WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK 7: 19-23 October 2015

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Ten-part "When Nature Strikes" video series released for classroom use -- The National Science Foundation has partnered with the Weather Channel and NBC Learn to produce a 10-part video series called "When Nature Strikes: Science of Natural Disasters" that is intended for earth science teachers to use in the classroom. Topics include earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, flash floods, tornadoes, space weather and tsunamis. [National Science Foundation News]
GOES series of environmental satellites celebrates 40th anniversary -- Last Friday (16 October) marked the 40th anniversary of the launch of the first in the series of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), which was identified as GOES-1. This satellite, the first of 15 satellites to be part of the GOES series, was launched on 16 October 1975 by NASA into geosynchronous orbit around planet Earth and operated by NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). Sensors onboard these satellites collect and transmit a nearly continuous stream of environmental data to ground-based receiving stations for use in monitoring weather systems, especially severe weather events, weather forecasting and meteorological research. [NOAA NESDIS News] or [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]
Monitoring El Niño and La Niña -- Scientists have suggested that a major El Niño event is developing that could peak during late meteorological autumn in the Northern Hemisphere and weaken in the boreal meteorological spring season of 2016. This event should affect weather patterns across the United States during the upcoming winter months. For more details on how to monitor these phenomena, please read this week's Supplemental Information.. In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Leaf peeping of this fall's colors from different perspectives -- Natural-color images obtained from the MODIS sensors on NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites during the last week reveal this autumn season's advance of fall colors in the deciduous forests across the Northeastern States in the US and the eastern Canadian provinces, from the Great Lakes eastward to the Atlantic Coast. These satellites are in a sun-synchronous orbit approximately 440 miles above the Earth's surface. [NASA Earth Observatory]
From a much lower perspective, a video of fall coloration was made by a drone flying over Vermont's Green Mountains during the first week of October. [Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog]
National weather and climate reviewed for September 2015 -- Scientists at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI or formerly, National Climatic Data Center) recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data collected during the month of September 2015. Based upon these data, September 2015 was the second warmest September across the coterminous United States since sufficiently reliable climate records began in 1895, with a nationwide monthly average of 68.5 degrees Fahrenheit. While the average maximum (daytime) September temperature across the nation was fourth highest, the nation's average minimum (nighttime) temperature for September 2015 was second highest in the 121-year record.
Most (41) of the 48 contiguous states experienced above to much above their 20th century (1901-2000) average temperatures. Nine states (Connecticut, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Utah, and Wisconsin) reported record high statewide September monthly temperatures. States in the Northwest and the Southeast had statewide temperatures close to the long-term averages.
The nationwide September 2015 average precipitation was approximately 0.40 inches below the 20th century average with a nationwide average of 2.09 inches making it the 21st driest September since 1895. A dozen states across the lower and mid-Mississippi Valleys, the southern Plains and the southern and central Rockies reported below-average precipitation, with Arkansas having its eleventh driest September on record. On the other hand, above-average precipitation was observed across ten Midwestern, Mid-Atlantic and New England States. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
September national drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its September 2015 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately 15 percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of September, while nine percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
Current El Niño event continues to strengthen -- NOAA and NASA scientists recently confirmed that the current El Niño event continues to strengthen and could become a strong event that would rival the historic 1997-98 event. They base their findings upon a variety of observations of sea surface heights and temperatures, along with atmospheric winds. These observations using the altimeter onboard NASA's Jason-2 satellite show October 2015 sea level height anomalies that are at least as large as those collected by the altimeter on NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon mission in 1997, which would indicate the waters of the eastern Pacific have as much heat content as 18 years ago. In addition, trade winds across the eastern tropical Pacific basin have also weakened. The July–September average of sea surface temperatures was 1.5 Celsius degrees above normal, ranking third behind the 1982 and 1997 El Niño events. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Current year's Antarctic maximum sea ice extent fails to maintain record high string -- A sea ice scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center recently noted that although the sea ice cover on the Southern Ocean reached its annual maximum extent around Antarctica for the 2015 winter season (Southern Hemisphere) on 6 October, this 7.27-million square mile extent of ice cover was below the record maximum coverage set during each of the previous three winters. Apparently a strong El Niño event that is currently underway has contributed to the smaller extent of sea ice on the Southern Ocean this winter. In addition, this year's maximum extent was late, as the mean date of the Antarctic maximum over the 30-year span of 1981-2010 is 23 September. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Features]

CLIMATE MONITORING

Severe weather climatology maps available for the nation -- An overview is provided of the maps produced by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center that display the distribution of tornadoes, strong thunderstorm winds (in excess of 58 mph) and large hail (of at least three-quarters of an inch diameter) across the nation on a daily basis. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Watershed for Chesapeake Bay view from space -- A high resolution natural color image of sections of the Middle Atlantic States that include the entire watershed for Chesapeake Bay has been produced from 40 separate images obtained from data collected by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on NASA's Landsat 8 satellite. The mosaic image with 30-meter resolution should permit researchers to detect and track natural or human-caused changes in the landscape surrounding the nation's largest estuary through time. [NOAA News]

CLIMATE FORCING

Spacecraft observes hefty solar prominence eruption -- NASA's orbiting Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) space craft monitored a mass of solar material that erupted from the Sun's surface and produced a large prominence above the surface during a 10-hour span on Tuesday, 13 October 2015. An 11-second video of this solar prominence eruption was assembled from a series of images made by sensors in the extreme ultraviolet portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

New Winter season Climate Outlooks issued -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their US Winter Climate Outlooks for the nation covering meteorological winter (in the Northern Hemisphere) that includes the three months of November, December and February. They foresee a good chance for cooler weather across sections of the southern tier of states, running from southern New Mexico eastward to Florida and the Southeastern Atlantic coast. In addition, most of the southern tier of states appeared to have a good chance of having above average precipitation during this coming winter of 2015-16. On the other hand, above average winter temperatures along with below average precipitation would be likely across many of the northern tier of states, running from Washington and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. These outlooks were based upon the current strong El Niño that was expected to continue impacting the weather across the nation through at least the end of the year. [NOAA News]
Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-October 2015 through January 2016. Their outlook would call for the persistence or expansion of extensive drought conditions across the northwestern quadrant of the nation, running southward from the Pacific Northwest into northern sections of California and Nevada and eastward to North Dakota. Scattered areas across the Midwest could also experience development of drought conditions. On the other hand, sections of the Southwest, running from southern California into Arizona and southern Utah could see improvement in drought conditions, with some areas possibly being removed from drought status. Sections of the Gulf Coast States and New England could also see improvement or elimination of drought conditions by the beginning of the new year. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

This year's damage by global coral bleaching events revealed by survey photographs - Earlier this month NOAA officials announced that a global coral bleaching event was currently underway, with the bleaching a large percentage of the world's coral reefs due to heat stress caused by higher than normal ocean temperatures. This year's event represents only the third-ever worldwide bleaching event in recorded history, following devastating events in 2010 and 1998. Ocean scientists and community-based monitoring teams at NOAA, the global science and communication project called XL Catlin Seaview Survey, Australia's University of Queensland and the non-profit Reef Check organization have been collecting photographs and videos that are intended to verify that bleaching is occurring around the world. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Maps provide graphical evidence of ocean acidification -- A team of scientists from NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA's Ocean Acidification Program, the University of Maryland and the University of Washington has produced maps displaying the global distribution of aragonite saturation in surface and surface waters, showing areas that are most vulnerable to ocean acidification. (Aragonite is a calcium carbonate mineral that shellfish use to build their shells.) These maps identify the Arctic and Antarctic oceans, and the upwelling ocean waters off the west coasts of North America, South America and Africa as regions that are especially vulnerable to ocean acidification. [NOAA NCEI News]
Coastal redwoods could shift due to changing climate -- Researchers at the University of California and the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) warn that changes in climate could cause the distribution of coast redwood trees along the California coast to shift northward by 70 to 200 km, with those groves of trees currently located south of San Francisco disappearing within a decade. They based their findings upon analysis of historic climate data in order to make more accurate ecological predictions possible from global climate models. [German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) News]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Atmospheric features on Jupiter seen to change over time -- Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center have assembled images of Jupiter obtained from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope on an annual basis as part of the Outer Planet Atmospheres Legacy program and have found that the Great Red Spot on Jupiter has been shrinking in size and becoming more circular in shape. In addition, this spinning vortex feature in the Jovian atmosphere likened to a hurricane on Earth, has become more orange in color. An unusual wispy filament has been seen, spanning almost the entire width of the vortex. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center News]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Seawater Salinity and Carbon Dioxide

The contemporary concern regarding global climate change has caused scientists to study the various factors that govern the ocean's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, are on the rise primarily because of increased burning of fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be contributing to increased global temperatures, a condition often identified as global warming. The ocean's role in regulating the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the temperature, salinity, and biological components of surface waters.

Studies show that the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide is primarily temperature dependent. As noted in Chapter 8 of your textbook, gases are more soluble in cold seawater than warm seawater. Hence, changes in sea surface temperature affect the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide. We also found in Chapter 1, photosynthetic organisms assimilate carbon dioxide and release oxygen. Through cellular respiration, all organisms release carbon dioxide. Therefore, biological activity affects the ocean's ability to absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

What about the effects of changes in salinity on the ocean's uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Research from the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii provides some insight on this question. For nearly 20 years, scientists have been collecting physical, chemical and biological data through a large column of ocean water at Station ALOHA, a sampling site about 100 km (62 mi) north of Oahu that appears representative of oceanic conditions in the central North Pacific. In 2003, David M. Karl, a biogeochemist at the University of Hawaii in Honolulu, reported a decline in the rate at which surface ocean waters were absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In 2001, the rate of carbon dioxide uptake was only about 15% of the rate in 1989. Why the change in carbon dioxide uptake? In this region of the Pacific north of Hawaii, sea surface temperatures showed no significant change during the period of observation but precipitation decreased and evaporation increased. Less precipitation associated with drought coupled with higher rates of evaporation caused the surface water salinity at ALOHA to increase by about 1%. Increasing salinity inhibits water's ability to absorb gases including carbon dioxide. Karl and his colleagues attribute 40% of the decline in the ocean's carbon dioxide uptake to the saltier waters. The balance of the decline may be due to changes in biological productivity or ocean mixing.

Projected changes in global climate indicate significant changes in precipitation around the globe including reduced precipitation over various large areas of the oceans, resulting in potential "drought" conditions. Since changes in oceanic salinity result from changes in precipitation, the contribution that salinity plays on future assimilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the ocean also becomes an important consideration.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

With rising sea surface temperatures, the rate of evaporation of seawater [(increases), (decreases)].
With increasing salinity and constant temperature, the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is taken up by ocean water [(increases), (decreases)].

Historical Events:

20 October 2004...Rain at two stations in Nevada broke the state's previous 24-hour maximum precipitation record of 7.13 inches set previously at Mt. Rose Highway Station (31 January 1963). The new state record of 9.78 inches was established at Mt. Charleston, while Kyle Canyon also broke the old record with 8.75 inches. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
21 October 1996...Portland, ME received 13.32 inches of rain to set a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the Pine Tree State. (NCDC)
22 October 1987...Yakutat, AK surpassed their previous all-time yearly precipitation total of 190 inches. Monthly records were set in June with 17 inches, in September with 70 inches, and in October with more than 40 inches. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
24 October 1951...Sacramento, CA reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record low for October. (The Weather Channel)
25 October 1977...Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)
26 October 1859...New York City had their earliest substantial snow of record as four inches blanketed the city. (David Ludlum)
26 October 1919...The temperature at Bismarck, ND plunged to ten degrees below zero, the earliest subzero reading of record for the city, and a record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)
26 October 1926...Barrow, AK received a record fifteen inches of snow, and also established a 24-hour precipitation record of 1.00 inch, which lasted until the 21st of July in 1987. (The Weather Channel)
26 October 1993...The temperature at Eureka, CA soared to 87 degrees to set an all-time high temperature record for the city. (Intellicast)

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