DataStreme ECS Week Twelve: 29 November-3 December 2010

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• End of a season --
  With the end of November on Tuesday, 30 November 2010, the autumn meteorological season in the Northern Hemisphere will end with the start of the meteorological winter season on Wednesday (1 December). Recall that meteorologists have elected to use a standard three-month grouping to identify each meteorological season. Hence, September, October and November are considered the autumn or fall meteorological season, while the months of December, January and February are the winter season. You will note that the winter solstice, marking the day where the length of daylight is least in the Northern Hemisphere is still three weeks away, falling on Tuesday, 21 December 2010. Since the lowest temperatures typically fall in mid to late January, the meteorological winter tends to be centered on the coldest time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.
  In addition, the end of November also marks the end of the official hurricane seasons in the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, along with the eastern and central North Pacific basins.
• The 2010 hurricane seasons reviewed --
A quick review of this year's tropical cyclone statistics for official 2010 hurricane season has been made for both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]
• Comparing rainfall in 2010 Atlantic hurricane season with 2005 record season --
Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center produced corresponding maps of the tropical cyclone rainfall distribution across the North Atlantic basin (including the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and surrounding land masses in North and South America) during the 2005 and 2010 hurricane season. These precipitation maps were produced from data collected by NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite; cyclone tracks were also plotted on these maps for reference. Due to differences in the tracks of the tropical cyclones during these two active seasons, the area of largest precipitation during this nearly concluded 2010 season was displaced to the south and east across sections of the central Caribbean and the central tropical Atlantic as compared with the 2005 season, when most of the largest area of precipitation was over the Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean and the western North Atlantic. [NASA GSFC]
• Tropical cyclone climatologies of North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific --
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has an updated and revised edition of its "Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1851-2006." While a paper copy of this book is available for a cost from NHC, a 243-pg pdf file of this edition can be downloaded for free. NHC also released the first edition of "Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, 1949-2006." In addition to a paper copy is available for sale, a free 164-page pdf file is available. Both of these climatologies have numerous graphics that show long-term changes in tropical cyclone frequency in the two basins.
A climatology of tropical cyclones in the central North Pacific from the 1950s to 2008 is available from the CPHC climatology website maintained by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, HI.
• A glory seen above Antarctica Peninsula --
A scientist participating in NASA's Operation IceBridge fall 2010 campaign took a picture of a glory from the NASA DC-8 airborne laboratory. This atmospheric optical phenomenon, which is the product of the diffraction of reflected sunlight from tiny airborne water droplets, was seen over the Brunt Ice Shelf, south and east from the Antarctica Peninsula. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• Animated global maps show seasonal and variations in climate elements over last decade --
  NASA's Earth Observatory Mission at the agency's Goddard Space Flight Center have recently assembled animations generated from monthly data for a variety of climate elements collected by the sensors on board the NASA satellite fleet, primarily the Aqua and Terra satellites. These animations that may run up to eight years in length provide a means for visualizing the seasonal and interannual variability of surface temperature, aerosols and water vapor:
• An eight-year animation of Earth's monthly surface temperatures for the land surface running from February 2000 through September 2010 was obtained from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite. [NASA Earth Observatory]
  A corresponding animation of the sea surface temperature anomalies (arithmetic difference between actual monthly and the 1985-1997 average monthly temperatures) was produced from data collected by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) on the NOAA satellite series running from June 2002 through October 2010. [NASA Earth Observatory]
• An animation of the monthly average aerosol optical depth, which is a measure of the amount of liquid and solid particulate matter in the atmosphere, was produced for the interval running from January 2005 through September 2010 from data collected by the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite. [NASA Earth Observatory]
• An animation of the atmospheric water vapor, as described by the monthly average precipitable water, was produced from data collected by the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite from July 2002 through October 2010. The precipitable water represents the depth of an equivalent amount of water that could be produced if all the water vapor in the atmospheric column were condensed. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• Seasonal changes in aerosols over India --
  A series of maps obtained from the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite depicts the seasonal changes in the amount and type of airborne aerosols found above India. These maps represent averages for the pre-monsoon season (March through May), the monsoon (June to September), post-monsoon (October, November), and winter (Dec to Feb) for the years 2000 to 2008. The amount of aerosols is depicted in terms of the aerosol optical depth. [NASA Earth Observatory]
• Earth's lakes have been found to be warming --
Researchers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory using infrared imagery from NOAA and European Space Agency satellites, have found that the summertime surface temperatures of 167 large lakes around the globe have increased during the past 25 years in response to climate change. The average warming rate was 0.45 Celsius degrees per decade, with some of the greatest increases in the mid- to polar-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where rates where on the order of one Celsius degree per decade. [NASA JPL]
• Earth Observing-1 satellite celebrates tenth anniversary --
One week ago, officials at NASA celebrated the tenth anniversary of the launch of the Earth-Observing 1 (or EO-1) mission satellite, which was designed as a part of NASA's New Millennium Program. This mission had three objectives: to test new technologies; to provide images and data; to test new cost-saving software that would operate the satellite semi-autonomously and allow users to target the sensors. All objectives have been met and exceeded. The EO-1 spacecraft has several instruments used to observe Earth processes, including the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) and the Hyperion imaging spectrometer. [NASA GSFC]
• Sea salt sensor for new satellite undergoes preflight testing --
A team of scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Goddard Space Flight Center have gone to Brazil's National Institute for Space Research to participate in a series of environmental tests on NASA's Aquarius instrument that will be placed onboard a joint US and Argentine Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft to be launched late next spring. NASA's Aquarius instrument is designed to designed to provide monthly global maps of salinity (the concentration of dissolved salt) on the ocean surface, which should ultimately help in the studies of the Earth's climate through the monitoring of the planetary hydrologic cycle and ocean circulation. [NASA JPL]
• An All-Hazards Monitor --
This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
• Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes --
A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

• Global carbon dioxide emissions increase this year --
  The annual carbon budget update by the Global Carbon Project indicates that carbon dioxide emissions around the globe appears to have continued increasing toward record levels during 2010 following a reduction in the previous year. This study was made by researchers from the United Kingdom's University of Exeter and University of East Anglia, together with colleagues from other countries. [EurekAlert!]
• Role of mid-level clouds is studied --
A geoscientist at Texas A&M University is studying the role that mid-level clouds may play in the global climate. She is using data obtained from the sensors onboard NASA's "A Train" formation of six orbiting satellites to develop a better assessment of these understudied clouds. [Texas A&M News and Information Service]
• Clouds may play a big role in future climate --
Researchers from the University of Hawaii Manoa have assessed the performance of current global climate models in simulating clouds and the effects that clouds play upon the planet's climate, especially in terms of cloud feedback mechanisms. In a regional model that they developed for the eastern North Pacific, the researchers found that a warmer climate, such as one that may be encountered in 100 years, would cause the clouds to thin more and the cloud cover to diminish to a greater extent than what current global models would suggest. [EurekAlert!]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

• American maize has gone global --
  Maize, or corn, is a crop native to the Americas during the pre-Columbian era, but a map shows the global distribution of the corn crop in many locations around the globe in 2000. This map was generated from statistics provided by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization that were plotted on a general crop map made from satellite observations obtained by MODIS and Landsat instruments on NASA satellites. [NASA Earth Observatory]
• Polar bears could lose to grizzlies as temperatures rise --
Biologists at the University of California, Los Angeles report that changes in climate that result in increased temperature would appear to continue a decrease in the suitable habitat for polar bears, which would result in a decline in the polar bear population as they would be competing with grizzly bears for survival in a less-icy arctic regime. [Science Daily]
• How cacti escape near-lethally high desert surface temperatures --
Researchers at Occidental College, Los Angeles, California claim that they have discovered why the "living rock " cactus (Ariocarpus fissuratus) can survive soil temperatures near the surface that can exceed 70 degrees Celsius that often happen in the Chihuahuan Desert of southwest Texas. They claim that this cactus species copes with the effects of high temperatures by contracting its roots, which draws more of its self below the soil surface where temperatures are slightly lower. [EurekAlert!]
• Following dinosaur extinction, size of mammals exploded --
A team of twenty international researchers including those from the University of Calgary and the University of Georgia report that following the demise of dinosaurs approximately 65 million years ago, the mammals that inhabited the planet began an explosive increase in size within the subsequent 25 million years because of several factors. The loss of the dinosaurs meant more food for the mammals. In addition, a colder climate also served to permit mammals to become larger, as the larger mammals conserve heat better than smaller ones. Some of the mammals increased nearly one thousand times in size. [EurekAlert!] [EurekAlert!]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

• Old ship logs help in reconstruction of weather history during last two centuries --
  Various groups of professional and citizen scientists are examining long-buried ships logs and other notes made by weather observers in Europe and the United States that may date back over the last 250 years. Several of these groups include NOAA's Climate Database Modernization Program, the International Environmental Data Rescue Organization, the United Kingdom's "Old Weather" and the International Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth. Their efforts, which include digitizing these old records, are motivated by the desire to fill in the weather history since the mid 18th century, to place modern-day weather extremes into better context and to improve computer models that predict climate conditions. [USA Today]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Daily temperatures affect hospital admissions --
  A study of patterns of hospital treatment for both adults and children in 21 emergency care units across England between 1996 and 2006 revealed that a rise of 5 Celsius degrees in maximum daily air temperature was associated with a increase in children's admissions for serious injuries, while a loss of 5 Celsius degrees in minimum daily temperature was associated with an increase in adult admissions for serious injuries. Furthermore, the occurrence of snow caused an eight-percent increase in admissions. [Science Daily]
• Website for human dimensions of climate change --
An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]
• Earthweek --
Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Exposure to air pollution that would include a variety of gas species and particulate matter could result in health-related problems, especially those people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in climate could increase air pollutant exposure in several ways. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in heat waves are often stagnant, which reduce dispersion and create environmental conditions for photochemical reactions that increases ground-level ozone concentrations. Increased ozone has been shown to cause reduction in lung function. These heat waves associated with stagnant weather patterns would also increase fuel combustion for power generation needed for air conditioning. Changes in climate could also affect emissions of natural air pollutants and airborne allergens.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

While a range of negative health impacts would be possible from future climate change, adaptation would likely help protect the majority of the nation's population. This adaptation would entail maintenance of the public health and community infrastructure across the nation. Adequate water treatment systems would help curb waterborne diseases, while health care facilities and emergency shelters would help minimize the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
2. The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

• 29 November 1975...Red River was buried under 34 inches of snow in 24 hours, establishing a record for the state of New Mexico. (The Weather Channel)
• 29 November 1985...The temperature at Bismarck, ND plunged to 30 degrees below zero to establish their record low for the month of November. The high that day was 4 degrees below zero. (The Weather Channel)
• 29 November 1989...Sault Ste Marie, MI finished the month of November with a record 46.8 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 30 November 1976...MacLeod Harbor, AK reported a precipitation total for November of 70.99 inches, which established a state record for any month of the year. (The National Weather Summary)
• 30 November 1991...Minneapolis, MN ended the month with 46.9 inches of snow, the most ever for November and for any month. Although the official start of winter was still 3 weeks away, the city had already surpassed the normal seasonal snowfall record with 55.1 inches since 1 October (normal for the entire winter is 49.2 inches). (Intellicast)
• 1 December 1831...The coldest December of record in the northeastern U.S. commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington, VT the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum)
• 1 December 1913...A six day Front Range snowstorm began, ultimately producing 45.7 inches of snow at Denver, CO, the biggest single snowstorm on record for that city. It produced a record total of 46 inches at Denver, CO. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
• 3-10 December 1926...Record rain fell on Yuma, AZ over a one-week period. On the 4^th 1.10 inches of rain fell, and by the 10^th a total of 4.43 inches had fallen, to set an all-time December monthly record. The mean annual precipitation for Yuma is only 3.38 inches. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
• 3 December 1982...Big Fork, AR received 14.06 inches of rain, setting a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the state. (NCDC)
• 4 December 1982...The temperature in New York City's Central Park reached 72 degrees to establish a record high for December. The month as a whole was also the warmest of record. (The Weather Channel)
• 5 December 1941...The temperature at Enosburg Falls soared to 72 degrees to establish a state record for Vermont for the month of December. (The Weather Channel)

Return to DataStreme Earth Climate Systems website

Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2010, The American Meteorological Society.