WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK FIVE: 7-11 October 2013

ITEMS OF INTEREST

End of the growing season -- If you live in the northern portion of the country, the growing season may have already ended as cold air masses have moved southeastward from Canada. Check the maps produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center's Vegetation Program that show the first occurrence of 28-degree and 32-degree Fahrenheit temperature readings of this fall across the 48 coterminous United States. Comparison can be made with the map showing the median date of occurrence of the first 32-degree Fahrenheit temperature across the lower 48 states. (The median date means that half of the occurrences of a 32-degree reading over the 30-year normal occur prior to this date, while the other half occur after this date.) Following first frost, some delightful days should occur during October and early November in what is often called "Indian Summer."
Albuquerque Balloon Fiesta climatology is available -- The world famous Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta takes place near the beginning of each October; this year the 42nd annual event is scheduled for 5-13 October 2013. This nine-day festival involves as many as 750 hot-air balloons and is held over the Rio Grande Valley in the Albuquerque (NM) metropolitan area at this time of year because of the cool nights, sunny days and the lack of thunderstorm activity. Because of the cool autumn nights, the "Albuquerque Box" weather phenomenon occurs, which features light winds from the north near the surface draining down the Rio Grande Valley, while winds from the south aloft permit the balloons to move up and down in this box like feature so as to hover over a small geographic area. The Albuquerque National Weather Service Forecast Office has posted the Balloon Fiesta Climatology that includes the daily temperature and precipitation data for nearly each year of the event along with a further description of the "Albuquerque Box."
Draft of new climate change report released -- Last Monday, the draft version of the accepted report entitled "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" containing the Technical Summary, fourteen chapters and three annexes was released online in unedited form. This report was prepared by the Twelfth Session of Working Group I (WGI-12) for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). On the previous Friday, a "Summary of Policymakers" was released. [IPCC]
Information Statement on "drought" issued by AMS -- Within the last two weeks, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) issued a new information statement on drought that describes drought and its challenges, focusing primarily on concerns in the United States, while also addressing issues that are relevant on a global basis. The Society recommends an expansion of drought planning, research and preparedness at the local, state, regional, federal and international levels. This new statement would remain in force until September 2019. [American Meteorological Society]
Monitoring the drought -- During this past summer, many sections of the nation continued to experienced drought. See how the drought is monitored and assessed by reading this week's Supplemental Information…In Greater Depth.

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Canadian national seasonal outlook issued -- Forecasters with Environment Canada issued their outlooks for temperature and precipitation across Canada for October, November and December 2013, which represents the last months of meteorological autumn and the first month of meteorological winter. The temperature outlook indicates that most of eastern and northern Canada would experience above normal (1981-2010) temperatures for these three months. Only few scattered areas across the Prairie Provinces, British Columbia and the Yukon Territory could expect near normal temperatures.
The Canadian precipitation outlook for autumn and early winter of 2013 indicates that above average precipitation could be expected coastal British Columbia and along the US-Canadian border from east of the Rockies to Lake Superior. Several other scattered areas across northern Canada could receive above average precipitation. Scattered sections across the Northwestern Territories and over Newfoundland and coastal sections of eastern Canada could have below normal precipitation for these three months.
[Note for comparisons and continuity with the three-month seasonal outlooks of temperature and precipitation generated for the continental United States and Alaska by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, one would need to use Environment Canada's probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation.]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Melting Arctic sea ice may indirectly cause a decrease in the caribou population -- Penn State University scientists claim that melting sea ice in the Arctic may be an indirect cause for fewer caribou calf births and higher calf mortality in Greenland as the melting sea ice changes have been linked to changes in the timing of plant growth on land, which in turn is associated with lower production of calves by caribou in the area. [Penn State University News]
Early spring warming appears to have greatest effect on breaking buds on plants -- Scientists from Duke University, the Marine Biological Lab at Woods Hole and the University of Georgia have found that warming during the late winter and early spring across the Southeast and the Northeast would have a greater impact upon the timing of when buds on plants and trees would burst open. The researchers are concerned that changing climate conditions that would result in warmer-than-usual winters to the nation could make plants more vulnerable. [Duke University Today]

CLIMATE MODELING

Stepwise increases in carbon dioxide may lead initial rapid climate changes that then slow -- In a study conducted by researchers at the Carnegie Institution for Science and colleagues, 50 climate simulations performed using 20 different climate models for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals that after an instantaneous step increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, approximately half of the warming of the climate would occur increase within the first ten years, but then about one-quarter of the additional warming would occur more than a century after the step increase. [Carnegie Institution for Science]
Climate model used to study atmospheric electricity ....-- A research team using the Community Earth System Model originally created at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to develop a global electric circuit model that shows how electrical conductivity varies throughout the atmosphere and how that may affect the path of the electrical currents. The climate model was used to display the global distribution of water vapor and aerosols, two substances that affect the atmospheric conductivity. The researchers found that the atmosphere is generally less conductive over the Equator and above Southeast Asia, but more conductive toward the poles. Atmospheric conductivity also changes seasonally and with varying weather conditions. [University of Colorado Boulder]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Origins of life on Earth during Archean remain a puzzle -- Scientists from France and the United Kingdom have been attempting to solve the mystery as to why life evolved on Earth during the Archean Eon (between 3.8 and 2.4 billion years ago) when the Sun's energy was roughly three-quarters of its current strength, which should have made the planet too cold for life. Instead of being glaciated, the researchers claim that greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere were significantly higher during the Archean than they are today. They found that the amount of nitrogen in the Archean atmosphere may have been slightly lower than at present. [University of Manchester]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Keeping your cool!

In order to survive, humans need to maintain a nearly constant internal core temperature that is within several degrees of 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Your internal temperature depends upon an energy balance involving the gain and loss of energy from radiation (incoming solar versus incoming and outgoing infrared radiation), sensible heat transfer (conduction and convection), latent heat of evaporation (respiration and perspiration) and the body's metabolic rate. This heat transfer depends upon the differences between skin temperature and the ambient air temperature of the surroundings. In addition, wind and atmospheric humidity can affect the rate of sensible and latent heat transfer. Problems arise when either too much or too little heat flows to or from the body, yielding hypothermia and hyperthermia (heat stress) conditions, respectively.

When the air temperature increases, heat flow from the body is often reduced. Heat flow can be increased to maintain stable temperatures involuntarily by thermoregulatory processes such as increased perspiration (sweating) and dilation of the blood vessels. Humans can also act to prevent hyperthermia by selecting lightweight and light colored clothes, as well as seeking of shade and well ventilated locations. Unfortunately, high atmospheric humidity that often accompanies high summer temperatures also reduces body heat loss since evaporative cooling by perspiration is suppressed. During the summer, the National Weather Service alerts the public of potentially dangerous combinations of high air temperature and atmospheric humidity levels by calculating the Heat Index.

Statistics kept by the National Weather Service reveals that heat (along with high humidity) is responsible for the greatest number of weather-related deaths across the nation during the 10-year period (2001-2010), with 115 fatalities occurring per year. By comparison, 116 fatalities per annum are caused by tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), 56 deaths per year are associated from tornadoes and 25 deaths annually caused by the cold (low temperatures). (Note: The large number of fatalities associated with the hurricanes of 2005, which totaled 1016 deaths in the US due primarily to Hurricane Katrina, has inflated the annual averages associated with tropical cyclones.) Furthermore, concern has been raised that during this century, more frequent and more severe heat waves due to global climate change could become more common, leading to a greater risk of hyperthermia and, ultimately, to higher morbidity rates.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Each week you will be asked to respond to two questions relating to that week's Concept of the Week topic. Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The heat index is a function of air temperature and [(atmospheric humidity),(wind speed),(sunshine levels)].
The annual number of fatalities across the nation in the last ten years due to heat stress is approximately [(15),(60),(120)].

Historical Events:

7 October 1981...Seattle, WA received four inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the city. (The Weather Channel)
7 October 1987...Tucson, AZ hit 101 degrees for the second day in a row to again equal their record for the month of October. (The National Weather Summary)
7 October 1992...The 2.1 inches of snow that fell at Concordia, KS was the earliest measurable snow on record at that station. (Intellicast )
8 October 1871...Prolonged drought and desiccating winds from the southwest led to the great Chicago fire, the Peshtigo horror, and the Michigan fire holocaust. Fire destroyed more than seventeen thousand buildings killing more than 200 persons in the city of Chicago, while on the same night a fire consumed the town of Peshtigo, WI killing more than 1100 persons. In Wisconsin, a million acres of land were burned, and in Michigan, 2.5 million acres were burned killing 200 persons. "Tornadoes of fire" generated by intense heat caused houses to explode in fire, and burned to death scores of persons seeking refuge in open fields. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
8 October 1987...Phoenix, AZ reported a record high of 104 degrees and a record tying 116 days of 100-degree weather for the year. Tucson, AZ established an all-time record with 72 days of 100-degree weather for the year. (The National Weather Summary)
8 October 1988...The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Stampede Pass, WA exceeded their previous record for October by seven degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
8 October 1993...With 1.05 inches of rain that fell at Columbia, MO, the yearly total precipitation was pushed to 55.77 inches, breaking the annual record. (Intellicast)
9 October 1903...New York City was deluged with 11.17 in. of rain in 24 hours at Central Park to establish a state record, while 9.40 in. fell at Battery Park. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)
9 October 1980...Nashville, TN reached 91 degrees, highest ever for so late in the season. Just three days earlier, a low of 31 degrees was reported, lowest ever so early in the season. (Intellicast)
9 October 1981...The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)
10-16 October 1780...The most deadly Western Hemisphere hurricane on record raged across the Caribbean Basin, killing 22,000 people on the islands of Martinique, St. Eustatius, and Barbados. Thousands more die at sea. (The Weather Doctor)
10 October 1928...The temperature at Minneapolis, MN reached 90 degrees, their latest such reading of record. (The Weather Channel)
10 October 1967...Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island experienced its wettest day ever when 4.19 inches of rain fell. (The Weather Doctor)
10 October 1973...Fifteen to 20 inches of rain deluged north central Oklahoma in thirteen hours producing record flooding. Enid was drenched with 15.68 inches of rain from the nearly stationary thunderstorms, which established a state 24-hour rainfall record. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
10 October 1979...A storm blanketed Worcester, MA with 7.5 inches of snow, a record snowfall total for so early in the season for that location. The earliest measurable snowfall was recorded at Boston, MA with 0.2 inches falling. Blue Hill Observatory at an elevation of 635 feet had 7 inches. (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)
10 October 1991...Sacramento, CA hit 100 degrees setting a daily record. It was also the latest 100-degree reading and the warmest so late in the season. (Intellicast)
11 October 1977...The wet community of Ketchikan, AK experienced its wettest day: 8.71 inches. (The Weather Doctor)
11 October 2005...A tropical depression, the former Hurricane Vince, became the first tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in Spain. (The Weather Doctor)
12 October 1979...The lowest observed sea-level barometric pressure (870 mb or 25.69 inches of mercury) was recorded approximately 300 miles west of Guam in the western Pacific Ocean at the center of Typhoon Tip. (The Weather Doctor)
12 October 1982...Angoon, AK received 15.20 inches of precipitation, to set a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the 49th State. (NCDC)
12 October 2006...With 0.3 inches of snow falling at O'Hare International Airport, Chicago, IL set a new record for the earliest measurable snowfall since record-keeping began in 1871. The previous earliest date was 18 October in both 1972 and 1989. An unusually-early and intense lake-effect snow storm, resulted in 8.3 inches of snow that was measured at the official Buffalo, NY weather station on the 12th set a record for the snowiest October day in the station's 137-year history. The record did not last long, however, as the measurement on the morning of the 13th totaled10.9 inches. The two-day event totaled 22.6 inches (57.4 cm), breaking the October record for a single snowfall event. The storm was the sixth heaviest snowfall on record. (The Weather Doctor)

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