NWS-Milwaukee/Sullivan Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KMKX 131044 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
544 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cooler today, with gusty northwest winds continuing.

- Warm and humid conditions with increasing storm chances
  returns this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 544 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Cyclonic flow at 500 mb will maintain scattered to broken,
perhaps overcast at times, clouds across the area today. Gusty
northwest winds are expected to linger into this afternoon as
well, with the good low level mixing and tight pressure gradient
lingering. Highs will be cooler in the 60s today.

High pressure moving southeast across the region tonight into
Thursday will bring dry conditions and light winds. Clearing
skies tonight may allow for patchy frost across portions of
inland areas, as lows there may drop into the middle to upper
30s.

A southeast lake breeze is expected by Thursday afternoon near
the lake, with light south southeast winds inland. Highs should
warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland, with cooler
temperatures near the lake.

Some showers (30 to 50 percent chances) may move east through
the area Thursday night into Friday morning, with some warm air
advection in the low levels with a passing weak shortwave
trough. There may be a rumble of thunder, but forecast soundings
are not showing much instability so kept it mainly out of the
forecast for now. Warmer highs into the middle 70s to lower 80s
are anticipated on increasing south winds.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1156 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Today through Thursday:

Expect continuing breezy northwest winds as low pressure
retreats east and high pressure moves in from the northern
plains. CAA will cause a dip in temperatures today, with highs
in the 60s.

Winds ease tonight as the high pressure moves overhead. Some
scattered frost may occur mainly over Green Lake, Marquette, and
Dodge Counties where temperatures are expected to be lowest in
the mid 30s. Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 30s to near
40.

High pressure lingers Thursday, with quiet conditions
persisting. Southerly winds will return during the afternoon and
weak WAA as ridging aloft builds into the area will allow highs
in the upper 60s to low 70s over much of the area.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1212 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Thursday night through Wednesday:

A warming trend and a more active pattern look to set up
Thursday night into next week as multiple waves of warm
advection kick off shower and storm activity through the
weekend and more spring-like humidity returns to the upper
midwest. It doesn't look like a washout, but favored times for
precipitation look to be Thursday night into Friday morning,
Saturday night into Sunday, and then Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. At this time, the best chances for stronger
storms would occur with the Saturday into Sunday activity, and
the Monday activity, as more potent shortwaves will roll through
aloft during these time periods.

With the warming trend, temps will rise into the upper 70s
Friday, and then 80s Saturday through Monday. The NBM projects
highs in the upper 80s for Monday, amid dewpoints near 70, which
will feel tropical compared to the recent low dewpoints and
relatively dry daytime RH values we have been experiencing.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 544 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Cyclonic flow aloft will maintain scattered to broken, perhaps
overcast at times, ceilings dropping to 2500 feet AGL or so into
this morning. These ceilings should rise to above 3500 feet AGL
this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds are expected to linger
into this afternoon as well.

High pressure moving southeast across the region tonight into
Thursday will bring dry conditions and light winds. Clearing
skies tonight are expected. A southeast lake breeze is
expected by Thursday afternoon near the lake, with light south
southeast winds inland.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 544 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Gusty northwest winds will continue into today, as low pressure
around 29.6 inches moves east of the region. A few gale force
gusts may occur over the open waters. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect into this afternoon for the nearshore waters
of Lake Michigan.

Lighter winds are then expected tonight into Thursday, as high
pressure around 30.1 inches moves southeast through the region.

Breezy southerly winds are expected to develop Friday, with a
few gales possible Friday afternoon and evening in northern
portions of the lake. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed
Friday into Friday evening for the nearshore waters. South to
southwest winds then linger Friday night into Saturday.

Winds should then increase gradually for Sunday, as a warm
front moves northward into the region, ahead of low pressure
around 29.2 inches in the central Plains.

CMiller/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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