WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

18-22 December 2017

Happy Holidays to you and yours from the AMS Earth's Climate Systems Central Staff!

Ed Hopkins

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Happy Winter Solstice! The winter solstice will occur this Thursday morning (officially, at 1628 Z on 21 December 2017, or 11:28 AM EST, 10:28 AM CST, etc.). At that time, the earth's spin axis will be oriented such that the sun appears to be the farthest south in the local sky of most earth-bound observers. While most of us consider this event to be the start of astronomical winter, the British call that day the "Midwinter Day", as the apparent sun will begin its northward climb again across the sky. For essentially all locations in the Northern Hemisphere, Wednesday night will be the longest and the daylight on Thursday will be the shortest of the year. Starting Thursday night, the length of darkness will begin to shrink as we head toward the summer solstice on 21 June 2018 at 1007 Z.
Dreaming of a White Christmas -- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) produced an interactive national map showing the climatological probability (in percent) that a snow depth of at least one inch would be observed on the morning of 25 December based upon the 1981-2010 standard 30-year climatological reference interval. This Interactive Version of the Historical Probability of a White Christmas Map shows the ratio of the number of times that a particular station experienced a white Christmas during the interval as a probability. For example, Des Moines, IA had only 12 Christmases between 1981 and 2010 when an inch or more snow cover was observed, so the probability that residents of Iowa's capital city would have a white Christmas is 40%. Some locations across the nation are almost certain to have a white Christmas, generally along the Canadian border surrounding the Great Lakes, such as Marquette, MI (with 96%) and in New England, such as at Caribou, ME (87%). Stations at higher elevations in the Rockies also have a higher probability, such as at Flagstaff, AZ with a 65%. Sites close to the oceans typically have a lower probability, as the oceans tend to be relatively warm at this time of year. Santa typically finds tough sledding on his journey to that half of the country south of latitude 40 degrees that is not mountainous, where chances of a white Christmas fall from 50% to 20% or less. You can monitor the current snow cover across North America using a snow chart that is based upon satellite data. [NOAA NCEI News]
Environment Canada has also produced a tabulation of the Chances of a White Christmas for 45 major population centers across Canada based on data collected between 1955 and 2015.
Interesting weather data for the college football fan -- With the start of the college football bowl games, the Southeast Regional Climate Center has provided a listing of the weather history for sixteen NCAA college football bowl games that are to be played within the next two weeks across the Southeastern States. This climatology includes the warmest, coldest, wettest and snowiest days in the particular bowl's history.
New online digital portal to accessing NOAA's environmental data is launched -- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently unveiled its "NOAA OneStop" online digital portal that provides improved access to NOAA's collections of environmental data. The goal of this NOAA OneStop portal is to provide easier data discovery, greater access and visually appealing online services that are designed to meet the expectations of a wide variety of users. OneStop will provide access to the weather, climate, satellite, fisheries, coastal, and ocean data archived by NOAA. [NOAA NCEI News]

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of November and autumn 2017 weather and climate across the US -- Preliminary monthly temperature data for November 2017 from across the nation have led scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) to report that the November average temperature across the contiguous United States was 3.4 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century (1901-2000) average, making last month the seventh warmest November since a sufficiently dense national climate observing network was established in 1895. In addition, the average maximum (or daytime) November temperature for 2017 was the tenth highest on record for the month, while the average minimum (or nighttime) November 2017 temperature was the eleventh highest on record. Many of the states across the West and the South had statewide average temperatures for November that were above- to much-above average, while states along the Canadian border and along the Atlantic Seaboard to as far south as the Carolinas had near-average temperatures. The states surrounding the Four Corners (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah) experienced their highest November statewide temperatures in 123 years. In addition, five additional states across the West (California, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas and Wyoming) reported November average temperatures that ranked within the top ten on record.
Furthermore, the average temperature across the 48 coterminous states for meteorological autumn (September-November) was 2.1 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century average, making this year's autumn the tenth across "the lower 48" since 1895. All but three states in the "lower 48" had statewide average temperatures for autumn that were either above- or much-above average. Arizona and New Mexico in the Southwest along with four of the New England States (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts and Rhode Island) reported their highest autumn statewide average temperatures in 123 years.
The nationwide precipitation total for November 2017 across the country was 0.65 inches below the 20th century average, placing this past month as the 19th driest November since 1895. The majority (35) of the 48 contiguous United States had below- to much below-average precipitation totals during this past November. Mississippi had its third driest November on record, while Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma had November precipitation totals that ranked in the top 5 smallest. On the other end of the spectrum, several states in the Northwest and Midwest had above average November precipitation readings, with Ohio having a statewide average monthly precipitation total that was ninth largest in 123 years.
The national precipitation total for autumn 2017 ranked as the 39th smallest for the September-November season in 123 years. Several states in the lower Mississippi Valley along with the southern Plains and the Southwest had statewide autumn precipitation totals that were below-average. Arkansas experienced its driest autumn on record, while the nearby Louisiana had its fifth driest and farther west, Arizona its third driest autumn since 1895. On the other hand, Florida and states across the Northwest, the Midwest and New England had above-average autumnal precipitation totals. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
November national drought report -- The National Centers for Environmental Information has posted its November 2017 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately six percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of November, while six percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
Annual Arctic Report Card released -- Last week, NOAA's Climate Program Office released its twelfth annual update of the agency's "Arctic Report Card" for 2017, a peer-reviewed report of the state of the air, ocean and ice in the Arctic basin prepared by an international team of 85 experts from 12 countries, including those from NOAA. These experts have found: i.) as of the end of September, the year 2017 was the second warmest year across the Arctic basin since 1900, with surface temperatures near record levels and the rate of increase in the Arctic is double the rate of the temperature increase for the entire globe; ii.) warm summers are creating a challenge for young Alaska walleye pollack, a groundfish that represents the nation's largest commercial fishery; iii.) declines in Arctic sea ice extent are unprecedented for the last 1500 years; iv.) summer ocean temperatures are rising rapidly in most of the Arctic, especially in the Chukchi Sea to the northwest of Alaska; v.) very old sea ice, considered to be more than seven years old, has nearly vanished from the Arctic Ocean. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
More detailed information along with a three and a half-minute video (with audio) is available on this report. [Arctic Report Card]
Extreme weather events in 2016 are tied to human influence on climate change -- A report produced by 116 scientists from 18 countries around the world claims that specific extreme weather and climate events in 2016 can be associated with long-term climate change as manifest by increasing global temperatures, to a new record-high global temperature in 2016. These scientists investigated individual extreme events of 2016 that included in addition to the record global temperature, an extreme heat wave in Asia, extreme heat in the Arctic, development of marine heat waves off Alaska and Australia, the severity of the 2015–16 El Niño and the duration of coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef. Several of the reports indicated that some extreme events were not possible in a preindustrial climate. No conclusive link to climate change was found with severe drought in Brazil, record rains in Australia, or stagnant conditions creating poor air quality in Europe. The report, which is the sixth annual, is entitled "Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 From a Climate Perspective," and is published as a supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. [NOAA NCEI News] or [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Satellite detects a large concentration of atmospheric carbon monoxide from California wildfire emissions -- Data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) sensors onboard NASA's Aqua satellite at the beginning of last week show a broad area of aerosols and gases as part of a smoke plume over the eastern North Pacific Ocean off the coast of northern and central California. This smoke plume originated from the major wildfires that have been burning in southern California for more than one week. A natural-color image made by the MODIS instrument, shows the smoke plume, while a corresponding image made by the AIRS sensor maps the total column carbon monoxide concentration, with the largest concentrations offshore of the coast, extending from near Ventura to north of San Francisco. This layer was at an altitude of approximately five kilometers above the ocean surface. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Rapid onset rather than short duration represents a better criterion for identifying "flash drought" -- A researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has recommended that the term "flash droughts" be reserved for those droughts developing much more rapidly than normal, rather than considering the short duration of the drought. The scientist also discussed the importance of monitoring tools and forecasting methods, such as producing drought intensification forecasts at weekly intervals to show changes in conditions over sub-seasonal time scales. [NOAA Climate Program Office News]
Next-Generation GRACE satellites being readied for launch -- During the last week, a pair of advanced U.S./German satellites were brought to California's Vandenberg Air Force Base to begin preparations for a scheduled launch during this upcoming spring. These twin satellites are considered the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellites, as they will follow the highly successful GRACE satellites that were providing scientists with much-welcomed data for approximately 15 years before they ceased operations in mid-2017. Like their predecessors, the GRACE-FO satellites will be measuring changes in Earth's gravity field from a polar orbit of approximately 500 km above the Earth's surface. These changes in the gravity field will permit scientists to calculate how masses of water, ice, air and the solid Earth are redistributed each month and monitor these changes over time. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion & La Niña advisory outlook updates released -- Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) released their monthly "El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion" late last week. They showed La Niña conditions appeared to be strengthening through November as a distinct pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were found across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. SST values across many of these regions ranged from between one and two Celsius degrees below normal across this region. In addition, the atmospheric circulation regime across the tropics resembled La Niña conditions. Consequently, the CPC forecasters still maintained their La Niña advisory, as they envision the likelihood (with a probability exceeding 80 percent) of the continuation of the present weak La Niña conditions through the remainder of the 2017-18 Northern Hemisphere winter (December through February) with a transition to a ENSO-neutral conditions beginning during the mid to late spring in the Northern Hemisphere (March through May 2018); ENSO-neutral means that neither El Niño or La Niña conditions would be anticipated. A technical description of the forecasters' reasoning is provided by the "El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion" [NOAA Climate Prediction Center] An ENSO blog written by a contractor for CPC provides a non-technical description of how the CPC forecasters arrived at their forecast of the next several months where a La Niña event would run through the boreal winter of 2017-18 before beginning a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in spring. She noted that this will be the second consecutive winter to have La Niña conditions, a "double-dip" La Niña that is not all that uncommon. The blog also contains a discussion as to how La Niña conditions could affect the winter temperature and precipitation patterns across North America, primarily the United States. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Initial outlook for 2018 Atlantic hurricane season issued -- Last week Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and colleagues at Colorado State University issued a qualitative discussion of what they foresee as factors that should determine next year's Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The forecasters are using two primary physical parameters in their outlooks: (1.) the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation or the AMO and (2.) the phase of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). They noted that two areas of uncertainty surround their forecast for the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season. These uncertainties involve what will transpire with the status of the current weak La Niña conditions over the next several months and what trends would occur with the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO). The team plans on issuing their first quantitative forecast in mid-April 2018. They offer five possible scenarios for the upcoming season, involving probabilities of occurrence of a given level of seasonal average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity. Details of their initial qualitative assessment appear in the report issued by the Tropical Meteorology Project. [Colorado State University Report]

CLIMATE FORCING

Increased lightning activity found along busy oceanic shipping lanes -- In research headed by an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington, a connection was made between human activity and the frequency of lightning. Using data collected on the emissions of particles from ship exhaust along the ocean shipping lanes over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, along with the average density of lightning per year detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) for this region, the researchers found an increase in the lightning activity along the busy shipping lanes. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Will recent Mount Agung eruptions become a climate event? A meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center wrote an article for the ClimateWatch Magazine assessing the possibility that the recent eruptions of Mount Agung on the Indonesian Island of Bali could be considered as a climate event, capable of causing a reduction in global temperatures for several years due to the injection of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. A review is made of the climatic impacts due to three other tropical volcanic eruptions of the 20th century, including the previous Mount Agung eruption in 1963. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Oldest ice core drilled outside of polar regions -- An international team of scientists from Ohio State University and from China's Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research are analyzing a 1000-foot long ice core that they extracted from the Guliya Ice Cap on the Tibetan Plateau. This ice core apparently is the oldest core drilled outside polar regions, as it may contain ice that formed more than 600,000 years ago. (The oldest continuous ice core record recovered on Earth to date is from Antarctica, and it extends back 800,000 years). Consequently, the scientists working on this project are reconstructing one of the longer temperature records of Earth's climate history. Preliminary results indicate that the ice core from Tibet is documenting a rapid increase in temperature and precipitation over the last half-century. Ohio State University News]

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE BIOSPHERE

Conserving vulnerable coral reef habits gets assistance from NOAA's satellites and Coral Reef Watch program -- Sea surface temperature data obtained from NOAA's fleet of polar orbiting and geosynchronous environmental satellites are being used by NOAA Coral Reef Watch program to provide current reef environmental conditions to quickly identify areas at risk from coral bleaching. Coral bleaching is associated with increased ocean temperatures. NOAA Coral Reef Watch program is part of the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP) and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). [NOAA NESDIS News ]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Social and economic impacts of space weather upon the U.S. are highlighted in new report -- An environmental research firm from Maryland recently completed a report funded by NOAA's National Weather Service that is designed to help quantify the impacts of space weather upon the nation's economy. (Space weather refers to time-variable conditions in the near-Earth space environment including the Sun, solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere.) This report, entitled "Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather in the United States" studies of the impacts of space weather on four segments of the economy: satellites and satellite communications, electric power distribution, the airline industry, and users of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GPS), such as in precision agriculture, construction, surveying, and transportation. [National Weather Service News]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Historical Events:

18 December 1919...The temperature fell to one degree below zero at Central Park in New York City for the earliest sub-zero temperature on record. (Intellicast)
18 December 1989...Unseasonably warm weather continued ahead of an arctic cold front. Miami FL equaled their record for December with an afternoon high of 87 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
19 December 1911...A 24-hour snowfall record occurred in Oklahoma with 22 inches at Beaver. (Intellicast)
19 December 1924...The Riverside Ranger Station in Yellowstone Park, WY reported a low of 59 degrees below zero, a December record for the contiguous U.S. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
19 December 1967...The second heavy snow in a week brought a total of 86 inches of snow to Flagstaff, AZ with a record snow depth of 83 inches. (Intellicast) (David Ludlum)
20 December 1989... Squalls produced more heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Erie, PA received 21 inches of snow, including four inches in one hour, to bring their total snow cover to 39 inches, an all-time record for that location. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
20 December 1990...Snow fell at Santa Maria, CA for the first time since records were kept. (Intellicast)
21 December 1892...Portland, OR was buried under an all-time record 27.5 inches of snow. (21^st-24^th) (The Weather Channel)
21 December 1989...Forty cities in the north central U.S., including thirteen in Iowa, reported record low temperatures for the date. The high for the date of 16 degrees below zero at Sioux Falls, SD was December record for that location. (The National Weather Summary)
23 December 1955...The barometric pressure dipped to 28.97 inches (981 millibars) at Boise, ID, an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)
23 December 1983...The temperature plunged to 50 degrees below zero at Williston, ND to equal their all-time record. Minneapolis, MN reported an afternoon high of 17 degrees below zero, and that evening strong northerly winds produced wind chill readings of 100 degrees below zero in North Dakota. (The National Weather Summary)
24 December 1872...Extreme cold gripped the Upper Midwest on Christmas Eve. Downtown Chicago reported an all-time record low of 23 degrees below zero, which stood until January 1982, and Minneapolis, MN reached 38 degrees below zero. The afternoon high at Minneapolis was 17 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)
24 December 1963...Memphis, TN set its all-time record low temperature with 13 degrees below zero, two days after a heavy 14.3-inch snowstorm. (Intellicast)
24 December 1982...The "Blizzard of 1982" hit eastern Colorado. Denver recorded 23.6 inches of snow in 24 hours, setting a new 24-hour record. Winds of 60 mph whipped the snow into 4 to 8 foot drifts. Stapleton Airport was closed for 33 hours and most roads were impassable. (Intellicast)
24 December 1983...The barometric pressure reached of mercury (1064.05 mb) at Miles City, MT to establish a high barometric pressure record for the U.S. It was the coldest Christmas Eve of modern record. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and all-time record lows for December were reported at seventeen cities, including Chicago with a low of 25 degrees below zero, and Havre, MT with a reading of 50 below zero. Sioux Falls, SD stayed below zero for eight consecutive days. Great Falls, MT dropped to a frigid 42 degrees below zero. Dayton, OH reached 13 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
24 December 1989... Christmas Eve 1989 became one of the coldest on record. Fifty-seven cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV with a reading of 22 degrees below zero. Key West, FL equaled their record for December with a morning low of 44 degrees. Huntsville, AL hit one degree above zero. The high of just 45 degrees at Miami, FL was an all-time record for that location after a morning low of 33 degrees. It smashed their previous record for the date by twenty degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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