WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

19-23 December 2016

DataStreme Earth's Climate Systems will return for Spring 2017 with new Investigations files starting during Preview Week, Monday, 23 January 2017. All the current online website products, including updated issues of Weekly Climate News, will continue to be available throughout the winter break period.

Happy Holidays to you and yours from the AMS DS Earth's Climate Systems Central Staff!

Ed Hopkins

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2016 Campaign resumes -- The thirteenth and last in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2016 will commence on Tuesday (20 December) and continue through Wednesday, 30 December. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Perseus in the Northern Hemisphere and Orion in the Southern Hemisphere) with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The next and first series in the 2017 campaign is scheduled for 19-28 January 2017. [GLOBE at Night]
Happy Winter Solstice! The winter solstice will occur this Wednesday morning (officially, at 1044 Z on 21 December 2016, or 5:48 AM EST, 4:48 AM CST, etc.). At that time, the earth's spin axis will be oriented such that the sun appears to be the farthest south in the local sky of most earth-bound observers. While most of us consider this event to be the start of astronomical winter, the British call that day the "Midwinter Day", as the apparent sun will begin its northward climb again. For essentially all locations in the Northern Hemisphere, Tuesday night will be the longest and the daylight on Wednesday will be the shortest of the year. Starting Wednesday night, the length of darkness will begin to shrink as we head toward the summer solstice on 21 June 2017 at 0424 Z.
Dreaming of a White Christmas -- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) produced an interactive national map showing the climatological probability (in percent) that a snow depth of at least one inch would be observed on the morning of 25 December based upon the 1981-2010 standard 30-year climatological reference interval. This map shows the ratio of the number of times that a particular station experienced a white Christmas during the interval as a probability. For example, Des Moines, IA had only 12 Christmases between 1981 and 2010 when an inch or more snow cover was observed, so the probability that residents of Iowa's capital city would have a white Christmas is 40%. Some locations across the nation are almost certain to have a white Christmas, generally along the Canadian border surrounding the Great Lakes, such as Marquette, MI (with 96%) and in New England, such as at Caribou, ME (87%). Stations at higher elevations in the Rockies also have a higher probability, such as at Flagstaff, AZ with a 65%. Sites close to the oceans typically have a lower probability, as the oceans tend to be relatively warm at this time of year. Santa typically finds tough sledding on his journey to that half of the country south of latitude 40 degrees that is not mountainous, where chances of a white Christmas fall from 50% to 20% or less. You can monitor the current snow cover across North America using a snow chart that is based upon satellite data.
Environment Canada has also produced a tabulation of the Chances of a White Christmas for 43 major population centers across Canada based on data collected between 1955 and 2013.
Interesting weather data for the college football fan -- With the start of the college football bowl games:
- The updated "Climatology of College Football" was posted in September 2015 by Alex Lamers, a football fan as well as a Program Coordination Officer and meteorologist with NOAA in Washington, DC, that describes and tabulates some of the extremes in the major college football conferences, focusing upon the coldest, warmest, driest and wettest college stadiums around the nation. He also has a "NCAA Football Conference Temperature Rankings." [Alex's Weather Notes]
- Climatology of Southeast NCAA bowl games updated -- The Southeast Regional Climate Center has provided a listing of the weather history for sixteen NCAA college football bowl games that are to be played within the next two weeks across the Southeastern States. This climatology includes the warmest, coldest, wettest and snowiest days in the particular bowl's history.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of November and autumn 2016 weather and climate across the US -- Preliminary monthly temperature data for November 2016 from across the coterminous United States have led scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) to report that the November average temperature across the coterminous United States was 6.3 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century (1901-2000) average, making last month the second warmest November since a sufficiently dense national climate observing network was established in 1895. In addition, the average maximum (or daytime) November temperature for 2016 was the second highest on record for the month, while the average minimum (or nighttime) November 2016 temperature was the record highest on record. Essentially all states from the Mississippi Valley westward to the West Coast had statewide temperatures that ranked within the top ten on record. North Dakota, Idaho and Washington experienced their highest November statewide temperatures in 122 years. In addition, Maine recorded its tenth warmest November. The remainder of the states along the Eastern Seaboard also experienced above average temperatures.
Furthermore, the average temperature across the 48 coterminous states for meteorological autumn (September-November) was 4.1 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century averages, making this year's autumn the warmest across "the lower 48" since 1895. Eight states (Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Texas and Wisconsin) reported record high autumn statewide average temperatures, while an additional 27 states had average autumn temperatures that were either second or third highest on record.
The nationwide precipitation total for November 2015 across the country was 0.50 inches below the 20th century average, placing this past month as the 25th driest November since 1895. More than two dozen states across the eastern half of the nation and in the northern Rockies had below to much below average precipitation totals during November. Florida experienced its driest November on record, while Georgia, the Carolinas, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Ohio had precipitation totals that ranked in the top 12. Several clusters of states in the northern Plains and across the Southwest had above average November precipitation readings, with New Mexico having a statewide average monthly precipitation total that was twelfth largest.
The national precipitation total for autumn 2016 ranked as the 57th smallest for the September-November season in 122 years. Several states in the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys along with Colorado had statewide autumn precipitation totals that ranked within the lowest eleven on record. On the other hand, Washington had its wettest November on record while Montana had its sixth highest precipitation total and Idaho its ninth. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
November national drought report -- The National Centers for Environmental Information has posted its November 2016 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately seven percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of November, while six percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
A refresher on the "polar vortex" -- The surge of arctic air across a large section of the nation during the last week has caused some people to refer to the "polar vortex," an oft-used term during the winter of 2013-2014 when a pool of cold air moved southward across the eastern half of North America. An explanation of the terminology associated with the polar vortex is provided. [NOAA Weather-Ready-Nation News]
Annual Arctic Report Card released -- Last week, NOAA's Climate Program Office released its eleventh annual update of the "Arctic Report Card" for 2016, a peer-reviewed report of the state of the air, ocean and ice in the Arctic basin prepared by an international team of 61 experts from 11 countries, including those from NOAA. These experts have found: i.) air temperatures across the land areas in the Arctic basin were the highest on record since 1900 and the rate of increase is double the rate of the temperature increase for the entire globe; ii.) spring snow cover in the North American Arctic was at a record lowest extent since satellite observations began in 1967; iii.) Greenland ice sheet continued to lose mass and the start of the melting of this ice sheet was the second earliest in the 37-year observational record; iv.) Arctic sea ice during late October and early November remained at its lowest extent since satellite surveillance began in 1967; v.) Arctic Ocean temperatures were above average; and vi.) widespread algal blooms and growth of other tiny marine plants were found, signalling increased Arctic Ocean productivity. [NOAA News] or [NOAA Climate.gov News]
More detailed information along with a nearly four-minute video (with audio) is available on this report. [Arctic Report Card]
Ice cover on the Arctic Ocean is becoming younger and thinner -- A 1 minute, 20 second video (with sound) was produced that contains an animation produced from NOAA and NASA data showing changes in the relative amount of ice of different ages from 1990 through early November 2016. This video shows that the amount of thick, multiyear or perennial ice has declined, replaced by thinner, young ice that is created every winter. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Global sea ice in November is termed a "black swan event" -- A feature article written for the ClimateWatch Magazine calls the record small extent of the sea ice in both the Northern Hemisphere's Arctic Ocean and the waters of the South Hemisphere surrounding Antarctica during November 2016 a "black swan event", a metaphor associated with a relatively rare and unexpected or surprise event. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Additional graphics are available on the extent of the Antarctic sea ice during November 2016. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Aircraft provides close view of crack in ice at Larsen C Ice Shelf-- Photographs made by a NASA scientist from the agency's DC-8 research aircraft in mid November shows an interesting view of the crack that formed across Antarctica's Larsen C ice shelf and grown longer and deeper during the last several months, which correspond to the Southern Hemisphere winter. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Project maps glacial ice flow speeds -- A team of scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the University of Alaska–Fairbanks, the United Kingdom's University of Bristol and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have started the Global Land Ice Velocity Extraction project (GoLIVE) that is designed to use data collected from NASA's Landsat 8 satellite to create near-real-time views of every large glacier and ice sheet on Earth in an effort to determine the changes in the speed of the ice flows. These changes in ice flow could affect global sea level rise. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Seasonal weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their new national Seasonal Outlook for the first three months of 2017 (January-March) that includes the last two months of meteorological winter and the first month of meteorological spring. Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, the southern half of the nation and the entire Eastern Seaboard were considered to have a better than average chance of having above average temperatures during the upcoming three months. The region with the greatest probability of occurrence was to be expected across New Mexico and most of Texas. On the other hand, areas along the US-Canadian border stretching from Washington state eastward to the western Great Lakes should experience a high chance of below average late winter-early spring temperatures. The greatest probability of such an occurrence would be found over Montana, North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the nation, primarily from northern California eastward across the Intermountain West, the central Rockies, the central Plains and the Midwest to the Great Lakes would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for the southern tier of states to have a better than even chance of below average precipitation for the first three months of 2017. The regions that would have the largest chances of drier than average conditions would extend from eastward from New Mexico and Texas eastward to Florida and adjoining sections of southern Georgia. Conversely, a broad area of the northern tier of states running from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes should have a better than even chance of above average precipitation running from January through March. The regions that could have the highest likelihood of wetter than normal conditions would be across the interior Northwest, primarily along the northern Rockies and across sections of the Midwest centered on the middle Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, a few sections of the coterminous states running from west to east across the central regions of the nation should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for the end of winter and the start of spring.
  A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that the current weak La Niña conditions could make a transition into ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation) during the first three months of 2017 when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions would prevail.
  A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-December 2016 through March 2017. Their outlook would call for persistence of extensive drought conditions across southern sections of the 48 contiguous US, especially over southern California and Arizona in the Southwest, as well as from the eastern slopes of the Rockies across the central and southern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast to Georgia and the southern Appalachians. A small section of southern New England could remain in drought. On the other hand, sections of northern New England, the Middle Atlantic States and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys could see some improvement in drought conditions. Northern California, sections of the Intermountain West and the Black Hills of South Dakota could possibly be removed from drought status. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.
Initial outlook for 2017 Atlantic hurricane season issued -- Last week Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and colleagues at Colorado State University issued a qualitative discussion of what they foresee as factors that should determine next year's Atlantic basin hurricane activity. They noted that two areas of uncertainty surround their forecast for the 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season. These uncertainties involve what will transpire with the status of the current weak La Niña conditions over the next several months and what type of trends would occur with the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation (AMO). They are using two primary physical parameters in their outlooks: (1.) the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation or the AMO and (2.) the phase of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The team plans on issuing their first quantitative forecast in mid-April 2017. Details of their initial qualitative assessment appear in the report issued by the Tropical Meteorology Project. [Colorado State University Report]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Approach to climate change issue may need revision -- .... An article written for Nexus Media last week describes a research project that presents the case for using historical data and past responses to weather and climate extremes for convincing conservatives on issues involving climate change rather than dwelling on an apocalyptic future. This strategy would show that consideration of adaptation and mitigation strategies relative to climate change is time well spent. [Nexus Media]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Historical Events:

19 December 1911...A 24-hour snowfall record occurred in Oklahoma with 22 inches at Beaver. (Intellicast)
19 December 1924...The Riverside Ranger Station in Yellowstone Park, WY reported a low of 59 degrees below zero, a December record for the contiguous U.S. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
19 December 1967...The second heavy snow in a week brought a total of 86 inches of snow to Flagstaff, AZ with a record snow depth of 83 inches. (Intellicast) (David Ludlum)
20 December 1989... Squalls produced more heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Erie, PA received 21 inches of snow, including four inches in one hour, to bring their total snow cover to 39 inches, an all-time record for that location. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
20 December 1990...Snow fell at Santa Maria, CA for the first time since records were kept. (Intellicast)
21 December 1892...Portland, OR was buried under an all-time record 27.5 inches of snow. (21^st-24^th) (The Weather Channel)
21 December 1989...Forty cities in the north central U.S., including thirteen in Iowa, reported record low temperatures for the date. The high for the date of 16 degrees below zero at Sioux Falls, SD was December record for that location. (The National Weather Summary)
23 December 1955...The barometric pressure dipped to 28.97 inches (981 millibars) at Boise, ID, an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)
23 December 1983...The temperature plunged to 50 degrees below zero at Williston, ND to equal their all-time record. Minneapolis, MN reported an afternoon high of 17 degrees below zero, and that evening strong northerly winds produced wind chill readings of 100 degrees below zero in North Dakota. (The National Weather Summary)
24 December 1872...Extreme cold gripped the Upper Midwest on Christmas Eve. Downtown Chicago reported an all-time record low of 23 degrees below zero, which stood until January 1982, and Minneapolis, MN reached 38 degrees below zero. The afternoon high at Minneapolis was 17 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)
24 December 1963...Memphis, TN set its all-time record low temperature with 13 degrees below zero, two days after a heavy 14.3-inch snowstorm. (Intellicast)
24 December 1982...The "Blizzard of 1982" hit eastern Colorado. Denver recorded 23.6 inches of snow in 24 hours, setting a new 24-hour record. Winds of 60 mph whipped the snow into 4 to 8 foot drifts. Stapleton Airport was closed for 33 hours and most roads were impassable. (Intellicast)
24 December 1983...The barometric pressure reached of mercury (1064.05 mb) at Miles City, MT to establish a high barometric pressure record for the U.S. It was the coldest Christmas Eve of modern record. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and all-time record lows for December were reported at seventeen cities, including Chicago with a low of 25 degrees below zero, and Havre, MT with a reading of 50 below zero. Sioux Falls, SD stayed below zero for eight consecutive days. Great Falls, MT dropped to a frigid 42 degrees below zero. Dayton, OH reached 13 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
24 December 1989... Christmas Eve 1989 became one of the coldest on record. Fifty-seven cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV with a reading of 22 degrees below zero. Key West, FL equaled their record for December with a morning low of 44 degrees. Huntsville, AL hit one degree above zero. The high of just 45 degrees at Miami, FL was an all-time record for that location after a morning low of 33 degrees. It smashed their previous record for the date by twenty degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
25 December 1988...A massive winter storm made for a very white Christmas in the western U.S. Las Vegas, NV reported snow on the ground for the first time of record. Periods of snow over a five-day period left several feet of new snow on the ground of ski areas in Colorado, with 68 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
25 December 1989...It was a record cold Christmas Day for parts of the southeastern U.S. Morning lows of zero degrees at Wilmington, NC and five degrees below zero at Jacksonville, NC established all-time records for those two locations. Miami Beach, FL equaled a December record established the previous morning with a low of 33 degrees. Erie, PA set an all-time snowfall record for the month as light snow brought the total to 60.3 inches. Tallahassee, FL had a trace of snow, the first ever for Christmas Day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
25 December 2004...It was New Orleans' first (and, so far, only) Christmas with measurable snowfall, with half an inch of snow. It was also their fourth heaviest snow on record. (National Weather Service files)
25 December 2011...The highest temperature ever recorded at the South Pole was reached with a reading of 9.9 degrees Fahrenheit. (National Weather Service files)

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