NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 020435
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1135 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost and below freezing temps expected tonight. A
  Freeze Warning is in effect for most of southern WI, with a
  Frost Advisory in effect over far southeast WI.

- More active pattern early next week with increased showers and
  storm chances Sunday through midweek. A short warm up is
  expected Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s,
  respectively.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1134 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tonight through Monday night:

The Frost/Freeze headlines are looking good late this evening
with mostly clear skies and temps in the lower to middle 30s.
Some scattered mid level clouds may move into srn WI during the
early morning hours as another weak vorticity maximum arrives,
but it should not impact temps too much.

For Sat, the nnwly flow aloft will continue to have weak
shortwave troughs embedded within it, so another round of
broken cloud cover for the afternoon is expected, but not enough
instability for showers. At the surface, light nwly winds will
back to wly winds during the afternoon marking the onset of
warm advection. This is in response to a west to east sfc ridge
across srn WI Sat AM shifting to the middle MS River Valley and
Ohio Valley by late in the day. High temps will continue to
range from upper 40s at the Lake MI beaches to upper 50s over
south central WI.

The low to mid level warm advection will increase into Sat nt-
Sun AM as a shortwave trough and wave of low pressure approach
from the west northwest. The nose of a swly 40 kt low level jet
will be the main catalyst for precipitation. Increased rain
chances to 50 percent for Sun AM. After the wave passes some
sunshine is expected and temps will climb into the 60s.

Yet another stronger shortwave trough and deepening low pressure
area will then track across far srn Canada, including the Lake
Superior region on Monday. Swly winds will bring a brief return
of 70 degree temps. The cold frontal passage will support 50
percent chances for showers and storms at this time. It appears
enough moisture may be available for tall, skinny CAPE and high
based storms given relatively low afternoon RH. Mdt to strong
wind shear will be present so if organized storms can form,
severe is possible.


Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1134 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tuesday through Friday:

An increasingly cooler period is expected as 1000-500 thickness
trough gradually deepens over the Upper MS River Valley and wrn
Great Lakes for the middle of the week. There will be 20-30
percent chances for instability showers each day.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1134 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Few-sct-070-090 stratocumulus for late tnt through Sat AM.
Bkn050-070 stratocumulus developing once again for Sat afternoon
then few- sct for Sat evening.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1134 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Winds will generally remain light and variable to northerly
tonight into the first half of tomorrow as high pressure of 30.2
inches sinks southeast over Lake Michigan. Winds are then
expected to become light and variable for a time again Saturday
afternoon before turning southerly Saturday night. Winds then grow
breezy Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure of 29.6 inches
approaches the lake, dragging a cold front over it. Winds will
only become westerly behind the front for a time, returning to
southwesterly on Monday ahead of another stronger low of 29.4
inches.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-
     WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 until 8 AM Saturday.

     Frost Advisory...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 8 AM Saturday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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