NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 161900
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
100 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures remaining 10 to 20-plus degrees above
  normal through Wednesday

- Widespread round of rain (about a 50 to 80 percent-plus
  chances) expected Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A
  few thunderstorms are possible later Tuesday night.

- More precipitation expected Thursday afternoon into Friday,
  with rain gradually mixing with and switching over to light
  snow

- Temperatures trending back toward normal by the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 100 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Tonight through Wednesday:

Warm temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected
this afternoon, with the gusty southwest winds ahead of a
frontal boundary. This boundary should shift southward through
the area this evening and to the south later tonight. There may
be enough low to mid-level moisture per forecast soundings with
the surface boundary to help generate a few sprinkles this
evening.

Winds will shift to the northeast and east later this evening
and overnight, with easterly winds on Tuesday, as low pressure
develops in the central Plains. This should keep the area on the
cool side of this system. This low level flow should allow for
low stratus clouds to move into the area overnight into Tuesday
morning, perhaps lingering into the afternoon and night periods.
There is some fog potential as well with these clouds, but not
seeing high enough dew points over the water to be concerned
about lake fog moving onshore at this time.

Lows tonight should be in the middle to upper 30s, with highs
Tuesday in the 50s well inland and 40s closer to the lake.

The warm front should move northeast through the area Tuesday
night and exit Wednesday morning, with winds shifting to the
west southwest and becoming gusty Wednesday in the dry slot
area. The frontogenesis response and focused warm air advection
Tuesday night, along with the passing 500 mb shortwave trough
and upper divergence from jet streak coupling aloft, should
bring a period of rain to the area. CAMs suggest that the better
organized precipitation may remain north of the area, so the
rain may be more showery in nature.

Forecast soundings continue to show small amounts of elevated
CAPE, so a few thunderstorms remain possible later Tuesday
night. Mild low temperatures Tuesday night should help
Wednesday highs reach into the upper 50s north to the lower 60s
southeast.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 100 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Wednesday night through Monday:

The next low pressure system will approach the area from the
southwest later Wednesday night into Thursday, before shifting
northeast either through or nearby the area Thursday night into
Friday. This is accompanied by a fairly potent 500 mb shortwave
trough/low pushing through the region.

There is still some uncertainty in ensembles on the surface low
track, which will impact the type of precipitation over the
area. For now, it appears that it may start out as mainly rain
Thursday evening, before mixing with snow later Thursday night
into Friday morning and ending with light snow later Friday.

Will continue to monitor the trends with this low pressure
system and its potential impacts for southern Wisconsin as we
get closer to this period. Temperatures may remain mild
Wednesday night into Thursday night/Friday, though a lot will
depend on the low track.

It looks relatively dry behind this system for next weekend into
Monday, as high pressure gradually shifts toward the area.
Temperatures may trend closer to seasonal normal values per
ensemble output.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 100 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will gradually weaken by
sunset, ahead of a frontal boundary. This boundary should shift
southward through the area this evening and to the south later
tonight. There may be enough low to mid-level moisture with this
boundary to help generate a few sprinkles this evening.

Light winds will shift to the northeast and east later this
evening and overnight, with easterly winds on Tuesday, as low
pressure develops in the central Plains.

This low level flow should allow for low ceilings down to 800 to
1500 feet AGL to move into the area overnight into Tuesday
morning, perhaps lingering into the afternoon and night periods.
There is some fog potential as well with these clouds, but not
seeing high enough dew points over the water to be concerned
about lake fog moving onshore at this time.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 100 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will become northwest to
north and weaken tonight, with low pressure around 29.9 inches
moving across northern Lake Huron. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan until 6 PM CST
this evening. Winds will then become east Tuesday morning and
increase during the afternoon, ahead of the next approaching low
pressure system.

East to southeast winds will increase later Tuesday into
Tuesday night, as strong low pressure around 29.2 inches moves
toward the region. Easterly gales are possible later Tuesday
night into Wednesday afternoon over the northern third of the
lake, where a Gale Watch is in effect. The warmer airmass over
the chilly lake waters may limit the mixing down of higher gusts
elsewhere across the lake.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters of
Lake Michigan from later Tuesday afternoon into later Wednesday
afternoon, for gusty winds and building waves.

After somewhat lighter winds later Wednesday into Thursday,
winds will likely increase Thursday night into Friday night, as
another strong low pressure system around 29.2 inches moves
through the region. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft
Advisory levels once again during this period.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM
     Tuesday to 3 PM Wednesday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...midnight Wednesday
     to 3 PM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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