NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion
FXUS63 KMKX 150016
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
616 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures remaining 10-20+ degrees above normal
through Wednesday.
- Widespread rain expected (~50-80+% chances) Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Low chances
(10-20%) for precip linger into Wednesday night, with some
snow possibly mixing in (especially further north).
- Additional precipitation chances (~25-45%) Thursday into
Friday. Both rain and snow are possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 615 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Perhaps some patchy fog tonight in far east central WI but
otherwise the forecast remains on track with no concerns.
Kuroski
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 140 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Tonight through Tuesday:
Warm and dry weather continue through this period, with inland
high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s each day, and even
warmer (mid 50s to around 60) for a brief time Monday as
southwesterly WAA kicks in. Lakeshore areas should remain
roughly 5 to 10 degrees cooler than inland areas (but still
plenty warm for this time of year) due to lake breeze
circulations, with a synoptic easterly breeze enhancing that
cooling effect on Tuesday (and spreading it further inland). All
of this warmth is driven by ridging in the jet over the
Midwestern CONUS, and the amplitude of it will peak on Monday,
pause Tuesday, then break down shortly thereafter. To put these
temperatures into perspective, the climatological normal
high temperatures for this time of February (in southern WI)
are generally in the low to mid 30s, and we're forecasting
temperatures 10-25 degrees (or locally higher) above this mark.
With skies expected to be mostly clear for much of the overnight
hours tonight, we cannot completely rule out some patchy fog
developing (similar to what we observed in a few areas this
past morning). Some scattered to broken cloud cover is
currently expected to interfere with radiational cooling /
inhibit fog potential Sunday night and Monday night.
Sheppard
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 140 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Wednesday through Saturday:
50-80% precip chances remain in the forecast Tuesday night
(tapering down into Wednesday) as strong low pressure
originating over the northern plains tracks eastward into our
region. Many models / ensemble members give this system a
double-barreled shape on the surface pressure fields as it
tracks eastward into MN/WI Wednesday, making the event somewhat
difficult to predict, yet we can confidently call for an 'all
rain' event for the Tuesday night / Wednesday phase of the
event. A few rumbles of thunder remain possible as well. A brief
resurgence of the warmth (highs in the mid 50s to around 60) is
expected in the daytime Wednesday due to strong southwesterly
WAA. Going into Wednesday night, precip chances decrease to
10-20% (highest further north) with only weak / wrap-around
precip lingering on the back side of the system. Some light snow
may mix in for this phase of the event, but again, minimal
chances / minimal impact if applicable.
From Thursday onwards, predictability falls off completely. Wide
/ zonal troughing in the jet allows a separate (central Great
Plains) low pressure system to develop Thursday and track
northeastward into our region Thursday night. Models have
phasing disagreements, particularly pertaining to the
interaction of the prior system (lingering / spinning down
overhead) with the new system (developing over the central
plains and tracking inbound). There are many ways that this
could play out, but our best guess is light rain late Thursday,
followed by a NW to SE transition from rain to light
accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday.
Behind the late-week system, high temperatures are likely to
settle back into the 30s (Fri / Sat) as a wide / zonal trough
briefly takes over the upper air pattern.
Sheppard
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 615 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Some patchy dense fog may come on shore in far east central WI
this evening but otherwise VFR conditions are expected across
southern WI with light southerly winds becoming northeast into
Sunday.
Kuroski
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 140 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Synopsis / Open Water Zones:
Light and variable winds continue over the lake today, turning
south to around 10 knots tonight in advance of a weak cold
front. Winds turn northwest behind the front post dawn Sunday
morning then go back to light and variable late Sunday. Low
pressure around 29.6 inches tracks east across Ontario Canada
Monday, leading to a south breeze over the lake. Winds turn
north and decelerate behind the associated cold front Monday
night.
Strong low pressure develops over the northern plains on
Tuesday, leading to accelerating east winds over the lake. Gusty
east to southeasterly winds are expected Tuesday night as the
system tracks eastward into Minnesota / Wisconsin, and may veer
southwestward over southern portions of the lake Wednesday
morning / afternoon as the low builds further east. Gales will
be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Forecast predictability drops dramatically from Wednesday night
through Thursday. The aforementioned low pressure may interact
with a second area of low pressure tracking northeast from the
central Plains during this period, with periods of gusty winds /
elevated waves remaining likely. Gusty northwest winds are then
looking likely Thursday night into Friday as both low pressure
systems depart eastward.
Nearshore Zones:
Calm and quiet conditions continue today through Tuesday
morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to arrive
Tuesday afternoon as increasing east winds lead to building
waves. A combination of gusty winds and elevated waves are then
expected to allow Small Craft Advisory conditions to persist
through late this week.
Sheppard
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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