WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK 7: 20-24 October 2014

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Looking back 50 years to Nimbus 1 satellite -- An image made of the North Atlantic's Hurricane Gladys in September 1964 by the High-Resolution Infrared Radiometer sensor onboard Nimbus 1 is compared with an image made within the last two weeks of Super typhoon Vongfong in the western North Pacific by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument onboard NASA's Terra satellite. Nimbus 1, which was launched a little more than 50 years ago, was the first polar orbiting NASA satellite to produce both daytime visible and nighttime IR images of tropical cyclones, including hurricanes. Six additional satellites in the Nimbus series were launched over a 14-year span that provided the first global data sets on the ozone layer, oceanic plankton, and the temperatures at different layers of the atmosphere. Numerous satellite images made by the Nimbus fleet of satellites along with their successors have been archived. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Monitoring El Niño and La Niña -- Scientists have suggested that the current ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO=El Niño/Southern Oscillation) should diminish and a weak El Niño event should develop during the remainder of meteorological autumn in the Northern Hemisphere and continue into the spring of 2015. This event should affect weather patterns across the United States during the upcoming winter months. For more details on how to monitor these phenomena, please read this week's Supplemental Information.. In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

National weather and climate reviewed for September 2014 -- Scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data collected during the month of September 2014. Based upon these data, September 2014 was the 26th warmest September across the coterminous United States since sufficiently reliable climate records began in 1895, with a nationwide monthly average of 66.2 degrees Fahrenheit. While the average maximum (daytime) September temperature across the nation was only 53rd highest, the nation's average minimum (nighttime) temperature for September 2014 was eighth highest in the 120-year record.
Nearly half the states across the nation experienced above to much above their 20th century (1901-2000) average temperatures. California, Nevada and Utah reported monthly average temperatures that ranked in the ten highest since 1895. States across the Plains and the Midwest had near average or below average temperatures. Only Illinois and Indiana had average monthly temperatures that were in the lowest 30-percent of the record.
The nationwide September 2014 average precipitation was approximately 0.09 inches above the 20th century average with a nationwide average of 2.58 inches making it the 46th wettest September since 1895. As many as 16 states across the West and Southeast had above to much above average statewide precipitation totals for the month. September precipitation totals across Arizona, New Mexico and Utah were in the seven highest in the 120-year record. States across the Northeast, the Midwest and the Mid-South had below to much below average precipitation. All of the six New England States had September 2014 statewide precipitation averages that ranked within the seven lowest on record. [NOAA/NCDC State of the Climate]
September national drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its September 2014 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately nine percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of September, while 15 percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.

CLIMATE MONITORING

Groundwater across Southern States has declined over last decade -- A map has been produced from data collected by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites that shows the change in the amount of water stored in aquifers per year across the United States from 2003-2012. This maps shows the greatest groundwater losses over the past decade were in the southern High Plains and California's Central Valley aquifers, which provide water supplies critical for the nation's crop and food production. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Sixth year of NASA's airborne Antarctic ice change study begins -- During the last week, the sixth consecutive year of NASA's Operation IceBridge began as the first research flights were made over Antarctica to study changes in the continent's ice sheet, glaciers and sea ice. This current airborne campaign will revisit a section of the Antarctic ice sheet that recently was found to be in irreversible decline. IceBridge researchers plan to measure regions of Antarctica that had not been previously surveyed, such as upper sections of Smith Glacier in West Antarctica, which appears to be is thinning faster than any other glaciers in the region. [NASA News] A review of this past season's IceBridge campaign in Antarctica was also addressed. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE FORCING

Pattern shows fewer tornado days with more tornadoes -- Following an analysis of EF1 or stronger tornadoes (on the Enhanced Fujita Scale) that were reported across the nation between 1954 and 2013, researchers at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory have found that the number of "tornado days" per year has decreased, while the number of multiple tornadoes on these days has increased. A tornado day is a day on which a tornado has occurred. This concentration of tornadoes indicates a greater likelihood of multiple tornadoes that would mean that communities should expect an increase in possible catastrophes. A relationship may exist between changing tornado activity and a changing climate. [NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research News]
Blended biofuel found to be a cleaner burning aviation fuel -- Researchers from NASA's Langley Research Program who participated in the Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails and Cruise Emissions (ACCESS II) experiment earlier this year have found a nearly 50-percent reduction in soot emissions from a DC-8 jet aircraft burning a blend of jet fuel and renewable biofuels at flight level. [NASA Earth Observatory ]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

New winter season Climate Outlooks issued -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their winter Climate Outlooks for the nation covering meteorological winter (in the Northern Hemisphere) that includes the three months of November, December and February. They foresee western sections of the nation, including Alaska and Hawaii, along with New England and Upstate New York to have a good chance of having above average temperatures during this coming winter of 2014-15. On the other hand, below average winter temperatures would be likely across many of the Southern States extending from the southern Rockies eastward to Florida and the Carolinas Furthermore, they indicate that a repeat of the very cold and snowy weather conditions of last winter appears to be unlikely. [NOAA News]
A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that assuming that the current ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation , with neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions) should become a weak El Niño by late autumn or early winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-October 2014 through January 2015. Their outlook would call for the persistence or expansion of extensive drought conditions across the western third of the nation, running northward from southern California across Oregon to Washington and eastward across Nevada, Idaho and Utah. On the other hand, sections of the Southwest, running from Arizona eastward across New Mexico to Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas could see improvement in drought conditions, with some areas possibly being removed from drought status. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.
Sea level rises of 1.8 meters viewed as a worst-case scenario -- Researchers at the Denmark's Niels Bohr Institute (at the University of Copenhagen) and their colleagues have calculated the risk for a worst-case scenario for sea level rise during the 21st century and have determined that in this worst case, the sea level would rise by a maximum of 1.8 meters (5.9 feet). The biggest question in their projection remains the rate at which the polar ice sheets would melt. [University of Copenhagen News]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

First national network to monitor marine biodiversity initiated -- The U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) has formed a partnership with the NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, NASA and the U.S. Department of Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to initiate the first network in the nation to monitor marine biodiversity at scales ranging from microbes to whales, especially in times when fragile coastal and marine ecosystems are threatened by human activity and climate change. This collaboration will support three pilot networks in the Florida Keys, off the California coast and in Alaska's Chukchi Sea that will provide a prototype of this national marine biodiversity observation network. [NOAA National Ocean Service and IOOS]
Assessment of impacts of offshore wind farms on marine species -- Researchers at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science and colleagues have recently reviewed the potential impacts that the development of offshore wind farms could have on marine species in these coastal ocean waters. They also made recommendations for future monitoring efforts and assessment with increased interest in offshore wind energy around the world. [University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Drought of 1934 was worst across North America in last millennium -- Scientists from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory using a reconstruction of North American drought history over the last 1000 years have determined that the drought of 1934 was the driest and most widespread of the last millennium. They found the 1934 drought, which extended across 71.6 percent of western North America, was 30 percent more severe than the second most severe drought in 1580. Comparatively, the average extent of the recent 2012 drought was 59.7 percent. The researchers point to two factors that contributed to the severity and extent of the 1934: A persistent high pressure system located over the US West Coast that deflected storms away from the region and the number of dust storms caused by poor land management practices in the spring of 1934 that suppressed rainfall. [NASA's Earth Science News Team]
New climate model suggests that icebergs once drifted to Florida -- Scientists from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Coastal Carolina University using a sophisticated high-resolution numerical model to describe the ocean circulation during the last Ice Age at approximately 21,000 years ago have shown that that icebergs and melt water from North America's Laurentide ice sheet would have regularly reached South Carolina and even southern Florida more than 3000 miles to the south. Discovery of iceberg scour marks on the sea floor along the entire continental shelf support the models. [University of Massachusetts Amherst News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

European countries driven to adapt to climate change by extreme weather -- A new report from the European Environment Agency entitled "National adaptation policy processes in European countries – 2014" included an analysis of the detailed responses from 30 European nations to the adaptation to climate change. The current survey indicates that adapting to climate change has reached the political agenda in most European countries. Extreme weather events and European Union (EU) policies were the most common reasons for beginning to address adaptation. [European Environment Agency]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Seawater Salinity and Carbon Dioxide

The contemporary concern regarding global climate change has caused scientists to study the various factors that govern the ocean's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, are on the rise primarily because of increased burning of fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be contributing to increased global temperatures, a condition often identified as global warming. The ocean's role in regulating the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the temperature, salinity, and biological components of surface waters.

Studies show that the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide is primarily temperature dependent. As noted in Chapter 8 of your textbook, gases are more soluble in cold seawater than warm seawater. Hence, changes in sea surface temperature affect the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide. We also found in Chapter 1, photosynthetic organisms assimilate carbon dioxide and release oxygen. Through cellular respiration, all organisms release carbon dioxide. Therefore, biological activity affects the ocean's ability to absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

What about the effects of changes in salinity on the ocean's uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Research from the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii provides some insight on this question. For nearly 20 years, scientists have been collecting physical, chemical and biological data through a large column of ocean water at Station ALOHA, a sampling site about 100 km (62 mi) north of Oahu that appears representative of oceanic conditions in the central North Pacific. In 2003, David M. Karl, a biogeochemist at the University of Hawaii in Honolulu, reported a decline in the rate at which surface ocean waters were absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In 2001, the rate of carbon dioxide uptake was only about 15% of the rate in 1989. Why the change in carbon dioxide uptake? In this region of the Pacific north of Hawaii, sea surface temperatures showed no significant change during the period of observation but precipitation decreased and evaporation increased. Less precipitation associated with drought coupled with higher rates of evaporation caused the surface water salinity at ALOHA to increase by about 1%. Increasing salinity inhibits water's ability to absorb gases including carbon dioxide. Karl and his colleagues attribute 40% of the decline in the ocean's carbon dioxide uptake to the saltier waters. The balance of the decline may be due to changes in biological productivity or ocean mixing.

Projected changes in global climate indicate significant changes in precipitation around the globe including reduced precipitation over various large areas of the oceans, resulting in potential "drought" conditions. Since changes in oceanic salinity result from changes in precipitation, the contribution that salinity plays on future assimilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the ocean also becomes an important consideration.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

With rising sea surface temperatures, the rate of evaporation of seawater [(increases), (decreases)].
With increasing salinity and constant temperature, the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is taken up by ocean water [(increases), (decreases)].

Historical Events:

20 October 2004...Rain at two stations in Nevada broke the state's previous 24-hour maximum precipitation record of 7.13 inches set previously at Mt. Rose Highway Station (31 January 1963). The new state record of 9.78 inches was established at Mt. Charleston, while Kyle Canyon also broke the old record with 8.75 inches. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
21 October 1996...Portland, ME received 13.32 inches of rain to set a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the Pine Tree State. (NCDC)
22 October 1987...Yakutat, AK surpassed their previous all-time yearly precipitation total of 190 inches. Monthly records were set in June with 17 inches, in September with 70 inches, and in October with more than 40 inches. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
24 October 1951...Sacramento, CA reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record low for October. (The Weather Channel)
25 October 1977...Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)
26 October 1859...New York City had their earliest substantial snow of record as four inches blanketed the city. (David Ludlum)
26 October 1919...The temperature at Bismarck, ND plunged to ten degrees below zero, the earliest subzero reading of record for the city, and a record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)
26 October 1926...Barrow, AK received a record fifteen inches of snow, and also established a 24-hour precipitation record of 1.00 inch, which lasted until the 21st of July in 1987. (The Weather Channel)
26 October 1993...The temperature at Eureka, CA soared to 87 degrees to set an all-time high temperature record for the city. (Intellicast)

Return to DataStreme ECS website