NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion
FXUS63 KMKX 111801
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
101 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light to occasionally moderate snow continues through the rest
of this afternoon. Total accumulation around a half an inch
expected, with a few locally higher totals near one inch
possible.
- Widespread rain expected Thursday night. Some rain-snow mix is possible
across the far north, with any accumulation remaining light
(half inch or less).
- Very gusty non-thunderstorm winds expected during the day
Friday.
- Confidence is increasing for significant accumulating snow and
blowing snow Saturday night through Sunday night. Where
exactly the heaviest snow will fall remains uncertain. Pay
close attention to the forecast if planning to travel during
this time frame.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Tonight through Friday night:
Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: An upper trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley this afternoon, with increasing DPVA &
frontogenesis rooted near the 700 mb level encouraging a band of
light to occasionally moderate snow across southern Wisconsin.
Visibility observations indicate that snowfall rates up to 0.5"/hr
are occurring along the leading edge of the snowfall band, which is
roughly located with the narrow area of frontogenesis aloft. Expect
these rates to contract into east-central and southeastern Wisconsin
near-term as the associated area of 700 mb frontogenesis shifts
east, with lighter snowfall prevailing into the late afternoon
hours. Conditions will clear out this evening as high pressure
builds in from the Northern Plains. Currently positioned over
Alberta, a clipper system and compact surface low will migrate along
the US-Canada border Thursday, progressing into Michigan's Upper
Peninsula Thursday night into Friday morning. Lift ahead of the
approaching/passing system will encourage a quick round of
widespread precipitation development Thursday night into early
Friday morning, with conditions being warm enough for all rain
across the majority of the area. Non-thunderstorm winds will become
very gusty as the surface low passes to the north of the area
Thursday night into Friday. Headlines will likely become necessary
in coming forecasts.
Rest of Today: Mainly light snow will continue through mid-late
afternoon as the upper wave discussed above moves east across the
region. With the more focused band of 700 mb frontogenesis/locally
higher snowfall rates in the process of shifting over Lake Michigan,
expect that most rates from here forward will largely be below 0.25"
per hour. Could thus see a few more tenths of accumulation through
the remainder of the day, putting the event-total snow forecast of
0.5"/locally higher to 1" on track in the afternoon update. Given
the much lighter rates through the remainder of the day & conclusion
of icing impacts, have thus cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory
previously in effect for Marquette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, and
Sheboygan Counties. Budget a few extra minutes of time if
encountering light snow on the roads through the remainder of today.
Thursday Night: Increasing ascent along/ahead of a passing clipper
system will support widespread precipitation across the region.
Increasing low level warm advection in advance of the clipper will
allow thermal profiles to become mild enough for all rain across the
majority/all of the region through most of the overnight period.
Will need to monitor forecast sounding trends over far northern
areas, as profiles could stay just cool enough for some wet rain-
snow mix through the overnight period. Could also briefly see some
wet snowflakes mix in with rain areawide near sunrise as cold air
begins to work in on the back side of the system. Currently looking
at light (< 0.5") if any accumulation with any snow that mixes in,
but will continue to watch trends over coming updates.
Friday: Non thunderstorm-winds will become very gusty on the back
side of passing low pressure. Currently anticipate widespread gusts
between 40-45 MPH, with some potential for locally higher gusts to
50 MPH. Thus anticipate the eventual need for headlines---likely
Wind Advisories---in coming forecast updates/as location trends
clarify. Be sure to secure any loose outdoor furniture ahead of
Friday's gusty winds.
Quigley
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Saturday through Wednesday:
Confidence continues to increase that a significant winter storm
will impact the region this weekend, with a swath of heavy snow
likely along with strong winds. As is common with
deepening/phasing systems like this, big questions remain with the track
of the low and timing of the phasing, which will impact where the
swath of heaviest snow sets up. Additionally, the last couple runs
of models have been on the high side with total liquid
equivalent (in the 1 to 3 inch range), which can happen when a
storm is a few days out. Model storm total QPF often settles back
down within 1 to 3 days of the storm arrival. That said, this is
looking like a very strong low, with plenty of forcing and
moisture along with significant winds. There will likely be
significant impacts with this storm this weekend, it's just a
matter of where at this point.
The latest ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensemble MSLP means still have the
low tracking over or just to the south of Chicago. The
deterministic GFS and Canadian runs are similar, though the
deterministic ECMWF continues to be a bit farther north, tracking
the low over southern Wisconsin. A track over the Chicago area
would result in significant snowfall across at least the northern
half of the forecast area, with these impacts spreading farther
south if the low ends up a bit farther south. A farther north low
track would shift the heavier snow mainly north of the forecast
area. Still a decent spread among individual ensemble member low
tracks, contributing to the lower confidence in the track of this
storm and resultant storm totals. Overall, this storm remains
worth keeping an eye on as the weekend approaches.
Colder and drier conditions are expected to settle into the region
behind the departing low early next week, as high pressure moves in
from the northwest. Below normal temps are likely Monday and
Tuesday, with temps moderating towards normal by mid-week.
DDV
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Majority MVFR and IFR flight categories prevail early this afternoon
as -SN moves across southern Wisconsin. VIS readings as low as 1 SM
have been noted along the leading edge of the incoming -SN, pointing
to snowfall rates in the 0.25-0.5 inch per hour range at the onset
of precipitation. Rates lighten substantially behind the leading
edge of -SN. Have thus carried lowest VIS reductions for short time
periods at all fields, with arrival times being estimated per latest
radar trends. Will continue to make amendments as necessary through
the afternoon hours. Expect VIS and CIG readings to gradually
improve through the late afternoon as snowfall rates lighten. Drier
air will work in from the northwest this evening, allowing for the
return of VFR flight categories after sunset. VFR flight categories
will continue through the remainder of the period thereafter. SCT to
BKN mid-level clouds will approach from the west Thursday evening,
working into the vicinity of MKE nearing the conclusion of the 30
hour forecast period.
Quigley
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Low pressure of 29.5 inches over southwest Ontario will continue
to pull away to the northeast the remainder of the day through
tonight. Northwest winds gusting to gale force at times are
likely this afternoon and evening evening behind the low. A Gale
Warning remains in effect for the open waters for this period,
with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the nearshore waters.
Lighter winds are likely tonight into early Thursday as high
pressure of 30.2 inches briefly moves through. Strong low pressure
of 29.0 inches is then expected to move through northern
Wisconsin into northern Michigan Thursday night into Friday.
Increasing southerly winds are expected later Thursday into
Thursday night ahead of the low. Though the cold lake may dampen
the gust potential Thursday night, southerly gales are still
likely. There is a better chance for west to northwest gales on
Friday behind the low, with a few gusts to storm force not out of
the question. A Gale Watch remains in effect for Thursday evening
through Friday evening.
Winds are expected to ease Friday night into Saturday as high
pressure of 30.3 inches moves in from the northwest. Another
strong low pressure system is likely to move through the region
late in the weekend into early next week, with another round of
gales likely. A colder airmass behind the low may lead to a round
of heavy freezing spray Sunday night into Monday as the strong
winds and higher waves linger.
DDV
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM
Thursday.
Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...7 PM Thursday to 1 AM Saturday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM
Thursday.
&&
$$
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