WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

8-12 October 2018

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Albuquerque Balloon Fiesta climatology is available -- The world famous Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta takes place near the beginning of each October; this year, the 47th annual event will run through Sunday, 14 October 2018. This nine-day festival involves as many as 750 hot-air balloons and is held over the Rio Grande Valley in the Albuquerque (NM) metropolitan area at this time of year because of the cool nights, sunny days and the lack of thunderstorm activity. Because of the cool autumn nights, the "Albuquerque Box" weather phenomenon occurs, which features light winds from the north near the surface draining down the Rio Grande Valley, while winds from the south aloft permit the balloons to move up and down in this box like feature so as to hover over a small geographic area. The Albuquerque National Weather Service Forecast Office has posted the Balloon Fiesta Climatology that includes the daily temperature and precipitation data for nearly each year of the event along with a further description of the "Albuquerque Box."
Fire Prevention Week -- This week (7-13 October 2018) is Fire Prevention Week across the nation, held in commemoration of the great Chicago (IL) and Peshtigo (WI) fires that occurred simultaneously on 8 October 1871. This year’s Fire Prevention Week campaign is “Look. Listen. Learn. Be aware. Fire can happen anywhere.”
Viewing atmospheric circulation in three-dimensions -- Read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth for information concerning the average circulation in the lower and upper troposphere.

CLIMATE MONITORING

Development of global aerosol map is funded -- NOAA Research has announced funding of a project that is intended to improve air quality monitoring and aerosol forecasting through the development of an improved global map of smoke, dust and other aerosol particles. To date, global aerosol observations are sparse, leading to uncertainties in climate model forecasts. A scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder will lead this new project that is being funded as part of NOAA's MAPP (Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections) program. [NOAA NCEI News]
New satellite makes first measurements of Antarctic ice sheet -- On this past Wednesday, the laser instrument onboard NASA's new ICESat-2 satellite sent light photons toward the Earth's surface in its first measurement of the Antarctic ice sheet. This instrument, called the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System, or ATLAS, sent 300 trillion green photons of light toward Earth and then detected the few photons that returned to detect small changes in the planet's ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]
Hurricane season in Atlantic is far from over -- Even though the climatological peak in the Atlantic hurricane season was reached nearly one month ago (on approximately 10 September), the branch chief of the of the Technology & Science Branch of NOAA's National Hurricane Center cautions that the chance for a hurricane to develop is possible in October and November, because the three basic ingredients for hurricane formation still can exist into these months, namely, elevated sea surface temperature, low vertical wind shear and a pre-existing atmospheric disturbance. [NOAA NESDIS News]

CLIMATE FORCING

Wildfire aerosols appear to linger longer in the atmosphere than expected -- A research team from Michigan Technological University and the University of the Azores have been studying the chemical composition of aerosols above the atmospheric boundary layer collected at the Pico Mountain Observatory on one of the islands in the Azores archipelago. They found that light-absorbing brown carbon aerosols, emitted by wildfires in the Canadian province of Quebec a week earlier, remain longer in the atmosphere than the 24-hour lifetime previously expected. Apparently, some of these aerosols underwent less oxidation than assumed. Their discovery could have implications for climate predictions, since these aerosols may contribute more to sunlight absorption and warming. [Michigan Technological University News]
Preindustrial fires could have had an underestimated cooling effect upon Earth's climate -- An international team of researchers claim that emissions from fire activity were significantly greater in the Preindustrial Era, prior to 1750 CE, than previously thought. Consequently, scientists have underestimated the cooling effect that these aerosol particles produced by these fires had on the past climate. Aerosols generated by fires and released into the atmosphere can increase the brightness of clouds and reflect sunlight back to space, which would cause a cooling of planet Earth. This cooling could help offset increased warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide. Paleoenvironmental archives indicate that fire occurrences worldwide peaked around 1850 and fire emissions have dropped between 45 to 70 percent globally since the Industrial Revolution. [Cornell University Chronicle]
Storms are stronger because of changing climate -- A 7:27-minute video uses a group of science experts and media personalities to discuss how changing climate has been instrumental for the generation of stronger atmospheric storms. Examples of these stronger storms are cited. [Yale Climate Connections ]
A warmer climate could create more wet and dry weather extremes -- A team of scientists from Rutgers University, Duke University and Georgia Institute of Technology examined the role of stationary waves in the subtropical atmospheric flow pattern in creating more extreme wet and dry weather during Northern Hemisphere summer. These stationary waves create stationary high pressure systems with dry weather over the North Pacific and North Atlantic basins, along with persistent low pressure systems that result in wet weather over Eurasia and North America. The researchers found that subtropical stationary waves during northern summers increased from 1979 to 2013 because of increasing global temperatures. More frequent dry spells were cited in the northwestern, central and southern United States and in Mexico, while more frequent excessive rainfall events were found in south Asia, the Indochina Peninsula and southern China. The team foresees additional strengthening of the intensity of the subtropical waves as temperatures continue to increase. [Rutgers University News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

High tide flood days along U.S. coasts could be boosted by an upcoming El Niño-- The NOAA National Ocean Service's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services together with the National Centers of Environmental Information recently issued its 2018 "State of High Tide Flooding and Annual Outlook" that predicts an above-average number of high-tide flooding days from May 2018-April 2019 for various locations on the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the U.S. This flooding is also known as "nuisance flooding." Overall, high tide flood frequencies are predicted to be 60% higher this year across U.S. coastlines compared to the year 2000, especially because of a weak El Niño event that is anticipated to develop this winter. In order to generate their outlook, the scientists project the recent historical trend in high-tide flood days a short time into the future and take into account the state of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which can increase the frequency of high water levels on both coasts. Nuisance flooding takes its toll on U.S. coastal communities, by disrupting storm- and wastewater systems, damaging roads and infrastructure and straining city budgets. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

Do other planets or moons have oceans? -- Planetary scientists have been searching for the possibility of oceans on other planets or moons in our solar system. This search is stimulated by the search for those extraterrestrial planetary bodies that would have the three ingredients necessary to support life, namely, water, energy, organic compounds. To date, the Earth is the only planet to have a permanent body of liquid water on its surface. NASA scientists have found that Mars appears to have had intermittent liquid water flows in its recent past. NASA's Cassini mission indicates that a large ocean lies beneath the icy crust of Saturn's moon Enceladus. Europa, one of the four Galilean moons orbiting Jupiter, is thought to have subsurface liquid water. Scientists theorize that Europa's subsurface ocean is salty, tidal and causes its ice surface to move, creating large surface fractures that are visible on spacecraft images. [NOAA National Ocean Service Facts]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Extensive wind farms could have unexpected environmental impact -- Researchers from Harvard University recently reported that the transition to solar and wind power across the United States to reduce the dependency on carbon-based energy generation will have some unexpected environmental consequences. They claim that the transition to wind or solar power in the U.S. would require five to 20 times more land than previously thought. Furthermore, if large-scale wind farms were built, the average surface temperatures over the continental U.S. would increase by 0.24 Celsius degrees, with the largest changes occurring at night when surface temperatures increased by up to 1.5 degrees. This warming would be due to wind turbines actively mixing the atmosphere near the ground and aloft. [Harvard University Gazette]
Baseball season experienced more postponements as climate patterns change -- With the end of Major League Baseball's 2018 regular season at the end of September, a Chicago Tribune reporter wrote a story noting that 53 games had been postponed in 2018 because of the weather, which was the second most since records began being kept for postponements in 1986. While many of the postponements were due to "rainouts," 28 games were postponed due to a cold snap that lingered across the Midwest and Northeast in April. The 28 games postponed in April was a monthly record. His National League's Chicago Cubs tied the American League’s New York Yankees with nine postponed games, which resulted in creative rescheduling efforts during the late season. He attributes the unusual cold and snow in April that caused early season postponements to an anomalous position of the jet stream that brought cold air over the Midwest during the month. This flow pattern could be associated with a rapid warming of the Arctic due to a changing climate. However, he does note that the major league baseball season began at the end of March, which is the earliest on record. [The Morning Call]
Some of nation's major airports are battling rising sea levels -- In a National Climate Assessment Report made by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, 13 major U.S. airports have at least one runway within 12 feet of current sea levels. These airports would be susceptible to flooding as sea levels rise, storm surges could worsen and intense rain events could become more frequent. In addition, some airports may be on land that is slowly sinking. Flooding of the runways at these airports could result in flight disruptions or closure from storms and floods. [Minnesota Public Radio News]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Tropospheric westerly winds, north and south

The theoretical existence of upper tropospheric jet stream winds was not confirmed until being encountered by World War II bomber pilots when heading west into strong headwinds at altitudes of approximately 30,000 feet (10,000 m). Wind speeds sometimes exceeded 170 mph causing their relatively slow, heavily laden aircraft to almost stand still. Subsequently, westerly jet stream winds were found to encircle the planet in midlatitudes of both hemispheres above regions of strong temperature contrasts.

The explanation for these winds involves atmospheric mass distributions and forces on a rotating planet. Air in tropical latitudes is warmed, rises and then flows poleward, both north and south. On a rotating planet, moving air is deflected by the Coriolis effect, to the right in the Northern Hemisphere (and left in the Southern). The greater the temperature differences between warm lower and cold higher latitudes, the stronger the air motions and the faster the jet streams. The vertical temperature patterns result in the highest wind speeds near the top of the troposphere.

So Northern Hemisphere air headed northward, deflected to the right ends up headed east, a "westerly wind." In the Southern Hemisphere, southward moving air, deflected left will also go east, as a westerly wind. These "rivers" of strong upper-level winds steer surface weather systems as they move generally eastward across midlatitudes. They also provide boosts for jet aircraft headed eastward with them, but need to be avoided for going west! Of course, the full story is complex as land (especially mountains) and water surfaces interact with the heating of the air and eddies form in the turbulent flows, so jet streams wander. And with them go the storms and the weather patterns that form our short-term climate.

Historical Events:

8 October 1871...Prolonged drought and desiccating winds from the southwest led to the great Chicago fire, the Peshtigo horror, and the Michigan fire holocaust. Fire destroyed more than seventeen thousand buildings killing more than 200 persons in the city of Chicago, while on the same night a fire consumed the town of Peshtigo, WI killing more than 1100 persons. In Wisconsin, a million acres of land were burned, and in Michigan, 2.5 million acres were burned killing 200 persons. "Tornadoes of fire" generated by intense heat caused houses to explode in fire, and burned to death scores of persons seeking refuge in open fields. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
8 October 1987...Phoenix, AZ reported a record high of 104 degrees and a record tying 116 days of 100-degree weather for the year. Tucson, AZ established an all-time record with 72 days of 100-degree weather for the year. (The National Weather Summary)
8 October 1988...The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Stampede Pass, WA exceeded their previous record for October by seven degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
8 October 1993...With 1.05 inches of rain that fell at Columbia, MO, the yearly total precipitation was pushed to 55.77 inches, breaking the annual record. (Intellicast)
9 October 1903...New York City was deluged with 11.17 in. of rain in 24 hours at Central Park to establish a state record, while 9.40 in. fell at Battery Park. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)
9 October 1980...Nashville, TN reached 91 degrees, highest ever for so late in the season. Just three days earlier, a low of 31 degrees was reported, lowest ever so early in the season. (Intellicast)
9 October 1981...The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)
10-16 October 1780...The most deadly Western Hemisphere hurricane on record raged across the Caribbean Basin, killing 22,000 people on the islands of Martinique, St. Eustatius, and Barbados. Thousands more die at sea. (The Weather Doctor)
10 October 1928...The temperature at Minneapolis, MN reached 90 degrees, their latest such reading of record. (The Weather Channel)
10 October 1967...Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island experienced its wettest day ever when 4.19 inches of rain fell. (The Weather Doctor)
10 October 1973...Fifteen to 20 inches of rain deluged north central Oklahoma in thirteen hours producing record flooding. Enid was drenched with 15.68 inches of rain from the nearly stationary thunderstorms, which established a state 24-hour rainfall record. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
10 October 1979...A storm blanketed Worcester, MA with 7.5 inches of snow, a record snowfall total for so early in the season for that location. The earliest measurable snowfall was recorded at Boston, MA with 0.2 inches falling. Blue Hill Observatory at an elevation of 635 feet had 7 inches. (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)
10 October 1991...Sacramento, CA hit 100 degrees setting a daily record. It was also the latest 100-degree reading and the warmest so late in the season. (Intellicast)
11 October 1977...The wet community of Ketchikan, AK experienced its wettest day: 8.71 inches. (The Weather Doctor)
11 October 2005...A tropical depression, the former Hurricane Vince, became the first tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in Spain. (The Weather Doctor)
12 October 1979...The lowest observed sea-level barometric pressure (870 millibars or 25.69 inches of mercury) was recorded approximately 300 miles west of Guam in the western Pacific Ocean at the center of Typhoon Tip. This super typhoon had 190-mph winds. Gale force winds extended 1,350 miles out from the eye making it the largest tropical cyclone on record. (The Weather Doctor)
12 October 1982...Angoon, AK received 15.20 inches of precipitation, to set a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the 49th State. (NCDC)
12 October 2006...With 0.3 inches of snow falling at O'Hare International Airport, Chicago, IL set a new record for the earliest measurable snowfall since record-keeping began in 1871. The previous earliest date was 18 October in both 1972 and 1989. An unusually-early and intense lake-effect snow storm, resulted in 8.3 inches of snow that was measured at the official Buffalo, NY weather station on the 12th set a record for the snowiest October day in the station's 137-year history. The record did not last long, however, as the measurement on the morning of the 13th totaled 10.9 inches. The two-day event totaled 22.6 inches (57.4 cm), breaking the October record for a single snowfall event. The storm was the sixth heaviest snowfall on record. (The Weather Doctor)

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