WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS Week Twelve: 2-6 December 2013

ITEMS OF INTEREST

End of a season -- With the end of November on Saturday, 30 November 2013, the autumn meteorological season in the Northern Hemisphere will end with the start of the meteorological winter season on Saturday (1 December). Recall that meteorologists have elected to use a standard three-month grouping to identify each meteorological season. Hence, September, October and November are considered the autumn or fall meteorological season, while the months of December, January and February are the winter season. You will note that the winter solstice, marking the day where the length of daylight is least in the Northern Hemisphere is still three weeks away, falling on Saturday, 21 December 2013. Since the lowest temperatures typically fall in mid to late January, the meteorological winter tends to be centered on the coldest time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.
In addition, the end of November also marks the end of the official hurricane seasons in the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, along with the eastern and central North Pacific basins.
The 2013 hurricane seasons reviewed -- With the end of the official 2013 hurricane season in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific on Saturday (30 November 2013), a quick review of this year's tropical cyclone statistics for the official 2013 hurricane season has been made for both basins. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere] Additional information is available from NOAA News.
For those who are interested in obtaining historic hurricane information, the "Historical Hurricanes Mapping & Analysis Tool" developed by NOAA allows the search and display of detailed data for more than 6000 tropical cyclones in seven of the planet's major ocean basins based upon a data set that runs from 1842 to 2012. Coastal population trends are also available for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States.
Tropical cyclone climatologies of North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific -- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has an updated and revised edition of its "Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1851-2006." While a paper copy of this book is available for a cost from NHC, a 243-pg pdf file of this edition can be downloaded for free. NHC also released the first edition of "Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, 1949-2006." In addition to a paper copy is available for sale, a free 164-page pdf file is available. Both of these climatologies have numerous graphics that show long-term changes in tropical cyclone frequency in the two basins.
A climatology of tropical cyclones in the central North Pacific from the 1950s to 2008 is available from the CPHC climatology website maintained by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, HI.
High-quality maps of December temperature and precipitation normals across US available -- The PRISM Climate Group at Oregon State University's website has prepared high-resolution maps depicting the normal maximum, minimum and precipitation totals for December and other months across the 48 coterminous United States for the current 1981-2010 climate normals interval. These maps, with a 800-meter resolution, were produced using the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) climate mapping system.
December weather calendar for a city near you -- The Midwestern Regional Climate Center maintains an interactive website that permits the public to produce a ready to print weather calendar for any given month of the year, such as December, at any of approximately 270 weather stations around the nation. (These stations are NOAA's ThreadEx stations.) The entries for each day of the month includes: Normal maximum temperature, normal minimum temperature, normal daily heating and cooling degree days, normal daily precipitation, record maximum temperature, record minimum temperature, and record daily precipitation; the current normals for 1981-2010.
It's Sure Dark! -- Have you noticed that the sun is setting early these days? During the first ten days of December, many locations throughout the country will experience their earliest sunset times of the year. The exact day for the earliest sunset depends upon the latitude, so you may want to check the date in your locale from the sunrise tables appearing in an on-line, interactive service available for the entire year at most cities in the United States. The reason for the earliest sunsets occurring in early December rather than on the winter solstice (during the morning hours of Saturday, 21 December 2013) is that the sun is not as precise a timekeeper as our watches. Because of a combination of factors involved with Earth's elliptical orbit about the sun and the tilt of Earth's spin axis with respect to the plane of the ecliptic, the sun appears to "run fast" by as much as 15 minutes as compared with clock time in November. However, with the approach of the winter solstice and perihelion (the smallest earth-sun distance during the early morning of 4 January 2014), the apparent sun slows during December and finally lags the clock by 12 minutes in February. Consequently, a noticeable and welcome trend toward later sunsets can be detected by the end of December, especially by those residents in the northern part of the country. However, the latest sunrises occur at most locales in early January, meaning that early risers will continue seeing dark and dreary mornings for another month.
Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

National Weather Service Director discusses Super typhoon Haiyan and climate change -- Dr. Louis Uccellini, the Director of the National Weather Service, was recently interviewed by CNN and was asked about the a link between the intensity of last month's Super Typhoon Haiyan over the Philippines and climate change. He said that while the number of tropical cyclones may not be increasing, some of the storms may have become more intense. He also noted that coastal populations are increasingly vulnerable as climate change drives an increase in sea levels. [NOAA WeatherReady Nation News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Subglacial lakes discovered under Greenland Ice Sheet -- Using airborne radar measurements, researchers at the United Kingdom's Scott Polar Research Institute at the University of Cambridge have discovered two subglacial lakes under the Greenland Ice Sheet. These subglacial lakes apparently will influence the ice sheet flow, which would impact global sea-level change. Their discovery is important for understanding how ice will respond to changing environmental conditions. [University of Cambridge Research News]
All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [ NOAAWatch]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Canadian national seasonal outlook issued -- Forecasters with Environment Canada issued their outlooks for temperature and precipitation across Canada for December 2013 through February 2014, which represents meteorological winter. The temperature outlook indicates that southwestern Canada, primarily extending across British Columbia eastward into Alberta and northward into the southern Yukon Territory could experience below normal (1981-2010) temperatures for these three months. Several scattered areas across northeastern Canada could also have below average temperatures. On the other hand, sections of Ontario surrounding the Great Lakes, several of the Maritime Provinces, northern sections of the Yukon Territory and Canadian Archipielago could have above average winter temperatures. Elsewhere, a large section of Canada should have near normal temperatures for the next three months.
The Canadian precipitation outlook for the 2013-14 winter season indicates that scattered areas of below average precipitation across coastal sections of western Canada, the region around the Great Lakes, and across eastern Canada Conversely, above normal winter precipitation was projected for a large area extending across the Prairie Provinces, across northern sections of the Yukon and Northwest Territories, the Canadian Archipielago and sections of Newfoundland.
[Note for comparisons and continuity with the three-month seasonal outlooks of temperature and precipitation generated for the continental United States and Alaska by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, one would need to use Environment Canada's probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation.]
Australian tropical cyclone season outlook issued -- Forecasters at the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology recently released an outlook for the upcoming 2013-14 Australian tropical cyclone season that typically begins in November and runs through April. These forecasters foresee close to average tropical cyclone activity in the five regions that surround that continent. Their outlook is based upon the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status during the preceding July to September period. Close to average tropical cyclone activity is anticipated as ENSO-neutral conditions, which tend to favor average activity, were present during this most recent period and are expected to continue through this upcoming austral summer. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology]

CLIMATE FORCING

Air pollution causes clouds to linger -- Researchers from the US Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory report that air pollution with increased quantities of aerosols appears to make clouds linger by decreasing the size of cloud and ice particles while increasing their lifespan. In addition, pollution can also decrease the daily temperature range because of the lingering clouds. These discoveries should help assess the accuracy of weather and climate models. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory News Center]
Methane emissions nationally and in California 50 percent greater than expected -- Using a method they devised for more accurate methane estimations, researchers at the US Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory have discovered that the current official inventories of methane gas emissions nationally and from California may be underestimated by a factor of 1.5. Methane emissions from oil and gas production may account for a significant portion of the underestimated emissions both in California and nationwide, and may be as much as five times greater than the current inventory estimates of EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), the most comprehensive global methane database. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory News Center]
Releases of Arctic seafloor methane double previous estimates -- Scientists from the University of Alaska Fairbanks and their colleagues from Russia, Sweden and the US have discovered the seafloor in the Arctic Shelf off the coast of northern Siberia venting more than twice the amount of methane as previously estimated. They claim that this amount of methane is comparable to the amount released from the arctic tundra. Methane, a greenhouse gas, is stored on the seafloor as a pre-formed gas or as methane hydrates. [University of Alaska Fairbanks Cornerstone News]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Volcanic eruptions could have triggered ancient mass extinction -- Researchers with the Carnegie Institution for Science and of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology claim that the largest mass extinction in history at the end of the Permian period approximately 250 million years ago may have been triggered by large volcanic eruptions in present-day Siberia. More than 90 percent of the marine species were lost, along with 70 percent of the terrestrial species, with full recovery taking several million years. The volcanic eruptions apparently released large quantities of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide gases that created highly acidic rain that leached the soil of nutrients. In addition, halogen-bearing compounds could have resulted in a reduction in the protective global ozone shield. [Carnegie Institution for Science News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Mission launched to sound atmosphere of Venus -- Last week the Venus Spectral Rocket Experiment (VeSpR) was successfully launched from White Sand Missile Range. This two-stage spacecraft contains a sounding rocket designed to probe the atmosphere of Venus from above the Earth's atmosphere, using UV radiation. The goal of this mission is to study the escape of water from the Venusian atmosphere and relate these measurements to the past abundance of water on this planet. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Exposure to air pollution that would include a variety of gas species and particulate matter could result in health-related problems, especially those people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in climate could increase air pollutant exposure in several ways. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in heat waves are often stagnant, which reduce dispersion and create environmental conditions for photochemical reactions that increases ground-level ozone concentrations. Increased ozone has been shown to cause reduction in lung function. These heat waves associated with stagnant weather patterns would also increase fuel combustion for power generation needed for air conditioning. Changes in climate could also affect emissions of natural air pollutants and airborne allergens.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

While a range of negative health impacts would be possible from future climate change, adaptation would likely help protect the majority of the nation's population. This adaptation would entail maintenance of the public health and community infrastructure across the nation. Adequate water treatment systems would help curb waterborne diseases, while health care facilities and emergency shelters would help minimize the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

3-10 December 1926...Record rain fell on Yuma, AZ over a one-week period. On the 4^th 1.10 inches of rain fell, and by the 10^th a total of 4.43 inches had fallen, to set an all-time December monthly record. The mean annual precipitation for Yuma is only 3.38 inches. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
3 December 1982...Big Fork, AR received 14.06 inches of rain, setting a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the state. (NCDC)
4 December 1982...The temperature in New York City's Central Park reached 72 degrees to establish a record high for December. The month as a whole was also the warmest of record. (The Weather Channel)
5 December 1941...The temperature at Enosburg Falls soared to 72 degrees to establish a state record for Vermont for the month of December. (The Weather Channel)
6 December 1950...Duluth, MN had their greatest 24-hour snowfall when 25.4 inches fell. (Intellicast)
8 December 1938...The temperature at La Mesa, CA soared to 108 degrees to set a U.S. record for the month of December. Los Angeles reached 91 degrees, the only time a 90 degrees reading was reached in December in that city's history. (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)

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