NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 150310 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
910 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temps again Saturday, but return to near normal
  Saturday night into early next week.

- Chance (25-50%) of light wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 910 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Temperatures have dropped in the northeast forecast area this
evening due to lower dewpoints, light winds, and mostly clear
skies. Even seeing some patchy fog. Clouds will continue to
push in over the next few hours though, with increasing
southwest winds resulting in higher temps and dewpoints. This
should bring an end to any fog concerns by late evening or early
tonight. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for the
remainder of the night.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 230 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Tonight through Saturday night:

A low pressure trough will approach from the Northern Plains
tonight. A southwesterly low level jet will ramp up as it lifts
through southern WI. Meanwhile, mid level vorticity advection
and upper divergence from the entrance region of an upper jet
will also produce rising motion. In most instances, we would see
elevated showers out of this, but the 850-500mb air will be too
dry tonight. Just some mid- high clouds are expected overhead.
It will be a mild night, with low temps in the lower 50s, except
upper 40s toward central WI.

Winds will shift to the west Saturday morning as the trough
moves overhead. The surface trough will strengthen as it crosses
Lake Superior in the morning, which will enhance the pressure
gradient and cold air advection behind the trough/front. Expect
gusty northwest winds to develop in southern WI by midday. Gusts
up to 30 mph are expected at times during the afternoon.

Temperatures should have a chance to see 60s by late Saturday
morning, and probably upper 60s along the IL border. If clouds
are too thick or stick around longer than anticipated, the high
temps would be a little cooler.

Winds will diminish but not fully decouple Saturday night. This
means that a northwest breeze will persist. Lows will be around
30.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 230 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Sunday through Friday:

Brisk west-northwest winds will continue on Sunday, with peak
gusts around 25 mph mainly east of Madison. Highs will be around
44 degrees, which is around normal for mid November. Lows Sunday
night will be in the lower to mid 20s inland.

On Monday, a piece of a mid level shortwave trough crossing the
central Rockies will break away and cross the Plains while
weakening. The associated (but weak) surface low should have a
swath of precip along its north side. Since the primary forcing
is in the mid levels, the low levels will remain on the dry
side and the precip amounts will be low, less than 0.20" but
more likely less than 0.10" in southern WI. The exact location
of this swath will depend on where that mid level low tracks,
and there is inherent uncertainty with that type of feature.

The ensembles favor a 60% or higher chance of 0.01" of precip
across most of southern WI. Given the lighter precip the
farther north toward central WI in the deeper dry low level
air, the range of precipitation chances in our forecast (30%
north to 56% near the WI/IL border) makes sense at this time.

As for precip type, we have a wintry mix in the forecast right
now, with rain/snow north of Madison and all rain for Milwaukee
and south toward the IL border. Looking at forecast profiles,
there is a fairly deep layer of moisture that is all below
freezing, with a shallow warm/dry layer near the surface. Since
overall forcing is on the weaker side, this profile would
support light snow or drizzle. The forecast low temps are around
30, but ample clouds may keep temps slightly warmer. Anywhere
temps remain above freezing and the precip is light, then light
rain/drizzle would be the more likely precip type. The forecast
will change over the next few days, so keep up with it.

The next rain chance could move in as early as Wed night or Thu
as a more amplified upper trough approaches from the center of
the country.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 910 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

High clouds will continue to push in over the next few hours,
with increasing southwest winds resulting in higher temps and
dewpoints. This should bring an end to the patchy fog currently
being observed in the northeast forecast area by late evening
or early tonight.

A cold front will then drop through southern Wisconsin later
Saturday morning into the afternoon, with breezy southwest
winds ahead of the front becoming gusty out of the northwest
behind the front. Low level wind shear will remain a concern
through around sunrise Sat morning.

Deeper moisture and better forcing will remain farther north
closer to the low, so no precip is expected with the frontal
passage. Additionally, clouds may only dip to around 10 kft,
given a lot of dry air in the lower levels.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 230 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Southerly winds will increase tonight as low pressure around
29.4 inches crosses northern Minnesota. The low will strengthen
to 29.2 inches as it reaches Lake Huron Saturday afternoon.
Gusty northwest winds will develop on the back side of this low
and along the associated cold front. Winds gusts will approach
gale force Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, especially
for the northeastern portion of Lake Michigan. The area east of
the south mid lake buoy may also see a few gale force gusts.
There is still lower confidence for gusts exceeding 34 knots
for extended period so we will to continue to hold off on gale
headlines at this time. Winds will diminish early next week as
high pressure of 30.1 inches builds into the Upper Midwest.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...noon
     Saturday to 4 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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