NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 191911
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
211 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers (40 to 70 percent chance)
  should move east through the area later this afternoon and
  this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms (20 to 30
  percent chance) may occur. A stronger storm or two may produce
  hail and gusty winds northwest of Madison.

- There are chances for showers (20 to 60 percent chance) Sunday
  into Sunday evening, highest south. Thunderstorms look
  unlikely to occur. Northeast winds with dry low level flow may
  limit shower chances in the area, so expect more refinements
  to the precipitation forecast.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms at times toward the
  middle to later portions of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Late This Afternoon through Saturday night:

A 500 mb shortwave trough will shift southeast toward the area
into early evening, then shift through the area this evening
into later tonight. A weak surface low should shift southeast
through northern Wisconsin and to the east during this period,
with warm air advection ahead of it in the low levels across
southern Wisconsin. There is a low level jet nose pointing east
into the area as well late this afternoon into this evening.

These features should help bring scattered to numerous showers
(40 to 70 percent chance) eastward through the area during this
time. There should be up to 500 J/kg of mean layer CAPE in
western and northwestern parts of the area to allow for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms (20 to 30 percent chance) to occur
as well. This is mainly skinny mean layer CAPE with deep layer
bulk shear of 40 to 50 knots.

Thus, may see hail and gusty winds with a stronger storm or two
mainly northwest of Madison into early evening. Otherwise would
see some cloud-to-ground lightning risk with any storms. Storms
may have a tougher time pushing further east during the
evening, as instability weakens, but kept 20 to 30 percent
chances for thunder in these areas for now. This activity should
exit overnight.

Gusty west northwest winds should gradually weaken into this
evening, becoming more southwest overnight into Saturday
morning as the low moves east of the region. Should see some
clearing out of the clouds later tonight as well. Lows in the
lower to middle 50s are expected.

High pressure should build into the area Saturday, bringing
mainly dry conditions. Some CAMs are suggesting a few showers
may occur in northeast Wisconsin, but think the airmass will be
too dry in the area for any showers. Gusty northwest winds are
anticipated Saturday, with highs in the middle 70s. The high
should continue to bring dry conditions for Saturday night, with
lows in the lower to middle 50s.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Low pressure is expected to shift eastward from the Central
Plains into central Illinois Sunday, then east northeast into
Ohio Sunday night. There is a 500 mb shortwave trough that may
weaken as it shifts east across Iowa into northern Illinois
Sunday. There has been an ensemble trend with keeping the
better or even most of the QPF in northern Illinois, as dry
northeast flow in the low levels may limit precipitation chances
in northern and even southern portions of the area. For now, will
leave the 30 to 60 percent chances in the forecast, but look
for continued refinements to the precipitation forecast as we
get closer to Sunday.

Gusty northeast to north winds later Sunday into Monday morning
may bring a high swim risk to beaches along Lake Michigan, as
the low pressure system moves east southeast of the region. A
Beach Hazards Statement may eventually be needed.

500 mb cluster analysis suggests a general trough may linger
over the region for the middle to later portions of next week,
with below normal 500 mb heights. This may lead to several
vorticity maxima rotating through the region at times, with
perhaps some surface low development and weak instability. For
now, will leave in 20 to 30 percent chances for showers and
storms at times during this period. Temperatures look to remain
somewhat below seasonal normal values, but still rather
comfortable for this time of year.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Scattered to numerous showers should move eastward across the
area from late afternoon into the evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may occur as well. May see hail and gusty winds
with a stronger storm or two mainly northwest of Madison into
early evening. Storms may have a tougher time pushing further
east during the evening. This activity should exit overnight.
May see brief MVFR visibility or ceilings reductions with any
showers or storms.

Gusty west northwest winds this afternoon should gradually
weaken into this evening, becoming more southwest overnight into
Saturday morning. Should see some clearing out of the clouds
later tonight as well.

High pressure should build into the area Saturday, bringing
mainly dry conditions. Gusty northwest winds are anticipated
Saturday late morning into the afternoon. May see scattered to
perhaps broken diurnal cumulus cloud development as well,
generally in the 4000 to 5000 foot AGL range.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Winds will turn south this afternoon, as weak low pressure
around 29.8 inches approaches the lake. It crosses northern
portions of the lake later tonight with nearly calm winds, with
southwest to west winds developing further to the south.
Generally light winds are expected Saturday into Saturday night
with high pressure around 30.0 inches moving through.

Low pressure around 29.5 inches should track eastward from the
central Great Plains on Sunday, reaching central Illinois
early Sunday evening, then into Ohio by Monday. East winds
overspread Lake Michigan Sunday, becoming gusty over southern
portions of the lake and turning northeast later Sunday into
Sunday night. Winds turn north and remain gusty into Monday,
particularly over southern portions of the lake. At this time,
winds look to remain below gale force over southern portions of
the lake.

Lighter winds return Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure
around 30.1 inches builds into the region.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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