this
period.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Frost Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 8 AM
     Friday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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