WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK ELEVEN: 17-21 November 2014

ITEMS OF INTEREST

A Long Polar Night -- After being above the horizon for only 66 minutes this Tuesday, the sun set at 1:45 PM Alaska Standard Time (18 November 2014) at Barrow, the northernmost city in Alaska, for the last time this year. The next time the sun will rise above the local horizon in Barrow will be at 1:05 PM AST on 23 January 2015. On that date, the sun will remain above the horizon for 69 minutes. While the sun will be below the horizon for the next 66 days, residents of this city will have roughly three hours of some diffuse sunlight each day that is equivalent to civil twilight, provided the cloud cover is not too thick. To check the sunrise and sunset times of Barrow or any location in the United States go to the US Naval Observatory's on-line, interactive service for the entire year.
Watching a meteor shower -- This year's Leonid meteor showers should peak during the predawn hours of this coming Monday night and Tuesday morning (17-18 November 2014). The Leonid meteor showers, which appear to emanate from the constellation Leo, occur in November as Earth passes through the debris trail from Comet Tempel-Tuttle. As many as 15 dozen meteors per hour are expected this year. Fortunately, the moon should not interfere greatly with viewing conditions, even where city lights and clouds do not block the sky. The shower's radiant, or originating point, will be in the eastern sky after sunset and then will shift to the west after local midnight. [Astronomy]
Celebrate Geography Awareness Week and GIS Day -- This upcoming week (16-22 November 2014) has been identified as Geography Awareness Week. National Geography Awareness Week, launched by presidential proclamation in 1987, is designed to draw attention to geo-literacy and "the importance of geographic understanding in ensuring our nation's economic competitiveness, national security, environmental sustainability, and the livability of our communities in the 21st century." Since the National Geographic Society is focusing on food throughout 2014. this year's Geography Awareness Week theme is "The Future of Food."
In conjunction with Geography Awareness Week, this coming Wednesday (19 November 2014) has been designated GIS Day that commenced in 1999 "provides an international forum for users of geographic information systems (GIS) technology to demonstrate real-world applications that are making a difference in our society." This year's theme "Discovering the World Through GIS." [ GIS Day]
Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2014 Campaign continues -- The series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2014 will continue with its 10-night campaign that runs through 21 November. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Perseus in the Northern Hemisphere and Cetus in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. This campaign that will focus on Hercules will continue in July and August. [GLOBE at Night]
Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of October weather and climate across the US -- Preliminary data for October 2014 from across the nation have led scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to report that the nationwide average temperature for this past month was approximately 3.0 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) long term average, making this recently concluded month the fourth warmest October since a comprehensive national climate network began in 1895. Furthermore, the average maximum (or daytime) October temperature for 2014 was eighth highest on record for the month, while the average minimum (or nighttime) October 2014 temperature was the fifth highest on record. With the exception of the nine states in the Midwest and the Ohio Valley and Florida, the remained of the 48 contiguous United States experienced above or much above statewide average October temperatures. Furthermore, all the states from the Rockies westward to the Pacific Coast, including Texas, had statewide temperatures that were within the ten highest October temperatures during the last 120 years. In addition, several of the New England and Middle Atlantic States reported October average statewide temperatures that were in the top ten on record. No state reported a below average statewide average October temperature.
Preliminary precipitation records for October 2014 indicate that the month was slightly wetter than the 20th century average, with the monthly average precipitation for the 48 coterminous states being approximately 0.17 inches above average. Dry conditions were found across the Great Basin, the northern Rockies and the northern Plains, with both Nevada and Utah reporting their fifth driest October on record. Florida also was relatively dry. On the other hand, a large portion of the Mississippi Valley, the Midwest and the Northeast had above average precipitation. Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee had statewide October precipitation totals that ranked them in the top ten wettest Octobers in the 120-year record. [NOAA/NCDC State of the Climate]
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCDC for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCDC]
October drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its October 2014 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately eight percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of October, while 12 percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
"Coldest day of the year" is on the horizon -- NOAA's National Climatic Data Center recently produced a set of "Coldest Day of the Year" maps for the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico showing the dates of the lowest daily minimum temperatures of the year as calculated from the 1981-2010 climate normals. Many places across the West will experience their lowest daily temperatures starting during the next two to three weeks in early December. On the other hand, some areas across the West will not reach their lowest daily temperatures of the year until late January. [NOAA National Climatic Data Center News] [Note: For comparison purposes, check the corresponding map for the "Warmest Day of the Year" that shows the times of occurrence of the highest maximum temperatures. EJH]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

World's oceans have reached record warmth for instrumental period -- A climate scientist at the University of Hawaii at Manoa reports that the global mean sea surface temperatures during this past meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere (June through August 2014) were the highest temperatures ever recorded since systematic measuring commenced. These summer 2014 temperatures even exceeded those observed during the record-breaking 1998 El Niño year. According to this researched, most of the global ocean warming in 2014 has occurred in the North Pacific, which warmed far beyond any previously recorded value. The higher temperatures appear to have shifted hurricane tracks and weakened trade winds. He also notes that these current record-breaking temperatures indicate that the 14-year-long pause in ocean warming has ended. [Nature World News]
New "wind watcher" satellite declared ready for weather/climate forecasters -- Following nearly month of testing, the International Space Station-Rapid Scatterometer (ISS-RapidScat) has been recently cleared to provide surface wind data over the world's oceans on an operational basis to weather forecasters at the NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center along with the US Navy, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). This scatterometer instrument had been launched in late September and then was installed on the International Space Station for a two-year mission designed to boost global monitoring of ocean winds for improved weather forecasting and climate studies. [NASA Global Change News]
Groundwater warms along with atmospheric warming -- Researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH) report that long term groundwater temperature data collected for approximately 40 years from waterworks around the German cities of Cologne and Karlsruhe show that the groundwater temperatures tend to mirror the corresponding changes in near surface air temperatures due to a warming climate, but at rate that is damped and delayed. [ETH Zurich News]

CLIMATE FORCING

East Coast hurricanes can flood the Midwest -- Researchers from the University of Iowa and other research institutions have found that tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) originating in the North Atlantic Ocean basin are capable of producing flooding rains across sections of the Midwest that include Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan. They based their analysis upon the river discharge records from 3090 US Geological Survey stream gauge stations between 1981 and 2011, finding that the rains from North Atlantic tropical cyclones impact large areas of the United States. [University of Iowa NOW]
Methane emissions in Alaska show little significant rise -- A new analysis of airborne data obtained from NASA's multiyear Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) indicates that methane being released from Alaskan soils into the atmosphere is not occurring at unusually high rates, although high concentrations of atmospheric methane have been measured at individual Arctic sites, especially in Siberia. Furthermore, large increases in air temperature in Alaska have occurred in recent decades. [NASA Earth Science News Team ]
New global maps show human-caused ocean acidification -- A team of scientists led by a geochemist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory has published detailed monthly global maps of acidity levels across the world's oceans that show seasonal variations in these acidity levels. Their study also shows how changes in these levels have been caused by the large quantities of atmospheric carbon absorbed by the oceans due to human-caused carbon emissions. [NOAA News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Lightning strikes across nation could increase by 50 percent due to increased temperatures -- A climate scientist at the University of California Berkley and his colleagues recently reported that their analysis of the output from numerical simulations generated by eleven climate model indicates a 50 percent increase in the lightning strikes across the US during the remainder of this century due to a projected increase in temperatures across the nation due to climate change. Two atmospheric properties that they considered in their study of lightning were precipitation and cloud buoyancy. [University of California Berkley News Center]

CLIMATE MODELING

Supercomputers and high-resolution climate models provide truer simulations of extreme weather -- A climate scientist at the US Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory who is also a lead author for the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that the most modern supercomputers currently available are capable of running a high-resolution global climate model that not only produces simulations closer to actual observations, but has the capability of reproducing intense storms such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and midlatitude storms. This new model is the fifth version of the Community Atmospheric Model, developed by the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation for use by the scientific community. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory News]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Rhode Island's salt marshes affected by sea-level rise -- The Rhode Island Sea Grant Program working with several state and local agencies has developed the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) that is being used to identify existing salt marsh conditions an vulnerable areas along the coast of Rhode Island. They have found that rises in sea level have caused a drowning of the state's salt marshes. This model, which utilizes topographic and salt marsh vegetation survey data, is also being used to predict how possible future changes in sea level would affect the remaining salt marshes. [NOAA Sea Grant News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Exposure to air pollution that would include a variety of gas species and particulate matter could result in health-related problems, especially those people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in climate could increase air pollutant exposure in several ways. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in heat waves are often stagnant, which reduce dispersion and create environmental conditions for photochemical reactions that increases ground-level ozone concentrations. Increased ozone has been shown to cause reduction in lung function. These heat waves associated with stagnant weather patterns would also increase fuel combustion for power generation needed for air conditioning. Changes in climate could also affect emissions of natural air pollutants and airborne allergens.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

While a range of negative health impacts would be possible from future climate change, adaptation would likely help protect the majority of the nation's population. This adaptation would entail maintenance of the public health and community infrastructure across the nation. Adequate water treatment systems would help curb waterborne diseases, while health care facilities and emergency shelters would help minimize the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

17 November 1953...The temperature at Minneapolis, MN reached 71 degrees, their warmest reading of record for so late in the autumn. (The Weather Channel)
18 November 1955...An early season cold snap finally came to an end. Helena, MT experienced 138 consecutive hours of subzero temperatures, including a reading of 29 below zero, which surpassed by seven degrees their previous record for the month of November. Missoula, MT broke their November record by 12 degrees with a reading of 23 below zero, and Salt Lake City, UT smashed their previous November record of zero degrees with a reading of 14 degrees below zero. Heavy snow in the Great Basin closed Donner Pass, CA and total crop damage from the cold wave amounted to eleven million dollars. (David Ludlum)
19 November 1957...Nineteen inches of snow covered the ground at Cresco, IA, a record November snow depth for the state. (The Weather Channel)
19 November 1996...A 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the state of Oregon was established when 11.65 in. of rain fell at Port Orford. (NCDC)
19 November 2009...Adelaide, Australia reported a temperature reading of 109 degrees, which set an all-time record high for the month of November, Elliston had a 111-degree reading, which was its all-time record for any day. The month of November 2009 was the warmest November on record for Australia. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
20 November 1914...The high temperature of 28 degrees at Atlanta, GA was their earliest daily high below the freezing mark. (The Weather Channel)
20 November 1979...A blizzard struck Cheyenne, WY producing a record 19.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a record total of 25.6 inches in forty hours. Strong winds created huge drifts stopping all transportation. (19^th-21^st) (The Weather Channel)
23 November 1909...Rattlesnake Creek was deluged with 7.17 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state of Idaho. (The Weather Channel)
23 November 1943...Northern New Hampshire was in the grips of a record snowstorm that left a total of 55 inches at Berlin, 56 inches at Randolph and many other locations over 40 inches. The 56-inch total at Randolph in Coos County established a 24-hour snowfall record for the state. In Maine, Middle Dam received a record 35 inches of snow in 24 hours. (David Ludlum)
23 November 1974...Bismarck, ND was in the middle of a 5-day snowstorm during which 28.3 inches fell, the greatest on record. (Intellicast)
23 November 1983...A 24-hour snowfall record for Duluth, MN was broken with 16.9 inches. 19.7 inches fell during the entire storm, also a record.
23 November 1991...La Crosse, WI set a new record for 24-hour snowfall with 13 inches. This storm brought the monthly total to 28.2 inches, also a record. (Intellicast)

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