NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 021854
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
154 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More active pattern early next week with increased showers and
  storm chances Sunday through midweek. A short warm up is
  expected Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s,
  respectively.

- More chances for frost return during the mid to late week
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 132 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Tonight through Sunday night:

Dry weather will continue into tonight with west-northwest winds
becoming southwesterly overnight as warm advection kicks in at
the surface. Southwesterly winds will then become gusty Sunday
morning as a stronger pressure gradient moves over the area
ahead of an approaching cold front. Light rain showers are
expected on a scattered basis along this front, with the best
chances of seeing rain west of Madison. As these showers move
east over southern Wisconsin, they will encounter a lot of dry
air at the surface and may end of splitting most the east
central portions of our area.

After the rain, skies will clear and gusty winds will taper off
through the afternoon as the front arrives from the west and
passes overhead. More warm advection is then expected Sunday
night into Monday as southwesterly winds return again ahead of
another cold front.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 138 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Monday through Saturday:

Surface warm advection on breezy southwest winds will allow
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 70s Monday. A cold
front is expected to move through, with models converging on an
early evening arrival of the front over central Wisconsin.
Showers and a few storms are expected along the front Monday
evening, but poor moisture return from the gulf will limit
available CAPE. As such, skinny CAPE profiles will result, with
limited potential for strong storms. Some gusty winds can't be
ruled out with the strongest storms owing to dry levels from
the surface to around 700mb, but these gusty winds should remain
sub-severe.

Otherwise following the front, a cooler patter returns Tuesday
through Thursday as a large trough dips into the Great Lakes
region. Daily highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. Showers
can't be ruled out at times given the steep lapse rates driven
by the reservoir of cold air aloft and persistent northwest flow,
though Thursday does look like the best day for shower activity
at this time as the base of the upper level trough rotates
through the area. Frost potential will also return Tuesday night
through Thursday night.

Temperatures then begin to warm Friday into Saturday as ridging
builds over the plains.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 115 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

SCT to OVC cu will continue this afternoon over southern
Wisconsin, with low clouds giving way to high VFR clouds ahead
of a cold front overnight. Breezy west to northwest winds will
subside this evening briefly, then become southwesterly and
breezy as the front draws near Sunday morning. As the front
approaches, scattered light rain may occur, with generally less
rain over south central WI and east to the lakeshore. Southwest
winds will remain breezy through Sunday, easing off and becoming
westerly Sunday night. ceilings below VFR are not expected with
the rain. A brief window of southwesterly wind shear may occur
before gusts pick up around dawn on Sunday morning.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 119 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Southerly winds grow breezy tonight into Sunday as low pressure
of 29.7 inches approaches the lake, dragging a cold front over
southeast over the lakes through late Sunday afternoon. Winds
will become westerly for a brief period behind the front Sunday
night, before returning to southwesterly and becoming breezy
again on Monday ahead of another stronger low of 29.2 inches
and another cold front.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM
     Sunday to 7 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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