NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 251922
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
222 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High swim risk at Sheboygan County beaches this afternoon and
  evening. Life threatening waves and currents are expected.Stay
  out of the water, and stay away from dangerous areas like
  piers and breakwalls.

- Scattered showers & storms (~30-50% chances) tonight areawide
  & once more Wednesday across the east. Can't rule out an
  isolated stronger storm with gusty winds or small hail.

- Rain-free & pleasant conditions late week.

- Trending active this weekend into early next week, with
  multiple periods of showers and storms forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 219 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Quiet pleasant weather will continue this afternoon and into the
evening. Breezy winds will cause high wave activity and rip
currents at beaches in Sheboygan County this evening. Swimming
is not advised.

Tonight, the environment will modestly moisten ahead of an
approaching cold front owing to some weak low level WAA. The
presence of the WAA and the lift from the front will allow for
some scattered shower and storm activity to form along the front
overnight with PoPs generally expected to be between 45 to 55%.
Storms in this environment are expected to be subsevere owing
the the weak shear aloft but MUCAPE near 1800 J/kg brought in by
the LLJ may be enough to support brief pulses in strength in
the storms that cause small hail. Some dryness in the lowest km
of the sounding may also suggest some moderately gusty wind out
of an isolated stronger storm. Some continued pop-ups may
continue through tomorrow in southeast Wisconsin ahead of a
500mb shortwave that will move in from the northwest.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 144 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Thursday through Tuesday:

An upper air ridge will be moving towards the region on Thursday
bringing colder and drier air from Canada. Surface winds will
start from the Northwest and shift to be from the northeast by
Friday morning with light winds expected all day. High
temperatures in the low 70s/upper 80s inland and low to mid 70s
near the shoreline. Low temperatures will be near the upper 50s
and lower 60s.

High pressure will continue to dominate the region on Friday.
Winds will shift to be from the southeast which will bring in
warmer and more moist air from the south near the surface with
cold/dry air still being advected from the north. Will see high
and low temperatures similar to Thursday.

The next low pressure system will start to move in on Saturday
from the Great Plains. Precip chances will start late Saturday
evening (20-30% chance). With an elongated trough expected to
move over the region on Sunday. PoPs will increase with a 30-50%
chance for precipitation. With warm and moist air near the surface
and cold/dry air aloft along with SBCAPE near 1500J/kg, there is
a chance to see storms within this system. Winds will be from the
southwest with gusts around 15 knots throughout the region with
higher gusts expected within storms.

A secondary trough will move through the CWA on Monday which can
bring additional precipitation chances (30-40) with a possibility
for there to be a storm or two. An additional shortwave will move
over the region on Tuesday, but rain chances with this system will
be even smaller (15-30%) along with a decreased chance for storms
compared to previous couple of days.

Soergel/CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 208 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions continue this evening amid light to moderate
south/southwest winds. Overnight, a cold front is expected to
approach from the northwest and cause scattered thunderstorm
activity. Background ceilings aren't expected to come down to
VFR as the storms move through, though drops in flight category
are expected with any storm. Some fog may also briefly form in
southwest WI before daybreak.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 144 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Breezy south winds will continue this evening as the pressure
gradient sharpens ahead of an approaching cold front and low
pressure of 29.7 inches just north of Lake Superior. Breezy
south winds will continue tonight through tomorrow morning as
the front slowly approaches, with winds becoming more
southwesterly with time. The front should then pass Wednesday
afternoon, with winds then becoming northwesterly and lighter
behind the front Wednesday night.

The northwest winds will grow breezier for a bit on Thursday
ahead of another cold front dropping south over the lake, but
winds will then become lighter and northeasterly Thursday night
into Friday as high pressure of 30.1 inches moves into the upper
Great Lakes region.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052 until 10 PM Tuesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 10 PM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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