NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 102339
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
539 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected this week into next week,
  with a warming trend.

- Small chances (15 to 25 percent) for light snow on Thursday
  for areas southwest of Madison.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 539 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Nwly winds and cold advection will prevail tnt-Fri AM as low
pressure over ern Ontario moves to New England. A stream of 500
mb vorticity extending from se Manitoba to nrn WI will settle to
central Lake MI by 12Z Wed, but subsidence will continue south
of it over srn WI. Thus expect stratus north of Madison and
Milwaukee to slowly dissipate through the evening but it could
shift a bit swd before doing so. Low temps in the lower 20s are
still expected tnt. The overall air mass is not too cold with
highs in the 30s for Wed, which will be aided by mostly sunny
to partly cloudy skies.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 115 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Broken low altitude clouds have encroached into all but far
southeastern WI early this afternoon, but should scatter apart
later this afternoon as the boundary layer mixes and dries out.
The northwest breeze and associated cold advection continue into
tonight, sending temperatures into the low 20s. The northwest
winds gradually weaken into Wednesday with highs in the 30s. The
scattered / broken low clouds Wednesday morning clear out
completely (in a SW to NE manner) into Wednesday afternoon as
high pressure builds into the Mississippi river valley. Clear
skies and calm winds are forecast Wednesday evening as the high
pressure rests overhead, allowing for strong radiational
cooling. Temps bottom out in the mid teens to mid 20s (coldest
further north) Wednesday night. High clouds build into the
region and thicken later Wednesday night ahead of a weak
disturbance covered in the Long Term discussion.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 100 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

The low to mid tropospheric baroclinic zone sets up in a NW to
SE manner across southern MN / northeastern IA Thursday, with
some surface to 700mb frontogenesis along it leading to a chance
for light snow. As it currently stands, we have 15 to 25%
chances for light snow southwest of Madison on Thursday (mainly
just flurries or a dusting if applicable), with dry weather
elsewhere. The FGEN / baroclinicity and associated precip
chances have been trending further and further from our region
with each model cycle, deeper into IA. The FGEN washes out /
dissolves into Thursday evening, and what's left of it passes
over the rest of southern WI. For this, we've left area wide ~8%
precip chances into Thursday evening before zeroing out into
Friday.

The Saturday night / Sunday precip chances have likewise
decreased (only 10-20% chances there, highest towards far
southeast WI), and the pattern looks to remain quiet and dry
until next Tuesday. Model guidance continues to converge on
ridging in the jet stream over the midwest, building and
amplifying later this week into early next week. Ensemble IQRs
for max temperature rise into the upper 40s early next week,
and even intersect the low 50s into Tuesday. Likewise our
deterministic forecast reaches the 40s to low 50s for high
temperatures by Tuesday (with the warmest conditions further
inland).

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 539 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Widespread stratus north of Madison and Milwaukee around 2.5-3.5
kft will slowly shift south but also decrease in coverage this
evening. Areas of MVFR Cigs will occur along and north of a line
from Madison to Milwaukee. VFR conditions to then take hold
from early Wed AM into Wed evening.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 100 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Breezy northwest winds continue into this evening, achieving 25
to 30 knot gusts into tonight as low pressure around 29.6 inches
tracks eastward past Montreal and high pressure around 30.3
inches builds eastward into the Mississippi river valley. We
can't rule out a few gusts to gale force tonight, but nothing
persistent / widespread.

The aforementioned broad area of high pressure slowly drifts
eastward into Wednesday, with northwest winds diminishing into
Wednesday night. Nearly calm or light and variable winds
expected on Thursday as it passes overhead. High pressure
continues east into Ohio later this week, working with weak low
pressure in central Ontario / Quebec to drive light
southwesterly winds over the lake Friday into Saturday.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee