WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

25-29 December 2017

Happy Holidays to you and yours from the AMS Earth's Climate Systems Central Staff!

Ed Hopkins

ITEMS OF INTEREST

An Earth portrait on the recent solstice --A full disk visible satellite image was produced from data collected from the sensors onboard NOAA's GOES-16 satellite a few minutes after last week's winter solstice in the Northern Hemisphere (at 1628 Z on 21 December 2017). At that time, the subsolar point was over the western coast of South America along the Tropic of Capricorn, as far south as it can be during the year. Compare the brightness of the clouds across the Southern Ocean to the south of South America, where the local "summer" sun was relatively high in the sky, and the dimly lit clouds across Canada, where the local "winter" sun was near the horizon. [Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison]
A 24-hour animation of GOES-16 full disk visible images is also informative, as it shows the orientation of the day-night terminator as it progresses across the field of view. [CISMM SSEC Blog]
NOAA's GOES-16 has become new GOES-East -- The NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 that had been launched into a geosynchronous orbit around Earth in November 2016 has been moved from its position over the Equator at a longitude of 89.5 degrees West where testing of the system was recently completed to its new location on the Equator at a longitude of 75.2 West. This move has made GOES-16 become GOES-East, as well as officially joining NOAA's operational observation network. Prior to the move, GOES-16 provided more data and higher resolution images to forecasters, emergency managers and others during the recent Atlantic hurricane season. The next NOAA satellite, GOES-S, is scheduled to be launched on 1 March 2018. [NOAA News]
It's Sure Dark in the morning! -- Have you noticed that if you are an early riser, that mornings remain dark and somewhat dreary although local sunsets are becoming noticeably later during the last week? During the last week of December and the first week of January, many locations throughout the country will experience their latest sunrise times of the year, even though the winter solstice occurred during the late morning hours of Thursday, 21 December 2017. The exact day for the latest sunrise depends upon the latitude, so you may want to check the date in your locale from the sunrise tables appearing in an on-line, interactive service available for the entire year at most cities in the United States. The reason for the late sunrise now rather than on the winter solstice is because the sun is not as precise a timekeeper as our watches. Because of a combination of factors involved with Earth's elliptical orbit about the sun and the tilt of Earth's spin axis with respect to the plane of the ecliptic, the sun appeared to "run fast" by as much as 15 minutes as compared with clock time in November. In early December, most locations experienced their earliest sunsets. However, with the approach of the winter solstice and perihelion (the smallest earth-sun distance during the late-night hours of 3 January 2018), the apparent sun slows during December and finally lags the clock by 12 minutes in February. Consequently, a noticeable and welcome trend toward later sunsets can be detected by the end of December, especially by those residents in the northern part of the country. However, the latest sunrises occur at most locales in early January, meaning a continuation of the dark and dreary mornings for another week or two.
No additional "leap second" will lengthen 2017 -- The International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) has determined that a "leap second" will not be inserted to lengthen the calendar year of 2017. Since January 1972, as many as 28 "leap seconds" have been inserted on the last day of December (17 times) and June (11 times). The most recent insertion has been on 31 December 2016, when the IERS atomic clocks were stopped for one second just before midnight (2359Z, or 6:59 PM EST, 5:59 PM CST, etc.) to readjust the time scale based on the atomic clock to the time scale based upon the rotation of the Earth with respect to the sun. Tidal friction and other natural phenomena have slowed the Earth's rotation rate by approximately two milliseconds per day. [US Naval Observatory]
Climatology of Southeast NCAA bowl games updated -- The Southeast Regional Climate Center has provided a listing of the weather history for sixteen NCAA college football bowl games that are to be played during this week across the Southeastern States. This climatology includes the warmest, coldest, wettest and snowiest days in the particular bowl's history.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

La Niña is returning quietly -- NASA scientists have been monitoring the development of La Niña conditions across the equatorial Pacific and how the atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns associated with this "cold phase" ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) are having an impact upon this winter's weather across North America. A map displays the sea surface height anomalies across the Pacific as obtained from the altimeter onboard NASA's Jason-3 satellite during the first week of December. Animations of sea surface height anomalies show of sea surface height anomalies show 2017 conditions compared to 2010, during one of the strongest and longest La Niña events on record. [NASA Earth Observatory]
A global review of November 2017 temperatures -- Preliminary analysis of temperature data by scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) indicates that the worldwide combined ocean and land surface temperature for November 2017 tied November 2016 for the fifth highest global November surface temperature since a sufficiently dense and reliable network began in 1880. This combined global November temperature was approximately 1.35 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) average November temperature. They also found that the global ocean surface temperature was the fourth highest for any November since 1880, while the global land surface temperature was the ninth highest temperature reading for any November on record.
In addition, the scientists reported that the seasonal global land and ocean temperature for the three-months of September through November (Northern Hemisphere autumn and Southern Hemisphere spring) was approximately 0.75 Celsius degrees above the 20th century average, making this three-month average the fourth highest temperature departure from average on record.
When considering the global temperature for the first eleven months of 2017, the year-to-date has been the third warmest in 138 years, with a global combined ocean-land temperature that is 0.84 Celsius degrees above the 20th-century average. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
A global map of Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for November 2017 is available from NCEI.
According to satellite data collected by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the sea ice over the Arctic Ocean during November 2017 was the third smallest in areal extent for any November since satellite-derived ice records began in 1979. In addition, the sea ice around Antarctica had the second smallest November ice extent on record. Rutgers Global Snow Lab reported that the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was the ninth largest November snow cover in the 52-year period of record that began in 1966. [NOAA/NCEI Global Snow & Ice]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Mapping trends in nation's climate over last 30 and 122 years -- A scientist at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information has posted a blog for the ClimateWatch Magazine that shows how climate trends across the nation not only depend upon the geographical region and the season of the year, but also upon the time span considered. He provides national maps with click and drag sliders that provide comparisons in the changes in February average monthly temperatures for the entire national period of record (1895-2016) and the last thirty years (1987-2016), as well as similar maps comparing the trends in the average autumnal maximum temperatures for the two periods. Additional maps were provided that show if the trends in both examples were statistically significant. A website is available for accessing national maps showing national trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures and in precipitation for each month and season for the most recent 30-years and the entire period of record. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
New instrument to extend solar constant record sent to International Space Station -- A rocket carrying a load of research equipment, cargo, and supplies for the International Space Station was successfully launched from Florida's Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in mid-December. One of the items that was sent to the Space Station was the Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS–1), an instrument that will measure how much solar radiation reaches Earth, integrated all wavelengths of the electromagnetic radiation spectrum, defined as the total solar irradiance, and how that energy is distributed across the electromagnetic spectrum, known as spectral solar irradiance. When operational on the Space Station, the TSIS-1 should extend the space-based record of total solar irradiance, also referred to as the "solar constant", dating back to 1978 and the observational record for solar spectral irradiance that began in 2003. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Seasonal weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their new national Seasonal Outlook for the first three months of 2018 (January-March) that includes the last two months of meteorological winter and the first month of meteorological spring. Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, the southern tier of states and the Eastern Seaboard were considered to have a better than average chance of having above average temperatures during the upcoming three months. The region with the greatest probability of occurrence was to be expected across Arizona, New Mexico and southwestern Texas. On the other hand, areas along the US-Canadian border stretching from Washington state eastward to the Great Lakes should experience a high chance of below average late winter-early spring temperatures. The greatest probability of such an occurrence would be found over Washington state and northern Idaho in the Northwest, along with North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Between the region of above-average temperatures that were anticipated across the southern states and the below-average temperatures possible across the northern states, a narrow transition band where nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions could occur runs from Pacific Coast in northern California eastward across the nation to the eastern Great Lakes.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for the southern tier of states to have a better than even chance of below average precipitation for the first three months of 2018, in a region running from southern California eastward to the Atlantic Coast of the Southeast. The regions that would have the largest chances of drier than average conditions would encompass sections of southeastern Louisiana, essentially all of Florida and adjoining sections of southern Georgia. Conversely, a broad area of the northern tier of states running from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest and New England should have a better than even chance of above average precipitation running from January through March. The regions that could have the highest likelihood of wetter than normal conditions would be across the northern Rockies (northern Idaho and western Montana) and across the Midwest, centered on the Great Lakes and the middle Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, a few sections of the coterminous states running from west to east across the central regions of the nation should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for the end of winter and the start of spring.
  A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that La Niña conditions were expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2017-18, before a transition into ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation) during the mid to late spring when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions would prevail.
  A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-December 2017 through March 2018. Their outlook would call for extensive drought conditions to either persist or develop across southern sections of the 48 contiguous US, especially over the Four Corners States (where Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah meet), the southern Plains of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, and scattered areas of the Southeast, extending from Georgia northward across the western mountains of the Carolinas into Virginia. Drought was also expected to persist across the northern Plains of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. A small section of southern New England could remain in drought. On the other hand, a few areas across the lower Mississippi Valley and the slopes of the northern Rockies of central Montana could see some improvement in drought conditions. A few areas in Arkansas and Montana could possibly be removed from drought status. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.
UK Met Office global average temperature forecast made for 2018 -- During the last week, scientists at the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office (Met Office) released their annual global temperature forecast for the upcoming year of 2018. They anticipate the global average temperature in 2018 to be 0.40 Celsius degrees above the long-term (1981-2010) average of 14.3 degrees Celsius, with a range of uncertainty extending from 0.28 to 0.52 Celsius degrees around the central estimate. Although 2018 could be a very warm year, but it would probably not be the record warmest year since comprehensive global climate records began in 1880, as a moderate La Niña event was anticipated to run through the first several months of the year.
Using observational data running through September 2017, the scientists noted that this current year's global temperature was 0.75 Celsius degrees above the 1961-1990 average. [Editor's note: The Met Office still uses the 1961-1990 interval for long-term averages that is accepted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), rather than the 1981-2010 interval currently used by NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA NCEI). EJH] [UK Met Office News]

CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH

High humidity may prove breaking point for some areas as temperatures rise -- A team of climate scientists from Columbia University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies recently reported that in addition to increased air temperatures being potentially responsible for increased deaths in coming decades as killer heat waves become increasingly more prevalent, higher humidity levels need to be considered that would greatly magnify the heat effects. In some cases, the heat stress created by the combination of high temperature and high humidity could be fatal. Regions that could be affected by heat stress exceeding human endurance would include large areas of the southeastern United States, South America's Amazon basin, western and central Africa, southern areas of the Mideast and Arabian Peninsula, northern India and eastern China. [Earth Institute State of the Planet ]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Assessing how changing climate can affect a civilization -- A Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory paleoclimatologist recently discussed how his upcoming trip to Easter Island in the eastern South Pacific to collect sediment cores from the island's lakes will help him reconstruct the climate history on Easter Island over the last few thousand years and how human communities on the island have dealt with the change. He wants to determine whether natural climate change was an important factor in the demise of the Rapa Nui culture, the original people of Easter Island. [ Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Historical Events:

25 December 1988...A massive winter storm made for a very white Christmas in the western U.S. Las Vegas, NV reported snow on the ground for the first time of record. Periods of snow over a five-day period left several feet of new snow on the ground of ski areas in Colorado, with 68 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
25 December 1989...It was a record cold Christmas Day for parts of the southeastern U.S. Morning lows of zero degrees at Wilmington, NC and five degrees below zero at Jacksonville, NC established all-time records for those two locations. Miami Beach, FL equaled a December record established the previous morning with a low of 33 degrees. Erie, PA set an all-time snowfall record for the month as light snow brought the total to 60.3 inches. Tallahassee, FL had a trace of snow, the first ever for Christmas Day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
25 December 2004...It was New Orleans' first (and, so far, only) Christmas with measurable snowfall, with half an inch of snow. It was also their fourth heaviest snow on record. (National Weather Service files)
25 December 2011...The highest temperature ever recorded at the South Pole was reached with a reading of 9.9 degrees Fahrenheit. (National Weather Service files)
26 December 1909...Philadelphia, PA had its record snow to that date with 21 inches. The Delaware state record was also broken with 24 inches. (Intellicast)
26 December 1947...New York City recorded its all-time record snow with 25.8 inches at the Battery and 26.8 inches at Central Park. A record 26.4 inches of snow fell in 24 hours, with as much as 32 inches reported in the suburbs. White Plains had 6 inches in one hour with 19 inches in just 6 hours. The heavy snow brought traffic to a standstill, and snow removal cost eight million dollars. Thirty thousand persons were called upon to remove the 100 million tons of snow. The storm claimed 27 lives. (26^th-27^th) (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
26 December 1983...Miami, FL established a December record with a morning low of 33 degrees. Just three days earlier, and again three days later, record high temperatures were reported in Florida, with daytime highs in the 80s. (The National Weather Summary)
26 December 1993...Bitterly cold air prevailed across the north central states. Sault Ste Marie, MI plunged to 31 degrees below zero to set a new December record. Tower, MN reached a frigid 50 degrees below zero. (Intellicast)
26 December 2004...A massive earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter magnitude scale approximately 100 miles off the western coast of Sumatra created a tsunami that caused devastation in Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, The Maldives and many other areas around the rim of the Indian Ocean. The death toll is currently estimated at more than 300,000. Officials say the true toll may never be known, due to rapid burials. Indonesia was worst affected with as many as 219,000 people killed. The total estimated material losses in the Indian Ocean region were $10 billion and insured losses were $2 billion. (Wikipedia) (National Weather Service files)
28 December 1897...The temperature at Dayville, OR hit 81 degrees to establish a state record for December. (The Weather Channel)
28 December 1955...Anchorage, AK was buried under 17.7 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. (28^th-29^th) (The Weather Channel)
28 December 1958...Albuquerque, NM received 14.2 inches of snow to establish a 24-hour record. (28^th-29^th) (The Weather Channel)
29 December 1917...Washta, IA dropped to 40 degrees below zero, the record low temperature for the Hawkeye State; this record has been broken since by a 47 degree below zero reading in February 1996. (Intellicast)
29 December 1933...Ontario's coldest day on record as fourteen sites recorded their lowest-ever temperature, including Ottawa (-38?F) and Algonquin Park (-49?F). (The Weather Doctor)
29 December 1954...Fort Scott, KS was buried under 26 inches of snow in 24 hours to establish a state record. (28^th-29^th) (The Weather Channel)
29 December 1984...One hundred cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures. Southerly winds gusting to 50 mph helped Kansas City experience its warmest December day of record with a morning low of 60 degrees and an afternoon high of 71 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
29 December 2004...The sea-level corrected atmospheric pressure rose to an unofficial world's record for highest sea level pressure reaching 1083.8 millibars (32.01 inches) at Agata, Siberia. At the time, Agata Lake reported a temperature of -46^o C (-50.8^oF). (The Weather Doctor) This world record has superceded a reading of 1085.6 mb millibars (32.06 inches of mercury) at Tonsontsengel, Mongolia on 19 December 2001.
30 December 1880...The temperature at Charlotte, NC plunged to an all-time record low reading of 5 degrees below zero, a record that was equaled on 21 January 1985. (The Weather Channel)
30 December 1917...A great cold wave set many records in the northeastern U.S. Temperatures of 37 degrees below zero at Lewisburg, WV and 32 degrees below zero at Mountain City, TN set all-time low temperature records for both the Mountain and Volunteer States. (NCDC)
30 December 1933...The temperature fell to 50 degrees below zero at Bloomfield, VT, marking the lowest reading in modern records for New England. (David Ludlum)
30 December 1955...Anchorage, AK reported an all-time record snow depth of 47 inches. (30^th-1^st) (The Weather Channel)
30 December 1968...A new record low temperature for the state of Washington was set in two towns on the same date. Mazama and Winthrop both dropped to 48 degrees below zero. (Intellicast)
30 December 1972...The 86-foot high wave measured by the ship Weather Reporter was the world's highest measured wave. The wave was measured in the North Atlantic Ocean at 59 degrees North latitude and 19 degrees West longitude. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)
31 December 1917...The temperature at Lewisburg, WV plunged to 37 degrees below zero to set a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
31 December 1929...Greenland Ranch, in Death Valley, CA, went the entire year without measurable precipitation. (The Weather Channel)
31 December 1941...Snow that began on New Year's Eve became a major blizzard on New Year's Day, burying Des Moines, IA under 19.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)
31 December 1968...The sea-level corrected atmospheric pressure rose to a world's record for highest sea level pressure reaching 1083.8 millibars (32.01 inches of mercury) at Agata, Siberia. At the time, Agata Lake reported a temperature of -46^o C (-50.8^oF). (The Weather Doctor) This world pressure record has since been superseded by a reading of 1085.7 millibars (32.06 inches of mercury) at Tonsontsengel, Mongolia on 19 December 2001.
31 December 1978...Europe's lowest temperature on record was reached at Ust Schugor, Russia with a reading of 72.6 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. (National Weather Service files) (World Meteorological Organization archives)
31 December 1982...The year's total rainfall recorded at the rain gauge at Puu Kukui, at an elevation of approximately 5800 feet on the slope of the West Maui Mountains on Hawaii's Island of Kauai was 704.83 inches. This rainfall total represents the all-time greatest calendar year precipitation total in the United States. The rainfall total for that December was 42.00 inches. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
31 December 1989...The year and decade ended on a soggy note in the eastern U.S. Thunderstorm rains pushed precipitation totals for the year to 88.32 inches at Baton Rouge, LA and to 75.37 inches at Huntsville, AL, establishing all-time records for those two locations. Dry weather continued in California. Sacramento and San Francisco finished the month without any rain or snow, and Santa Maria reported their driest year of record with just 3.30 inches of precipitation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
The highest air pressure ever recorded in United States was 1078.6 millibars (31.85 inches of mercury) at Northway, AK. (The Weather Doctor)

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