NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 200908
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog expected to continue through the early morning hours,
  lifting after sunrise. A few pockets of dense fog (1/4 mile or
  less) are possible in southwestern Wisconsin.

- Areas of drizzle (10-20% chances) are expected through much of
  the day, lowering visibilities at times.

- Temperatures hovering near or just above normal this weekend
  into early next week.

- More active pattern with a cooling trend Wednesday and
  Thursday (Thanksgiving) next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Today through tonight:

Main concern through the early morning hours is fog development
across southwestern to far south-central Wisconsin. Patchy dense
fog has developed across Lafayette, Green, and Rock Counties,
with a Special Weather Statement in effect for 1/2 to 1/4 mile
visibilities through 8 AM CST this morning. Pockets of drizzle
continuing over southeastern Wisconsin are keeping visibilites
higher in the 1-3 mile range, with visibilities along lake
Michigan remaining at 4-5 miles. Fog will lift after sunrise
this morning, with areas of drizzle expected to continue
throughout the day (visibilities lowered within these drizzle
patches), tapering off from north to south into the overnight
hours.

High temperatures today will remain in the 40s, with surface
WAA battling low clouds and drizzle. Some models have
temperatures reaching the 50s, while others keep temperatures as
low as 40 degrees through the afternoon. Thinking that WAA will
at least serve to bring in highs in the mid-40s, but the wide
spread of temperature values may require updates through the day
today.

Tonight, as drizzle tapers off and low clouds exit behind a cold
front, expect temperatures to fall into the upper 30s near Lake
Michigan, mid-30s inland, and low 30s in southwestern Wisconsin.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Friday through Thursday:

Overall looking mostly dry with near normal temps Friday through
the weekend. The drier trend continues for Friday as the shortwave
trough flattens and keeps the more favorable synoptic lift and
surface low along with moisture south of WI. Will be slightly
cooler with north winds Friday while high pressure gradually
builds across the Upper Midwest overnight through Saturday.
Another weak, dry cold front is progged to quickly move through
the area overnight Saturday, but will mostly be a wind shift
followed by another passing surface high through the day Sunday.

Will begin to see an upper-level ridge begin to build in for the
start of next week and warm things up a bit through Monday.
However, 500mb cluster model analysis continue to hint a longwave
trough to dig across the central CONUS Tuesday through midweek,
which may bring a bout of precip to the Upper Midwest region.
Latest long range model guidance favor a mild pattern for the
start of the week, thus looking mostly like any precip would be
rain at this time. And looking further ahead toward the
Thanksgiving holiday, there is a persisting signal for things cool
down, with potential for below normal temps for the second half
of the week. Still several days out and there will be plenty of
changes with next week's system as uncertainty remains high given
hints of phasing mid-level troughs.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A mix of drizzle and fog has reduced visibilities across the
majority of southern Wisconsin, with near lakeshore visibilities
falling to around 4 SM, inland terminals between 2 and 3 SM, and
far southwestern Wisconsin (Iowa, Lafayette, and Green
Counties) seeing visibilities between 1/2 and 1/4 mile. Fog will
gradually lift after sunrise this morning as southwesterly
breezes begin (around 8 kt), but areas of drizzle are expected
to continue to lower visibilities through the morning hours.
Ceilings will gradually recover into MVFR into the late
afternoon and evening hours as drizzle will tapers off from
north to south. A cold front will shift winds to northwesterly
overnight, and will bring a return to VFR conditions into Friday
morning.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

High pressure will remain over the eastern Great Lakes through
today, while low pressure progresses eastward through northern
Ontario and deepens in the Hudson Bay overnight tonight. Expect
light southwesterly winds to develop this morning, becoming
breezy this afternoon and evening. Winds shift to become
northwesterly and diminish overnight as a cold front from this
low progresses eastward across the Lake. Light northwest winds
continue through Friday, becoming light and variable Saturday as
weak high pressure passes over the lake. Winds will become
southwesterly again Saturday night into Sunday, and westerly by
Sunday night as an additional low pressure system deepens across
the Hudson Bay and brings another weak cold front through the
Lake.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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