NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 290452
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1152 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pockets of elevated fire weather conditions possible Sunday,
  particularly west of I-41.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms expected Monday night
  into Tuesday. A few severe storms are possible.

- Active weather continues into the second half of next week,
  with multiple chances for snow then rain Thursday into
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

High pressure to the southeast gradually pushing out tonight
with lower pressure from the west nudging in. The warm front
associated with the low will sit across northern WI. The upper
levels likely inactive with weak ridging overhead. Some mild
fire weather concerns given RH near 30% with potential for as
low as 20% and some breezy southwest winds and highs in the low
to mid 60s. Some moisture aloft may bring some high clouds
into the day Sunday. Into Sunday night a piece of the surface
low will push east over the northern Great Lakes and drag what
was the warm front south as a pseudo cold front.

Into Monday there is uncertainty on exactly where the warm
front will end up but where it ends up will greatly impact how
warm it can get Monday, especially if the lake breeze comes into
play, and more importantly exactly where potential storms set
up Monday night. Monday night strong WAA is expected south of
the warm front with moisture at 700mb and above with increasing
instability aloft. Midlevel WAA is very likely to cause any
convection to be elevated. There may be some mild flooding
concerns with this given skinny CAPE, very moist column, deep
cloud layer, along with upwards of 1.5 inch PWATs and a
propagation that would favor some training convection potential.
There is also a risk for hail as well given the instability
(1000-1500J/kg) and 0-6km shear of 45-60kts. The key with any of
this potential is exactly where the warm front ends up as this
will greatly impact exact where storms fire and how impactful
they will be.

Uncertainty increases into Tuesday as the timing of the cold
frontal passage as the low pressure system pushes through will
significantly impact storm potential and how strong storms could
be. Currently most models have the front coming through during
the mid morning to mid afternoon. The later the timing the
better chance for storms as surface heating and instability can
build into the region. This will also be the best chance for any
surface based convection/storms. It remains just as likely that
the front pushes out more quickly and leave only some post
frontal precip. The post frontal precip may persist into the
evening with fairly strong forcing through the column with right
entrance region of the jet, shortwave energy at 500mb, and even
some WAA. We will see models dial in a bit more over the next
24 hours giving us a better idea of how things play out. Cooler
conditions push in behind the front Tuesday night as higher
pressure nudges in from the northwest.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Wednesday through Sunday:

There is a fair amount of uncertainty in this period with the
timing and placement of features, which will influence
temperatures and chances for precipitation.

There should be an initial low pressure system that shifts
northeast through the Middle Mississippi River Valley and into the
eastern Great Lakes region either Wednesday night into Thursday
or Thursday night into Friday. Ensembles are mixed with the timing
of this low pressure system through the region, so will keep 30
to 50 percent chances for precipitation in the forecast for now.

If the timing is more Wednesday night into Thursday, there may be
a period of light snow or mix of light rain and light snow that
occurs on the front end of this system, changing to rain as warm
air advection brings milder temperatures into the region. The
later timing may bring more rain and less light snow/mix
potential, if temperatures warm up enough. Temperature spreads are
fairly large in ensembles, so will leave ensemble mean values for
now.

Ensembles then suggest a second low shifting northeast through a
similar track to the first low, with the timing generally Friday
night into Saturday night. There remains differences in the
placement of the low track and cold frontal passages, so will
continue to leave 40 to 60 percent chances for precipitation going
in the forecast. Temperatures will once again be dependent on the
low track and timing, with ensemble spreads still fairly large
this far out.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

South to southwest winds will remain light to modest with some
winds aloft bringing LLWS concerns 2kft up from the southwest at
about 40 kts. this may last into early Sunday morning.
Otherwise skies will clear out over the next few hours with
mostly high clouds over southern WI in the TAF period. No other
TAF concerns are expected at this time.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Currently centered over Virginia, 30.6 inch high pressure will
advance into Atlantic into Sunday morning as 29.7 inch low
pressure builds into the Great Plains. Widespread 20-25 knot
south gusts are expected tonight over the northern half of the
waters, with a few gusts to 30 knots possible over the far
northern lake. Breezy southwest winds will continue through
Sunday as a front begins to approach the waters from the north.
The front will gradually advance south across Lake Michigan
Sunday night through Tuesday. This will result in generally
east- northeast winds across the northern half of the lake with
southerly winds further south. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the slow- moving front, with a few
stronger storms possible Monday night and once again on Tuesday.
Large hail would be the primary threat in any stronger storms.

Winds will trend northerly behind the departing cold front Tuesday
evening through Wednesday. Will be monitoring trends for a few gusts
approaching gale force Tuesday evening/night, with the current
expectation being for any such gusts to be isolated. 30.7 inch
high pressure will shift from Ontario to Quebec through the late
week time period as 29.8 inch low pressure builds into the Ohio
River Valley, allowing winds to trend east-northeasterly.
Additional rain and snow will accompany the approaching/passing
area of low pressure Thursday into next weekend.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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