NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 242124
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
324 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A lake effect snow band is forecast come onshore early Sunday
  morning into Sunday afternoon. This band may only wobble
  onshore a few miles, with scattered snow showers inland.
  Still, expecting moderate to heavy rates within the band,
  leading to snowfall of 2 to 4 inches in eastern Racine and
  Kenosha Counties. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for
  these areas 6 AM CST to 3 PM CST Sunday.

- Wind chills between negative 15 and negative 20 degrees are
  expected tonight into early Sunday morning.

- A Cold Weather Advisory for wind chills of negative 20 to
  negative 25 degrees will likely be needed Sunday night into
  Monday morning.

- Wind chills in the negative teens are expected each night
  Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 324 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Tonight through Sunday night:

Very light snow is possible along the Wisconsin and Illinois
border this evening into tonight as low pressure develops in the
Lower Mississippi Valley, with trace accumulations possible in
some spots. Expecting lows in the single digits below zero, with
wind chills in the negative teens to locally negative 20
degrees.

As low pressure begins to organize late tonight into
Sunday morning and high pressure lingers over the western Great
Lakes region, expecting convergence over Lake Michigan to
strengthen, allowing for a lake effect band (already developed
over the central portions of the lake) to become well organized.
Water temperatures in Lake Michigan remain in the 1 to 2 degrees
C range, with 850 mb temperatures in the -15 to -19 degree
range. This leads to a temperature difference of 16 to 21
degrees, which is well within the preferred range for moderate
to heavy rates. In addition, the saturated/unstable column is
solidly within the dendritic growth zone, increasing potential
for high ratio snowfall. With these ingredients in play, rates
of 0.5 to 1"/hr are possible within the core of the band.

With all that said, the question becomes whether the core of
this band can make its way onshore early Sunday morning. As low
pressure ejects into the Southeast U.S. and turns winds over
Lake Michigan to northeasterly, high pressure lingers over the
western Great Lakes. This will have the dual purpose of keeping
the band organized, but also potentially preventing the band
from moving inland more than a few miles. 12Z mesoscale runs
make a solid case for the convergence zone meandering westward
into eastern Racine and Kenosha County, with a few models
indicating areas as far north as Milwaukee and as far west as
I-94 could see impacts from the band. For now, with confidence
increasing, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Racine and
Kenosha Counties for 2 to 4 inches of snow. Localized areas near
Lake Michigan may see up to 6 inches where the band lingers
longest.

Low pressure finally departs into the mid-Atlantic Sunday
afternoon, and winds will shift back to northwesterly
accordingly. This will allow the band to progress back eastward
into open waters, with Arctic high pressure moving back in
behind the band as it exits.

Outside of the lake effect banding, expect generally cloudy to
partly cloudy skies and highs in the single digits above zero.
Within the band, expect highs in the positive teens.

Sunday night, with northwesterly winds continuing and an Arctic
airmass returning, expect temperatures to drop to around
negative 10 degrees inland from Lake Michigan and into the
negative single digits near Lake Michigan. Wind chills in the
negative 20 to negative 25 range are expected, and a Cold
Weather Advisory will likely be needed. Wind chills will
gradually improve through Monday morning.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 324 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Monday through Saturday:

Winds will shift southwesterly ahead of a clipper system
traversing northern Wisconsin Monday, bringing highs around
positive ten degrees. A few snow showers are possible across
central Wisconsin (15 to 20 percent chance). A cold front from
this system will progress through southern Wisconsin Monday
night, bringing gusty northwest winds and windchills in the
negative teens (lows in the single digits). Northwesterly flow
continues through at least midweek, with windchill values in the
negative teens each night through Wednesday. Wednesday night
into Thursday, the next clipper system approaches, with this one
projected to impact central Illinois. A few snow showers are
possible across southern Wisconsin (15 to 20 percent chances)
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Arctic high
pressure building in Thursday through Friday will bring light
winds and therefore improving wind chills through the end of the
week. High pressure slides eastward with a return to more
seasonable highs in the teens to low 20s Friday and Saturday.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 324 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions and light and variable winds continue into this
evening, with light north winds developing late tonight into
Sunday morning and shifting northwest Sunday afternoon.

A band of lake effect snow is expected to wobble onshore between
early Sunday morning and mid Sunday afternoon towards the
shoreline of far southeastern WI (mainly affecting KRAC and KENW,
with a glancing blow to KMKE possible). Exactly how long (within
this time window) it remains onshore is uncertain, but while it is
present, MVFR ceilings as low as 1000 ft, moderate to briefly
heavy snowfall, and IFR/LIFR visibilities are possible. If central
portions of the snow band make it to shore, 0.5 to 1 inch per
hour snow rates should develop. By 4 PM CST Sunday afternoon,
surface winds will shift far enough northwest to eject the lake
effect snow band, leaving dry weather thru Sunday night and
onwards.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 324 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Open Waters / Synopsis:

High pressure of 30.7 inches will remain over the western Great
Lakes through today, with a convergent zone bringing lake effect
snow potential to the southern half of Lake Michigan from this
afternoon into Sunday. High pressure slides eastward tonight as
low pressure of 29.6 inches develops in the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Expect the convergent zone to strengthen tonight, with
lake effect snow continuing. Northeasterly winds are expected east
of the band, with northerly winds west of the band. The band will
transition westward toward Wisconsin Sunday morning, then back
eastward Sunday afternoon and evening. All winds shift to
northwesterly Sunday evening as low pressure moves into the mid-
Atlantic. High pressure centered over the southern Plains then
dominates the pattern through midweek, leading to generally
westerly winds. A few clipper systems are possible early to
midweek, bringing periods of 25 to 30 kt gusts. Gusty winds
combined with frigid temperatures will lead to moderate / heavy
freezing spray Sunday night through Tuesday. A Heavy Freezing
Spray Warning is in effect.

Nearshore Zones:

As the aforementioned convergent zone over southern portions of
the lake on Sunday brings breezy northwest / northeast winds to
the western edge of Lake Michigan, waves build to Small Craft
thresholds. As such, a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for
zones south of North Point Lighthouse 9 AM CST Sunday morning.
Winds turn northwest later Sunday and allow waves to dissipate,
but with gusts up to 25 knots, the Advisory will remain in effect
through Noon CST Monday. These winds will remain near or just
below thresholds further north.

After a brief lull in the winds Monday afternoon, gusty southwest
to northwest winds are expected for all nearshore zones Monday
evening through Tuesday afternoon. An additional Small Craft
Advisory is looking likely.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ071-WIZ072...6 AM Sunday to 3 PM
     Sunday.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...6 PM Sunday to 6 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM Sunday to noon
     Monday.

&&

$$

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