WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

Thanksgiving Week: 23-27 November 2015

This is Thanksgiving Break for the Fall 2015 offering of the DataStreme Earth Climate Systems course. This Weekly Climate News contains new information items and historical data, but the Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 11.

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving Week from the AMS DS ECS Central Staff and Ed Hopkins!

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of October 2015 global temperatures and sea ice cover -- Preliminary data analyzed by scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) indicated that the global combined land and ocean average surface temperature for the October 2015 was 1.76 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average (1901-2000) for the month. Therefore, last month's global combined temperature not only was the record highest October temperature since global temperature records began in 1880, but also represented the greatest temperature departure from average for any month in 1630 months of record keeping. When considered separately, the monthly average temperature over the global oceans for October 2015 was 1.53 Fahrenheit degrees above average, the highest October ocean temperature departure, as well as being the greatest monthly departure for any month in in 136 years. The monthly average temperature of the land surface for this recently concluded month was 2.39 Fahrenheit degrees above average, which also represented the highest October land surface temperature departure on record. The record high global sea surface temperature was due in part to major El Niño event, a periodic large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Furthermore, when considering the combined land-ocean global temperature for the year to date (January-October 2015), the temperature was the highest ten-month global temperature since 1880. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
A global map of Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for October 2015 is available from NCEI.
According to satellite data collected by National Snow and Ice Data Center, the sea ice over the Arctic Ocean during October 2015 had the sixth smallest areal extent for any October since satellite-derived ice records began in 1979. On the other hand, the sea ice around Antarctica was the fourteenth largest October ice extent in the last 37 years. Globally, the sea ice extents in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere was the fifth smallest October global sea ice extent on record. [NOAA/NCEI Global Snow & Ice]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Regional El Niño Impacts and Outlooks Assessments released -- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and its partners have produced 2-page pdf documents nine regions around the six of seven regions across the 48 contiguous United States along with Alaska, Hawaii and the Pacific Islands that are intended to help the public and decision makers understand how the current strong El Niño may impact the regions where they live. [NOAA NCEI News]
Comparisons and contrasts drawn between 2015 and 1997 El Niño events -- Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory recently made comparisons between this year's major El Niño event and one of the other major El Niño events that occurred in 1997 and early 1998 using sea surface topography data collected from NASA satellites that included the NASA/CNES Topex/Poseidon mission in 1997-98 and from the current NASA/CNES/NOAA/EUMETSAT Jason-2 mission. While certain similarities between the two events are readily apparent, difference between the two are also evident, especially involving the location of the pool of warm water that has remained along the central equatorial Pacific for the last 18 months. These differences in the location of the pools of warm water indicate dissimilarities in the large scale impacts of individual El Niño events. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Average to above average Great Lakes water levels foreseen during next 6 months -- Late last week scientists from NOAA, the US Army Corps of Engineers and Environment Canada issued a six-month forecast for water levels to be at or above average on Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, and Erie running into to spring 2016. However, they felt that Lake Ontario water levels would remain close to monthly averages. Although lake levels on nearly all the Great Lakes have been above average as of late fall, the impacts associated with the anticipated strong El Niño that should persist through much of meteorological winter and other atmospheric anomalies on the forecast are difficult to predict. A briefing is available on the forecast. [NOAA Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research News]
Official updated winter weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their updated Three-Month Seasonal Outlook for meteorological winter (the three months of December 2015 through February 2016) across the nation. Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, the West Coast States along with the northern tier of states running from the Pacific Northwest to the New England should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for these three upcoming months. The greatest probability of such an occurrence to be found across Oregon, Washington and northern Idaho in the Northwest and across Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and northern sections of Michigan. Conversely, the southern Plains, primarily across southern Texas, were considered to have a better that average chance of below average winter temperatures. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the nation would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions. These regions would extend from the Southwest across the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeastern States.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for sections of the northern Rockies and adjacent high Plains in Montana along with the region around the Great Lakes centered upon Michigan and sections of adjacent states have a better than even chance of below average precipitation for meteorological winter 2015-16. On the other hand, the southern tier of states extending from southern California to the Florida Peninsula and the Atlantic Seaboard from Florida to the Middle Atlantic States would have better than even chances of above average precipitation totals for these three months. Elsewhere, a narrow section of the coterminous states running from the Pacific Coast to the northern New England should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for this upcoming winter.
  A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that assuming that the current ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation), with neither prevailing El Niño nor La Niña conditions, should change to a weak El Niño event within the next several weeks. A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
  NOTE These outlooks can be compared with the public winter outlooks that CPC released in mid-October 2015.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-November 2015 through February 2016. Their outlook would call for persistence of extensive drought conditions across the interior Northwest and the Great Basin that includes Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and sections of Nevada. In addition, widely scattered sections of the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest should continue to experience drought conditions. However, most of California, southern Nevada and central Utah could see some improvement of their drought conditions. Some areas across the interior Southwest and widely scattered areas across the southern Plains, the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and New England could possibly be removed from drought status. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

This Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 11.

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Exposure to air pollution that would include a variety of gas species and particulate matter could result in health-related problems, especially those people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in climate could increase air pollutant exposure in several ways. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in heat waves are often stagnant, which reduce dispersion and create environmental conditions for photochemical reactions that increases ground-level ozone concentrations. Increased ozone has been shown to cause reduction in lung function. These heat waves associated with stagnant weather patterns would also increase fuel combustion for power generation needed for air conditioning. Changes in climate could also affect emissions of natural air pollutants and airborne allergens.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

While a range of negative health impacts would be possible from future climate change, adaptation would likely help protect the majority of the nation's population. This adaptation would entail maintenance of the public health and community infrastructure across the nation. Adequate water treatment systems would help curb waterborne diseases, while health care facilities and emergency shelters would help minimize the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

23 November 1909...Rattlesnake Creek was deluged with 7.17 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state of Idaho. (The Weather Channel)
23 November 1943...Northern New Hampshire was in the grips of a record snowstorm that left a total of 55 inches at Berlin, 56 inches at Randolph and many other locations over 40 inches. The 56-inch total at Randolph in Coos County established a 24-hour snowfall record for the state. In Maine, Middle Dam received a record 35 inches of snow in 24 hours. (David Ludlum)
23 November 1974...Bismarck, ND was in the middle of a 5-day snowstorm during which 28.3 inches fell, the greatest on record. (Intellicast)
23 November 1983...A 24-hour snowfall record for Duluth, MN was broken with 16.9 inches. 19.7 inches fell during the entire storm, also a record.
23 November 1991...La Crosse, WI set a new record for 24-hour snowfall with 13 inches. This storm brought the monthly total to 28.2 inches, also a record. (Intellicast)
24 November 1950...The temperature at Chicago, IL dipped to 2 degrees below zero to equal their record for the month established on the 29^th in 1872. On the first of the month that year, Chicago established a record high for November with a reading of 81 degrees. (The Weather Channel)
26 November 1896...Snow and high winds hit the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley, with a Thanksgiving Day blizzard across North Dakota. The storm was followed by a severe cold wave in the Upper Midwest. The temperature at Pokegama Dam plunged to 45 degrees below zero, which remains the lowest recorded November temperature in Minnesota. (David Ludlum)
29 November 1975...Red River was buried under 34 inches of snow in 24 hours, establishing a record for the state of New Mexico. (The Weather Channel)
29 November 1985...The temperature at Bismarck, ND plunged to 30 degrees below zero to establish their record low for the month of November. The high that day was 4 degrees below zero. (The Weather Channel)
29 November 1989...Sault Ste Marie, MI finished the month of November with a record 46.8 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
30 November 1976...MacLeod Harbor, AK reported a precipitation total for November of 70.99 inches, which established a state record for any month of the year. (The National Weather Summary)
30 November 1991...Minneapolis, MN ended the month with 46.9 inches of snow, the most ever for November and for any month. Although the official start of winter was still 3 weeks away, the city had already surpassed the normal seasonal snowfall record with 55.1 inches since 1 October (normal for the entire winter is 49.2 inches). (Intellicast)

Return to DataStreme ECS RealTime Climate Portal