WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK ELEVEN: 16-20 November 2015

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Teachers invited to join the 2016 NOAA Climate Stewards Stewardship Community -- Educators across the United States working with elementary through university-age students are invited to learn more about climate change and climate resilience by applying to become part of the 2016 NOAA Climate Stewards Education Project (CSEP) Stewardship Community. Selected educators who meet project requirements will be eligible for: • Mini-grants up to $2000 to support a climate stewardship action project; • Travel reimbursements to attend select workshops and/or national conferences; • Special professional development opportunities; • Additional monetary and educational resources. Applications are due by midnight PST, Sunday 22 November 2015. To learn more, go to the NOAA Climate Stewards Education Project Web Site
A Long Polar Night -- After being above the horizon for only 6 minutes this Thursday, the sun set at 1:15 PM Alaska Standard Time (19 November 2015) at Barrow, the northernmost city in Alaska, for the last time this year. The next time the sun will rise above the local horizon in Barrow will be at 1:10 PM AST on 23 January 2016. On that date, the sun will remain above the horizon for 59 minutes. While the sun will be below the horizon for the next 65 days, residents of this city will have roughly three hours of some diffuse sunlight each day that is equivalent to civil twilight, provided the cloud cover is not too thick. To check the sunrise and sunset times of Barrow or any location in the United States go to the US Naval Observatory's on-line, interactive service for the entire year.
Watching a meteor shower -- This year's Leonid meteor showers should peak during the predawn hours of this coming Tuesday night and Wednesday morning (17-18 November 2015). The Leonid meteor showers, which appear to emanate from the constellation Leo, occur in November as Earth passes through the debris trail from Comet Tempel-Tuttle. As many as 15 meteors per hour are expected this year. Fortunately, the moon should not interfere greatly with viewing conditions, even where city lights and clouds do not block the sky. The shower's radiant, or originating point, will be in the eastern sky after sunset and then will shift to the west after local midnight. [Astronomy]
Celebrate Geography Awareness Week and GIS Day -- This upcoming week (15-21 November 2015) has been identified as Geography Awareness Week. National Geography Awareness Week, launched by presidential proclamation in 1987, is designed to draw attention to geo-literacy and "the importance of geographic understanding in ensuring our nation's economic competitiveness, national security, environmental sustainability, and the livability of our communities in the 21st century." Since the National Geographic Society is celebrating 100 years of cartographic history, this year's Geography Awareness Week theme is "Explore! The Power of Maps."
In conjunction with Geography Awareness Week, this coming Wednesday (18 November 2015) has been designated GIS Day that commenced in 1999 "provides an international forum for users of geographic information systems (GIS) technology to demonstrate real-world applications that are making a difference in our society." This year's theme "Discovering the World Through GIS." [ GIS Day]
Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2015 Campaign continues -- The eleventh in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2015 will continue with a 10-night campaign running through 21 November. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Perseus in the Northern Hemisphere and Grus in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. This campaign will resume next month between 2 December and 11 December 2015. [GLOBE at Night]
Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of October 2015 weather and climate across the US -- Preliminary data for October 2015 from across the nation have led scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) to report that the average temperature averaged across the 48 contiguous United States for this past month was approximately 3.3 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) long term average, making this recently concluded month the fourth warmest October since a comprehensive national climate network began in 1895. Although the average maximum (or daytime) October temperature across the "Lower 48" for 2015 was 15th highest on record for the month, the average minimum (or nighttime) October 2015 temperature was the second highest on record. With the exception of the 19 states along the Atlantic Seaboard, the Appalachians and the Ohio Valley, the remaining 29 states across the Midwest, Deep South and West experienced above or much above statewide average October temperatures. Furthermore, all 13 states from the Rockies westward to the Pacific Coast, including Texas, had statewide temperatures that were within the ten highest October temperatures during the last 121 years. Washington experienced its highest monthly October average temperature on record, 0.5 Fahrenheit degrees higher than the previous record set in October 1988. Maine was the only state to have reported a below average statewide average October temperature.
Preliminary precipitation records for October 2015 indicate that the month was 0/59 inches above the 20th century average, placing the month as the 20th wettest of the 121-year record. Relatively wet conditions were found across the southern tier of states, running from Nevada and Arizona in the West to the Carolinas in the East. South Carolina had its second wettest October on record in 2015, while North Carolina, Texas and Nevada had statewide October precipitation totals that ranked them in the top ten wettest Octobers on record. On the other hand, Florida and states in the Ohio Valley (Illinois, Missouri) and the Northwest (Oregon) were the only states that experienced drier than average monthly statewide precipitation levels. The remainder of the states had monthly statewide October precipitation totals that were close to the 20th century averages. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
October drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its October 2015 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately 14 percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of October, while nine percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Changes seen in effect of La Niña upon Hawaiian rainfall and groundwater -- In a joint study by the University of Hawaii, China's Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology and the Honolulu Office of NOAA's National Weather Service, scientists have found that the Aloha State has been receiving less-than-normal precipitation during recent La Niña events. At one time the Hawaiian Islands used to receive above average rainfall during La Niña events, while drought was limited to El Niño events. The researchers found that the relationship between La Niña and rainfall in Hawaii changed in 1983 when changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns occurred. [University of Hawaii News]

CLIMATE FORCING

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations reach record levels in 2014 -- The World Meteorological Organization recently released its "WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin" describing the state of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based upon global observations in 2014. This bulletin reported that a 36 percent increase in radiative forcing occurred between 1990 and 2014, which represented a warming effect on the planetary climate, because of the record levels of long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide from industrial, agricultural and domestic activities. The report also highlighted the interaction and amplification effect between rising levels of carbon dioxide and water vapor, a major, but short-lived-greenhouse gas.[World Meteorological Organization Media Centre] [Editor's Note: Special thanks go to Dr. James Brey, Director of the AMS Education Program for forwarding this link. EJH]
Hazier skies could occur with warming due to greenhouse gas emissions-- Scientists at the University of California Riverside warn that a warming climate associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions could result in an increase in aerosols and more hazy days because the changing climate would lead to a reduction in rain events that would cleanse the air. The research used state-of-the-art computer models. [University of California, Riverside Today]
Replacement hydrofluorocarbons are less damaging to protective ozone layer but are strong greenhouse gases -- Researchers at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory and colleagues in the US and the Netherlands recently reported that the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) gases used to replace ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used in manufacturing, refrigerators and air conditioners appear to be strong greenhouse gases. While the HFCs appear to be less damaging to the Earth's protective ozone layer in the stratosphere, their increasing use poses an increased risk of higher global temperatures. [NOAA Office of Research News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion & El Niño advisory outlook updates released -- Late last week forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) that showed a strong El Niño event continued as sea surface temperatures (SST) were above average across the central and eastern tropical Pacific during October 2015. SST values ranged from between two to three Celsius degrees above normal from the central into the eastern equatorial Pacific [NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory]. Consequently, the CPC forecasters released their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion in which they still maintained their El Niño advisory, as they envision the current El Niño event would likely peak during this upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter (December through February), followed by a transition to an anticipated ENSO-neutral condition during the late boreal spring or early summer of 2016. A description of the forecasters' reasoning for the slightly reduced probability levels is provided. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
An ENSO blog written by CPC staff suggests that this current El Niño event is one of the strongest since 1950 as SST values for the three months of August through October 2015 were the second highest on record. These forecasters expect this El Niño event to peak during winter 2015-16 (in the Northern Hemisphere). The blog also accompanying graphics showing how the near-surface and upper tropospheric winds across the Pacific basin in October and early November compare with 30-year averages. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Water supply for many nations could be cut by declining snowpacks -- In a study conducted by a team of scientists from Columbia University and other institutions, as many as 97 snow-dependent drainage basins across the Northern Hemisphere currently serving two billion people have been identified as running the risk of declining snowpacks that furnish the water supplies during the coming century due to projected increases in global temperatures. Furthermore, 32 of these identified basins most sensitive to changes in snowpack included large parts of the American West, southern Europe, the Mideast and central Asia. In some areas, higher temperatures would mean winter precipitation would fall as rain rather than snow, while in the higher mountains, the snow would melt earlier in the season. The new study estimated the potential for the snowpacks to supply present human needs in both current and projected climates, taking both weather trends and population into account. [The Earth Science Institute/Columbia University News]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Tree rings used to construct an Old World drought atlas that maps 2000 years of climate in Europe -- Researchers at the Tree Ring Lab at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory have assembled the "Old World Drought Atlas" that represents the expanse and severity of dry and wet periods across Europe along with adjoining areas of North Africa and the Middle East on a year-by-year basis over the last 2000 years based upon their analysis of tree rings. This new atlas complements earlier atlases that the team constructed for North America and Asia. Consequently, these atlases provide a historic picture of the long-term climate variability over a significant portion of the continental areas in Northern Hemisphere. [The Earth Science Institute/Columbia University]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

New "Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources" announced -- Late last week an award will recognize outstanding efforts an interagency group of federal, state, and tribal agencies that included NOAA and the US Departments of Interior and Agriculture announced that a new award would be given to individuals or groups in recognition of their outstanding efforts to increase awareness and safeguard the nation's natural resources from the negative effects of climate change. This "Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources" is part of the President's Climate Action Plan and the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy. Individuals or groups can be nominated for this through the first week of January 2016. [NOAA News]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Exposure to air pollution that would include a variety of gas species and particulate matter could result in health-related problems, especially those people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in climate could increase air pollutant exposure in several ways. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in heat waves are often stagnant, which reduce dispersion and create environmental conditions for photochemical reactions that increases ground-level ozone concentrations. Increased ozone has been shown to cause reduction in lung function. These heat waves associated with stagnant weather patterns would also increase fuel combustion for power generation needed for air conditioning. Changes in climate could also affect emissions of natural air pollutants and airborne allergens.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

While a range of negative health impacts would be possible from future climate change, adaptation would likely help protect the majority of the nation's population. This adaptation would entail maintenance of the public health and community infrastructure across the nation. Adequate water treatment systems would help curb waterborne diseases, while health care facilities and emergency shelters would help minimize the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

17 November 1953...The temperature at Minneapolis, MN reached 71 degrees, their warmest reading of record for so late in the autumn. (The Weather Channel)
18 November 1955...An early season cold snap finally came to an end. Helena, MT experienced 138 consecutive hours of subzero temperatures, including a reading of 29 below zero, which surpassed by seven degrees their previous record for the month of November. Missoula, MT broke their November record by 12 degrees with a reading of 23 below zero, and Salt Lake City, UT smashed their previous November record of zero degrees with a reading of 14 degrees below zero. Heavy snow in the Great Basin closed Donner Pass, CA and total crop damage from the cold wave amounted to eleven million dollars. (David Ludlum)
19 November 1957...Nineteen inches of snow covered the ground at Cresco, IA, a record November snow depth for the state. (The Weather Channel)
19 November 1996...A 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the state of Oregon was established when 11.65 in. of rain fell at Port Orford. (NCDC)
19 November 2009...Adelaide, Australia reported a temperature reading of 109 degrees, which set an all-time record high for the month of November, Elliston had a 111-degree reading, which was its all-time record for any day. The month of November 2009 was the warmest November on record for Australia. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
20 November 1914...The high temperature of 28 degrees at Atlanta, GA was their earliest daily high below the freezing mark. (The Weather Channel)
20 November 1979...A blizzard struck Cheyenne, WY producing a record 19.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a record total of 25.6 inches in forty hours. Strong winds created huge drifts stopping all transportation. (19^th-21^st) (The Weather Channel)

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