NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 122331
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
531 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder with 5-15F above normal temps trend continues Friday
  into early next week for much of southern WI.

- Mainly dry conditions through the weekend with 30-60% chances
  for precip (mainly rain but cannot rule out some wintry mix)
  returning late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 531 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A north to south band of mid level clouds over ern WI may take
several hours to dissipate. This appears to be a region of weak
850 mb frontogenesis that is expected to weaken further.

Otherwise, high pressure will continue to move ewd to the Mid
Atlantic States and NC by late Fri, while low pressure tracks
from Ontario into Quebec. This will result in lgt sly winds
gradually veering to wly for srn WI. Aloft, a shortwave trough
will track from nrn Ontario into srn Ontario on Fri, but much
of the cloud cover and precipitation will remain well to the
north and east. Overall, low to mid level warm advection and
sunshine will likely boost sfc temps well into the 40s and
lower 50s for Fri afternoon.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1249 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

Lingering influence from the departing high pressure will
continue this afternoon and evening. Expect light and variable
winds along with overnight lows dipping into the mid 20s to
lower 30s as clouds are expected to clear out through the
evening. Southerly flow will gradually increase on the backside
of the high into Friday and will see temps begin to warm up for
Friday. Still looking at above normal temps with highs rising
into the mid to upper 40s and continue to see a potential (12z
HREF and NBM with 20-50% chance), especially for southwesterly
WI to crack 50F Friday afternoon. However, GEFS and EPS ensemble
are not as enthusiastic about seeing high temps reaching the
50F, but still cannot rule it out. Clear and calm conditions are
expected again overnight Friday with temps similar if not a
degree or two milder than the previous night.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1249 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

The above normal temps are expected to continue through the
weekend as the Upper Midwest sits along the ridges axis of the
upper-level flow. Sunday may be slightly cooler as models prog
the trough trekking across the lower Mississippi River Valley
to dampen the upper-levl ridge slightly, but overall a mild
trend is in store for our neck of the woods. This WAA pattern
across southern WI will bring widespread 40s and medium-high
potential (40-90%) to see daily high temps of 50F or higher each
day Saturday into Monday for much of our CWA, especially the
southwestern and southerly portions. Milder, above normal temps
will also translate to overnight lows through the weekend with
near to above freezing temps most nights.

Continue to see the pattern break down into early next week as
the ridge shifts eastward and a broad upper-level trough working
its way across the Central CONUS. Overall, the amplitude of
this trough is slightly less amplified than previous runs, but
still expected to bring a change in pattern to the region. While
the run-to-run variance in the models continues, the latest
trend is tracking the associated surface feature further south
that prior day runs and if this trend persists may keep
southern WI on the cooler side of this system. Thus there will
be increased PoP chances, but milder temps make keep the precip
mostly in the form of rain may result more in more wintry precip
than with a milder pattern. Additional there are hints of
another system to bring increased PoP chance toward the later
half of the week as well. Again still plenty of time for the
next week systems to shift and change, but continue to monitor
for how it evolves through the weekend.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 531 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions tnt-Fri evening. Sct-bkn070-090 altocumulus over
ern WI and portions of south central WI tnt then mostly sunny
skies for Fri.


Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1249 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

High pressure will continue to influence winds over Lake
Michigan for the rest of today into Friday. Lighter and more
variable winds will then gradually turn more southwesterly and
pick up into Friday as the center of the high shift further
east. Will see prevailing south-southwesterly across the Lake
through the weekend and into the start of next week. Then
looking at winds to pick up through the middle of next week as a
system tracks from the Plains and into the Great Lakes region.
Likely to see small craft conditions develop over the southern
WI nearshore waters while potentially seeing a few gale force
gusts at times over the open waters into the end of next week.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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