NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 011718
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1118 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Around an inch of powdery snow mainly along and north of a
  line from Lone Rock to Kenosha today.

- Above normal temps are possible early next week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Light to moderate snow has quickly developed sewd from south
central WI into far se WI late this morning. This is
conjunction with a sewd moving vorticity maximum that is
approaching from the La Crosse area along with increasing
850-700 mb warm advection. 850 mb frontogenesis may be aiding in
some of the heavier banding as well. Widespread light to
moderate snow lasting 3-4 hours is expected mainly along and
north of a line from Lone Rock to Kenosha with upwards of 1.5
inches possible. The snow will shift a bit north with time then
dissipate from west to east from mid afternoon into the early
evening. Skies will then gradually clear through the evening
with lgt nwly winds expected.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 215 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Today and Tonight:

We ring in the start of 2026 with sub-zero wind chills with
negative teens up across east-central WI through daybreak. These
brisk conditions gradually improve through the late morning
hours, but temps will remain on the chilly side for New Years
Day with highs only topping off in the mid/upper teens to around
20F toward Lake Michigan.

Otherwise with the prevailing upper-level northwest flow, another
ripple of mid-level vorticity is progged to work its way down
across southern WI today. Overall models have been slow to pick
up on this feature and is the weakest wave over the past couple
of days. However, there does look to be enough moisture with
another swath of Pacific moisture working its way into the
region aligning with a bit of low-level WAA for another dusting
to half an inch of snow through the day late morning into the
afternoon/early evening. Impacts look to be limited given the
minimal upper-level forcing competing not only with drier low-
level and subsidence from the building high pressure over the
region, but also given its quick moving nature. This light snow
activity exits the area to the southeast by 00z tonight.

Tonight will be drier with light winds and mostly clear conditions
as high pressure continues to build across the Upper Midwest.
Looking at single digit to low teens lows overnight.Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 215 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

High pressure continues to build down from the Dakotas and into
the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. Overall pattern favors
dry, but additional ripples aloft may bring additional snow
chances at times through the weekend. Latest 00z models show
hints of this on Saturday and potentially again on Sunday.

Otherwise influence for high pressure and cooler airmass prevails
into the end of the weekend before an upper-level ridge axis slides
east into the region. WPC cluster analysis favors the 500mb ridge
axis settling over the Midwest through the first half of next week.
Given the agreement in the long range models and prevailing nature
of this pattern for a few days, expect temps to trend above normal
temps. Then this milder pattern hints at breaking down and
accompanied by additional precip chances through the midweek.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Widespread light snow along and north of a line from KLNR to
KENW today. Vsbys of 3/4SM-2SM with the snow but brief periods
of 1/4-1/2SM will also occur. MVFR Cigs will also occur with the
snow with MVFR Cigs decreasing from late afternoon into the
evening when the snow ends. VFR conditions then expected late
this evening through Friday.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Modest to brisk west to northwest winds will continue over Lake
MI today and Friday, then lighter winds take hold for the weekend.
This will occur as deep low pressure continues to gradually
weaken over Hudson Bay, while a ridge of high pressure around
30.1 inches extends from Minnesota into the Ohio Valley.
Moderate freezing spray will continue over eastern portions of
the lake into Friday morning. Expect a southerly wind shift into
the start of next week as the high pressure slides east of the
Great Lakes.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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