NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 161443
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
843 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temps today through the week.

- Potential continues for rain to rain/snow mix (40-80 percent
  chances) Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 843 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

A cool and breezy, but sunny day is ahead for the region. Highs
should top out in the mid to upper 40s.

Boxell

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 315 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Today through Monday:

Southern WI continues to be sandwiched between a deepening low
pressure well off to the east and a building high pressure over
the northern Plains. As a result expect a tighter pressure
gradient to persist through the day today and continue to see
gusty northwesterly winds up to 25-30 mph into the afternoon.
Otherwise, with the arrival of this Canadian airmass, expecting
near normal temps today with highs in the mid to upper 40s under
mostly sunny skies. Would not be surprised to see a few spots
over perform with temps approaching 50F at times. Clear
conditions continue tonight as the high pressure gradually works
its way across the Midwest overnight into Monday. Subsidence
from the high paired with clear conditions and weakening winds,
will see temps dip down into the mid to upper 20s overnight.
Low-lying areas may see low a few degrees colder toward 20F.
Otherwise with see the high pressure move overhead of southern
WI on Monday bringing lighter winds shifting through the day
with similar temps to today, if not a few degrees warmer.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 315 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Monday night through Saturday:

Guidance has come into further agreement with the Monday night
through Tuesday system. A shortwave trough will move from the
Rockies into Northern Illinois then continue toward Ohio by
Tuesday night. The sfc low will follow a similar path from the
Rockies into the Ohio River Valley.

Mid level forcing continues to be a driving force for a lot of
the rain and snow. Between WAA, the nose of the low level just
trying to sneak northward, and some 850 to 700 mb frontogenesis
there should be ample lift. Moisture in the mid and upper levels
remains good and looking at more forecast soundings today some
sfc WAA will increase the available moisture. Overall good lift
and deep moisture. QPF has increased a lot from 24 hrs ago with
all of southern Wisconsin expected to get some precip and
amounts increasing a tenth of an inch to two tenths of an inch.
When all is said and done around 0.2 to 0.3 inches of rain will
be possible. The presence of the LLJ may increase that a bit,
but not expecting drastic jumps in precip as the sfc low will be
weakening as it passes to our south.

Now for the precip type, guidance still favors a rain/snow mix
that is dependent on where the warm and cold layers of the
atmosphere are and how big each section is. Looking at the
thermal profiles there appears to be more positive energy (warm
air) near the sfc which will melt any ice crystal that fall into
it. The sfc warm air layer is fairly large which supports rain.
Now as you head further north and the event moves into Tuesday
morning the temperatures profile slowly cools and becomes
isothermal at 0 degrees C. This would foster a change over to
snow, but anything that happens to the profile could cause a
rain/snow mix or p-type flip flopping between the two. The best
potential for any snow looks to be toward central Wisconsin. Not
expecting much in the way of snow maybe a couple tenths of a
inch on grassy or elevated surfaces.

High pressure will be on the heels of this exiting system
bringing some dry conditions Wednesday. This quick moving ridge
will quickly be replaced by a more organized low pressure system
that will move northeast from the souther Plain and into the
western Great Lakes Region Thursday and Friday. The phasing
system in the upper levels continue to throw the sfc low around.
Deterministic guidance has a range in times, placements and
strengths. Thankfully the trend of passing to the southeast of
the state persists. Mostly rain is expected from this system as
temp profile remain warm. High pressure looks to move in
Saturday which will bring a return to some dry weather.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 843 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Gusty northwest winds are expected through the afternoon hours
today. Otherwise, clear skies are anticipated. Winds will settle
this evening, eventually turning southeasterly on Monday.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 315 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Gusty northwesterly winds continue today as Lake Michigan
remains sandwiched between low pressure well to the east over
New England area and an incoming high pressure from the northern
Plains. Wind gusts around 30 kt expected through the afternoon
with a periodic, brief gusts to gale force for eastern waters
along MI shoreline. Then as the high pressure slides eastward
across the Upper Midwest overnight into Monday, winds will ease
and gradually shift before the high moves over Lake Michigan
Monday night. Then low pressure pushes in from the Plains across
IL for Tuesday and will bring east- southeasterly winds with
the strongest winds over the southern half of the Lake. Will
then see lighter winds into midweek as another high pressure
treks across the Upper Great Lakes region.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee