WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

20-24 November 2017

This is Thanksgiving Break for the Fall 2017 offering of this course. This Weekly Climate News contains new information items and historical data, but the Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 11.

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving Week from the AMS Climate Studies Central Staff and Ed Hopkins!

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Nation's newest polar-orbiting weather satellite is launched -- During the predawn hours of Saturday morning, the new JPSS-1 Polar Orbiting Weather Satellite (JPSS-1) lifted off from California's Vandenberg AFB on a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket and successfully placed into orbit. JPSS-1, which will eventually be renamed NOAA 20, is the first of four highly advanced polar-orbiting satellites that NASA will be launch for NOAA. [NASA Press Release] This satellite is equipped with three instruments that will provide meteorologists with observations of atmospheric temperature and water vapor, clouds, sea-surface temperature, ocean color, sea ice cover, volcanic ash, and wildfires. It is designed to improve the accuracy of NOAA's weather forecasts out to seven days. [NOAA NCEI News] Slightly more than three weeks ago, NOAA celebrated the launch of the NOAA/NASA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite on 28 October 2011. Suomi NPP marks a bridge between NOAA's legacy Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (or POES) and NOAA's next generation Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) weather satellites. [NOAA Satellite and Information Service]
Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of October 2017 weather and climate across the US -- Using preliminary weather data gathered during the month of October 2017 from across the nation, scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently reported that the average temperature averaged across the 48 contiguous United States for this past month was approximately 1.6 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) long-term average, making this recently concluded month the 21st warmest October since a comprehensive national climate network began in 1895. All the states in the eastern half of the nation experienced above- to much above-average October statewide temperatures, with the six New England States having temperatures that were the highest in the 123-year period of record. Nine additional states across the Middle Atlantic and eastern Great Lakes reported statewide October temperatures that ranked within the top ten for their respective state records. In addition, three states (Arizona, California and New Mexico) had above- to much above-average temperatures, with Arizona had its sixth warmest October in the last 123. On the other hand, four states in the Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington and Wyoming) experienced below-average statewide temperatures. Elsewhere, states along the eastern slopes of the Rockies and across the Great Basin had near-average October temperatures.
Preliminary precipitation records for October 2017 indicate that the nationwide average precipitation total for the month was 0.37 inches above the 20th century average, placing the month as the 31st wettest of the 123-year record. Relatively wet conditions were found across the eastern half of the contiguous US, with seven states across the Northeast and Midwest reporting statewide October precipitation totals that ranked within the top ten for the 123-year period of record. Michigan had its wettest October since 1895. On the other hand, states across the Southwest and northern Plains had much below-average October precipitation. Arizona and Utah had their fifth driest Octobers on record. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
A map of the surface temperature anomalies for October across the "Lower 48 States" along with southern Canada and northern Mexico was produced by NASA from data collected by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard NASA’s Aqua satellite. The surface temperature anomalies in this map represent the temperature departure of the top 1 millimeter of the land surface during the daytime from the corresponding 15-year average October temperatures (2002-2016) as detected by the AIRS instrument, which is a thermal sensor. These surface temperature anomalies, in Celsius degrees, will vary from the temperature anomalies obtained from the traditional surface weather stations, that have sensors approximately 1.5 meters above the surface. The map shows one large area with positive surface temperature anomalies (higher than average temperatures) across Ontario, Quebec and New England, along with another area in northwestern Mexico and the Southwest. Negative temperature anomalies were detected along the Rockies, the northern Plains and the Northwest. [NASA Earth Observatory]
October drought report -- The National Centers for Environmental Information has posted its October 2017 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately three percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of October, while thirteen percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.

CLIMATE MONITORING

Sulfur dioxide emissions into atmosphere have increased over India, but decreased over China during last decade -- Using atmospheric sulfur dioxide data collected by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Aura satellite, scientists at NASA, the University of Maryland, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Michigan Technological University and Argonne National Laboratory have determined that since 2007, sulfur dioxide emissions have increased by 50 percent, while emissions over China have decreased by 75 percent. Most of the sulfur dioxide emissions originate from coal-burning power plants and factories. [NASA Earth Observatory]
The climate observing system of the future is being designed -- A committee of 28 scientists, including the heads of four NOAA research laboratories, recently published an article entitled "Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future" in which they call for climate observations to be made by a system that is planned in a comprehensive, focused manner and adequately addressing the full range of climate needs. They suggest an approach where priority is given to the seven important topics associated with the Grand Challenges identified by the World Climate Research Programme: Melting Ice and Global Consequences; Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity; Carbon Feedbacks in the Climate System; Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes; Water for the Food Baskets of the World; Regional Sea-Level Change and Coastal Impacts; and Near-term Climate Prediction. [NOAA Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research News]

CLIMATE FORCING

Shape of Lake Ontario helps generate lake-effect blizzards -- Researchers from several institutions including the University of Utah and the University of Wyoming recently reported that the shape of Lake Ontario plays an important role in creating massive snowfall totals over Upstate New York's Tug Hill Plateau during lake-effect snowstorms. While air circulation needed to produce the intense lake-effect snowstorms is fueled by the heat released by the lake, the shoreline geography of Lake Ontario along with its east-west orientation affects the formation and location of this circulation. [National Science Foundation News]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Climate models and fossils used to study one of warmest periods in Earth's history -- An article appearing in the ClimateWatch Magazine features the collaborative efforts of a climate modeler and a paleobotanist to understand the environmental and ecological conditions during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), considered to be one of the warmest times in Earth history that occurred approximately 56 million years ago at the boundary between the Paleocene and Eocene geological epochs. At that time, global temperatures may have risen by 9 to 14 Fahrenheit degrees over a span of several thousand years.[NOAA Climate.gov News]
Major shifts in Colorado River found during its history -- Researchers from the University of Oregon and the US Geological Survey have found that over the course of its history spanning millions of years, the Colorado River in the Southwestern US has undergone several major changes in its course from the Colorado Plateau to the Gulf of California. The researchers claim that shifts in underlying bedrock and changing sea levels have influenced the path of lower stretches of the river, including a series of stops and starts between approximately 6.3 and 4.8 million years ago. [University of Oregon Academics & Research]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Satellite shows how Alaskan dust storm helps fuel offshore phytoplankton bloom -- A natural-color image of the coastal region of southern Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska near Prince William Sound was obtained from data collected by the MODIS sensor onboard NASA's Aqua satellite on the previous weekend. This image shows brown colored plumes of dust being carried southward from land out over the waters of the Gulf of Alaska due to late autumn dust storms and green colored coastal waters where phytoplankton blooms have developed. Research by scientists from NASA, the US Geological Survey and other organizations indicates that dust storms provide nutrients, such as iron, to the Gulf of Alaska, which help promote phytoplankton growth. [NASA Earth Observatory]
A 50-year statistical reconstruction of chlorophyll measurements made for the Pacific basin -- A team of researchers from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, NOAA's Center for Satellite Applications and Research, and the University of Maryland has created a statistical reconstruction of chlorophyll measurements made across the Pacific Ocean between 1958 and 2008. This reconstruction, which involved both traditional oceanographic sampling and satellite observations, provides the first basin-wide view of the monthly changes in chlorophyll associated with changes in phytoplankton especially in the tropical Pacific. Three maps of the Pacific basin reflect differences in the distribution and amount of chlorophyll associated with a strong La Niña event in 1973, a very strong, basin-wide El Niño event in 1982, and a strong Central Pacific El Niño in 1987. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH

Major smog event this month creates unhealthy conditions in India and Pakistan -- NOAA scientists recently reported that large sections of India and Pakistan have been plagued by persistent smog during November, fouling the air and make it quite unhealthy for humans. Extreme levels of fine particulate matter, called "PM2.5" (airborne particulate matter that is less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter) have been reached in some measurements taken in these two countries. Consequently, very poor air quality indices have been reported. The thick smog developed because of widespread burning of crop fields in northern India and the formation of a thermal inversion layer that inhibits vertical mixing, leading to dangerous levels of air pollution in cities across northern India and Pakistan. A satellite image obtained from the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite during the second week of November shows the widespread thick smog layer. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Updated winter weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their updated Three-Month Seasonal Outlook for meteorological winter (the three months of December 2017 through February 2018) across the nation. Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, the southern tier of states extending from southern California along the West Coast eastward to the Carolinas and the Atlantic Seaboard running from Florida northward to northern New England should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for these three upcoming months. The greatest probability of such an occurrence to be found in the Southwest, running across Arizona, Texas and New Mexico. Conversely, the region that should have the best chance of below average temperatures would be over the northern tier of states running from western Washington and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Dakotas and Minnesota in the upper Midwest. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the nation would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions. These regions would extend eastward from northern California across the northern Rockies, and the central Plains to the Great Lakes and the Midwest.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for the southern third of the nation, extending from southern California eastward to the Florida Peninsula and the Atlantic Seaboard northward through the Carolinas have a better than even chance of below average precipitation for meteorological winter 2017-18. The greatest probability for dry winter conditions would be centered on northern Florida and nearby sections of the Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. On the other hand, most of the northern half of the nation would have better than even chances of above average precipitation totals for these upcoming three months. The regions with the highest probability of a wet winter are centered upon sections of the northern Rockies and adjacent high Plains, along with the Midwest. Elsewhere, a narrow section of the coterminous states running from the Pacific Coast to Middle Atlantic and New England coast should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for this upcoming winter.
  A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based upon the anticipation that La Niña conditions should continue through most of this upcoming winter. A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
  NOTE: These outlooks can be compared with the public winter outlooks that CPC released in mid-October 2017.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-November 2017 through February 2018.
  Their outlook indicates that most of those areas across the nation that are currently experiencing drought conditions would continue to experience drought through this upcoming winter. These regions are primarily found in the Southwest (southern California and Arizona), across the northern high Plains (Montana and the Dakotas), the South Central US (Texas, Arkansas and Missouri) and the southern Appalachians (in the Carolinas). Anticipated development of drought conditions would result in the expansion of drought across sections of the Southwest and the Gulf Coast States, running from Texas eastward to the Carolinas. A few scattered areas across the northern Rockies and adjacent high Plains in Montana could see some improvement of their drought conditions, with some areas possibly seeing a removal from drought status. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

United Nations climate change conference adjourns -- The twenty-third session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 23) and the thirteenth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 13) adjourned last Friday (17 November 2017) in Bonn, Germany. Delegates from over 190 countries agreed to a 12-month engagement focusing on "Where are we, where do we want to go and how do we get there?" A list of outcomes and highlights of this 2017 UN Climate Conference was provided. The 24th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 24) to the UNFCCC will take place from 3-14 December 2018, in Katowice, Slaskie, Poland. [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP 23]

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

This Concept of the Week is repeated from last week.

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Exposure to air pollution that would include a variety of gas species and particulate matter could result in health-related problems, especially those people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in climate could increase air pollutant exposure in several ways. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in heat waves are often stagnant, which reduce dispersion and create environmental conditions for photochemical reactions that increases ground-level ozone concentrations. Increased ozone has been shown to cause reduction in lung function. These heat waves associated with stagnant weather patterns would also increase fuel combustion for power generation needed for air conditioning. Changes in climate could also affect emissions of natural air pollutants and airborne allergens.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected increases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post-traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

While a range of negative health impacts would be possible from future climate change, adaptation would likely help protect the majority of the nation's population. This adaptation would entail maintenance of the public health and community infrastructure across the nation. Adequate water treatment systems would help curb waterborne diseases, while health care facilities and emergency shelters would help minimize the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.

Historical Events:

20 November 1914...The high temperature of 28 degrees at Atlanta, GA was their earliest daily high below the freezing mark. (The Weather Channel)
20 November 1979...A blizzard struck Cheyenne, WY producing a record 19.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a record total of 25.6 inches in forty hours. Strong winds created huge drifts stopping all transportation. (19^th-21^st) (The Weather Channel)
23 November 1909...Rattlesnake Creek was deluged with 7.17 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state of Idaho. (The Weather Channel)
23 November 1943...Northern New Hampshire was in the grips of a record snowstorm that left a total of 55 inches at Berlin, 56 inches at Randolph and many other locations over 40 inches. The 56-inch total at Randolph in Coos County established a 24-hour snowfall record for the state. In Maine, Middle Dam received a record 35 inches of snow in 24 hours. (David Ludlum)
23 November 1974...Bismarck, ND was in the middle of a 5-day snowstorm during which 28.3 inches fell, the greatest on record. (Intellicast)
23 November 1983...A 24-hour snowfall record for Duluth, MN was broken with 16.9 inches. 19.7 inches fell during the entire storm, also a record.
23 November 1991...La Crosse, WI set a new record for 24-hour snowfall with 13 inches. This storm brought the monthly total to 28.2 inches, also a record. (Intellicast)
24 November 1950...The temperature at Chicago, IL dipped to 2 degrees below zero to equal their record for the month established on the 29^th in 1872. On the first of the month that year, Chicago established a record high for November with a reading of 81 degrees. (The Weather Channel)
26 November 1896...Snow and high winds hit the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley, with a Thanksgiving Day blizzard across North Dakota. The storm was followed by a severe cold wave in the Upper Midwest. The temperature at Pokegama Dam plunged to 45 degrees below zero, which remains the lowest recorded November temperature in Minnesota. (David Ludlum)

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