NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 110915
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow may just clip areas southwest of Madison tonight.
  Any snow accumulations will likely be under one half inch.

- Light snow may occur Friday afternoon and evening, with the
  passage of an Arctic cold front.

- An Arctic airmass is expected this weekend, with wind chills
  as cold as 15 below to 30 below zero for the overnight and
  early morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Today and tonight:

Stubborn low clouds may hang on across much of southern
Wisconsin through early to mid-morning. Models keep trying to
show the clear slot expanding farther into the forecast area,
but satellite trends don't reflect this potential through the
next couple hours. Will continue to monitor the back edge of the
clouds near Eau Claire this morning to see if there is a
significant southward push. These clouds have kept temps from
falling as much as expected across much of the area early this
morning, so will continue to modify short term temps to match
the slower exit of the clouds. High temps may have to be
updated for today if the clouds hang on through early to mid-
morning, as temps are trending towards starting out warmer at
daybreak than the current forecast highs. Otherwise, expect
quiet weather today under high pressure, with light winds
through tonight.

It sill looks like there could be a little light snow southwest
of Madison this evening into early tonight, though some forecast
models keep the snow completely southwest of the state. If the
snow does sneak into southwest Wisconsin, only a dusting to a
half an inch is expected.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

Another shortwave is expected to move through Friday, with
models still suggesting a little light snow possible in the
afternoon and evening. Colder temps will move in behind this
wave, with highs likely not getting out of the single digits
over the weekend. Lows will be below zero at night, with wind
chills of 15 to 30 below. Cold weather headlines will be
possible both Friday night and Saturday night, with the coldest
wind chills expected Saturday night into early Sunday. Another
wave may clip the area on Saturday, with more snow chances
possible, though latest forecast models largely keep the snow
south of the state line.

Winds will become southerly Monday into Tuesday on the back
side of high pressure and as a trough of low pressure approaches
from the west. This should result in warming temps early next
week, with highs back around normal by Tuesday.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Stubborn MVFR stratus may hang on across much of southern
Wisconsin through early to mid-morning. Models keep trying to
show the clear slot expanding farther into the forecast area,
but satellite trends don't reflect this potential through the
next couple hours. Will continue to monitor the back edge of
the clouds near Eau Claire this morning to see if there is a
significant southward push.

Otherwise, expect quiet weather today under high pressure, with
light winds through tonight. It sill looks like there could be a
little light snow southwest of Madison this evening into early
tonight, though some forecast models keep the snow completely
southwest of the state. If the snow does sneak into southwest
Wisconsin, only a dusting to a half an inch is expected. Some
lower clouds may sneak into the southwest forecast area as well,
especially if snow clips the area.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northwest winds will continue to diminish today as high
pressure around 30.1 inches moves in from the northwest. A
period of west to northwest gales may return Friday night
through Saturday night as a strong Arctic cold front moves
through the region. Heavy freezing spray will likely develop
during this period as the colder airmass moves in.

Strong high pressure around 30.8 inches will then move southeast
through the region Sunday and to the south early next week. Gusty
winds may return early next week behind the exiting high.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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