NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 231122 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated waterspout or two are possible over Lake Michigan
  through midday.

- Dry and pleasant conditions early this week.

- Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday along with
  warmer and more humid conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

One more shortwave will slide down Lake Michigan this
afternoon. This will bring some clouds and a few showers to the
open lake areas, but they should just miss southeast WI. Winds
in southern WI will remain steady out of the northwest for most
of the day, and then become northerly near Lake Michigan and
lighter for inland areas. The surface high pressure will drift
across Wisconsin this evening through Monday. Highs will be
a little below normal, in the mid 70s.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Tonight through Monday:

Mostly clear skies, light winds, and decreasing dewpoints are
expected tonight as high pressure builds in, with lows a few
degrees below normal in the low 50s most places. Quiet weather
will then continue Sunday and Monday as the high gradually
builds overhead. A drier and cooler airmass is expected through
this period with temperatures a couple to a few degrees below
normal along with lower humidity. Mostly clear skies will
persist Sunday and Monday, aside from some late morning and
afternoon cumulus each day.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

Surface low pressure is expected to pass by to the north Tuesday
night into Wednesday, along with an associated cold front and
shortwave. This system will likely bring shower and storm
chances back to southern Wisconsin Tue evening into Wednesday.
There is disagreement among models with the exact timing of the
stronger forcing, which would impact the strength of any storms
given typical diurnal instability trends. Models are showing a
moderate amount of shear with this system, so a few stronger
storms aren't out of the question if the timing is right to tap
some higher instability during the daytime hours. Warmer temps
and higher dewpoints are expected to return during this time
period as well under breezy southerly winds ahead of the
approaching low.

Mainly dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday under
surface high pressure. Could see a few diurnal showers though as
a few weak impulses move through the the persistent cyclonic
flow aloft. A stronger shortwave is then anticipated arrive Sat
per latest models, bringing shower/storm chances back to
southern Wisconsin. Near normal temperatures are likely for the
second half of the week.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Expect diurnal cumulus clouds today with bases around 5000 ft
AGL and highest concentrations in east central and southeast
WI. The wind will be steady out of the northwest once again, but
lighter for inland areas than yesterday.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Isolated showers and storms will remain possible over the lake
through mid morning, with a small chance for a waterspout mainly
over the north half. Otherwise, breezy north to northwest winds
will persist today due to being sandwiched between deepening
low pressure around 29.7 inches over the eastern Great Lakes and
high pressure of 30.2 inches building in from the northwest.
Winds will eventually become lighter by midday Monday,
persisting into Tuesday as the high moves overhead. Breezy
southerly winds will develop later Tuesday into Wednesday as the
high exits and low pressure of 29.6 inches approaches from
Manitoba.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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