WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS BREAK WEEK: 10-14 October 2016

This is Break Week One for the Fall 2016 offering of the DataStreme Earth Climate Studies course. This Weekly Climate News contains new information items and historical data, but the Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 6.

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Celebrate Earth Science Week 2016 -- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including the National Weather Service, along with NASA, the US Geological Survey and several professional scientific organizations such as the American Geological Institute have recognized this week (9-15 October 2016) as Earth Science Week 2016 to help the public gain a better understanding and appreciation for the earth sciences and to encourage stewardship of the Earth. This year's theme for the 18th annual Earth Science Week is “Our Shared Geoheritage” that is designed to encourage young people and others to explore geoheritage throughout all five Earth systems. Geoheritage is considered to be "the collection of natural wonders, landforms, and resources that have formed over eons and come to this generation to manage, use, and conserve effectively." [American Geological Institute]
Observe Earth Observation Day -- On Tuesday 11 October 2016, Earth Observation Day (EOD) will be observed as a celebration of the NASA/USGS (US Geological Survey) Landsat mission. EOD is a Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) educational outreach event sponsored by AmericaView, a nationwide, university-based, and state-implemented consortium, and its partners. The goal of EOD is to engage students and teachers in remote sensing as an exciting and powerful educational tool. Lesson plans and educational resources for educators and students are available from the EOD website. [AmericaView]
Viewing atmospheric circulation in three-dimensions -- Read this week's Supplemental Information.. In Greater Depth for information concerning the average circulation in the lower and upper troposphere.
Words to be used and not used to describe extreme rainfall events -- A somewhat humorous article appearing in NASA's Earth Observatory entitled "The Language of Science: Do's and Don'ts of Extreme Rainfall" provides a variety of terms that are both appropriate and inappropriate for describing torrential or excessive rainfall events, like those that inundated coastal Louisiana during this past August. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE MONITORING

Pondering the meaning of a "thousand-year rainstorm" event -- Motivated by the excessive rain events that flooded West Virginia in June and Louisiana in August, a meteorologist from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center wrote an article for ClimateWatch Magazine that explains in relatively simple terms the meaning of the oft-used phrase "thousand-year event." He notes that the scientific community may have 100 years of quantitative weather data, but no such records extend back 1000 years. Explaining further, he notes that the designation of a "thousand-year event" is based upon statistics involved with the frequency distribution of the data covering only a century or less. Specifically, a 1000-year event would be one where the amount of rain in that event has only a 0.1% (or 1-in-1000) chance of occurring. The author also addresses misconceptions that develop with the use of this terminology and also possible effects due to a changing climate. [NOAA News]
Explaining reason for record-breaking 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season -- A team of researchers from NOAA, the University of South Florida, Colorado State University and Weatherbell Analytics LLC provided an explanation for the near record number of hurricanes that developed in the eastern North Pacific basin during 2015. In addition, Hurricane Patricia was the strongest hurricane on record in the Western Hemisphere. They claim that this large number was due to the record sea surface temperatures across the basin associated with last year's very strong El Niño event that coincided with a "positive" phase in the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), a tropical climate pattern involving interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean. [EOS Earth & Space Science News]
Four new billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in summer 2016 reported across nation -- Scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently updated their national annual list of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters for 2016 to include four new billion-dollar disasters that occurred between May and August 2016. These four events were tornadoes and other severe weather across the nation's midsection in early May; historic flooding in West Virginia and tornadoes in the Ohio Valley during late June; severe weather in the Rockies and the Northeast in late July; and massive flooding in Louisiana in mid August. With the addition of these four disasters, the nation has experienced a total of 12 billion-dollar disasters through August. According to NCEI, these 12 events, which do not include recent notable disasters during September and October, represent the second most number of events in a calendar year since 1980, running behind the 16 individual disasters in 2011. [NOAA News]
Little-known aspect of New Orleans heat record is described -- New Orleans, LA and some other stations across the South have been experiencing record or near record warmth this past summer. One of the indicators of this warmth has been the larger than expected number of calendar days that have had minimum temperatures that have remained at or above 80 degrees Fahrenheit. While the increase in the number of 80-degree nights at New Orleans was initially attributed to the extremely humid conditions in the tropical air mass (as reflected by high dewpoint temperatures), the Louisiana State Climatologist recently also noted that construction around Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport this past summer appears to have dramatically changed the land use surrounding the airport's ASOS (Automatic Surface Observation System), resulting in elevated minimum temperatures. [Washington Post Capital Weather Gang]

CLIMATE FORCING

Fossil fuel methane emissions found to be greater than previously estimated -- Scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory recently reported on their analysis of the largest database of methane measurements ever assembled to determine sources of methane emissions into the atmosphere from fossil fuel development, natural geologic sources, microbial activity, and biomass burning. The researchers found that although atmospheric emissions of methane from fossil fuel development are as much as 60 percent higher than estimated by previous studies, the amount of methane emitted by fossil fuel activities accounts for only 20 to 25 percent of the total global methane emissions. Methane emissions from microbial sources remain the largest contributor, representing roughly 60 to 67 percent of the total annual emissions. [NOAA Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research News]
Trio of volcanic plumes from South Atlantic islands detected from space -- A false-color image of the region of the South Atlantic Ocean surrounding the South Sandwich Islands made at the end of September from data collected by the MODIS sensor onboard NASA's Aqua satellite reveals three separate volcanic plumes. These plumes were from the volcanoes that are on the uninhabited South Sandwich Islands. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Risk of long-lasting megadroughts across American Southwest rises with rising temperatures -- Scientists at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Cornell University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies warn that as temperatures across the American Southwest increase, the risk of severe, long-lasting megadroughts across this region also rises. The researchers considered a "megadrought" to be a prolonged drought lasting 35 years or longer. Basing their outlooks on the results of several climate models and 2000 years of climate data reconstructed from tree rings, they foresee at least a 90-percent likelihood of a megadrought occurring across the western or central US by the end of the 21st century if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News]
More powerful tropical cyclones in North Atlantic foreseen in future due to changing climate -- Scientists at Rutgers University, including the New Jersey state climatologist, claim that as the Earth's climate continues to change, the combined warming of the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere should increase the potential for more power tropical cyclones than Hurricane Sandy that hit the New Jersey coast in October 2012. The researchers also noted the rising number of people that would be at risk. [Rutgers University News] Editor's Note: The above referenced item is the third story in a three-part series with previous parts that are of interest: [Part 1] Learning from lessons provided by Hurricane Sandy and [Part 2] "Rogue" storm in 1950 produced stronger surge along New Jersey coast than Sandy. EJH

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Changing climate impacts New England lobsters -- A contractor with NOAA's Climate Program Office wrote an article describing how increases in the water temperatures of the western North Atlantic Ocean due to the changing climate have had an impact upon the American lobster (Homarus americanus), causing the populations of lobsters to move northward along the coast of New England into the Gulf of Maine. Changes associated with ocean acidification that result in imbalances in pH are also considered. The shift in the lobster populations has also had an impact upon New England coastal communities that depend upon the lobster industry. [NOAA News]
Tree growth and photosynthesis appear slowed by urban warming-- Entomologists at North Carolina State University have that urban warming appears to play a significant role in reducing the growth and photosynthesis activity in city trees. These researchers also found that insect pests are part of the problem of reduced growth. [North Carolina State University News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Grants awarded to advance climate research and improve community resilience -- During the past week NOAA's Climate Program Office announced it had awarded $44.3 million for 73 new research projects at a variety of governmental and university laboratories that are designed to advance the understanding, modeling and prediction of Earth's climate system and to improve decision making processes designed to facilitate community resilience. [NOAA Climate Office Program News]
EPA launches new interactive climate change adaptation resource for communities -- The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently announced that it launched "Climate Change Adaptation Resource Center" (ARC-X)" a new web portal designed to as an interactive resource designed to help communities prepare for climate change through adaptation strategies and practices. This tool is tailored to the geography and climates of different regions of the country. [US Environmental Protection Agency]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

This Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 6.

Concept of the Week: Tropospheric westerly winds, north and south

The theoretical existence of upper tropospheric jet stream winds were not confirmed until being encountered by World War II bomber pilots when heading west into strong headwinds at altitudes of approximately 30,000 feet (10,000 m). Wind speeds sometimes exceeded 170 mph causing their relatively slow, heavily laden aircraft to almost stand still. Subsequently, westerly jet stream winds were found to encircle the planet in midlatitudes of both hemispheres above regions of strong temperature contrasts.

The explanation for these winds involves atmospheric mass distributions and forces on a rotating planet. Air in tropical latitudes is warmed, rises and then flows poleward, both north and south. On a rotating planet, moving air is deflected by the Coriolis effect, to the right in the Northern Hemisphere (and left in the Southern). The greater the temperature differences between warm lower and cold higher latitudes, the stronger the air motions and the faster the jet streams. The vertical temperature patterns result in the highest wind speeds near the top of the troposphere.

So Northern Hemisphere air headed northward, deflected to the right ends up headed east, a "westerly wind." In the Southern Hemisphere, southward moving air, deflected left will also go east, as a westerly wind. These "rivers" of strong upper-level winds steer surface weather systems as they move generally eastward across midlatitudes. They also provide boosts for jet aircraft headed eastward with them, but need to be avoided for going west! Of course, the full story is complex as land (especially mountains) and water surfaces interact with the heating of the air and eddies form in the turbulent flows, so jet streams wander. And with them go the storms and the weather patterns that form our short-term climate.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The Northern Hemisphere jet stream winds would be directed such that cold air is [(to the left),(to the right),(directly ahead)] of their forward motion.
In the Southern Hemisphere, the jet stream winds to be directed generally toward the [(south), (east), (west)].

Historical Events:

10-16 October 1780...The most deadly Western Hemisphere hurricane on record raged across the Caribbean Basin, killing 22,000 people on the islands of Martinique, St. Eustatius, and Barbados. Thousands more die at sea. (The Weather Doctor)
10 October 1928...The temperature at Minneapolis, MN reached 90 degrees, their latest such reading of record. (The Weather Channel)
10 October 1967...Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island experienced its wettest day ever when 4.19 inches of rain fell. (The Weather Doctor)
10 October 1973...Fifteen to 20 inches of rain deluged north central Oklahoma in thirteen hours producing record flooding. Enid was drenched with 15.68 inches of rain from the nearly stationary thunderstorms, which established a state 24-hour rainfall record. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
10 October 1979...A storm blanketed Worcester, MA with 7.5 inches of snow, a record snowfall total for so early in the season for that location. The earliest measurable snowfall was recorded at Boston, MA with 0.2 inches falling. Blue Hill Observatory at an elevation of 635 feet had 7 inches. (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)
10 October 1991...Sacramento, CA hit 100 degrees setting a daily record. It was also the latest 100-degree reading and the warmest so late in the season. (Intellicast)
11 October 1977...The wet community of Ketchikan, AK experienced its wettest day: 8.71 inches. (The Weather Doctor)
11 October 2005...A tropical depression, the former Hurricane Vince, became the first tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in Spain. (The Weather Doctor)
12 October 1979...The lowest observed sea-level barometric pressure (870 millibars or 25.69 inches of mercury) was recorded approximately 300 miles west of Guam in the western Pacific Ocean at the center of Typhoon Tip. This super typhoon had 190-mph winds. Gale force winds extended 1,350 miles out from the eye making it the largest tropical cyclone on record. (The Weather Doctor)
12 October 1982...Angoon, AK received 15.20 inches of precipitation, to set a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the 49th State. (NCDC)
12 October 2006...With 0.3 inches of snow falling at O'Hare International Airport, Chicago, IL set a new record for the earliest measurable snowfall since record-keeping began in 1871. The previous earliest date was 18 October in both 1972 and 1989. An unusually-early and intense lake-effect snow storm, resulted in 8.3 inches of snow that was measured at the official Buffalo, NY weather station on the 12th set a record for the snowiest October day in the station's 137-year history. The record did not last long, however, as the measurement on the morning of the 13th totaled 10.9 inches. The two-day event totaled 22.6 inches (57.4 cm), breaking the October record for a single snowfall event. The storm was the sixth heaviest snowfall on record. (The Weather Doctor)
15-17 October 2005...The summit of Mount Washington, NH, the highest peak in the Northeast received 34 inches of snow between Saturday and Monday. The 24-hour record for the most snowfall was broken when 25.5 inches of snow piles up between noon Sunday and noon Monday. (The Weather Doctor)
16 October 1913...The temperature in Downtown San Francisco soared to 101 degrees to equal their record for October. (The Weather Channel)
16 October 1988...The afternoon high temperature of 100 degrees at Red Bluff, CA was the latest such reading of record for so late in the autumn season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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