WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

21-25 December 2015

DataStreme Earth's Climate Systems will return for Spring 2016 with new Investigations files starting during Preview Week, Monday, 18 January 2016. All the current online website products, including updated issues of Weekly Climate News, will continue to be available throughout the winter break period.

Happy Holidays to you and yours from the AMS DS Earth's Climate Systems Central Staff!

Ed Hopkins

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Happy Winter Solstice! The winter solstice will occur this Monday night (officially, at 0448 Z on 22 December 2015, or 11:48 PM EST, 10:48 PM CST, etc. on the 21st). At that time, the earth's spin axis will be oriented such that the sun appears to be the farthest south in the local sky of most earth-bound observers. While most of us consider this event to be the start of astronomical winter, the British call that day the "Midwinter Day", as the apparent sun will begin its northward climb again. For essentially all locations in the Northern Hemisphere, the night will be the longest and the daylight on the following day will be the shortest of the year. Starting Tuesday night, the length of darkness will begin to shrink as we head toward the summer solstice on 20 June 2016 at 2234Z.
Dreaming of a White Christmas -- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), formerly National Climatic Data Center, produced a national map showing the climatological probability (in percent) that a snow depth of at least one inch would be observed on the morning of 25 December based upon the 1981-2010 standard 30-year climatological reference interval. This map shows the ratio of the number of times that a particular station experienced a white Christmas during the interval as a probability. For example, Des Moines, IA had only 12 Christmases between 1981 and 2010 when an inch or more snow cover was observed, so the probability that residents of Iowa's capital city would have a white Christmas is 40%. Some locations across the nation are almost certain to have a white Christmas, generally along the Canadian border surrounding the Great Lakes, such as Marquette, MI (with 96%) and in New England, such as at Caribou, ME (87%). Stations at higher elevations in the Rockies also have a higher probability, such as at Flagstaff, AZ with a 65%. Sites close to the oceans typically have a lower probability, as the oceans tend to be relatively warm at this time of year. Santa typically finds tough sledding on his journey to that half of the country south of latitude 40 degrees that is not mountainous, where chances of a white Christmas fall from 50% to 20% or less. You can monitor the current snow cover across North America using a snow chart that is based upon satellite data.
Environment Canada has also produced a tabulation of the Chances of a White Christmas for 43 major population centers across Canada based on data collected between 1955 and 2013.
Climatology of Southeast NCAA bowl games updated -- The Southeast Regional Climate Center has provided a listing of the weather history for fifteen NCAA college football bowl games that are to be played within the next two weeks across the Southeastern States. This climatology includes the warmest, coldest, wettest and snowiest days in the particular bowl's history.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of November and autumn 2015 weather and climate across the US -- Preliminary monthly temperature data for November 2015 from across the nation have led scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information to report that the November temperature across the coterminous United States was 3.0 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century (1901-2000) average, making last month the 13th warmest November since a sufficiently dense national climate observing network was established in 1895. In addition, the average maximum (or daytime) November temperature for 2015 was 20th highest on record for the month, while the average minimum (or nighttime) November 2015 temperature was the eighth highest on record. Essentially all states to the east of the Rocky Mountains had statewide November average temperatures that were above or much above the 20th-century average. New Jersey experienced its warmest November in 121 years, while the statewide temperatures in Connecticut, Delaware and Florida were second highest. Essentially all states east of the Mississippi River had statewide temperatures that rank in the top 10 highest temperatures on record. On the other hand, below average temperatures were confined to the western third of the nation, with Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Utah reporting below average November statewide temperatures.
Furthermore, the temperature across the 48 coterminous states for meteorological autumn (September-November) was 3.3 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century averages, making this year's autumn the warmest across "the lower 48" since 1895. All states, including Alaska, reported autumn statewide temperatures that were above to much above average. At least three dozen states had autumn temperatures that ranked within the top ten for the 121-year period of record, led by Florida that had their highest autumn statewide temperature since 1895.
The nationwide precipitation total for November 2015 across the country was 1.07 inches above the 20th century average, placing this past month as the fourth wettest November since 1895.
Many states across the Plains, the Mississippi Valley and the Southeast had much above average statewide November precipitation. Arkansas and Missouri reported record high November precipitation totals, while North Carolina and Oklahoma had their second highest levels in 121 years. On the other hand, many of the Northeastern States had below to much below average November precipitation totals. Vermont had its ninth lowest precipitation, followed by New York State with its twelfth lowest November precipitation total.
The national precipitation total for autumn 2015 was 1.44 inches above the 20th-century precipitation average, which corresponded to the 15th wettest September-November season in 121 years. Several states along the West Coast and in New England had below average autumnal precipitation, while many states scattered across the Great Basin, the southern Plains and the Southeast had much above average autumn precipitation. South Carolina reported its wettest autumn on record, followed by North Carolina by its second wettest autumn.
The Rutgers Global Snow Lab reported that the November snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was the 19th largest November snow cover extent in the 50-year satellite record. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCDC for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCDC]
November national drought report -- The National Centers for Environmental Information has posted its November 2015 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately nine percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of November, while 21 percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
A global review of November 2015 temperatures -- Preliminary analysis of temperature data by scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) indicates that the worldwide combined ocean and land surface temperature for November 2015 was the highest global November surface temperature since a sufficiently dense and reliable network began in 1880. This combined global temperature was approximately 1.75 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) average November temperature. They also found that the global ocean surface temperature was the highest for any November since 1880, while the global land surface temperature was the fifth highest temperature reading for any November on record. Furthermore, they reported that the combined land and ocean surface temperature for the globe was the second highest temperature for any month in the 136-year period of record, slightly less than the all-time monthly temperature record set the previous month (October 2015). The record warm ocean waters in the tropics is due to the strong El Niño event that is currently underway. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
A global map of Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for November 2015 is available from NCDC.
According to satellite data collected by National Snow and Ice Data Center, the sea ice over the Arctic Ocean during November 2015 had the sixth smallest areal extent for any November since satellite-derived ice records began in 1979. However, the sea ice around Antarctica was the 14th largest November ice extent on record. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was the seventh largest November snow cover in the 50-year period of record that began in 1966. [NOAA/NCEI Global Snow & Ice]
Annual Arctic Report Card released -- Last week, NOAA's Climate Program Office released its tenth annual update of the "Arctic Report Card" for 2015, a peer-reviewed report of the state of the air, ocean and ice in the Arctic basin prepared by an international team of 70 experts from 11 countries, including those from NOAA. These experts have found air and water temperatures across the Arctic continued to increase at a rate double that of other areas around the globe. Arctic air temperatures between October 2014 and September 2015 were more than two Fahrenheit degrees above average, which represents the highest since records began across the basin in 1900. Sea surface temperatures in some areas of the Arctic Ocean, such as the Chukchi Sea off Alaska and the eastern Baffin Bay off Greenland were increasing at approximately one Fahrenheit degree per decade. The team also found that along with increasing air and sea surface temperatures, decreases were occurring in the sea ice extent and the mass of the Greenland ice sheet. In addition, changing behavior of fish and walrus were also noted. The general health and numbers of polar bear populations were also observed to decline. [NOAA News] More detailed information along with four-minute video is available on this report. [Arctic Report Card]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

New coastal mapping tool helps gauge potential for coastal inundation in Hawaii due to sea level rise -- An online sea-level rise inundation mapping tool has been developed by the University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program to serve as a decision-support tool for local planners and decision-makers that shows the effect of sea-level rise on the coastal inundation zones (hurricane and tsunami) on Oahu, primarily along the beaches of Honolulu. For a three-foot rise in sea level, this tool showed that 80 percent of the area's economy, nearly half of its population and much of the infrastructure and land would be at risk of coastal inundation. [NOAA Sea Grant News]

CLIMATE FORCING

"Living shorelines" can lesson effects of climate change -- In a recently released study, scientists with NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science have shown that the "living shorelines" constructed from natural materials such as salt marsh plants, sand and rock not only protect and stabilize shorelines, but can also store carbon that otherwise would enter the atmosphere, promote coastal resilience and improve water quality and fish habitats. These measures would serve to blunt the effects of a changing climate. [NOAA News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Seasonal weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their new national Seasonal Outlook for the first three months of 2016 (January-March) that includes the last two months of meteorological winter and the first month of meteorological spring. Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, the northern half of the nation along with the West Coast was considered to have a better than average chance of having above average temperatures during the upcoming three months. The greatest probability of occurrence was to be expected in the Pacific Northwest (Washington and Oregon) and across sections of the Upper Midwest, especially around Lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron. On the other hand, a large section of the southern tier of states should experience a high chance of below average late winter-early spring temperatures. The greatest probability of such an occurrence would be found extending eastward from west Texas to the central Gulf Coast. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the nation, primarily across the Great Basin eastward to the coast of the Carolinas would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for sections of the Southwest and the Southeast to have a better than even chance of above average precipitation for the first three months of 2016. In the Southwest, the regions that would have the largest chances of above average precipitation would extend from coastal sections of California across Arizona and New Mexico to Texas. In the Southeast, wetter than average conditions were likely across the Florida Peninsula and along the Atlantic Coast northward to the Carolinas. Conversely, areas of the northern interior Northwest, the northern Rockies and adjacent high Plains should have a better than even chance of below average precipitation running from January through March. Likewise, much of the Midwest appears to have a good chance for below average precipitation. Elsewhere, a few sections of the coterminous states should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for the end of winter and the start of spring.
  A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that the current strong El Niño event should peak soon during the Northern Hemisphere's meteorological winter (December-February), and then change to ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation) during the late spring or early summer 2016, when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions would prevail.
  A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-December 2015 through March 2016. Their outlook would call for persistence of extensive drought conditions across sections of the interior Northwest, extending from central Washington state northern Rockies into the high Plains of Montana. Other areas of the West, running across California, Oregon and the Great Basin (Nevada and Utah) could see some improvement in drought conditions, while some of these areas in the Southwest could possibly could be removed from drought status. Scattered areas across the Midwest and in the Northeast that have been experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions could also be removed from drought consideration. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.
UK Met Office global average temperature forecast made for 2016 -- During the last week, scientists at the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office (Met Office) released their annual global temperature forecast for the upcoming year of 2016. They anticipate the global average temperature in 2016 to be 0.53 Celsius degrees above the long-term (1981-2010) average of 14.3 degrees Celsius, with a range of uncertainty extending from 0.41 to 0.65 Celsius degrees around the central estimate. Therefore, 2016 could be one of the warmest years since comprehensive global climate records began in 1880, possibly exceeding this current year's potentially record high. Using observational data running through October 2015, the scientists noted that this current year's global temperature has a central estimate of 0.72 Celsius degrees above the 1961-1990 average of 14.0 degrees Celsius. [Editor's note: The statistics involved with the global temperature record are from the three main global temperature datasets compiled by: The Met Office and University of East Anglia (HadCRUT4); NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NOAA NCDC) and NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA GISS). The Met Office still uses the 1961-1990 interval for long-term averages that is accepted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), rather than the 1981-2010 interval currently used by NCDC. EJH] [UK Met Office News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Report on climate change, global food security and nation's food system is released -- During the last week, the US Department of Agriculture released a 157-page report entitled "Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System," a peer-reviewed scientific assessment as part of the US Global Change Research Program that identifies climate change effects on global food security. [US Dept. of Agriculture Office of the Chief Economist Newsletter]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Historical Events:

21 December 1892...Portland, OR was buried under an all-time record 27.5 inches of snow. (21^st-24^th) (The Weather Channel)
21 December 1989...Forty cities in the north central U.S., including thirteen in Iowa, reported record low temperatures for the date. The high for the date of 16 degrees below zero at Sioux Falls, SD was December record for that location. (The National Weather Summary)
23 December 1955...The barometric pressure dipped to 28.97 inches (981 millibars) at Boise, ID, an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)
23 December 1983...The temperature plunged to 50 degrees below zero at Williston, ND to equal their all-time record. Minneapolis, MN reported an afternoon high of 17 degrees below zero, and that evening strong northerly winds produced wind chill readings of 100 degrees below zero in North Dakota. (The National Weather Summary)
24 December 1872...Extreme cold gripped the Upper Midwest on Christmas Eve. Downtown Chicago reported an all-time record low of 23 degrees below zero, which stood until January 1982, and Minneapolis, MN reached 38 degrees below zero. The afternoon high at Minneapolis was 17 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)
24 December 1963...Memphis, TN set its all-time record low temperature with 13 degrees below zero, two days after a heavy 14.3-inch snowstorm. (Intellicast)
24 December 1982...The "Blizzard of 1982" hit eastern Colorado. Denver recorded 23.6 inches of snow in 24 hours, setting a new 24-hour record. Winds of 60 mph whipped the snow into 4 to 8 foot drifts. Stapleton Airport was closed for 33 hours and most roads were impassable. (Intellicast)
24 December 1983...The barometric pressure reached 31.42 inches at Miles City, MT to establish a high barometric pressure record for the U.S. It was the coldest Christmas Eve of modern record. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and all-time record lows for December were reported at seventeen cities, including Chicago with a low of 25 degrees below zero, and Havre, MT with a reading of 50 below zero. Sioux Falls, SD stayed below zero for eight consecutive days. Great Falls, MT dropped to a frigid 42 degrees below zero. Dayton, OH reached 13 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
24 December 1989... Christmas Eve 1989 became one of the coldest on record. Fifty-seven cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV with a reading of 22 degrees below zero. Key West, FL equaled their record for December with a morning low of 44 degrees. Huntsville, AL hit one degree above zero. The high of just 45 degrees at Miami, FL was an all-time record for that location after a morning low of 33 degrees. It smashed their previous record for the date by twenty degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
25 December 1988...A massive winter storm made for a very white Christmas in the western U.S. Las Vegas, NV reported snow on the ground for the first time of record. Periods of snow over a five-day period left several feet of new snow on the ground of ski areas in Colorado, with 68 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
25 December 1989...It was a record cold Christmas Day for parts of the southeastern U.S. Morning lows of zero degrees at Wilmington, NC and five degrees below zero at Jacksonville, NC established all-time records for those two locations. Miami Beach, FL equaled a December record established the previous morning with a low of 33 degrees. Erie, PA set an all-time snowfall record for the month as light snow brought the total to 60.3 inches. Tallahassee, FL had a trace of snow, the first ever for Christmas Day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
26 December 1909...Philadelphia, PA had its record snow to that date with 21 inches. The Delaware state record was also broken with 24 inches. (Intellicast)
26 December 1947...New York City recorded its all-time record snow with 25.8 inches at the Battery and 26.8 inches at Central Park. A record 26.4 inches of snow fell in 24 hours, with as much as 32 inches reported in the suburbs. White Plains had 6 inches in one hour with 19 inches in just 6 hours. The heavy snow brought traffic to a standstill, and snow removal cost eight million dollars. Thirty thousand persons were called upon to remove the 100 million tons of snow. The storm claimed 27 lives. (26^th-27^th) (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
26 December 1983...Miami, FL established a December record with a morning low of 33 degrees. Just three days earlier, and again three days later, record high temperatures were reported in Florida, with daytime highs in the 80s. (The National Weather Summary)
26 December 1993...Bitterly cold air prevailed across the north central states. Sault Ste Marie, MI plunged to 31 degrees below zero to set a new December record. Tower, MN reached a frigid 50 degrees below zero. (Intellicast)
26 December 2004...A massive earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter magnitude scale approximately 100 miles off the western coast of Sumatra created a tsunami that caused devastation in Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, The Maldives and many other areas around the rim of the Indian Ocean. The death toll is currently estimated at more than 300,000. Officials say the true toll may never be known, due to rapid burials. Indonesia was worst affected with as many as 219,000 people killed. (Wikipedia)

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