NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 061611 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1111 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog are possible tonight, mainly from Madison to
  Janesville and west.

- Warmer temperatures & humidity return late week into at least
  early next week along with shower/storm chances


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1111 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The dense fog diminished by 9 AM as anticipated this morning. There
are a few light showers streaming into far southeast WI due to
subtle 850mb warm air advection so I made some adjustments to
pops for this. Stratocumulus clouds are developing late this
morning. Cloud bases are lowest in southeast and east central
WI. A weak lake breeze has already developed. High temperatures
will range from the lower 80s toward central WI where skies are
mostly clear to the upper 70s in southeast WI where there will
be more clouds all day.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1236 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Tonight through Friday:

Surface high pressure will build in overnight, with a mix of mid
and lower level clouds lingering. It still looks like fog will
be possible later tonight into early Thursday where there is
clearing, given lingering low level moisture and light winds.

Not out of the question for a shower or two Thursday afternoon
along the lake breeze, but most places will likely be dry
tomorrow. Some lower ceilings may linger in the southeast
through at least the morning hours, with gradually clearing
likely from the northwest through the day. There should be
enough sunshine for high temps around normal.

Light winds will persist through Thursday night, with more fog
possible given enough clearing. Dry weather will continue as the
high gradually shifts eastward.

Showers and storms will be possible later Friday into Friday
night as low pressure passing by to the north drags a cold front
through the region. The precip may arrive late enough to only
have limited instability to work with, with models suggesting
storms may be weakening as they arrive in the west around mid-
evening.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1236 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Saturday through Wednesday

Additional rounds of storms will be possible Saturday into at
least early next week as moisture lingers and a couple more
shortwaves move through. Models are currently focusing on the
higher potential Saturday night and again Monday night. Could
see storm chances linger into mid-week if the deeper moisture
hangs on farther north per the latest ECMWF. Temps are expected
to remain with a few degrees of normal through the extended
forecast period.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1111 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

There are a few light showers streaming into far southeast WI
this morning so I added a tempo at KENW to account for this.
Stratocumulus clouds are developing late this morning, with
lowest cloud bases (MVFR around 1500ft) are in southeast and
east central WI. These should increase to around 2500ft around
the noon hour and then improve to VFR this afternoon. A weak
lake breeze has already developed. High temperatures will range
from the lower 80s toward central WI where skies are mostly
clear to the upper 70s in southeast WI where there will be more
clouds all day.

Fog is looking likely for areas from Madison to Janesville and
west tonight, and MVFR ceilings should develop in eastern WI.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1236 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Light winds are expected tonight into Friday morning, as high
pressure of 30.0 inches gradually moves through the region.
Areas of fog will be possible tonight into Thursday morning.
Southerly winds will increase by Friday afternoon as the high
departs to the east and low pressure of 29.8 inches reaches Lake
Superior from the west. Scattered showers and storms are
possible Friday night as the low drags a cold front across the
lake. West to northwest winds behind the front later Friday
night into early Saturday will quickly return to southerly by
Saturday evening ahead of the next approaching low pressure
system.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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