WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

23-27 December 2013

DataStreme Earth's Climate Systems will return for Spring 2014 with new Investigations files starting during Preview Week, Monday, 20 January 2014. All the current online website products, including updated issues of Weekly Climate News, will continue to be available throughout the winter break period.

Happy Holidays to you and yours from the AMS DS Earth's Climate Systems Central Staff!

Ed Hopkins

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Dreaming of a White Christmas -- NOAA's National Climatic Data Center recently produced a national map showing the climatological probability (in percent) that a snow depth of at least one inch would be observed on the morning of 25 December based upon the new 1981-2010 standard 30-year climatological reference interval. This new map supersedes an older map that accompanied a report that used data collected from 340 first order stations during an earlier 1961-1990 standard 30-year climatological reference interval. This earlier report indicated that some locations across the 48 coterminous United States are almost certain to have a white Christmas. These places can be found along the Canadian border surrounding the Great Lakes, such as International Falls, MN and Marquette, MI (both with 100%) and in New England, such as at Caribou, ME (97%). Stations at higher elevations in the Rockies also have a higher probability, such as at Flagstaff, AZ with a 56%. Sites close to the oceans typically have a lower probability, as the oceans tend to be relatively warm at this time of year. Santa typically finds tough sledding on his journey to that half of the country south of latitude 40 degrees that is not mountainous, where chances of a white Christmas fall from 50% to 20% or less. You can monitor the current snow cover across North America using a snow chart that is based upon satellite data.
NOAA climate scientists make list of "Top 100 Global Thinkers" -- Three NOAA climate scientists who edited the report "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective" that was published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society this past fall have been placed on Foreign Policy Magazine's annual list of "Top 100 Global Thinkers" in the "Naturals" category These three climate scientists include Thomas Peterson and Stephanie Herring from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and Martin Hoerling from NOAA Research. [NOAA NCDC News]
Peter Stott from the United Kingdom's Met Office and who is another author on the above-mentioned report also made this list of Top Global Thinkers. [UK Met Office News]
Climatology of Southeast NCAA bowl games updated -- The Southeast Regional Climate Center has provided a listing of the weather history for twelve NCAA college bowl games that are to be played within the next two weeks across the Southeastern States. This climatology includes the warmest, coldest, wettest and snowiest days in the particular bowl's history.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

A global review of November 2013 temperatures -- Preliminary analysis of temperature data by scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center indicates that the worldwide combined ocean and land surface temperature for November 2013 ranked as the record highest global November surface temperature since a sufficiently dense and reliable network began in 1880. This combined global temperature was approximately 1.4 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) average November temperature. They also found that the global land surface temperatures was the second highest readings for any November on record, while the global ocean surface temperature was the third highest since 1880. Furthermore, they reported that the combined land and ocean surface temperature for the globe during the Northern Hemisphere autumn (September-November 2013) was the second highest for all boreal autumn seasons on record, behind the corresponding three-months in 2005. ENSO-neutral conditions continued for the nineteenth consecutive month as of November 2013. These conditions could extend through Northern Hemisphere winter and into spring, thereby affecting global ocean temperatures in the upcoming months. [NOAA/NCDC State of the Climate]
November national drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its November 2013 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately five percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of November, while 15 percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
"Old sea ice" diminishes across the Arctic Ocean basin -- An animation (one-minute) was produced by NOAA climate.gov from data provided by the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research (CCAR)that shows the age of sea ice in the Arctic basin between 1987 and the end of October 2013. The amount of multi-year sea ice across the basin has decreased, with increasing amounts of the remaining ice consisting of "first-year ice" that is younger and thinner. The oldest ice is more than 9 years old. In addition to a warming trend across the Arctic basin, wind and ocean circulation patterns have helped reduce the age of the Arctic sea ice. [NOAA Climate News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Increase in sulfur dioxide emissions from India seen from space -- Using data collected by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Aura satellite, scientists from Argonne National Laboratory and their colleagues from the US Environmental Protection Agency and academia have determined that emissions of sulfur dioxide from power plants in India have increased by over 60 percent between 2005 and 2012. With these increases, India as surpassed the United States in 2010 to become the world's second largest emitter of sulfur dioxide, after China. Two maps show the locations of many of the major sources of India's sulfur dioxide emissions in 2005 and 2012. [NASA's Earth Science News Team]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [ NOAAWatch]

CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH

Air pollution crisis linked to Greek economic hardship -- Researchers at the University of Southern California (USC) and their colleagues at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and in Greece report that dangerous air quality conditions developed across Greece because of the widespread burning of cheaper fuel for warmth during the country's economic crisis. High concentrations of fine air particles could result in long-term health effects. [University of Southern California News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Seasonal weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their new national Seasonal Outlook for the first three months of 2014 (January-March) that includes the last two months of meteorological winter and the first month of meteorological spring. Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, a large section of the Southern States extending from the Great Basin and Arizona eastward to Carolinas should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for these three upcoming months. The greatest probability of such an occurrence is to be found across New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana. The northern Plains, primarily across North Dakota, along with sections of Washington and Oregon, were considered to have a better than average chance of below average late winter-eatly spring temperatures. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the nation, extending from coast to coast would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for sections of the Southwest and the Southeast to have a better than even chance of below average precipitation for the first three months of 2014. The regions that would have the largest chances in the Southwest are across southern sections of Arizona and New Mexico and across northern Georgia and sections of Georgia and South Carolina in the Southeast. Elsewhere, a large area of the coterminous states should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for the end of winter and the start of spring. Although sections of Alaska may have a better chance for above average precipitation, no area in the 48 coterminous states should expect to above average precipitation.
  A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that assuming that the current ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation) should continue through the Northern Hemisphere's meteorological summer (June-August), where neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions should prevail. A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-December 2013 through March 2014. Their outlook would call for persistence or the development of extensive drought conditions across most of the southwestern quadrant of the nation extending from California's Pacific Coast eastward to the southern and central Plains. Drought should also continue across sections of the Midwest currently experiencing drought conditions. Drought conditions were expected to develop across sections of the Southeast that were not currently under major drought conditions. Only a few scattered areas across the interior Northwest, the Mississippi Valley and the Northeast could see some improvement in drought conditions, with some of these areas possibly being removed from drought status. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.
UK Met Office global average temperature forecast made for 2014 -- Last week, scientists at the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office (Met Office) released their annual global temperature forecast for the upcoming year of 2014. They anticipate the global average temperature in 2014 to be 0.57 Celsius degrees above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 degrees Celsius, with a range of uncertainty extending from 0.43 to 0.71 Celsius degrees around the central estimate. Using observational data running through October 2013, the scientists also noted that this current year's global temperature has a central estimate of 0.49 Celsius degrees above the 1961-1990 average, with an uncertainty range extending from 0.39 to 0.59 Celsius degrees above the average. These preliminary statistics for 2013 not only falls within the forecast limits made by the Met Office in December 2012, but also suggests that 2013 would rank as one of the ten warmest years since comprehensive global climate records began in 1880. [Editor's note: The statistics involved with the global temperature record are from the three main global temperature datasets compiled by: The Met Office and University of East Anglia (HadCRUT4); NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NOAA NCDC) and NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA GISS). The Met Office uses the 1961-1990 interval for long-term averages that is accepted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), rather than the 1981-2010 interval currently used by NCDC. EJH [UK Met Office News]
Frequency of riverine flooding could increase with climate change -- Scientists at the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office reported that a study they conducted indicates the frequency of river flooding together with peak flow volumes across many areas of the globe should increase due to projected changes in climate involving intensified heavy rainfall. This study combined the results of climate models and river flow simulation models across several different regions. One of the models, which used a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario through the end of the 21st century, increases in extreme river flows could be in more than half of the areas considered. In some places, 1 in 30-year events could become as frequent as 1 in 5 years. [NOAA News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Interior Department to fund new scientific studies in conjunction with President's Climate Action Plan -- The Secretary of the Department of Interior Sally Jewell announce last week that her department's eight regional Climate Science Centers were to award nearly $7 million to universities and other partners for research designed to reduce carbon pollution and move the nation's economy toward clean energy sources as part of President Obama's Climate Action Plan. [US Department of Interior Press Release]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Historical Events:

23 December 1955...The barometric pressure dipped to 28.97 inches (981 millibars) at Boise, ID, an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)
23 December 1983...The temperature plunged to 50 degrees below zero at Williston, ND to equal their all-time record. Minneapolis, MN reported an afternoon high of 17 degrees below zero, and that evening strong northerly winds produced wind chill readings of 100 degrees below zero in North Dakota. (The National Weather Summary)
24 December 1872...Extreme cold gripped the Upper Midwest on Christmas Eve. Downtown Chicago reported an all-time record low of 23 degrees below zero, which stood until January 1982, and Minneapolis, MN reached 38 degrees below zero. The afternoon high at Minneapolis was 17 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)
24 December 1963...Memphis, TN set its all-time record low temperature with 13 degrees below zero, two days after a heavy 14.3-inch snowstorm. (Intellicast)
24 December 1982...The "Blizzard of 1982" hit eastern Colorado. Denver recorded 23.6 inches of snow in 24 hours, setting a new 24-hour record. Winds of 60 mph whipped the snow into 4 to 8 foot drifts. Stapleton Airport was closed for 33 hours and most roads were impassable. (Intellicast)
24 December 1983...The barometric pressure reached 31.42 inches at Miles City, MT to establish a high barometric pressure record for the U.S. It was the coldest Christmas Eve of modern record. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and all-time record lows for December were reported at seventeen cities, including Chicago with a low of 25 degrees below zero, and Havre, MT with a reading of 50 below zero. Sioux Falls, SD stayed below zero for eight consecutive days. Great Falls, MT dropped to a frigid 42 degrees below zero. Dayton, OH reached 13 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
24 December 1989... Christmas Eve 1989 became one of the coldest on record. Fifty-seven cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV with a reading of 22 degrees below zero. Key West, FL equaled their record for December with a morning low of 44 degrees. Huntsville, AL hit one degree above zero. The high of just 45 degrees at Miami, FL was an all-time record for that location after a morning low of 33 degrees. It smashed their previous record for the date by twenty degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
25 December 1988...A massive winter storm made for a very white Christmas in the western U.S. Las Vegas, NV reported snow on the ground for the first time of record. Periods of snow over a five-day period left several feet of new snow on the ground of ski areas in Colorado, with 68 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
25 December 1989...It was a record cold Christmas Day for parts of the southeastern U.S. Morning lows of zero degrees at Wilmington, NC and five degrees below zero at Jacksonville, NC established all-time records for those two locations. Miami Beach, FL equaled a December record established the previous morning with a low of 33 degrees. Erie, PA set an all-time snowfall record for the month as light snow brought the total to 60.3 inches. Tallahassee, FL had a trace of snow, the first ever for Christmas Day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
26 December 1909...Philadelphia, PA had its record snow to that date with 21 inches. The Delaware state record was also broken with 24 inches. (Intellicast)
26 December 1947...New York City recorded its all-time record snow with 25.8 inches at the Battery and 26.8 inches at Central Park. A record 26.4 inches of snow fell in 24 hours, with as much as 32 inches reported in the suburbs. White Plains had 6 inches in one hour with 19 inches in just 6 hours. The heavy snow brought traffic to a standstill, and snow removal cost eight million dollars. Thirty thousand persons were called upon to remove the 100 million tons of snow. The storm claimed 27 lives. (26^th-27^th) (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
26 December 1983...Miami, FL established a December record with a morning low of 33 degrees. Just three days earlier, and again three days later, record high temperatures were reported in Florida, with daytime highs in the 80s. (The National Weather Summary)
26 December 1993...Bitterly cold air prevailed across the north central states. Sault Ste Marie, MI plunged to 31 degrees below zero to set a new December record. Tower, MN reached a frigid 50 degrees below zero. (Intellicast)
26 December 2004...A massive earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter magnitude scale approximately 100 miles off the western coast of Sumatra created a tsunami that caused devastation in Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, The Maldives and many other areas around the rim of the Indian Ocean. The death toll is currently estimated at more than 300,000. Officials say the true toll may never be known, due to rapid burials. Indonesia was worst affected with as many as 219,000 people killed. (Wikipedia)
28 December 1897...The temperature at Dayville, OR hit 81 degrees to establish a state record for December. (The Weather Channel)
28 December 1955...Anchorage, AK was buried under 17.7 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. (28^th-29^th) (The Weather Channel)
28 December 1958...Albuquerque, NM received 14.2 inches of snow to establish a 24-hour record. (28^th-29^th) (The Weather Channel)
29 December 1917...Washta, IA dropped to 40 degrees below zero, the record low temperature for the Hawkeye State; this record has been broken by a 47 degree below zero reading in February 1996. (Intellicast)
29 December 1933...Ontario's coldest day on record as fourteen sites recorded their lowest-ever temperature, including Ottawa (-38?F) and Algonquin Park (-49?F). (The Weather Doctor)
29 December 1954...Fort Scott, KS was buried under 26 inches of snow in 24 hours to establish a state record. (28^th-29^th) (The Weather Channel)
29 December 1984...One hundred cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures. Southerly winds gusting to 50 mph helped Kansas City experience its warmest December day of record with a morning low of 60 degrees and an afternoon high of 71 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
29 December 2004...The sea-level corrected atmospheric pressure rose to an unofficial world's record for highest sea level pressure reaching 1083.8 millibars (32.01 inches) at Agata, Siberia. At the time, Agata Lake reported a temperature of -46^o C (-50.8^oF). (The Weather Doctor) This world record has superceded a reading of 1085.6 mb millibars (32.06 inches of mercury) at Tonsontsengel, Mongolia on 19 December 2001.

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