NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 110507
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1207 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory in effect for early Monday morning for all of
  S WI with the exception of Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha
  Counties.

- A clipper system brings higher end shower chances (60 to 90
  percent) for Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will be possible,
  with a conditional threat for a stronger storm or two Tuesday
  afternoon

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1158 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Today through Tuesday night:

Overnight temperatures have trended slightly warmer, but a frost
advisory will still remain for all of southern WI save for MKE,
Racine, and Kenosha Counties.

High pressure will move overhead today, cotinuing to promote dry
conditions. The weak pressure gradient will promote a lake
breeze during the late morning and into the afternoon, which
will push east to southeast winds from the lake inland with
time. As a result, highs in the 50s are expected for counties
close to Lake Michigan, while highs in the low 60s are expected
far inland.

The high pressure will then quickly shuffle east Monday night as
a low pressure moves from the northern plains to the Arrowhead
region of MN by dawn on Tuesday. The low will drag a warm front
over Wisconsin and widespread showers are expected Tuesday
morning. MUCAPE will be non-existent, so no thunder is expected
with the morning round. Showery precip may continue into the
afternoon as the warm sector of the low pressure system moves
overhead, with the low pressure center moving into northern WI
during the late morning into the afternoon. Models then suggest
there may be some redevelopment along the cold front over
southeast Wisconsin late Tuesday afternoon. Airmass recovery
doesn't look overly conducive to building large CAPE and only
skinny CAPE supporting between 500 and 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE will
result along the front. Effective shear of 30 knots will be
enough for storm organization though, and any stronger storms
that sustain themselves may feature small hail and gusty winds.
The SPC has us in a marginal risk on Tuesday, with the severe
weather threat looking isolated at best.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1206 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

Temperatures dip on Wednesday in the post-frontal CAA regime
with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. High pressure moves in
and lingers on Thursday with temperatures rebounding to near 70.

A more active pattern then sets up Friday into early next week.
Multiple waves of warm advection look possible, with on and off
shower and storm chances. The NBM maintains 25 to 45% PoPs
Friday through Monday given the nebulous rain chances.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1138 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions will remain tonight through tomorrow. Expect dry
conditions save for a few scattered sprinkles this evening.

Light northwest winds will become northeasterly tonight, and
then light and variable tomorrow morning as the center of a high
pressure system moves nearby. With the weak pressure gradient
present tomorrow, a lake breeze will likely start pushing inland
starting at 15z and continuing into Monday evening.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1138 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

High pressure is expected to move from southern Manitoba to
over Lake Michigan by late tomorrow morning. Relatively light
and variable winds are expected through tomorrow night. Low
pressure should then move gradually east southeast across or
north of Lake Superior Tuesday into Tuesday night. The low will
bring a cold front southeast through the region. Gusty south to
southeast winds are expected ahead of the front Tuesday, with a
few gales possible during a brief period Tuesday afternoon. Wind
then veer west to northwest behind it and remaining gusty for
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

High pressure should then move southeast into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing lighter winds.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Frost Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-
     WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 until 8 AM Monday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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