WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

Thanksgiving Week: 25-29 November 2013

This is Thanksgiving Break for the Fall 2013 offering of the DataStreme Earth Climate Systems course. This Weekly Climate News contains new information items and historical data, but the Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 11.

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving Week from the AMS DS ECS Central Staff and Ed Hopkins!

ITEMS OF INTEREST

End of a season -- With the end of November on Saturday, 30 November 2013, the autumn meteorological season in the Northern Hemisphere will end, followed by the start of the meteorological winter season on Sunday (1 December). Recall that climatologists and meteorologists have elected to use a standard three-month grouping to identify each meteorological season. Hence, September, October and November are considered the autumn or fall meteorological season, while the months of December, January and February are the winter season. You will note that the winter solstice, marking the day where the length of daylight is least in the Northern Hemisphere is still three weeks away, falling on Saturday, 21 December 2013. Since the lowest temperatures typically fall in mid to late January, the meteorological winter tends to be centered on the coldest time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.
In addition, the end of November also marks the end of the official hurricane seasons in the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, along with the eastern and central North Pacific basins.
High tech 3-D educational tool now installed at 100 locations worldwide -- Recently, the one-hundredth NOAA's Science On a Sphere® was installed NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, MD. For nearly a decade, the six-foot diameter Science On a Sphere® has been used at museums, aquariums, and science laboratories around the world by curators, educators and scientists, to provide inspiring 3-dimensional animations of planet Earth and help the public visualize planetary systems and processes. More than 400 annotated datasets are available to use on this sphere to highlight weather observations, climate models, ocean acidification, along with the latest solar system imagery. [NOAA News]
Accessing the national climatographies -- NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has produced numerous climatographies that are quantitative descriptions of climate that include tables and charts portraying the characteristic values of selected climatic elements at a station or over an area. Some of these climatographies provide a variety of daily, monthly and annual normal climate data for agricultural, transportation and other interests. This week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth provides the links to selected climatographies from NCDC.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of October 2013 global temperatures -- Preliminary data analyzed by scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center indicated that the global combined land and ocean average surface temperature for the October 2012 was 1.13 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average (1901-2000) for the month. Therefore, last month's global combined temperature was the seventh highest October temperature since global temperature records began in 1880. When considered separately, the monthly temperatures of the land surface for this recently concluded month tied October 2012 for the eighth highest October land surface temperature on record, while the October 2012 monthly average temperature over the global oceans also was the eighth highest October ocean temperature in 134 years.
Furthermore, when considering the combined land-ocean global temperature for the year to date, the temperature was the eight highest ten-month global temperature since 1880. [NOAA/NCDC State of the Climate]
A global map of Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for October 2013 is available from NCDC.
According to satellite data collected by National Snow and Ice Data Center, the sea ice over the Arctic Ocean during October 2013 had the sixth smallest areal extent for any October since satellite-derived ice records began in 1979. However, the sea ice around Antarctica was the largest October ice extent on record. [NOAA/NCDC Global Snow & Ice]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

NASA field campaign in Antarctica about to begin -- Scientists and support team members of NASA's IceBridge field campaign have arrived at McMurdo, the US research center in Antarctica, during the last week. This IceBridge field campaign is an extensive airborne field experiment being conducted to collect images and data of the polar ice utilizing highly specialized fleet of research aircraft and a sophisticated suite of innovative science instruments to determine annual changes in thickness of sea ice, glaciers, and ice sheets. In addition, IceBridge is collecting data to bridge the gap in polar observations between NASA's ICESat satellite missions. [NASA Earth Observatory]
New solar radiation measuring instrument placed in Earth orbit -- A satellite was successfully launched last Tuesday night into Earth orbit from the NASA Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia that carried an instrument called the Total solar irradiance Calibration Transfer Experiment (TCTE). This relatively inexpensive instrument, which is sensitive to solar radiation at all wavelengths, is designed to continue measuring the total energy output emanating from the Sun. The measurements of incident solar radiation made from orbiting space craft began in 1978 are meant to help ascertain if solar changes influence the Earth's climate. [NOAA News]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [ NOAAWatch]

CLIMATE FORCING

Land management efforts could help protect snow packs and water resources in Colorado River Basin -- Researchers at NOAA's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado, Boulder and the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory claim that reducing the amount of desert dust that is carried by winds onto the snow pack of the Rocky Mountains could help Western water managers deal with the challenges presented by a warmer future climate across the region. A warmer climate could result in more desert dust that would settle on the snowpack, causing the snow to melt much earlier than during the 19th century. The researchers warned that without appropriate land management techniques, the flow of the Colorado River could be reduced by more than 20 percent by 2100. [NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research News]
Pre-industrial rise in methane gas caused by both natural and anthropogenic sources -- Researchers at Oregon State University claim that increases in levels of atmospheric methane gas over the last 5000 years appears to be caused by both natural emissions and human activity such as the growing of rice. The researchers determined the methane levels from gas bubbles found in ice cores obtained from polar regions. Apparently, the methane increased by approximately 17 percent before the Industrial Revolution in 1750. [Oregon State University News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Official winter weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their new national Winter Outlook for meteorological winter (the three months of December 2013 through February 2014) across the nation. [NOAA News] Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, a large section of the Southern States extending from Arizona eastward to Alabama and the Florida Panhandle along with New England should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for these three upcoming months. The greatest probability of such an occurrence to be found across New Mexico, Texas and Louisiana, together with Maine. The northern Plains, primarily across North Dakota, were considered to have a better that average chance of below average winter temperatures. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the nation would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions. These regions would extend from coast to coast.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for sections of the southern Plains centered on New Mexico and the Southeast, primarily across northern Florida and southern Georgia, to have a better than even chance of below average precipitation for meteorological winter 2013-14. On the other hand, the northern Rockies and the adjacent high Plains in Montana would have better than even chances of above average rainfall totals for these three months. Elsewhere, a large area of the coterminous states should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for the end of autumn and the start of winter.
  A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that assuming that the current ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation) should continue into the Northern Hemisphere's meteorological spring, where neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions should prevail. A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-November 2013 through February 2014. Their outlook would call for persistence of extensive drought conditions across most of the southwestern quadrant of the nation extending from California's Pacific Coast eastward to the southern and central Plains. Drought should also continue across sections of the Midwest and coastal sections of the Northeast currently experiencing drought conditions. Drought conditions were expected to develop across sections of the Southwest and Southeast that were not currently under major drought conditions. However, only a few scattered areas of the interior Northwest and scattered areas across the Mid-South could see some improvement in drought conditions, with some areas possibly being removed from drought status. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Greenland's ice sheet may have been smaller during last 5000 years -- Using a new technique that they developed for interpreting the Arctic fossil record, geologists at New York State's University at Buffalo and their colleagues in Arizona, Denmark and Australia claim that the Greenland ice sheet was the smallest in recent history from 5000 to 3000 years ago. This small ice sheet followed a warm period on land between 9000 and 5000 years ago, while the oceans were warmest between 5000 and 3000 years ago. Their technique involved dating fossils found on moraines around the ice sheet. [University at Buffalo News Center]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

This Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 11.

Concept of the Week: Evolution of Climate Models

Climate scientists have been building increasingly sophisticated, mathematical climate models to serve two main purposes: test the sensitivity of the climate to altered conditions and simulate climate over time, either back into the past or forward into the future. The simplest, early type of climate model (zero dimensional) was the "energy balance model", which provides an average planetary temperature from incoming and outgoing radiation. A one-dimensional energy balance model determines the surface temperature from the energy balance at individual latitude belts.

More complex models involve the physical equations of motion (gas laws, thermodynamics and radiation interactions) subject to climate forcings, the boundary conditions of solar radiation, surface properties and atmospheric composition. As computers improved, models have included a three-dimensional oceanic circulation ("atmosphere-ocean coupling"), then interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere and geosphere, with climate feedback mechanisms involving the exchanges of heat and water. Finally, models have been able to incorporate the improved knowledge of the biogeochemical processes. Climate models calculate variables such as temperature at individual points within the three-dimensional grid of cells across the Earth's surface and vertically through the atmosphere, ocean, ice and land. A tradeoff exists between the number of grid points (the spatial resolution) and the number of numerical computations. Time and space accuracy costs increased computational time and expense.

The development of numerical weather prediction models during the 1960s and 1970s spurred the development of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate. One of the early atmospheric GCMs was developed at Princeton University's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). By the 1990s, comprehensive climate models were being perfected with three-dimensional oceanic circulation. Ultimately, the term GCM could be used to refer to a Global Climate Model that represents the major climate system components (atmosphere, ocean, land surface and polar ice) and their interactions. The Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research is one of the most comprehensive climate models currently available. This model has been used to determine the future temperature response for several scenarios concerning the release of greenhouse gases through the 21st century as proposed by the IPCC reports.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

General circulation models are generally [(less), (more)] sophisticated than energy balance models.
Increasing the spatial resolution of a global climate model causes the computational time to [(increase),(decrease),(remain the same)].

Historical Events:

26 November 1896...Snow and high winds hit the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley, with a Thanksgiving Day blizzard across North Dakota. The storm was followed by a severe cold wave in the Upper Midwest. The temperature at Pokegama Dam plunged to 45 degrees below zero, which remains the lowest recorded November temperature in Minnesota. (David Ludlum)
29 November 1975...Red River was buried under 34 inches of snow in 24 hours, establishing a record for the state of New Mexico. (The Weather Channel)
29 November 1985...The temperature at Bismarck, ND plunged to 30 degrees below zero to establish their record low for the month of November. The high that day was 4 degrees below zero. (The Weather Channel)
29 November 1989...Sault Ste Marie, MI finished the month of November with a record 46.8 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
30 November 1976...MacLeod Harbor, AK reported a precipitation total for November of 70.99 inches, which established a state record for any month of the year. (The National Weather Summary)
30 November 1991...Minneapolis, MN ended the month with 46.9 inches of snow, the most ever for November and for any month. Although the official start of winter was still 3 weeks away, the city had already surpassed the normal seasonal snowfall record with 55.1 inches since 1 October (normal for the entire winter is 49.2 inches). (Intellicast)
1 December 1831...The coldest December of record in the northeastern U.S. commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington, VT the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum)
1 December 1913...A six day Front Range snowstorm began, ultimately producing 45.7 inches of snow at Denver, CO, the biggest single snowstorm on record for that city. It produced a record total of 46 inches at Denver, CO. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)

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